You need to register separately on the Chart Forum
- see Chart Forum Help
Edit Profile Profile Help Help
Forum Rules Forum Rules Advanced Help/Instructions Advanced Help
Search Last 1|3|7 Days Latest Posts Latest Posts
Search Search Forum Tree View Tree View
   
Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through August 06, 2004

Chart Forum » Commodities & Futures » Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through August 06, 2004

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»


Author Message

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
vermante
Member
Username: vermante

Post Number: 158
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, June 27, 2004 - 07:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,



What percentage of global base metal transactions pass through LME ?

I presume the major base metal producers and users would have individual contracts .

If that is the case ? Whats is the relevance of the LME warehouse stock levels. ?

Does the LME base metals warehouse levels truly reflect the demand/supply equation for global base metal usage ?

What are the possible weaknesses in using LME data


Cheers

Vermante





Cheers

Vermante


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 159
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, June 27, 2004 - 08:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



vermante
They are excellent questions and I do not know precise answers.
But some info:
Currently there are over 400 LME warehouses in some 32 locations covering the USA, Europe, the Middle and the Far East.
COMEX and Shanghai exchanges also have warehouses, but not comparable to LME's.
Presently LME accounts for around 30% of total base metal stocks.
While it was true that manufacturers held large stocks on inventory, modern technology and transport systems mean that there is little need to keep much stock on hand. So exchange warehouses are more relevant today than ever.
I do not know the extent that manufacturers have direct contracts with metals producers, or where that data may be.
I would imagine that only the largest manufacturers could negotiate such contracts in any event and would be grateful if any readers could help out here.
Metals producers need to be exposed to rising markets (when they occur), so if they lock into direct delivery contracts (which would generally be long term) they can lose out big time.
LME provides merchants with the flexibility they need to sell to spot or hedge their commodities so as to better manage their business.
LME stock levels are relevant in they they reflect the base metals market better than any other indicator - transparent, reliable and the historical data correlates highly with commodity booms and busts.
Possible weaknesses in using LME data? Same as in using any data if you understand how the data is derived in the first instance.
The biggest danger, however, is not knowing how "substitution" may impact the markets when prices rise too high (recall what happened to palladium for an example).
Substitution is a major issue for nickel, where lesser grades of steel can be used for similar products.
However, copper has few present competitors as its price would probably have to increase many times before manufacturers began shopping for something that could achieve the same outcome.
As a footnote, you need to ask yourself if the largest market player is showing a particular trend, how likely is it that its competitors/peers could be experiencing something different.
In this case LME's economies of scale give it a market edge, so it may just be that its warehouses run out first - I don't know, but we all might find some answers before Christmas.







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
vermante
Member
Username: vermante

Post Number: 159
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, June 28, 2004 - 08:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

Thanks for the response, much appreciated . Similar to you, I read extensively , and follow the LME markets.The overall market consensus using persuasive arguments based on LME supply /demand data is that we are heading for a commodities boom.In fact "they" are barking it from the tree tops . It appears so damn obvious that I am vary of walking into a "succour punch"

Below is an extract from a leading financial daily news letter re oil

"A pullback in crude oil prices, which slumped on an unexpectedly big rise in U.S. crude oil inventories, helped soothe some of Wall Street's jitters".

The quote " on an unexpectedly big rise in inventories" which applies to oil stocks could be similarly applicable to LME warehouse levels and hence creates uncertainty in the mind of the investor/trader

As you are aware a rise in inventories either due to increase in production or a decrease in demand generally leads to declining prices .

If you refer to LME warehouse levels re Zinc you would note a dramatic increase in stock levels in the last fornight.I have yet to track down a reason , but will do so when time permits.

My conclusion re the use of LME data is that whilst useful re-determining the short term direction of particular markets, should be treated with caution as to long term forecasts


Cheers

Vermante}}


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
johnboy
Member
Username: johnboy

Post Number: 27
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, June 28, 2004 - 01:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Guys,

From what I know, the smelters lock into a contract with the producers for tonnes and charges, but not metals prices. The Treatment Charge and Refining Charge are set at cost per tonne. Then there's a Price Participation rate that varies with the metal prices (but this isn't huge amounts). The price paid for the contained metal is based on the spot rate. I don't know how many smelters have contracts but knowing the total size of the supply contracts would be interesting data.

Like Rederob said, manufacturers and suppliers can then use the LME or whichever exchange to hedge their risks.

Hope that helps a bit.

