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Archive through March 14, 2005

Chart Forum » Commodities & Futures » Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through March 14, 2005

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vermante
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Username: vermante

Post Number: 263
Registered: 11-2002

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Tuesday, March 08, 2005 - 03:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Gold and Oil tend to travel in the same direction, materials on the gallop , plenty of options

Cheers



Vermante


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archer
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Username: archer

Post Number: 504
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Tuesday, March 08, 2005 - 03:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius
You should not be so naive
The U.S did not got to war in Iraq for the benefit of the
Iraqi people
They saw the problems of the oil supply-demand situation
and are acting accordingly
Watch Venezuala next-they dont want to supply the U.S with
oil any more and are currently doing deals with India
Watch for the U.S liberation of Venezaila coming to a telly
near you







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rederob
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Username: rederob

Post Number: 654
Registered: 10-2002

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Tuesday, March 08, 2005 - 09:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer
wash mouth out with soap
overwhelming evidence of WMD
and naughty bad Madam Hussein
had to be dealt a lesson
we have no more terrorism
free and democratic iraq
and abundant oil
am i missing something


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hilarius
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Username: hilarius

Post Number: 569
Registered: 04-2004

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Tuesday, March 08, 2005 - 10:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer

I did not for a moment imagine the motive for the invasion was altruistic (although altruistic language is used to justify it and is used to try to motivate the young Americans whose lives are on the line)

However I did expect a beneficial flow of Iraqi oil in terms of a lower oil price ... with some side benefit in that opening up of supply to the local population

I am sure you detected my cynicism about the benefits of democracy confirming that my monkish habit conceals a realistic desire to understand, rather than a naive one

Where is all the Iraqi oil going and why is not additive to supply and why is it not downwardly impacting on prices?

Are the Americans co-conspirators in a cartel to raise the prices to record levels?

With best wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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archer
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Post Number: 505
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Wednesday, March 09, 2005 - 06:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes i did detect the cynicism
Heres a good article explaining some U.S.practises
As you sow so shall you reap-if you get my drift
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GA06Dj01.html


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rederob
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Username: rederob

Post Number: 655
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Wednesday, March 09, 2005 - 07:26 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Commodity Prices Climb to 24-Year High on Global Demand Growth
March 8 (Bloomberg) -- Commodity prices surged to a 24-year high, led by gains in copper and crude oil, on concern that global economic growth is eroding inventories of raw materials faster than supplies can be replenished.

Copper reached a 16-year high, and oil rose near a record in New York, extending the rally in the Reuters-CRB Index of 17 commodities to the highest since January 1981. The index gained 7.1 percent in February, the most in any month since August 1983.

``Everybody wants to be long of commodities,'' said Stephen Briggs, an analyst at Societe Generale in London. Hedge fund managers ``think that the potential returns in commodities are still very high,'' Briggs said.
}


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vermante
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Username: vermante

Post Number: 266
Registered: 11-2002

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Thursday, March 10, 2005 - 06:08 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Mining stocks on the gallop - Extract



"Mining stocks jump $3b

NEALE PRIOR



Investors pumped more than $3 billion into Australian resource stocks yesterday as they chased down WA miners in search of the next takeover targets after BHP Billiton's record tilt at WMC Resources.

With Swiss predator Xstrata expected to waste little time running the ruler over other potential targets after its failed offer for WMC, and other offshore predators casting around for fresh pickings, WA is considered fertile ground.

Murrin Murrin nickel miner Minara Resources, which like Xstrata has controversial Swiss metals trader Glencore as its major shareholder, starred among WA miners yesterday with its shares surging to $2.32 on heavy volumes before closing 15˘ up at $2.22.

And there was strong buying in Michael Kiernan's acquisitive manganese, chromite and nickel group Consolidated Minerals, which peaked at a record $3.92 before closing 26˘ up at $3.89 amid speculation it may also become a target.

Analysts are preparing for a sweeping re-evaluation of Australian resource stocks in the wake of BHP's $9.2 billion agreed offer, which is seen as a bet on sustained metals and energy prices.

Patersons Securities head of research Rob Brierley said market players were hunting for potential targets at the same time as analysts were considering a fundamental reappraisal of the long-term strength of commodity prices, much as occurred in the petroleum sector last year on the back of higher oil prices.

Kerry Harmanis's Jubilee Mines, which has built itself into a very profitable nickel producer, continued a strong week by surging 14˘ to $5.68 after touching $5.70.

