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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

GOLD-Anyone for tea?

Chart Forum » Gold & Precious Metals » GOLD-Anyone for tea?

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Gold - Close to another runscarlettsmith69429 29-May-19  02:52 pm
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rederob
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Bug
Neat work - the great unwashed can remain oblivious.
If the pattern repeats I am in for early retirement, and you?

Tonight's price action is presently volatile - swinging quickly through a $10 range and oscillating madly without conviction.

Would be nice to close the week on 4 digits - thumbs up!


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goldbug
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A few days out Rederob ....



Regards

The BUG

PS Go the Lihir ....







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goldbug
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Could someone please explain to GOLD that the $US is getting hammered.

Regards

The BUG


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rederob
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Bug
Gold, a week later, is doing the hammering.
Last week POG closed the week at above $1000 for the first time ever, and with 2 days to go it is likely to become 2 weeks in a row.
Just a few dollars off blue sky, so the real "breakout" is ahead.


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justice
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what happened to the POG the last time the IMF announced a 403 metric ton sale?

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2009/POL091809A.htm


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rederob
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Gold has cleared $1032 and is now in "bluesky":



(Message edited by rederob on October 06, 2009)


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justice
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Going to sell your LHG now rob?


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rederob
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justice wrote on Wednesday, October 07, 2009 - 02:27 am:

Going to sell your LHG now rob?



The plan is to wait about 15 weeks from the breach of $1000. So maybe December/January, but not later unless there is a further faltering of the US dollar nearer that time.


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goldbug
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Good Day,

GOLD rising in all currencies ...
Haven't seen that in a while ...
Hold onto your hats !!!!

Regards

The Bug


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rederob
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Bug
POG is in an unusual holding pattern in the plus $1020 range after breaking above that level a month ago.
On chart patterns alone POG is now overdue for its next "strong" period.
In AUD terms POG is some $400 below its peak of earlier this year, so a marked increase in USD terms should not come as any surprise.


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goldbug
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extract from:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/china/article6936926.ece# cid=OTC-RSS&attr=1185799

"China is poised to vault ahead of India and become the world’s biggest gold consumer as small investors scramble to defend their wealth against inflation and a ballooning middle class falls in love with the “portable bank vault” of jewellery.

The country’s rumbling hunger for gold is expected to grow in coming weeks amid predictions that the People’s Bank of China could join other emerging market central banks by becoming a significant buyer of bullion for its reserves."

Regards

The Bug


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hailoh
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This is a nasty looking chart for a goldbug. It could be even worse for miners if the $US declines too.


AMEX goldbugs index


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silverbug
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Hailoh, do you see the same problem with this one.
Murray


..Murray

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archer
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Hailoh
when i look at that chart i see an inv H+S forming
with a target of 850 (;->


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hailoh
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Wow, Silverbug - where did that come from?

Archer: I'll make do with a double top for now and see how things pan out. I could show support/resistance levels as low as US$700 but there is so much brazen manipulation at Government level now that I don't know.(Maybe its always been like that but we are more aware of it now.)

Suffice to say I have identified some gold stocks I would buy at target prices well below current levels because I still see gold rising further after a pullback.


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doctor_stock
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ahoy captain chaza

come down from the crow's nest, there no sign of your old crew of goldbug and ingot54. Looks like they've taken profits and retired, and also pyramided into more long gold positions

how high can gold go? not sure how far back your charts go but, "Gold was $19,000 an ounce in May 1781". What would that be in today's dollars?

gold has been used as a currency for 50 centuries, the US dollar for 2.2 centuries so perhaps that's why there's more buyers than sellers in the gold market

The world consumption of new gold produced is about 50% jewelry, 40% investments and 10% industry

may the wind always be at your back
doc stoc


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goldbug
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Hello doctor stock

please read:

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/China-to-beat-India-in-gold-consumption-3393 7-3-1.html

We are only just warming up !!!

Regards

The BUG


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doctor_stock
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Hi Bug

That Commodity Online article is interesting.

As you know the trick is always to cut your losses and ride your winners.....perhaps the Chinese will leave the US Dollar and go to gold?

Have you tried the Kitco forum? I'm wondering if it's worth a Captain Cook?

Do you trade gold - if so who do you use pls?

Cheers
DS


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archer
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Dont leave home without it (;-))

http://www.youtube.com/user/perthmintbullion#p/a/f/0/-HaqwFJj4ZY

Enquiries at The Perth Mint from a multitude of banks and other professional buyers has been intense since gold’s correction to under $1,400 an ounce. Dow Jones Newswire reporter James Campbell summed up the situation neatly after I spoke to him earlier this week. You may have seen the story, which has been picked up by a number of media outlets. If not, James has given me permission to reproduce his report here:

DJ Physical Gold Demand Exceeds Current Availability - Perth Mint
Tue Jan 11 01:26:37 2011 EST

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)–Demand for gold bullion from Australia’s Perth Mint has been unrelenting since gold’s price dropped below $1,400 an ounce, a senior Mint official said Tuesday.

"At the moment demand is such that we cannot meet all the enquiries that we are getting," said Nigel Moffatt, Treasurer of the Perth Mint, one of the world’s largest gold refiners and distributors.

"Demand for our coins and medallions is strong, but the biggest demand is coming from banks and traders looking for kilo bars," he told Dow Jones Newswires.

One-kilogram bars are the most popular trading instrument in Asia’s physical market.