John.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 161
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, June 28, 2004 - 04:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for that John

vermante
Oils ain't oils!
Inventory levels for US oil do not match the supply demand scenario for base metals:

As you can see, there is little change to stock levels year on year (slight actual increase in 2004).
However, prices are up - well over 25%


Crowson of LME wrote about our issue in March this year:
http://www.lme.co.uk/downloads/lmestocks_marketbalances.pdf
What he makes clear is that warehouses now account for a greater proportion of available total supply than ever before AND that it is important to note that past supply levels should not be seen as adequate in today's terms.
The implication is that lower stock levels today (copper and nickel in particular) have greater potential than ever to drive prices higher as the net impact of no supply multiplies manifold.

What I consider most important in the supply imbalance equation is that there is virtually no net restocking occurring for the base metals (apart from zinc and tin of late) on a daily, weekly or monthly basis.

Let's for argument's sake assume net restocking was occurring now. Do market fundamentals suggest a slowdown in China or the US, or Japan? Not a lot, if any at all, is my answer today.
Therefore, unless restocking rates were significant (greater than 5% per week), the spectre of destocking and higher prices would remain.
My point is that the present trend is likely to continue for some time, and certainly well after clear restocking signals are given.
As an example, if copper stocks increased 100%, that level is only 20% of its level 12months ago.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 163
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 30, 2004 - 01:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nickel is on another upleg, so the 5 year cash chart is illuminating:


Contrast this with supply over the same period, which I have inverted so that the inverse relationship becomes clear:


After tonight's Fed rates decision, which should finally see a rate rise, a rebalancing of markets should take place over coming weeks.
With US consumer confidence at a 2year high, its market for metals will remain buoyant in the near term.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 165
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, June 30, 2004 - 09:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



While copper got a brief restocking on LME yesterday, the theme of drawdowns continues tonight:

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tonnes in Storage & Change from
yesterday
Aluminum 942,925 -4150
Copper 104,575 -800
Nickel 8,430 -30
Lead 45,475 -350
Zinc 731,125 -900

New York Futures Market Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tons in Storage & Change from
yesterday
Aluminum 121,699 -7672
Copper 96,044 -1565

Against common sense, warehouse data and anecdote we hear that total stocks of aluminium at western world smelters (excluding finished end-products) rose to 3.092 million tonnes at the end of May 2004 from 2.916 million in April and 3.026 million in May 2003. These data cited by Reuters from provisional International Aluminium Institute figures.
Analysts are at a loss to explain the aluminium position - maybe someone entered some dodgy data!
On the copper front we have an early rise today, as workers prepared to begin a strike on Friday at the Collahuasi mine in Chile.
With copper supplies tightening it won't take much to spook the market one way or the other.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 166
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, July 01, 2004 - 06:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear hilarius
Readers are in dire need of another original artwork (me, at least!)

Yesterday was fantastic for commodities - nickel and lead jumping around 5% each.
Tonight sees the copper squeeze closing in on LME inventory's magical 100,000 tonne figure with a 3% drawdown.
US copper usage data showed that 2003 was down on 2002:
http://www.copper.org/resources/market_data/pdfs/2004_Annual_Data.pdf
Interesting to see where copper goes in the US, so here's the facts:
Building construction (3,382 million pounds) continued to be the largest end-use market for copper products, accounting for nearly half, 48.4%, of total U.S. usage. Electrical and electronic products (1,450 million pounds) accounted for 20.7% of total usage; consumer and general products (759 million pounds), 10.9%; transportation equipment (724 million pounds), 10.4%; and industrial machinery and equipment (675 million pounds), 9.6%.
Given a pick-up in US activity this calendar year, it's not hard to see why exchange inventory continues to decline.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 174
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, July 06, 2004 - 07:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tonight we cop a double whammy of drawdowns at LME: breaching the milestone of 100,000mt of copper and 8,000mt nickel.

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
yesterday
Aluminum 932,925 -1425
Copper 99,625 -375
Nickel 7,830 -282
Lead 43,800 -275
Zinc 725,825 -2250

While volumes have been thin, the uptrend since May has continued and it is difficult to see any significant turnaround near term.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius

Post Number: 241
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, July 06, 2004 - 08:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rederob

Thinking of more artworks as per your Thursday request

Below is one ... with a question

What does it mean when there are fluctuations in the cash price compared with the 15 month price?

If both are rising and the cash price gets relatively stronger is that bullish?

What does it mean when the ratio of the cash price to the 15 month price weakens, even as both prices are rising?