And the market's love affair with Andrew Forrest's vision of a third major Pilbara iron ore project to rival established players BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto showed no sign of abating, with Fortescue Metals Group storming 31˘ higher to a record $5.36.

The gain added another $32 million to the $500 million paper fortune Mr Forrest has built from his controlling stake in Fortescue, his first major resources play since he established Murrin Murrin with the backing of Glencore when Minara was known as Anaconda Nickel.

Xstrata chief Mick Davis told a briefing after Xstrata released its full year result last week that his group wanted the WMC takeover resolved so the group could pursue other acquisition opportunities.

He expressed interest in iron ore, platinum and manganese but admitted opportunities were limited.

WA iron ore hopeful Aztec Resources jumped 2.5˘ to 28˘, having doubled in value this financial year, as market players punted on a bankable feasibility study and rising iron prices underpinning its plans to become a niche player by reopening the Koolan Island mining operation.

Aztec and Mid-West iron ore players Midwest Corporation and Mount Gibson are seen as prime targets for consolidation of WA junior iron ore industry, which has been boosted by the stunning 70 per cent-plus price rises secured by the major miners from Japanese steel mills.

Hogan & Partners analyst Tony Lofthouse said US metals group Cleveland-Cliffs was unlikely to be satisfied by a takeover of just Portman Mining and could look to the Mid-West players, particularly given its lack of debt and its expertise in pellets".

© 2005 West Australian Newspapers Limited
All Rights Reserved.
Top Home

Cheers

Vermante


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msparks
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Post Number: 48
Registered: 10-2004

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Saturday, March 12, 2005 - 08:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



http://www.321energy.com/index.php
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/hoye/hoye030905.html


mm

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rederob
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Post Number: 656
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Saturday, March 12, 2005 - 11:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day Ms Parks (as Old Wombat presumed!)
Hoye's article is interesting but he sits on the fence after offering ideas on where oil might be and where it's heading.
The overriding fact is that the world has ample oil for now and even the next 50 years.
But there is barely adequate capacity to meet present demand for crude, and just enough refining capacity to keep wheels turning irrespective of which continent you are on.
And oil discoveries are fewer and less robust year on year - indeed we are near "peak oil" and closing in on the downhill slide.
It means that over the next ten years it is possible for oil prices to meander up and down.
However, if a substitute for oil is not found for air/vehicle travel it is inevitable that oil will rise to meteoric prices until we just don't go places anymore!!!
Have you ever wondered why no new refinery has been built in the USA for 20 years?
Oil companies would generally be concerned about oil prices staying too high too long as it negatively affects world economies and causes recessions - not good for business.
Nowadays, however, higher oil prices are needed to sustain massively expensive exploration/drilling campaigns, often offshore in deep waters.
Take your eyes of the charts for a while and think about what's happening.
We have a finite resource that needs to satisfy increasing annual demand, and we know that its reserves are drying up faster than they can be replaced.
If the writing is not on the wall it's probably because the sh!t hit the fan, as dogalog might say.


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julles
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Post Number: 1400
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Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 12:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm seeing where your coming from Rob, I've held great respect for your posts and contributions to the forum.

I have a question, and I hope you can help.

As you've mentioned the Oil Energy reserves are drying up, the have too. Einstien theory. Nothing lasts forever,

With that fact established what will the world look for as Energy sustinance. I'm not well read or educated and I'm not being fasciscous. An honest answer will be read and appreciated.

Thankyou... Julles ... Please do forgive my spelling I tried three times with spell check and a year 9 education didn't seem to help. Apologies and Thankyou.

Julles


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rederob
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Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 08:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Julles
Can't really answer your question as don't know - might be very rich if I had a clue.
Apart from using wind, tide, solar, biomass, geothermal etc, energy sources for electricity generation, there is a lot of research into "cracking" water and using hydrogen as the combustible alternative to gasoline/petrol.
Others may be more clued into the latest state of play and want to contribute.
I won't include nuclear at this point as power production costs ignore waste storage cost and environmental issues.
We will continue to use oil until it no longer gives us desirable "bangs for the buck".
In other words, there is no more cost effective investment in "portable" energy than there is in oil at this point in time.
When the numbers decisively tip in favour of alternative energy sources, oil will be relegated to the pages of history.
Just as people of the 19th century could not have conceived of television, let alone computers that allow immediate text voice and video communication across the world, I dare say an energy source is out there that we cannot today conceive.
Sorry that this may not be what you hoped for but my education in this area is very formative.

