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Archive through December 27, 2005

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through December 27, 2005

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archer
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Username: archer

Post Number: 1206
Registered: 11-2002

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Saturday, December 10, 2005 - 10:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius
Thats exactly what the poms said about gold as they sold
300 tonnes for 270 dollars
I'll leave you to work out how many billions they have lost on that trade
------
Yawn--Gold up 7.10 overnight
Here is a list of central banks STILL selling gold
At some point in the coming months/years its going to dawn
on them that they are selling one of the best performing
asset classes in the world,and they will stop selling
What will happen to the price of gold then
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2005/1208c.html
------
“David Walker, U.S. Comptroller General warned that the U.S. would face a “fiscal hurricane.” He said, “We face a demographic tsunami” that will “never recede.” The top budget chief explained that ageing baby boomers will present fiscal challenges as benefits swamp future budgets. Former Fed Chairman, Paul Volcker warned that America’s deficits cannot persist forever, “The United States is absorbing 80% of the net flow of international capital and at some point, both central banks and private institutions will have their fill of dollars…
------
GOLD HAS EXPLODED AGAINST ALL CURRENCIES especially those that everyone had considered the strong currencies of the world. Just go to Kitco.com and review the charts of gold against the once mighty Euro and the Yen.
------
Appealing To Occam’s Razor to Explain Gold Above $500
In other words, in 2005, the price of gold has risen not only in dollar terms, but in terms of most foreign currencies. WHY????????
Gold is a sterile asset. It pays no dividend or interest. Gold’s appeal as an investment asset comes
into play when central banks no longer provide for a positive inflation-adjusted return on short-term
investments – that is, when the yield on the central bank’s policy interest rate (or some related
money market rate) is below the inflation rate. In this case, gold becomes a better store of value
than short-term money market instruments denominated in fiat currencies.
So, we do not have to conjure up a lot of convoluted hypotheses as to why the price of gold is
soaring against paper currencies. Rather, we can appeal to Occam’s Razor (Google it) in coming up
with an explanation – global investors are losing faith in, as Jim Grant calls them, faithbased
paper currencies as a store of value.
http://www.sortweb.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/2293_dd120805.pdf


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archer
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Post Number: 1207
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Saturday, December 10, 2005 - 11:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold up to a 24 year high last night
U.S gold indexes finished DOWN last night
Some thing is WRONG here
I think there is a big game of "chicken" going on at the moment
On the one hand there is HUGE buying of real gold by people
who are losing faith in currencies-enough buying to easily
overcome accelerated selling by central banks
But as you can see from the chart below the HUI index is at
the previous highs when gold was at 400 in Dec 03 and when
gold reached 450 in Dec 04
There are some large short positions held in the gold shares
that make up the index
Either the real gold buyers have had there fill and gold
corrects or the buying continues and the stock shorters
realise they are on the losing side of the trade and cover
setting up an explosive move in the gold stocks
So who is going to chicken first
If the gold and silver futures traders who are asking for
delivery of physical metal(noted in above post)go thru with
their threat the stock shorters will experience considerable
pain
The silver situation is more extreme and it should continue
to out perform gold

hui







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archer
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Post Number: 1208
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Saturday, December 10, 2005 - 11:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



An economist on gold
I meet with US portfolio managers every day and the growth guys cannot
understand gold because there are no earnings. The value guys do not know how
to value it. But the story on gold, like any other commodity, is supply and
demand. Now it’s true that gold has no practical industrial use. But what it does
have is this intrinsic attribute of not having any substitutes.
http://www.sortweb.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/2295_Merrill.pdf


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zorba
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Post Number: 85
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Saturday, December 10, 2005 - 08:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer

Is it possible to actually buy gold stocks or the real gold bars?

Zorba


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archer
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Post Number: 1209
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Sunday, December 11, 2005 - 10:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Zorba
Yes you can buy gold in many different size bars
I will buy more when it corrects to around 480
This is just one Sydney dealer i use-there are many others
http://www.jaggards.com.au/news/medusa/article_7.asp
gd


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greatdane
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Post Number: 207
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Sunday, December 11, 2005 - 11:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Zorba,
Here are some other ways to invest in gold.

Benefits include:
- No manufacturing premium payable.
- No insurance cost
- No storage fees.