Are there implications for the share prices of producers?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

Cash


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 176
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, July 06, 2004 - 10:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hilarius
Lost in space my previous attempts to post.
Simply put:
Oversupplied commodity has low spot price compared to futures (contango).
Converse for near outages of stock (backwardation).
"neutral" supply/demand generally has a slightly higher futures price to reflect cost of warehousing.
Read the basic explanation at:
http://www.fenews.com/fen35/back_to_basics/back_to_basics.htm
The cash-threes or cash to 3 month futures price is most commonly used, rather than 15 months futures.
When the rate of backwardation starts to increase for a commodity it usually implies trading is thinning and volatility is high: Good for equities, tough for futures speculators.
Watch the equilibrium on Alumium change as its stocks drawdown further. Currently in contango, aluminium is closing in on a zero cash-threes. When it goes into backwardation traders get a signal that its bullishness has moved into overdrive.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 179
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: 
Votes: 1


Thursday, July 08, 2004 - 09:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hilarius
This snippet reflects what may be in store for BHP:
July 7 (Bloomberg) --
"Alcoa Inc., the world's biggest aluminum maker, said second-quarter profit almost doubled as prices surged and high-margin sales to airplane and automobile makers grew.

Net income rose to $404 million, or 46 cents per share, from $216 million, or 26 cents, a year earlier, Pittsburgh-based Alcoa said in a statement. Sales rose 11 percent to $6.1 billion, its highest in three years.

Alcoa benefited from a 25 percent rise in the average selling price of its aluminum in the quarter and a 4.5 percent boost in shipments spurred by demand from China and an improving U.S. economy."

Overnight the base metals complex rose across the board - copper, nickel and lead each by around 2%, with zinc the laggard picking up only 0.5%.



Commodities have now topped for the 5th time in under 6 months (via above GFMS index above).
Coming of a higher base, and continiung at a lesser rate of ascent than the previous highs, this current rally holds every chance of turning 146 resistance into support.
The complex sits some 50% higher on average in 2004 than last year - so the pundits that forecast BHP to have its biggest year in history have every reason to be confident.
Not only will BHP pick up via metals, its exposure to higher oil prices will see it with a clean sweep in every area of its business.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 198
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 16, 2004 - 07:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The weekly warehouse update shows:

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from yesterday
Aluminum 917,400 down-4225
Copper 95,425 down-425
Nickel 8,976 up+402
Lead 41,950 down-250
Zinc 714,750 down-3150

New York Futures Market Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from yesterday
Aluminum 119,454 up+157
Copper 87,760 down-456

Three solid days of nickel restocking has done little to affect its price. May need to push over 20,000 tonnes before the pressure comes off and prices resume a less volatile range.
Meanwhile copper drawdowns in US and on LME keep the red metal on the high side of US$1.25/lb.
Some sideways movement in the GFMS index, tho holding over 145 for time being.
We need to see if the "sleepy" season in US takes some steam from the base metals over coming months or if the China syndrome heads us towards meltdown.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 208
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, July 20, 2004 - 08:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Despite LME warehouse nickel inventory adding over 15% in the past week, nickel prices have remained robust - even rising over 2% today.
There is some thought that nickel replenishment is due to WMC deferrals heading into LME warehouses. That could explain why the market has not pegged nickel prices back.
Both copper and aluminium complexes continue their inventory drawdowns, so maybe the market perceives overall sentiment to be firm to strong.

LME inventory @ 20/07/04:
London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
yesterday
Aluminum 905,300 -3350
Copper 93,000 -2150
Nickel 10,374 +246
Lead 40,975 +100
Zinc 708,300 -4175


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 216
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 23, 2004 - 05:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



NYMEX light crude oil prices double-topped in the past week so we shall see if it's a continuation of uptrend - likely to be revealed tonight (or within the fortnight) as Russia's oil baron fights off bankruptcy for his baby, Yukos.

I am plumping for a new high tonight - over $42 - as things do not look rosy on the supply side, but very strong still on the demand side.

I wondered how influential OPEC was to the greater scheme of things.
Below is a selection from OPEC's website:
OPEC is an international Organization of eleven developing countries which are heavily reliant on oil revenues as their main source of income. Membership is open to any country which is a substantial net exporter of oil and which shares the ideals of the Organization. The current Members are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

Since oil revenues are so vital for the economic development of these nations, they aim to bring stability and harmony to the oil market by adjusting their oil output to help ensure a balance between supply and demand. Twice a year, or more frequently if required, the Oil and Energy Ministers of the OPEC Members meet to decide on the Organization's output level, and consider whether any action to adjust output is necessary in the light of recent and anticipated oil market developments.

