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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Commodities - base metals/oil

Chart Forum » Commodities & Futures » Commodities - base metals/oil

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COMMODITIES SECTORvisions13 27-Feb-17  01:58 pm
OIL WARS - Coming to a Theatre near you.stoian17 16-Jun-08  03:14 am
Commodity warrantssumamura16-Jul-07  01:41 am
Archive through January 22, 2007kate25 22-Jan-07  08:32 am
Archive through December 21, 2006captain_chaza25 21-Dec-06  03:10 pm
Archive through December 07, 2006kate25 07-Dec-06  02:27 pm
Archive through November 18, 2006rederob25 18-Nov-06  10:23 am
Archive through July 27, 2006dydavo25 27-Jul-06  09:16 pm
Archive through June 05, 2006thommo7825 05-Jun-06  05:09 pm
Archive through May 23, 2006smallworld25 23-May-06  07:22 pm
Archive through May 19, 2006captain_chaza29 19-May-06  04:44 pm
Archive through November 09, 2005thommo7828 09-Nov-05  05:11 pm
Archive through October 06, 2005rederob25 06-Oct-05  12:02 pm
Archive through September 17, 2005rederob25 17-Sep-05  06:14 pm
Archive through August 11, 2005rederob25 11-Aug-05  09:19 pm
Archive through July 05, 2005rederob25 05-Jul-05  09:20 pm
Archive through May 02, 2005archer67 02-May-05  09:50 am
Archive through April 02, 2005perler5925 02-Apr-05  11:35 am
Archive through March 14, 2005rederob25 14-Mar-05  03:00 pm
Archive through March 08, 2005hilarius25 08-Mar-05  03:20 pm
Archive through February 02, 2005rederob25 03-Feb-05  12:48 am
Archive through January 04, 2005rederob25 04-Jan-05  06:45 pm
Archive through November 16, 2004rederob25 16-Nov-04  04:04 pm
Archive through October 16, 2004hilarius25 16-Oct-04  10:07 am
Archive through October 03, 2004vermante25 03-Oct-04  10:26 am
Archive through August 06, 2004rederob25 06-Aug-04  09:48 pm
Archive through June 25, 2004eblode25 25-Jun-04  01:29 pm
Archive through June 10, 2004hilarius25 10-Jun-04  11:27 am
         

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captain_chaza
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Monday, January 22, 2007 - 03:37 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Sea-Cadet Jimbo

I based my opinion on Fridays NY close on the Base metals Oil and even the Gold Charts

As I am now set I hope they will all improve again tonight and the overnight Gaps tomorrow/s will be ALL MINE!

Salute and Gods' Speed
Capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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kate
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Monday, January 22, 2007 - 04:37 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Captain C
I hope your first day of sailing was as profitable as you hoped, mine went way beyond expectations so I expect a quieter day tomorrow.
Now that you are "back to work" will you have time for the Scandia week?

Kate







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captain_chaza
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Monday, January 22, 2007 - 05:16 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Katie

Scandia Week??
Pardon my ignorance

Capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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kate
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Captain C,
Sorry can't spell, its Skandia. Just assumed you would know all about it.

http://www.geelongweek.com.au/


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captain_chaza
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Tuesday, January 23, 2007 - 07:58 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy SCO Katie

Gold seems to be moving in a favourable direction
ATM
and "About Bloody time" I say

I was starting to think I had made a mistake yesterday!!

Still a long way to go on the REAL END of DAY on the Global Exchange (ie:NY close) tonight but I am feeling some-what confident

As always my ankles are crossed and thumbs are Holding on tightly

I might get the Gaps I deserve tomorrow if things work out??

Salute and Gods' Speed
Capn

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on January 23, 2007)


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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captain_chaza
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Ahoy Katie

What are you doing re the Ox
Time is running out !

The Copper chart looks even better than when Officer Red Rob posted the other day

Go figure why it has under-performed in my Magnificent 7?
So far!

Salute and Gods'speed
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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kate
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Captain C,
I don't know whether people are still nervous about getting into copper or there is something we don't know about. The Australian was mentioning other copper companies which are likely to perform well this year -HAV,ALB,EXS,MBN. I have only just read this so can't comment, haven't even looked at the charts.
Maybe Rederob might know something you and I don't?

Regards
Kate


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captain_chaza
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007 - 04:07 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy again SCO Katie

I liked the look of Officer Red Robs Copper Chart and things have only improved since then albeit small but I do feel it has been "Significant"

Maybe those dumb landlubbers just can't read charts? Eh?
or the Ox has sold off its Copper assets?

Salute and Gods' speed
Capn
So far this week I am happy with my Magnificent 7 Commodity Supa-Mainsails OSH ZFX RIO BHP LHG but NCM and OXR have been a little disappointing

Anyway, So far, So good!


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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captain_chaza
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007 - 08:08 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looks to me that George Walker Bush does not bluff in times of WAR
That is a Fact!

I think he will contract the Israeli Airforce to do all the necessary damage on Iran /Iranian Uranium Installations
when convenient

In the realm of International Affairs
Somebody always has to play Good Cop/Bad Cop

Such as it is in times of War and Peace in the Middle East

Salute and Gods' Speed George Walker Bush!
Capn
PS As a retired Mossad agent I know the World is in Good Hands!
PPS Let's Nuec the Bastards!!!!


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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captain_chaza
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007 - 10:28 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It also looks to me

The Friar is a Gentleman and an astute Scholar but not yet an Officer
He knows not what we want
But dreams of Good fortune !

I don't think we can Lose with his God on our side!!!

Salute and God'Speed
Capn
NB : I have been wrong before!


