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Archive through October 25, 2004

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through October 25, 2004

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rederob
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Post Number: 366
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Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 04:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer
Let's not worry about prettiness and move on to the action, the trend, and maintain this thread's utility.
First, POG has not fallen below $400 since Sept 13 and been over $415 all this month (yes, I know that is only 5 day's action so far!).
This is important because POG has risen appreciably in euro terms (presently euro$340). In other words, movements in the USD have had negligible impact on POG.
In AUD terms POG remains range-bound from AU$570-580 (presently AU$577.50).
Gold will stay propped with high oil prices and pick up on any "safe haven" issues that can arise. And oil is poised for at least another week of price increases while US inventories remain low and strike/sabotage threats linger in Nigeria and Iraq, let alone the Yukos dilemma in Russia.
It's all good.


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bandicoot02
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Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 05:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Heres an exciting forcast for the Gold Bulls.

Forecast gets the bull bellowing

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Brendan Ryan
Predicting the gold price is a black art, but one of the best practitioners is Martin Murenbeeld. His views are highly relevant as the metal breaks above $400/oz yet again.

Murenbeeld is a US-based economic consultant. In September last year, presenting at the gold industry's Denver Gold Forum, Murenbeeld forecast that gold would average $400/oz, with a 55% probability.

As he told this year's Denver conference: "It wasn't a bad forecast. Gold has averaged just over $400 for the year to date. Our base-case scenario had gold at $398 and the probability-weighted forecast came in at $405."

Which is why Murenbeeld's views on gold's prospects for 2005 have made the bulls restless.

His "most likely" scenario is for gold to average $435/oz during 2005 and he puts a probability of 55% on that forecast.

In support, he cites the rising level of debt in the US, combined with the likely financial fallout from the "baby boomer" generation heading into retirement in the world's major economies.

Murenbeeld points out that the US budget deficit reached $430-billion at the end of June, from a surplus of $255-billion at the end of 2000 - but says the deficit is only part of the debt equation. Household debt and business-sector debt must be added. "Total US debt has risen to nearly 200% of GDP in recent quarters. The last time the debt level was this high was during the Great Depression in the 1930s, when GDP contracted sharply," he says.

"The debt level commenced rising significantly again in 2001 and its rise has been instrumental in keeping the US economy expanding. Note also that debt servicing for the household sector is near an all-time high as a percentage of disposable income - at these low interest rates!"

Murenbeeld points out the retiring boomers will need pension and health care services, which have been nationalised in most of the world's major economies, so governments will in effect have to pay the bills.

He says the options for dealing with this situation range from putting more financial responsibility on the household sector to governments printing more money.

Tightening up on households means less income for consumption, which means "sub-par economic growth". As Murenbeeld says, governments historically have printed money to deal with war debts and similar problems.

The resulting inflation reduces the real value of debt - and that is good for real assets such as gold. Murenbeeld concludes: "In short, we are bullish on gold because we are bearish on the dollar and the pressure of debt on monetary policy."

The most fascinating part of his presentation concerns what he dubs his "crazy graph".

That tracks the trend in the gold price against the Standard & Poor's index since 1870. It shows the three stock-market bubbles of the previous 100 years, and how gold has come back to parity with the S&P index in the aftermath of the previous two.

We are now in the aftermath of the third stock-market bubble. The chart shows that, for history to repeat itself, gold could go to $5,600/oz.

It's on the basis of this analysis that various radical gold forecasters are predicting that gold will exceed $3,000/oz.

Murenbeeld is far more restrained. "We are not forecasting gold to rise to $5,600. But the chart indicates that something fundamental happened to the gold price after the two previous bubbles. Is history to be repeated in a way we cannot foresee?"

He is not alone. The latest research report from JP Morgan shows the firm has switched its view on gold from "cautious" to "upbeat", citing the US debt situation as well as high oil prices, expected stronger jewellery demand in China and lower sales by central banks.

Murenbeeld raises the issue of some Asian central banks buying gold as part of a deliberate diversification policy, but comments: "There has been no strong indication to date that Japan, China or another Asian bank is planning to add gold to its reserves."

Financial Mail







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rederob
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Sunday, October 10, 2004 - 09:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold has broken above its short term downtrend and is tracking oil higher.
Again, in AUD terms POG continues rangebound - presently $574.45 - due to AUD appreciation.
In euro terms POG is holding onto $340.
A week or two consolidating would now be handy before physical buying from India gets underway in November.
Very much setting POG up for US$450 before Xmas.
Strength in base metals underpinning silver's rise should ensure that POG downside is minimal, given POS/POG correlation.




