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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through March 17, 2005

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through March 17, 2005

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rederob
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Username: rederob

Post Number: 630
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 09:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



gb
was that a picture of vermante above as POG rose last night?
what was that?
aye aye


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vermante
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 09:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

Far off the mark - Maybe it's your reflection in the mirror.


No wide eyed trader here. Gold shares are just just another trade . I have been "taken out " on certainties before . I am well within my position size and risk parameters. Objective of emotionless trading .




Cheers

Vermante







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archer
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 10:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



February 22, 2005

A signal event has occurred this AM. The Central Bank of South Korea has announced its intentions to diversify out of its US $ foreign exchange holdings. South Korea has been a significant purchaser of US Treasury securities. It is the fourth largest $ foreign reserve holder in Asia. This has had the immediate effect of pushing all other currencies up (bid) and forcing the $ down – quite drastically. The $ is in decline and the potential exists for a "run" on the $. In this event gold ($432 +$5.10) and silver ($7.50) are substantially higher this AM. Ted Butler pointed out that he had never seen the gold and silver markets so well positioned, last week. He opined that if the technical funds have to gain gold and silver access they may push prices much higher. That may be in process, this AM. We will know much more by 9 AM New York time. At the same time UK Chancellor Gordon Brown says he will approach the Chinese to be natural buyers of the IMF gold hoard. Interesting times, n’est-ce pas?

I hope you have established your precious metals positioned.

MICHAEL BERRY


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rederob
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 10:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



vermante
i wish i was that handsome - alas
we shall all be taken out by that other certainty - in the fullness of time
i have no idea what the markets will do
but i like to try and work out why they are doing what they do
and there are some well worn directional tracks that give us a clue
apart from that the posts here are intended in good humour if they can't be at least some part constructive
may you and Captain Chaza enjoy a first class trip


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hilarius
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 10:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob

Wash your mouth out!

We are not supposed to worry about why the markets do what they do

We only need to worry about what they do



Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 10:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Bro Hilarius
How can I complete my grand unified theory of the markets without a total understanding of what happens?
Is there any point to this mortal coil?
Taxing stuff:
Will be the death of me!


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hilarius
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 10:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob

There's always a prayer stall for you at the Friary

Buy, hold and pray :-)

Hilarius

PS We brought nothing into the world and we take nothing out


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 10:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Bro Hilarius
Is enlightenment tangible?
It may be the missing ingredient in the grand unified theory.
Curiously, the forces that underpin the visible universe are obvious, but invisible: space, time and energy.
Perhaps this conundrum can be applied to the markets: fear greed and apprehension.
Who will join me at the prayer stall?


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goldbug
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 10:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius,

I know of a couple of central bankers that should start praying......

Regards
gb


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goldbug
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 12:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





looks like he's praying......
or hes finally decided to bite his lip....
or someones shoved a gold brick up his bum....




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hilarius
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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 02:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Goldbug

The USA has a problem with inflation?

Bloomberg 23/2/05 :-

Consumer Prices in U.S. Rise 0.1 Percent; Core Prices Increase 0.2 Percent

Prices paid by U.S. consumers rose 0.1 percent in January, less than forecast and suggesting companies haven't been able to pass on their higher raw materials costs.

[End of Quote]

Not saying you are wrong ... but just wondering what you think about that?

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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goldbug
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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 07:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius,

Gee, were do i start......
The CPI figure (if you can believe it) is from a government source ... lets just say they have been known to twist the truth a little...

Lets start with Greenspan and his policy to leave interest rates at all time lows and its effect on the global property market.
I'll concentrate on my own personal experiences here as people may readily relate.

Firstly the global housing 'bubble' that was created from this easy money policy....

I bought a house in Perth 7 years ago and sold it last year for an annual gain of 25% cumulative.....it was a dump.
I also tried to buy a house in the UK a few years ago and repeatedly kept getting kazumped (gave up in the end and rented.....)
Moved back to New Zealand last year....bought a house for a price that seemed like a lot of money (in NZ money) and probably was.

From what i have read and people i have talked to there is a housing bubble in the US and even France were property ownership hasn't got the same cultural significance as in the other countries mentioned, also shot up...but the french don't give too hoots....a house is somewhere you live...its not a store of wealth...maybe the french are onto something..

In the countries were house prices soared (not France)people borrowed against this new equity and went on and continue to go on spending binges mainly consumables(rates are still too low) thus making them feel good and why shouldn't they they didn't have to save, they let their new found wealth in their house do that for them.

I worked in Western Australia in the mining industry designing mines mainly iron ore, copper gold etc during the early nineties (it was slow) people were more interested in the new economy were you didn't have to get your hands dirty you could double click and buy some tech shares and make a bundle some did some didn't.

