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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through September 04, 2009

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through September 04, 2009

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kate
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Post Number: 792
Registered: 04-2005

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Wednesday, January 09, 2008 - 08:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Captain C

I would be grateful for some advice. During 2007 if there was a correction in our share market it was accompanied by the gold and oil price dropping and our currency losing value. This was very handy as it differentiated a minor pullback from a proper correction.

This appears to have changed, the gold and oil price appear to have disconnected from XAO movements, although the relation between currency and XAO is still to early to judge in this correction.

What happens in this sort of situation?

Regards
Kate


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captain_chaza
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Wednesday, January 09, 2008 - 06:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie

I wish I knew how to answer your query

All I can say is Blame it on the Banks
Who would have expected such a down turn

Our Resource stocks / Commodities are in fine shape

Which leads me to ask you
Why are you concerned with The XAO?

I honestly assumed you could pick the eyes out of that Over-designed Clumsy Ship Design and only fly the Better/More Seaworthy sails

Please note dear Katie
We seaman don't have to sail what is dished up to us as "The Market" by Captain "S"tupid and "P"oor

THEY DO!! WE DON'T!!!

THAT IS OUR EDGE!

I always laugh at those who try to figure out the XAO /XJO instead of each class of sail to hoist
I can only conclude that they hav more money than sence

OR

They are enticed into a form of Leveraged betting they CAN"T WIN!

What was the point in having Banks when almost every chart said /inferred "Stay-Away"

This is when we get onto the "Greatest Lie of All"

LIE LIE DAMN LIE #1

Design a DIVERSE Set Of Sails /Portfolio to withstand all Sea and Weather conditions!

Salute and Gods' speed


(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on January 09, 2008)







"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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captain_chaza
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Wednesday, January 09, 2008 - 09:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy SCO Katie

Whatever was then Was then

What we face now is a Major Sea-Change

With much regret I must inform you that the Yanks have "Woken Up"

The rest of the world thrived on the Benefits of A BIG Buck
The Yanky Ego has always been so great they always made the necessary accommodations

Now more than ever before in my memory I hear some very learned advisors are recommending a Much smaller BIG Buck to help exporters

Our world's have always known this but the Yanks have Ego's like no other when it comes to their beloved BIG Buck
You know the ONE that says "In God We Trust"

Be Sea-Smart, Be Agile and most all Be Swift in this Major Sea-Change

Crikey! It is hard to accept that our last 3 generations respect for the BIG Buck will now change for All-Time

Crikey! I hope the little Aussie battler and the Canadian Mountie can stand up to the Status Of "Leading Currencies"
Albeit shared with that mongrel of a Euro

I have never travelled to Japan so I have no Idea of their mind-set
Maybe Officer Lafee could elaborate more on the Yen with all her special /individual moods and tantrums

To me it is a simple matter of "Changing of the Guard"
Only the Yanky Ego is damaged

I have always learnt the Hard way
"The Global Exchange moves on regardless of any Ego"

Salute and Gods' Speed



"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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kate
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Thursday, January 10, 2008 - 08:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Captain C
I'll post a response tomorrow.

Regards
Kate


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goldbug
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Friday, January 11, 2008 - 04:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



``They have to save the economy and let inflation go,'' said Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York. ``We are in a recession-like situation right now.''


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kate
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Sunday, January 13, 2008 - 08:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Captain C
Apologies for the late reply. It appears that the US will lower rates substantially. In theory this should lead to a rally both in the US and here. With everyone and their dog telling the Fed and Bush to act quickly I expected the stockmarket to shoot up. It did exactly the opposite. So, maybe the sharemarket is no more for now and the only way traders of all sizes can make money(long)is to bet on gold.
Perhaps I have answered my own question now that I have thought about it.

Do you really think the AUS and CAN$ will be included in a basket of currencies? You are more optimistic than me. I would have thought the Rouble more likely.

As for trading, you are completely right about having to be nimble and ignoring the XAO.....most of the time. However right now it is calling the tune. My recent scans have been very disappointing and I think that in itself speaks volumes.

Regards
Kate


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goldbug
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Monday, January 14, 2008 - 05:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





I've seen that before ...

