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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through November 19, 2004

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through November 19, 2004

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archer
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Post Number: 339
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Monday, October 25, 2004 - 06:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wow the US dollar is gettin smashed
I expect a big effort to minimize the damage come the morn
in the U.S or this could lead to a little panic
I expect they will try to knock gold down hard as well


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rederob
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Monday, October 25, 2004 - 08:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



$430 has gone
Next please







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ingot54
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Tuesday, October 26, 2004 - 03:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Castro bans US dollar
October 26, 2004 - 10:56AM

"Five days after falling and fracturing a knee and an arm, Cuban President Fidel Castro has appeared on television with his arm in a sling to announce Cuba will end circulation of the US dollar within a fortnight.

Castro, 78, was shown from the chest up sitting behind a table during a program denouncing US moves to tighten sanctions against his communist-run government and curb the flow of remittances and tourist dollars to Cuba.

Wearing his trademark military uniform, Castro said the issue was so important that he had to be on the program despite Wednesday's accident.

"The empire is determined to create more difficulties for us," he said, referring to Bush administration steps to restrict travel and cash flows to the island nation.

A Central Bank decree said the dollar will no longer be accepted in shops from November 8, when Cubans and foreigners will have to exchange them for a local currency with a 10 per cent commission.

Castro was obliged to legalise the currency of his archenemy in 1993 after the end of Soviet communism plunged Cuba's economy into its worst crisis."

Does this mean that the cuban unit of currency will soon be stronger than the mighty greenback? Maybe Castro is positioning Cuba to survive something bigger than all of us!


Man stand for long time with mouth open, before roast duck fly in - Chinese saying.

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archer
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Post Number: 344
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Thursday, October 28, 2004 - 01:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



He who owns the gold, makes the rules.
------------
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/ing102704.html


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ingot54
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Post Number: 191
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Thursday, October 28, 2004 - 02:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sobering article, Archer.

The USA must be wishing their brash words about the communists could be taken back!

The Chinese are very patient, and have long memories.

What could not be achieved by force, looks about to be achieved by trade!

Another sobering thought (perhaps for the Chinese) : Years ago, it was popular to say "The Japanese lost the war, but they won the peace".

Looks like everything is cyclical. Look at Japan/Nikkei etc today. Are we looking at China through binoculars?


When money speaks, the truth keeps silent. Russian Proverb

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rederob
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Post Number: 436
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Saturday, October 30, 2004 - 02:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG has been one of the more consistent performers over the last 6 months (increasing over 15%), but is now having difficulty breaching $430.
Markets are expecting some decisive action after US elections are out of the way.
Irrespective of any short term swing, the continuing northward advance is unlikely to be stemmed in the medium term as greenback weakness becomes more pronounced.
Major support lines are drawn at $420 and then $410 - any retrace below $410 could see a protracted consolidation period before tackling $430 again.
Although technically there is room for a spurt up to $340, indicators are a little stretched and another few weeks or so in the $415-430 range will give gold the strength to carry decisively above $450 in early 2005.
Extrapolating the cyclical peaks places gold at $445 in the last fortnight of 2004.




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rederob
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Thursday, November 04, 2004 - 06:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With Bush anointed leader of the free world for another 4 years gold's ascent is assured.
While gold's price in USD terms remains high, the little Aussie dollar continues to strengthen and has clipped POG to AU$560.50 and POS to AU$9.40 for the time being.
Few Americans saw the "economy" as an election issue on Tuesday, but in 4 years time that should change significantly as the greenback spirals into oblivion and Asia (largely via China) dominates world business.
What is reassuring so far this week is that gold has held firm despite trading through relatively large daily ranges.
I see a few weeks more upside before any meaningful retrace.


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rederob
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Thursday, November 04, 2004 - 10:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tonight we might get lucky:



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goldbug
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Post Number: 65
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Friday, November 05, 2004 - 01:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



maybe tonight rederob...