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archer
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Sunday, October 10, 2004 - 07:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



China... and Gold
Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
October 11, 2004

Extracted from the Oct 9th, 2004 edition of Richard's Remarks

Periodically, I like to talk about the big picture. As I see it, the big picture, the fundamental picture, is that the world is producing too many goods. The entrance of China and India into the global economy has changed everything. China and India entering the world economy has meant that one-third of the world's population has suddenly become part of the global economy. And these people will work for fraction of what US and European workers will toil for. Furthermore, China has 15 million new people coming into the work force every year, and I believe India has the same. These people want to work, and they'll take any job and do it for less than we will here in the US. That's a huge problem, and it's one reason why jobs are being lost here. It's not the President's or anyone else's "fault," it's global capitalism in action. Period!

The phenomenon described above is basically deflationary. It means the price of merchandise and goods are being produced for less. And they are being sold for less. If you don't believe it, take a walk through your local Wal-Mart some day.

Ah, but there's an irony. China and to some extent India are becoming more prosperous. Their 2.5 trillion population want more of what we in the US and Europe have. In China alone, the need for basic commodities is huge -- basic commodities for China's manufacturing and for China's own use. And the result is almost a panic for basic materials -- and fuel.

Oil is now priced at record highs. Goldman Sachs recently raised its oil price forecast to an average of $50 for the rest of this year and $47 for 2005. The three-month copper price hit a high of $3.115 a tonne on the London Metals Exchange, highest since Jan. 1989. Aluminum hit a nine-year high this week, lead reached an 11-year peak and zink touched its highest mark in five years.

What's driving up the metals? In one word -- China. China is not only exporting huge quantities of goods, it is building its own infrastructure. New highways and new cities are going up all over China. China is in a frantic rush to become the next world power. China is trying to do in a few years what it has taken other nations decades to do.

Can China do it? They're doing it. During WW II thousands of Chinese men and women and children cracked rocks by hand to build Allied air fields. They built runways long enough to land the giant B-29s. They cracked rocks with hammers until their hands were bloody. Guys who flew in the Pacific will attest to that. No, I wouldn't underestimate what's happening in China today.

Where does that leave us and why? The US is now living on credit. The US is paying for its massive imports with credits and paper. And that is unsustainable. The big picture today is how long the dollar can hold up under these conditions. The game will go on as long as the rest of the world continue to accept dollars.

Today there are two viable alternatives to dollars. One is another form of central bank paper -- the euro. The other is the only time-honored form of wealth -- gold. Both the euro and gold are now moving higher.

The central banks believe they can control the world's monetary system. They print the money, and most of the world accepts it. But there's a small segment of the world that has learned the lessons of history. This is the segment that is now accumulating gold.


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vermante
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Tuesday, October 12, 2004 - 09:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold prices slipped back as the market digested last week's run to six-week highs. But traders were still bullish about further gains, they said that a firmer euro and high oil prices could see prices make new highs this week beyond the 15 year peak of $430.50 achieved in January.(source -Macquarie news)



Vermante


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lightsaber
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Wednesday, October 13, 2004 - 01:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi guys,
very interesting read.I'm wanting to go into gold and I have an account with CMC Group using CFDs.
Hopefully someone can clear up this question for me as I've had a big debate tonight with a couple of friends regarding it, if i buy say 20 lots of US Spot gold at hypothetically US$400/oz, if I use $US currency to pay for it (i.e. AUS currency converted to US currency), when it comes time to sell if the aussie currency has changed in price will this affect my return? (As the CMC software -MarketMaker- gives the option of buying in a currency of your choice.)
I think it will make a difference if I buy in Aussie currency, am I correct or wrong? The people I spoke to say it won't.

Back to the subject of Gold, any thoughts on www.forecasts.org ? Their predicate for gold is encouraging.
http://www.forecasts.org/gold.htm
except acccording to them Gold was supposed to hit US$598/oz last month :-O
Hopefully they're only out by a month ;)


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rederob
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Wednesday, October 13, 2004 - 06:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



lightsaber
POG is always denominated in US dollars.
My assumption is that the trading platform simply gives you the option of a purchase in your preferred currency - I may be wrong - so the actual amount paid would have to equal the USD price for the 20 lots.
Upon sale of the 20 lots, the USD denominated price would again be used (my assumption) and then converted to the amount of your chosen currency.
On this basis, if POG did not change but your chosen currency was up or down against the USD, you would have a similar percentage gain or loss.
I think what your friends were trying to tell you is that irrespective of how you try to think of the trade, the eventual outcome cannot change because POG is always USD denominated. So any purchase or sale decision will ultimately be reflected by the prevailing exchange rate against US currency.
In relation to POG forecasts, we can never know.
It's a bit brazen to forecast another $200 increase in POG before year's end when even tacking on another $20 is hard at the moment.
POG trend suggests a 10-20% increase year on year as a safer guide if you remain bullish.
good luck.