Demand doesn’t appear to be directly related to the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year, with buying also coming from in from India, Moffatt said.

"The way I see it at this point, it is because of the current correction in the price rather than anything else," he said.

Spot gold has declined 3.1% since the start of 2011 to $1,376/oz during Asian trade Tuesday after hitting a low of $1,353/oz Friday.

Moffatt said premiums for physical gold had "doubled" in the past week, but declined to provide any figures.

Mitsui Global Precious Metals said in a report that gold was trading at premiums of up to $3 an ounce over the spot price in Hong Kong Monday.


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archer
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The East remember thier history and knowing whats coming are scrambling to protect there wealth
The west hardly remembers what happened yesterday and cant
understand why gold and silver are up 5 and 8 fold respectively

CHINA
Malls witnessing gold rush as shoppers fear inflation
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-02/28/content_12085402.htm


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archer
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Oh and doctor stock you are not quite correct with that quote
"gold has been used as a currency for 50 centuries, the US dollar for 2.2 centuries"
In those 2.2 centuries the U.S has already gone thru 2 currencies and this is the 3rd attempt
Regards


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gdd3
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Hi Archer and Goldbug,

Just wondered if you also think POG is going into a "well earned breather" phase. Simple T/A on both the Weekly and Daily Charts would suggest so but of course the question is if it is to continue to do so , how far.....$1380 or even $1350/$1340? Both Charts clearly show divergence which appears to be 'strenghtening'(i.e. more likely more price weakness). Two different Fibo 100% swing-range extension targets(one on the weekly and one on the daily) seemed to have 'capped' the highs at/near recent highs. Any opinion?

Weekly Chart...




Daily Chart...




Cheers
Dolphin


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billt
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hi Guys

Interesting charts Dolphin - looks like a consolidation pullback may occur at some point.

My thought is that we may have one last leg north in the markets (ala G4) and POG may pull back a piece during that rally.

Whilst posting, here is a little gold stock which has the early Andean 'smell' about it - check out Dec Half Year figures... GOR (Gold Road Resources). Only useful in a simultaneous XJO & POG rally of course.....

bill


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archer
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Hi Dolphin
Sorry for the delayed response
Ive been in Japan since just before the earthquake to do
some skiing and visit some friends
Im hoping for a pullback here as i think it would be more
constructive for gold in the longer term but its been
strong considering its a seasonally weak period for gold
To add to your T/A is also the fact that this leg up from
680 to 1460 = 780 move which equals the first drive up
from 250 to 1030
Would love to see a 120-150 dollar decline here bottoming
in 6-8 weeeks and i think that would set up a 20-25%
advance in the latter half of the year


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gdd3
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Hi Archer,

Bet you have some 'interesting/enlightening' stories about your trip to Japan. Have many Japanese 'friends' myself and was concerned in the early 'tsunami aftermath' for their safety but glad to hear all are well and largely not affected.

I'm hoping you are right about your 'wished' view on the POG... both directions and levels particularly if it 'drags' Silver down too to good re-entry levels. However, with a +ve cross on the Wkly MACD and a clear break this week of the 4 month trading range(~ $1320 - $1425), shown in orange, it looks to be going higher sooner than later to maybe test that Price Hotspot of near $1525/30...a good confluence of 'resistances/M/M.targets' coming in there as shown.




Cheers
Dolphin


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sumamura
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26th april 2011 - 7 am

look at how silver cracked.

in yesterdays weekly commodity levels, i had mentioned strategy to go short - pl hv a look ......

www.sumamura.com > login > modules

u can see weekly as well as monthly levels .....

pl let me hv yr comments ......


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sumamura
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SILVER outlook ---- www.sumamura.com

SILVER - after the fed meeting dollar index slipped by more than a percent giving a big spike in all commodities incl silver. i had expected bernanke and co to turn a bit hawkish and strengthening of the dollar - hence i was expecting a big move down side .... never the less as expected - we hv got a big move.

dont go long now till u see a new all time high on silver closer to 50 dollars as the bullish undertone is somewhat dented and needs strong re-inforcement ... u can selectively go short with 3 / 4 % stoplss ... risk reward is still very favourable .......


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sumamura
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look at my monthly trading levels for MAY 2011for world indices / commodities



monthly levels - may 2011


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sumamura
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silver .... www.sumamura.com

last sunday ..... 24th april ..... i had written that silver can go up by 3 % on monday but that wud be heaven sent shorting opportunity with 3 % stoploss for target of 36 dollars in 8/12 weeks .......

to day we r on the 9th trading day from 24th and todays low is below 35 dollars .......

cheers to all those who traded on my suggestion .......

now i wl hv a look at the charts again over the weekend and come out with the next levels.


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sumamura
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pl go to http://www.sumamura.com/musings to read my latest comments about trading silver .......


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sumamura
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for weeklyevels for trading commodities pl go to www.sumamura.com > musings

you may also check archives for previous several weeks levels

pl backtest the tradeability of levels by comparing with 5 or 10 mins intraay charts as 15/20 mins consistent break is considered as trigger


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sumamura
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Thursday, May 12, 2011 - 05:34 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



my intra silver levels were posted today on www.sumamura.com > musings

u can hv a look even now ...

they just rocked ..... keep watching this tab or messages tab on my website

u wl come across some interesting posts ..... and i may not be able to alert u everytime ... like i missed to alert today ..... i did send alert to all my linked in groups ... yahoo groups ..... google groups .....


