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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through February 11, 2005

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through February 11, 2005

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greenspansgout
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Username: greenspansgout

Post Number: 5
Registered: 12-2004

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Wednesday, February 02, 2005 - 08:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No problem, RR. Did a placement not too long back, so you will note there seems to be an overhang of this - the recent price spike followed by the sell-off back into the low 30's as the placement holders snaffle a quick 20 to 30% profit. I've bought and sold it once, and will be looking to get get into it again, more than likely on a more permanent basis.

Cracking management as well, given what they've done in a short space of time with the company.


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goldbug
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Post Number: 81
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Friday, February 04, 2005 - 06:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



was that a bear jumping out of the woods........
oh no, its only Gordon Brown (an uncanny resemblance though)
http://store.ticklespop.com/gorbrowbearb.html

Will Gold from the IMF vaults be sold or revalued???







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archer
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Post Number: 471
Registered: 11-2002

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Friday, February 04, 2005 - 08:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gordon Brown the clown
Sold most of Englands gold right on the lows


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goldbug
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Friday, February 04, 2005 - 09:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





yep, your right archer another striking look alike....

what a plonker (Brown that is......)


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goldbug
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Friday, February 04, 2005 - 11:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



i should add that the above photo was taken the day after he sold off the UK's gold......


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vermante
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Friday, February 04, 2005 - 02:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Several months ago the consensus appeared to be go long Gold , short the Dow.

Is it time to go long the Dow and short Gold ?

Cheers

Vermante


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goldbug
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Post Number: 84
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Friday, February 04, 2005 - 03:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



no


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archer
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Friday, February 04, 2005 - 03:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Depends what you see coming Vermante
For me its rising inflation for many years to come
Everything is going to rise(with pullbacks of course)simply
because dollars are going to become worth-less
Your mission-should you chose to accept it-is to find an
investment category thats going to rise enough to keep you
ahead of inflation
You know where my money is
As far as im concerned the IMF sell gold for the poor story
is a final desperate attempt to hold it down
Notice you dont hear about central bank selling anymore
because most have now changed their minds and are keeping
their gold and in fact many are now buying back gold
The DOW chart may look good but when adjusted to foreign
currencies its gone nowhere since the August 02 low
Australia wont be immune to these problems either
Look at whats happened to the price of resources and the record quantities countries like China and Japan are buying
from us but still we are having record deficits almost on a monthly basis
In a lot of categories Oz is in even worse shape than the
U.S and when this becomes more obvious investors will start
shunning our dollar just as they have the $U.S the last few
years
End of rant


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greenspansgout
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Friday, February 04, 2005 - 12:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Chance, you've got me. I am Packersoldkidney on another channel. Good picking.

YAM: anything is possible in this market at the moment - which is to say it could happen to YAM, but I think there are better prospects for your money roundabouts. A rising tide lifts all boats - the one lifting at the moment is ADY, which has a very slim connection to gold - but shows you what is possible with a quality resource and a sniff of full finance for the project.


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rederob
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Saturday, February 05, 2005 - 07:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hard to ignore gold's technical weakness, especially failing miserably overnight to hold onto its consolidation phase over $420/oz:

In AUD terms POG is under $540 (closing at $536.50), while in euro terms it remains comparatively stronger at $321.50.
Only a brave soul would now be tipping POG's bottom - surely a breach of $410 is imminent, and $400 looming.
But why the continuing decline?
Gordon the clown's suggestion of an IMF gold selloff to reduce poverty in third world countries and the Fed rate increase were triggers.
Yet the finger was Greenspan's, and overnight he pulled it back and fired a salvo into gold bulls.
It seems he now sees the current account deficit correcting; a curious change in tack from his earlier statements.
It matters not how this miracle cure to US twin debts will come to fruition - a sucker punch is called a sucker punch because we have many suckers to land it on.
After another dreadful US employment figure (25% below consensus forecasts) which again show declines in manufacturing employment, and weaker consumer confidence, you would typically bet on the side of a weaker greenback.
But in the land of economic contradictions the new paradigm is to hold a contrary view if it's the patriotic thing to do.
Where are we left?
Expect POG's 200dma of $411 to be broken before the drunken stupor wears off, and find some gold equities or ingots you would like to hold.
As gold will again rise and there are only a few opportunities each year to take advantage of its peaked weakness.


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goldbug
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Saturday, February 05, 2005 - 12:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Economy-in-uncharted-waters-Greenspans/2005/ 02/05/1107476832477.html

scary stuff ah!

greensperm admits there is no precedent to the current economic environment.....

this is justification enough on itself to at least own some gold / gold shares.

