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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through January 26, 2005

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through January 26, 2005

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fox_terrier
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Post Number: 291
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Thursday, December 09, 2004 - 12:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi rederob,

Couldn't agree more. At the chance of appearing smart with hindsight i was going to post the following last night but time got away from me and then bed was calling.

I believe the smart(short term money) always leads the action (don't need to be Einstein to figure that out). That's why i have been watching my gold index to see when the US dollar would bounce. We all know nothing goes up or down forever. The following charts told me this correction in $US and POG was close.






I am still in HIG as a long termer. I could have sold at 0.60 and rebought today but i am a long termer not up with the quick in and out scenario. I hold thru the corrections (still grappling with adding to my position during corrections) if they are just that, corrections.I do everything off weekly charts.



I believe 430 will hold but as always time will tell.

Cheers
FT


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fox_terrier
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Friday, December 10, 2004 - 08:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

Check out "Waaaay too many dollar bears" by Chip Hanlon on the Safehaven website.

As i stated in my previous post it was obvious a correction was coming, what is not obvious is the magnitude and length.

As chip states everyone is currently bearish on the dollar but there is strong support at 80 on the $US index which is where it is at present.

FA always lags TA and it is only now after the dollar has been falling for 3 years that everyone realises it had to drop because of fundamentals. As he states when everyone is bearish supply dries up and demand has it easy.

Think about it: if you're bearish on an asset, you're not going to hold it, are you? Once everyone is bearish, it means that the selling of that asset has already occurred, that there are no people left on the sidelines to push that holding lower. The inverse is true at tops.

Short of some calamitous occurrence we are in for a meaningful correction over an extended period. What does extended mean? keep an eye on the charts.

I have always been something of a contrarian which has caught me out at times because i could not believe how long greed can extend a buying frenzy.

However i now am confused as it is very hard to see where the majority view is. It is all very well to say because something is headlined in ???/ that is the popular view and well it may be. However when you read more and hear the views of traders on forums such as IC you realise there are a lot of people that don't express the "popular" opinion and then it is hard to act as a contrarian when you are confused as to what the contrarian view is.

I hope this makes sense and provokes some discussion. Questions welcome.

I now think 465 by xmas for POG may be a little optimistic.

Cheers
FT







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fox_terrier
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Friday, December 10, 2004 - 08:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



However due to:

have always been something of a contrarian which has caught me out at times because i could not believe how long greed can extend a buying frenzy.


i could be totally wrong. Read "Hero or Goat" by John Mackenzie on the Safehaven site.

Cheers
FT


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justice
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Friday, December 10, 2004 - 08:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Let's just put back the prognostication date to end January or if that fails then February or March. Certainly no later than April. Maybe Dubbya will find another Good war Dickie can _really_ make money in sooner rather than later.


Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

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rederob
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Friday, December 10, 2004 - 08:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



fox
goldbugs have a tendency to be naturally contrarian, and severely biased to POG upside
popular media and "expert/analyst" opinion are very different
fact is that there are not many gold experts that are not goldbugs
so popular media is unlikely to pander to "unpopular - possibly "out there" - biased" views
and as there are few popular media experts we "hear" a lot of nonsense, as far as I am concerned
this makes understanding gold a bit of a conundrum
if gold is not money, why can it be valued as a store of wealth?
the answer seems to be that it is actually more value by those that discredit it!
I say that because gold's detractors far outweigh supporters - so who is pressuring POG higher?
I think it more exciting following something that continues to defy logic than else in the markets
especially when our weird views can be regarded as sensible commentary from time to time - serendipity rules, OK


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rederob
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Friday, December 10, 2004 - 09:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ice
got cold feet?
the table is always available for reviewing, so we can pluck it out from time to time to prove how wrong we can be!
if there is interest again, after rewarding the "winning" POGnosticator appropriately, we can next punt at end of quarter outcomes - so in January we could seek expert opinion on prices at 31March 2005.

in terms of POG overnight, i think the outcome was pleasing
POG effectively closing near/above very long term resistance
silver on a slippery slide, tho
best of all we go from overbought to oversold within a week and that's a great fillip
anyone think that gold cant jump $20 in 3weeks?
moreover, next rise should be through resistance - so $460 is an easy target


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justice
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Friday, December 10, 2004 - 09:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Cold feet?
No. Time just runs slower for some than other.

I'd be interested to see the table again.

It was a table of what we wanted the prices to be. :-)

I'm patient. But I see no point in riding the wave down at all. A little settling in the PM stock prices is required.
Oilers will lead the way.

Ice


Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

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justice
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Friday, December 10, 2004 - 09:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



fox_terrier,
As I understand Mackenzie, he thinks the POG is going to shoot up and gold stocks to collapse together with the rest of the chare market. I can't see that. I can't grasp his timeframe at all. Z day is tomorrow? When does the domed house appear according to this thesis - where even is whitesamurai's blow off double top.
Mackenzie has again served to confuse me again on the timeframe in mind, however I await his predictions for tonight's share market collapse with baited breath... and an ice-cold beer.


Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

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greenspansgout
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Friday, December 10, 2004 - 09:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Really very interesting to note the forecast from the Financial Forecast Centre on gold. Very very interesting indeed. I post on a forum where one of the very best chartists I've seen has been posting charts calling a dramatic reversal in gold's price for a while before it happened. He also posted a chart from the Financial Forecast Centre to support his case, as all the Goldbugs were giving him curry about his predictions! Unfortunately I can't include the chart from the FFC, but can point anyone reading this to the forum where I saw the chart if they like.

Also interesting to note commentary by Tim Woods at CBS marketwatch on gold - he has been correct at several stages on the gold market.


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rederob
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Saturday, December 11, 2004 - 12:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



greenspansgout
Financial Forecast Centre table is as per below - updated at 21 November:


The ill-fated POGnosticators is below:


Weekly chart is a picture of strength:



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rederob
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Wednesday, December 15, 2004 - 11:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



greenspansgout
A few posts disappeared into a cybervoid.
Now to the action:
Fed interest rate hike of 25 basis points did not do unto gold as others would have us believe, ie, knock it off its perch.
Indeed, less than a day later POG has jumped over $4/oz and is sitting over $439 as I write.
As POG has had no difficulty maintaining itself above $435 a breakout over $440 is very much on the cards with a possible end of year push to new highs.
What seems more certain is that the quieter times we typically expect around this time of year are less likely to eventuate, with most metals complexes poised for another upside run in the coming fortnight.
Add to this oil's strong consolidation in the $40-45/bbl range and the jigsaw pieces make more sense.
While most POGnosticators were overly bullish (so it seems right now), any breach of $455 could see strong follow through as it confirms the excellent technicals now in place for our lustrous marvel.


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justice
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Thursday, December 16, 2004 - 09:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Overnight, GWB payed lip-service to the strong USD policy. (They believed me about the weapons of mass destruction - heck they still do, they voted for me didn't they Dickie!) "All things dull will we bright again" he said. "It's all just an Al Qaeda plot to subvert the US Economy and it's God-fearing peoples: and we won't let it happen! We're on the job. We'll be printing more and more dull green dollars pronto. If we have to we'll let the EU help print more dull green dollars besides."
We'll tell the people that our fiat debt shines brighter than gold assets- and they'll believe us because we have God on our side and most of the people voted for me - didn't they Dickie."


Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

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archer
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Thursday, December 16, 2004 - 09:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Go easy on him ice
Dubya has become my favorite comedian
rrr


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justice
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Thursday, December 16, 2004 - 10:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear GWB,
I'm not too hard I hope, but I do blame the pretzel I was originally barricking for though. :-)


Faber est suae quisque fortunae.
Each man is the smith of his own fortune.~ Appius Claudius Caecus

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goldbug
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Friday, December 17, 2004 - 08:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Higher Chocolate prices = Higher POG

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=509&ncid=509&e=15&u=/ap/20041216 /ap_on_bi_ge/hershey_prices

My guess for next year is that we will be seeing a bit more of this....higher raw materials feeding into higher prices.

Inflation, Inflation, Inflation......

Good for gold...you bet ya!!!


Regards

GB


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rederob
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Saturday, January 01, 2005 - 11:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well done goldbug, archer, whitesamurai and lightsaber.
Although the greenback headed south towards year end, so did POG.
In AUD terms, POG is around $560 while silver is near $8.70 - still reasonable results for a year that saw Oz currency appreciate significantly.


May 2005 bring all readers a lustrous aura.


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goldbug
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Sunday, January 02, 2005 - 01:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I must admit that I was looking for a higher POG, but with the end of year looming a price of anything above $430 US would have been bullish. We got that and with all the fundamentals still in place this could be a very good year for the POG.
Happy new year to all the regulars and not so regulars.

PS Buy gold/gold shares and hang on for the ride of your life......

Regards

GB


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rederob
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Tuesday, January 04, 2005 - 08:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold..... ouch!!!!!



Funds have chosen the thin markets of Xmas/new year to bail out of precious and base metals.
In the case of gold, look for support around $420 and failing that at $410 which is also the 200dma.
Technically we are not far off a big rebound. In fact, we are better placed than any time in the past 6 months.


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archer
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Thursday, January 13, 2005 - 10:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kitco quotes for 23 May 2009
kkk
What price MMN?????


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vermante
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Thursday, January 13, 2005 - 02:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Arthur

Pretty nifty-any chance of an electronic copy of the Financial Review of the same date ?