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sumamura
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todays silver intra levels posted on www.sumamura.com > musings .......

yesterdays levels also gave good returns ......


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sumamura
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i see silver trading with in 3 dollars with 34.5 dollars as mean ..... in the short term .......

my weekly levels are posted on my website ...... last week they made very good money .... what about this week ... lets wait and watch ..... check www.sumamura.com > musings tomorrow morning .......


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sumamura
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silver intra levels posted on www.sumamura.com > messages ......


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sumamura
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commodity weekly and silver intra levels posted on www.sumamura.com > messages ...... pl hv a look ......


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gdd3
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Its been some years since someone has posted a chart on the Real Gold Price(taking inflation and currency movements in to consideration) so I was able to "drag" these two charts up for your perusal.

Central Banks continue to increase their holdings of gold, to shore up their financial systems, with developing countries increasing their annual gold bullion purchases significantly to meet these targets.

The more important graph below(RHS one) shows that China has as little as 3% of their total reserves sitting as gold bullion, this is compared to the US and Germany which has 70% of their reserves sitting as gold bullion.

Even a small increase by the Chinese Reserve Bank to 10% holdings as gold bullion, due to the significant size of the Chinese economy, wound mean millions of ounces of gold would be needed for this increase in gold holdings as a percentage of Total Reserves occurs.

....


Cheers
Dolphin}


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sumamura
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silver intra levels posted on www.sumamura.com > messages .....


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sumamura
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SILVER INTRA in dollars ..... posted at 3.45 pm ...

short / long - 37.80 / 38.07

stoploss - opposit

Long target - 38.34/38.61/38.88/39.15

Short target - 37.53/37.26/36.99/36.72


www.sumamura.com

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archer
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Hi Dolphin
Yikes you are correct about the Suma taking over here
Colin-i didnt think this was allowed?? Advertising??

Gold at over 2200 will equal the 850 high adjusted
for inflation but going from memory gold hit 190s in the 1870s so inflation adjusting that figure would be much
much higher
I think by the time the PM bull is finished it will rival
or better any of the bubble markets weve seen in our lifetimes but just a little unsure what will happen in the shorter term (next few months)
Gold held up very well last night but i think it will crack soon and maybe test the old tops around 1420-1430
But then again ive been expecting a correction for a while
now (mainly due to the underperformance of the gold stocks
both here and overseas)and its not happened

Yep visiting Japan is always an enlightening experience for me
The Japanese people are wonderful,the food is always fantastic and everything always works
Public toilets are always clean and getting around on pushbike(my favourite means of transport in the cities)
is easy and safe-no road rage there
I hope they can recover quickly from the recent disaster

Archer


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sumamura
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@ archer ..... when i was posting a table ..... ready to eat variety .... nobody had any objection ......

but now i am asking to heat or microwave something .... there is a problem ..... funny isn't it ......

anyway, whatever links i hv posted ... they r completely free ...... and although i hv a paid subscription ... same data becomes available to free members ... just with some lag .......

these levels r working wonders ..... just look at them in archives section on my website ....and back test .....

@collins ..... if u hv any problem with my posts, do let me know .....may be u can send an email .....


www.sumamura.com

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sumamura
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JUNE 2011 monthly levels .....

i am sure everyone will welcome this ! ! !

june 2011 monthly levels


www.sumamura.com

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heath
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I believe the gold/oil ratio is based on brent vis a vis WTI. but would someone confirm or comment


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heath
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Please comment on Monex as a source metal purchases


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ehmu
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By the way CME just hiked gold margin requirements by 22% -- be careful.

h


_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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archer
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Wow i cant believe its been a decade since this thread started
Here is a great article for those that think Europe is in trouble
It has serious problems of course but they will be dwarfed
by the problems coming America's way in the near future
I had many chuckles when the MSM starting calling the gold market a "Bubble" in the run to 1900 last year
Looking back from the future that so called Bubble move will look like a tiny blip in a massive parabolic move that still lies somewhere ahead


-----------The Magnitude of the Mess We're In -----------
The next Treasury secretary will confront problems so daunting that even Alexander Hamilton would have trouble preserving the full faith and credit of the United States.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303561504577497442109193610.html


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ingot54
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Monday, September 24, 2012 - 10:13 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yep - excellent article Archer.

Gold is the only live trade I have atm, but looking at shorting EURAUD any time now.

Gold Daily

EDIT: Notwithstanding the current breather today (not shown on Friday's chart posted above) the latest round of QE (III) sparked new life temporarily into Gold.

However, with the news that the BOJ had agreed to print Y10trillion, and possible further shorting near resistance by the JP Morgan cheer squad and friends, suddenly the weak hands are trembling!

Would need to see the latest COT positions in Gold, to confirm this view - haven't looked yet.

We now have:

BOJ ... printing ...
FED Reserve/US Treasury ... printing
BOE ... printing more than USA as % of GDP
ECB ... printing

As a currency trader principally, I now see the majors all printing. That leaves the AUD, NZD, CAD, SGD, CHF relastively stronger, and more "likely" to rally as the majors try to weaken themselves to death.

Further, we have the SNB and the BOJ both intervening to put a ceiling on their currency's strength.

What does this mean for Gold traders?

Trade Gold in USD. Trading it in AUD will not yield much, given the stronger AUD expected to match rises in Gold.

