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Archive through June 11, 2005

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through June 11, 2005

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archer
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Username: archer

Post Number: 652
Registered: 11-2002

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Friday, May 13, 2005 - 01:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Vermante
Did you also know in the U.S there has never been a down year when the year ends with a 5 eg-1965,1975,1985,1995
Regardless of the U.S i think ours is headed for 3500 min
Thats been my target from the start
If the correction in commods goes as planned most of my
money will be in this market shortly
Just as gold led the commods down i expect it will lead them
up also-That will be the signal to start entering resource
stocks again for me
---Archer---


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justice
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Post Number: 356
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Friday, May 13, 2005 - 01:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Will the LT TL hold? I don't know.
At this point I would doubt it.

Is it likely to follow the USD North?
I would think not.

When will US fiat money fail?
Not soon enough.

As FX is an unregulated market I would safely say - short AUD/USD GBP/USD EUR/USD rallies.

Normal stocks will go where the emotions go.
Frankly I was expecting a DJIA rally into the 25th of the month before heading South again in earnest, but the wind does really call the tune.
XAO will follow the DOW IMO.

I tend to agree with archer's ST targets for the XAO XJO


weekly gold







... out there somewhere ...

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captain_chaza
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Friday, May 13, 2005 - 03:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy There Officer COOL as ICE

Welcome back from the FX

I agree with you
I don't think Gold will hold
I said somewhere 'It Looks like a Tech lead recovery"
I may have been right for a change
Notice how only the Nasdaq kept its own last night

I am only holding the CPU and IRE so far!
Looking for a couple more Aussie Tech Sails which may move in Sympathy or Symphony

Got any good ideas?

Bon voyage and God's speed

Captain Chaza
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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hilarius
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Friday, May 13, 2005 - 04:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Captain

Could I encourage you to paint all your wooden surfaces green ... with Wattyl of course

The market needs all the help it can get

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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archer
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Friday, May 13, 2005 - 04:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



How about a big group buy????{;->


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justice
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Post Number: 357
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Friday, May 13, 2005 - 04:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Skipper of the Cruel Sea,

I have no ~rational~ suggestions regarding stock picks - Helmsman archer who is less cruel has a good plan regarding the commodities and I hope it pans out too - but I'm just watching, dreaming in BIO-Techs.
I believe in PSD and EPT: but has their time yet come, well... your charting tool's as good as any; what say you?
Worth just watching and waiting until the Red dries firmly enough to skate on I say...
no plans to re-enter stocks at this time - perhaps next (fin) year or a true XAO bottom.
As it is, FX is plain sailing enough for me.
I don't have a stomach for surprises ATM.

Salute.


... out there somewhere ...

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captain_chaza
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Friday, May 13, 2005 - 05:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Helmsman/Officer Archie

OK! Sounds like a good idea to me

YOU pick the stock and WE will ALL follow!

I think it's time for a new Cocktail I just invented for the Cafe while we wait for the Tea-bags to play catch-up with the "Yanks" and us "Diggers"

"One third Rum and
THEN add two thirds Rum"

capn
PS Sea-Cadet-Officer/Fr Hilarius
I don't really know about Green?
I think I am a BEIGE person?
Probably a bye-product of living with women for too long?


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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Friday, May 13, 2005 - 05:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ahoy
gold price froze
hit ice berg
then 2 more
lands me in the drink
must have been a bundaberg
rum thing
aaah
salute


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justice
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Friday, May 13, 2005 - 09:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For the very astute shore term traders:
Downside impulse is tired out for now in the above three sister currency pairs. Take profits and wait at least a couple of hours to see which way the wind blows and at what velocity. Or just get some sleep.

All that glitters.


... out there somewhere ...

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rederob
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Friday, May 13, 2005 - 10:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



justice
good call
now add my penny worth
gold to rise hereonin
closing over $430 next week
night all


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justice
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Friday, May 13, 2005 - 11:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



rr,
We have such penchant for making a brief directional observation sound so permanent - do we not, eh?
I guess it's the awareness of almost a given certainty in our mind.
USD doesn't look like it's about to stall so it's USD and Gold hand in hand into the M1 M2 M3.

I know it's happened before but I'll believe it better when I see it real-time. :-)

usd chart


... out there somewhere ...

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goldbug
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Post Number: 180
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Saturday, May 14, 2005 - 12:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Justice,

Just a question with the POG chart you posted previously.
I see you've used a log chart....

