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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through October 16, 2004

Chart Forum » Commodities & Futures » Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through October 16, 2004

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rederob
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Post Number: 358
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Monday, October 04, 2004 - 11:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Copper's supposed LME warehouse increase has led to an early selloff tonight.
Singapore & Korea added a net 8,350 tonnes Cu.
Although LME warehouses are back over 100,000 tonnes, slightly over 60,000 tonnes is actually available for delivery - the remainder is spoken for via cancelled warrants.
Hiding behind the data is that traders with spare inventory are delivering into warehouses to take advantage of backwardation (ie get more for selling today than in 3 months time).
This practice exacerbates short supply situations should demand remain strong: It simply means that supplies set aside for "a rainy day" have now been plundered for profit.
God help the trader should that rainy day come soon.
Combined with US GDP being revised upward, China simmering nicely, and European economies doing better than expected, the signs are for copper to run into 2005 at all-time record prices.


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vermante
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Tuesday, October 05, 2004 - 04:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

Any views on the SMY trading halt?


Cheers

Vermante







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rederob
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Tuesday, October 05, 2004 - 07:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



vermante
Have trolled around and found nothing so far on SMY trading halt.
If it's good news it could be Copernicus results - Voisey Bay style nickel sulphides.
If its bad news my wife won't need to know (until it gets better!!).


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rederob
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Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 07:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Base metals and oil put on strong showing overnight - oil breaking through US$52/bbl.
Conventional wisdom tells us that oil and metals are inversely, or offset, correlated. That is, when energy prices rise demand for metals falls away, and vice versa.
You can see the offset relationship in the copper/oil chart below:



Only nickel is bucking the inventory drawdown trend for the moment, so its price increases are propped up by notional demand.
With regard to drawdowns, copper's tight supply stands at 2 week's world consumption: Copper's backwardation increasing nearly 20% overnight to $162.
Mixing metaphors, copper will be drawn from the woodwork into LME warehouses to take advantage of spot prices, but it is very doubtful there will be enough to make a dent in the price charts.
We should see a technical correction on signs of overall market weakness as the metals complex is now heavily overbought (except for tin) - but regard it as a buying opportunity as the tighter the market gets the more exaggerated the each way movements.
And given that we are early days into the annual cycle of high demand for metals, the only way to keep going is up.
Saving the best for last: This week China has taken a back seat to the markets as the country celebrates the 55th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China, which falls on October 1 and finishes on Friday 8th.
So expect next week to be more of the same, and maybe bigger!


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rederob
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Thursday, October 07, 2004 - 11:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nickel has had a blinder for the past month, increasing in price a staggering 33%.
Few nickel stocks have matched it (SMY just caught up in last few days only).



Note: please ignore the RSI scale showing 84.7: That is actually the slow stochastic figure(due to a cut and past to fit in the image). RSI is presently 71.1 and the chart is of actual RSI.
Despite the above, nickel tonight was another 3% higher at time of this post.
Oil presently mid 52's and showing no signs of weakness: $55/bbl seems a touch away and $60 by Xmas is being touted by a few brave analysts.
The real question seems to be what price oil will pull back to, when it has its first major retrace - at present rate it's hard to see $40 being challenged near term.


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ingot54
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Friday, October 08, 2004 - 09:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob

Just as an aside - briefly.

I would like to be able to add captions to my charts within the box, such as you have done above. It would broaden the appeal, as one would be able to annotate exactly where intended, without the wordy explanations above/below the chart. Is this a little technical foible, or only available on the software you use. I will have to ask Colin to add this to the "to do" list, if not available on IC already.

Cheers - please resume normal transmission!

Ivan


"That's Life" does not explain anything!!


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rederob
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Friday, October 08, 2004 - 10:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivan
I use EXCEL mostly so have not mastered the paint program - apparently it's ok for smartypants 8 year olds, but not so easy for the silver foxes.
I cut and paste the above from existing material on very large charts as I did not not want to lose image quality.
Data on nickel is not easy to come by for "free" - most of the commodity sites protect their good info via hefty subscription fees.
I shall borrow judiciously, I hope nobody notices!
In the meantime I shall ask my daughter for some handy hints on PAINT.


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rederob
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Saturday, October 09, 2004 - 07:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The outcome of today's federal election has nothing to do with commodities, but is nevertheless seminal from a trading viewpoint.
The indicators - polls - suggest a close result, and have done for the past month.
If there is a landslide the pollsters will revisit their data with wonderment and try to do better next time.
The reality here is that "undecided" numbers have been huge throughout the month of polling, and have always held the key to todays outcome.
The reality on the commodity front was evident overnight when China returned to the ring after a week's holiday - it clearly is key to the commodity long-term bull run - and pushed up an overbought copper complex a further 3%.
My analogy may be a bit obscure: We know "undecided" voters are the key to today's election outcome, as China is to commodities.
But in the mainstream world we tend to rely on "polls" to tell us what the election outcome should be, and on US economic data to guide our world views on markets.
There is always an underlying truth.
So I'm tipping a landslide victory today.