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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Friday, January 26, 2007 - 07:43 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Copper
LME stocks hit 2 year highs.
Shanghai stocks hit new lows, dropping 6,500 tonnes over the week to now sit under 25,000 tonnes.
US Comex stock levels have been ambivalent, with each way trade suggesting a degree of market balance.
The "news" is that there is a geographical "shift" from US to Europe in terms of inventory accumulation.
LME warehouses in Asia are drawing down regularly, suggesting that China is not only taking from Shanghai in good quantity, but also from LME.
Clearly supply has outpaced demand for over a year now.
US housing slowdown has had an impact, as has Chinese destocking.
But will the pace of global warehouse accumulation be decisive enough to see funds quit out of their copper positions in 2007? Or is there enough doubt there for the longs to keep the faith?
Right now inflows are robust to LME European locations, so I suspect any slowdown will be taken as a sign that copper remains "acceptable", but not desirable.


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archer
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Tuesday, February 06, 2007 - 12:53 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



snip
-------
"Let’s go on to metals. I have been contending for over a year and a half now that hedge funds have become buyers of physical metal. These holdings have not been made public; they have constituted” hidden stocks”. I believe such purchases have persisted right through 2006."


http://www.kitco.com/ind/veneroso/feb052007.html


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baigferoze
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Could anyone please guide me to which are the good trading systems for the US commodities markets?


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igor
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I enjoy reading the posts here that I subscribe to, and would rather not write, but I would like to know the thoughts of others here, about the recent moves on copper, it's been reaching new highs, and it seems that the Chinese have made a New Years resolution to buy copper, I'm interested if anyone has short term views on copper, I trade in ETO's only an apprentice at it, and I brought some calls on OXR on Thursday, and am expecting OXR to break through it's current down trend on Monday, sorry don't know how to put the chart up here. But $3.00 is around the mark.
I'm not sure if Monday is a good day to get out or if there is more up and up. In my own view I really don't see Gold going down, not with the talk that is going on about Iran now, if Oil goes up so will Gold, but it is all hearsay.
Please any thoughts would be helpful.


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kate
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I wonder how this will affect the commodity market tomorrow.

"China stocks slump most in ten years"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ai8eM8T_.Q9A&refer=home


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kate
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BHP and RIO both down approx 4% at the start of trade in London, they may well recover some of that loss but it doesn't look great.


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tryhay
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Friday, March 23, 2007 - 08:29 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



FWIW Some recent fundamental and technical analysis on ZINC from a local broker (Today's The Australasian Daily). I understand most ppl have long ago written off the hard commodities (particularly base metals) but it seems some brokers haven't and I'm guessing if one bothers to trade particular ones there is still money to be made.

Summary forecasts for the Australian Zinc Sector

While we expect zinc prices to average US$1.85/lb. (cUS$4,050/t), we are increasingly wary of supply response globally and see prices declining to US$1.50/lb in 2008 and US$1.00/lb in 2009.

* Supply response balancing the zinc market
We expect that about 15 new zinc projects will come on line in 2007, contributing to the nearly 1.2mt of new mine production. If experiences in other markets are considered, there will likely be delays, nevertheless, supply is responding and will help to balance the zinc market this year. .... Several aspects are then considered before discussing couple of likely candidates.

* China - positive or negative?
Chinese output of zinc metal grew significantly at the end of 2006, and was responsible for some of the downward pressure on pricing experienced at this time. We believe in fact that China will be a net supportive influence on the zinc market in 2007. Continued build in galvanised steel capacity should ease export pressure.

* Enthusiasm tempered by supply growth
While we expect zinc prices to average US$1.85/lb. (cUS$4,050/t), we are increasingly wary of supply response globally. Our forecasts call for a gradual decline in pricing into 2008 and 2009. We no longer view zinc as a preferred commodity.

* Equity view a matter of valuation
We consider the free cash generation for zinc producers to be highly attractive, and believe that investors continue to underestimate the magnitude and duration of future cash returns. We highlight zinc related Buy 2 rated equities Zinifex and Perilya.

Zinifex – Buy 2: Cash generation, asset sales
While earnings downgrades short term may weigh on the stock if zinc prices hold at current levels, we believe the cash generation and eventual sale of the smelting business could release significant value to ZFX shareholders. Our price target of $18.30 is equivalent to 7x FY 08e earnings.

Relevant ZFX details:
Ex-Dividend Date: 30-Mar-2007
Dividend Payable Date: 20-Apr-2007
Dividend Amount: 0.70
Dividend Franked Percentage: 100.00%


Chart: Near the bottom of the SD channel, nearing some support but indicators not very attractive. HC pointed out Ex Div some time soon ~ one could reasonable expect a responce at that time ..... I guess interest will pick up next week

zfx

Perilya – Buy 2: Earnings momentum, attractive valuation
We remain positive on the outlook for Perilya as incremental production drives earnings increases next year. Near term we see further news-flow on the North Mine Deeps pre-feasibility study and Mt Oxide drill results as positive catalysts. Our upside case valuation which assumes production from North Mine Deeps and additional production from the Southern operations and Potosi is $4.10, this incorporates a long term zinc price forecast of US$0.60/lb, the stock is now trading below this valuation. Perilya is trading on 4.3x our FY08E EPS which assumes an average zinc price US$1.63

Chart: Presently unattractive chart but price action is near substantial support. Prognosis bleak ATM IMO

pem


60 D_ZINC chart/s:
Price consolidating? ........................Stocks apparently increasing?
zinc-60d..............warehouse

Small residual holding in each (purchase price ~ < $10,000 @ $11.1800 & $4.4800 ) but not topping up just yet


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kate
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Saturday, March 24, 2007 - 07:33 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tryhay, the only thing I'm looking at is copper but after hearing this morning's news (British troops being captured by the Iranians) I'm buying oil and probably gold first thing Monday

Kate


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rederob
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Monday, May 28, 2007 - 10:33 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A bit of a break between posts here!
Copper doing better than nickel: There's a turnaround!
And lead is becoming flavour of the month - whaaaaaaaaat???
It might sound silly, but these weird trends are what keeps the commodity bull ticking over nicely, thank you.

