You need to register separately on the Chart Forum
- see Chart Forum Help
Edit Profile Profile Help Help
Forum Rules Forum Rules Advanced Help/Instructions Advanced Help
Search Last 1|3|7 Days Latest Posts Latest Posts
Search Search Forum Tree View Tree View
   
Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through December 09, 2004

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through December 09, 2004

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»


Author Message

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
vermante
Member
Username: vermante

Post Number: 190
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 08:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



rederob,

Thanks for that , I was looking for a historic precedence. Perhaps there is'nt any. ?

The movement in the U.S dollar is tied to interest rates , and POG to the U.S. Dollar. A rise in interest rates moves the dollar up and hence the POG down due to the inverse correlation.With the improving U.S economy and interest rates tipped to rise , will the dollar strengthen ? failure to do so , could see POG explode!!

Cheers

Vermante


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
archer
Member
Username: archer

Post Number: 390
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 08:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Vermante
In the 70s gold bull gold went to 800 while interest
rates went well into double figures
Interest rates were cranked up by Volcker to stem
inflation
The coming inflation is what the gold rise is anticipating
---Archer---







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 503
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 10:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



have to agree with you archer
interest rate rises in present climate will be good for gold
can't see any tie between interest rates and USD for present
USD dipping due to US debt crisis and global view that USD value must deflate
therefore POG movements could turn on a range of variables
best thing is that funds are seeing value in gold
so physical demand will prop up POG near term, irrespective of other factors
medium term looking good
longer term (2006+) looking stronger


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
vermante
Member
Username: vermante

Post Number: 191
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, December 02, 2004 - 10:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer ,

Thanks ,I believe inflation was a contributing factor at the time. Shall check out the dollar movement during that period.

How serious is the current inflation situation , and how bad is it going to get ? Can the Fed control it ?Looking to history for some guidance

Cheers

Vermante


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug

Post Number: 71
Registered: 02-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 06:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I link a few of you out there may find to your liking..

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-12/02/content_396746.htm

whatever short term correction in the POG....as I have said here before, there is and has been a long list of strong fundamentals that support a much higher POG going forward. China's insatiable appetite being one of many.

and yes! there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow....

Regards

GB


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
vermante
Member
Username: vermante

Post Number: 192
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 08:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Attached is some historical data on Gold during its last bull runs

Some common factors - :

U.S - Inflation was running well above 5%,

In the bull gold run between Dec 1972 and August 1974 , inflation moved From 5.5%- to 14.5% . Gold moved from $63-$156 a gain of 145 % , Whilst the dow slipped from 1027 to 752 , a loss of 27%


In the bull gold run between Mar 1977 and Jan 1980 , inflation moved From 6.%- to 12.9% . Gold moved from $146-$737 a gain of 405 % , Whilst the dow slipped from 965 to 866 , a loss of 10%

.

Gold may well have its day , But I dont believe it will accelerate until the U.S inflation rate moves above 5% and the Dow starts to falter.

If POG moves upwards contrary to the above elements, then I believe there has been a paradigmatic shift in the value of Gold


Cheers

Vermante




application/octet-stream
gold -historic.xls (14.3 k)



Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 504
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 10:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



watch out everyone
we go go from goldbugs to economists if we aren't careful
there is a high correlation between the perceived status of economists and politicians!
what is interesting from Colin's observation is that average annual money supply growth is trending down, while inflation is trending up - thus the disparity increases
to me the greater concern is if money supply and inflation in the US trend concurrently upwards as it is more indicative of a deflationary environment
in such an environment it is possible for POG to also rise, with the DOW
until the US is in control of its deficits, POG will continue its climb - I think we are talking years
goldbugs have little to fear


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
whitesamurai
Member
Username: whitesamurai

Post Number: 3
Registered: 11-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 02:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It is very tempting to do the all nighter tonight to see which way gold will move. For those goldies amongst us in Australia it is always an important night as Monday's market action is influenced significantly. I'm still sticking with the short-term correction and am backing the spooks down. When it's all over we will see how the US will fall.

Did any of you ever read the posts by a guy called Hypertiger on Fool? Man, that guy had some serious views on this situation. He got his timing a little wrong but I've seen little over the past two years to contradict his assertion that the money supply problem would take down the US.