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greatdane
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Saturday, October 09, 2004 - 07:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



“There is always an underlying truth.
So I'm tipping a landslide victory today.”

That is a true “each way bet” rederob

Which party will enjoy the predicted ‘landslide victory’??

Enjoy your posts – very informative, balanced and always interesting. Keep it up, please.

Have a great day and use your power X wisely.


Regards, GreatDane

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rederob
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Saturday, October 09, 2004 - 07:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks greatdane
Unfortunately the Communist Party has not withstood the test of time in Australia so being somewhat contrarian I might move from red to green today.
I was about to add that all will be revealed tomorrow - but if it is close a "hung parliament" is in the offing.
Don't you love that phrase, a "hung parliament" - a truly visual feast for the disestablishmentarians!
I won't labor politics on this thread as others have more liberal views.
Vote early and vote often!!!!!!


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rederob
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Saturday, October 09, 2004 - 09:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



LME metals prices rose strongly overnight with Chinese markets returning after a weeklong absence: 3-month bid prices with difference from Thursday PM kerb close as follows:

Copper $3,142.00 up 100.00
Lead $975.00 up 16.50
Aluminum $1,879.00 up 31.00
Zinc $1,171.00 up 12.50
Nickel $16,950.00 up 662.50
Tin $9,190.00 up 70.00

On the oil front, NYMEX light sweet crude for November delivery closed out the week at US$53.31.
Please note that WTIC (charts of which are regularly posted) is a different "contract" (see http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/lsco_otc_wtispe.jsp and http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/CL_spec.jsp for definitions).
NYMEX light sweet is the world's most actively traded oil contract, but I can't download the Java charts so use WTIC instead:



With all the commodities into overbought territory there will be a correction soon.
However, we have hit record highs for a number of the complexes and previous resistance will turn into support.
Given that we are early days into the annual production high-cycle, demand for commodities will see downside price dips strongly bought into until Xmas at earliest.


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rederob
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Tuesday, October 12, 2004 - 12:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Overnight basics:
Copper beaten down slightly: Backwardation stretching to a wide $154 cash3's
Nickel liquidated by funds, dropping over 5% and moving from backwardation to contango - today's market almost totally neglected the decline.
Lead falls 1% only and holding onto recent gains quite well.
Aluminium down slightly, but will continue to perform well as backwardation now out $30 cash3's
Zinc belatedly drawn higher on coat tails of others as its fundamentals remain mediocre in a massive bull base metals run.
High oil prices should subdue the metals complexes, yet the theme of ongoing drawdowns will ensure lots of big money will stay in the ring for Al, Cu and Ni, in particular.


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rederob
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Tuesday, October 12, 2004 - 08:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Oil at US$54.23 and on a rising trend as I write.
Precious metals hit by strengthening greenback tonight but not yet "succumbing".
Base metals all down so far tonight, after copper's limit-down sell-off in Shanghai.
There could be more selldowns this week, driven more by high oil and greenback, rather than the physical reality of more drawdowns pressuring demand.
It does seem that large backwardation of copper is prompting more deliveries to LME warehouses - even rumour of another 30,000tonnes in China waiting for the right price.
As noted in earlier posts, draining off these "rainy day" stocks increases price volatility considerably in months ahead as markets will realise there is nothing available to come into the markets from left field.
Unless demand pressures tail-off considerably near term, we are ready for some base metal spikes north that could make oil's rises appear out of gas.


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rederob
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Wednesday, October 13, 2004 - 07:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Weak DOW and strong dollar - not a sound correlation: One will eventually give out.
Overnight oil took a stumble (hardly a fall), so don't be surprised if it dusts off and moves ahead again soon - look for $56-60/bbl as target price before steadying somewhat.
Base metals all retraced slightly upwards from their overnight lows, signalling clearly that more upside is ahead.
With high to overbought rsi's characterising the complex this week seemed a good time to correct.
One of the more influential analysts that forecast this second round had the following to say:
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/base_metals/352865.htm
With little change to the present state of the world economy, commodities remain a good investment.


