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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through March 08, 2005

Chart Forum » Commodities & Futures » Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through March 08, 2005

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perler59
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Post Number: 525
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Saturday, February 05, 2005 - 11:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As I suspected, oil reversed and light crude is now testing minor support at $46. What next?
Oil_Feb_05


I can NOT control the markets, so I MUST control myself.

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fox_terrier
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 10:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,

Attended a great wedding on Saturday night and got talking to a BHP geologist.

He is a base metals man (not gold savvy)and he made the same comment i have seen mentioned on this forum before : "we are running out of metals".

The purpose of this post is to ask you guys if any of you have any knowledge of Robert Champion de Crespigny's activities at present.

My geologist friend heard he is sniffing around some copper interest in the Mount Isa area.

Any info appreciated.

Cheers
FT







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vermante
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 10:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



fox_terrier

Source - Comsec

Company Details
Buka Minerals Limited
Trading Status: Trading
Former Names:
ACN:000 741 373
Chairman:Robert Champion de Crespigny
MD:John Richards


Level 45, 2 Park St
Sydney,NSW 2000


Tel:-(02) 9264 5515
Fax:--
http://www.buka.com.au

Cheers

Vermante


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fox_terrier
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 11:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Vermante,

Thank you for the prompt response.

How did you find out this info?

Cheers
FT


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vermante
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Monday, February 07, 2005 - 11:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Fox-terrier

Through reading company announcements , reports etc. The name just happened to stick in my memory.

Cheers

Vermante


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rederob
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Thursday, February 10, 2005 - 07:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



perler
On oil you asked, "what next"?
Is seems OPEC is not unhappy with oil over US$40/bbl and are reluctant to change quotas up or down.
So I think a rangebound figure of $43-46 could prevail for a while.
On base metals:
Chinese new year has thinned the markets but not subdued them.
A weaker greenback is pushing metals higher tonight and I expect this will continue for a few weeks to come - I believe the pendulum has swung back in favour of the euro and the trend to kick in.
Nickel inventories will take a big hit in the next few days as cancelled warrants presently account for 30% of warehouse stock - don't be surprised if nickel prices react as sharply.
Copper backwardation continues to attract metal on warrant into LME warehouses, so tightness will ease somewhat.
On the other hand, in near months, a number of producers in Japan , Korea and China are going into maintenance mode for a month or more: So don't expect the demand imbalance to change for a good while yet.
Note also that COMEX warehouses continue drawdowns.
We won't have any news from Shanghai till Friday week.
Meanwhile Zinifex is nearing my preferred buy-in price - another 40cents off would help, thanks.


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rederob
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Tuesday, February 15, 2005 - 08:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BHP post their half year result and it's tipped to break all records.
This comes as base metals and oil continue to climb into 2005 - with the greenback losing some ground in parallel.
I did buy BHP - at $16.94 - so will hope the planets are aligned.
By the way, nickel's cancelled LME warrants are still running at 30% of deliverables, so offtake will rule the price and a foray to $17000 is not beyond the imagination.


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hilarius
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Tuesday, February 15, 2005 - 08:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob

I watch BLT in London and it has been climbing strongly since Thursday ... but so did RIO before the announcement and then it dropped like a stone

Apparently the know alls fully price the stock to include the announcement and then sell like there's no tomorrow

As a fellow holder of BHP I hope I am wrong

And as Nightstalker says of the less nimble ... Buy, Hold and Pray!

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Tuesday, February 15, 2005 - 08:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Bro Hilarius
The difference may be that BHP is iconic, so funds cannot hold back the hoi polloi
Then again, maybe the great unwashed want to offload on a high
Now I am confused
Thanks for the tip Nightstalker
Looks like the pews will be chockers


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rederob
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Wednesday, February 16, 2005 - 07:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



....from Dow Jones newswire last night:
While producer selling was noted at the highs, brokers said the strong close bodes well for further gains to the October high of $3,177/ton in the days ahead.
But this area has provided formidable resistance since then and only a relatively swift break will negate a sharp corrective fall.
Following copper's positive lead was aluminum which also managed to attract the support of the funds and climb to a six-week high at $1,875/ton.
Aluminum's biggest challenge in the short term is to break through this resistance area, a move which would bring the December high at $1,973.50/ton into focus.
Nickel got off to a slow start but found support at $15,100/ton, the previous session's low, during the pre- arket.

Thus, BHP gets a kick start to its 6monthly report due to near-term record highs, and with oil still over $47/bbl.
Can BHP surprise with a takeover counterbid on WMC to boot?
.....all will be revealed......


