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Archive through April 07, 2005

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through April 07, 2005

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coyotte
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Post Number: 11
Registered: 12-2002

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Sunday, March 20, 2005 - 10:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




are any australian gold miners making a bottom line profit ?

noticed in LSG report that one of the new mines to come on line have production costs of around $Au500 oz if they were obtaining best spot at around $Au550 it certainly does not appear to leave much room for error
read on Kito that most of the SA producers have fuel running at around 33% of production costs if the same holds true here than a fall in the $AU would only push up fuel costs but would the rise in POG in $AU be enough to compensate ?
if the above is true then most of our small producers will be going out the back door long before there is ( if ever)a rise in POG in its own right and not dependent on a falling $US

o/k so we invest in the physical ---- well whoopy that be real great! if we done that back in the 70s we would just now be getting around 50% of our investment back
some store of value




Coyotte


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rederob
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Monday, March 21, 2005 - 07:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



coyotte
You make some valid points.
Steer away from producers that can't make a reasonable profit: "Reasonable" differs based on output so if you are dealing with a Lihir or Newcrest a lesser value will still give a handsome return.
As for fuel costs, again the numbers vary from mine to mine but generally Oz producers have a much lesser percentage than your quote for SA - these data are available from annual reports of companies and can be complicated by the number of actual properties being mined and their respective locations.
As for your "top line", the bottom line is that most Oz gold producers are making a profit.
And people who buy anything at the top of a market can expect to get burnt on a price correction - in the case you make of buying physical in the 70s, try the same exercise based on buying physical anytime in the 60s and report back the percentage gain: A different story perhaps?







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coyotte
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Monday, March 21, 2005 - 12:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks for the reply rederob
could the POG pre the 1970s be a valid pricing base?
pre 70S Gold was currancy in its own right, hence a "store of value"
but as i pointed out in on this forum early 2003 when Jim Sinclair and others where advercating that we were entering a new Golden era that gold since the 70S has become a commodity --- which is in ample supply --- the reserve banks holds tons of the stuff and have no production costs -
from my observations since the early 70s every time that gold has been bandied about as the vechile to be on it has been overtaken by crude
would not be supprised if we are seeing the 70s revisited
commodities going to the moon only to make a crash landing and near the end of the decade something that is well regulated taking off like the banking sector in the 80s

Yep i have positions in gold but mainly in NEM (us) and Lihir (us) to cover against a drop in the $au ---- as these producers are costing and selling $us there is probably more up side than in aust producers -- last i looked at Newcrest their hedge book rivaled Barracks -- ouch!

coyotte


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smallworld
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Tuesday, March 22, 2005 - 07:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold dropped 1.9% overnight. now just sitting above obvious support of 430/425 band. this is a strong support level, But not reaching 450 before it started retracing is bearish. On the other side, US index rose 0.9 % overnight, A very big rally even considering fed interest rate hike is a given. The last night is a big candle looks significant to me, looks it has confirmed the low formed on 14/3, and that makes it looks like a wave 1 in dollar index.


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goldbug
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Tuesday, March 22, 2005 - 08:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey smallworld....

nothing has changed fundamentally for POG.....has it???
.....short term movements are inevitable...

The ship has pulled into port to let people off, but, don't be fooled.... flight gold 101 is heading much higher...destination unknown

aye aye

GB


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rederob
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Friday, March 25, 2005 - 09:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