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rederob
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Wednesday, October 13, 2004 - 09:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Base metals weren't sold down tonight, they were tossed out the factory windows in utter disgust at the low prices!
Most metals down 5% so far except nickel which is nearly 10% down.
Had this occurred 2 months ago the doom and gloom merchants would have called off the party.
Instead, we now know that a retrace upwards will break through 16 year historical highs on the next major upleg.
Why do we know there will be a retrace upwards?
First, demand remains strong and continues to outpace supply in Europe, Asia and the US.
Secondly, Chinese markets have not slowed to the extent earlier forecast and all other markets are relatively strong by way of comparison with previous years.
Finally, the greenback will weaken considerably, making purchases of commodities cheap in other currencies, further strengthening demand.
Timing of this latter point is the biggest unknown - I can't see much weakness in the greenback near term, but it will happen.


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tony_m
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Thursday, October 14, 2004 - 07:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BHP seems to have thrown the cat among the pidgeons with the announcement about copper oversupply in 2nd half 2005. the following was in the Bigcharts (US) market wrapup this morning.

'The sector also was hit with a BHP Billiton (BHP: news, chart, profile) warning that copper supply worldwide could exceed demand in the second half of 2005 as more production comes on line, according to Agence France-Presse.'

Tony_M


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rederob
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Thursday, October 14, 2004 - 07:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tony
I think there is every chance that ramped up production will dent the supply problems for all base metals and lead to oversupply later in 2005 or early 2006.
However, it does not explain the unprecedented percentage selldowns of base metals across the board last night (unprecedented given there was no particular event that triggered the selldown).
Today will see some excellent bargains in our equities focussed on mining.
However there could be a reluctance to dive into a pool that appears to emptying rapidly!
I would be surprised if last night's action was more than a technical correction, just heavily overdone.
Moreover, the correction will increase physical offtakes in coming weeks exacerbating near term supply deficits.
Let's see how tonight pans out for guidance on any break in trend.


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tony_m
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Thursday, October 14, 2004 - 02:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob, it is a bit hard to explain but I think a lot of people have been drawn into metals and mining just because they have been the hot sectors of recent, making the sectors speculative now, and it always seems to overreact in both directions. I learnt a long time ago never to over expose myself to these sectors however good the spoils might seem at any given time, I participate but limit my positions. When it decides to pop it usually does with some gusto and quickly as in this case....Tony_M


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rederob
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Thursday, October 14, 2004 - 05:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tony
My view is that the commodities sector generally has another 6 months of upside before annual cyclical effects cut in and reduce prices again.
Before then we will need to see producers remedy the supply/demand imbalance: And it's here where upside carnage could favour those with big exposures.
Apart from Zinc, most base metals are at or nearing historical stock lows in the various warehouses: Probably need 3 months solid restocking to get the market back on an even keel.
As for last night's smashing of LME commodity prices, there are 2 probable factors:
First is that it is "rumoured" Chinese demand could slow (buy on rumour?).
Secondly, trading volumes last night were very thin (due to what's called "LME Week"). This exaggerated sell stops which broke through several layers of support (some 15% knocked off nickel alone).
I anticipate a good deal of physical buying over coming days while prices are comparatively cheap.
Going forward market tightness should continue to prevail and I expect metal prices to have another tilt at record highs.


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tony_m
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Thursday, October 14, 2004 - 07:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob, instinctively it looks a bit like a severe overreaction and hopefully everyone will take a cold shower and there will be some recovery in the next day or two (talking about stock prices here).

I took a bath in a couple of stocks today, particularly BSL which was caught up in the frenzy. In fact I pyramided BSL a few days ago when it was retracing and looking like a buying opportunity, there you go . However it stayed above stoploss today and I assume (hope) the bargain hunters might move in.

I always seem to get stomped on when I play in resources. Maybe in future as a good citizen, I should signal my intention to enter the resources market on the forum, thus every one else will have time to bail out before I bring the house down.

Tony_M


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rederob
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Thursday, October 14, 2004 - 08:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tony
BSL will continue to perform well in months to come so the purchase won't be in vain if held for the longer term: I only regret not having enough spare $$ to add more.
On the bad judgement front, I put a bid on AWC last week and thought it was too low to come in.
Got home from work and there was the email confirming purchase - such being the pitfalls of not sitting in front of a computer for much of the trading day!
Tonight's action is severe on Lead - down 8% already. Other metals are so so and could go either way before market's close.
The other aspect that contributed to yesterday's slaughter was oil's relentless march north. Typically, high oil prices should have held back the metals, but this was not the case in recent weeks.
Clearly now that even government economists are also pointing to high energy costs dampening industrial output the average Joe has woken up to the fact that all may not be well with the markets.
With oil driving over $54 in recent hours and Anil Kumble giving Aussie batsmen a bowling lesson (currently taken 6/44), I'm hoping that gold will take advantage of slight greenback weakness and deliver at least one outcome to be happy about.