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rederob
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Friday, February 18, 2005 - 10:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Somehow copper's 16year high escaped market attention in Oz today, and nickel's resilience has also passed without notice.
Should there be further USD weakness tonight, the base metals will climb further - with nickel my short term favourite.
At the equity level, SMY is one stock that could move quite sharply higher next week as its production of both metals is above forecasts, and its baseline metals prices were significantly lower than they are now receiving(downside of sorts due to Tramways cost blowout - tho that project is still cash positive).
I think those that keep wanting to put a lid on China's influence fail to understand the nature of what is happening to the country (I have never been there, but read as many reports from various web sites as I can).
First, infrastructure projects are not 12months long (try 4-5 years as a guide), and they cannot possibly all start at once. So suggesting all would be over by end 2004 was fanciful.
Secondly, it's not just infrastructure driving metals demand. China is facing a drift of about 20 million (probably the conservative guesstimate) people a year into its city precincts, plus, commercial building and factory construction is fast paced.
Thirdly, individual wealth is increasing, thereby spurring internal demand for household goods that we take for granted, plus car ownership. (It's a bit analagous to everyone on the Eastern seaboard of Australia moving to live in Western Australia and wanting to be housed, serviced etc, year after year after year - mind boggling stuff).
Key to China's ongoing prosperity will be energy - not just oil, gas, coal or uranium but the means to channel it to meet demand - copper and/or aluminium wiring!!!
It is estimated that over 50% of China's copper demand is fed into the electricity grid. Later on it will be taken up in house wiring (for example, an American home consumes about 400lbs of copper - tho we might reasonably anticipate a lot less would be in the average Chinese home).
There will be a point where supply is cranked up (due to such high prices) to satisfy demand, and quell the bull market.
I don't think hat will be any time soon.


post script: Shanghai inventories climbed about 30% respectively for copper and aluminium during Chinese New year, but prices are unmove by the restocking


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rederob
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Saturday, February 19, 2005 - 08:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






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vermante
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Saturday, February 19, 2005 - 10:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





Worth considering in the current Copper Market.

Source- TYC web site

Tethyan Copper Company Limited is a dynamic new investment opportunity, offering a remarkable asset base, a proven management team, an Alliance with one of the world's largest mining companies, and exposure to the phenomenal growth of the Asian economies.

TCC controls the Reko Diq Project in Pakistan, a giant porphyry copper and gold complex with over 4.8 million tonnes of contained copper metal and 9 million ounces of contained gold already delineated in JORC standard Inferred and Indicated Resources. A further 14 mineralised porphyry bodies are known to exist, with the potential to place the Reko Diq Project among the largest undeveloped copper resources on the globe.

TCC's goal is the staged development of a world-class copper-gold mine at Reko Diq & a springboard to its larger ambition & to be a major copper producer, supplying the growing economies of Asia with the one irreplaceable metal of the technological age, as Asia drives world economic growth through the twenty first century.

Note- I hold TYC

Cheers

VERMANTE


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rederob
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Saturday, February 19, 2005 - 12:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



vermante
TYC certainly looks good on TA and fundamentals.
Where has it been hiding?
Not popping into media attention like the mining majors and commodity sweethearts - eg uranium/zinc.
Am adding to watch list and seeing if enough pennies are in the piggy bank for a wee bet.


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vermante
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Saturday, February 19, 2005 - 12:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

I dont want to ramp this stock , but do your home work , it has a link with BHP. Raises some interesting possibilities.

Cheers

Vermante

(Message edited by vermante on February 19, 2005)


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rederob
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 06:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



if you settle for "demand" as the simple definition for "fundamentals" then last night fund demand simply sent metals mental
looks like a cracker of a day ahead for the major miners
base and precious metal producers will form a ring with oilers and jig to their merriment
can bearly wait


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rederob
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Wednesday, February 23, 2005 - 09:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Below is the present state of play at LME and COMEXwarehouses:
London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 612,375 -2425
Copper 53,125 -2000
Nickel 10,410 -396
Lead 33,850 -250
Zinc 606,900 -475

New York Futures Market Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tons in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 91,164 +11
Copper 46,727 0

Going back a year, base metals had a fantastic run in the 12 months to February 2004 before stabilising for a month or two and later faltering from April 2004.
The period was characterised by massive warehouse stock rundowns in a number of complexes (copper in particular) and cycle highs for a number of commodities (nickel in particular).
China's "cooling" of the economy kicked in after April and a semblance of rationality returned to the market.
Over the past 10 months the most prominent theme was that of "consolidation". Through the period there were drawdowns and restocking across the complexes, with drawdowns gaining the upper hand. There was also a constancy to product price increases, allowing base metals to steadily climb and not fall back so far on retraces. And finally there was exhaustion of excess scrap.
So where are we now?