Because of the stalled investment in mining (it takes a number of years to firstly find,locate and purchase some land that has potential for an ore body then do a feasibility study, find someone who will fund it and get it designed then build it, commission it and finally start shipping it or finding some buyers.....you get my drift)
you can't just double click....

Because of the global consuming binge bought on by this easy money policy...... we created the economic monster as we know as China ...they produce stuff that we buy..... go on have a look at the shirt on your back its probably made in China....
China as you know needs raw materials and quite a lot i have been told, i also have been informed that they have a fairly large population that want what you and I have (they can't have my gold though, they'll have to cough up for that.....)
Because of Chinas insatiable appetite for raw materials prices for these commodities are soaring this is the root for inflation in my eyes.......i maybe wrong (most probably)
China also needs oil and lots of it and they want it now......the price also doing a bolter thus feeding through to inflation (that and food not shown in the official inflation figures as it is conveniently left out....wonder why ah!!!)

So in summary there are other factors which i could go into ie FX rates, political agenda's, the colour of my favourite underwear but i would probably embarras myself..oops i already have...

When Greenspan says 'Inflation and Inflation expectations are well anchored' my jaw drops in disbelief, as from my own experiences i know he is bending the truth slightly...

Hope I have been clear as possible to my reasoning and its not some ramblings of a deranged lunatic.....

Regards

GB

PS my daughters school fees went up 7% this year i bet they don't include that in their manipulated CPI figures darn sure of that....


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smallworld
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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 08:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I dont want to be too attached to my own opinions about the market, being a short term trader. But a technical guy is a closet economist anyway, so once again i cant help myself.
The CPI numbers consist of actually two set of data. The core CPI data which excludes food and energy is at 0.2 percent. the lower CPI numbers is as a result of lower oil prices in the last two months. Guess where oil is at now. So the US will have shocker CPI in a month or two.
The other thing is the PPI number that was released last friday and was high. That means producer hasnt been passed on the inflated cost because of lack of pricing power.
Generally the CPI is the rear view mirror, the US market has been rallying in anticipation of this number anyway.
Looking forward, the best market view of inflation is the relative performance of CRB over US bond.


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hilarius
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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 09:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Goldbug

I agree with all you say in spades ... but I don't translate it into a case for gold

I do translate it into a case for revisiting productive wealth creating activity

That is what depressions do ... but ...

There is a counter argument ... I saw figures that use of US productive capacity is at a 4 decade low ... so there's a lot of ability to supply demand that is unused

The fact that cheaper labour elsewhere is filling the demand is itself a brake on inflation

Hilarius

PS You could have included salaries for executives who get monstrous payments for destroying shareholder wealth in your inflationary scenario


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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goldbug
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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 10:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius,

The root of my inflation scenario is based on the commodities rampant price increases......the higher cost of these will take some time to filter through (we have already seen price increases) but will eventually lead to higher costs further down the line...your right the cheap labour in China has a dampening effect on this but as Alan Greenspan said a few weeks ago:

'A consequence of the contraction in profit margins of exporters to the United States, and thus low pass-through of dollar depreciation to U.S. import prices, has been minimal pressure on U.S. consumer price inflation in recent years. A corollary is that the adjustment of U.S. real imports--that is, the quantity of imported goods and services--has been negligible.

However, we may be approaching a point, if we are not already there, at which exporters to the United States, should the dollar decline further, would no longer choose to absorb a further reduction in profit margins.'


combine this with higher raw materials and oil, China is getting squeezed from both ends. At some stage they will say enoughs enough we are raising prices to the US market.
Inflation in the US will take off if it hasn't already and gold will follow the inflationary path that it has done in the past.....a flight to a tangible asset that is not backed by promises to pay...


Regards

GB


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hilarius
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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 10:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Goldbug

Since I agree with (nearly) everything you say about short run inflation prospects (especially in raw materials so clearly evident at present) ... I am putting forward counter views more out of interest in your responses (which I greatly enjoy reading) than because I disagree

So here goes :-

(1) Isn't the currency a self adjusting mechanism ... so that as the US dollar rises ... as in time it will ... so the prices received by exporters to the US rise in their own denominated currency & thus their margins rise, even if prices remain constant in US dollar terms

(2) As raw material prices rise sooner or later the adjusting mechanism of higher raw material production kicks in and as the market is flooded with new sources of materials the price cycle turns down

(3) Recycling of steel and other end product sources of materials kicks in more strongly

(4) Strategies to reduce inputs to costs improve

(5) Aluminium ... the classic competitor to steel becomes the dominant metal ... and the base resource, bauxite, is more plentiful

(6) Technology is continually improving productivity

(7) World labour resources are under employed

(8) The major problem is not under capacity, but over capacity with more goods flooding markets than markets can absorb

Pondering and wondering

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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goldbug
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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 11:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius,

Your probing is doing my head in but here goes....geez!!