My "Jules Verne" attempt at a solution would be a machine for transportation that harnessed gravity and moved effortlessly, silently and without using any present day energy source.
Prize to first reader who has a picture of "gravity" (that is not a falling apple!)


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archer
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Post Number: 515
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Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 08:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



There are many alternatives out there Julles just waiting
to be unlocked,and the key is higher oil prices
there have been many oil wells drilled in the last fifty
years that were capped simply because they were not
economical at 20-30 dollars
then there is the massive canadian oil sands projects
some say they are as big as the arab oil fields but need
60-75 dollar per barrel to be economic-others say 80-100
dollars per barrel is required
then there is the coal to oil conversion process which china
is getting into as they have vast coal reserves
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/litle/litle031405.html
Higher energy costs will also spur greater research into
other alternatives like solar,wind,hydro
http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2005/Update46.htm
http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update45.htm
The key though is higher energy costs and therefore higher
inflation for many years (possibly decades) to come
Archer


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msparks
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Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 09:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



just a few thoughts

If you were an oil company would you release the patents to alternative energy sources,like hydrogen ,just because the world needs cheap energy.Oil companies rule the world!

Perhaps expensive energy may make people think a little harder about the size of the motor in their chariot or the efficiency of their energy usage in the home.

You have to feel for the nations that only have oil as a resource.
Do you think there would be that war if there was no oil?

Nuclear energy is the only way they can replace coal for electricity generation, they just have too much resource to sell before they allow it to happen on a larger scale.

Solar,wind,water/hydro(whats that,have we any left), etc are only gap fillers unless people decide they only need it when the sun shines or the wind blows. (not likely)


mm

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ingot54
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Post Number: 451
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Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 09:40 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



There is no doubt a solution is out there, regarding an alternative to oil as a form of energy.

I love to take cheap shots - it's what I do!

So it's no surprise I am thinking along these lines ...

"If the USA were to spend, what it has spent on the Afghani and Iraqi campaigns, on development of future energy, the money being diverted towards terrorist campaigns by sympathetic (and pathetic) oil-exporting nations, would dry up overnight."

This reliance on nations which are bleeding every $ out of the west needs to stop. It's out of balance.

Ingot says - "Spend 10% of the military budget on peace initiatives. Spend another 10% of the military budget on genuinely relieving human misery,poverty, hunger, and providing clean water and shelter for all. Put the remaining 80$% of the military budget in your pocket - it won't be needed. Send the army home to the farm, or to the third world, to help clean up the mess created by the Colonialism of the 19th century and beyond."

But then, I am an armchair idealist.

As you were.


If a kite can just catch the breeze, how high can it go...

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hilarius
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Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 10:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good Morning

Looks like we all need to buy a mini-truck (commonly known as a 4 wheel drive) so the oil price can rise faster and the oil reserves can get used up sooner, so new solutions can be found ...

What ever happened to small is beautiful?

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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hilarius
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Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 10:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



PS

Or walking and bike riding

Isn't Australia flat enough?

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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archer
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Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 10:27 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"Oil companies rule the world!"
I say Oil companies rule the western world!
and the future will come from the east
Remember China and moreso India are fast catching the U.S
in terms of technology
The required breakthroughs will come from these countries
and the oil companies will have no say
-----------------
"Nuclear energy is the only way they can replace coal for electricity generation, they just have too much resource to sell before they allow it to happen on a larger scale. "
China has plans for 30-50 nuclear power stations which
include a new breed of reactor-The oil Cos have no say
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/litle/litle031405.html
-----------------
"Solar,wind,water/hydro(whats that,have we any left), "
At school i was taught the world surface was 70% water
and this is actually increasing with sea level rise
That great mass of water constantly moving around the
planet releasing vast amounts of energy just waiting
to be harnessed
Just as power shifted form Britain and Europe to the U.S
last century this century it is moving from the U.S to
China and to a lesser extent India where the oil people
have less control and innovation can flow more freely
Archer


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suemac
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Sunday, March 13, 2005 - 05:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer,

"Just as power shifted from Britain and Europe to the U.S last century this century it is moving from the U.S to China and to a lesser extent India where the oil people
have less control and innovation can flow more freely."

Do the Yanks know this? Won't they just love it!

There would be many out there in the offing with technologies just biding their time; remember, Philips bought out the patent for the perpetual light bulb and promptly filed it in a safe place and continued manufacturing ones that have to be replaced!

Susan


Behold the turtle; he makes no progress unless he sticks his neck out!