Exciting times ahead. Rob, still love ya TA matey.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
archer
Member
Username: archer

Post Number: 395
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 07:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



good greif gold to minus 12bucks
aa


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 505
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 08:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



gawd archer
i rushed to the charts to see what was down!!!!
a dose of anti-viagra
gold flaccid, never
whitesamurai will keep you honest as he is going googlyeyed tonight in case "something happens"
certainly, greenback has got to bounce back, but how much and when?
with earnings, employment, unemployment, and ISM data out tonight anything can happen as the numbers show


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
justice
Member
Username: justice

Post Number: 323
Registered: 01-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 08:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer,
The bid price is 495.50 currently.
Kitco are pulling your leg I suspect. i.e. their server is.

Cheers.Ice


Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
whitesamurai
Member
Username: whitesamurai

Post Number: 4
Registered: 11-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, December 04, 2004 - 07:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I saw what Archer did and Justice is right when he says it was probably a server problem. Gold got its dose of viagra partly thanks to explosions in Madrid and a disappointing jobs growth number in the US. The FED is still on track to raise rates on Dec 14 and Japan may weigh in on the currency markets with some dollar supporting strategies (adding to their massive pile of bad-debt imo). We are now on the dark side of the moon until Monday night (for those of us in Oz).


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
whitesamurai
Member
Username: whitesamurai

Post Number: 5
Registered: 11-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, December 03, 2004 - 02:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Found some classic Hypertiger stuff....

http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=5781&pid=329987&st=0&#ent ry329987

I wish he would come back.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 507
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, December 04, 2004 - 08:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



seeing we have degenerated to economic commentary and justice unjustifiable gold chart - which worked well contrariwise - we could be at some currency crossroads
Japan yen might want to retain parity with the greenback, but what sense does it make to do so?
why would BOJ want to prop up the dollar and knowingly buy into a debased currency when its money could better be spent elsewhere?
as whitesamurai suggests, FED rates will increase in December, and rise continuously through 2005 as the gap widens between real inflation (which, as Americans know, should be inclusive of energy costs and should exclude hedonic adjustments) and short term rates
lets see if Greenspan punts for 50 basis point this time - that would spark some interest and may now be needed given the greenback's massive decline since the last rate increase
all the above aside, we really need gold to retrace soon as its over-extended nature is just setting it up for massive profit taking prior to year's end
the sooner it cuts back to $435-440 the better


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
goldbug
Member
Username: goldbug

Post Number: 72
Registered: 02-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, December 04, 2004 - 08:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



rederob,

have to agree with you on the POG being overextended, but we are in a very different market now.
As we are in a secular bull market for POG that hasn't seen the light of day for a very long time, technicals can all but been thrown out the window.....
That said a correction is inevitable at some stage but it could very well be later rather than sooner given the state of the currency markets.

Regards

GB


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
archer
Member
Username: archer

Post Number: 396
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, December 04, 2004 - 10:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



yeah justice kitco often have errors on their charts
10 seconds later it was back to normal but i saved it
and posted the chart for a bit of fun
Sorry if it startled ya rederob{;->


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 508
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, December 05, 2004 - 12:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



given that economists and lawyers can simultaneously hold opposing views, and prefer to defend the one that delivers the greater reward, it is clear there is great complexity to what makes for the value of money
under fractional reserve banking systems that dominate world economies "inflation" is a natural consequence and deflation its nemesis
like it or not the greenback is the world's "reserve" currency
this effectively makes it a "benchmark" for other currencies
so when the US sneezes, we all catch colds
i hope this thread maintains its principal focus on gold
so if we are talking economics and its impacts, can we bring back the consequences to gold
for mine, it does seem that whether we are talking inflation, deflation, disinflation or whatever, a holding in gold makes imminent sense
although a student of von Mises' Austrian school of economic thought, i am a graduate of Misers' Austere economic practices (cum marriage)
may i kindly remind readers that we today have gold at its highest in 16 years
and it is truly a blessing as we near Xmas

nil agit exemplum, litem quod lite resolvit


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza

Post Number: 1045
Registered: 02-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, December 05, 2004 - 04:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Red Rob

There is also another sea change you may also consider

With a falling US$ the EURO and others paper monies rise
In the Good old days There was really only the ONE BIG Buck The USD or GOLD

Since the launch of the Euro with nearly a total economy the size of the US hard currencies dealers held 80% USD and 20% EURO with all the others taking a few percentage points off each

Maybe we will soon see 50% each-way betting?