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lightsaber
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Wednesday, October 13, 2004 - 08:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



cheers rederrob, CMC group have confirmed this also.
And I was trying to convince my friends of this, they were certain that buying with either currency wouldnt make any difference to the overall picture - *edjiots*!

CMC group wrote:
"You can choose which Base Currency you want to use for your account. If your base currency is in AUD, then whenever you do a Gold vs USD trade, your P/L for the trade will be in USD until you request us to convert it back to AUD, before the conversion, it will be fluctuating with the FX rate. "


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lightsaber
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Wednesday, October 13, 2004 - 01:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Actually i'm the edjiot, buying with either currency wont make a difference. But the conversion back into aussie dollars will. So just like you said the purchase of US gold is subject to aussie exchange rates also, if you want it converted back at some stage.


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rederob
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Tuesday, October 19, 2004 - 11:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just a brief spurt tonight for a dalliance at $420.
Please prescribe another blue pill for later in the week, doc:




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rederob
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Wednesday, October 20, 2004 - 09:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well before New York opening it's not usual to get a big move north on spot gold.
Reason tonight is due to greenback weakness.....so far.
Could be enough momentum to push gold over $425 which will trigger some stops and ratchet POG higher still.
My view is that POG will not sustain a big push at present unless oil moves simultaneously strongly.
Come November and I reckon $450 will be well in range.




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goldbug
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Thursday, October 21, 2004 - 06:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



You can now make a list as long as your arm to justify a much higher POG.
I won't list them here as I'm preaching to the converted.
Just to say its only a matter of time....

Goldbug


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rederob
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Friday, October 22, 2004 - 08:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



goldbug
Can you shed any light:
Before yesterday's NY open gold was sold down heavily.
Again, as I type and 3 hours before open, gold is being sold down.
I would not normally notice this but for the fact POG is running in the same direction as the greenback, ie, also declining against the euro tonight.
Am I missing something?
Or are the GATA crew well and truly onto the central bankers game?


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archer
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Friday, October 22, 2004 - 08:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Pre-emptive selling rederob
Probably trying to stop the dollar collapsing till
after the elections


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rederob
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Friday, October 22, 2004 - 08:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



probably right archer
the dollar's decline, as you know well, is inevitable
so gold's rise is equally so
these little byplays are annoying
this week's been a bit too steady given greenback track downwards
maybe end of week will sort out some positions for the longer term
POO should curtail POG downside


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ingot54
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Saturday, October 23, 2004 - 12:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



An excerpt from a well-know commentator's recent article :

"First, gold has rarely traded higher than $6 on any given day. Each time that it begins a session sharply higher or trades to this level above its previous closing price, a substantial amount of selling has appeared. Bill Murphy (Gold Antitrust Action Committee, GATA.org) was the first person to note these incredible recurring incidents. I sensed that something was wrong for quite some time prior to his observation, but it was his bringing my attention to it that first stopped me in my tracks.

He rightly pointed out that this action has helped prevent drawing undue attention to gold after it began its tortuous, rising, bullish path in 2001. Second, often when the great metal was either leaving a base or when it suddenly shot higher, it would meet a wall of selling. The last several days are a good example. Gold, after trading just over $6 above the prior day’s close last Friday, was not only stopped dead in its tracks, but it moved sideways on Monday, only to be whacked on the following day when it gapped down $6, before posting a $7 loss. In the old days, when gold exhibited an explosive breakout or a sharp run-up, the momentum typically followed through for at least several days before a setback occurred. Now, almost like clockwork whenever gold trades strongly higher selling mounts, and the wind is immediately taken out of its sails."

Gold : $US422.90 as I write.

Say no more.


Money isn't everything, but it's right up there with Oxygen

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archer
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Saturday, October 23, 2004 - 08:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold has many big enemies but only a few small friends


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lightsaber
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Sunday, October 24, 2004 - 08:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I bought gold a week or two back and it went from $415 to 419 around the same time the aussie dollar went from 72c to 73c which affectively killed off my profits. How do you guys avoid the fluctuation in the aussie currency?

What would you do if the aussie dollar rose up to $1 ? If gold rose 25% in the same time frame, most of the profits of gold would be eaten up when the currency was exchanged back to AU.

I have no idea if the Forecasts.org website should have any weight given to its forecasts, but if like me you consider various indicators, it predicts the Aussie dollar to go to $1.19.
http://www.forecasts.org/ausd.htm

How can I invest in Gold without concern about the $AU rising?