Any increase in the price of Gold will not help Aussie producers of the shiny metal. These profits that we should be taking are being stolen from us by the strength of our own currency relative to the majors mentioned above.

Something to watch.

Right now, the EURAUD "should" drop like a rock - there are 800+ pips to old support and during the past few corrections, the pair has made around 1300 to 1500 pips per move down. That is about 100% further past previous support ... so be prepared for a bonanza if shorting this pair.

Given the climate for this seems to have improved, I don't expect this time to be any different, unless the RBA decides to raise rates in October, and that seems as unlikely as Romney becoming the next President of the USA!

Indeed, the pressure seems to be for both to go down!

Why is this important for Gold? Because the fires that feed the rally in gold are fuelled by such stuff.

Forecast for Gold: Current price is a buying opportunity before the next leg up.

(Message edited by Ingot54 on September 24, 2012)


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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goldbug
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Good article Archer.

As with a decade ago ... Nothing has changed.
In fact, Gold's fundamentals are better now than then.

Regards
The Bug


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archer
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Tuesday, September 25, 2012 - 10:51 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Cant argue with that GB
Ingot that stairstep pattern is VERY bullish
1795 is resistance for obvious reasons and that level was rejected the other night
every time gold has broken above the 200 dma its come back to touch it before moving higher -will it do so again this time???
g
If we zoom right in -but was that an acceptable retest??
g2


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ingot54
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Was going to go long Gold on the pullback yesterday, but held off. Then price fell over the cliff.

There was no reason ... it just did!

Today I get my Daily Reckoning after lunch, and there is this story about half-way down the page. It is worth reading the whole article, starting at about this point:



Which brings us to the gold market...this is actually quite funny.
Here are a couple of headlines from overnight. From Bloomberg:

Gold Tumbles Most in Three Weeks on Fiscal-Cliff Concerns

'Gold futures fell the most in three weeks as pessimism on a
U.S. budget resolution eroded demand for commodities.'

Then, The Age tells us:

Stocks gain on fiscal cliff hopes

'US stocks rose, erasing early losses, and commodities pared
declines as lawmakers said they are optimistic a budget agreement
can be reached to avoid automatic spending cuts and tax increases'


In short - no one has the 750,000ozs of gold that was sold at the open ... but if you are JP Morgan Chase, you can do whatever you like on paper!

And to anyone who thinks they can trade this market ...well ... good luck with that.

My advice - hold only the PM itself. Do not attempt to trade it - buy the dips ... and be happy with your investment.

The day is coming when those who had the guts to hold and buy more in these artificial down-turns, will be the last ones standing!

It's the Golden Rule!


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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archer
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Sunday, December 02, 2012 - 03:21 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Ingot
The smackdowns in gold during NY open are becoming comical
in their desperation
Last week-CME Declares Force Majeure Due To “Operational Limitations” On NYC Gold Depository
It seems the gold got wet from superstorm Sandy and the gold will take a loooong time to dry-haha
Just go long on a break of 1800
Should be good for about a thousand bucks i reckon


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gdd3
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Hi Archer and Ingot...

It really was not a good night/day for the POG yesterday/last night... During Asian time OK however there were early warning signs of weakness to come BUT I didn't expect this(see 10min Chart).

OUCH! POG had a price swing on the day of over $40. So many -ves as a result ...

1/... Again rejection of our 10EMA(on a close basis) even though we got to a high of $1703+ during the day(Remember, the 10EMA had joined the 35EMA and
55EMA on their downward paths and -ve crossovers a week ago).

2/... Our only saving grace EMA, the 200EMA, has been broken as well.

3/... the initial break today of our $1696 chart suppt was OK at 1st signalling a likelihood for a test of the high 80's again(lower boundary of of S/T DR)but then the
feeble attempt to back-test the $1696 was really a strong warning the high 80's was very likely to go as well....but who would have guessed by so much and in such
a short time(a matter of hours).

4/... whilst today's action has meant many OSCILLATORS have returned to oversold levels I can't find any that are showing real positive divergence. Sure, some
like the MACD could be seen as having slight divergence(just) but as it is a "lagger" you would expect its current levels are going to go lower indicating ant S/T
price rallies are going to be short-lived.

One Positive is that we may have good suppt @ $1668 ... the POC on the Daily ... and depending on how the market reacts to this zone over the coming day's will determine
whether we are to again test the base on our Daily chart Dominating range at $1532. You would think recent rejection(Oct 4th) just shy of of the top of that range(~1800)
would favour the POC not holding this thrust down and therefore further weakness is the higher probability as the market tries to find "balance" again.


Cheers

Dolphin






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ingot54
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Thursday, December 20, 2012 - 09:39 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Dolphin

There are some strange things going on in New York today ... but then there always has been. There is nothing rational about markets today ... nor has there ever been.

Gold is off my trading list forever - I will buy the PM ... but not for trading.

And by the looks of things, I am not the only one who is into the look, but do not touch thingy!


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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archer
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Sunday, December 23, 2012 - 05:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for the charts Dolphin
There is still the 61.8 to contend with and it should offer good support for a few reasons
Its also the top of the triangle pattern and if this is an ABC move down A will = C right at the 61.8 too
Also the major consolidations during this bull have lasted
15-16 months and one lasted 18 months
We are at 16 months now
but if this falls and heads to the bottom of the range it will be the 4th visit there and they usually fail
gold


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ingot54
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Sunday, December 23, 2012 - 07:20 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks like more correction in store, Archer and Dolphin.

