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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through January 10, 2006

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through January 10, 2006

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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza

Post Number: 1566
Registered: 02-2003

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Tuesday, December 27, 2005 - 08:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Come-in Spinner
Looks like the Chinese are hopping in

All we have to do now is wait patiently for the Poms and Yanks to carry on over-night without devaluing the Big Buck TOO much???
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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archer
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Post Number: 1245
Registered: 11-2002

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Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 09:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold and silver are at new highs in oz dollars
nearly 710 for gold and 12.25 for silver
----------------------------
Only one thing stands in the way of increasing the money supply (assuming it is fiat money).

That one thing is -- GOLD. This is why central banks fear and hate gold. As they continue on the path of increasing the money supply, gold rises. And rising gold is a red flag, a time-honored alarm system that announces to the world that something is wrong.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell122805.html







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kate
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Post Number: 235
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Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 11:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer, thanks again for another link.
I've been reading loads of articles, but still feel like I'm scratching the surface!
Gold stocks still going up, however most on thin volume. Don't know whether this is due to lack of traders or whether the 518 resistance will mean another pull back and those who are cautious are on the sidelines.
One article that I read this morning( another 321 article) suggested to buy quality gold stocks on any dip and not to sell at all. Not exactly how I trade, but found it interesting as I'm sure Rederob said the same thing ages ago. Maybe you need to have a separate trading plan for gold?

Captain C
"It would be handy to know those very very brave seaman who don't hedge their bets on the POG and The Big Buck "In Tandem"?"
I had a traumatic boating childhood and didn't learn "sea speak" hence my lack of understanding of your posts. Could you explain what you mean and does that take into account the underlying value, or lack of, the US dollar.

Regards
Kate


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captain_chaza
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Thursday, December 29, 2005 - 05:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy SCO Katie
Just hold onto your hat for the moment!
Lots to talk about when the wind stops blowing

capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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archer
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Saturday, January 07, 2006 - 10:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What we often hear about gold is that it is useless.
So by implication, if this stuff is useless, just hanging around gathering dust, earning no interest, a barbarous relic, it must also be worthless. Just like that broken old typewriter I have in the attic.

I have heard it said that gold has intrinsic value. How come gold has this magic "intrinsic value" but my old typewriter doesn’t? They are both useless, so they should both be worthless.

http://www.investmentrarities.com/wkcolumn.html


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kate
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Post Number: 247
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Saturday, January 07, 2006 - 11:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The article below may be of interest.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B69D9ABBB-0E6D-448A-B626-004D19 C722E8%7D&siteid=google

Why is the gold price quoted in US, Euros and Australian dollars, when other commodities are only quoted in US dollars?
I've been re-reading the base metal section, trying to understand the US dollar-commodity price-Australian dollar equation.
If the US dollar value falls, the value of commodities fall, which means we get less for those commodities. Does that result in a fall in the value of the Aust dollar which results in getting more for those commodities?

Regards
Kate


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rederob
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Saturday, January 07, 2006 - 11:42 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer
where is your chart on gold?
are you trying to key it in via the typewriter?
i heard gold was at a record close in the present cycle
does that mean oil prices are high, too?
is anyone following what's happening
the Captain appears at sea on this one!


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rederob
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Saturday, January 07, 2006 - 11:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



kate
in relation to changing forex prices for commodities, you need to determine the currency in which company contracts are denominated - US dollars is common, but not essential
where US dollar contracts prevail, then you will need to see if the company has currency hedging
or, the company may have hedges on rising or falling commodity prices
when you have worked it all out, please let us know
thanks

ps, buying unhedged producers in a bull market is the safe way to go - and it's a no brainer (and i didn't mention OXR anywhere did i!)


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archer
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Post Number: 1257
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Saturday, January 07, 2006 - 01:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Charts may not mean anything to gold anymore rederob
---
Through a Gold Bug's Eyes
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2006/pi200513_8038.htm


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captain_chaza
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Saturday, January 07, 2006 - 01:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Officer Red Robert

At sea?
If you read my post above "Come in Spinner"
You will see the exact moment I went to sea on gold
It is one of my proudest moments in real time
and may I add
WITH NO STOPS

Have a look and see what happened to the POG after that moment in history

I am just bloody unlucky AND BMO GBG have not gone through the roof yet and I didn't have enough money to buy the HIG

Seems I will now have to pay a very heavy price indeed to get back into the blue HIG on Monday

It's alright for you with lots of American Dollars to dabble around with those expensive heavyweights but we on the HMAS INCREDULOUS only have $100K to spend on sails

A Very Warm Welcome back Officer Bluey
A few days late but what the heck
At least it makes me feel a little bit more confident now

Salute for now
capn

PS Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie
Would you go overseas with $US or $??
Would you draw up an OS contract in $US or $??

We on the HMAS INCREDULOUS only sail the Globe with the Universal currency "The Big Buck"


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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captain_chaza
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Saturday, January 07, 2006 - 03:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Admiral Col'n and all well seasoned skippers

This reminds me very much of the mid+ 80's Bull Market
All the Markets roaring ahead in tandem with GOLD

We both know Ad's and maybe even a few other seasoned skippers that One of these masts is going to crack at some stage ?

But which one??

As the 1st Officer Spids always says
"Make hay while the sun shines and Don't worry about all the spot fires back on land"

Salute and Good Health
capn
I think I'll go back and have a look at my old charts


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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hilarius
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 03:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good Morning

Reading The Age for Monday 9th January (during a nightly comfort stop) I see the following :-

[Quote]
THE cost of the Iraq war could top $US2 trillion ($A2.65 trillion) after factoring in long-term health care for wounded US veterans, rebuilding a worn-down military and accounting for other unforeseen bills and economic losses, according to a new analysis.

