You need to register separately on the Chart Forum
- see Chart Forum Help
Edit Profile Profile Help Help
Forum Rules Forum Rules Advanced Help/Instructions Advanced Help
Search Last 1|3|7 Days Latest Posts Latest Posts
Search Search Forum Tree View Tree View
   
Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through November 16, 2004

Chart Forum » Commodities & Futures » Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through November 16, 2004

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»


Author Message

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54

Post Number: 167
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 16, 2004 - 01:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



From time-to-time I actually have a bit of a look at some of the Junk mail that occasionally filters into the box.

Have a read of this edited snippet. (Identifying bits edited - source available via private email.

"The above chart shows the price of oil adjusted for inflation. You can see that after the Iranian hostage crisis oil surged to the equivalent of $91 per barrel in terms of today's dollars.

While the recent run up in oil has been impressive, we're a long way from $91. But oil will get there — because that's where it should be just to keep pace with the declining purchasing power of the dollar. Put another way, the price of oil can jump another 68%!

Keep in mind that I'm not talking about the shortage of supply — the sabotaged pipelines, civil unrest in oil producing countries, or the lack of new discoveries. Nor am I even factoring in the huge demand for oil. I'm simply saying that purely to adjust to the dollar's loss in value over the last twenty years, oil needs to climb another $37.

How did that happen? Well, since the early 1980s, the price of oil became artificially depressed while investors threw money at stocks. Oil was virtually ignored while speculators bought Worldcom, Pets.com, and eToys. Oil was old industry. We were in a new era.


-------------- ADVERTISEMENT -------------- Critical FREE report identifies three shocking reasons why oil prices are destined to explode much higher than anyone now believes! FIVE oil stocks you shouldn't touch with a 10-foot pole ... SEVEN oil stocks to buy NOW -- for potential profits of up to 288%!
--------------------------------------------

But as the past year has shown us, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Countries all over the world are trying to grow their economies — China, the most obvious example. In order to fuel that growth, massive amounts of energy are needed.

At the same time, investors are finally getting fed up with paper money — in the form of stocks, bonds, and yes, even the greenback. So, they're seeking out tangible assets again — like oil, gold, and a whole slew of natural resources.

My forecast: Oil is going to hit $100 per barrel in 2005, minimum. You'll read more details about it in this month's issue of the ++++ ++++++ Report, which will be published Friday.

And I'm sure you're wondering about gold. Gold, like oil, suffered from the same lack of attention in the 1980's and 1990's. But as you already know, that's changed. Investors are now clamoring for the shiny yellow metal.

And here's an amazing statistic. Historically, an ounce of gold would buy between 11 and 15 barrels of oil. Today, an ounce of gold only buys 8 barrels of oil.

In other words, gold is CHEAP. Vis-à-vis oil, I expect gold to get back to the lower end of that historical relationship, at 11 barrels of oil per ounce of gold. That would mean $600 gold, minimum.

And if oil hits $100 per barrel — you'll see $1,100 gold."


So there it is. No one believed it before - why should they now. But there are plenty of indicators and commentators, which in retrospect, will make us say :"Why didn't I see that coming?"

To add fuel to the speculative fire, I remember a guest on ABC radio (18 months ago) saying that all of the known (and estimated) oil reserves in the world would be exhausted by the year 2027, at current rates of consumption. That was before the China and India economic expansion became widely prominent in calculations.

Even if the wild speculation above were partly feasible, the timeframe and timing might not appeal to most investors - might come as a thief in the night, or like lava down the lazy slopes!

Food for thought?

Ivan


Money isn't everything, but it's right up there with Oxygen

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 391
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 16, 2004 - 08:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivan
Consensus forecasters seldom get it right - it's mostly the guys hitting into left field.
We'll all be wiser at year's end, and I for one doubt the oil market has reached equilibrium and personally believe that $60/bbl will be reached, but not too much more (we surely will get a retrace soon on the over-extended technicals).
As for the ABC guest commentator, he is probably 50 years shy of the mark - 2075 is a better estimate.
The definitive work on oil supply and production was done by M King Hubbert:
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/curves.htm
Depending on who one chooses to believe, global oil production will peak sometime between now and 2025 (best guess presently is around 2010).
Although there is an abundance of oil (for now) not all of it is able to be extracted economically, tho technology (and high oil prices) will lead to abandoned fields being resurrected to eke out every economic drop.
I hold WPL and had recently thought of selling to lock in profits after holding for 18months. Am equivocating as WPL's LNG gas will become an excellent earner in years ahead and can leverage off the present high oil prices.