Some perspective now.
If we go back 5 or 6 years to when commodities were flat, we would also have had global demand at subdued levels.
Note that Kitco's inventory charts only go back 5 years for ease of reference (and yes there are other longer term chart to fall back on). But the point I want to make is that since then global demand is conservatively 25% greater irrespective of the present bull market. Which means that when we look at Kitco inventory charts, we must be mindful that what was adequate way back then is no longer adequate - we need a lot more!
In fact, as the pace of industrialisation increases in BRIC nations, consumption of base metals increases disproportionately until such times as the "have nots" turned "wannabes" become "have tos", like us.
It is now well established that America's pre-eminence as a global price-trend setter is subservient to China's role.
While in the background India is playing catch up at an increasing pace.
Curiously, wherever we look, things are pretty good on the whole - even the US is doing incredibly well with its metal consumption given the automotive and housing industry slumps that have set-in.
So here we are a year after base metals were trounced by the funds, and we see metals across the board even tighter than they were then.
This might not be the recipe for further amazing price increases, but let's not forget what nickel has shown us to be possible.
I looked at my portfolio yesterday and discovered I was 60% materials and 15% energy: Clearly a poorly balanced position to be in. So I am determined to add more oil and uranium on equity weakness.


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kate
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Saturday, June 02, 2007 - 11:32 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A quick update on oil.
BP have delayed restarting their refinery in Chicago and another in Indiana is running on reduced capacity. Its sounding more and more like a sloppy operation. Remember Prudhoe Bay +/- 6 months ago? Supply is definitely very finely balanced.
Nigeria is only supplying a third of what they can produce but more may come on line if the talks between the community elders and protesters succeed.
Both may cause short term spikes or dips but nothing more.
More of a concern in the longer term is Russia's attitude to international oil/gas companies.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/01/news/international/russia_bp/index.htm?postversi on=2007060112


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kate
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Nickel

Short term pain for long term gain??

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=az0MnAkgbroU&refer=commoditi es


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tryhay
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Tuesday, June 19, 2007 - 08:16 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Kate,

I tend to agree with your nickel assessment. However some other base metals look like they are set for a rise according to Man Metals market report this week:
'"This morning, we are picking off where we left off on Friday, with lead once again soaring into record territory, while copper also is firm, in light of several strike situations possibly taking root this week. Contract talks with subcontract workers at Chile's Codelco are probably the most important development to watch in this regard. Although no strike date has been set, a spokesman for the 30,000 subcontract workers at Codelco said June 21st has been suggested. "You are going to know when the strike starts, because it's going to be massive," a spokesman told Reuters"'. Those peskie unions look like wanting fairer work~choices in South America tooo!

Man Metals further suggest some more chart based buying in copper, lead & tin.

I have already topped up OXR (gold may soon bounce as well), ZFX & CBH. Looking for more evidence of that chart based buying (and the appropriate equity chart response) before topping up on some others.

(Message edited by tryhay on June 19, 2007)


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kate
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Wednesday, June 20, 2007 - 02:16 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Tryhay,
Re metal charts: Cu has a possible double top and needs to break above resistance of +/- 3.75
Waiting for Ni to retrace to $15/lb. Zn has a possible head and shoulders so just waiting to see what happens.

I have a feeling Cu won't go up, the US housing market is grinding to a halt and approx 30% of the world supply of Cu is used for new housing/infrastructure projects. Even with the increase in China's growth I doubt they'll pick up all the slack. Anyway that is personal opinion only, best to stick to the charts!

As for gold it is about as interesting as watching paint dry. Oil on the other hand is interesting, I think the hedge funds may be back in again, like me anticipating an active hurricane season this year.

The increase in bond yields are working as well as an interest rate rise so I don't see the US interest rates moving for a while. All in all pretty boring!

Regards
Kate


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rederob
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Wednesday, June 20, 2007 - 11:03 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear kate
I find your words have a wonderful habit of moving the markets.
I therefore predict a strong move in gold overnight!
It's "brass monkeys" in the "perfect the next" neck of the woods, so only fair that we are rewarded for our suffering!

tryhay
A brave move into OXR.
It remains my largest holding by value (over 15% of my portfolio) so I do keep a close watch.
I have a sneaking suspicion that those funds that keenly dropped the OX into a bear pit have now returned to curry favour. OXR's daily share transaction and price action do not equate with what I have typically noticed for this this stock: I see accumulation continuing on any price weakness at all, suggestive of a view that the OX has long term puff.

Near term I think nickel could come a cropper, but longer term I do see it reclaiming a lot of lost ground. I notice that despite a large slump in the nickel price, our nickel producers are steeling themselves against a fall. I'm not sure if that is just wishful thinking (my preferred view) or if there is some knowledge base that sees nickel holders in a different light (fanciful in my view).

All in all, the stronger for longer scene continues to play out, and the cast enjoys its encores.


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rederob
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Dear kate
I must have meant a strong move "down" in gold, overnight!

Have to agree that POG is as exciting to watch as another news piece on Iraq.


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kate
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Rederob,

I do enjoy a bit of humour with my breakfast, thanks.

Kate


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captain_chaza
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Ahoy Sea-Cadet-Officer KateSCO Katie

Breakfast at 1.30 PM in the afternoon is just not good enough for this Captain?

Every hour you do in preparation for Sea before 10.00AM is worth 5 hours you do after 10.00AM

This is a Goodie and an Oldie's Seamans hint
Take it or Leave it?