Several of the complexes are reclaiming cycle highs: In the case of copper a quadruple top breakout has just occurred and 16year highs may soon be surpassed.
Stock drawdowns, albeit less strong than leading up to last February, are continuing: In the case of tin there is presently about 3,000tonnes available and the pace of declines has quickened in recent weeks - a more serious predicament than of a year ago.
We see zinc going through the roof despite massive warehouse levels - zinc is the only base metal not currently in backwardation.
China has cooled somewhat, but growth remains robust and it will remain the principal driver of increasing prices.
Should China sneeze, base metals would catch a cold. But overall prices would stay high until inventories recovered - perhaps 6 months or more required.

For the near term I anticipate a downward retrace before a further rally beyond current highs. I also anticipate historical resistance points becoming support for most base metals in the remainder of 2005.
I do not expect high oil prices will impact markedly on commodities as stock shortages are likely to be key price drivers. The greenback will, however, continue to exaggerate intermediate movements, but not determine trend direction.


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rederob
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Thursday, February 24, 2005 - 07:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It seems today's market marked down last night's commodity price rises despite being at cyclical record highs.
One would anticipate a correction on the way after such a good run in recent weeks. However, there may be a bit more petrol in the tank as US equities are not looking that flash and the money could do better in commodities irrespective of current highs.
I think the turning point is likely to be when the greenback gets another filip from Mr Magooo via Fed interest rates being hiked again.
In the meantime stronger base-prices are being established as support and after the inevitable correction, most base metals will be launching themselves into bluesky charts.
This will be more scarey for those commodities nearing empty exchange warehouses, viz copper, nickel, tin and lead.
Look for declining open interest as smart players exit positions and seek the fence for safety. Which in turn leaves fewer player driving prices; a recipe for sharp movements both ways.
If you don't want to jump on commodity stock, try recyclers like Simsmetal (SMS). The likes of SMS will benefit significantly from continually being able to sell scrap at higher margins. (Take their present stainless steel scrap as an example - consumers simply cannot get enough of it.)


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rederob
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Saturday, February 26, 2005 - 02:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Base metals firmed overnight as continued exchange drawdowns maintained fund interest near term.
Nickel and tin have done well and should continue to do so as industrial demand appears to be eroding their stock levels more rapidly than the other complexes.
Shanghai exchange has had a moderate build again in copper and ali, but nothing to suggest demand has faltered.
Below is the monthly oil chart. Recent cold spells in northern hemisphere have pushed-up prices and inventories are relatively low. With refining capacity at maximum in the US, any minor calamity could spike oil sharply higher.
OPEC is also coy on output, suggesting $40/bbl is the new baseline price and a $10 range above is acceptable - there is certainly no evidence to show that high oil prices have dampened demand (although inflationary pressures are in place):



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rederob
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Tuesday, March 01, 2005 - 09:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Looking for a change in the demand balance, but not finding it so far this week.
Even the premium on spot copper (about 5% higher than the 3month futures) is not preventing exchange drawdowns.
Nickel retains its star ranking on the inventory stakes with cancelled warrants presently accounting for 23% of LME warehouse stock, followed by tin with an 18% figure.
Given that warehouse levels for these commodities are down to a few days global use, it won't take much for their prices to go ballistic. And even if nothing else happens, world demand is likely to propel their prices to all time record highs within 3 months. I would usually say that scrap could come to the rescue, but I think any reasonable scrap quantities entered the market a year ago when backwardation put almost a 10% premium on spot prices.
Zinc, lead and ali are staying high - ali at 10 year highs.
COMEX warehouses for copper suggest no net changes are occurring day after day after day. I have not learned why this is so, but it's very peculiar given what is happening with commodities generally.
I set a $20 price on BHP before selling, thinking it would be a longer term hold - may have to settle for $25 if it's really going to be longer term.


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rederob
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Friday, March 04, 2005 - 10:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With a raft of US economic data out in a few hours, posting possibilities is futile.
Shall simply reiterate that exchange inventories continue to decline for the base metal complex at LME and Shanghai, and for copper at COMEX warehouses.
And this is important as backwardation has been at good levels for some time now (except for zinc in contango) and should have attracted substantial restocking by now.
Furthermore, there is no evidence of a "balanced" market, which is essential for funds to line up on the short side rather than fence sit for now.
Caution should be exercised simply because of the "warnings" over possible Asian slowdown (read China).
I have little faith in these warnings - mere opportunities for a good storyline.
My view is that individual wealth in Asian economies will continue to grow and supplement any shortfall from export-driven demand in the medium term: Somewhat analagous to the post-war Japanese growth story, but across several countries and a population base in billions rather than 100million.