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 398
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, October 17, 2004 - 11:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



There are some interesting questions about oil that might have even more interesting answers.
Q: Why has no new oil refinery been built in the US since 1976?
A: Domestic US oil production peaked around 1970 and refineries were not operating near capacity then. It is probable they determined that excess capacity would see them through for many years and that offshore refining might compensate for supply imbalances in the distant future (read NOW).
Alternate answer: Refineries are very costly and environmental concerns make US construction a last resort.
Q: US refineries have been at near maximum capacity for the past year. Given that refiner margins are at all time record levels why has none of the oil major announced even an intention to build a new refinery?
A: Refiners have been content to upgrade and adopt new technologies to increase output. It is probable they have run the slide rule over the numbers and determined that the risk reward ratio is not there; principal suppliers being Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Middle East because Europe has cornered market for most (politically) reliable oil producers.
Q: Why did Greenspan’s “Oil” address on Friday (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200410152/default.htm) not touch on any specific measures that the US would implement to overcome extended price increases?
A: First, the Fed has no mandate on oil. Secondly, Greenspan believed his own line, “…technology, given a more supportive environment, is likely to ensure the needed supplies, at least for a very long while”. Finally, apart from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves, their answer is that market forces will arrive at a longer term solution.
Because Greenspan spoke at the end of a trading week, a detailed dissection of his address and its market impact has been muted. Bulls and bears will interpret his comments accordingly.

These are just a few of my questions and answers (or views).
They prompt deeper questions and I have learned from researching the oil market that greater complexities abound. For example, the multitude of “gasoline” standards in the US means that refineries typically can only accommodate demand from specific States, rather than the whole nation: This alone creates internal imbalances which exacerbates price spikes.

One of the most telling recent indicators of near term direction is the spread between sweet (low sulfur) and sour oil prices which has almost doubled in the past 2 months. Until the spread reverses trend, oil is most likely to push higher or, at worst, consolidate in price over US$50/bbl.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius

Post Number: 388
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, October 18, 2004 - 07:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings Father Rederob

Where does that leave CTX as a refiner in our area?

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 400
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, October 18, 2004 - 08:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Br Hilarius
This cannot be simply answered, so visit here:
http://www.caltex.com.au/media_files/PressItem.576.801.pdf

The bottom line is that Oz refineries maintain a different focus to Asian refineries (our "competition"). Plus, Asian refineries no longer have the "surplus" that could be shipped off to Oz as local demand (China/Indonesia) has absorbed it.
Caltex seems destined for a stellar performance this year, but is at risk should there be a major collapse in POO (Price of OIL!!) - low likelihood near term.

By the way, industry analyst consensus this week is for higher POO.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius

Post Number: 390
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, October 18, 2004 - 08:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thank you Father Rederob

Please forgive me, for I have sinned

I have not bought CTX when I ought to have done, and I have considered buying it "too late" when I ought not to have done

Reading your words encourages me to have a naughty flutter even at this late stage

Please pray that I will not end up in a falling POO

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 401
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, October 18, 2004 - 09:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Br Hilarius
I have dispatched Mother Superior to guide your penance!
I sold out of CTX at handsome profit, but so early as to have missed out on another $5/share increase.
Therefore am contrite with sin of remission for not repurchasing on a retrace - but what retrace I ask?
If you look towards the heavens you may see....


...CTX's chartline taking pride of place in Our Lord's Pantheon of High Performing Equities.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
tony_m
Member
Username: tony_m

Post Number: 166
Registered: 01-2003

Rating: 
Votes: 1


Monday, October 18, 2004 - 11:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looking at CTX fundamentals it is hard to understand why it has stalled recently. It looks to me like market sentiment has been dampened by CTX having performed so well for so long therefore 'it must have run out of puff'??