Salute and Gods speed




"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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kate
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Captain C,

You have a terrible memory, I'm the early riser, I may check into IC's commodity section early but I don't post until I have done the day's reading and scans.

Glad to see you back by the way, are you doing much in the way of trading, apart from the funds buying up BHP and RIO the rest of the sector is pretty boring?

Kate


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kate
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Tryhay

Ni rapidly approaching the $15 support. If it doesn't bounce off that I hate to think what's next.
I'm beginning to wonder if hedge funds are beginning to unwind the last of the long positions across both base and precious metals. With all the falls last night together with a drop in oil prices the XAO might be in for a rough ride for the next few days.

Kate


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tryhay
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Yes Kate,

I have no nickel stocks (sold several weeks ago) but still heavy into other base metals. May need to take some profit from soft commodities (AWB, AAC etc) particularly if the market wants to keep going lower.

Your gold prognosis of $635 may just be right ($640 as I type), and when the bounce occurs (if the long term Au uptrend is to continue) then that will be the time to top up on gold warrants & equities.

Kitco shows Zn, Al & Ni heading lower presently and Pb heading higher.

Perhaps current XAO performance is related to the traditional jitters before the Reserve bank statement later this week is causing concern? as well as the poor DOW performance

Mark


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hilarius
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Does anyone know a web-site where the historical daily prices of commodities can be downloaded as a text or csv file?


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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captain_chaza
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Ahoy Sea-Cadet and our Dear Friar Hilarius

I think I placed that information in
"Data is Everything" along time ago

It is nice to see you are coming around to the simple and basic concept of "Data"

Do you need 3 month old Data to match your 3 month old Fundamentals or do you think you can mix and match as in Brick 'n Brack or do you think you can come up with a completely new colour for MUD?

Salute and Gods' Speed


(Message edited by captain_chaza on June 28, 2007)


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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kate
Oil to burn!
The WTIC chart is looking very bullish.
And this is the best ime of year for a strong launch north.
Let's see if the "climate change" kicks in this year with some big Gulf of Mexico hurricanes.

ps, did you remember what i told you about copper last year? and it looks like copper is getting set to break its previous cycle high


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tryhay
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What a difference 6 months makes: for example copper from being the pariah hard commodity set is now apparently back in favour and is in fact technically well supported. Mornigstar's Per-Pound Copper Price Assumptions for 2007 was $2.69 and here we are at $3.54. I don't remember what the other metal forecasts were, but the charts display renewed vigour. Moreover the stocks of these metals are decreasing (as displayed below).

Furthermore, Pb is becoming the favourite commodity and which stocks are the ones likely to benefit? The charts below show the current status

Copper status: Definately needed that consolidation period

$Copper

Other metal price details: Not currently in downtrend

KITCO_spot-copper-1y spot-lead Zn


Other metal stock details: Not currently in uptrend

lme_copper-1y lme_lead-1y lme_zinc-1y

Not a bad scenario if you are keen on hard commodity stocks ~ wonder what the market is up to today?


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kate
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Rederob, Tryhay
Agree, things are picking up.........at last
Nickel was a buy day before yesterday, bounced as expected.
Zinc and copper looking like they might be recovering.
Lead looks ready to be dumped.

So, in theory it looks good, however China had a nose dive yesterday with predictions for another 10% drop which could contain prices in the short term. Certainly hope so, I'm stuck in a conference next week with no access to the buy and sell button - typical just when things are looking interesting.

Tryhay, bond yields went back up substantially last night which may mean the S&P 500 will drop tonight. Gold certainly will, I'm not even bothering to follow it any more.

Rederob, yes I remember what you said about copper, I'm still not convinced it will go places from where it is now, in the short term anyway. I think the US housing snowball is only beginning and will probably keep it in check.
As for oil.........sweet

Kate


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rederob
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Oil - bullish
Gold - trending higher, strong consolidation phase with little weakness, but no breakout in sight.........yet
Silver - a bit like gold, but with better fundamentals
Copper - strong, with potential to hit $10k if miner strike action continues. Expect flattening of US housing market to keep copper capped medium term, but will eventually turn and so will copper
Nickel - still weak, but technically improving. Expect further inventory build medium term to keep cap on prices, with downside to $25k a likely probability before a major turnaround
Aluminium - technically all over the shop, fundamentally weak near term, but with an eye on China's output a better clue can be seen
Zinc - fundamentally very strong with inventories showing continuing declines, albeit steady. Very much in copper's shadow but watch for LME inventory to fall under 50k tonnes for big action ahead
Lead - about to overtake zinc on the price curve. Further fundamental support ahead as mine supplies are not going to provide mill feed to satisfy consumer demand. Probable "bubble" to unimaginable heights before a major blow off
Tin - the lid's off; soldering on to new highs

All in all, for this time of year the mined/drilled commodities are very bullish. I expect the funds will be re-rating many of the producers again after reporting season as forecast long term prices - which form the basis of their future views - will yet again be ratcheted higher.


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sumamura
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by tomorrow night - 12 midnight GMT - i will be posting my weekly position trading levels for gold / silver / crude / al / copper / nat gas and sugar.
if u wish u can check the levels posted (on some forum )last sunday and how these commodities have performed over last week.
i am from india and i am also posting weekly posn trading levels for major world indices.


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sumamura
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check on this thread

Weekly projections for major commodities


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sumamura
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somehow, i missed posting my levels on this thread. any ay i am doing it now and i hope u wl still be able to use the same.
application/vnd.ms-excelweekly projections - 23rd / 27th july
commodity.xls (20.5 k)



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rederob
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My above post of 21 July is still as accurate as any comment I could make.