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rederob
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Friday, November 05, 2004 - 04:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



goldbug
The charts are looking looking good, but a little weakness of gold in past hour might not bode well:



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goldbug
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Post Number: 66
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Saturday, November 06, 2004 - 08:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Finally....


To the moon Alice...





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rederob
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Saturday, November 06, 2004 - 01:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



goldbug
What an interesting "ride" overnight.
US jobs data smashes gold price in a matter of minutes.
Then a rally over the next 2-3 hours that sets gold above psychological $430 barrier.
Finally, profit taking cuts in late before any buy-stops are triggered to carry POG over $435.
Given greenback weakness, POG's performance disappointed.
We need to see POG break well over $435 next week to generate a push to $450 before year's end.
Am satisfied with the outcome overnight but concerned that no follow-through eventuated.
Maybe just too much action in equities for the funds to get really bullish?


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greatdane
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Monday, November 08, 2004 - 09:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



1003 [Dow Jones] Spot gold quoted by TheBullionDesk at $432.35/oz, just shy of 16-year high hit Friday in NY. ANZ Bank says if gold can sustain break above $430, can't rule out hitting $450 in near future; says rise in financing needs for U.S. trade deficit expected to place further downward pressure in near term on USD, which will help push gold higher. Technical buying to provide support for spot gold, it says. (RCB)

0946 [Dow Jones] Shares in gold miners face upward pressure with spot gold quoted by Kitco at US$433.15, up almost US$3 from late Friday in Asia, as USD weakens further. Major gold miners will extend last week's advances, probably in range 2%-3% including Newcrest (NCM), Lihir (LHG), Croesus (CRS), Resolute (RSG). Among juniors, Perseverance (PSV) set to build on last week's 19% gain, Agincourt (AGC) to make fresh high, Kings Minerals (KMN) to at least consolidate at relatively high current level, ditto Bolnisi (BSG). (RCB)


Regards, GreatDane

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rederob
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Monday, November 08, 2004 - 02:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"To the moon, Alice... "

After the Eagle has landed:

One small step.... (over $437), and
One giant leap.... (to $450)


From the space-to-ground tapes:

EAGLE: 540 feet, down at 30 [feet per second] . . . down at 15 . . . 400 feet down at 9 . . . forward . . . 350 feet, down at 4 . . . 300 feet, down 3 1/2 . . . 47 forward . . . 1 1/2 down . . . 13 forward . . . 11 forward? coming down nicely . . . 200 feet, 4 1/2 down . . . 5 1/2 down . . . 5 percent . . . 75 feet . . . 6 forward . . . lights on . . . down 2 1/2 . . . 40 feet? down 2 1/2, kicking up some dust . . . 30 feet, 2 1/2 down . . . faint shadow . . . 4 forward . . . 4 forward . . . drifting to right a little . . . O.K. . . .

HOUSTON: 30 seconds [fuel remaining].

EAGLE: Contact light! O.K., engine stop . . . descent engine command override off . . .

HOUSTON: We copy you down, Eagle.

EAGLE: Houston, Tranquility Base here. The Eagle has landed!



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rederob
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Wednesday, November 10, 2004 - 08:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



New York spot gold closed at $435 and silver at $7.50 on steady greenback and lacklustre DOW.
With money flowing away from oil expect further consolidatory gains near term.
Looks like Greenspan may hold the key to rate rises, but the lid is off the gold chest and a lot more people are interested in its contents.
Nevertheless, in AUD terms gold remains steady around AU$570-575 range.


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fox_terrier
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Wednesday, November 10, 2004 - 09:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold Price Action: What Comes Next
by Chip Hanlon


The title of this article supposes that last week's move in the metal through $430 did indeed constitute a technical breakout that will allow for a big move to the upside. Even having an article titled "Gold Breakout Imminent?" recently, I'd actually still like to see a little more carry-through into the high $430's as evidence that this isn't just a head-fake, but for now we'll suppose that gold is starting what will end up as a run toward $500/ounce.