I use a personal rule that the higher TF rules (until it doesn't) and so I look to the Weekly here for guidance.

The recent (daily) swing low used as a starting point tells me the 161.8 and the 100 ema should coincide just under $1600. The level should not be used as a turning point, but as a zone of indecision, from which it will consult the entrails before moving higher/lower.

As long as I am able to consult the same set of entrails as Wall Street does, I should be safe.

Gold Weekly


By the way - to avoid confusion, I have drawn the fibs on the Daily chart, and then flipped to the Weekly, using the same fib levels as the daily.

I did that because my Custom MACD is still getting into free-fall mode. It could be a short-lived retracement - effectively shaking people like me out of the market, before the expected event.

EDIT - on the Monthly, there is a strong support line at $1564 ... what then?




Gold Rally 2013

(Message edited by Ingot54 on December 23, 2012)


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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gdd3
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Monday, December 24, 2012 - 11:34 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Archer and Ingot...

Can concur with your thoughts/observations, Archer and was discussing most of those over the weekend with some other colleagues(see 'blurred' 1st I.C. chart below) and will add I noted that the 61.8% of Time comes in on Jan.1st...if this chart/market was "perfect"(which it isn't as Ingot has correctly stated previously). Of interest is how our initial range our from the May Low(shown in orange) has helped establish minor swing points both from the 'diagonal' extensions(yellow lines) and from 'Fibo' price extensions. In addition, I noted the "tweezer" candle pattern just formed just above the Fibo. suppt levels in this latest run down; we've had two previous patterns since our May swing low that have proved important swing points. All this highlights at least the S/T importance of the $1630/40 zone as suppt.




Now, Ingot, I'm with you..."it looks like more correction in store(S/T)"...thats what my crude EWC is telling me shown on the "close-up" chart below. I also concur that the both the Wkly and Daily MACD's are looking ugly9I hinted this in my previous post). You would think also supporting the thought of lower prices from here.




In addition, our 'live' SPOT chart is telling me the same thing...this 30min intraday chart clearly tells me that $1659.50 is still a S/T strong "supply" level that is capping our upside atm(even as I write, yet another rejection...found more supply...has occurred at this level).




Arh, if I was a betting man(and trading POG is very much a gambler's game atm) I'd bet that we will see a low of $1618.00 between the 1st and 3rd Jan(being 61.8% in time and 89cd+/-1 day from our last swing high just to keep "That Old Italian Guy" happy....Dolphin's never been a good gambler.


Cheers guys and have a wonderful Christmas and New year.

Dolphin}

(Message edited by gdd3 on December 24, 2012)


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ingot54
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Monday, December 24, 2012 - 12:39 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I like your charts, Dolphin, even though it takes me awhile to get used to the light!

One of my fav charts is the line chart based on closing price, and I have used it to establish S&R levels on the zoomed-out chart of the daily.

A zone between $1540 and $1565 is produced.





It also produces the wedge which might or might not produce the springboard for the doomsday rally! I like to keep things simple - then, when I am wrong, I don't feel I have spent money on a crashed Mercedes, when a crashed Morris 1000 looks the same

The second chart is also the Daily, but I am showing the StochasticRSI, which usually gives a fairly unambiguous indication if a change in trend.





In this case, I would need to see prices rally to $1690 to $1710, before plunging to wherever ...

In that case the StochRSI would be at the top, and begin to turn down, signalling a powerful move.

It's like baking ... if you add eggs ... you get cake.
If not ... then you have scones!

It's good to follow this atm - not only do we have the TA, but we have an opportunity to see how the TA reflects some of the (S)FA going on in the USA atm, with their "Fiscal Cliff" distraction.

The GeoPoliticals also confuse the issue, meaning we might end up with scones ... or indeed cake!

It all depends on dem eggs!


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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gdd3
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Thursday, December 27, 2012 - 01:14 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ingot...

I like your charts also and your "hot" zones...of course I have to say that because both fall within the zones I have identified in my above postings(very S/T "supply" candle...1667.50 - 1655 plus the 1668 POC on the Daily). In the S/T, structurally, you could expect just another minor leg down, again to within your 2nd 'springboard' zone and the lower base of the Daily Dominant Range...I'll say $1565-$1532 to take in your range as well. With the oscillators in their current positions and that Tweezer bottom I have pointed out don't be surprised that the swing low we are looking for may be somewhat higher. Of course there is also the BB factor to consider as well...probably the hardest thing to predict.

My S/T A.P. is still showing the trading swings in the POG are still being 'guide' by the red A.P. boundaries and again your levels to 'confirm' a swing low is in place and to get you interested are about right. If the tweezer Bottom is to hold the downside for the present then keep your eye on the 'new' blue A.P. for suppt/resistance.






Cheers and all the best for a "fruitful" 2013...

Dolphin


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archer
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Tagged the 618 right on 90 days down from the high
I be going long gold stocks next open
ye


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gdd3
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Hi Archer...