CTX came off a really low base before the long run up but it is still cheap. PE is 7.02 v sector 19.2. Forecast earnings growth for Dec 04 report is 47.49% but will probably be a lot higher because of the tie up with WOW and higher crude prices giving opportunity for better margins. The PEG is a very low 0.04 so it suggests CTX could easily double and not be overvalued even then.

I dont know if there are any lurking issues but it would seem that market sentiment is the problem. Hopefully there will be some realisation that it is still a good buy and it will take off again.
Tony_M


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius

Post Number: 391
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, October 18, 2004 - 12:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tony

The friars are with you ... frying furiously

Buy your oil now before it runs out

Hilarius (taking the view of CTX you suggest)


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 409
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 21, 2004 - 07:12 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As can be seen, POO holding up strongly despite technicals suggesting an overdue retrace. Fundamentals presently driven by low US heating oil inventories and likelihood that nation will go into winter with prospect of short supply.
Expect heating oil tightness to cap POO downside over coming months.
POO to $60/bbl is looking more probable each week.




Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ken
Member
Username: ken

Post Number: 38
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 21, 2004 - 08:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Please see huge Natural Gas price increase overnight in ASX long term / PSA thread.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?8/269064#POST52383


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 411
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 21, 2004 - 09:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Ken
News reports from all over the place are pointing to more and more companies making formal decisions to increase the prices of their goods and services as soon as practicable - to accommodate energy cost increases and higher prices of raw materials.
Ultimately the price hikes will crimp spending and energy costs etc will deflate.
However, we are not looking at that scenario for months, more likely nearer to mid-2005.
My view is that oil, commodities and precious metals have a great 6-month window of opportunity to outperform.
Thereafter, chicken entrail tossing and tea leaf reading may offer clues if TA cannot help.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 413
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, October 22, 2004 - 08:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Very little change overall to base metals or oil prices overnight.
Consolidation is important in the light of greenback weakness.
Warehouse stock drawdowns continue in most complexes except aluminium, which is subject to some Chinese producer dishoarding (to LME warehouses) due to tax dodges that close at year's end.
Copper's tightness gave it a slight edge over other metals: Its weekly LME ratio of cancelled warrants to inventory of over 20% suggests there is minimal downside risk near term.
A Bloomberg report that China's growth rate may slow has weighed on the markets this week. The key word was "MAY": How much slower in percentage terms would make an impact, anyway?
I think it's mischievous to not explain that slowing from around 9% annual growth to 7% or even slightly lower still implies that China's demand for key commodities cannot be met in the medium term. Should Chinese growth fall below 5% then market tightness will ease, but prices should remain strong. Start to worry when Chinese growth stalls, but only after examining India's books - that's the next chapter of this commodity bull market story.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
archer
Member
Username: archer

Post Number: 331
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, October 22, 2004 - 09:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes forget the "China slowing down crap"
Just a ploy to shake out weak hands
------------------
These numbers are startling. If this is slowing, geez....

BEIJING, Oct 15 (Reuters) - China's economic growth is expected to have slowed in the third quarter, but not so much that Beijing will relax credit and investment curbs aimed at preventing overheating.

Inflation is likely to mark time near seven-year highs, but economists say an acceleration could bolster the case of those who think the government needs to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years.

GDP

Year-on-year economic growth is expected to have slowed for the third quarter in a row, to 9.0 percent, thanks to measures such as bans on some new investments in industries like steel and property and higher bank reserve requirements.

"I would expect a gradual moderation of growth in the real economy," said Tai Hui, an economist with Standard Chartered in Hong Kong.

"I think that will cool expectations of higher interest rates from the central bank. I think the central bank is still struggling with the possible negative impact in the near term," Hui said.

The tone for the GDP report was set on Thursday when modest growth in money supply and imports for September suggested the cooling measures were working their way through the economy.

Beijing began tightening credit and cracking down on heated investment in the middle of last year, fearing that breakneck industrial expansion could quickly outpace demand and push the world's seventh-biggest economy to the brink of sharp downturn.

"All the figures we watch, including money, investment, physical activity and imports now point to deceleration," said UBS chief Asia economist Jonathan Anderson.

"So far there's no sign of a sharp fall in activity and in our view the 'hard landing' scenarios do not hold water," said Anderson, who expects real GDP growth of 9.9 percent in 2004.