Should that rally occur, what should gold investors then expect?

For a possible answer, below is a 2-year chart of gold over the course of 2002-2003; I highlight it for a look at the action that surrounded gold's first important breakout in its current bull market at $325-$330. As can clearly be seen in the graph below, the breakout in December of 2002 led to a furious rally to approximately $390/ounce:





What I suspect many investors have by now forgotten is the sharp pullback that followed; as can also be seen, the metal retraced that entire advance, retreating back into the mid-$320's.

This is classic technical action - classic. Those who have read more than a few of my commentaries know that I'm a technical analyst first (even my fundamental conclusions are driven by what I see in the charts) and I can't tell you how many times I have seen such action. Did that pullback change the long-term bullish trend for gold? Not in the least - it merely served to shakeout short-term speculators and weak holders of the metal... the area that had loomed for so long as resistance then acted as support.

So, you may be asking: is Hanlon suggesting we're going to see a quick spurt toward the $500 level, then a pullback all the way back here to $430 or so? My answer is that the advice in my last essay still stands, that investors who don't yet own gold, but want to, shouldn't get cute in trying to save a few dollars by picking some clever pullback. Those investors need to take action and simply get in.

However, so long-term holders might have a better chance of holding through the volatility that could very well be seen during this precious metals bull market, here are some thoughts as to why we may indeed see a sharp breakout and pullback in gold much like we did a couple of years ago.

What most makes me continue to think a big run in gold is nigh is the breakdown we saw last week in the dollar (see chart below):


The break to a new short-term low below 85 on the U.S. Dollar Index is clear to see, but I think investors need to keep one more chart in mind:



A long-term chart of the dollar shows something very important: there is huge, I mean HUGE, dollar support near 80 on that same index, an area where a massive triple-bottom was built over the course of 5 years on the early 1990's.

If I'm right, the dollar's breakdown will lead it to push down toward the 80 level, but I do not believe for a second that this support zone will go down without a fight. A near-term dollar breakdown concurrent with a big spurt higher in gold is likely. But a technical pullback in gold like the one we saw two years ago, a surprisingly large retrenchment back to the $430 level, could also easily occur as the dollar mounts a counter-rally off that 80 level.

Now, I know it's hard to imagine what could allow the dollar to mount a meaningful rally from here; heck, we're even seeing some of the mainstream Wall Street firms warn that the dollar might be due for a fall... they're 3 years and a 30% decline late to the party, of course, but thanks for the warning, guys.

Indeed, this is precisely what makes me suspect we will see a powerful, unforeseen counter-rally in our currency as it reaches that 80 level -there are a few too many people joining the weak dollar party. If I don't like such sentiment when I see it in the stock market, then even as a long-term dollar bear I have to approach the developing situation honestly, remind myself that no market moves in a straight line and acknowledge that a few too many folks are promising a dollar meltdown at present.

Again, let me state clearly: it should not be at all comforting to gold bulls (dollar bears) that mainstream Wall Street analysts are noticing the trend; aside from the thought-provoking Stephen Roach, I am not aware of a single mainstream "strategist" that has an ounce of credibility on the subject. This sudden awareness suggests that it's getting late in the dollar's current down-leg and that Wall Street's analysts should, as usual, be utilized by investors as the reliable contrary indicators they tend to be. They probably need to be shaken out by a counter-rally before the next big dollar down-leg materializes; how this may play out is simply a little too far out to predict... we'll have to analyze that situation as it approaches.

For now, though, back to the implications for gold: we're certainly dealing with less chart resistance in the metal from here on up than it has had to face in the last couple of years, so maybe my thesis will prove incorrect and it'll just keep running. This thought, in fact, is precisely why my point from last week still holds. I repeat: don't get cute, get at least some exposure to gold NOW.

