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Archive through December 09, 2005

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through December 09, 2005

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archer
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Post Number: 1157
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Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 11:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/nov282005.html


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glenn
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Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 11:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



501.50... come on now, keeeeeepppp running! :-)







Smrt-trader

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kate
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Tuesday, November 29, 2005 - 12:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I read that link and about 5 other articles on the site, makes for very interesting reading especially the one discussing Murenbeeld's views.
So what exactly is gold's role in the world other than as a metal or as jewelry. I realise that there is a lot more demand now that India and China are more affluent but that can't be the whole story.
The gold price cycle is too long and erratic to allow for "currency" trading so something else must be going on.
Are we going to revert to gold as the reserve currency when the US dollar has to devalue? And, if so, what is the fallout for all other commodities, if you have say a devaluation of 25% are commodities revalued 25% to compensate or will Australia and other commodity rich countries follow the US down the tubes?

Regards
Kate


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archer
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Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 10:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



“We keep some of our gold in Switzerland, and I went to the facility where we keep it and basically it was a large refining company. They were melting down bars from the Swiss central bank, and at the other end of the production line there were semi-finished gold watch bases and jewelry for China, the Persian Gulf and India. That’s where it is going. Central bankers are selling their best asset into the markets and it is going into non-monetary forms, and they will never get it back. They are just bureaucrats and not even held accountable for what they do on a financial basis. It has been such a bad trade for the last five years, you would think that at some point they would begin to say maybe we should hang on to what we have. But again, their general agenda is not to have gold as a monetary asset or at least not talk about it if they have it, because what is still true is that a rising price of gold is not a favorable reflection on public finance.”

John Hathaway


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kate
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Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 12:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer,
Thanks for the excerpt, I actually found and read the rest of the article. What I found interesting was what he said about holding tangible assets. I was listening to a programme on the radio about nine months ago discussing the property market. The interviewer was commiserating with a property manager about the housing market cooling. His reply was that only sections of the property market were cooling and that the top end of the market was actually expanding. Houses 2-3 million and over were in high demand and there was actually a shortage! The houses were paid outright, no mortgages and there were comments similar to "tangible assets" being made.
Somewhat different attitude to the "diversified portfolio" mentality. When the rich and successful start noticeably changing their investment strategy its maybe not a bad idea to wonder why.

Regards
Kate

PS Why do you need copper to mine gold?


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archer
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Thursday, December 01, 2005 - 02:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes the rich and successful are diversifying away from
paper-haha
Dont know re the copper and gold link


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archer
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Monday, December 05, 2005 - 03:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Opinion - William Rees-Mogg



The Times December 05, 2005

It's all nuts to me, Mr Bush
William Rees-Mogg
An elementary lesson in supply and demand, from the fruit of the palm to the soaring price in gold



MONEY IS ONLY a specialised form of barter. In the middle of the 19th century, Mademoiselle Zélie, a singer of Théâtre Lyrique in Paris, made a professional tour around the world and gave a concert in the Society Islands in French Polynesia. In exchange from an air from Norma and a few other songs, she was to receive a third part of the receipts.
“When counted, her share was found to consist of three pigs, 23 turkeys, 44 chickens, 5,000 coconuts, besides considerable quantities of bananas, lemons and oranges.” In Paris, these goods would have been worth about 4,000 francs, generous remuneration for half a dozen songs.



Mademoiselle Zélie’s experience was told and retold by 19th-century economists to illustrate the principle that currencies operate like any other form of exchange. What matters is relative scarcity; in her case the relative scarcity of popular songs and coconuts, in present day usage, the relative scarcity of different currencies, such as the dollar and the euro. Or, indeed, the relative scarcity of gold, the one definition of value that stands outside the fluctuations of national paper currencies. One could say that gold provides the coconuts of our monetary system.

On January 22, 2001, two days after George W. Bush was inaugurated as President of the United States, the price of gold was $265.90 an ounce. Last week the gold price broke through the $500 dollars an ounce level; that means the dollar has been devalued in terms of gold by almost 50 per cent in the four years and ten months of this presidency.

That does not reflect well on Gordon Brown, who as Chancellor sold a large part of Britain’s gold reserve at a price that was way below the present level. It reflects even worse on President Bush. He is ultimately responsible for the management of the dollar. It has halved its gold value on his watch.

The rise in the gold price does not come as a surprise. Many commentators, including myself, had forecast that gold would rise to these levels. My forecast was that gold would reach $500, and when it broke through $500 would move on towards $1,000 an ounce. It would now require a radical change in US financial policy to stabilise the dollar; I do not think such a change is at all likely. So far, President Bush has been very reliable as an agent of dollar devaluation.

There are technical reasons, both on the supply and demand side, that make it probable that the gold price will continue to rise. Yet it was not these technical market reasons that led some of us to forecast the higher price, but the underlying weakness of the financial policy of the United States.