Despite the DOW's meltdown recently, metals and other commodities have been little changed.

The implication of this on equities is that their present price weakness makes them comparably more attractive than most other sectors; except to the extent that some might carry a heavy debt burden.

I don't have any short term view of the markets generally, apart from there being greater volatility. However, this has not spread to metals prices thus far.


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sumamura
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weekly projections - major commodities - 6th / 10th august 2007
application/octet-streamx
world indices.xls (20.5 k)



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kate
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Rederob,

Nickel breached the $15 support and if it doesn't find support around the $12.50 - $13 mark the next stop is around $7.50.

Copper is teetering on the edge and I think, will be the bellweather.

CBH hedging lead and zinc prices.

Atlantic ocean warming noticeably. Pity the oilers will be dragged down with the rest of the market. Now if we get a hurricane the oil price will shoot up and further depress the US market.

Not happy Jan!

Kate

The worst of the US news is due out in October so I'm presuming its just going to be volatility followed by volatility until then.
Back to the paintbrush for me.


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rederob
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Kate
When nickel gets nearer $20k the pig nickel exporters will not be able to compete with pure nickel (if the present price assumptions hold).
So if that were to occur, nickel's downside may be capped (or plugged) in the intermediate term.

Oil is still looking good and I am going to tip that it breaches $100 before year end, tho I don't think it will hold up that high till later next year.


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holycow
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just like to share this...

since this post: https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/316907/1070958.html

I had been quite positive on oil and privately I was betting oil would reach/recover to US75. The oil minors I held at one time were AWE, ROC, IPM, BPT, ARQ (missed out on NXS, TAP although were advised but didn't favour them at that time due to their poor chart pattern). Anyway, the ride was good.

I am out of most of them but a very small position in ARQ and BPT.

The point I like to make is this - if you observe the oil price and the performance of the oil stocks - not wanting to generalise too much, there seem to be a disconnect between the price of the commodity and the producer of that commodity. That is, whence the oil was at its highest, the oil stocks were already on their way down, which is quite different from its previous behaviour (in the most recent oil peak near US$78)

I would say that's the case too for most of the other minerals comparatively.

So what gives?

My theory - the credit crunch has taken away a lot of the cheap money and siphoned substantial liquidity away from the market. The speculative money that used to be available to churn the stock price upward has now greatly reduced, if not gone. Hence we see very little "sustaining power" of the stock.

Going forward and looking long term, it is prudent to look into the direct relationship between commodity prices and stock prices because at this moment, what assumed to be "proven" has now become questionable. That relationship will need to be tested and proven one more time or we may be ignoring what we are seeing.

JMV.


HC

"... he ain't no chart addict, but a TA junkie"

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kate
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Rederob,

If we have hurricanes oil may make the $100, if we don't and US growth declines it will go down from here.
BPT looks sick at present, prefer the look of KAR, EPG, OSH, AOE, AUT and at a push AWE. I have fond memories of EPG!

Have you been looking at natural gas companies?

Kate


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rederob
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Your Holiness the Cow
In the present market there are more disconnects than a Telstra customer service officer could handle.
I like BPT because it has excellent margins and has amongst (if not) the best reserves for a small oiler in Oz. It also will not be impacted by any of Kate's Gulf hurricanes.
Furthermore, I do not share Kate's concern that oil may be linked to US economic activity to any significant degree.
The wheels that turn the oil price are geared to move up more regularly than down, for many, many years to come.
In fact, I am very pleased that oil prices were steady over the last year as a much needed breath was caught and the next upleg will not come as a surprise: We shall be prepared and weather it relatively well!

Kate
I have not been looking at natural gas companies since our last discussions.
I have an ill informed view that a lot of long term contracts have been locked down since last year's price spike, and that this is not going to do medium term justice to an entry.
I freely admit to being out of my depth here, so could well be wrong, and badly.


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captain_chaza
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Ahoy Dear Sea-Cadet-Officer Katie

My advice to you would be to
"Leave the Goose alone!
Even when "Misery Loves Company"

Salute and Gods' speed



"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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kate
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HC
Around the end of May hedge funds start moving into oil futures in anticipation of the hurricane season. Hurricanes - Bay of Mexico, you know the story. This also co-insides with the US driving season which puts pressure on oil supply. Much of the price rise is manipulated and if the share market is going up you can usually hitch a short to medium ride with a few of the oilers. This year however there is a bit of a credit squeeze(to put it mildly) and nobody wants to hold any of those companies who are still exploring/have a lot of debt/etc etc. If you were buying, it would be proven producers until things settle down.
Rederob is long term and can afford to stay in through the swings, I on the other hand am short to medium term and don't stay in the market during downswings.
So, best ever scenario, underlying commodity up, share market up, shortage of commodity and a good chart! Bring back those days.

Rederob
Last year was an El Nino year so I presume the hedgies didn't even bother.
I haven't looked at natural gas either, I had hoped you had so I didn't have to bother.

Captain C
If we were all the same life would be boring.


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holycow
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Kate and R2R,

The reason why I still hold both BPT and ARQ is because I was still ahead a couple of days ago and now I am barely breaking even. Right this morning the urge to get rid of them was really strong but somehow I didn't pull the trigger. I guess I was thinking of seeing the last card - the rate decision by RBA as well as the Feds - this Wednesday.

Long term, I am with R2R. I think the potential of oil/gas (more on gas for power generation and green house gases emission and carbon trading) is great. Before that I am expecting this group to see a down ward cyclical move - hopefully it will shake out most of the speculators before making another upward cycle.

On credit squeeze - I am adhering to the cockroach theory - we ain't see all of them yet. Just wait till we see a whole nest of them nasty hedge fund blowing up all over the globe in Japan, Europe, S. Americas and some part of Asia.