When drawing trend lines i tend to use linear.
I know there has been discussion on this subject before but is this personal preference or is there an advantage using log.

If we use linear i see that the trend line at present is at $415.




Regards

GB


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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza

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Saturday, May 14, 2005 - 01:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Offocer Goldbugs

If you both ignore the intra-day panic sales at the pivot points and put more weight on the close you'll probably see the breakdown @ $425

I also use the Log Scale

In planning a cruise and plotting a course NE a 1% move at the beginning of the journey is very different than a 1% move at the end
Eg 1% move @ say $300 = $3
1% move @ say $450 = $4.5
As you can see the difference is $1.5

Linear scale can sometimes prove to be quite disastrous if you are getting very low on supplies and far out of sight of land

You may well be sailing NE E and not the intended TRUE NE'ly course
It can also do very funny things to your momentum based instruments

I hope Officer Cool as ICE has a better explanation?

Salute for now

capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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goldbug
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Saturday, May 14, 2005 - 03:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Captain..

I found the Linear / log debate here:
https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/10/155850.html
All the big guns here...

Looks like its a personal preference THING...

Regards

Gb


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justice
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Saturday, May 14, 2005 - 05:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



gb,

I won't quibble about what the support figure is with CC.
In my book it's still somewhere above that Red line in the chart here.
I don't have tools sufficient to measure down to the 50c or even a whole dollar level anyway - using whichever scale: Log or Linear.

I'll simply point out that the following pattern could (perhaps mistakenly), be interpreted as a "Gartley" and is considered a very reliable Bullish pattern by some. Hopefully, it pans out as such.

I do not discount rederob's upside target at all, but my natural scepticism is being quite stubborn ATM.

Next week should clear some cobwebs up I expect.

Cheers.

gold


... out there somewhere ...

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goldbug
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Saturday, May 14, 2005 - 08:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Justice,

Appreciate the reply....

The Gartley setup:

http://www.fibzones.com/Stock-ETF/images/classroom/6-18-03%20Series/Part%20IV.pd f#search='gartley%20bullish'

Regards

GB


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justice
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Sunday, May 15, 2005 - 02:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



gb,
Your link is corrupted.
Try:
http://www.fibzones.com/Stock-ETF/fz_classroom.htm


... out there somewhere ...

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rederob
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Sunday, May 15, 2005 - 09:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



there is no case for gold "failing"
if gold was weak today it would be well under US$400/oz today as other nations would have stopped buying it
the immutable fact is that gold continues to be bought on dips
that the greenback ran up 6 month highs against the euro and gold dipped only a touch (in euro terms), is indicative of the support available for our precious friend
far from be swayed from gold, key analysts of the metal are buoyed by its present resilience
indeed, if you were taking odds on the chances of gold finishing the year higher, versus the chances of the greenback finishing the year higher, to be in the money you would not bet money on the money!
that does not mean there is no scope for movements down in gold an up in the dollar, just the strength of the opposite movement for each is stronger


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greatdane
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Monday, May 16, 2005 - 09:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MARKET TALK: Gold Holding $420; Awaits Cues
15/05/05 09:25:00+

2325 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold at $420.20/oz, +25 cents on Comex close, after suffering more fund liquidation Friday as USD gained. ScotiaMocatta says gold needs to close back above 200-day moving average of $424.20 soon or risk further weakness.
More USD strength likely to pressure Friday's low of $419.15, which if breached suggests test of $417, then year-to-date low $411; still, for now physical buying expected to help keep price around $420. All eyes on FX reaction to this week's U.S. TICS, PPI, CPI.(JAD)

Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com


Regards, GreatDane

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captain_chaza
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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 - 11:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Officer Cool as ICE

Picked some NCM @ 13.51
Unbelievable!

Uncle Sam seemed to stall at the top of a crest overnight

Wish me luck on my 2nd attempt to pick the bottom on this one

"The Bear Hunter"
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 - 06:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



4 more trading sessions till week's end and I only need another $10 for POG to hit $430 again.
I am now working on the principle that positive thinking can move markets.
Of course its predicated on excellent maths, via Lorenz's Butterfly Principle.
Don't forget, the most powerful influences on our daily lives are invisible - gravity, energy, time, and thought.
If I can encourage a few billion to go out and buy gold in the next day or so, I will be on a sure-fire winner.
I can hardly wait until next Monday to see how successful this new approach to trading will be.
Oh, I forgot to ask, got gold?