(1) The currencies are self regulating as long as you don't have central bank intervention, which we do have ie Japan rampant in this regard...agree with the dollar eventually rising but as we will have commodity prices rising just as quick the gains in currency will be lost on the gains in commodity prices.

(2) we are underestimating the global demand for commodities now and in the future. ie we have a couple of billion people entering the consumer age and i have a hunch that they will not stop at anything less than what we have in the way of cars, houses, xboxes, computers, mobile phones etc in fact thier unbridled enthusiasm for this gadgetry will make our consumption look weak in comparison ... we are in a secular commodities boom that will last a very long time (i maybe wrong here but this is good for oz and us here in nz... example xstrata's bid for WMC (they know a bargain when they see one...)

(3) no comment....

(4) agree

(5) steel will skyrocket in price so your probably right there in that aluminum will become the base resource.
bauxite will become a valuable resource - again good for oz (china intend to develop their nuke industry)

(6) technology at some stage will hit the wall and the productivity gains experienced in the past will slow....

(7) world labour markets are under resourced - yes they are but to get them to work in an efficient manor is the problem ie government corruption, red tape etc etc etc.

(8) a nice slow long recession should fix that..


My main point is in (2) in that the estimation for raw materials is way out ie the South Koreans yesterday announcing that any new foreign currency holdings will be in the ozzie and the looney, ask yourself why is this? if you come up with the answer that its because they'll be purchasing a lot more raw materials off these countries you maybe near the mark..

sorry hilarius some of these may appear lame as i'm tight for time and would like to have lunch....i'm having a break for a few weeks... i need to go and count my bullion...

regards
gb


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hilarius
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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 11:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Goldbug

Your points make some sense, especially your references to growing demand ... but maybe the pesky old central bankers will dampen their enthusiasm in the nick of time?

Wishing you a happy golden recesssion / depression :-)

Let's hope those silly old central bankers don't repeat the mistakes of the 1930s

Just imagine if they put us back on the gold standard !!!

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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goldbug
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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 11:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



that could be the parting shot from greenspan as he enters oblivion:

'ah by the way that little speech i did in 1966 you know the one about gold and economic freedom well i was right then and i've been wrong since, sorry bout that, just give me 5 more years and i'll fix it....ha ha ha (crazed laughter) as he gets taken away in a straight jacket..

http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/Greenspan.html





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keith_s
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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 10:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Would NCM be the best performer when POG moves north from 5 to 20 March 2005?

K S


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rederob
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Saturday, February 26, 2005 - 01:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



keith
the avalanche of replies is indicative of the fact we DO NOT KNOW.
just go long gold and worry over everything else


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rederob
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Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 09:28 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold is up.
Can't post charts - IC technical issue?
Looking to close year above $500/oz.
US deficits will pressure greenback further over year and euro will become an investment vehicle in preference (despite Eurozone countries being somewhat stagnant vs US bankruptcy).
Next euro rally to $1.45 will take POG well over $460 and set new levels of support (around $440)for the precious metal.
Apart from losing capacity to post charts - it's all good for POG and downhill for the greenback.


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muzza
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Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 02:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Two Charts for you rederob,

XAU Weekly:

XAU

HUI Weekly:

HUI

Both very encouraging
cheers


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ingot54
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Monday, March 14, 2005 - 10:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




Chinese Revaluation – Euro’s Big Moment?
2005-03-11 16:52:23
By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

Reserve diversification is the new buzz in the market. To the surprise of many traders, the People’s Bank of China, recently released figures indicating that China has reduced holdings of US dollars in their reserves by 6% over the past 2 years (from 82% to 76%). In the past, reports have only highlighted China’s continual purchases of US treasuries and in fact, next week’s US Treasury International Capital flow data should confirm just that.


Looks like the hype might be right. The $US is on the nose, according to the People's bank of China, but not according to US Treasury data releases!

Augurs well for Gold in the North-East sector of your chart!

Read more : http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=293&Itemid=39







If a kite can just catch the breeze, how high can it go...

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goldbug
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Thursday, March 17, 2005 - 08:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Oil at new highs,
Dollar on the nose.....
Dow heading south....
CRB breaking out...
Record US budget and current account deficits....
The threat of inflation everywhere.

Central banks all over the POG....what are they trying to hide from us?? Its anyones guess how long they can keep it up....but everyday that passes is a day closer when POG will explode to the upside.

Long GOLD and lovin' it

Regards

GB

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