OPEC's eleven Members collectively supply about 40 per cent of the world's oil output, and possess more than three-quarters of the world's total proven crude oil reserves.

The OPEC Reference Basket price—which was introduced on January 1, 1987—is the arithmetic average of seven selected crudes. These are: Saharan Blend (Algeria); Minas (Indonesia); Bonny Light (Nigeria); Arab Light (Saudi-Arabia); Dubai (United Arab Emirates), Tia Juana Light (Venezuela), and Isthmus (Mexico). Mexico is not a member of OPEC.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 218
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, July 24, 2004 - 11:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dollar ran hot last night knocking the bejeeezers out of base metals except lead.
My oil tip failed to burn through $42/bbl, but there is always next week!
Would have been interesting if the euro gained on the dollar instead of vice versa.
Did the fundamentals change, is the real question?
Nup.
LME copper in European warehouses is in chronic shortage, with supplies in Shanghai just holding. Drawdowns continue, though the pace slowing.
Nickel inventory remains tight.
Heavy demand for lead continues, and this metal looks headed much higher near term.
Funds gambling on the short side of the base metals complex will need to play their cards carefully.
The Chinese joker remains inscrutably hidden amid a pack of number cards still face down.
We need to bear in mind that producers are now running at capacity to deliver into a strong market - they have had the past year to ramp up output.
Any hiccup can cause wild fluctuation in prices here on in - as evidenced by simple news items about labour negotiations, let alone strikes.
Plant closures, even for planned maintenance, will pressure prices upwards.
Another factor ignored by some commentators is that producers have been steadily putting up prices this year, thereby raising the floor price for most metals.
While prices remain high and delivery contracts fall due for renewal, these higher prices become easier to lock in and gain general market acceptance.
WMC's view that nickel prices are still too high may well be valid (in that the profit margin is now excellent), but WMC alone does not meet market demand.
Until nickel inventory is back over 15,000tonnes the metal is unlikely to fall below $12,000/tonne.
Until inventory is well above 20,000tonnes nickel is unlikely to fall below $10,000/tonne - demand pressures dictate these prices - and $10,000 is a 40% premium over average prices in 2003.
I anticipate a major recovery in base metals prices next week as last night was plain and simple overdone.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 238
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 30, 2004 - 10:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



One of the more interesting market indicators for base metals is the proportion of cancelled warrants to inventory.
In normal markets this value would be in the 5% or lower range (slightly higher for aluminium as daily volumes are significantly higher than other base metals).
As markets tighten the value increases: Thus over the past week we see aluminium at 16%, copper at 12%, nickel at 6%, and lead at a whopping 21%.
I have omitted zinc as it is a true laggard at just a few percent.
These data are in full accord with the price action.
Nickel is presently "off the boil".
However do not discount a turnaround for nickel as with less than 10,000 tonnes available the percentages move disproportionately - ie a 500tonne withdrawal today would equal a 2,000tonne withdrawal at the beginning of the year in percentage terms.

Changing quickly to oil, I was a few days off with the record number.
But Yukos is not out of the woods, OPEC is not meeting demand, and SE Asian demand is very strong.
With funds diving in on the long side of oil, expect to see $45/bbl near term.


Parva scintilla saepe magnam flamam excitat.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 244
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, July 30, 2004 - 09:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nymex light crude hit an all time contract high during the week and continues to push higher still - targeting $45/bbl next week.
WPL, OSH and STO continue to do well, particularly WPL, as sen below:



On the base metals front we see the continuing trend of drawdowns:
London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
yesterday
Aluminum 869,700 -2875
Copper 88,450 -725
Nickel 10,158 -102
Lead 37,175 -300
Zinc 706,050 -175

New York Futures Market Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tons in Storage Change from
yesterday
Aluminum 129,403 +2766
Copper 79,852 -1119

Copper and lead are running hard, while nickel is just coasting along.
A fire at Noranda's Chilean plant will lower copper production by 30k tonnes over coming months, straining an already tight market.
If there is to be a summer siesta in base metals it looks late coming.
Apart from aluminium and zinc, which should see out the year with stock in warehouses, the other complexes are going to having interesting 4th quarter if the present rates of drawdown are any indication.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
archer
Member
Username: archer

Post Number: 249
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 01, 2004 - 02:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"If you want to clean the air and reduce dependency on the Arab world's oil exports, you've got to have copper, you've got to have nickel and you've got to have platinum. This puts Australia in an extremely favourable position," he said.