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goldbug
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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 - 06:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Your target of $430 is within reach rr...if you break it down ... its only $2.50 a day....peanuts!!!
so that would be $422.50 tonight...

i'm a bit more direct with my principalled approach...
i think i've mastered the 'SHOUTING at the screen method'
doesn't work either..

regards
gb


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goldbug
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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 - 06:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



maybe if we all collectively shout at our screens, obviously with a positive mindest... and all at a predetermined time.... maybe, just maybe we could scare the livin' beejeezers out of the price and move it up a notch or too.....

i just tried it on the euro and it seems to work...
just think what a collective could do...


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rederob
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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 - 06:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



when in doubt, cheat
this is a great principle, albeit without principal
so at the end of the week, just draw onto your screen the preferred POG - whiteboard marker is safe, even on flat monitors
in fact, one can safely inflate POG to any number and feel deliriously happy all weekend
one must suspend belief in order to accept all possibilities
believe me
it beats shouting and doesn't bother the neighbours


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shaguar
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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 - 06:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



If I could possessing such power to encourage a few billion to go out and buy gold, then I would rather to use that power to encourage a few billion dollars deposit to my bank account. What do you think?


Cheers,

Shaguar.

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goldbug
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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 - 07:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



look look look...i've spent the last 15 minutes shouting at the POG and its moved 60c.....
come on everyone its working....


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rederob
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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 - 07:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



shaguar
Why don't you tell us your account details and we will see.
By the way, do you sign your name in Cantonese, Mandarin, or Pinyin romanization?


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justice
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Tuesday, May 17, 2005 - 07:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



CC,
I've absentmindedly misdirected my reply to the NCM thread.
I know you'll receive it nonetheless.


Bon Voyage


... out there somewhere ...

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goldbug
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Wednesday, May 18, 2005 - 08:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



rederob.....

my voice is hoarse...
what do i have to show for my efforts..
at one stage i had people knocking on my front door...i didn't let them in as i was so focused on the task at hand...but alas it came to nothing, or did it??
i think i'll take your advise and do the CHEAT thing.

Respect

GB


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archer
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Wednesday, May 18, 2005 - 09:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Goldbug
How about switching your allegiance to silver for a while
I have a feeling it will outperform gold for the next few
months at least


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goldbug
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Wednesday, May 18, 2005 - 09:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



all right archer you won....
i'll start shouting at the silver price then .... with one eye on the POG....
i noticed POS had a nice move overnight...back up over $7
from the list i have linked too are there any that are pure silver plays??
http://www.crmz.com/Directory/Industry118C.htm

Regards
GB


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archer
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Wednesday, May 18, 2005 - 01:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Goldbug
Silver thread here
https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/6/201805.html


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goldbug
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Friday, May 20, 2005 - 02:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



i'm getting butterflies....


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giovanni
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Sunday, May 22, 2005 - 11:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Eric Hommelberg puts a good case forward on gold stocks being oversold. See link below. He suggests more downside in the $USD hence an increase in POG. If the POG is "anti-dollar" as he states his charts provide some convincing evidence that gold stocks in light of this gold/USD relationship are indeed oversold. Personally keeping my eye on KCN.

Happy Trading

http://www.golddrivers.com/articles/GoldHui20050521.htm


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rederob
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Tuesday, May 24, 2005 - 05:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well, either the butterflies of the Amazon did not run free, or the markets did not heed my advice to run POG to $430 by yesterday.
No matter.
We see gold resilient over $415 but wishy-washy on greenback movements.
What we also see is good physical demand, so gold has not yet died the death of 1000 cuts.
Technically gold is oversold, in an extremely bearish cycle, and likely to dip further.
If it does dip, it will be due to a continuing rise in the greenback, as in euro terms POG has held decisively over $330.
So we are left with the $64 question - will the greenback continue to rise?
Frankly, I have no idea near term.
In the longer term, as Greenspan's grip on unbridled optimism loosens, I think the greenback will rival the peso.
But that's a long way off.


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goldbug
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Tuesday, May 24, 2005 - 08:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



2 butterflies for you rederob...

the first is a dead one!!!!

the second is alive and about to take flight....

i'll let you decide which is which...