I agree! To add weight to your observation are the additional T&P for POG. NOT quite the perfect 61.8% T&P for this low but still perfect T&P(63.3%). In the last few weeks I was focusing on looking for a low @/near the 61.8% T&P(i.e.... 2 day's ago) but when we almost reached the 61.8% price level on the 21st of Dec.(nice 55% of time) I thought it was possible that was it. However, I was swayed but the wave structure that we still had one more leg down to go(to ~ the $1532 level). Well, not too far off the mark also. Interestingly, the intermediate swing high level of just two day's ago(our 61.8% of Time day) came just a smidgeon higher that 61.8% up from the May Low.

Yep, so I agree ... go long Gold stocks ...but the real puzzle is which ones! Interested in yours, or others, views on which ones!




Cheers
Dolphin}}

P.S. Here's the update of the Hrly A.P. Chart I posted above...only now I have adjusted the "bullish" blue A.P. to come from last night's low.

}


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ingot54
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Soooo ... two against one eh?

I don't have the TA firepower of you guys ... (clearly) but my projections tell a
short story.

I went short last night in a demo trade.
I don't trade Gold live any more ... maybe this is why I set a TP at $1622.30, which was $20 under the entry, but more importantly, it was consistent with the support zone going back to 18th June ... 3rd July ... 27th July and 10th August.

Just missed out, but I am leaving it open because I feel there is a lot more downside ahead, and I am sticking with my Daily/Weekly picture of the chart. I am expecting in the short term a retest of the $1590 support.

In my last post I mentioned: "I would need to see prices rally to $1690 to $1710, before plunging to wherever ..." and price did indeed touch the $1690 last night before plunging to $1625.69 (on my data).

I use candlesticks, but rarely use them for fibs or S&R levels. Instead I use the line charts wherever possible to check what the picture is there.

Hope you give that a go too occasionally - I have had some surprising yields in currency pairs by disregarding outlier levels, and going on closing levels.

The reason I do it is because most of the extreme points are reached, imv, not because of traders finding value at those extremes, but simply because of impulse trading driving price towards those stops. Impulse waves do set aberrant points, which I simply can not trust when doing the TA.

Remember, we are trading on the coat-tails of the BB's, and when they pull out, traders take a little longer to wake up to the loss of momentum. I have access to COT data ($1/week - I can give you the link if wanted).

It is clear that the shorts are all closing their positions atm ... Commercials, Speculators and Small Traders all reversed their holdings this week - as at today 5th January ... the weekly close. So gold will indeed rally ... not sure how long it will be before I capitulate too.

But it is the weekend, and strange things happen ... so I decided to hold. Over the cooling-off period enforced by the intervention of a weekend, traders begin to see things differently, and on Monday's open, we may get another surprise.

It is difficult to see from my COT chart, but the decrease in the number of shorts has slowed, indicating a reversal to the short side may yet resume, despite the pressure on gold from the long side.

Perhaps Jamie Dimon has more like Ina Drew up his sleeve to take the $6 billion falls when they come. JP Morgan Chase has the largest short position on Gold on record, I believe, and if they are wrong (ie the market overcomes them) then the dreamed-of city of gold will be in sight for us, as well as for Jamie, but from different perspectives.

Gold COT

Ingot's Folly


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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ingot54
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This morning there are predictions for more deflation, as the FOMC alluded to an end to the $85 billion
monthly bond purchases yada yada ... for "sometime in 2013."

This created great uncertainty amongst traders of both PM's and equities.

Just when we were expecting outrageous inflation, along comes deflation to spoil the party.

If this happens, all commodities can be expected to contract ... including the PM's.

All I know is that investment died in 2007, and gambling became the modus operandi to this day.

Does anyone buy-and-hold anymore?

Can the charts tell us anything anymore?

Today, as in past years, I am questioning whether it is really worth it to persist in trading activities.
The returns are just not worth the investment in my time. Had I known in 2004 what i know today,
I would have made my money before 2007, and retired when I saw the DJIAA rolling over!

Weekly Gold


S&P500


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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ehmu
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Hi Guys:

Gold from a different angle. I normally like to stick strictly to TA, but Gold is a creature with its own nature.

I use GLD etf which I have found tracks the international gold price the best. I am considering where Gold prices might go in the MID term. Short term is a different story.

I experimented on the chart durations to find the least false signals using the "idiot" and arrived at a 3d chart. For anyone that doesn't know, the "idiot" uses the ma crossovers as buy and sell signals. (in conjunction of course with specific oscillators)

I plotted GDX (which is the gold producers) as an overlay on my attached chart because I believe that the producers are leading gold down, and occasionally up. Note on the chart that using this as an indicator that GDX has been dropping faster that GLD; suggesting to me that it has further to go in the downward direction.

The likelihood that support will occur in between the quadrant lines, and not at or near a quadrant line is less likely. If this is the case, then gold will bounce around 1550.

In the bottom pane if you focus on the 13CCI (croaking canary indicator), I notice that it hasn't sunk to the same level as the previous two reversals. This also suggests that we may not have reversed quite yet.

Another aspect noteworthy on the bottom pane is that the period of the excursions is expanding. And if I'm correct about more downage in the cards, then there is also more time available; suggesting the action may not be very quick.

On the fundamental side, Bernanke is trying to silence the poor masses by promoting deflation. This makes gold cheaper and with inflation pinned to the floor mats by zero interest, it may take a little time to turn the barge around.

Now, lastly, looking at the long rectangular (slim gym [25%-75% quadrant lines]) consolidation, they say breakouts are quite explosive. Price above 1750 constitutes a breakout to the up side, and price below 1550 constitutes a breakout to the down side. This makes risk to the upside currently greater since there is 150 points to an up side breakout and 50 points to a downside breakout.

