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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through March 06, 2006

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through March 06, 2006

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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza

Post Number: 1628
Registered: 02-2003

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Wednesday, January 18, 2006 - 05:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Officer Archie

It's probably a good time to average down
BUT
Who's GOT THE GUTS?

And then WHO REALLY CARES !

"Don't ever Doubt the Doubter" Fr Hilarius always says

Streuth!
He could be right in the short term?
BUT he is fully trained in only Long Term Affairs
CHAOS! CHAOS! and MADNESS!

Time for some GOLF for me and a well earned rest?
It's all getting too hard

capn

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on January 18, 2006)


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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archer
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Username: archer

Post Number: 1276
Registered: 11-2002

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Wednesday, January 18, 2006 - 07:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A broken clock is right twice a day skip
Its just a dislike for gold,born from a bad trade
A sentiment common in this biz
He'll get over it







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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza

Post Number: 1635
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Friday, January 20, 2006 - 10:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Sea-Cadet-Officer Fr Hilarious

Could you please wake me up when I am Rich

I am getting V-e-r-y Tired

Salute and cheers

capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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Username: rederob

Post Number: 1672
Registered: 10-2002

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Friday, January 20, 2006 - 10:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



being in a secular bull market seems not to count for much as gold detractors have a bountiful time pronouncing its demise
at present gold looks like like closing over US$560 - a 25 year high - and while it is overbought, there is no rule saying it needs to immediately retrace
had the gold bull only a few months under its belt, then by all means forecast its "top" and suggest its collapse on fundamental grounds (whatever they might be)
yet gold has run north year on year on year on year and is still climbing
it seems folly to buck the trend - on what grounds?
if the "experts" on gold (and there are very few around) are to be believed, then gold remains in its early phase and we should expect significantly higher prices are ahead
technically, we have moved from the first "steady" phase of gold's bull into the second "sharper", more volatile phase
i have no idea how long it will last, but while there are no indicators suggesting that buying into gold holds grave dangers, staying on the bull seems safe enough
of course the active traders may continue to buy and sell at their whim, and they may do very well
if, however, we really are in the gold bull's early stages then one can take a position and just ride it for all it is worth until the warning signals spell sell
usefully, the "buy the dips" practice in this present phase are likely to deliver greater returns than the first phase as price movements will be significantly greater


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captain_chaza
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Username: captain_chaza

Post Number: 1642
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Sunday, January 22, 2006 - 12:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy there Officer "Bluey" Red Robert and others

What do you make out of the fall in the POG on Wall St?

If your are not already aware the DOW dropped the Equivalent in DOLLAR terms the total size of our little ASX "The complete fleet lost at sea"

So why did not Gold move accordingly as a safe haven?

The only thing I can think of is
GOLD = Safe Haven Qualities + or - Industrial Metal Qualities

I note that our Glamour Industrial metal COPPER seems to have faulted and has probably topped "Chartwise"

I also noticed the The BIG BUCK losing more of its BIG status and probably weaken even further over the next 3 days

Yep! 3 days
I feel this storm is well and truly set in

Salute for now while I put my thinking cap on
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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Post Number: 1674
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Sunday, January 22, 2006 - 01:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold Captain
First, I will pronounce the BIG Buck "dead in the water".
It's day in the sun is all but over - sure it will give the occasional signs of life for years to come, but overall it has passed its use by date.
This will present a conundrum for unhedged producers who see the AUD rising to offset POG's ongoing windfall gains, although they will quickly realise that the price increases of this precious metal will make currency differentials irrelevant.
As for the notion that a day in the life of POG should be seen as trend setting, or greatly important; I can only say that in hindsight the long term trendline will render the event trivial.
As for gold being perceived as an industrial metal; maybe, if women that wear gold jewelry as regarded as "industrious".
As for copper having "topped" chartwise; maybe, if you work in short time frames. Copper has had an amazing run - puts gold to shame in recent years - and is deserving of a retrace or consolidation or both. But copper is very likely to continue its run higher as market tightness for the metal remains and available inventory of the metal is geographically mismatched right now.
And you believe the storm has well and truly set in.
Certainly the DOW's Friday demise will shake the allords into some corrective action, but our market is less overpriced than the US market.
True masters of the sea should be using stormy weather to their advantage knowing full well that fewer men have such skills.
Plain sailing is for plain men.


