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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through April 27, 2005

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through April 27, 2005

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rederob
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Friday, April 08, 2005 - 08:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ready to go long?
The ANZ investment Bank today indicated the AUD was heading lower (66cents by year end) and that POG could hit $370 on a technical view.
I always take this as confirmation that the opposite trend is prevalent.
It is curious that while ANZ is picking a stronger greenback, prominent analysts weighed in yesterday with their thoughts on the future of the dollar as part of a Bloomberg survey. Deutsche Bank provided the most bearish outlook, saying that the buck will drop to $1.43 against the euro by year-end. Merrill Lynch foresaw a $1.36 dollar, while UBS predicted $1.40. Morgan Stanley made the bull case, saying the dollar will rise to $1.26 by year-end (from present $1.28).
I think that because POG in euro terms has actually increased markedly in recent weeks, there is an exceptionally strong chance that greenback weakness will strongly advance POG.
It may be true that further increases in FED rates will draw in more buying of the greenback, thereby strengthening it, but what is the underlying story?
It's of a currency facing the largest current account and budget deficits imaginable, and a government that has no plan to turn this around: Let alone be able to turn it around.
That's why I'm still on gold, and a wee dram of silver.


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goldbug
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Friday, April 08, 2005 - 09:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rederob,

Just read the same thing:
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/tbd/anz/anz.pdf

Everyone to their own i guess...but

The fed have only just come out and indicated that inflation is rising.....Traders took this as a sign to buy the dollar on the assumption that the fed will keep inflation contained.....ha ha ha.
Firstly, inflation the kind that doesn't effect Greenspan ie Fuel costs, housing, and the stuff ordinary people have to be deal with every day have been going up for sometime now...

The bozo's at the fed are way behind the curve and have a lot of catch up to do before they even get on par let alone contain inflation...once this realisation smacks the traders who are buying the dollar in the head it will be too late for them....
The fed will be raising rates at a measured pace...if they raise at a more aggressive rate (which they must to keep inflation in check) they run the very real risk of bringing down the housing market in the US which is mortgaged up to the eyeballs...thus causing a severe depression.

Next week we have trade figures coming out of the US....anyone predicting a decline.....with oil at ATH
i guess not.

to all the ANZ clients....short gold at your peril!!!

Regards

GB







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goldbug
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Saturday, April 09, 2005 - 07:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






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hailoh
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Saturday, April 09, 2005 - 08:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Stand back a bit.

image/x-bmp5 Year Gold
untitled.bmp (125.4 k)



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smallworld
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Post Number: 204
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Saturday, April 09, 2005 - 11:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



two months ago I posted something about gold and gold stocks http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=294699&post=59543#POST59543
I want to look at that again.

There were altogether 3 divergences between gold futures and gold stocks since new millenium. The top chart is gold futures and the bottom chart is XAU, the gold stock index.
1. 2001 - XAU made a new low in late 2000 but gold made a higher low in the following 3 months.XAU was affected by the sentiment of the stock market, but that was not shared by gold investors. In fact the higher low was the turning point from a downtrend into an uptrend.
2. 2003. XAU made lower highs but Gold futures definitely made higher highs. This happened during the war, stock investors thought gold price would decline once the war started, just like the 1st Gulf war, but the Gold futures said that this time was different from that in the early 80s when gold was in a secular decline.
3. The divergence as I posted two months ago. Gold made new highs in 2005 but XAU made a lower high. I dont know for sure, but gold stock investors probably think that the interest tightening cycle has started and the USD will rally and push the gold price down.

During the last 3 divergences I noticed that
a. the gold futures wins out twice, and the 3rd still has to play out.
b. There is indeed quite deep retracements, perhaps calling it cyclical bear will be apropriate.
Looking at the price of Gold alone.

3 forks describe this secular bull. the dotted brown fork is the entire bull campaign. the blue describes this run since 2003. and the green fork describes the last leg up, and the lost of momentum. the Median lines actually became resistances rather than support. I wont post the daily here, but suffice to say that gold is touching the lower median line created with the previous high and lows.