Regards

GB


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vermante
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 06:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Arthur ,

We could be heading into a period of boom economic growth and gold may go into hibernation during this period. .

You may wish to read - The next great bubble boom - H Dent.Makes for interesting reading . It may not eventuate , but it pays to be alert to the possibilities.


Extract from BOOK add

"Synopsis:

For over fifteen years, New York Times bestselling author Harry S. Dent, Jr., has been uncannily accurate in predicting the financial future. In his three previous works, Dent predicted the financial recession of the earlynineties, the economic expansion of the mid-nineties, and the financial free-for-all of 1998-2000.

The Next Great Bubble Boom -- part crystal ball, part financial planner -- offers a comprehensive forecast for the next twodecades, showing new models for predicting the future behavior of the economy, inflation, large- and small-cap stocks, bonds, key sectors, and so on. In taking a look at past booms and busts, Dent compares our current state to that of thecrash of 1920-21, and the years ahead of us to the Roaring Twenties. Dent gives advice on everything from investment strategies to real estate cycles, and shows not only how bright our future will be but how best to profit from it.

Dent gives us all something to look forward to, including:


The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade
The Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially ashigh as 20,000 by 2009
Another strong advance in stocks in 2005, with a significant correction into around September/October 2006
The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008,lasting until late 2009 to early 2010
Dent's amazing ability to track and forecast our financial future is renowned, and here he takes that ability to the next level, showing not only what our economy will look like but also howit will affect us as individuals, as organizations, and as a culture. From the upcoming wealth revolution to the essential principles of entrepreneurial success, the book describes a new society where economic and philanthropicdevelopment go hand in hand.

In The Next Great Bubble Boom, Dent shows not only how the economic growth of the late 1990s was a prelude to the true great boom right around the corner but how all of us can reap its benefits."

Cheers

Vermante


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goldbug
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 07:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings Vermante,

Couldn't agree with you more that we should be alert to all possibilities.

When the head of the Fed comes out and publically states:

The dramatic advances over the past decade in virtually all measures of globalization have resulted in an international economic environment with little relevant historical precedent.7

As a foot note it states:

7. To be sure, the rapid globalization of the latter part of the nineteenth century exhibited many of the characteristics of today's international economy. But the far lower level of technology and the existence of the gold standard adjustment process renders that period of little use for current comparisons.

There you have it.

The period that most resembles todays goldilocks economy had a gold standard.
Today we do not have a gold standard.

So then what mechanism today is going to slow the amount of paper in the system, whos accountable??

I'll tell you.....its a paper trail that may blow up at any time.....derivatives on derivatives on derivatives.

I would at least suggest you read his speech.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/speeches/2005/20050204/default.htm

Greenspan was or is still is an advocate of the gold standard (not sure)

http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html

The bit at the end is the crux:

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

###

Alan Greenspan
[written in 1966]



As for Mr Dent......

Regards

Goldbug


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goldbug
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 08:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold can be your best friend in a crisis.....
Just ask Malta...

http://www.timesofmalta.com/core/article.php?id=177077


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vermante
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 08:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings Goldbug,

Greenspans comments have been read and noted.Thank you

If you are holding gold or gold equities , I hope POG rises.

In my case I dumped my last gold shares when POG dropped below $418.

If I have made a mistake , I will hop back on when the up trend resumes.

Cheers

Vermante


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goldbug
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 09:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Vermante,
Shame on you.....
Regards
GB




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archer
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 03:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The reason McFarlane warned Australians today to expect rising interest rates for the near future????????????
Not that dreaded "Flation" word {;->


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archer
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 04:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200502/s1297350.htm
------------------------------------
Rates rise more likely, RBA warns
Home and business borrowers in Australia have been put on notice again, with the Reserve Bank (RBA) signalling an increased chance of higher interest rates in the period ahead.

In its quarterly statement on monetary policy, the central bank is forecasting a pick-up in inflation over the next two years, albeit quite gradual.

The bank says inflation will reach 2.5 per cent this year and 3 per cent next year - the top of its desired range.

It says continued pressure on raw material prices, evidence of capacity constraints in some sectors of the economy and reports of higher employment costs constitute a risk that its inflation forecast could prove too low.

The Reserve Bank has revealed that at its monthly meeting last week the board noted that the likelihood of further interest rate rises being required in the month ahead has increased.