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rederob
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Post Number: 1681
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Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 08:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Elsewhere tonight the Captain poses a technical dilemma in that silver and gold seem to be good buying opportunities.
Which one to choose?
As one is not limited for choice, buy both.
And go back through the past few year's posts on this thread for a compelling justification.
That's as technical as I can be.


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captain_chaza
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Post Number: 1660
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Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 09:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



So Officer Bluey

We agree on one thing

When you come to a fork in the road-
YOU TAKE IT!

I think they all know we Aussies are on Holidays and just want to keep us out of the play

Oh! Able-Seaman #54
You evidently don't read my posts otherwise you would have seen my recent IC chart on the XAO

I assume you have a charting package that suits your own particular needs and abilities but I posted it none-the-less

If you need a chart that demonstrates the effects the Asian Bird flu had on the DOW in the very early part of the 20th Century then I may well be the only chartist in the world that could produce it

And One day I might just publish it somewhere!
So There!
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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captain_chaza
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Wednesday, January 25, 2006 - 09:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Here we Go again officer ICE

Crikey! Another nice gust of wind!
It would be nice to catch the Yanks out while they are asleep
Hmmmm!
Talk about being unlucky?
I really doubt whether any of my Gold stocks have any Gold

However they do look as if they are really trying very hard to find some as a matter of urgency!
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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archer
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Post Number: 1297
Registered: 11-2002

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Thursday, January 26, 2006 - 08:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Where;s gold goin tonight 570,580,590
and my fave silver 10 bucks


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captain_chaza
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Saturday, January 28, 2006 - 09:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy there sweet talking Able-Seaman Bluey and your 1st mate sea-cadet Archie

I am out of here!

I think It might be a good idea to take profits before those greedy Landlubbers think of it first?
Hmmm!

Things are looking grim on this front when a few of those telcos start looking good?

Salute and Bon Voyage

capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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archer
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Thursday, February 02, 2006 - 09:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



If the seasonal trend is accurate gold and silver will
top this week


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robsrubbish
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Thursday, February 02, 2006 - 09:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Archer ,
You wrote
" If the seasonal trend is accurate gold and silver will
top this week"

Could you expand on the seasonal trend? Are there any books you might be aware of that give details of this?
I would like to backtest and investigate this in some detail so any material or detailed explanation would be fantastic?
Thanks
MichaelB


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archer
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Post Number: 1318
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Saturday, February 04, 2006 - 11:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi robsrubbish
There is an explanation of seasonal trend here
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=6&post=85996#POS T85996


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archer
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Post Number: 1324
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Sunday, February 05, 2006 - 08:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold Finally Doubles

The next doubling of its price
will be a lot easier and faster
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/embry020306.html


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archer
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Post Number: 1331
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Wednesday, February 08, 2006 - 08:38 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The seasonals strike again


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msparks
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Wednesday, February 08, 2006 - 10:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi there Mr Archer

Compliments yet again .

Are you working alone or in a group ?
I notice the word we in a few posts.

Certainly your skills stand out from the crowd.


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archer
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Thursday, February 09, 2006 - 08:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No Msparks
I've learnt from many but work alone
I have tried groups but i find it too distracting and it
seriously affects my trading


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fox_terrier
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Saturday, February 11, 2006 - 08:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

A very interesting article for u gold bugs.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-4585.htm


Cheers
FT


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archer
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Friday, February 17, 2006 - 05:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"The monetary inflation barometer (M-3 money supply) has gone ballistic. The M-3 money supply – the one that the Fed will stop reporting in March – has climbed USD 56.3 billion over the previous ‘single’ week after having risen USD 92.4 billion over ‘three’ weeks and USD 178 billion over ‘seven’ weeks. The acceleration is very worrisome and reminds us of what the Weimar Republic did from 1920-23 and ultimately destroyed the German currency."

J.P. Schumacher

So long, U.S.Dollar


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sabre
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Saturday, February 18, 2006 - 12:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Williams %R has come out of oversold territory and is rising, gold could be making a new move now after correcting...