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rederob
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Tuesday, May 24, 2005 - 08:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



youly sees the right one too, gb


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rederob
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Tuesday, May 31, 2005 - 08:36 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG barely keeping above US$415 on strongest greenback since last October.
With Dutch next to vote on E.U. constitution there may be another dip in the euro before the week is is out.
All clouds have a silver lining and this time it's the euro POG price, which today crept over $336.
In AUD terms POG is around $548-550 depending on the ebb and flow of currency fixes.
Silver has tonight dropped back 10cents from last Friday's high, but remains defiant - ie, there is support for the metal despite the greenback's hefty rise in the past few days.
It was interesting to read an article somewhere the other day where the Saudi's were saying to forget investing in USD or euro as they were both heading towards ruin - instead, invest money in gold (I'm sure Goldbug will find the source).
Anyhow, go fishing if the weather is kind, as POG should be cruelled in USD terms this week.
Thereafter, look at the USD shorts ruling the roost and POG to begin its rally to 2005 highs.
For those wanting to pin the tail on the donkey (and "guess" POG price on 1 July 2005) i will maintain a tally sheet: My tip is POG @ US$434.35


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goldbug
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Tuesday, May 31, 2005 - 08:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



heres the link:

http://www.arabnews.com/?page=6&section=0&article=64538&d=29&m=5&y=2005


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hilarius
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Tuesday, May 31, 2005 - 10:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good Evening

[Quote]
US corporate earnings to grow 8.5%
- Video interview with Pat Crowe, Director of Research, BNY Asset Management
- Pat Crowe continues to be positive on the outlook for US corporate profits, with growth of 8.5 per cent expected in the current year and 6 per cent growth the next. The uptick in personal income will lead to a rise in consumer spending, but without accelerating inflationary
pressures, he says. However, the Fed will remain diligent and is likely to move if wages increase significantly.
[Unquote]

SPX500 is nudging 1200 I see

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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archer
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Wednesday, June 01, 2005 - 12:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Silver is showing excellent strength
Approaching 10 Oz dollars per ounce
sil


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goldbug
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archer, rederob, hilarius

i must admit given the decline in the Euro last night that i was expecting gold to get a hiding...but hey it held up nicely...as for silver...what a sterling effort....
may the precious metals complex shine on your worlds...

[Quote]
There's a lot of talk of recent US economic "strength", but all that talk conveniently leaves out the fact that all of that supposed "strength" is (a) highly relative, and (b) resting entirely on an already over-spent, under-saved US consumer - and on Asia's willingness to fund our trade/current account deficits..

It's relative because all the world's other economies outside of Asia suck even worse than that of the US, so it's nothing to brag about, really.
[Unquote]

Regards

GB


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archer
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g-force


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goldbug
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LOL....


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goldbug
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rederob....

my guess for POG on the 1st of July is $437
would like to add POO ($55) and POS ($7.65) since were at it...

regards

gb


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archer
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Wednesday, June 01, 2005 - 02:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I nearly spat my coffee all over the puter when i saw
that pic


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rederob
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Wednesday, June 01, 2005 - 06:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



To anyone wanting to take an educated guess on gold, silver and oil prices at 30 June 2005, just post in this thread and I will add to the table.
Note that you will win this informal competition by tipping low, if history is a guide.


I understand that the winner will receive a prize, too: Captain Chaza will sail you to the destination of your choice, while Archer will provide a running commentary until arrival.
We suggest embarkation and disembarkation be a concurrent event, or will otherwise arrange deck chairs for spectators.


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hilarius
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Wednesday, June 01, 2005 - 06:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings

400

8

44

Hilariously Yours

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Wednesday, June 01, 2005 - 07:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Bro Hilarius
If POG is $400 and POS $8 then we will have a dilemma on our hands - POG and POO tend to trend rather than separate, albeit the rule is rubbery.
Also need to advise that the deckchair analogy is not related to the Titanic battle of the posters, nor was the Captain a deckhand on the fated vessel.




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archer
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Im mucho disappointed Rederob
You didnt even mention my yoda pic
Put me down for 432.50au,9.10ag,56.75for the cruddy


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rederob
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Wednesday, June 01, 2005 - 10:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



consider yourself put down


May the farce be with you


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dollars
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Thursday, June 02, 2005 - 12:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Please put me down for $us POG 424, POS 7.22, Oil 52.26

cheers$


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rederob
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Thursday, June 02, 2005 - 07:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ok dollars
it's sorted
low POGs to highs




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rederob
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Thursday, June 02, 2005 - 07:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Below is the headline piece from last night's copper trading via Dow Jones. Note that silver and copper have ignored an extremely strong greenback to rise significantly against the normal trend.
Copper propped up other commodities - mostly posting modest rises.