coyotte
Have spent the day catching up on things after some interesting travels up north Qld way - counting coal carriers "stacked up" at Bowen and Mackay, for example.
Now on gold, is it a "commodity" or a "currency" (both being stores of value)?
If it were that simple then this thread would be dead.
Your point about central bank holdings is interesting.
Why should central banks hold any gold at all?
The proportionate value of gold to paper in national reserves is paltry, and printing presses clearly are a simpler way to make money (but is fiat currency a store of value).
As a straight commodity, gold demand presently exceeds supply - the shortfall being met from above ground reserves.
Silver is the better precious metal to be on as it's in shorter supply and depleted in most industrial applications.
Yet silver's price typically tees off after gold.
I'm hedging many of my market bets by being overweight in gold equities - may prove to be quite silly - might not - will know in next 10-15years.
My view is that the generations before us who understood the true value of gold had a better appreciation of it than the financial wizards of today that "play" with POG.
Paper is very convenient and makes "money" transactions straightforward.
But I am not convinced that paper stores any value at all - it certainly has not withstood the test of time via countless cycles of inflation, deflation and hyperinflation during the 20th century.
And I suspect my faith in gold will be borne out in a several years - when the US realises that the only way to overcome its debt crisis is to debase its currency.


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goldbug
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Monday, March 28, 2005 - 01:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The question has been raised on other threads is this the end of the gold bull????

A 3 year chart gives some clues as to what to expect but not guaranteed...



the last time we had people calling the end was on a double head formation about the same time last year ...the price plummeted to $375 in a matter of weeks...what was the end result of this...a high of $457US at years end.

Prior to this was a wedge formation similar to what is potentially forming now...the call then was the same as today that the end of the gold bull has finished.

So what is so different today than at these other times.....is the US dollar on a path of strength?
is inflation in the US such a big problem?
if it is will the fed be more aggressive in its raising of rates...so far 7 rate hikes by the fed has caused the price of gold to continue its upward journey?? so what would an acceleration of rate hikes do??
Is deflation more of a problem now than inflation??

Because the fed has implied that inflation risks have increased but at the same time choosing to keep their 'measured pace' wording, would indicate that the recent rally in the $US is getting to the point of overdone....

Also, the market has a short memory when it comes to recent data: with record US current account and budget deficits even on a weakening dollar. The dollar looks like its setting itself up for another slam dunk unless we see a change in trend with the deficits.
With OIL at close to all time highs during January and February of this year you could expect a further widening of the deficits.

If and when the POG rallies and shows signs of strength you can bet your bottom dollar that a statement will be released by the IMF that they are going to sell all the gold they have...this is a slight stretch of the truth but my point here is that the central banks continue to manipulate the price of gold even though it continues onto higher levels.

Comments welcome from both sides of the fence...

Regards

GB


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philjohn
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Tuesday, March 29, 2005 - 02:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hope this isn't a stoopid question

but does anyone look at gold futures to get a sense of where the market is heading?

can anyone point me to a good website that shows price v. metal inventories? I've tried googling and searching around but haven't come up with anything decent.

sorry for the hassle,

Phil


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goldbug
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Wednesday, March 30, 2005 - 07:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



http://asia.news.yahoo.com/050330/afp/050330081922business.html

Stick it to them Mr Mahathir....

GB


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goldbug
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Saturday, April 02, 2005 - 07:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good morning

An interesting article:

http://www.kitco.com/ind/hamilton/apr012005.html

As of today the ratio has gone even further into extreme territory with a reading of 7.5.

To revert to at least the mean ratio of 15 either POO has to come down to $28 or POG rise to $855.....

The POG today was nothing more than the usual price manipulation by the CB's to keep it down to highlight to the unwary majority that everything is AOK in the land of milk and honey...its aint...
Weak job creation, unprecedented current account and budget deficits, inflation rampant, personal debt at historical highs, rising commodity prices, POO at all time highs, rising interest rates, Housing bubbles, 2 wars currently being undertaken with more on the cards...

I'm not usually by nature a pessimist, but i'm trying to look at the facts here and not get caught up in the impression that everything is holding up just nicely and somehow the US will sail through this with nothing more than the usual patriot zeal that usually accompanies adversity.....Surely their must be others that could tell me otherwise..

Regards

GB


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fox_terrier
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Saturday, April 02, 2005 - 11:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi goldbug,

Wise minds think alike goldbug. I was about to post the same story from the safehaven website.