I am frankly quite amazed to still read the "playing down" reason that this sub-prime problem is only limited to the sub-prime market. Today, S&P and the banks are telling us Aussie banks are in good hand, not exposed. Two months ago, I seem to remember the same good news was told - sub-prime is a very small market, and Aussie banks are well behaved when come to low/no doc loans. No worry mate!

Since then... we all know by now that we woke up one morning to read about Basis, Absolute, and the MacBank blowing up one by one. So, if someone were to ask me to bet again on whether Aussie banks are the best banks in the world, and on accepting they are not exposed to... this sub-prime problem and no worry mate, - I will only accept a guarantee signed by John Howard+Peter Costello+theRBAChief (what's his name?) altogether.

Or there's no deal from me! I am expecting more to come.


Cheers.


HC

"... he ain't no chart addict, but a TA junkie"

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kate
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Oil, gold and most of the metals down last night.

Number of storms downgraded from 5 to 4

BHP and RIO down 2.6-2.8% in London overnight.

Interest rates more than likely up tomorrow (Australia).
Interest rates more than likely on hold in US.

All in all it looks like another day with the paintbrush.


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captain_chaza
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Fear not Brave Katie

BHP and RIO recovered in NY
The Pommies were only playing catch-up on Friday's last 2 hour action

The DOW rose 220 points in the last few hours again (after most commodity markets were closed) so I expect they will rise in one revolution of the Sun in London and earlier in Asian Markets

Salute and Gods' speed

The Bear Hunter


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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kate
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Captain C
I hope so, I absolutely detest painting.

Kate


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captain_chaza
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Ahoy SCO Katie

A "Possible" Hurricane is building-up 500 miles off-shore in the Bermuda triangle headed for America/Gulf of Mexico

These build-ups can sometimes take 4-5 days and is therefore yet to be "Named"

It might be a good idea to start "Battening down the Hatches!"
just in case this one doesn't fizzle out and gets a Real Name?

"Safety is Everything" at sea

Salute and Gods' speed


(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on August 14, 2007)


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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gohard
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Is this the one you mean CC



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captain_chaza
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Crikey Officer Gohard

I wasn't looking that far South

Those 3 weather depressions you see revolve in an anti-clockise manner

As you can clearly see there are 3 Possible Hurricanes on the way into the Mexican Gulf

The Third is by far the largest depression and could even breed in with those two smaller depressions on each side

This would be Horrific if she ever bred into
"A Perfect Storm"

Salute and Gods' speed


PS If that Third Storm on your charts breeds into a Fully fledged Revolving Storm I'd like to it to be named
"Braveheart"
After the most ample cook I have ever sailed with



"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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kate
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Gohard , you missed the one in the ASX!

Can't believe there are a pile of depressions about and the market is being hammered. There is something to say for ETFs.

Next year maybe.


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gohard
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Kate you are right like the asx the storm has developed again today. Lots of rough weather ahead.
For CC a practise in my nav 20deg35mtsN 90deg10mtsW Centre?



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rederob
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Kate
Oil remains bullish!
Only another $18 to go for the jig to be up (to $100).
The Fed decision will inflate oil prices to greater highs so if there is another GOM event, then it won't be difficult for POO to gush.
If you have a liking of gas, and oil is also doing well, WPL seems like an excellent fit, given its massive LPG contracts with China. In fact, it is hard to see WPL dipping to any significant degree in the long term - a safe play!
Elsewhere, the metals remain as strong as ever despite constant rumour of inevitable stock builds of great proportion: Little wonder BHP keeps hitting new record highs.


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kate
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Rederob

Mainly exposed to oil stocks at the moment, inevitably the POO will go down no matter how many peak oil theorists you listen to but enjoying the ride for now. Were you listening to the same financial news program as I was, I've been pondering about WPL for the last couple of days!??

Regards
Kate


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rederob
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Kate
Peak oil will keep oil prices trending strongly higher for many years to come.
I can't comment on the financial news program you heard recently as I have mostly relied on "reading".
After 20 months of consolidation, WPL is poised for a very strong breakout.
So too is BPT, and in my estimation its recent acquisition and new (albeit small scale) production will see it outperform in percentage terms. However, I expect WPL will remain in the limelight, rising faster quicker, while BPT is more likely to run higher for a little longer as analysts realise (belatedly) its earnings capabilities.

Elsewhere, I notice nickel is finally getting some decent drawdowns after massive LME restocking. Nickel jumped back to $30k although I remain wary of the present short term trend: We need to see more consumer buying before getting optimistic about another tilt at $40k or higher.


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kate
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Rederob

Missed getting into MRE and MCR when they gapped up as I was too busy fine tuning my oil selection. Will pick them up when they fill the gaps. I'm only short to medium term so will take profit if the Ni price looks weak again.
I'm not worrying about fundamentals this time, selecting only on good chart patterns. Should get a decent run on all commodities for a little while global disasters permitting! Gold doing well and platinum might catch up with any luck. Do you know of any gold explorers/producers in China or the US or any other country pegged to the US dollar?

Will keep a watch on BPT but earnings haven't translated into a nice chart yet so spending elsewhere.

Regards
Kate


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captain_chaza
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Ahoy Sweet Princess Ann

Could you please PM us at IC with your latest COPPER stocks


If you are still stranded on the Island of Coventry please email me privately

Crikey! Anyone would think you murdered the Pope his Parents and his children

How bad were you when you were really bad?
Really?

I get the feeling it's now time to change tack to Industrial metals

XMAS is almost upon us us!