Cheers

Vermante


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rederob
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Saturday, January 15, 2005 - 03:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Colin's Diary today summarises:
GOLD
New York: Spot gold rallied briefly but failed to penetrate resistance at $430 and has now fallen back to $422.00. Expect a test of the $400 support level and possibly the 1-year low of $375.

Never discounting any possibility, so long as POG bounces from $375 the game is not lost.
And any test of $400 is not a sign to throw in the towell.
What is moot is POG's present firmness on recent dollar weakness:


Certainly some downside to POG is, chartwise, on the cards.
Some of this is due to greenback strength near term although I doubt if it has enough get up and go to take POG as far down $400/oz.
On the plus side for gold is the medium/long term expectation of most experts that the greenback is due for more and more weakness, thus tripping POG upwards.
Also, severe recent liquidations on COMEX has removed downside pressure and increased the potential for a strong bounce on any "sign" - typically euro giving the greenback a bath.


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goldbug
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Wednesday, January 26, 2005 - 09:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Predicted the short term moves of POG is a mugs game.
It looked poised for a move higher today to at least test $430 but it was sold down. Why?

Today we had oil up to a shade under $50.
We also had a white house forecast for the budget deficit of $427Bln this fiscal year....a record by all account, at least Dubya is good at setting some records..
This should have been a negative for the dollar...but not today oh no the dollar strengthed.....i guess they need their dollars to buy all their overpriced (NYSE) stocks.

I try to look at the big picture and not to focus on the day to day moves but when you see days like today you do wonder who is selling gold....Over the last 3 years of the present uptrend i have seen this time and time again, just when all the stars were lined up and gold is poised to move higher it is smashed down.
I know i should just shut up and go away...but we are supposed to have free markets and it doesn't appear to be that way...

For those interested that haven't already come across GATA...here's the link.
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/campaign.html

I'll get back in my hole now..


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rederob
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Wednesday, January 26, 2005 - 10:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



goldbug
The longer term trend remains intact.
There seems a a degree of day to day manipulation in POG and POS, but greater forces are now driving gold higher.
Not to dizzy new highs, but nevertheless higher.
As you note, US record deficits will have an impact - later rather than sooner.
So gold is in part a waiting game and one of counter disaster (market-crash wise).

Clearly showing in the weekly chart is gold's adherence to channel - some downside possible, but uptrend has a tilt at $475 over next 2-4 months.
Less happily, AUD POG is down to $550, so our gold equities are slightly weaker.
On the euro front, POG is at $325 and indicating firmness.
Near term oil price increases typically pull gold a little higher. With NE USA experiencing coldest winter in decades and more to come later this week, POO over $50/bbl looks inevitable: So POG's downside remains constrained.
On the greenback front, further strength cannot be ruled out, so a near term dip in the euro to 128cents is possible.


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ingot54
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Wednesday, January 26, 2005 - 10:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Goldbug - wait a couple of days and observe.

I have noticed there is a lag lately between fantastic news, and the market's reaction.

Two recent cases : STO - everyone knew the results of Santos'find, but the market did not move in response immediately. Eventually it did.

ZFX - I posted the Chinese Zinc smelter shut down, Rederob posted the warehouse Zinc drawdowns, but it was a few days before Zinifex's price came alive.

I'm not talking about the small improvements, but the real jumps one expects with such news. I think there is degree of hanging back by the bigger players at the moment - may reflect caution in financial markets that lack real direction and commitment - in a word - uncertainty.

Colin's Trading Diary has been a good map lately.







Goliath was the best thing that ever happened to David. (Doug Weed)

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goldbug
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Wednesday, January 26, 2005 - 10:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks rr
its just frustrating watching the day to day action when its so damn obvious that the POG is being managed (manipulated)
POG should be considerably higher than were we are now instead of this mickey mouse $420....

As you say we are in the channel and heading higher its just painful to watch sometimes.

I think i need some more of that goldtipped tea to calm the nerves.

 
Other Threads  
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through October 06, 2005justice25 06-Oct-05  05:23 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through September 24, 2005vermante25 24-Sep-05  11:58 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through September 17, 2005ingot5425 17-Sep-05  04:17 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through August 17, 2005rederob68 17-Aug-05  09:26 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through June 18, 2005rederob25 18-Jun-05  09:14 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through June 11, 2005rederob74 11-Jun-05  09:51 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through May 13, 2005vermante25 13-May-05  12:46 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through April 27, 2005goldbug25 27-Apr-05  01:22 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through April 07, 2005goldbug25 07-Apr-05  05:39 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through March 17, 2005goldbug25 17-Mar-05  08:59 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through February 23, 2005muzza25 23-Feb-05  08:29 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through February 11, 2005rederob25 11-Feb-05  10:36 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through February 02, 2005chance25 02-Feb-05  08:27 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through December 09, 2004justice25 09-Dec-04  12:11 pm

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