Lucky i read yours first.

We must remember to be patient and look to the long term.

Cheers
FT


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rederob
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Saturday, April 02, 2005 - 01:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



let's see........
gold down
dollar down
and DOW down
hmmmmm
let's see........
something is up!!!!!!!!


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sparticus
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Saturday, April 02, 2005 - 05:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi there,
This is my first post, though I've been following the thread with much interest. With regard to the dynamics beneath the POG, a friend referred me to an interesting article which makes a few points that have not been made here, supporting with interesting graphs. So I thought I'd refer you to the article, largely because I think it presents a compelling case for an upside breakout in the POG.
The writer, Adam Hamilton, makes a case that the POG has always tracked the price of oil, and is currently lagging - so this lag will inevitably, and quite soon, catch up.

One particularly interesting graph he uses is: Price Ratios of Gold and Oil

The link to the article is: http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/hamilton040105.html

I'd appreciate your comments, because I think he presents a pretty interesting case.

TKS
Sparticus


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rederob
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Saturday, April 02, 2005 - 08:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



sparticus, welcome to the fold
a 5-year lag is not the best basis for tipping a rise in POG
the correlation is, nevertheless, positive
oil is better tracked against commodity prices, and the above chart-dates for spikes match almost perfectly with bouts of high commodity prices (particularly base metals)
as last week proved, gold can act with or against any of the typical indicators: there is either a degree of manipulation or significant irrationality amongst gold traders
over recent years POG has had a stronger correlation with the greenback than with oil
this correlation shows no sign of abating near term
so if the greenback strengthens we may see POG dip
i personally see gold as the independent arbiter of value, available to bidders worldwide, day and night
yes, it's US dollar denominated, so will reflect a global understanding of the value of the greenback
but gold is NOT PEGGED to the greenback and will ultimately reflect the value of stronger currencies (unless gold can translate into some sort of a "currency" in its own right)
gold may well be in a secular bull market, but it's a grazing bull rather than a rampant bull
there is nothing on the horizon to suggest gold will "break out" - it certainly has NOT reacted to oil's spike
i hold gold equities because they are profitable and i believe gold will hold its intrinsic value better than most other metals (maybe not silver) in the longer term
i would like to believe gold will be a stellar performer, but take another look at the above chart: it's one where patience prevails or you quit gold holdings because it's dips sap credulity


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rederob
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Saturday, April 02, 2005 - 11:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



philjohn
your question earlier about price versus inventory:
bullion banks hold incredible tonnages of gold, so "traded" gold is a small reflection of what is happening in the markets
the European Central Bank sold almost 50 tonnes in recent months while some 310 tonnes have now been sold since September by banks signatory to the 2004 Central Bank Gold Agreement
To look at gold inventory levels go to:
http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/GC_wareho.jsp
this site separates its ETF COMEX traded gold fund inventory from other gold warehouses
i suspect nobody answered you because nobody knows where gold is heading and gold futures are as good a guage as anything, given that anything is not overly useful


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hilarius
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Sunday, April 03, 2005 - 06:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gentlemen

Statistical correlations can themselves be plotted, and subjected to technical analysis

As one of my bosses used to say when confronted with comments about the difficulty of a task :-

"It's only work"

In this case the problem is that organisations charge for their precious historical data and so correlation studies that should be easy work are made unnecessarily difficult

Per Ardua ad Astra

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Sunday, April 03, 2005 - 07:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bro hilarius

"It's only money" that they want.

However, some keepers of key historic statistics of market data have rushed to "commercialise" these data and put them out of the reach of average investors.
For example, last year a wealth of LME data was freely available and allowed those with a penchant for research or manipulation the opportunity to discover trends, make important observations and examine correlations with other key market data.
More and more of these important data are being sold off and made available on pay per view or subscription. Or are "appetisers" to financial/market services websites where secure logon and subscription give you access.
While the internet has liberated a lot of information, it has separately provided a greater opportunity for some businesses to capitalise on our thirst for information and part us from pecuniary interests.
I am finding fewer and fewer "free" sites by the month and even "news" services are increasingly by subscription or pay per view.
It seems a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, and a lot of knowledge comes at a high cost.