DJ Comex Copper Review: Rises Again Amid Low Inventories
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Ongoing supply tightness enabled high-grade copper futures to hit their highest level in five weeks Wednesday, even though the euro hits hit its lowest level against the dollar since September. Technical buying was triggered in the copper pits.

"You have continuation of bullish sentiment," said Dave Rinehimer, director of futures research at Citigroup Global Markets. "Exchange stocks are still extremely tight. And taking out yesterday's high and Friday's high, both at $1.4580, activated a lot of buying."

The most-active July copper contract settled up 2.90 cents to $1.4855 per pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.



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rederob
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Thursday, June 02, 2005 - 07:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With the USD in oversold territory we should see either a turnaround, or consolidation.
Unfortunately the euro is not in good shape so if there is a turnaround in the greenback, it might be a good while in the making.
Clearly the best news of all relates to euro POG prices - tipping in tonight over $340 (POG in AUD terms in the $554-5 range).
With World Gold Council data - http://www.gold.org/value/stats/statistics/gold_demand/index.html - showing quarterly physical demand up by 26% over the year, it's maybe no surprise that POG has not plummeted.
Supportive also is the Central Bank Gold Agreement which limits sales to 500 tonnes per year: By April, two-thirds of the annual sales had occurred so we have a third available for the remaining two-thirds of this year.
While there is not a lot of comfort in POG under $420, had a range of supportive factors not been in place we really should have a price well under $400 on our screens today. And had we plumbed those prices, stop loss sell orders would likely have triggered more substantial falls.
There is every chance this week marks POG's 2005 watershed.
Ever the optimist.............





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goldbug
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Friday, June 03, 2005 - 01:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



$430 tonight anyone ????





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hilarius
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Friday, June 03, 2005 - 01:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GB

How about $ 399 ???

"Man can not serve both God and Mammon" :-)

"All that glitters is not gold"

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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goldbug
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Friday, June 03, 2005 - 02:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius

$399......

Heaven forbid!!!

Regards

GB


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rederob
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Friday, June 03, 2005 - 02:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



not tonight..... on either count??
the trend is usually for the second day of a strong turnaround to be a small rise at close, albeit with a reasonable intraday movement
the other common thread is for the trend to continue for at least 10 trading days, with a rise of around $15 trough to peak - that means this upleg reaches about $430 before a small bout of consolidation
the coup de grace occurs if $450 is taken out on the second upleg
this is most likely if the euro can gather some momentum,
although, it must be noted that POG in euro terms has done a bolter this week despite the greenback going into overdraft, sorry, overdrive!
of the technicals and fundamentals in place this year, we are now better placed than at any other time - principally because the "noise" of geopolitical turmoil (terrorism, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, etc) has played no part in this week's POG movements


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goldbug
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Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 09:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Euro Gold having a very good week.
Approaching long term resistance at 350



regards

GB


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rederob
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Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 10:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Any willing pognosticators wanting to have their 2 bobs worth can join in below until mid week (so as to be fair to early birds) - although those in now can amend their tips till if they wish.
Rules are simple - pick some numbers! - and hope they are close to end June numbers for the commodities.
Below we see Hilarius in an exulted position, and Archer the optimist on silver.
Otherwise, presently Dollars is on the money with POG, Rederob riding silver, and Goldbug in the POO:



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rederob
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Saturday, June 04, 2005 - 10:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



goldbug
If you can, run a regression on daily POG - euro versus USD prices - in the 3 years to March 2005.
Then do the same for last 3 months and finally the last 30days, and compare the difference.
You will notice the correlations decaying.
I don't expect this trend to last, but it is interesting.
It suggests to me that more money might be buying into gold as a hedge against a weakening greenback, but not against the euro, instead the undervalued yuan.
In any event, it was an amazing week for gold.
Will there be follow through in the weeks to come?
I think we should close over $428 this week and breach $430 along the way before a bout of consolidation.
Will be interesting to see what take the US economists give the weak employment data, but supportive unemployment data - a softening market perhaps.