http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0%2C5478%2C10279032%255E462%2 C00.html


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 251
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 01, 2004 - 03:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



But he doesn't think gold is where the action will be.
That's because he thinks with his pocket and gold is too slow and predictable at the moment.
And the Chinese will not be driving gold encrusted vehicles - unless they pin some olympic medals to the bonnets!!
I think it's wise to have feet in both camps, archer.
Commodities booms can be a little unpredictable and short-lived.
I still believe that gold is very early in its secular bull climb and there is more evidence each week from the US to suggest the dollar will weaken considerably as we move into 2005.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
archer
Member
Username: archer

Post Number: 251
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 01, 2004 - 06:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm in the same camp as you re Gold and especially Silver
I posted the article mainly for his view on base metals
which i agree with
Simply stated -never before in human history have we had
such a large group of people(2 Bil.+ in China and India)
striving to become consumers
---Archer---


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 252
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, August 01, 2004 - 10:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes archer, I don't think there is any disagreement between us on any of the metals - base or precious.
Just wish that MMN would show some flair with the silver price heading north.
My take on China and India is that their present growth spurts that are principally export driven will in the next few years translate into organic - internal - growth.
There is little doubt that both nations aspire to western wealth and technologies.
Just imagine the annual vehicle markets when each family has at least one car!
Only thing is that by then they probably won't be using gasoline coz there won't be enough of it.
So while the present commodities spurt could run cold if the US economy tanks, the longer term should still hold to commodity price levels comparable to or higher than todays.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 257
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, August 03, 2004 - 09:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



NYMEX Oil tonight has stayed over $44/bbl and should move above $45 soon on news from OPEC's president that it can do little to ease supply concerns.



LME stock drawdowns continue with nickel again falling below 10,000tonnes inventory level putting pressure on prices.
Copper seems wedded to around $1.30/lb and lead pushes towards 45cents/lb.
US data suggests reasonable metals demand should continue into the next quarter while Asian demand seems steady - copper supplies probably of greatest concern.
High energy prices are possibly putting a lid on commodity prices busting out of present ranges.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 258
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, August 04, 2004 - 05:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nickel is likely to get a massive fillip with available LME stocks drawing down to just 6162tonnes on cancelled warrants.
Unless WMC comes to the rescue with another warehouse delivery, nickel is likely to climb over $15000/tonne by week's end and continue its climb next week.
Meantime West Texas intermediate Crude has risen marginally again today and sits at $44.20 at time of posting. Industry analysts are not optimistic that prices will fall near term so $45/bbl is looking good, with more upside next week.







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 261
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, August 06, 2004 - 08:48 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



All eyes are on tonight's jobless numbers from the US, and traders have their powder dry in case a few salvos need be served.
At time of writing WTIC (oil) had claimed its 6th high in a fortnight, hitting $44.70/bbl.
Jobless numbers will not impact on oil, and OPEC's stated ability to ramp up production to meet demand got one day's notice before being written of as a non event.
Base metals remain range-bound though at high price levels.
Aluminium, copper and nickel remain tight while lead has dropped off a touch.
Don't pay too much attention to the last few days restocking of some metals as the underlying demand trend remains very strong; for example the weekly average for nickel shows that cancelled warrants account for 25% of present warehouse stock.
With no apparent end to excess demand in the key complexes prices will rise dramatically on any near term USD weakness.
The markets are simply lucky that high oil prices are dampening metal prices for the moment.

 
Other Threads  
Last PosterPostsPagesLast Post
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through October 06, 2005rederob25 06-Oct-05  11:02 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through September 17, 2005rederob25 17-Sep-05  05:14 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through August 11, 2005rederob25 11-Aug-05  08:19 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through July 05, 2005rederob25 05-Jul-05  08:20 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through May 02, 2005archer67 02-May-05  08:50 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through April 02, 2005perler5925 02-Apr-05  10:35 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through March 14, 2005rederob25 14-Mar-05  02:00 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through March 08, 2005hilarius25 08-Mar-05  02:20 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through February 02, 2005rederob25 02-Feb-05  11:48 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through January 04, 2005rederob25 04-Jan-05  05:45 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through November 16, 2004rederob25 16-Nov-04  03:04 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through October 16, 2004hilarius25 16-Oct-04  09:07 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through October 03, 2004vermante25 03-Oct-04  09:26 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through June 25, 2004eblode25 25-Jun-04  12:29 pm

Threads by Last Post Time:

First Previous 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 Next Last

Administration Administration   Log Out Log Out    

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»