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rederob
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Saturday, March 05, 2005 - 02:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With the DOW cracking a 4-year high it's hard to conceive that nearly every major commodity is also near or at long-term cyclical highs and inflation is in check!
What is absolutely certain is that base metals and oil will continue near/medium term to maintain upwards momentum.
RSI on base metals is not yet toppy and the past week showed pleasant price consolidation.
Incongruence via greenback strength and precious metals will give rise to only one winner: On trend it's precious metals.
So expect a weaker dollar over next quarter to prop-up and propel metals/oil to historic highs.
The $66,000 question is if metal prices will fall away markedly in the second half: This is clearly factored into many equities which are running low PEs on an historical basis, despite rising share market prices.
My take is that metals/oil will continue to rack up gains for the full year.
Year on year production data for major producers show output levels are at capacity, and additional capacity will come on line into 2006 and beyond.
In the interim, expect a continuous stream of commodity price increases being thrust on consumers. Winding these prices lower when commodities finally are in oversupply will not happen overnight.
Accordingly, the miners appear to have a clear 2-year run of very strong prices, with massive profits being realised.
The RIOs and BHPs are cash cows of the highest order.


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rederob
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Tuesday, March 08, 2005 - 07:15 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The nickel story is getting stronger this week as backwardation trips well over $200 and inventory declines continue.
Most telling is "live warrants" at 6246 tonnes (this is the lowest number I can recall) and cancelled warrants blowing out to 30% of warehouse deliverables.
Maintenance shutdowns in the first half will reduce available nickel deliveries and put a massive squeeze on this commodities price.
While there is no doubt that new mines such as Voisey Bay will significantly add to nickel stocks in 2006, the intervening period should see all time record prices achieved.
I would not be surprised if $17,000/tonne become the average nickel price for this year, even though we are still over $1000/tonne from it.


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archer
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Tuesday, March 08, 2005 - 01:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Opec warns $80 Oil is coming - M. Weiss
Inflation anyone?????
----------------------
For the first time ever, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) acting Secretary-General Adnan Shihab-Eldin admitted what has been obvious to me all along -- namely that ...
The price of a barrel of oil could “rise to $80 in the coming two years.”

Two points: First, Shihab-Eldin’s statement is an official acknowledgement by OPEC that oil is heading much higher. That’s huge.

Second, I believe OPEC is still being conservative. Based on all the information available to me that I’ve analyzed, including the recent rate of ascent in oil prices, I believe that the price of oil could hit $80 sooner than anyone realizes -- possibly within as little as 12 months.

This means it’s now a great time for you to start turbo-charging your profit potential in the energy markets by investing in high-powered oil and gas shares that could leverage your profits!

That’s why I am writing to you today. As a 27-year veteran trader, I love markets like we have now in oil and energy ... where the “trend is your friend” -- and virtually every force on the planet is lining up on your side to help you make potentially large wads of money.

Naturally, as in any investing, profits are never guaranteed and losses can and do happen. But when you have hot markets like we have today in oil and energy, my experience tells me that your odds of hitting the ball go up astronomically.

Consider the following ...

* Even without any interruptions in oil supplies from any of the political hot spots in the world (Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela and more) -- there’s simply not enough oil to go around.

China and India are consuming oil like mad, with one-third of the world’s population modernizing at rates never before seen in the history of modern civilization. At the same time, oil demand in every other corner of the globe outside of Asia is also on the upswing.

* Frigid temperatures in the U.S. and Europe are putting further upside pressure on oil demand. New England has been hit hard with frigid temperatures; and most of the Midwest has been suffering on and off with one of one coldest winters on record.

And last weekend in London, temperatures hit -2C, or -9C with the wind-chill factor. That’s as much as 19C BELOW NORMAL for this time of the year.

* Worldwide inventories of oil are tight as a drum, even though OPEC is pumping at near 100% capacity.

And to top it off ...

* The U.S. dollar is plunging. This ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar puts further upward pressure on oil prices, since oil is priced in dollars around the world.

Meanwhile ...

* Producers are maxed out. Pumping oil like crazy in every corner of the globe.

* Oil exploration activities aren’t moving fast enough to find new oil fields. Companies are just too darn busy pumping what oil they do have.

* Oil shippers are virtually booked solid for months to come. Even if more oil were to come online from producers, it would be nearly impossible to ship the oil fast enough to prevent a price squeeze.

* The price of oil is now within pennies of new record highs. Once it breaks through to a new record high, in my opinion, the fireworks will begin -- $80 oil is on its way.

This is an explosive situation. OPEC is right, and I believe its acknowledgement of $80 oil is another important indication that the next phase of the oil boom is here!







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hilarius
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Tuesday, March 08, 2005 - 02:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer

Entirely agree with the inflationary scenario ... unless Asian economies all decide to collapse in unison

It beggars belief to imagine what would happen if Africa and South America got onto the growth path as well

One question niggles ... wasn't the Iraq war all about freeing up the international flow of oil, with less dependence on OPEC ... yet seemingly even newly liberated Iraqis are facing queueing and rationing

Where are all the wonderful benefits of democracy and free markets?

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

 
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