The estimate by Nobel Prize-winning Columbia University economist Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard lecturer Linda Bilmes far exceeds projections made by the Bush Administration.

The figure is more than four times what the war was expected to cost taking in this year — about $US500 billion, according to congressional budget data.
[Unquote}

It prompts the following observations :-

(1) We are paying for the war through the petrol pump?

(2) Aren't wars supposed to end in peace?

(3) It seems a lot to pay for sending not enough troops

(4) Did no one think of sealing borders & a nightly curfew?

(5) Americans are psychologically incapable of limiting privately owned arms ... many think private arms are good

(6) I never dreamed I would be able to read the Melbourne Age while visiting the bath-room in Queensland

(7) It seems we can perform technological wonders while being totally incapable of ensuring a world at peace

(8) Does all this explain the flight to gold?

Blessings and er .. um ... Peace

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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vermante
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 08:01 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What’s Driving Gold?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/jan042006.html



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kate
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 08:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for posting the article Vermante, I'd like to see confirmation of what he says about oil producing countries building up their gold reserves. Certainly, Russia is, but from what I have read the Middle Eastern countries are ploughing their petro dollars into infrastructure and gold jewellery. Have you read anything else in support of what he says, what I read is a few months old so things may have changed since then.

Regards
Kate


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vermante
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 09:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate

If you fossick through the kitco site you might find what you are looking for. I dont believe you will get any sort of formal confirmation(legal sense) on who is buying gold and the quantities.( I could stand corrected)


Cheers

Vermante


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kate
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 10:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Vermante, I've been really enjoying myself fossicking all over the place! The potential disaster that is Iran is the main reason for asking the question, I wonder if movement of gold bullion to the Middle East could forewarn? Unfortunately I don't know enough, I could be talking the biggest load of rubbish!

Regards
Kate


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vermante
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 10:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate

If you did confirm that the Middle East was buying gold , what impact would that have on your investment/trading strategies.


What percentage or your hard earned would you RISK on a gold play.Would the knowledge that the Middle East is buying change your risk profile re- gold

I dont believe that you will confirm all the fundamental reasons for the rise in gold or how far gold will run .

Trading/investing is about taking and controlling risk.


Cheers

Vermante


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chart_rider
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 11:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer

Just try winning over your latest beau by offering her your old typewriter!

CR


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kate
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 12:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Vermante,
If the US went to war with Iran, god forbid, what would be the result to the oil, gold price and world share markets?
Wouldn't the only useful thing be gold bullion, gold stocks would probably drop along with the rest of the market.
Knowing that the Middle East was buying more gold would just result in me asking more questions.
I don't risk any more capital on a gold trade than any other trade.

Regards
Kate


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archer
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 08:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The SIMPLE reason gold seems to be rising (and this has always been the case) is that governments around the world are printing extraordinary amounts of paper money
Remember this:- the value of gold "IS NOT" rising,its the value of your paper money that is plummeting
Thats why it takes twice as many paper dollars to but the
same amount of gold as could be bought just 5 years ago
This is the same reason all commodities are rising
This is the same reason all collectibles are rising
People are buying anything that will store value better
than paper


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hilarius
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 08:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer

Inflation requires full productive capacity and scarcity of goods

Yet utilisation of factory capacity in the West is at its lowest for decades and Asia is flooding the world with cheaper goods

The conditions for price inflation do not exist

Where do you derive your figures for excess currency printing?

There appears to be no problem of too much currency chasing too few goods

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

(Message edited by Hilarius on January 09, 2006)


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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fibonacci
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 09:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



U.S. M3 is in a well above average growth spurt.

So much so U.S. is no longer going to regularly report figures.


John

You've got to
know when to hold 'em
know when to fold 'em.

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glenn
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Monday, January 09, 2006 - 10:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



From http://forum.truthout.org/blog/?op=displaystory;sid=2005/12/23/125529/28

"So what about M-3 the past week? The latest figures show that on a seasonally adjusted basis, M-3 rose 27.3 billion last week, a 14.0 percent annualized clip, and is up $76 billion over the past month, a 9.8 percent growth rate. But those are the massaged numbers. For the raw figures, fasten your seat belt. Are you ready? M-3 was increased $58.7 billion last week (that does not include the huge Repo infusions noted above), a 30.0 percent annualized rate of growth. For the past two week, the Fed added $93.5 billion to the money supply, a 24.0 percent annual clip. Over the past 6 weeks it is up $192.9 billion, a 16.7 percent Banana Republic hyperinflationary pace. This is nuts, folks - unless there is an incredible risk out there we are not being told about. That is a lot of money for the Plunge Protection Team's arsenal to buy markets - stocks, bonds, currencies, whatever. This level of irresponsible money supply growth makes shorting markets hazardous, yet at the same time says markets are at huge risk of declining. Maybe M-3 growth doesn't stop the decline this time. Should be a fascinating storm in 2006"


Smrt-trader

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kate
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Tuesday, January 10, 2006 - 08:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



That was some link, Glenn! Knew all about the M3 figures but had no idea about Iran changing over to Petro Euros.

Regards
Kate







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archer
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Tuesday, January 10, 2006 - 02:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hilarius
The others have provided the figures
Australias money supply increased over 10 % last year
so real inflation here is running about the same rate
-----
"There appears to be no problem of too much currency chasing too few goods"
You need to look at a chart of the CRB index

 
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GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through August 29, 2006rederob25 29-Aug-06  07:33 pm
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