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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through December 02, 2004

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through December 02, 2004

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squiresk
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Username: squiresk

Post Number: 149
Registered: 03-2003

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Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 04:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG - $460
POS - $8.0
POO - $52.00 ??

AUD/USD 82c ??

Kai.


"The combination of overconfidence and optimism is a potent brew, which causes people to overestimate their knowledge, underestimate risks and exaggerate their ability to control events.

It also leaves them vulnerable to statistical suprises."

Aspects of Investor Psychology - Daniel Kahnemann.




"Vah! Denuone Latine loquebar? Me ineptum. Interdum modo elebitur"

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rederob
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Post Number: 488
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Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 06:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Seems a few extra fields can be added to accommodate the more daring and wily forecasters amongst us:



email me your additions or post to thread if you wish







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fox_terrier
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Username: fox_terrier

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Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 06:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

POG 465
POS 8.10

Cheers
FT


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rederob
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Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 07:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Updated - alpha order of poster




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justice
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Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 08:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



rederob,
the 78 I quoted - that's for the USD Index fund
Stockcharts.com code USD

for AUD/USD .8195
xao 3975

yours is 0.797?

Cheers.


Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

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squiresk
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Post Number: 150
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Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 09:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I think someone has been drinking tonight :-)

Mine are a bit off too.

k.


"The combination of overconfidence and optimism is a potent brew, which causes people to overestimate their knowledge, underestimate risks and exaggerate their ability to control events.

It also leaves them vulnerable to statistical suprises."

Aspects of Investor Psychology - Daniel Kahnemann.




"Vah! Denuone Latine loquebar? Me ineptum. Interdum modo elebitur"

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rederob
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Username: rederob

Post Number: 490
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Saturday, November 27, 2004 - 09:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well, what can one expect for free - lol.
bandicoot, you are to date the most bullish and if you are "winner" I promise to send you something (usually get at least two of a few things over Xmas).
squiresk, you are POG baby bear, so far.
I note WTIC is so far only tipped in the$50's - but nobody bearish.
Maybe a column for the DOW for a reality check?




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whitesamurai
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Sunday, November 28, 2004 - 12:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Howdy folks,

You're all very bullish with your tips. Despite being a PM freak with physical to prove it, I reckon Shrub and Greensperm will pull one last rabbit out of the hat to satisfy the nervous holders of US treasury bonds. I'm going contrarian and tipping a correction before the next leg up (which might be the mother of all moonshoots).

POG $434
POS $6.84 (Ouch, but we can buy more ;-)
WTIC $45
AUD $0.78
XAO 3850

And if I'm wrong, then I'll be the happiest man in the world. If I'm right I'll probably get one of Rederob's surplus handkerchiefs to cry into.


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rederob
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Monday, November 29, 2004 - 07:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Latest updates - with whitesamurai proving that bears are lost in the forest.




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greatdane
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Post Number: 161
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Monday, November 29, 2004 - 06:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"Gold bugs and US dollar bears must be pinching themselves now that even Fed Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has stood up in support of their arguments. With only a few more weeks to go before we say goodbye to the current calendar year, economists and financial experts have started to look at their assumptions for 2005 and beyond, and they have been confronted by the fact that the US economy appears to be in a better shape than the majority of them thought possible.

At the same time, however, the country’s longer term problems have again floated to the surface, leading to the unusual divergence between a Fed that is now seen as likely raising interest rates at a faster pace than previously thought and a US dollar in rapid decline."

Full article available from aireview.com
http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=6&id=997

(Message edited by greatdane on November 29, 2004)


Regards, GreatDane

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suemac
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Username: suemac

Post Number: 208
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Monday, November 29, 2004 - 11:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



OK gentlemen, looks like I'll have to fly the flag for the fairer sex. As they say, in for a penny, in for a pound.

Gold $480
Silver $8.68
XAO 3979.80

Thanks

Susan


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rederob
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Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 07:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



suemac, thanks for looking after the "fairer sex" - wish I knew what that meant!
Seeing that there are no official rules to this exercise I thought that I would add an extra level of leniency:
While all POG/POS forecasts need to be posted or emailed by midnight tonight, you can have until midnight this Friday to add forecasts to any of the remaining fields - I note that some folk don't follow all the prices, exchange rates or indexes, but reckoned that was no impediment to a good forecast.




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archer
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Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 08:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



pog-445
pos-7.40
wtic-44.25
aud-76.25
xao-4010
Cheers rederob
---Archer---


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rederob
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Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 09:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer - bearish on commodities and bullish on Allords - very interesting!!!
Was surprised at the lack of action on gold last night, tho silver was strong - again, I am correlating POS on copper prices which are due to break all records before year's end.
Will post the "forecasting" table tomorrow


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lightsaber
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Post Number: 38
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Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 07:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With the aussie dollar fledgeling to around 77c, now could be a good time to buy US POG, if the aussie dollar keeps dropping..

Has the dollar ran its course and now its going to drop back? any thoughts...

I've done a little spreadsheet up that calculates the overall profit of buying and selling US gold taking into account currency conversion at time of buy and time of sell. If anyone wants a copy PM me.