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tony_m
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Friday, October 15, 2004 - 04:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Phwew, as I thought (hoped) it would, BSL did bounce and seems to be consolidating around $8.54, hopefully it is over the hump for the moment. My other resource stocks were CSM and EXL. CSM gave a buy today via TTC and I pyramided into it just before it took off after lunch, a stroke of luck being on hand to pick up the move. EXL did ok too so all is well again within resource world until the next heart attack of course.

Tony_M


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rederob
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Friday, October 15, 2004 - 05:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well picked today, Tony.
I will get in quick with a few observations before LME and US markets kick off.
First, it's not often a market goes from overbought to oversold in a matter of days, but that is where commodities are right now.
If inventories draw down tonight then I expect steady rises in the the metals complex to resume. Certainly, there is no fundamental evidence suggesting that demand is on the wane - and we are still a month away from where these markets typically swing into top gear.
Oil prices rises are not good for the metals, but given that high oil is weakening the greenback, a weaker greenback IS good for metals.
The markets seem full of contradictions at the moment, so trying to make sense of things is not easy.

ingot54 alerted me to some sites with local analyst prognostications. As always, there were some contradictory views, tho an overall theme that commodities are probably now a bit overdone. They could be right.
But they did not hit the nail on the head in terms of their analysis, except for one mob that has recently returned from China.
I have read a few "first hand" reports from analysts returning from China in recent months and none can even see where a slowdown could come from: The exception is aluminium production which China is scaling down because of electricity supply problems.
China is currently adding 3 million more cars to its roads this year, and this rate is expected to increase year on year for the foreseeable future - 20 million forecast to be added in 2020. Plus, international vehicle manufacturers are steadily moving production of selected vehicles to China (eg BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen and GM)due to massively cheaper costs.
Vehicles are just the tip of a massive iceberg: Only a few analysts seem to understand what is happening in China.
And then there is India....
Two nations with nearly half the world's population, and we keep focussing on US oil woes, the DOW and the greenback.
Reality check 101


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rederob
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Saturday, October 16, 2004 - 07:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



DJ LME Review: Copper, Nickel Up On Short Covering, Consumer Buy

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
LONDON (Dow Jones)--London Metal Exchange prices ended higher across the board at the Friday late kerb, with copper and nickel leading the gains on short covering and consumer buying.
Prices rebounded after sharp fund-triggered long liquidation that started Wednesday, dealers said.
"Consumers were back in the market. The dollar weakness after today's poor (U.S.) data also helped," one dealer said.
The dollar fell to a seven-month low after a weaker-than-expected University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index.
Metals producers also took the opportunity Friday to cover shorts after their forward selling at higher pries, another dealer said.
Three-month copper rose to a two-day high of $2,840/ton, 3.6% up from Thursday's late kerb close. Three-month nickel ended the late kerb up 4.4% on
day.
Next resistance for the copper contract is $2,850/ton. Dealers said prices could fall again as investors remain very nervous after the Wednesday price plunge.
Initial support is seen at $2,680/ton.
Three-month nickel's trading range next week is seen around $13,300-$14,200/ton, dealers said.
Aluminum's nearby supply tightness rose sharply. The cash-to-three-month spread was in a backwardation of $72.50/ton, up from $62/ton Thursday. Last
week, the backwardation stood around $20/ton.
All other contracts rebounded in line with copper and aluminum. Three-month lead found good support at $820/ton and closed up 3.2% after the 10%
one-day loss Thursday.

Prices in dollars a metric ton.

Friday PM Kerb Change from
Bid Ask Thursday PM Kerb bid
Copper 2,830.00-2,831.00 up 90.00
Lead 865.00-870.00 up 27.00
Aluminum 1,762.00-1,763.00 up 36.50
Zinc 1,065.00-1,067.00 up 21.00
Nickel 13,900.00-13,930.00 up 590.00
Tin 8,875.00-8,900.00 up 35.00







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hilarius
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Saturday, October 16, 2004 - 09:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rederob

I've mentioned you in despatches :-

https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/8/365021.html



Cheers, Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

 
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Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through September 17, 2005rederob25 17-Sep-05  05:14 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through August 11, 2005rederob25 11-Aug-05  08:19 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through July 05, 2005rederob25 05-Jul-05  08:20 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through May 02, 2005archer67 02-May-05  08:50 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through April 02, 2005perler5925 02-Apr-05  10:35 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through March 14, 2005rederob25 14-Mar-05  02:00 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through March 08, 2005hilarius25 08-Mar-05  02:20 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through February 02, 2005rederob25 02-Feb-05  11:48 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through January 04, 2005rederob25 04-Jan-05  05:45 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through November 16, 2004rederob25 16-Nov-04  03:04 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through October 03, 2004vermante25 03-Oct-04  09:26 am

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