Ross Gustafson, the executive bond manager at funds management firm Tyndall, says there has been a sharp reaction on credit markets.

"I think they got the message pretty clearly today," Mr Gustafson said.

"We're seeing some liquidation of, particularly the hot-money positions, and we've seen the market in the short yields - say three-year bonds, rise from this morning about 10-15 basis points.

"They're pricing in a much greater probability of interest rates hikes within the next few months."


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rederob
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 09:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



dear suffering gold bugs and disinherited readers
this week ushers in "reversal"
as the trend is for only 8 weeks downtrend
then recovery
sometimes less than 8 weeks
not usually any longer

are the planets aligned?
you betcha!

greenback strongest in weeks
dow doing an absolute bolter
fed rates upped
peace and democracy in the middle east
commodities being bought cheap
oil affordable
and the media cranking out boom time headlines

might have missed a few plusses
so with things so good
the bottom can't fall out
can it?

you betcha


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chance
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 09:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ah do believe Red, the hard times is a commin', an' I ain't gonna be no april fool.

I is a true believer.

An' I gonna put my faith in the yella metal and use all dat green paper with the evil eye an' pyramids an' autographs of dead masons, for starting fires.

The moon is in urxxxx, well you know where the moon is, an' in eight weeks I will be ready.

Yassir

I believe.


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goldbug
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Tuesday, February 08, 2005 - 12:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Does anybody have an opinion on the IMF sales / revaluation of gold and its effect on the POG?

I'll kick it off by suggesting that it would be in the interest of the IMF to have a firm to strong price when and if the time comes that they either sell or revalue to give them more bang for their buck so to speak.
I would be interested in hearing peoples opinions.

Regards

GB


Follow the Yellow Brick Road

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archer
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Tuesday, February 08, 2005 - 02:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The International Monetary Fund issued a statement some time ago, which read as follows: -

"Gold is an undervalued asset held by the I.M.F., and provides a fundamental strength to its balance sheet. Gold holdings provide the I.M.F. with operational manoeuvrability both as regards the use of its resources and through adding credibility to its precautionary balances. In these respects, the benefits of the I.M.F.'s gold holdings are passed on to the membership at large, to both creditors and debtors. The I.M.F. should continue to hold a relatively large amount of gold among its assets, not only for prudential reasons, but also to meet unforeseen contingencies."

Such remains the policy of the International Monetary Fund. It requires an 85% majority of the Members of the I.M.F. for this policy to be changed. The U.S. holds 17.3% of these votes, giving it a veto over such decisions. It seems unlikely that this policy on gold will allow even the real value of these assets to support debt write offs. Such statements surely put the issue to rest.

On the surface, Chancellor Brown, having been responsible for selling half of the United Kingdom's gold, at prices 35% lower than present ones, for the U.S.$, which has since depreciated another 35% against the Euro, seems to have learned little from the experience. Put simply, gold and debt write-offs are two separate issues that should not be joined in this way. It will be surprising if this International Monetary body would want to follow Mr Brown's path.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/phillips/phillips020505.html


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rederob
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Friday, February 11, 2005 - 05:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Finally some good news, with the greenback taking its cyclical slide almost on cue:
NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures bolted higher but held just below key resistance on Thursday morning, tracking a short-covering bounce in the euro, as the dollar failed to capitalize on news the massive U.S. trade gap narrowed in December, dealers said.
Silver, platinum and palladium prices got a boost from gold's gains.

April delivery gold at the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division rose $2.50 to $417 an ounce by 10:09 a.m. (1509 GMT), dealing from $413.10 to $417.30 -- its highest mark since Tuesday.

Dealers said gold continued to largely follow the euro's moves, with the metal climbing off a prior 4-1/2-month low, but prices still kept to a $412-to-$418 consolidation band.



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goldbug
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Friday, February 11, 2005 - 07:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

blue skies ahead......
not with the usual bumps though...
technicals and fundamentals pointing to an attempt at the previous highs from the 80's ($500's)
Healthy moves overnight from XAU back above the 90 level and the HUI doing a bolter back above 200...

regards

GB







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rederob
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Friday, February 11, 2005 - 10:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



calling all vermantes
calling all vermantes
calling all vermantes
the uptrend is about to resume
take your seat
gold bug is offering blue sky views
tickets available from archer

he's got a ticket to ride,
he's got a ticket to ri-hi-hide,
he's got a ticket to ride, but he don't care.
my baby don't care, my baby don't care
(with thanks to J.L.)

 
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