This dialogue has been focussed on a analysis of gold. Trading is a whole different story with a new set of considerations. Myself, I like to trade gold producing companies; while others like to choose an etf that suits their personality or priorities. (ie the etf GOLD tracks gold but has a higher beta because of the hedging strategies of the fund managers) (and others like the options for the triple juiced etf's)





For those of you that are new to gold, a fair warning.

I'm attaching an hourly chart for GLD, and I want you to focus on the gaps in the trading prices. These gaps are generally caused by huge manipulations of physical gold, gold futures, and currency swaps. A person could easily lose their trading account very quickly if they didn't know what they are doing.

A handy oscillator for retaining your sense of the horizon (which way is up) is the Time Segmented Volume oscillator offered by freecharts.com, see the bottom pane. This is their proprietory money flow indicator (integrating price and volume) where accumulation is above the zero line and distribution is below the zero line. Seems to be a fair amount of distribution going on recently on the 60min chart.




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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ehmu
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Sunday, January 06, 2013 - 12:29 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



COT statement posted last week.




_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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archer
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Well its the setup ive been waiting for Ingot so i gotta give it a go
I dont think the fed knows whats going on
This time last year they where saying NO MORE QE to come
Now they have avoided their cliff and raised taxes but they will be a further 5 trillion down the hole in 10 years time according to the CBO
Personally i think our finance system is broken and they cannot stop QE ever

Thanks for the charts Dolphin
PNA is probably one of the strongest golds atm
RSG looks quite strong relative to gold
NST is a good mover with a rising POG
KRM is completing a nice rounding base atm
MOY chart looks positive too
and of the developers
AMX is showing some promise just breaking back above double bottom resistance line
GCY chart looking good also
Still have lots of charts to go thru but time poor currently
Will try and post more if i get time later tonight


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hailoh
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I briefly caught a chart produced by Agorafinancial.com attributed to data from Bloomberg showing movements in gold price: "Year over Year Rolling Return % Change in Standard Deviation Terms."

I have been trying to find it again - the chart showed gold currently bouncing on a bottom that previously had reliably preceded a breakout north.

Has anyone else seen it, or can you reproduce it?


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ehmu
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ehmu wrote on Sunday, January 06, 2013 - 12:29 pm:

COT statement posted last week ending dec28.




This is the assessment update from my previous post for the week ending Jan4:

GOLD: The current fund trend is
bearish but we saw them
buying this week. With both our
price trend-cycle and fund
indicator in agreement, the
trend is down. Commercial
buying should appear at
1526.7, the key support level
blocking a new bear leg.


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities




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hailoh
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I note that Colin in his latest trading diary shows evidence for a continuing bearish outlook for gold.

I have posted a potential H&S chart of the US dollar in which I referred to evidence for a bullish outlook for gold. Far be it for me to query Colin's expertise so I'll ask him to comment on the attached chart.

GLD and Twiggs Momentum

I have interpreted the diminishing negative momentum as evidence for an imminent rise in GLD, a rise which would correlate comfortably with the bearish trend I expect in the US dollar.

Are we simply looking at different time spans?


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ingot54
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My bias to the short side stands, Hailoh.

Like most instruments, unless there is momentum, the public lose interest, and will sell. Only the true believers remain.

With the FA claptrap about how Europe is solving their problems ... and the USA now having no fiscal cliff (too bad about the under-reported debt ceiling) the markets are hypnotised into going sideways.

Even the humble AUD is going nowhere!

And of course we have good old Jamie Dimon over at JP Morgan Chase, who only sells gold short ... and gets bailed out if his trade tanks!

These are the factors I consider - notwithstanding the TA on the charts I have included - which is as brief as I can constrain myself to be!

I was too lazy to draw in the trend lines ... but here are a few ... you can add them yourself ////\\ /// __ __ __

CheersGold Weekly

Gold Daily

Weekly Gold


Keep Smiling - Don't look back

Hell, there are no rules here - we're trying to accomplish something ~ Thomas A. Edison

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have ~ Margaret Mead


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goldbug
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Well Hellooooo ....




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ehmu
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goldbug wrote on Thursday, September 19, 2013 - 11:20 am:

Well Hellooooo ....




Heh heh ehm......

nothing a little 15 minute $100B foreplay won't fix.


_____ Hal



.......Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities


___________________

Trade or die, may as well have a little fun in the process

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colin_twiggs
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Early Christmas, courtesy of the Fed.


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goldbug
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Newcrest Setting up for a move




Regards
The BUG is BACK


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tryhay
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Hmmmmmm some time since anyone posted on this thread!

Gold has been taken to the wood shed but just may have formed a bottom around $1077 - (don't know for how long but it has room to go higher and the 60 minute pattern suggests it will).

Daily chart:

w

60 min Chart:

60

will look to open position tonight


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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No trigger to trade yet!

Gold looks to be setting up a nice counter trend pop - may just need one more dip....

Gold 2 Hr Chart:

g 2}


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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I have been distracted this week but note this trade played out as expected (may just go a bit higher but more likely not)..

g2


Happy trading DYOR


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hailoh
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Does anyone know of an online trader in Australia that will provide coverage of the US index XAU?


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brianmccarthy
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Hi to all,

New member here.