554 high last night nice


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rederob
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Saturday, February 18, 2006 - 08:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



sabre
I have adopted the notion that gold will rise to around $700 by year's end, which implies and average weekly rise of $4.
This is an irrational approach, but lets me see when things get out of kilter: I thought a $70 rise in 5 weeks to end January was "out of kilter": That would have had gold over $1000 by year's end!!!
While it's irrational, it's also very simple. The maths can work themselves clearer in thew next few months, and I can revise my thinking: Could we be looking closer to $800 at year's end, and be targeting an average $6 weekly increase?
I know that I am happy for gold to be its present price, and would like it to be within a $540-$560 range for several more weeks as periods of consolidation consistently give rise to nice breaks upwards.
Note that last weeks prices were the lowest in 5 weeks, yet the psychological $550 figure is intact.
The other excellent aspect of recent price action is gold expressed in Australian dollar terms: We remain over AU$745 which is almost AU$200 more than the same time last year. Unfortunately the new Australian equivalents of International Accounting Standards (AIFRSs), adopted from 1 July 2005 will realise hedge losses, to the extent that many gold producers making great profits will actually report paper losses. This one off effect will balance itself next year but may constrain the perceived capacity of producers to declare dividends this financial year.


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sabre
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Sunday, February 19, 2006 - 01:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Colin thinks it will go up, see his trading diary for the week, double bottom, possible target of 575.

I still think gold is undervalued, since its been a dog for over 20 years, has some catching up to do, and the hedge funds don't have much else to run up since everything else is at high levels.

Even if gold stays above 450 though, a lot of these gold companies will make massive amounts of money, its great times for the goldies


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thommo78
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Sunday, February 26, 2006 - 06:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi all .. POG continues to march on .. i see a breakout of rising channel on the weekly chart .. those with gold exposure would wonder if this run is getting overcooked (see rsi in oversold territory and MACD rolling over on the weekly). One must respect the trend till it bends though .. indicators and patterns on the daily suggest POG poised for another leg up??




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sabre
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Monday, February 27, 2006 - 10:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks like MACD is about to cross, if it does soon, then we could see another new leg starting up?


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sabre
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Thursday, March 02, 2006 - 09:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MACD crossover, its time to run!

http://i2.tinypic.com/oua8ma.png


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archer
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Thursday, March 02, 2006 - 09:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_05/russell030106.html


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sabre
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Thursday, March 02, 2006 - 09:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



$US about to crash as well? MACD -ve cross

http://i2.tinypic.com/ouawe1.png


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colin_twiggs
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Friday, March 03, 2006 - 01:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sabre & Thommo,

Please read the following regarding Posting images from other software.

Thanks,
Colin


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sabre
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Sunday, March 05, 2006 - 04:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/maund030406.html

Clive Maund is now giving the thumbs up. I think from the MACD we have a few weeks of movement coming up.

Gold senses trouble in the world? Or is it the beginnings of technical breakout of the $US with the Iran's Oil bourse opening in the near future?


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archer
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Sunday, March 05, 2006 - 06:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Still think gold and silver are sideways to down for the
next few months at least


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rederob
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Sunday, March 05, 2006 - 09:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer
Yes, you think that.
But Mr Bush is turning up the heat on Iran, and oil prices are rising.
There is no other good news in the Middle East.
There is a good chance Bernanke will raise interest rates higher again on the threat of inflation and need to bring in more buyers of the dollar.
Yet the dollar weakened during the week!
This is usually a quiet time for the precious metals, although the recent trend of each is up.
Moreover, there really is nothing bearish on the horizon for them, so maybe sideways, maybe a slight retrace, but more likely a new high by end on month in my books.
As per usual - we both need to wait.........


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archer
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Monday, March 06, 2006 - 08:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Its the highest probability now
Seasonally weak gold
Seasonally strong U.S.Dollar
Long U.S.Dollar


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rederob
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Monday, March 06, 2006 - 09:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer
It's "global warming"
The seasons are being turned on their heads.
How about we take a position fo the end of month and see who is closer?
That way we have some ownership of our respective positions.
I go for gold at $595 by 31 March.
Now over to you.........


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archer
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Monday, March 06, 2006 - 09:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



570







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goldbug
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Monday, March 06, 2006 - 09:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



610 for my money ....

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