Regards

GB


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rederob
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Thursday, January 31, 2008 - 07:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



goldbug
Fed cuts have given gold another fillip - not that gold needed 2 rate cuts in as many weeks.
I fear the Fed will follow Greenspan's lead and cut rates to the odd single digit, expressed most purposefully in numerically bland perpendicular form (akin to your above-charted gold spikes).
It seems the only question now is if POG hits $1000 this quarter, or we wait until the last quarter.
My preference would normally be the last quarter.
However, while some think it's never different this time, I think it is.
I cannot recall such globalised interventions in the finance/banking systems: All attempting to stem an imminent US recession.
My suspicion is that this will be one of the most controlled "crashes" in market history.
A tsunami of debt is washing across the waters, in tidal surges, leaving an indelible red watermark creeping ever higher.
Although Charlie Ahoy has his own precious views on gold, it clearly has again shown itself to have safe haven status.
Perhaps, for those looking at POG and not gold producers, there is an opportunity to pick up equities relatively cheaply - given that POG is claiming new highs, while equity holders are claiming cash conversions.
Lihir remains well placed to profit massively, with low cash costs and high output, and is some 20% off its November peak - when POG was around 10% less than it is today!


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captain_chaza
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Thursday, January 31, 2008 - 09:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Welcome Back Officer Red Robert
You smooth talker,You

You have been sadly missed over the last 3 months by so very many

I have always understood you to be a fair weather sailor

It's a real pity to see Gold is as good as Uranium is bad

Salute and Gods' speed




"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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tryhay
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Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 01:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Some interesting negative divergence on gold lately ~ what is up (or down) as the case may be?

Daily chart:

gold


Happy trading DYOR

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tryhay
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Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 03:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



More to the point another site's view (Golddrivers.com) on the matter ~ expressed better than I did above:

Interesting Gold price index chart: Gold price looks to have entered the 'Danger Zone ~ caution Will Robinson'

Sell Zone

Gold continuous gold contract: Good assessment on short term direction IMO. Some suggest downside risk is further than that..

Au Analysis


Happy trading DYOR

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captain_chaza
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Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 04:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Officer Tryhay

That's Great work!

I gave you 5 stars!


The problem with bottoms and tops is there is always a bottom price like 0.00$ and the Sky is the limit-up with regard to Highs

That interpretation is like seeing the world as Flat IMO

You can trust me on this one although I can't prove it to you, Officer Tryhay!
"The World is Not Flat!"

What I mean is
"Unlike Bottoms, Tops are Dynamic" as if in an Expanding Universe which I can't prove either

Salute and Gods' speed



(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on February 10, 2008)


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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ingot54
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Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 04:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Tryhay

It is always going to be difficult equating the price of GOLD.ax with the USD spot price. The issue to cloud your windows is the current volatility of the AUD.

While it (the AUD) seems set to crack parity with the USD this year imho this will offset any gains for GOLD.ax. You are better to look for an index to trade based on the spot price.

It is clear because here we have the spot price of gold closing at an ath ("closing ath" not outright ath) yet the price of the GOLD.ax is down from $105 to $101.24. The inverse can happen too - if you have a correcting AUD vs USD then provided gold spot is holding, your GOLD.ax can rocket.

There are polarising viewpoints like never before on the spot market direction.

To form an opinion and thus gain some edge, I recommend looking at the drivers of price.

POO would be a strong horse to have in the stable.
Stablemate would be USD strength (Index)
DOW direction
Inflation
Employment figures
Balance of trade
And of course you then have to get back to the numbers that drive the USD and DOW

One of the difficulties with which investors/traders are confronted is the lack of transparency of data emanating from the Fed Reserve and associated agencies.

They certainly don't instil confidence in their dodgy figures - every month they release "favourable" figures which are revised to the downside during the month.

However given the record of the 1923 inflation in the German Mark, and the rocketing price of silver and gold at that time, it is not difficult to draw parallels between the printing of fiat currency then and today.

The decision to fight deflation at the expense of inflation raging away (they gave themselves those choices - there were others) means that the spot price of gold should appreciate favourably in coming weeks.

Unsure about dips and corrections, but this seems to be the strongest route.

Interesting that there is an exponential increase in the open interest in gold and silver, and many more LONGS than SHORTS. Have not got this week's figures yet.

GOLD.ax seems to be following a channel, but as I mentioned ... this is at the mercy of too many other variables.

gold


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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ingot54
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Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 04:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have to agree with my estranged friend Tryhay.

The fundamental problem I see with such arbitrary settings as "Danger Zones" is that they depend on all the variables being the same now as they were between Dec 2005 and Sept 2006.

Er ... hmmm.

I realise the top chart is "Relative Gold" which I take to mean "Corrected for all variables" but to me this is complicating the issue needlessly.

It should be as simple as supply/demand/safe haven.

The charts are very nice though.