Alan Greenspan, the retiring Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, deserves his own considerable share of responsibility, all the more so because he saw the risks of combining large budget deficits with growing trade deficits and loose monetary conditions. That is a classic recipe for depreciating a currency. From time to time Alan Greenspan has sounded a warning; he has been willing to blow the whistle, but he has never been willing to pull on the brakes.

Last week, he made his farewell speech to the G7 finance ministers in London, and gave another belated warning. “If the pernicious drift towards fiscal instability in the United States and elsewhere is not arrested, and is compounded by a protectionist reversal of globalisation, the adjustment process could be quite painful for the world economy.”

The phrase “pernicious drift towards fiscal instability” is an amazing statement of any chairman of the Fed about any president, all the more extraordinary when it comes from as cautious a man as Alan Greenspan about a President whom he still serves. Incidentally, it applies just as much to Gordon Brown as to George Bush. “And elsewhere” refers to the “pernicious drift” in UK policy.

No doubt the fall of the dollar could have been matched by a rise in the euro; it is possible for people to switch between currencies, rather than into gold. But the euro itself is now a suspect currency. Many people doubt whether it will be possible for Italy to remain inside the euro straitjacket. Gold is better than the dollar, and better than the euro as well.

The rise in the gold price is a natural consequence of the inflationary fiscal and monetary policies of the United States. That has produced a very widespread inflation in the value of real assets, an inflation that is apparent in the global housing market, most of all in the British and American housing markets.

Gold is a natural alternative investment for the Asian countries, particularly China, India and Japan. These countries have a stronger tradition of investing in gold; their economies are growing much faster than those of the West. They already have more dollars than they really want. It has been probable for a long time that they would increasingly invest their surplus dollars in buying gold. That must make sense for them. Now there is far more private wealth in China and some of that is being invested in gold. Central banks may have a reason for supporting the dollar. Asian billionaires want profits.

One can go back to the basic logic of exchange markets, to Irving Fisher’s equation of exchange, or to Mademoiselle Zélie’s experience in Polynesia with coconuts. The US has created too many dollars; the twin US deficits are pumping out more of them all the time.

The wise virgins still have gold, but the foolish virgins, like our own Chancellor, sold most of it years ago. The age-old discipline of supply and demand leaves the dollar with only one way to go. Gold will continue to rise in value so long as the United States is at war, the US budget is in deficit, the US trade account is in deficit and George Bush is in the White House. You can bet 5,000 coconuts on that.


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kate
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Monday, December 05, 2005 - 05:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for the article, Archer. Interesting that most of the writers state the facts yet don't discuss scenarios.
Any idea why LHG is treading water, I thought there would have been a bit more movement or is everyone wondering why RIO sold its share in a potentially huge asset?

Regards
Kate

PS Do you have substantial house and contents insurance policy or does your bank manager have a huge smile on his face when you walk in?!!


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thommo78
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Monday, December 05, 2005 - 09:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Surely POG will pull back somewhere here?? Maybe one more pop on the daily followed by a correction that finds support at 480ish .. i will await with patience on the bid...



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whitesamurai
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Monday, December 05, 2005 - 10:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Great work Thommo - very compelling.

Your chart strongly suggests a pullback to $480 on the technicals. Another bear trap in the making?

This is a very extraordinary market for gold. We're in a secular bull that has just emerged from stealth mode. It makes sense that the public gets shaken from these highs but this really isn't about the public right now, it's about the funds. They are going long - way long, and that's where the charts and my opinion diverge.

Yes, we'll most likely see the number 4 in front of the POG again, and it should be sooner rather than later. In this run December has been good for us and we should be expecting it to be good again: which is precisely why we should be careful this time.

I wrote a few years ago in another place of the "spooks" that hit POG at sensitive times. These players have the physical to back their calls, and have most likely lost out a number of times on their positions. If you subscribe to at least one of the major newsletters you might be forgiven to think it is a major conspiracy. In a sense it is - yet there is no immediate downside to these players' risk as they simply run fiat in opposition to gold.

Debt creation is the necessary evil that supports fiat currency. Convincing the consumer that tomorrow is further away makes for stronger fiat. The day of reckoning is still some years away.

So it gives those with perspective some extraordinary opportunities to trade. This blast through $500 has been very quick, and your chart recognises that. The stochastics indicate overbought condition. All the technical evidence points to a dropping gold. But the fiat wants to intervene again.

For many years we had to put up with a declining dollar as the main driving force for gold. This is what the commentators had to tell us. We knew it was more than this and the nearly six-month detachment from US$ gave us vindication. We were right - gold did rise against all currencies.

So when we see gold at <$500oz we should pause to consider the upside. We are in blue sky territory, but a few clouds gather. There is no geo-political event at the moment, the deficits are only just being considered out of control, the M3 is hidden for now and we are still $500+ gold. The planets have aligned for a major correction.

The correction will occur, though your charts won't give an indication of how quickly the rebound will be. I assert that a fall below $500 will only awaken Joe Public to the party. The knockout punches lost their strength when $400 went.