Could the rise of China as a major Economy see the
Betting Spread change to 30% each major and 10% allocated to the little Battlers?

In the meantime the precious metals will always be in demand for Industrial their uses and give us time to think things out,I hope?
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
robbo
Member
Username: robbo

Post Number: 31
Registered: 01-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, December 06, 2004 - 09:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Attached is an interesting Fear Index published by James Turk

http://goldmoney.com/en/commentary-print.html


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
whitesamurai
Member
Username: whitesamurai

Post Number: 6
Registered: 11-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, December 07, 2004 - 08:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



One for the gold bulls... Certainly not written by an English teacher, but this is one guy we have learnt not to fade. Interesting that he sees a blow off top followed by a market crash for the DOW. Almost there. Gold stocks will be hit before their rebirth.

Well, at least this guy set a strict time-frame. Now at t-48 hours. I don't believe it, but read on for the viagra take on the golden bull.

http://www.biiwii.com/jrm.htm


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
archer
Member
Username: archer

Post Number: 409
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 08, 2004 - 08:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Lessons from history-
Money--Funny, Scary, Paper Money
http://www.strike-the-root.com/4/herman/herman35.html


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
justice
Member
Username: justice

Post Number: 332
Registered: 01-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 08, 2004 - 11:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Time to head back up now please.
the last gold retace


Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
whitesamurai
Member
Username: whitesamurai

Post Number: 7
Registered: 11-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, December 08, 2004 - 11:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG 439.30
POS 7.09
WTIC 41.46

Ahh, the release is astounding. As it is written, the major correction is occurring. Now we wait for the bottom and get ready for blast off. The upside from this correction will be wonderful - but you have to be strong to hold on. Only Archer and Samurai left in the race. Will the gold and silver balloon remain abaited until the end of the year?

Hang on folks, now we see if the DOW double blowoff top forms and then go short the DOW and long gold.

Gold absolutely plummeting as I write. This is massive. Upside will be even more massive.

See you all in the aftermath.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 515
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, December 09, 2004 - 05:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



sorting wheat from chaff
the weak hands folded and the strong remain in play
as gold is punished for holding over-bought
in AUD terms POG is not a basket case, remaining near its range-boung $580 level ($578.80 as I type)
POS hit harder in AUD terms, falling from over AU$10/oz to $9.38
providing POG can consolidate in the $430-440 range (preferably closing over $435) over the week its case for a push to $475 early into 2005 will be exceptionally strong
this is the retrace we had to have - as Keating would say were he a goldbug
all is good!







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
justice
Member
Username: justice

Post Number: 333
Registered: 01-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, December 09, 2004 - 12:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Although I've read a few versions of the "three peaks and a domed house" analysis before but I've found a link that projects some sort of a time frame for the upcoming mayhem which may be of interest to some readers.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/12/three_peaks_and.html


Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

 
Other Threads  
Last PosterPostsPagesLast Post
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through September 24, 2005vermante25 24-Sep-05  12:58 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through September 17, 2005ingot5425 17-Sep-05  05:17 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through August 17, 2005rederob68 17-Aug-05  10:26 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through June 18, 2005rederob25 18-Jun-05  10:14 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through June 11, 2005rederob74 11-Jun-05  10:51 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through May 13, 2005vermante25 13-May-05  01:46 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through April 27, 2005goldbug25 27-Apr-05  02:22 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through April 07, 2005goldbug25 07-Apr-05  06:39 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through March 17, 2005goldbug25 17-Mar-05  09:59 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through February 23, 2005muzza25 23-Feb-05  09:29 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through February 11, 2005rederob25 11-Feb-05  11:36 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through February 02, 2005chance25 02-Feb-05  09:27 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through January 26, 2005goldbug25 26-Jan-05  11:46 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through December 02, 2004rederob25 02-Dec-04  08:42 am

Threads by Last Post Time:

First Previous 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 Next Last

Administration Administration   Log Out Log Out    

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»