-------------------------
China set to buy up Canada's resources

EXCLUSIVE: Noranda takeover is just a start, Foreign Minister tells GEOFFREY YORK in Beijing



By GEOFFREY YORK


UPDATED AT 7:35 PM EDT Thursday, Oct 21, 2004





Advertisement




China's Communist rulers have a blunt message for anyone who frets about the planned Chinese takeover of Canada's biggest mining company: Get ready for more to come.

In an exclusive interview with The Globe and Mail in Beijing this week, Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing made it plain that the controversial $7-billion takeover of Noranda Inc. is just a small element in a much more ambitious strategy of investment in Canada's resources sector to feed China's voracious appetite for raw materials.

"Given our rapid economic growth, we're facing an acute shortage of natural resources," the Foreign Minister told The Globe.

"No matter how plentiful our natural resources, when you divide them by our population of 1.3 billion, the figure will be very small," he said.

"The Chinese government is encouraging Chinese enterprises to make investments in Canada, particularly in the field of resources exploitation."

It is the first public comment on the Noranda issue by a senior Chinese leader since the controversy over the planned takeover erupted last month.

Though the minister did not identify any specific targets for future Chinese buyers, it is known that two of China's biggest state-controlled oil companies are considering major investments in Alberta's oil sands. In other potential billion-dollar deals, Chinese oil and mining companies are looking at lucrative assets held by Canadian companies in Ecuador and Mongolia.


http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPPrint/LAC/20041021/CHINA21/ National/


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 434
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, October 29, 2004 - 10:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Despite a lot of talk around commodities, and its "bubble" bursting, prices have steadied over the fortnight.
Stock drawdowns also continue across the complexes and across Europe, Asia and the US.
Weaker oil prices should prop base metal prices, while tight supply will cap downside should oil rise again.
Nickel has been interesting to watch over the fortnight, showing consistent, tho small, stock drawdowns. If you go to WMC's site you will see they have no surplus nickel, and this may be common to other producers - certainly the percentage of cancelled LME warrants suggests restocking should have occurred over the period.
Tonight's warehouse data shows:

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 713,325 -1475
Copper 78,850 -900
Nickel 14,142 -54
Lead 49,600 -100
Zinc 705,675 -2625

New York Futures Market Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tons in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 71,808 -1737
Copper 45,495 -225

On the oil front, there seems a reluctance to dump futures in the belief inventories are at safe levels.
Rather, typical profit taking has occurred and for the time being support remains unchallenged at US$50/bbl.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 435
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 30, 2004 - 08:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Not surprising to see another surge in base metals overnight: Bloomberg reports as follows:
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices in New York surged 6.7 percent, the most in five years, as falling inventory in Asia and the U.S. renewed concern that growing demand in China, the world's biggest buyer of the metal, will limit supplies.
Global stockpiles monitored by the London Metal Exchange fell to a 14-year low, including declines at warehouses in Singapore and New Orleans. Phelps Dodge Corp., the largest U.S. producer, said China's copper use probably will increase 12 percent to 15 percent this year. Prices fell 2.7 percent yesterday after China raised interest rates to slow inflation.
``A more than short-term view supports that China's demand for resources will stay strong,'' said Hans Kunnen, who helps manage the equivalent of $14.4 billion at Colonial First State Investments in Sydney.
Copper futures for December delivery rose 8.4 cents to $1.3375 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest percentage increase since June 30, 1999. Prices, which have gained 46 percent in the past year, climbed 2.5 percent this week.

Futures prices (for 3 months) in US dollars a metric ton:

Friday PM Kerb Change from
Bid Ask Thursday PM Kerb bid
Copper 2,882.00-2,883.00 up 132.50
Lead 878.00-879.00 up 28.50.00
Aluminum 1,817.00-1,818.00 up 53.50
Zinc 1,062.00-1,063.00 up 37.50
Nickel 13,840.00-13,850.00 up 545.00
Tin 9,000.00-9,025.00 dn 17.50

As you can see, only tin fell overnight.
Look forward on Monday to Oz mining companies getting another healthy boost in prices.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
greatdane
Member
Username: greatdane

Post Number: 148
Registered: 12-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, November 03, 2004 - 06:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Copper Rises in London as Inventories Shrink, Demand Increases

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Copper prices rose in London as inventories plunged amid increasing demand from users, including manufacturers of power cables and water pipes.