The Perth Mint Certificate Program (PMCP) is operated by Gold Corporation, an international precious metals refining, minting and trading group wholly owned by the Government of the State of Western Australia.
The Program offers investors a unique range of precious metal storage options on attractive terms, under Government Guarantee. The PMCP is the only Government Guaranteed certificate program in the world.
The Perth Mint Certificate gives you legal title to precious metals deposited on either an Allocated (segregated) or an Unallocated (unsegregated) basis with The Perth Mint. The Certificate is in your name and identified by a Certificate number. The Perth Mint also assigns a client code to ensure the confidentiality and security of your storage account. http://www.perthmint.com.au/gc/depository/depository_layout2.asp?url=6

Article from World Gold Council’s Gold magazine:
“You don’t have to worry about physical storage or security as the
certificate gives you guaranteed proof of ownership and it is backed 100% by real gold”
http://www.perthmint.com.au/gc/depository/pmcp/WGCMagazineArticle.pdf


Another option:
The Perth Mint Gold Quoted Product ("PMG") is essentially a right created on-market by Gold Corporation to enable you to invest in gold on the Australian Stock Exchange ("ASX"). PMG is structured as a call warrant in accordance with the ASX Business Rules. Each PMG entitles you to acquire one hundredth of a troy ounce of fine gold on or before the Expiry Date of 31 December 2013 and may be exercised by you at any time before the Expiry Date.
PMGs trade on the ASX under the code ZAUWBA. PMGs can be purchased by investors only on the ASX. They cannot be purchased directly from Gold Corporation.
http://www.perthmint.com.au/gc/depository/perthmintgoldasx.asp
}


Regards, GreatDane

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hilarius
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Sunday, December 11, 2005 - 12:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good Afternoon

Using compound interest it would be interesting to calculate the current value of the UK government's seemingly "unprofitable" sale of gold

The opportunity cost of holding non-income producing gold could be enormous ... especially now

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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vermante
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Post Number: 518
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Sunday, December 11, 2005 - 05:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold - US$1000 an Ounce


Business Sunday speaks to Newmont's President Pierre Lassonde about the criminal charges against the company in Indonesia and his prediction of gold prices climbing to a staggering US$1000 an ounce


http://businesssunday.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=74203


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greatdane
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Post Number: 208
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Sunday, December 11, 2005 - 06:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



President Pierre Lassonde’s prediction of gold prices climbing to a staggering US$1000 an ounce in five to seven years.

- Silver will become a ‘poor’ man’s substitute for gold as POG head further north.


Regards, GreatDane

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zorba
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Post Number: 86
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Sunday, December 11, 2005 - 08:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GreatDane / Archer

Thanks for the info.
I am thinking about setting up some sort of instrument to be used as a growth savings account for my new-born grandson. I am thinking that gold would be the ideal product rather than depositing cash in a trust account.
Does anyone have any comments on my idea - would greatly appreciate it.

Zorba


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glenn
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Post Number: 46
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Monday, December 12, 2005 - 07:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Zorba,

I've thought a little about a similar sort of idea (admittedly kids are quite a few years off yet though). The one thing I want to look further into are endowment warrants. Basically you front up a deposit now and that buys a stake in a basket of various companies (banks, resources, etc.).

They are structured in such a way that over the following 10 years the dividends *should* make your "repayments" each year so that at the end of the 10 years you own the stock outright without any further outlay.

The ASX warrant course only covered them briefly when I attended it a few years ago, but sufficiently enough to pique my interest and I need to investigate it further. Thought it might be an idea for you also.


Smrt-trader

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carolyn
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Post Number: 34
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Monday, December 12, 2005 - 05:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



HI Glenn,I have used endowment warrants in the Super Fund, and they have gone very well. The best was AGL, and that was just paid out early. They are a good way to get leverage without borrowing, because you can't borrow in a Super Fund.
The only thing is they are a bit illiquid, so if you need to liquidate them, it can take a while. Not a problem if you want them for the long term though.
Carolyn


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ptman
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Tuesday, December 13, 2005 - 09:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Carolyn

Would be grateful for any more details on the endowment warrants please?

What is the best source of learning?
How do you choose?

Thanks, ptman


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carolyn
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Post Number: 35
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Tuesday, December 13, 2005 - 12:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ptman, i used Maacquarie Bank endowment warrants, which are listed on the ASX. If you went to the Macquarie site, I would presume there would be some information there on any new warrants, or a broker for info about existing warrants that can be bought on the ASX.
I choose the few I bought based on a mix of fundamental and technical pointers- good solid companies paying a dividend in an long term uptrend. Endowment warrants tend to only be available in the larger stocks anyway. But you still need to be careful- Sons of Gwalia is an example that comes to mind.
Hope that helps, Carolyn


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archer
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Post Number: 1210
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Tuesday, December 13, 2005 - 06:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This is a gold thread folks
Take it to an endowment thread please
--------
Zorba
In my opinion a brilliant idea
Almost every time the silver price corrects i buy a 1kg silver bar for my nieces
Gold will do fine as i think even pierre is being conservative but in my opinion silver will far outperform
as it usually does


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sabre
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Wednesday, December 14, 2005 - 06:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



510 is strong support, will it bounce off 510?