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rederob
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Sunday, October 24, 2004 - 10:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



lightsaber
Buy the dips.
Or hold for much longer.
currency fluctuations are a concern.
POG in AUD is only $573 and euro$334.50 so not much change in recent weeks - in fact slight declines.
US markets are waiting for some substantive economic data before major action one way or the other.
One thing for sure is that POG seldom holds as steady as it has been for the month without a decisive move, so let's see....
Remember that seasonal offtake is higher in this quarter, supplemented by Indian physical buying as we move nearer to November, so downside momentum will be capped.
Given greenback weakness and DOW diving last week, a rapid break north is highly probable for POG: The question is if its percentage increases will outstrip that of our dollar.





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lightsaber
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Monday, October 25, 2004 - 08:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi rederob,
thanks for the info.

I just stumbled onto this article
http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliEconomicsPage.asp?PageID=%7B4D5064EB-1B31-42F 9-BF1A-50ECE955244B%7D

from Sept '04.
"We continue to expect the AUD/USD to reach 0.80 before easing back next year. "

I use CMC Group for pretty much all my trading including spot gold. What if, as a hedge against the AUD rising, one were to go short the USD vs AUD. And do this till the end of the year or until a noticable end to the rise of the AUD was noticed using TA on the graphs. This would limit any short term, or even potentially long term losses from exchange rate fluctuations.

Thoughts on this?


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rederob
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Monday, October 25, 2004 - 08:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



lightsaber
I don't trade currencies so really can't offer much help.
I did note that Comsec forecasts AUD to decline against the USD.
My view is that they will be wrong over the next 6-12months as Oz will do better due to its exposure to Asia (commodities a case in point).
POG is hankering for a substantial breakout and we are nearing the time of year this occurs.
When it does, I do believe POG in AUD terms will also appreciate well above current levels.
I suspect traders wanting to profit from POG will suffer a good deal of anxiety and heartbreak, as the rallies upward are typically slow, but the dips are at breakneck pace.
Good luck


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rederob
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Monday, October 25, 2004 - 09:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



footnote:
even before ASX opening POG is over $427 resistance
watch this space.........


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ingot54
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Monday, October 25, 2004 - 05:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Oil Value Change % Change
WTI Oil US$/bl 55.83 1.32 2.4216

Precious Metals Value Change % Change
Silver US$/oz 7.39 0.1 1.3717
Platinum US $/oz 848.4 -6.4 -0.7487
Gold US$/oz 428.5 5.75 1.3601

Base Metals Value Change % Change
Copper US$/t 2923 3 0.1027
Aluminium US$/t 1810 -6 -0.3304
Nickel US$/t 13415 -305 -2.223
Lead US$/t 885 4 0.454
Zinc US$/t 1019 -21 -2.0192
Tin US$/t 8975 -25 -0.2778

Gold up, as mooted, Rob - breached resistance alright!

Also $A up - $US.7441

Cheers - Ivan


Man stand for long time with mouth open, before roast duck fly in - Chinese saying.

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lightsaber
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Monday, October 25, 2004 - 06:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Very interesting, gold at about 429 now, breaking the 428 barrier is definately a great sign. the next major barrier will be the 432 high from April 04.
According to my charts its gapped up to the 428 area from around 425, so something is sending it high in a pretty fast way.
Wonder what the next move will be now? Someone care to take a guess? Need to time my entry into it :-)

The AUD is following up also though, am glad I got into Lihir gold last week as its share price has been benefiting from the gold rising.







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rederob
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Monday, October 25, 2004 - 06:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just back from Bulliondesk site - they reported highest ever "weekend" traffic and wonder what was brewing!!!
POG could break through previous high of $433 earlier in the year as Japanese buying has given the precious metal a kick start.
Silver is stretched with long positions, so may not run as far as gold before retracing some.
I continue to be amused by some analysts still tipping a bear market for gold - maybe they need a trip to the zoo and a picture book to help them tell the difference?
Tonight could see a stampede.

US Stocks 15-minute delayed

 
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through April 27, 2005goldbug25 27-Apr-05  01:22 pm
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through February 23, 2005muzza25 23-Feb-05  08:29 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through February 11, 2005rederob25 11-Feb-05  10:36 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through February 02, 2005chance25 02-Feb-05  08:27 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through January 26, 2005goldbug25 26-Jan-05  10:46 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through December 09, 2004justice25 09-Dec-04  12:11 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through December 02, 2004rederob25 02-Dec-04  07:42 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through November 27, 2004captain_chaza25 27-Nov-04  12:25 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through November 19, 2004ingot5425 19-Nov-04  09:29 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through October 07, 2004colin_twiggs25 07-Oct-04  01:26 pm

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