Fiat cannot be consumed so quickly and the funds will want their long positions back if they get shaken. It's nothing new, you'll find a chart to support whatever happens (perhaps the haunted house) and we shall ride again.

Rederob - where are you? I liken your silence to Gandalf fighting the dragon and I hope you will re-emerge as the White wizard. It has been a long journey my friend and we await your return to celebrate your outstanding prognostications.

The funds be dammned, this rally is for the people who believe. Take our $500 it matters not, we are hoping for $800 now - then we'll eye off the prize before we part with our physical.

US dollar in another stage to fall. Here we go. Another batch of new arrivals awaiting to board the train.


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archer
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Tuesday, December 06, 2005 - 09:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate
I think the LHG bull run is over and its probably going
to correct the whole move up from 1.00
A 1/3 retrace = 1.92
A 1/2 retrace = 1.70

P.S None of the above-its spread around


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archer
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Wednesday, December 07, 2005 - 12:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



New lease of life for scarce metal
http://afr.com/articles/2005/12/06/1133829589038.html


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vermante
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Wednesday, December 07, 2005 - 08:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold has detached from currencies and the

fun for Gold will really commence when the dollar weakens.


Cheers

Vermante


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archer
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 07:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold strength 'suggests central bank buying'
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/318d0442-678f-11da-a650-0000779e2340.html


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archer
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 08:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold rising on top of a rising dollar is a signal that gold has taken on a life of its own and is beyond the control of any monetary authority.


http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=428


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kate
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 08:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for the links, Archer, I actually came across an article which may support the central bank theory.
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=78711

I also came across another which said LHG, OXR and PSV were worth a lot more than their current price(sorry, can't find the link anywhere). I traded PSV a couple of years ago but had forgotten about it since. Might be worth putting in a watchlist.

Regards
Kate


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kate
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 09:11 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Found something similar, mentioning PSV.

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3244&setSub=1


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archer
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 11:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"I also came across another which said LHG, OXR and PSV were worth a lot more than their current price"
I agree Kate so either gold is going to correct substantially
here or the stocks are going to play catch up soon
The HUI only last night took out the highs of Jan 2004 when
gold was trading at 470 so its diverging badly
I still think gold will correct here but this piece out of
the above article is worth noting

"Since the beginning of December, there has been a big jump in delivery notices by long speculators. They now have 17,528 contracts (or 1,752,800 ounces) of gold called upon—and 6,307 contracts (or 31,535,000 ounces) of silver called upon. This represents 38% of the registered gold in COMEX warehouses and 48% of all COMEX physically registered silver."


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archer
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 12:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



goldstash


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hilarius
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 01:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer

What prompts people to have a love affair with gold when they could invest in something like uranium which can help to solve the problem that oil is a finite and dwindling resource?

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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kate
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 01:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I think I'll have to read that kitcocasey article a few more time before I completely understand it!
For example, when such a divergence occurs and there is the possibility of the gold price falling does the HUI remain relatively unaffected?
Regards
Kate


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greatdane
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 01:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MARKET TALK: Spot Gold Touches Fresh 24-Year High 09/12/05 13:36:00 0236 GMT [Dow Jones]
Spot gold touches fresh 24-year high of $523.30/oz as funds, Japanese traders buy on back of still-weak yen; "the yen has fallen 18% against the dollar in 2005, and gold has risen 17% in the same time frame... this proves the tight link between the dollar and gold of the past has been broken, highlighting funds' underlying interest in gold as a speculative investment, as well as its usual 'safe-house' status," says Standard Bank; spot gold trades up $1.20 at $522.60. (GLS)


Regards, GreatDane

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archer
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 01:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I dont know Hilarius
I trade wherever i can
Traded PDN from 80c-2.00 range
Currently short though as shown on PDN thread


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goldbug
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 01:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hilarius ... wash your mouth out

take a good long look at archers pic of the vault full of GOLD....

NOW ....

are you in LOVE ...

Regards

GB







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hilarius
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Friday, December 09, 2005 - 02:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nah

Just a pile of useless yellow rubbish

Only use I can see is for self glorifying ornaments

:-)

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities
ASX Stocks 20-minute delayed

 
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through February 24, 2007vermante25 24-Feb-07  04:03 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through January 14, 2007rederob25 14-Jan-07  10:39 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through December 06, 2006archer25 06-Dec-06  08:38 am
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through September 12, 2006archer25 12-Sep-06  06:45 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through August 29, 2006rederob25 29-Aug-06  06:33 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through July 15, 2006archer25 15-Jul-06  01:24 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through June 09, 2006rederob25 09-Jun-06  05:23 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through May 24, 2006justice25 24-May-06  10:25 pm
GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through April 30, 2006archer30 30-Apr-06  03:47 pm
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through January 17, 2006vermante25 17-Jan-06  06:44 am
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through December 27, 2005captain_chaza25 27-Dec-05  05:22 pm
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