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archer
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Friday, December 16, 2005 - 10:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As for me I continue to buy Krugerrands--South African gold coins--and salt them away in a safe deposit box. My hope is that, mushroom fashion, they will thrive in the dark. I am speculating, of course. Gold has no price/earnings ratio. Nevertheless, I draw comfort from the knowledge that I'm speculating against those government employees called central bankers.

James Grant is the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. Visit his homepage at www.forbes.com/grant.
http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2005/1226/136.html?partner=commentary_newslett er


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captain_chaza
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Tuesday, December 20, 2005 - 02:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GOLD - Anyone for tea?

YES PLEASE!!
HMAS Incredulous

PS Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie
Time to Cover your TLS shorts???!!!???
'Seems the LOUDER they CRY the BETTER !!!


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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archer
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Wednesday, December 21, 2005 - 10:00 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well the correction is currently in force
I was 20 bucks out on the top which was an overnight event
and had no effect on stock prices anyway
I expect this thread to be pretty quiet for the next 3-6 months{Barring unforseen events} and then we will do it again
Dont miss this next leg
It will be the best so far


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archer
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Wednesday, December 21, 2005 - 11:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Heres why
---
A recent survey of institutional money managers by Barclays Capital confirms the subjective ad hoc research that my contacts in the institutional investment world have provided me.
In conversations over recent weeks, my contacts have said that they plan to put 5% of their massive pension fund, mutual fund and hedge fund assets into gold. Independently, it came to my attention today that Barclays Capital did a survey of their institutional clients and 70% of them said they would have 5% of their assets in gold in three years time.

This is extraordinary, and would require a huge price rise of existing gold mining shares to accommodate all of that money. For example, Newmont Mining has a market capitalization today of about $23 billion dollars, Barrick Gold about $15 billion, and these are the big companies in the public gold mining sector. I am researching the total market capitalization of all public gold mining companies but it cannot be very high. Certainly, it is a great deal smaller than $460 billion dollars.

The total investment capital in the world is rumored to be about $46-$50 trillion. Now 5% of $46 trillion is $2.3 trillion and 1% of $46 trillion is $460 billion. If the amount of gold shares purchased over the next three years equals even $460 billion it will cause the total value of all listed gold shares to skyrocket.


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kate
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Friday, December 23, 2005 - 08:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just caught up with all the posts.
Archer, in view of the above article, do really think there will be any more of a correction than there already has been? Also and again in view of the above article, why would you think gold will stay around its current price ie +/- below $500? Logic, not knowledge of gold trading patterns, would suggest that with the sort of institutional buying that's mentioned, there would be support at today's price and that the price will slowly but surely climb from here due to the supply-demand issue.

Captain C, glad to see you back. I'm not into shorts at the moment, esp TLS, there are a lot more interesting trades out there.

Regards
Kate


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archer
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Friday, December 23, 2005 - 09:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate
The funds are buying the gold shares not bullion
In the Dec 10 post where i noted that the U.S gold stock indexes were going nowhere despite gold rising 40 dollars
being a negative divergence
Now gold has corrected almost 50 dollars but the gold indexes are still VERY close to their highs indicating
accumulation of the shares as gold corrects
I still think gold will see 470-480 but the shares will be
well supported and may even go to new highs as the funds
finally recognise the bull market and accumulate shares


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kate
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Friday, December 23, 2005 - 10:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer, thanks for that, that certainly makes more sense. Also accounts for trades like BSG which shot up and instead of having the usual pullback are just consolidating. While gold is correcting is it best to stay away from the unhedged stocks?

Regards
Kate


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archer
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Friday, December 23, 2005 - 12:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



While gold is correcting is it best to stay away from the unhedged stocks?
No as they will benefit most when gold makes its move to 600
later next year







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captain_chaza
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Tuesday, December 27, 2005 - 05:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie

The Wind always Calls the Tune!
HOWEVER!

It would be handy to know those very very brave seaman who don't hedge their bets on the POG and The Big Buck "In Tandem"?

Only then will Sailing at sea on Quality Gold Producing Shares make any sense

Most/ All our exporters win when the AUSSIE battler fails against Uncle Sam
(whether it is Gold Copper or junk )

The problem is that they usually rise in tandem!!!!

Bugger!!!

This is why it gets really tough and most experienced tacticians turn to longer term framed tacks and excuses

If we could only get the Math right ????

If they only had the guts to write their contracts in $AUS things would be a lot different

No longer would we slowed down by this double hedged sail set-up and avoid most of those constant surprises

Salute and Gods speed to all NE in 06
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897




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