I promise not to share your latest COPPER lists with any of your murdering detractors is you so wish

Your absence has been a real pity to all of us over the years
"THEY" are just simply fools at Sea and never appreciated the gift/s you were offering

It was down-right stupid to the "N th" degree IMHO

What else can you expect from such Greedy Grasses and Landlubbers

They always seem to stab themselves in the thumbs
No more duty on the ropes!


PS Admiral
Since everyone of My Sweet & Sour Ann's Detractors have either been removed or moved on elsewhere by now

What about it?
CRIKEY!
Even murderers with Life sentences don't get Life!

Surely she has already paid the ultimate price ?
AND
I for ONE miss her greatly!!!!

Salute and Gods' speed



"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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tryhay
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Copper has been consolidating for >18 months ~ looks like we will soon see if it has the strength to rise above resistance or drop through support (or less likely keep sliding sideways)

Daily chart:

Cu


Happy trading DYOR

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captain_chaza
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Ahoy there

Have I missed something in the current Iron-Ore negotiations?

VALE achieved an agreed 65% increase yesterday

RIO today suggested that a 71% increase would be more apt because the transportation costs from Australia are 6% cheaper than from Brazil

Crikey!
In the "Art of Negotiation 101" shouldn't they have said it costs 6% more to ship Iron Ore from Australia than from Brazil to substantiate thier argument for the 6% more?

Salute and Gods' speed


PS Officer Tryhay

I hope you are keeping a vigilant eye on the Copper Chart?

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on February 19, 2008)


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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stocky
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captain, it all depends on who's paying for the shipping.

I assume the miner gets it to the port and then its the purchasers obligation?


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tryhay
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I do not think you missed anything in the negotiation ~ more like a "hard nosed" approach (commonly known as a "good business approach (sic)).

My guess is that copper isn't going up, in fact the indicators suggest Cu is heading for another swing lower (just not sure how much lower yet)

Daily chart:

Cu


Happy trading DYOR

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captain_chaza
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Ahoy Officer Tryhay

I always give a lot of respect to the 4th attempt at tops

Triple tops are Well Known at Sea but Quadruple Tops are relatively "Unknown"

You may not be seeing the latest of Data on your charts

My taxi driver heard Cu >3% rise in Asia today?!

Salute and Gods speed


PS It seems to me the only safe cruise strategy in these Seas ATM is
Commods! Commods! and more Commods!

PPS Thanks Sea-Cadet Stockie
What you say makes a lot of cents


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rockon
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CC,

Premium from Aust. has something to do with our close proximity to China and the tonnage which can be landed there as opposed to South America.

As there are only so many ships on the sea and with China needing a constant flow of material,it's possible that shipping companies also prefer carting from Aust due to the short distance but I know not about this angle.

I did read recently that Rio Tinto was considering building a few ships of their own solely to cater for Chinas' demand for Iron Ore which may highlight the transport situation. Cheers.


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captain_chaza
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Commods, Commods, Commods

Looks like it may be Copper, Lead and Zinc tomorrow

Crikey!
Isn't there ever going to be any rest for my Brave crew?
It would be nice to have a long weekend but
"The Wind Calls the Tune"

It's a real pity Courage wasn't given to Everyone,Hey?
But then again,
It could be a Good Thing?

We Seaman always need Greedy Landlubbers at the tops with healthy Volumes of Dollars and with their Long term excuses only a mother would believe to pass the Buck

Please don't ever forget that Lesson My Brave and Loyal crew!
It's an Oldie but a Goodie!

Salute and Gods'speed

Crikey!This is so frustrating!
It's like being in a candy store with no bloody money!

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on February 21, 2008)


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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captain_chaza
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Ahoy Brave and Loyal crew

I just took a stroll around the ship and noticed I didn't have a Really Great Copper Sheet

Nothing to compare to the Great ANTO:LN

Surely we have an Ozzie design that would do the same job?

Anybody got any good ideas other than OXR
I think the OX is more Gold than Copper Nowadays which I already have flying as tandem sheets?

Salute and Gods' speed



"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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stocky
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PNA...? not purely a copper play. prob bit like OXR actually..

From Comsec. the Phu Kham Copper-Gold-Silver Project, which is located under the Phu Bia gold cap and expected to begin production in mid 2008. Production is forecast at 50,000t Cu, 50,000oz Au and 400,000oz Ag in concentrate for at least 12 years.


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ken
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Captain,

Try ABY.

Ken


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captain_chaza
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Ahoy Brave and Loyal Crew

Hold onto your hats!

Another great night in Paradise

Salute and God's speed



"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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tryhay
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I think it strange that the copper, gold & other hard commodities have broken out on their charts and most of our miners have been sliding sideways ~ just didnt feel right...

Copper daily: wonder if the MA's will actually cross? OX and few others are looking good but not sure for how long...

Cu

I'm not sure of the future but have been conservatively been sitting on my shorts with limited longs ATM

bhp daily: USA listing already looks to be setting up the swing lower

bhp

it is a strange world we live in..


Happy trading DYOR

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stocky
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Tryhay, don't forget the rising AUD/USD is hurting a lot of companies and forecasts are for a continued rise.

Cheers,
Stocky.


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tryhay
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I should have said that BHP wasn't going up, but some hards commodities are...

Looks like the pointy heads at BHP are getting their comeupance dished up by the chinese ~ who don't appreciate our hard nosed negotiating approach:


tryhay wrote on Tuesday, February 19, 2008 - 08:31 pm:

do not think you missed anything in the negotiation ~ more like a "hard nosed" approach (commonly known as a "good business approach (sic)).




Perhaps not a even handed approach to levy a surcharge on our transport costs just because we are closer and have poorer quality ore (when compared to chillie)

This is a bad time to have bad FA news released about BHP <http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/china-locks-out-bhp-and-rio-ore/2008/03/17/1205602326667.html>

Perhaps our manderin speaking PM will be prevailed upon whilst on his grand tour.