The gold_guru


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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tryhay
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Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 05:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Very good Capt & Ingot, if the MACD, RSI and Slow-sto (and the index method in the top chart) mean anything then some caution must be soon exercised (though I don't subscribe to the view of sub $750 Gold anytime soon), however I agree with the Fundamental view that gold still has higher to run later this year (perhaps closer to September/October). It would be much easier to be a follower of the gold price but I think a big move is approaching, and at least these days they do not burn ppl at the stake for having an opinion that challenges the orthedoxy.

I find the argument about AU$ & US$ Gold price a bit tedius Ingot

ingot54 wrote on Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 05:38 pm:

my estranged friend Tryhay




..........I'm not exactly sure how I became an estranged friend - but it could have had something to do with the DJIAA index chart ~ do you remember ingot? - ..

for obvious reasons, it is better to buy gold in US$ and auzzie shares seem to respond in sinc with US$ gold price ~ except for the one you display Ingot (which is the only share to have has Auzzie gold backing its price - yes Gold warrants from WA also have Auzzie gold backing) ....


Happy trading DYOR

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ingot54
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Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 07:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



English Is a strange language Tryhay.

The absence of ONE comma can have consequences!

I was actually addressing you ABOUT my estranged friend, Captain Chaza.

To my knowledge, I can not recall ever having had an issue with you (or your posts) in any respect. (Can you refresh me on the DJIAA chart? I did not take offence at any comment - or I may have remembered the incident.)

Captain Chaza called off our engagement because I had the temerity to not only point out forum rules, but (oh, I can hardly bear the memory) ... but also to point them out in red large letters.

I am still reeling from being crossed off his Christmas list, and I also assume I will not be attending the bah mitzvah (or the bat mitzvah for that matter) of his grandchildren. I recall him saying something in the past about these traditions, but I don't want to upset him or his kind of people by saying too much about their private ceremonies.

Oh, how I hate alcohol! Turns good men into boys!

Ruins friendships and Christmases!

All I have left is his running mate now, and even he and I are on "need-to-confer" terms. Oh the ignominiousness of it all. How the human heart can break! He's not even answering his phone, or I would try to call!

Anyway, I cope by plunging myself deeper into my work!

I did have a good look over that site you used for your charts - there are actually some very strongly positive ones for gold further down. I have book-marked it. My current trade is in the Silver Index with an upside of around 15% to 30% ... that will adjust as it plays out, due to the USA economic factors I mentioned above.

I did not mean to attack your reasoning in any way Tryhay - I actually found it refreshing to follow, as well as the fact that you do not follow the paid journalists like the lamb off to the slaughter.

Regarding the GOLD.ax trades I would agree that you will get exactly the same gains by trading either ONE chart or the other - there should be no (or very little) arbitrage. All the exchange rates change is the VALUE expressed in either currency.

But, I was trying to explain (my way of expressing things can sometimes be a bit unorthodox) that if the value of gold is static - say fixed at USD$900/oz - and the AUDUSD is .9000, the AUD value of gold will be AUD$1000. This will be reflected in the GOLD.ax chart at the 100.00 level.

If the AUDUSD varies then the AUD price of gold will too.

GOLD PRICE USD ........ AUDUSD RATE ......................... AUD GOLD PRICE
USD$900.00 ............... USD$0.9000 ............................ AUD$1000.00
USD$900.00 ............... USD$0.8797 ............................ AUD$1023.08
USD$900.00 ............... USD$0.9201 ............................ AUD$ 978.15

The complexity arises when the spot price is changing at the same time as the AUDUSD is on the move. Although the GOLD.ax price can quickly be calculated at any time simply by dividing the current spot price by the current exchange rate, and then taking 1/10th of it as the chart level traded.

I'm certain you already understood those things, but I added the calc's for those readers who may have been wondering.

I apologise for causing you any disquiet by the way I referred to Captain Chaza in that previous post. Unlike my ex-fiance, you do not appear to have a combative and contrarian view, not are you easily offended.

With best wishes

Ingot

PS - Could you please put in a good word for me next time you are speaking with the Captain. A lot of water has flowed under the boat, but alas his middle-eastern culture is so stiff-necked that he can not forgive. Those people from the Euphrates are like that.

Anyway, here is a picture of a previous friend during his days as a student of the Talmud. Halcyon indeed.

Ex


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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tryhay
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Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 08:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



NP Ingot.

The literature suggests the HUI is being manipulated and so the correlations between gold price & HUI (further down that website) are skewed ~ perhaps providing a more favourable view than currently justified.

The written word is imperfect and one needs a thick skin to survive in life and this site! But there is certainly value in the sharing of ideas - thanks Colin....

looks like an interesting week coming up


Happy trading DYOR

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smallworld
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Sunday, February 10, 2008 - 11:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tryhay,
If you want to short Gold, you have to have the gold chart and US dollars chart side by side. Any further fall in the US dollar would ruin your short position.


Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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tryhay
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Monday, February 11, 2008 - 06:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi smallworld

Thanks for your advice.

It is much easier to short gold shares and I'm checking out NCM (<https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=316907&post=13 0908>) The NCM chart looks to be forming the right shoulder of H&S & if the share price action breaks through the neckline then it will be time to top up the shorts. Currency (US$ & AU$) and gold price action make it too complex as you suggest....


Happy trading DYOR

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sway
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Monday, February 11, 2008 - 08:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



tryhay Re NCM short

I'll be watching this with great interest, because according to my Weinstein-tinged view, NCM commenced Stage 2 in Sept 07 after breaking $24.50 resistance.

Sway
NCM


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kate
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Monday, February 11, 2008 - 10:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Re NCM

Talk of Newcrest selling off their Australian assets.


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sway
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Monday, February 11, 2008 - 11:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate
Is that NCM or Newmont? http://business.theage.com.au/newmont-considers-australian-mine-asset-sale/20080 210-1rd0.html

Sway


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kate
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Monday, February 11, 2008 - 11:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sway, my apologies.
Very careless.

Kate


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sway
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Monday, February 11, 2008 - 11:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate, That's OK.

PS> Haven't heard from tryhay yet about his NCM shorts.

Sway


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tryhay
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Monday, February 11, 2008 - 01:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Sway,

I'm not avoiding you but just otherwise engaged.

Needs more than one line answer so later

mark


Happy trading DYOR

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goldbug
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Wednesday, February 27, 2008 - 06:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Red ... all the '000's
POO .... 100 Gold 1000
Who would of thought .....


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rederob
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Saturday, March 08, 2008 - 06:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gordon Bug
Yes, we have closed in on $1000 quite quickly.
Of greatest interest is the steady ascent - from a daily perspective (the monthly charts clearly show overbought).
Present climb should go to around $1150 on my reckoning before any major retrace.
Although with oil powering upwards in tandem, who knows how much blue sky is ahead!


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goldbug
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Reach For the Stars




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morton
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Saturday, March 15, 2008 - 08:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Does anyone have historical data for the price of gold in aussie dollars? (csv file back to 31/3/2000)

thanks.


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rederob
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Sunday, March 16, 2008 - 12:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Both gold and oil have added an extra digit to their closing prices.
The race is on as to which doubles and replaces "1" with "2" upfront.
I see that occurring around 3 years hence for oil.
Gold will run a more speculative race.
For the moment, I can't see gold at $2000 within 3 years as I suspect it will blow off significantly before getting there.
On the other hand, I can see silver arriving at $50 on fundamental grounds within 5 years, but not doubling in the next 3.
I guess I will have to revisit this post from year to year to see progress!


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captain_silver
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Sunday, March 16, 2008 - 07:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Morton,
You may find these sites of some help http://www.the-privateer.com/g-charts.html
http://www.chartsrus.com/


C.Silver

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tryhay
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Saturday, May 17, 2008 - 08:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




sway wrote on Monday, February 11, 2008 - 08:56 am:

I'll be watching this with great interest, because according to my Weinstein-tinged view, NCM commenced Stage 2 in Sept 07 after breaking $24.50 resistance.




Well three months later it seems we were both right ~ simply retesting the breakout

Weekly chart: Nothing a little negative divergence could not have solved .... NCM looks to be getting back on track now

ncm

not buying in just yet though as gold still has not clearly demonstrated a breakout IMO (but must be very close now)

Gold daily chart: fake out perhaps?

gold daily


Happy trading DYOR

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sway
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Yes, sorta. The WS purist should have sold on the first drop below the 30w WMA, eg at about $33 and would still be out. I agree though, that gold stocks look ready to resume the run up. POG back above US$900 overnight.

Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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goldbug
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$1 Oi Oi Oi

Regards

The Bug


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rederob
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Monday, August 24, 2009 - 08:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Colin
There are 2 threads with the same name "Anyone for Tea?".
Can they be somehow amalgamated - or simply subsume the other into this?
Also, Archer has posted a long term gold chart into the ASX stocks - short term/TA thread, and it belongs here, not there.
This post can be deleted after reading as is only for housekeeping.


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goldbug
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Thursday, August 27, 2009 - 10:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Which way will it go ?

Regards

The Bug


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rederob
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Thursday, August 27, 2009 - 11:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This is a game of patience.
Gold is in its ascendency, with strong time the last quarter.
Having waited the odd 5 years or so, another month won't hurt?


