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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through July 15, 2006

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea? » Archive through July 15, 2006

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sparticus
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Username: sparticus

Post Number: 34
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Saturday, June 10, 2006 - 04:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This slow slide is a strange one, coz I have a feeling that, rather than being just a temporary correction, its actually a slow kind of crash. In the reading I've done to try to figure out whether it will bottom or just keep on sliding, one particular article by David Chapman, at Union Securities stands out.

I'd be interested in other views of what he says

http://news.goldseek.com/UnionSecurities/1149879892.php


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robbo
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Saturday, June 10, 2006 - 09:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



sparticus
i think it is pure speculation as to what the markets will do in future. That there will be a reversal in trend is certain - what we dont know is how it will play out. However we can look at the facts as they exist today which may give us some clues:
1. daily trading volumes are much greater today than they were 10 or more years ago
2. There are many more traders/investors in the markets today -
3. there are more types of investment products and managed funds than ever before
4. derivatives of all sizes and shapes are available to almost anyone
5. The value of derivatives are huge - some 250 trillion US dollars i believe - most are to do with interest rates.
6. Most of trades are program trades -65% in US stock markets i understand
7. Information is transmitted instantly - worldwide
8. most traders/ investors are more aware of at least some of the issues which may effect their portfolio - people have become more savvy about financial and economic issues
9. the huge growth in hedge funds and the leverage available to them
10. the internet allows many traders/investors to have access to views expressed by financial commentators and technical analysts.
11. Margin debt is as high as it was in 1987 in US and Australia and trending higher - may have slowed in recent weeks

There are probably other facts which may influence outcomes.

The degree of some of the recent stock market falls in many markets where have severe - 95% or more of stocks down in at least 3 days over recent weeks. I would think the risks of some sizeable falls once the primary uptrends are reversed are higher than minor falls (less tha 1%)over along period. On the other hand i think the bear market will of a secular nature and take maybe 5- 10 years to complete.Whatever happens there will be always be corrections- markets zig zag in both directions.
Finally if the vast majority of people think the same they will probably be proved wrong eventually.
Regards
Robbo







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justice
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 10:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MMN is in fricken fire-sale mode.


... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

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justice
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 12:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



POG at <= $595 is a distinct possibility.
Your wish may be granted rederob.

(Message edited by justice on June 13, 2006)


... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

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archer
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 01:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Justice
I was dealing with Jaggards up until a few months ago
when they stuffed me around big time
http://www.jaggards.com.au
There service was good up till then
Since then ive been getting gold and silver bars from
Australian Bullion Company--0292314511
The women there are very helpful and efficient
Coins ive been buying from web coin auction sites


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justice
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 02:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thankyou archer,
I've found a merchant who's rates appear top notch.
Let me know what you think.
I recon there's still time to be choosey.

http://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/
http://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/Pricesheet.pdf


... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

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sparticus
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 03:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer and Justice,

I'm curious about why you don't use the Perth Mint, in particular their Gold certificates.

In contemplating buying gold for the first time, I've been asking around and the Perth Mint Certificate program is almost universally recommended


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justice
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 03:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey sparticus,
I remember you mentioning the Perth Mint before.
I just had another look.
It's all in metric. What's the conversion factor?
How do you compare prices?

(OK, you did say the the certificate program. My error. )

Funnily enough Jaggards is in their approved dealer list.

Oh yeah.
The also www.e-gold.com but the FED is likely to confiscate eventually - as an afterthought.

(Message edited by justice on June 13, 2006)

(Message edited by justice on June 13, 2006)


... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

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sparticus
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 03:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hmm ... nope, I don't think i've mentioned it before coz I wasn't really interested in buying physical gold before ...

The thing I'm interested in though is the certificates - http://www.perthmint.com.au/gc/depository/depository_layout2.asp?url=1

Thye're 2% commission to buy and 1% commission to sell.

I've looked at the Ainslie site that was mentioned, and could find no mention of commissions, so I'm just wondering which way to jump, coz it's a physical gold play that I'm headed for either way.


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archer
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 03:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Justice
Looks fine,let me know what the service is like
As far as time is concerned the best time to buy the pms
is July
Weve seen what gold did during the first 6 months of the
year and that was seasonally weak time.
The latter half of the year is the strong time so imagine
what gold is capable of in the next 6-7 months
Sparticus
Personal preference,i prefer to have the shiny,sparkling
product rather than a paper certificate
Also i buy it with cash and in the times ahead when every
one wants to buy gold and silver i will sell for CASH
if you know what i mean
There is a great quote at the site Justice listed above
In 1928, George Bernard Shaw, no conservative, summed up his attitude perfectly in “the Intelligent Woman’s Guide to Capitalism and Socialism”: you have to choose between trusting the natural stability of gold and the honesty and intelligence of members of the government, And, with due respect for these gentlemen, I advise you, as long as the capitalist system lasts, to vote for gold”.