Vale
Primus inter pares pax tecum


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hilarius
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Sunday, April 03, 2005 - 10:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob

Or as my imperial brother Claudius would say :-

"Government of the people by the few, for the few"

Keep up your good work

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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goldbug
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Monday, April 04, 2005 - 09:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"Per ardua ad astra",
reach out
to touch those stars.
Never shrink
from any dream,
for dreams
can take you far.

To dream in sleep
is one thing,
to dream awake,
a thrill,
And you can full
translate that dream,
if you have the will.

Tis true today
as when first said,
in another guise,
What use a hand
to grasp with,
if you reach not for the skies?


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philjohn
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Tuesday, April 05, 2005 - 09:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



rederob, thanks for that

what i am really after (if anyone knows a good site) is something like this:

http://www.pincock.com/Perspectives/Issue1-Copper.pdf

page 3, bottom left

now THATS what i'm talking about.

:D

i'll have more of a hunt around tonight and see if i find anything more

:-)


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rederob
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Tuesday, April 05, 2005 - 10:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



philjohn
hope you can find what you are after
but as i suggested, it could mean diddly squat as "inventory" for gold is mostly in Central Banks and is "unreported"
exchange warehouse stocks of gold are a wee fraction of Central Bank holdings
GFMS has a regular series of papers and reports on gold:
http://www.gfms.co.uk/Market%20Commentary/Gold%20Survey%202004%20-%20Update%202% 20launch%20Toronto%20public.pdf
reason is because gold is not traded like a commodity
instead, wealthy westernised nations like to keep a "stash" for those rainy days, while other nations are ..... well, i'm not entirely sure what other nations are doing or why they would think they needed gold
hmmmm..........
must ask ms rederob if she prefers silver to gold........


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rederob
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Thursday, April 07, 2005 - 07:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



recent weekends i see Colin's notes on gold suggesting a retest of $410
it's not too far below present price, so very possible
that said, POG has rallied some in euro and AUD terms in the past week and presently sits at euro$331 and AU$557
also been good buying on the dips, so downside moves have been comparatively narrow
need to include another chart to get a better take on things (goldbug, can you oblige?)
for now my tip is further consolidation in the $420-430 range
the greenback is preparing for another Humpty Dumpty episode - expect the next run north in May


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goldbug
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Thursday, April 07, 2005 - 08:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No problems rr...



Technicals are indicating a tentative move higher in coming days....
IMF sales loom over the horizon even though the US and German bundesbank have given their thumbs down to Gordons proposal....i'm sure he'll have something else to say on this matter...

Other fundamentals giving strong support at these prices:
POO remaining high (GOLD/OIL ratio still at all time highs - 7.6)
The indian buying season is upon us so the physical side is taken care of.
The $US dollar strength has run out of steam and is approaching if not already at resistance.
Global stock markets going through a correction or ???
World bank announcing the US must address their massive deficits.
Inflation on the march.

Shall i go on...

Regards

GB

Regards

GB


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shawky
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Thursday, April 07, 2005 - 09:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Goldbug, Rederob
The Spot Gold V's AUD Chart looks a little more bullish to me. Maybe only due to the bearishness of our exchange rate at present.

Regardless, does this not bode well for Aussie Gold Producers?

CMC Spot Gold

regards
Shawky

P.S. Indicators set to match Goldbugs chart.

(Message edited by shawky on April 07, 2005)







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goldbug
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Thursday, April 07, 2005 - 05:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Shawky,

This may answer your question.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,12782507-31037,00.html

Regards

GB

ASX Stocks 20-minute delayed

 
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