Tryhay, I was interested in your trade. I closed a similar trade to yours, though my entry points and exit points were slightly different.

I must say your charting tools and analysis are very impressive. Well done.

Where do you see GLD right now?


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somers12shawca
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GLD will continue to rise as long as the American Dollar is down. As the Dollar rises... GLD will fall.


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peterloh
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Tryhay, you called the latest gold movement well. Where do you see gold going from here on? I am bullish on gold for the next few months at least, that is the short term. Am I misplaced? Gold has recently crossed the 200days MA.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Nice to see some interest in gold recently. I have been distracted but hope to spend some time on this site tomorrow.

somers12shawca is right: the dollar looks short term weak and so gold can be expected to be short term strong. Amazingly since beginning of year USD has been sliding sideways but Gold has still been taken to the wood shed (1258 to 1035)....

Given that the markets are like playing golf (spoils a good walk IMO), then even though the longer term trend/s might be as shown the shorter term market action is likely to milk retail investors.....

US Dollar Daily: Has recently been consolidating by sliding sideways (mainly), and may well have another push higher (say off some Moving Average/Fib support).

ud

Gold Daily: Has broken down lately (since 2012 really) and must be ready for a reversal - the 200 MA may just slow its rise in price in the shorter term.

gd

Not holding ATM


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Hi brianmccarthy,

Thanks for your interest on this topic.


Twitter chart: I saw on twitter this chart: showing USD 'breaking' and the Commodities Index 'bottoming'.

td

Gold daily: More importantly the current gold chart shows a retrace from 200 DMA and coiling of the gold SPX ratio. Gold is still in a bear market - but may well be recovering....

gd

If you wish to trade gold profitably you probably need to look at shorter term charts given the whipsawing nature of the beast!
or have big pockets to allow for the expected draw-downs!!


Happy trading DYOR


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brianmccarthy
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Fascinating stuff, tryhay.

The relationship with the 200MA remains crucial, I agree.

I'm still on a wait-and-see on Gold, though I think we'll have clarity in the charts very soon.

Best wishes.


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tryhay
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Well gold is going lower and USD is heading higher (particularly if interest rates go up in USA or they have QE4)....

USD Daily: Price action looks ready to pop higher

ud

Gold Daily: An unpleasant chart.....

gd

No open positions ATM

(Message edited by tryhay on November 05, 2015)


Happy trading DYOR


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hailoh
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While there are many erudite names given to the money printing cycle we are experiencing, in my book it simply amounts to bank policy providing virtually unlimited debt with a non- explicit repayment responsibility. No wonder the SPX is showing such a startling response.

S&P daily

The gold and silver,gold vectors, gold bugs and similarly related indices are all showing quite the opposite patterns.

gold and silver daily

gold vectors daily

Should there be a reversion away from unparalleled debt financing of assets to the point where equity is so eroded that debt repayment becomes a real issue, then we can anticipate a fall in S&P and a return to interest in precious metals.

For whatever reasons I have chosen, I am holding cash in anticipation of opportunities in gold related indices early in 2016.


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hailoh
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Then again, Tryhay, if you look at the US dollar chart and compare years with the charts I posted earlier, it may take a year or more before the dollar finishes it's march north. In that case precious metals could stay unwanted, until the dollar is so overvalued compared with other currencies that US trade contracts and the big bull run finishes.

US dollar

All we need now is a burst of other charts being posted to really muddy the waters, or a war!


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tryhay
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Monday, November 09, 2015 - 09:35 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi hailoh,

While there are many erudite names given to the money printing cycle we are experiencing, in my book it simply amounts to bank policy providing virtually unlimited debt with a non- explicit repayment responsibility. No wonder the SPX is showing such a startling response.

Yes there are no absolutes in trading the market: too many environmental/external factors influence it.

Last week's USD candle suggests it will continue marching higher (whether because of actual interest rate rise or possible QE / continuing) must be a wave 5 or 3? - Elliot wave is not a strong point..

The daily and weekly gold chart/s still look poor - looking like many other commodities ATM. They must get a bid one day - maybe to form H&S bottom yet?

daily and weekly USD chart/s:

ud

uw

daily and weekly gold chart/s below

gd

gw


No open positions ATM - but USD is on the cards tonight


Happy trading DYOR


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archer
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Monday, November 23, 2015 - 03:21 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This thread followed the gold bull market all the way thru its 13 years and since that time gold has been in a big bear
TIME is very close to running out for this bear though so stay tuned and get your shopping lists ready ;)


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hailoh
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Archer the GDX chart I posted a few weeks ago is still in play - the HUI gold bugs is very similar.

I'm looking for the 50 week MA moving to cross above the 250 before I get too excited, and first interest could be some of the better producers that I expect will be beaten down again before they recover.

Patience, patience.


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tryhay
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Monday, November 23, 2015 - 08:17 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Archer,

I wondered where you were, not to mention rederob & Goldbug to name only a couple....

Maybe this is the 5th wave for USD - may not have far to run, but hard to imagine that (whether because of impending interest rate rise/s or possible QE continuing around the globe); and Gold is trying to find support around here (good luck IMO - as hailoh says until the MAs sort themselves out on GLD & GDX)

Daily USD Chart:

ud

Daily Gold chart:


gd


Happy trading DYOR


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goldbug
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I'm still here tryhay .... patience will pay off.







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goldbug
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As I said ...



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