Keep in mind, however, that this article is being written largely in an effort to help those that want to hold gold as a long-term investment stick with it in coming months by preparing them for the volatility we will almost certainly face.



Chip Hanlon
C.O.O./Chief Domestic Strategist
Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.


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rederob
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Wednesday, November 10, 2004 - 10:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just need the euro to break thru $1.30 and gold to climb over $437 and I can sleep soundly.
Please Mr Greenspan, get it over with!


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rederob
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Thursday, November 11, 2004 - 07:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well, we had both higher gold and euro, but only fleetingly.
The die is cast.
An upside breakout is more imminent by the day:




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rederob
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Thursday, November 11, 2004 - 07:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Let's have another go tonight:



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rederob
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Saturday, November 13, 2004 - 11:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greenspan would be proud of gold's "measured pace" of increases since September.
With spot gold now settled over $437 technical resistance relies on 16 years of history to fall back on - my view is that there are forces that make the technical picture irrelevant.
Why?
Because none of the upside or downside breaks that typically affect a market hitting new highs has become apparent.
POG's RSI in the mid 60's gives upside potential, and greenback weakness of late adds to gold's strength.
Last night's positive US economic data should have crunched POG, but simply dented its temporal movements.
It "feels" as tho POG is destined for a VERY LARGE movement and just needs that "straw" to break the camel's back.
In AUD terms POG is again slightly weaker, closing around $568/oz. Meanwhile POS has crept closer to AUD$10 in ending the week at $9.86 after a greater % increase than POG.


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perler59
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Saturday, November 13, 2004 - 01:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This was updated on 4th of november but I only just noticed:

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm

Hyperinflation? $100 oil! Hmm.


I can NOT control the markets, so I MUST control myself.

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suemac
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Saturday, November 13, 2004 - 08:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Perler, a very informative and sobering link indeed. Thanks for that one.


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archer
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Sunday, November 14, 2004 - 11:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



PREPARE FOR NEW GOLD BACKED CURRENCY
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/vaughn/2004/1112.html


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ingot54
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Friday, November 19, 2004 - 08:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG US$443.10 and AUS$566.46 as I write.

As we know, a weakening $US and a strengthening $AUS should give a net POG roughly the same. The drop in $AUS terms from $572 approx. a short time ago (week), to $566 either means the $AUS is over valued, or our POG is too cheap. I have not looked at $E (euro) comparisons.

The US Gov't states it pursues a strong $US policy, yet the $US continues to slide. Now we are used to dishonesty in politics, but are they really ...

I have a little "What if ..." question.

The whole world must, by now, be aware of the massive debt the USA carries, in terms of trade imbalances, money owed to IMF, not to mention the fees/levies to United Nations gone unpaid for around 10 years, reportedly.

But ... what if the fabled piles, tonnes, heaps, mountains of gold we all believed, as children, really IS still hidden deeply, safely, inauspiciously, inside Fort Knox?

That might mean the US currency has some solid backing, even though floated from the POG. The US has been playing "You can't scare me" for too long. The debt seemingly piles up, but Nero keeps fiddling.

You'd have to be nuts to carry on like the USA, unless you had a secret weapon. They are NOT nuts, I am sure.

There have been lots of questions asked about the amount of gold still in "The Fort", but nothing forthcoming from any sources other that speculative, and the treasury is tight-lipped.

Any clues?







"Successful people do what unsuccessful people won't."

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ingot54
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Friday, November 19, 2004 - 09:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For further reading on where the gold is now ...
http://www.apfn.net/Doc-100_bankruptcy10.htm


The next site says " Present gold holdings have been 147.3 million ounces".
Read it here :http://ar.essortment.com/fortknoxky_rczf.htm


... and some others ...
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/fort-knox-depository.htm
http://www.fms.treas.gov/gold/

and here is the whistleblower's article in the Washington Post.
http://www.welfarestate.com/nwo/gold-imf.htm


"Successful people do what unsuccessful people won't."

 
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