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goldbug
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Thursday, August 27, 2009 - 11:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A forecasted $US 9 000 000 000 000 US government budget deficit over the next decade.

What will that do to the all mighty $US ?

Its still early days Rederob, in this once in a lifetime MegaBull for GOLD.

However they will try and throw everything at it, but will ultimately fail.

Regards

The BUG


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archer
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Friday, August 28, 2009 - 11:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hay rederob
good to see you back-hows things
Looks like a real tug o' war going on in gold atm
Should see some sparks fly soon
Sentiment is pretty low in the u.s atm regarding gold
which is a good contrary measure


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sumamura
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Friday, August 28, 2009 - 01:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



pl have a look at weekly levels of commodities. just check and let me know if they help.weekly commodity levels


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rederob
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Friday, August 28, 2009 - 08:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello all
Yes, US debt will see the greenback troubled to return to previous highs, which will be positive for gold.
The other aspect of critical importance has been the resilience of gold prices during the recent bull market.
What appears to have occurred is a series of regular and short rotations from gold to equities to gold etc, etc....
In other words, there has not been - in recent months - any sustained period of significant gold price weakness, despite some quite remarkable weekly equity price rallies.
As archer has posted (elsewhere might I add!!!) the price of gold runs up some strong rallies on a biennial basis, commencing around this time of year. Should this pattern repeat, we are looking at a very healthy gold price in early 2010.
At a personal level, Lihir nowadays represents the largest portion of my portfolio. My intention is to sell it down (should my strategy work) 15 weeks after POG has breached $1000. However, as Lihir is now very profitable, it may introduce a dividend payout, possibly propelling its price even further north, while at the same time making it less desirable to sell off. Well, that's my plan!


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goldbug
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Friday, August 28, 2009 - 10:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ALERT ALERT ALERT.....




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baysider
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Hello goldbug

Can I ask your opinion on the best way to play gold please. Individual stocks such as NCM (held) or the GOLD ETF?

Thanks
Baysider


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goldbug
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Tuesday, September 01, 2009 - 02:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Baysider,

Depends on your timeframe for investing and your view for the price of GOLD.

My opinion for GOLD in $US is that it will increase over the next decade to a price that will surpass anyones expectations.

Any producing company with a solid resource base, low costs and unhedged will do.

OR you could buy the physical.

Hope this helps.

Regards

The BUG


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goldbug
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Wednesday, September 02, 2009 - 10:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bring it ON ....



Regards

The BUG


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rederob
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Wednesday, September 02, 2009 - 11:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well Mr Bug, we have the perfect storm, and the plan is about to reveal itself (says he of some unremarkable faith).
The "correction" in US markets is coinciding with traditional gold strong periods - especially Indian buying of physical - while the greenback is dilly dallying.
All we need to tip gold over $1000 in the very near term is greenback weakness. Should that not happen soon, a failure of equity markets is the likely catalyst to see, again, cash rolled back into gold.
I would normally like to draw oil prices into the equation. I fear, however, that oil is running its own race, on completely different terms for the time being.
In another thread at this site I have tipped gold to be substantially higher come Christmas. In a fashion it's probably regarded by many as a lay down misere. But markets are fickle and forecasts are piffle.
The fundamentals for gold are robust and the short term action is, as far as I am concerned, quite incidental to my thoughts. Until I see the fundamentals change, I will continue to regard gold as a relatively safe play - albeit unexciting for the greater part.


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goldbug
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Thursday, September 03, 2009 - 09:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

For your viewing pleasure ...



Regards

The BUG


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rederob
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Thursday, September 03, 2009 - 11:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bug
If we were to assume a repetition of patterns then a $300 peak over the previous high would be conservative.
In other words we are looking at a $1350 base level "high" within 6 months.
I'm certainly tipping a figure well over $1200 with further upside largely dependent on whether or not US stimulus spending can get its economy back on track. My view is that it will take many years. However I do not believe this present rally in gold will go beyond the first quarter of 2010, if that.


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rederob
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Friday, September 04, 2009 - 09:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold is up about 5% in the past 3 days.
Impressively it ignored the global equity market results to push ever higher, suggesting that the money in equities is on a string.







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goldbug
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Friday, September 04, 2009 - 02:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

Breakout Aug 03
370 - 460 = $90 (x)

Breakout Sept 05
450 - 720 = $270 (3x)

Breakout Sept 07
680 - 1070 = $390 (4x)

Breakout Sept 09
970 - 1420 = $450 (5x)

Spot the pattern

Regards

The Bug

 
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