In conclusion, In the short term, the cyclical bear is prowing around and the bull is just hanging on and it will depend entirely on how much uncle sam is worth. In the longer term, I think this gold bull is not same as any other bull trend in our life time. not in the 80s, not in the 70s either. I think Ann is closest to the mark when she posted about the Kondratieff wave http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=6&post=63304#POST63304. But Gold wasnt floated until the 70s. Anyhow, if this secular gold bull is credible, 400 should provide very strong support.
Cheers


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rederob
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 07:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



g'day smallworld
great charts above
one of the more comforting bits of info on gold is that during this general carnage to global markets, eurogold price has remained firm in the $329-330 range
even ozgold price has remained near $55o throughout
so the price breakdown in greenback terms is not reflected in other currencies
this is interesting as some of the usual relativities have fallen away, in particular the inverse relationship with the DOW
gold has faltered more on speculation of IMF gold sales, and from Fed "entrails" on rate movements
there is no evidence thus far that actual US interest changes have a material affect on the gold price
whereas "talk" of rate movements feeds back into gold price movements
what appears to have stemmed POG upside is relative firmness of the greenback over the past month
how much longer will this continue?
or will it actually gather strength?
the crystal ball is hazy for now
those out fishing will get a better outcome than ticker watchers for the time being


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goldbug
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Sunday, April 17, 2005 - 03:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello,



The IMF over this weekend have made no commitment to selling any gold at this stage...what will the market make of this???

A price drop to $410 would be in my opinion a big blow for POG...
POG needs to hold this mid $420 level....a run either way could be the catalyst for a bigger move..

Regards

GB


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captain_chaza
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Monday, April 18, 2005 - 07:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Officers Archie, Big Bad Red Rob and Goldbugs

Looks like we may get our gap we richly deserve in the morning if all goes according to plan?

Fingers and Toes crossed as always!
Salute
Captain Chaza

capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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Monday, April 18, 2005 - 08:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



chazadelic
what's the plan?
keeping the fingers and toes crossed?
set out the lubber's line, perhaps?
have been treading water and the barnacles have added some deadweight
yaws faithfully
bigbadredrob


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captain_chaza
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Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 12:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Officer Big Bad Red Rob

"WHAT'S the PLAN???"

A man must have some objective that impels him to set out. This is obvious.
Yet, it must be clear in his mind just what his objective is, otherwise his ship may be prepared for one thing and his crew another.

There is a wide range of objectives that have set men sailing across the Global Exchange.

Some are resolved to sail solo in small or large craft, just to show they can do it.

Others, cruise in new waters just because it is far from the strain of work and home pressures. Some may sail together with their wife and children on board so that their children can start their life in a vigorous new environment.

But for the most part, men set out largely because they simply love the life at sea.

In recent years, more men and women have set out to race each other across the oceans for no other reason than it is the nature of man to race, to know precisely where the destination lies and to compete for the splendid trophies and prize money.

Nowadays, even brokers and their staff are participating in this great sport with their own money.

As any voyage on the ASX is a difficult task, before starting his preparations he will do well to decide precisely what he wants to do and where he wishes to go.

That is unless he has such wealth, he can afford to prepare for anything, act according to the whim of the moment and claim to himself and his crew that any unpleasant excursion had an alternative motive.

Maybe a very long term goal, luxury class accommodation with all its benefits and many other taxing and complex reasons are common

By nature man is competitive and finds great satisfaction from working hard either singularly or as a team member to accomplish a set goal.

On the Global Exchange for every winner there must inevitably be a loser. Hence, the greatest sustained effort possible is not only needed but demanded.

Much more than is the case in any other sport.

The frustration, anticipation and anxiety about selecting the most satisfying ocean to challenge, the best ship on which to sail and then the thrill of fast sailing through her waves produces more adrenalins than can be formulated in any drug.

The loneliness in the vastness of the open ocean is only contrasted to the warm friendship of land.

The anticipation and apprehensions of the wind and seas force and direction?

The perplexing evolution of a calm, the intense concentration of steering the craft and the hectic midnight battles as the Global Exchange never sleeps

The impetuous wave riding as she foams ahead scarcely under control and the heavy thud as she falls off a wave top to lie shaken in the trough.

All these are lively champagne experiences which can only be tasted to the fullest and enjoyed by a crew whose training is fully mature as they watch the week long duels between the bullish and bearish skippers.

You ask "What's the Plan?" Officer Big Bad Red Rob

THAT'S the PLAN!