The formula is (and if this is wrong please explain why as i've tested it thorougly):

(POG Sale price * quantity) * ($AUD (at time of buy) - $AUD (at time of sale)) + ((gold sell price - gold buy price) * Quantity bought)

This seems to work correctly and takes into account if POG doenst move in price, but the currency conversion does. It shows how much one would gain or lose.


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rederob
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Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 07:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



lightsaber, my maths is not up to testing anything.
However, I will quickly ost POGnosticant chart as stands: POG/POS tips to be in by midnight please, and end of week to add the extra fields if desired. (Goldbug, your revisions are now on the table - went suddenly bearish!!!)



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lightsaber
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Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 09:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



eheh throw me in.. what do we win? :D

POG: 475
XAO: 4050
AUD: 74 .. I couldnt offer any intelligent opinion on this as I know little about currencies.. the recent steep correction down from 80c makes me think a significant downturn is in order but to what point, no idea.


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suemac
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Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 10:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob, Could you please put me in for .768 for the AUD. WTIC??? What on earth is that one?

Thanks.

Susan


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rederob
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Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 10:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



no worries for the AUD susan
other acronym is What The Indians Cook with - OIL (aka West Texas Intermediate Crude)


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suemac
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Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 10:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



OK. Texas Tea? Lemme see! Think of a number.... Hmmmmmmmmm....... $48.50. How scientific is that?


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rederob
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Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 10:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



suemac, and i thought it was the Boston Tea Party
guess that explains the recent bushwhacking over there
by the way, nobody has needed to explain rationale for their forecasts - devine intervention perhaps favours those good to their mums over Xmas, so their tips will do best leading to year's end


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whitesamurai
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Tuesday, November 30, 2004 - 10:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Toughen up guys (and girls), we need your passion to see this bull pass through the early stages as gold goes from stealth to wealth. Of course there are going to be emotive reasons why we should scream at the world ďWhy canít you see what we see?Ē

Pity the eternal optimist. They can only see the upside.

But long live the realist who, in this forum I think exist in the multiples, can see the forest from the trees. Not all that shines gold signals the easy path to riches. We know that gold will go higher in the future Ė thatís what makes us read this stuff. But no path is so clear as the ones we wish to walk. Reality reminds us that things rarely play out as they should.

A contrarian will do well in this emerging stealth bull for gold. That person will take the good (i.e. gold at $330 US) and buy, but also be willing to take the bad (i.e. April 2004) and grin knowing that they are on a good thing despite the world telling us we should go elsewhere to seek returns on our capital.

We know we are right, but why do so many like-minded individuals jump aboard and seek the moonshot immediately?

Life doesnít work that way.

We need strong individuals who are ready to hold onto gains that we once believed were surreal. Forget your five-baggerís, weíre looking for the type of folk who will withstand the temptation to take 500% profits and still look for further upside. Thatís why Iím invested in precious metals Ė what are you in it for?

Get tough and be willing to ride the impending downside for future riches. You canít just invest and assume the world will follow you into an orgy of profit. Youíve got to know how good youíve got it to appreciate how good it can get. Thatís where the latest recruits to the secular gold bull lose the plot. And thatís why we have to tighten the harnesses and ride a potential bust to get the real ride to the moon, Alice.

Get real. The gold market has been spooked numerous times before and will be again. At this stage we are way too ahead of ourselves and far too confident that the spooks will not emerge again. In my opinion they will and only a fool would prepare themselves for the final take-off. Protect capital and donít let the spooks get your core.

Lost in the woods Robin, but seeing the forest from the trees.

Very interested to see how the Aussie economy has fallen for the same traps that the US got stuck in. Loyalty has its price it seems. The early bird may catch the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese. Trade safe and seek the longer term view.


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rederob
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Wednesday, December 01, 2004 - 11:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Although the greenback has continued its weakness, gold has settled comfortably around $450.
Seemingly nobody wants to tip the scales either way.
We know that won't last - RSI top heavy, but physical buying absorbing dips.
Some interesting reading of late from industry analysts: Generally gold to be higher, but maybe not to $500 (hmmm, seem to have heard that a year ago when $450 resistance was never to be breached).
POGnostications are as per below:




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vermante
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Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 07:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

Have you by any chance reviewed any historic data on the behaviour of gold in the face of a declining dollar and rising Dow ?

Cheers

Vermante







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rederob
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Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 07:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



vermante
Recent data shows that gold is inversely correlated to USD at 0.8 - so a very strong outcome.
I am not aware of any recent correlations against DOW and my maths is too dreadful to attempt it. (by the way we are returning to Kmart today a calculator bought for the kids that cannot add up decimal numbers eg 3.2 + 3.21 = 3.521!!!!! - made in China).
Anecdotally we know that DOW does not rise often with rising POG.
Indeed, when POG and DOW and USD are rising together there is a very good chance that either or both the DOW and USD are breaking down.
My personal view is that now we are facing a shortlived paradigm shift with the DOW and POG moving higher in tandem.
USD will bounce back a little, but will fall even further afterwards - I reckon AUD/USD parity is possible in 2006, which puts gold nearby $500.

TSX Stocks 15-minute delayed

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