Wonder what direction the candles will go tomorrow in NY? not to mention here today...

Daily chart: MACD cross occurring as we speak ~ and the other indicators don't look like a bounce occurring here

NY_BHP


Happy trading DYOR

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rederob
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Oil has consolidated this week, consistently closing over $120 per barrel. It remains overbought, yet has not let this stop it from further rises. A tilt at $150 has gone from a low probability event this year, to "just a matter of time".

Nickel is swinging down and might get back to the $25k range again unless inventories are drawn down more strongly than at present. Should this happen, a tilt at $40k before year end is on the cards. Otherwise a safe meander in the $25k - $35k is likely.

Lead and nickel remain in the doldrums. Both are confounding by virtue of low inventories, but also low prices; reason being mostly attributable to supply capacity being more than adequate. Hard to see a sustainable rise occurring this year, although downside appears almost capped.

Aluminium is going to suffer supply constraints in coming years unless cheaper energy becomes more widely available globally. Not my favourite metal as its energy intensity seem out of whack with modern values.

Copper
New highs hit this year for the industrial metal.
Major producers are having difficulty ramping output. Seems some new capacity from African nations has saved the day. When the US is out of its stupor I expect this metal will fire on all cylinders as US homes are hugely copper intensive, and this marginal additional demand could end up the straw that breaks the camels back in 2009. Until then I see downside to $7k range being well bought into, so downside near term is not likely to last long. On the other hand, a small chance at $10k is on the cards by year's end.

I'm not sure the subprime fiasco has worked through the system yet, so until the last quarter of this year I will mostly be an interested observer. I don't think the ingredients are yet in place to optimistically re-enter this market.


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kate
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Parachutes at the ready!

It looks as though India is going to reduce the subsidies on diesel and petrol.

http://www.ft.com/home/asia


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rederob
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kate
That is good news, not bad.
Energy costs need to be fairly priced into finished products, which will see subsidised products increase in cost.
Might be a short term impact, but from a commodity perspective I see it as bullish into the medium term.
Time is getting nearer to seeing some value appear in equity prices, but I still think the downleg has a lot more left to go.
Fence sitting till September,


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kate
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Rederob

Who said anything about bad, its excellent........as long as it happens!

Kate


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rederob
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Over a year since any posts in this thread.

Base metals snapshot:

Copper
Reasonable supplies available, with recent price rises resulting from speculation that various nation's stimulus packages (plus consistent Chinese demand) will place pressure on inventory builds.

Nickel
Record LME inventories, but no cap on price rises over recent months. Overbought and at unsustainable price levels. Price has moved well ahead of improved stainless steel order books,
Aluminium
More material around than you can poke a stick at. Nevertheless, price has appreciated in conjunction with other metals. My least preferred metal in an energy dependent economy.

Zinc
As with other metals, has moved ahead in price despite large - but nowhere near record - inventories. Hard to see it gain much more in price in near to medium term.

Lead
Has some demand from increased Chinese vehicle manufacture, but otherwise is in a bit of a holding pattern. Reasonable inventories and more likely to decline a bit in price before any sustainable or market price increase.

Summary
Overbought in the main, with demand at steady levels and supply capacity more than adequate given inventory levels which are best described as robust.
Medium term pick is copper as most likely to see demand improve and supply unable to match it. Should the US housing and construction industries pick up steadily before year's end, copper will be the place to be.


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sumamura
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Monday, October 19, 2009 - 09:42 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



weekly levels for gold / silver / crude / copper n gas / sugar

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sumamura
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Monday, October 19, 2009 - 09:42 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



weekly levels for gold / silver / crude / copper n gas / sugar

weekly commodity levels


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sumamura
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Sunday, November 28, 2010 - 06:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



now i have my own website www.sumamura.com

you can see world indices weekly, commodities weekly. world indices / commodities mpnthly under different modules.

module section needs registration which is free.

this weeks levels are loaded already.

pl go to www.sumamura.com > log in > register as free member > tab modules

you can go thru the other contents of the website also but it is mostly related to indian markets.

if you have any difficulty, pl send me a personal message.

i hope you will find weekly and monthly levels interesting and worth trading.


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sumamura
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Monday, December 06, 2010 - 02:08 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



now i have my own website www.sumamura.com

you can see world indices weekly, commodities weekly. world indices / commodities mpnthly under different modules.

module section needs registration which is free.

this weeks levels are loaded already.

pl go to www.sumamura.com > log in > register as free member > tab modules

you can go thru the other contents of the website also but it is mostly related to indian markets.

if you have any difficulty, pl send me a personal message.

i hope you will find weekly and monthly levels interesting and worth trading.


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ehmu
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Thursday, December 09, 2010 - 02:07 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peek at the gold miners.

I guess in anticipation of the Chinese action to increase interest rates (supposedly friday dec10, forcing commodities to cool off.






_____ n a m a s t e

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sumamura
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Tuesday, April 26, 2011 - 12:01 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



26th april 2011 - 7 am

look at how silver cracked.

in yesterdays weekly commodity levels, i had mentioned strategy to go short - pl hv a look ......

www.sumamura.com > login > modules

u can see weekly as well as monthly levels .....

pl let me hv yr comments ......


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sumamura
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Sunday, May 15, 2011 - 05:11 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



i see silver trading with in 3 dollars with 34.5 dollars as mean ..... in the short term .......

my weekly levels are posted on my website ...... last week they made very good money .... what about this week ... lets wait and watch ..... check www.sumamura.com > musings tomorrow morning .......







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sumamura
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Thursday, June 02, 2011 - 08:15 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



JUNE 2011 monthly levels ......

june 2011 monthly levels


www.sumamura.com
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