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justice
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 04:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



sparticus,
there is no commission with ainslie.
quote buy/sell price is as per above pricelist.


... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

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archer
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Post Number: 1568
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 04:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Justice
For your info ABC today quoted me 516 for 1kg silver
verses ainslies 522


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sparticus
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 04:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hmm, the old apocalypse trick...yep, I suppose there is that to consider, and if it comes to that, you're right - paper is for lighting fires ... physical product rules.

No commissions with Ainslie - sounds like they trade it like a currency. So ... you just walk in, put your money down and then walk out with a gold bar. I might go with that.

I'm in Victoria so I'll have to get it delivered ... but I'll figure it out... thanks all...you've been most helpful ...


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justice
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 04:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



right o archer,
now just gotta try and catch the right moment.


... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

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wjbennet
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Tuesday, June 13, 2006 - 05:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi All
just a note about the perth mint, many many years ago i purchased a quantity of silver through the mint just before the bunker - hunts tried to corner the silver market and the silver price went through the roof. I had no trouble at all they stored it over there as transportation was very difficult and even in those crazy times i sold it easily and every thing ran smoothly so i would definitally use them again
regards
wjb

(Message edited by wjbennet on June 13, 2006)


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rederob
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Wednesday, June 14, 2006 - 05:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello all bugs
I can't say it's safe to go back in the water as there still are sharks circling.
But they pretty well have fed from the top and off the bottom - which I think we hit today (and will know in the next few weeks.
I think the selling carnage is about to end and we should see upside from July that will spark another rally in tandem with POO.
I'm definitely going to shed some - but only "some" - gold shares after POG hits $800 (which hopefully will be before my inevitable passing!).
Luv them corrections.


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mrbrown66
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Wednesday, June 14, 2006 - 08:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer, any thoughts on todays action? This is surely a good buying opportunity. The current POG is only slightly above the prices I bought in at back in Feb, the pain... oh the pain...


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archer
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Wednesday, June 14, 2006 - 10:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It looks like a capitulation low
I think it will build a base for 4-6 weeks


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tryhay
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Saturday, June 17, 2006 - 06:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I am not sure it is safe to go back in the water yet either ~ though the buying opportunity is getting closer. The chart suggests the (Up Down) correction is substantially over, but we are likely to see some consolidation to come (particularly in the DOW and even the XAO).

Comment in the popular press about hedge fund managers and their annual bonusses might see some up before the end of financial year but I expect choppy price until August.

I didnt sell and go on holiday (though I did downsize ) and diversify into property


daily


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justice
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Sunday, June 25, 2006 - 10:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



C'Mon North Korea - test something naughty. I'm getting impatient.


... God only knows what I'd be without you ... :-)

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archer
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Tuesday, July 04, 2006 - 10:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Here is an excellent explanation as to why inflation is
going to be a LARGE problem
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/HF27Dj01.html


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hilarius
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Tuesday, July 04, 2006 - 10:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Archer

So why is everyone moaning and groaning about higher interest rates which keep the lid on inflation ?

Inflation = too much money chasing too little productive capacity

Deflation = too much productive capacity chasing too little money (too few customers)

I am sure General Motors would love to sell more cars ... how many plants have they closed?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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perler59
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Tuesday, July 04, 2006 - 01:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"Instead, the number more closely represents the costs of holding to an ever declining standard of living." What an excellent comment on current so called "inflation" figures


http://sttc.net.au/~stever

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archer
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Tuesday, July 04, 2006 - 03:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius
Because interest rates around the world were kept low
(artifically)for so long that people thought those rates
were the norm
After 17 rate rises in a row the U.S is only now just
at the average rate
-------
Inflation = too much money chasing too little productive capacity

Deflation = too much productive capacity chasing too little money (too few customers)
If the above were true we would have deflation
We DONT, so its no use clinging to that theory
In the 70s rates went from 5-18% before they contained
inflation while gold went 200-850
They wont do that again till its too late
The 'flation is on its way and it will roll over all of
us like a tsunami(;->







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archer
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Saturday, July 15, 2006 - 01:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Is gold about to make a REAL move
Approaching seasonal strength time (;->
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/07/14/cngold14.xml&m enuId=242&sSheet=/money/2006/07/14/ixcity.html

 
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