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hunt4apunt
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Sunday, June 05, 2005 - 04:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Funny Money Golden Archer Bob,
Came across your game. Can I have a punt?
Gold $430 Silver $7.90 Oil $57.50


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rederob
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Sunday, June 05, 2005 - 08:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hunt4apunt
your first post on IC was a "dabble"
an auspicious opening gambit




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hunt4apunt
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Rederob
Whew........it's big in here. I got lost. Just found my way back.
Thanx for letting me play.


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whitesamurai
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Monday, June 06, 2005 - 09:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I reckon on a percentage basis I took out the comp last time we did this. This time I'm going higher.
POG $443
POS $8.03
POO $57.25


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rederob
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Monday, June 06, 2005 - 05:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Whitesamurai, you probably did win
But everyone wins here, just some more than others!
I was disappointed at your POS price after being so gung ho on POG - what's wrong with $15 by month's end?
For that matter, Goldbug should be handicapped for not punting on POG @ $450+
Here's the ultimate opportunity to go wild, and we all err on conservatism
Furthermore, this little dabble lacks gender equity - I'm sure we had the fairer gender bending over backwards last time, so let's see more of it here




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goldbug
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Thursday, June 09, 2005 - 03:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



what wise words will greenspan bestow upon us tonight....???
will it be that inflation is under control (BUY GOLD) and that everything is honky dory.... you bet!!!

Look out for these key words and statements:
See how many you can spot...
You may like to add to the list if you must:

I've never EVER seen anything like this before

Conundrum

Pray

Yield Curve

Printing Press

Too much debt

Somethings gotta give

Lots and lots of Inflation

What inflation

There is a housing bubble

Did i say housing bubble

What bubbles

Higher and higher rates like you've never seen before

Did i say higher rates... i meant lower rates

I dont really know what i'm talkin' 'bout

Lower growth

Higher Growth

GOLDilocks economy (i think this is a subtle hint from the maestro to buy GOLD)

The 'R' word

Buy as much gold bullion as you can get your hands on because i think i've gone and got us into a whole heap of trouble (he went and said it anyway)

i'm outa here in january so,

EAT my dust


Regards

GB


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archer
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Thursday, June 09, 2005 - 03:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The yield curve has inverted so my guess is he will
try to crash the bond market


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hailoh
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Thursday, June 09, 2005 - 07:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Now Senator, you're saying that unlimited cheap credit that has no productivity connection is distorting wage restraint?

Senator let me remind you you're talking motherhood here. Wage restraint is good for inflation restraint. We at the Fed like wage restraint.

Cheap credit's good, too. How else would Joe and Jenny get to have four houses and cars for all their five school kids, and all on only five jobs, without cheap credit. And working that many jobs is good for full participation in the workforce too.

Senator, yor asking me what happens if there's too much cheap credit? Well if it ever happened, there's that guy from England in Europe that wants to sell gold to forgive
African debt. Well, Senator, deep down, you know, we have a long connection with Africa, you know, just look round, you know and well, you know??


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rederob
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Thursday, June 09, 2005 - 08:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



black humour
goldilocks
crashes
bears

and a silver lining
to cloud it all


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oldwombat
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Thursday, June 09, 2005 - 11:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



is it just me
because I am getting the impression
you lot are starting to fall about
with the titters
and giggles?




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goldbug
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Friday, June 10, 2005 - 07:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer, halioh, rederob and oldwombat...

i was on edge all night...

how could we miss:

'the economy SEEMS to be on reasonably firm footing with inflation under control'

SEEMS to be ..... what the #$%&*!.... it either is or isn't
bit wishy washy for my liking...

or this old classic:

we don't have the statistical capability to forecast where it is or to judge it.

I mean what is he talking about here...its anyones guess!!!

On the whole though a thoroughly entertaining speech and one worthy of justification enough to go out and buy GOLD


The maestro calling the shots.

Yippeeeee can't wait for the next one

Regards

GB







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rederob
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Saturday, June 11, 2005 - 09:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



We have lift-off, Houston.....



 
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through October 06, 2005justice25 06-Oct-05  05:23 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through September 24, 2005vermante25 24-Sep-05  11:58 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through September 17, 2005ingot5425 17-Sep-05  04:17 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through August 17, 2005rederob68 17-Aug-05  09:26 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through June 18, 2005rederob25 18-Jun-05  09:14 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? Archive through May 13, 2005vermante25 13-May-05  12:46 pm

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