Stockpiles monitored by exchanges in London, New York and Shanghai have fallen 82 percent this year to 147,979 metric tons, or about three days' demand, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Consumption will expand 7.7 percent this year and 5.7 percent in 2005, Societe Generale estimates.

``There is more room on the upside in base metal prices,'' Ingrid Sternby, an analyst at Barclays Capital in London, said in an e-mailed report. ``Inventories continue to draw while physical consumer business is proving a strong floor to prices.''

Copper for delivery in three months rose $17, or 0.6 percent, to $2,848 a ton on the London Metal Exchange at 9:03 a.m. Prices fell 1.8 percent yesterday after jumping 4.7 percent on Oct. 29, the biggest gain in more than five years.

Consumers are using stockpiled copper to make up for insufficient production from mines and scrap. Phelps Dodge Corp., the world's second-largest copper producer, said on Oct. 28 that demand this year will exceed output by 750,000 tons.

China, the world's largest copper buyer, used 17 percent more in the first half as its economy grew 9.7 percent. The central bank on Oct. 28 increased benchmark interest rates for the first time in nine years to cool the economy.

Rio Tinto Group, the world's third-largest mining company, said Oct. 29 that China's demand will continue expanding. China Minmetals Co., a state-owned metals trader and producer, forecasts China's copper consumption will rise as much as 14 percent next year to 4 million tons.

Zinc rose $5 to $1,044 a ton and lead added $6 to $879. Other LME metals fell. Aluminum slipped $1 to $1,805, nickel dropped $50 to $13,500 and tin lost $45 to $9,075.

Last Updated: November 2, 2004 04:23 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=awl8IOM_gQvM&refer=latin_ame rica


Regards, GreatDane

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 442
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, November 03, 2004 - 07:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



greatdane
"Consumers are using stockpiled copper to make up for insufficient production from mines and scrap" is the key to copper's bull trend.
At some point these consumers MUST buy the physical metal and that's when the squeeze on copper comes with a straightjacket on the markets.
There are going to be some exceptionally strong upward movements in prices, with a floor that is constantly rising.
Producers need to lock in supplies for annual production cycles over coming months, so competition will get more fierce.
Irrespective of who occupies the Oval Office, base metals - especially copper, nickel and aluminium - will continue to do well into early 2005.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 446
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 04, 2004 - 09:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bush is good for metals!
Smart players are voting with their pockets and opting out of US dollars, sending the greenback to 9 month lows.
This will make commodities "cheaper" for the funds.
So long positions liquidated the other week shall be rebuilt.
Fundamentals remains strongly bullish with stock drawdowns continuing and the China syndrome failing to melt down.
Latest warehouse data:
London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tonnes in Storage and Change from
previous day
Aluminum 719,425 -400
Copper 75,750 -650
Nickel 14,628 +168
Lead 48,475 -175
Zinc 699,050 -1075
New York Futures Market Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tons in Storage and Change from
previous day
Aluminum 65,631 -704
Copper 44,594 -686

Already tonight most base metals are up over 1% before US markets open - could be some good follow through now that US elections are behind us.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 447
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, November 04, 2004 - 10:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Br hilarius
CTX in near term poo with POO falling lately.
I note that POO has generally held up ok and we needed a little blow off.
Many of the experts are tipping POO to run over $60 before Xmas despite present relapse.
I don't know what sort of divs CTX is offering, so if it's reflective of present price, CTX remains a "hold".
I am curious about margins tho.
When oil was nearing $40/bbl petrol prices in Brizzie jumped to a dollar a litre.
The other day I filled up at a CTX station at 91cents/litre (less 4cent voucher discount) and oil was over $50/bbl.
So buy my reckoning petrol will be around 80cents a litre when it hits $60/bbl - maybe just wishful thinking and some dubious maths.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 455
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, November 07, 2004 - 01:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Trolling around one finds some useful stuff.
From this site there is an article with great technical analysis on metals:
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/content/reports/jpmorgan/metalsoiltechstrategist.pdf
They have this to say about copper:
Copper
We believe the corrective rally from 2732 has the potential to extend for the next few sessions, especially with the daily momentum recovering from the oversold level. However, corrective is the key word here has we expect that move to test but subsequently top within the 2939/2980 area, which marks the 50%-62% retracement from the October high.
The completion of the short-term correction would revert the attention back to the 2732/2641 support zone which held the October collapse, with a breakdown through there opening a slip back to the summer lows around 2504.
Our longer term outlook remains bullish as we believe the
market is actually in a multi month 4th wave corrective range between 2450 and 3150 before setting new highs to 3500/ 3600 in 2005.
Trade Strategy - Neutral for now