Notwithstanding a NE North Easterly course naturally!!

Allowing for Leeway in these trying conditions even a NEE or even Due Easterly course would be acceptable for a short time

You must always remember brave and loyal officer
Lots of Landlubbers are all to happy to lose 30% and 50% of there capital

They comfort each other in that it was a Retracement and a Correction

It has never ceased to amaze me how they can put a positive spin on such huge negative results

Such is life on land I guess?

Salute
Captain Chaza
capn

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on April 19, 2005)

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on April 19, 2005)


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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goldbug
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Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 06:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



good morning...

in the face of global stock market meltdowns the cappers have been at it again.... the break will be explosive!!

http://www.kitco.com/ind/norcini/apr182005.html

regards

GB


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rederob
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Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 07:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Captain Chaza, ahoy

Painting me as an alsoran?
Or a boy with a ploy
Not a man with a plan

Am I all at sea
Running the lubber's line
Set to nor' nor' ea'
No, not in decline

Foul weather strikes
And I loose a few bob
But that's what I likes
Coz I'm ready to rob

With anchors aweigh
And the virtues of "spin"
It's a great game to play
Regardless of wind

So the Global Exchange
With plain sailing men
Must rid of its mange
And scurvy of revenge

To steer a safe course
In the bourse
We descend


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eblode
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Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 07:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Rob,
I knew you were a latin buff but now a poet?
Cheers
Eugenio


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archer
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Wednesday, April 20, 2005 - 11:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Had to put on the snorkel extension for a day on those gold buys but breathing normally again now


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captain_chaza
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Wednesday, April 20, 2005 - 07:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Crikey!

That was a real nightmare in daylight hours sailing the NCM today
Everything happened so quickly I couldn't work out what to do!
In these very awkward times Captain Empty Head usually does nothing and freezes at the wheel

Still holding on grimly! OUCH!
Another $ lost
Another Opportunity squandered
Another day lost at sea
/popgif{467168,capn}

I hear The Yanks are going to mint a new Gold coin
Should make for a really nice collectors item

Do you think this may pull them out of the (Shit)/Trough or do you think they will go to the proven method of WARing on Rag-Heads?
capn
If they only took my advice?
I have always said
"If you come to a fork in the road? "Take it!"

Gold would go through the roof and the coins invaluable
I wonder how we could get our hands on these coins without going to prison ?
Anybody got any good ideas?

No point in Fleet Commander Little Johnie doing the same since he allowed the sale of nearly all our gold farms to foreigners


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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Wednesday, April 20, 2005 - 07:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



casual observers of POG charts will notice that after troughing there is a 2-3 week run north
the strength of this one from the outset last Friday is encouraging but what will sustain it?
could it be the "scare" last week amongst US equity investors who were savaged, and come looking for a safe haven?
will it be another increase in the euro?
will it be inflationary fears?
or was it a false break?
i would have been happier if POG broke below $420 last week, but it did not
i think a break below $420 is still needed before another upward thrust
of course if POG just rises merrily, i will be happy
but wearing the seeds of doubt over a short term spike that may not further consolidate

i'm off to re-attach the wooden leg, put on the eye-patch, and join chaza launch our mission on freshly minted gold coins: hoping not to be recognised


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goldbug
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Wednesday, April 20, 2005 - 08:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG on technicals looks ok for a bit of a trot....

daily



weekly



rederob, you ask what may sustain this rally....
all of the reasons you gave and more!!!!
the charts at least are suggesting a move...
false start...maybe...lets wait and see.

captain, i was aboard another ship and looked across and could see the confusion in your eyes .... i also was a little bewildered at the action today... i thought i was seeing things..

regards
GB
(the gordon brown appreciation club)


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smallworld
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Saturday, April 23, 2005 - 02:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



So Goldbug Who has been selling to keep gold price down. the exchange stabilization fund?


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rederob
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Tuesday, April 26, 2005 - 08:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



When POG rises to near euro$335 on a steady greenback there is some weather brewing.
I ask that the Good Captain checks his charts for sandbars or reefs that could foul this secular bull run.
No more back and fill.
The winds are favouring us tonight so the Good Captain must secure our sheets.
Should we be lucky, the sails can tomorrow flutter, footloose, while we be three sheets in the wind.
A'hoy


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captain_chaza
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Tuesday, April 26, 2005 - 10:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Officer Bluey Bob


I am right there with you tonite but with a few world's best beer (VB)
Could be a long hard day's night?