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archer
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Monday, March 14, 2005 - 08:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Susan
Yes the yanks know this
Why do you think they suddenly got the urge to bring
democracy to the mid-east
Control the flow of oil and you control a countries
progress
It wont work of course but the U.S seems intent on learning
the hard way
The U.S is fast becoming less relevant in world affairs
and a decade down the track the changes in the political
world map will be staggering
Just my opinion of course
Archer


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hilarius
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Monday, March 14, 2005 - 10:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer

When an economy is highly dependent on borrowing, luxuries, travel, drugs, entertainment, sex, arms sales, oil dependent cars and planes, and military spending you know it is like the last days of the Roman Empire

And the US Emperor is a convert to Christianity

Any other parallels?

Will China and India avoid these perils?

Thank God for the good sense of the Europeans who have finally realised war gets them nowhere but a common currency does a lot of good

How soon can we all look forward to Chinese and Indian wages ... especially our CEOs who steal our jobs and hand them over to the third world and charge squillions in salaries and benefits for their brilliantly insightful greed at our expense ...

I welcome free trade on equal terms ... so perhaps they will be the first to volunteer to be paid sweated labour wages, so we can have a level playing field?

By the time we level the field for Africa and South America it may finally dawn upon us all that we need simpler but more fruitful and productive lives instead of just playing the markets

With Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Monday, March 14, 2005 - 10:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bro Hilarius
An excellent point about outsourcing.
We have it back to front.
As chiefs are paid more than indians, if we outsourced chiefs to India then our local indians might have wage parity with our chiefs in India.
(They could all make lots of rupees and call themselves "millionaires", too!!!)
A slight variation on the "Indian giving" theme.


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hilarius
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Monday, March 14, 2005 - 10:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



LOL

Perhaps we are headed towards the Rupee as the new world currency of choice

That would give the Chinese curry ;)

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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archer
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Monday, March 14, 2005 - 01:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius
----
to quote you
"By the time we level the field for Africa and South America it may finally dawn upon us all that we need simpler but more fruitful and productive lives instead of just playing the markets "
------------------
“For the average Roman a visit to the public baths in the afternoon was an irreplaceable part of the day’s routine. Ordinarily, hot bathing would be preceded by various games and physical exercise …” “Many of the larger bathing complexes contained lecture halls, libraries, and promenades.” “They covered extensive gardens and sports grounds and included a ring of secondary, quasi-cultural functions around the main bath block.” Fikret Yegul, 1995

Few citizens were so poor that they could not afford the trifling entrance fee.”

“Bathing was important to the Roman society because it was a daily habit. The structure of the Roman day reserved the afternoon and evening for leisure, to balance morning hours devoted to hard work and business. Already, by the beginning of the empire, spending the larger part of the afternoon in the public baths and palaestrae had become a tradition, and unquestionable part of nation life and identity.” Fikret Yegul, 1995

“Moreover, physical exercise for all ages almost always accompanied bathing as a means of keeping fit and healthy.” “…even the poorest could escape the dusty streets for a few hours a day and share the empire’s wealth and, perhaps, ideologies.” “We are especially intrigued because antiquity has taken what is, to us, a basic and prosaic function and elevated it to the level of a cultural and recreational act, a civic institution for which there is no real counterpart in modern Western civilization.” Fikret Yegul, 1995
-------------
In these times we are closer to serfdom than to the peak
of the Roman Empire
Now that we have arrived at this new serfdom, few individuals actually recognize it ...
Unfortunately Australia is in a very similar situation
to the U.S
Archer


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hilarius
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Monday, March 14, 2005 - 01:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer

Your comments are most insightful ... I am reminded of the brief career of my brother Claudius at Incredible Charts, before he retired to a life of grape testing ... and of course the physical education of which you so rightly speak

To the best of my knowledge though he never actually caught a vestal virgin ... clearly his studies of philosophy and theology took priority

Such are the blessings of a great civilisation

Mens sana in corpore sano

Hilarius







I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Monday, March 14, 2005 - 02:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bro Hilarius
Surely one is more sound and the body healthy once one has been caught.


ps, are there any left?

 
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Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through September 17, 2005rederob25 17-Sep-05  05:14 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through August 11, 2005rederob25 11-Aug-05  08:19 pm
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Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through May 02, 2005archer67 02-May-05  08:50 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through April 02, 2005perler5925 02-Apr-05  10:35 am
Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through March 08, 2005hilarius25 08-Mar-05  02:20 pm

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