JP Morgan's analysis was 2 days before euro's record high, which makes commodities cheaper. Their analysis is also only based on technicals. Looking solely at supply the chart below is compelling:




Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54

Post Number: 196
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, November 07, 2004 - 02:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

If all available scrap is being sought out, in an effort to avoid "cleanskin" warehouse stock buying, this would explain the meteoric rise of Simsmetal group since June.

You can see the benefit of the rainbow 3-D chart now, when the 15 and 30 week MA's are highlighted (in black).

These MA's did not cross, indicating the primary uptrend is intact, and representing a great entry during the June '04 retracement.

What price will SMS be in January - one could guess! Once the scrap is sucked out of the equation, supply-and-demand will dictate price.

By the way, for short-term trades, the appropriate MA's could be blacked out, and the chart looked at from a 3 month snapshot, from the "Time Period"" drop-down menu.

sms

Good one to follow.


When money speaks, the truth keeps silent. Russian Proverb

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 456
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, November 07, 2004 - 09:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ingot
SMS has much more going for it than I thought, and will do well in future years despite its present strong orientation to ferrous metal sales.
However, buyers of SMS scrap aren't so much avoiding "cleanskin" stocks as buying metal more cheaply FULL STOP.
Given that SMS made record profits in the last quarter, and metals prices will probably be stronger on average this quarter, I can't see SMS's share price going backwards going forward.
I also like SMS's dividend policy and dividends to date - certainly reflects a price over $16 - and climbing.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 459
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, November 09, 2004 - 06:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With an oil tanker blocking the Suez for another day or two, oil prices will not take a hit for the time being.
The chart below suggests we could be due for consolidation within a narrow range over the next week before a probable resumption of trend.
All that is needed for another jump in prices is an early snap freeze in the northern hemisphere (US will do the trick).
I note that some commentators are finding it hard to justify the oil price above $40, but given these were the same folk spruiking mid 25s a year ago, it's better to be guided by chart action for now.



By the way, note that the present blow-off is not as severe as August's. It's indicative of long position holders hanging on for the ride.







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 469
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, November 16, 2004 - 03:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This afternoon has seen unusually high selldowns of base metals on rumour that Chinese government sales are bolstering their local market.
While there may be some short term alarm, the implication is overwhelmingly bullish for metals prices as it confirms that short supply is getting worrisome.
Should the rumour be true, we may be able to glean the extent of government reserves and capacity to maintain this crutch to a staggering economy!
When I last checked, China was still "communist" - so sharing the goods is good for all, especially when they need more to share later on.

 
Other Threads  
Last PosterPostsPagesLast Post
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through May 23, 2006smallworld25 23-May-06  06:22 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through May 19, 2006captain_chaza29 19-May-06  03:44 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through November 09, 2005thommo7828 09-Nov-05  04:11 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through October 06, 2005rederob25 06-Oct-05  11:02 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through September 17, 2005rederob25 17-Sep-05  05:14 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through August 11, 2005rederob25 11-Aug-05  08:19 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through July 05, 2005rederob25 05-Jul-05  08:20 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through May 02, 2005archer67 02-May-05  08:50 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through April 02, 2005perler5925 02-Apr-05  10:35 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through March 14, 2005rederob25 14-Mar-05  02:00 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through March 08, 2005hilarius25 08-Mar-05  02:20 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through February 02, 2005rederob25 02-Feb-05  11:48 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through January 04, 2005rederob25 04-Jan-05  05:45 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through October 16, 2004hilarius25 16-Oct-04  09:07 am

Threads by Last Post Time:

First Previous 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 Next Last

Administration Administration   Log Out Log Out    

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»