I may pull away a bit overnight having changed all my cash into the little Aussie Battler the peace loving Euro the Pommy Pound the Swiss Franc and the Canadian Dollar

Only a few mini contracts each Bobbie
I'm not brave enough to do anything else
As you know
Safety at Sea is Paramount

Could be a good nites entertainment
No Foxtel for me tonite

Crikey ! I just hope I don't fall asleep at the helm
I put in a few loose stops (just in case)

Salute and Gods' speed brave Officer Bluey
Captain Chaza
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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captain_chaza
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Tuesday, April 26, 2005 - 11:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Struth! Officer Bluey
Silver just hit a brick wall
And then Gold

Probably just a few weak pommy bastards in panic mode before the Yanks take the next watch, heh?
Bloody typical!

capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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captain_chaza
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Wednesday, April 27, 2005 - 06:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wakey Wakey Officer Bluey

You'd better put on your thinking cap today thanks to those gutless Yanks
The seas were in absolute chaos again

BHP RIO LHG all down 3%
Only Gold held up

I think I'll strap myself into my bunk and sleep on it
while those mad Kiwis take the helm
God help us

Good nite
capn

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on April 27, 2005)


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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hilarius
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Wednesday, April 27, 2005 - 07:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Captain

Have you been on the rum again?

My Yahoo web-site only shows BHP down about 1.5% at the lowest, in the English Channel

Would you like me to offer a prayer of absolution on your behalf?

With Best Wishes from the Friary

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Wednesday, April 27, 2005 - 07:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A'hoy
Cast adrift this morn?
But on calmer waters.
After a blustery night, POG in euro terms closing at highest level for months @ $336.
And in AUD terms is once again over $560 - closing slightly above AU$561/oz.
Rest the crew, captain.
Another night, another dollar.
Bro Hilarius will absolve us of guilt, so in prayer:
Pater Noster, qui es in caelis,
Sanctificetur nomen tuum.
Adveniat regnum tuum,
Fiat voluntas tua,
sicut in caelo, et in terra.
Panem nostrum quotidianum da nobis hodie,
Et dimitte nobis debita nostra,
sicut et nos dimittimus debitoribus nostris.
Et ne nos inducas in tentationem,
Sed libera nos a malo.
Amen.







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goldbug
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Wednesday, April 27, 2005 - 01:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Smallworld...

I've done some homework on this!!

Extract taken from http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/international-affairs/esf/

The legal basis of the ESF is the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. As amended in the late 1970s, the Act provides in part that "the Department of the Treasury has a stabilization fund …Consistent with the obligations of the Government in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on orderly exchange arrangements and an orderly system of exchange rates, the Secretary …, with the approval of the President, may deal in gold, foreign exchange, and other instruments of credit and securities."

The ESF has special drawing rights (SDR's)...
Could this have something to do with the recent US blocking of Gold sales??? ie they don't have any physical gold to sell... because they have borrowed gold from the IMF under the SDR umbrella and lent it all (or a large portion) out to control the gold price??

Another article of note some 4 years ago by James Turk concludes that the ESF is involved in the gold market:
http://www.usagold.com/gildedopinion/TurkESFgold.html

Regards

GB

Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

 
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through December 27, 2005captain_chaza25 27-Dec-05  05:22 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through December 09, 2005hilarius25 09-Dec-05  02:07 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through November 29, 2005archer25 29-Nov-05  10:40 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through November 25, 2005holycow25 25-Nov-05  05:40 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through October 28, 2005volvodriver25 28-Oct-05  08:40 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through October 11, 2005kate25 11-Oct-05  02:53 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through October 06, 2005justice25 06-Oct-05  05:23 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through September 24, 2005vermante25 24-Sep-05  11:58 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through September 17, 2005ingot5425 17-Sep-05  04:17 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through August 17, 2005rederob68 17-Aug-05  09:26 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through June 18, 2005rederob25 18-Jun-05  09:14 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through June 11, 2005rederob74 11-Jun-05  09:51 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through May 13, 2005vermante25 13-May-05  12:46 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through April 07, 2005goldbug25 07-Apr-05  05:39 pm

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