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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through May 02, 2005

Chart Forum » Commodities & Futures » Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through May 02, 2005

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rederob
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Username: rederob

Post Number: 698
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Saturday, April 02, 2005 - 10:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



perler, it will!!!
to the extent that refineries have capacity to "store" the crude - perhaps that's where the problem lies.
in other words, the refineries may be at full capacity in terms of unrefined crude and refined products - i just don't know!!
but if the price is going up on refining capacity i am supposing some others are more expert at determining that this is a problem - or maybe they are as silly as me.
whatever, the price keeps surging higher.........


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rederob
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Wednesday, April 06, 2005 - 06:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A quick observation:
Base metals have been coming only slightly off the boil while the greenback has run to 5-month highs.
Oil's dip over recent days could be just as easily explained by dollar weakness.
As we know, currencies run in cycles and soon the greenback will weaken again.
So I fully expect another base metal rally this quarter to historic highs - especially nickel which will experience supply problems from Norilsk, and from mandatory maintenance shutdowns from US and Oz suppliers.







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danielc
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Wednesday, April 06, 2005 - 08:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



luv ya redrob you steady me.i tend to stand too close and get caught up in the noise,your posts make me stand back and look at the big picture, best danc}


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greatdane
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Wednesday, April 06, 2005 - 11:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MARKET TALK: Nickel In Consolidation; Outokumpu Impact 06/04/05 10:45:00

0045 GMT [Dow Jones] Nickel maintaining consolidation mode above $15,600 support as LME stocks take another hit. LME 3-month $15,750/ton, up just $50 on London PM kerb. Major producer Outokumpu's cautious outlook for European stainless steel demand weighing a bit; company hinted it will focus more on Asia, where demand still robust. Some analysts wondering if remarks will be reflected in upcoming results of Inco, world's largest nickel producer;
stainless steel companies are main buyers of nickel. (JAD)

Contact us in Singapore. 65 64154 140;
MarketTalk@dowjones.com


Regards, GreatDane

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rederob
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Thursday, April 07, 2005 - 08:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



7 April 2005:
The fall in global metal stockpiles was stabilising, and supply in base metals markets was starting to flatten out relative to demand, Westpac Banking Corp general manager economics Bill Evans said.

So what his evidence?
I can't find any all and I only look each day.
For example, copper stockpiles in the US are again declining markedly, and Shanghai has so little left that its coffers could empty at any time.
Zinc drawdowns continue apace.
Only Nickel has really yo-yoed, but it's in a very tight, almost illiquid market at the moment.
The only saviour for several of the complexes is that backwardation rates are allowing warehouses to restock.
So, danielc and others that might get too close for comfort, sit back and watch the prices run further north... enjoy.



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rederob
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Saturday, April 09, 2005 - 11:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



We're running out of oil, says Costello
By Josh Gordon
Economics correspondent
Canberra
April 9, 2005

Treasurer Peter Costello has delivered a blunt warning that Australia is running out of oil as existing fields near the end of their productive lives.
In a speech to the Northern Territory Cattlemen's Association, Mr Costello said it was little known that Australian exports of fuel had been falling for years despite soaring prices.
"The reason why Australia's crude oil exports have fallen over recent years - while world demand and prices have increased to record levels and LNG exports are booming - is that some of our oilfields are approaching the end of their productive lives," he said.

It doesn't take much to satisfy Oz oil needs (about 600k barrels/day compared to world's use of 82million bbl/day).
But it will mean that as our o/s oil dependence increases, so too will our current account deficit - and inflationary burden.
Luckily oil prices have had their longest losing streak since last August - and at over US$53/bbl you can see we are at bargain basement prices again!
Yes, US crude inventories have risen 8 weeks in a row and some pressure is off oil near term - let's see how long it lasts.
Onto base metals:
Copper and nickel are poised for bigger things as supply tightness spooks speculators and leaves commercials wondering how long to play the game.
While technically relatively "neutral", these metals could do with a spell in the paddocks next week before striking fast running form again.
Regrettably, LME data suggests a lot of warehouse action in play, and likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
So forays north for copper and nickel should prevail.
I have a suspicion that once the BHP v's China iron ore price dispute is resolved, nickel will have a steady path higher over the next 12 months - I will stick out my neck and propose $17,000 nickel as support by year's end.
Copper's predicament is mapped below:




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danielc
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Sunday, April 10, 2005 - 06:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



redrob,been watching stock IGO,independence group,a nickel producer, strong day week and mth charts,mention in latest shares mag as a goer,half a hair off taking a possie,do you have any opinion please,regards danielc


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rederob
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Sunday, April 10, 2005 - 06:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



danielc
IGO has been on my watchlist for several months after a colleague in WA said it was his favourite junior commodity stock.
I looked at it at the time and reckoned it was OK - not looked since.
Had good reserves, strong cash position and was a low cost producer. Also had good tenements for exploration activity.
Given that the average price of nickel was again higher in March than in December quarter, IGO should have a great second half.
My preferred nickel junior is SMY and I believe it will have a result at financial year end exceptionally better than pro forma.


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rederob
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Tuesday, April 12, 2005 - 07:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just noticed LME copper inventory increased markedly (1775 tonnes) today.
Looks like the tide has turned.
Not at all!
In fact available copper increased only 250 tonnes as 1500 tonnes of cancelled warrants have not been removed from the warehouse as yet.
Meanwhile, Comex warehouses have continued to run down stocks of copper, and Shanghai's exchange is dreading a possible 10000tonne drawdown as the State Reserve may take physically delivery in the week (rolled forward from March).
Note that copper's tightness was propelling or sustaining base metal prices during the last month as the USD appreciated - a rare event.
Greenback weakness must be causing consumers some grief as copper's upside seems assured near/immediate term as long positions continue to build.
Nickel's narrow range is a marvel and its tight supply must also be creating some worry.
It does seem that consumers stopped buying earlier this year, in an attempt to reduce prices to the preferred under-$15000 range.
Lo and behold, it has not worked as the juggernaught we know as China did not apply the brakes as many anticipated, and continues its long march north.
Meanwhile, oil toys with funds who know not what to do - go short or long?
There may be enough crude, we know there's just enough refined, but then there could be an event of any magnitude to tip the scales high.
Short term downside should be the order of the day, but to gamble against a refinery problem, an earthquake, some political unrest in the M.E., Africa or S.America, or any of dozens of possible "situations" is an equally risky play, it seems.
Who will blink first?


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rederob
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Wednesday, April 13, 2005 - 07:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



overnight fund dumping of base metals hit copper hardest - 3cent drop
clearly the rise needed to cap and falter - has happened
a few more days in the wilderness will do the metals complex good
although miners/producers will get smacked about today
fundamentals keep tightening - so rebound assured
US trade data mixed with Fed statement dissection gave mixed messages, tho propped up DOW overnight
oil tumbled a few dollars
paraphrasing Keating , its the correction we had to have
now lets get back to business


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rederob
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 09:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"Absolute carnage"
almost - with nickel holding up relatively well
as Bloomberg put it
"The collective bail-out follows London Metal Exchange copper's scaling of historic highs of $3,338 per metric ton early Tuesday driven by a perceived squeeze of Chinese-based players. Profit takers stepped in at the highs to take advantage of the record prices, and further sellers joined the fray as prices retreated and the U.S. dollar stretched off recent lows soon after."
as my post last Saturday shows for copper, a downside break to 147cents could be tolerated - and spot prices did dip a touch under 148cents
so we reached a point where a break either way might tip the scales medium term
Shanghai inventory levels are announced later today and may weigh on the speculators and funds alike - if a mooted 10000tonnes offtake by China's State Reserve eventuates a move to the upside will be on in earnest
in the interim, US copper stockpiles have sustained firm daily drawdowns, countering LME resupply in the main
so copper's fundamentals are now screaming the "go long again" slogan
unlike oil that has amassed crude inventory builds across the globe, albeit slowly, copper remains at a global long term inventory low
and there is no sign yet that demand is being met or that "balance" has arrived - drawdown quantities remain robust in a market that is trying to eke out a price collapse by withholding replenishment
so we are now ripe for a climb over 160cents by end June


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archer
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 09:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Was going to post this yesterday
Overnight the triangle broke down
You can see some ugly moves from a break like that
cop


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vermante
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 09:59 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Chairmans report -RIO included the following comments on the demand growth for metals and minerals in 2005. I believe BHP had a similar outlook. Any carnage in the base metals sector , could be an ideal buying opportunity?.

Outlook

Regarding the outlook, we foresee continuing underlying demand growth for metals and
minerals in 2005.

In this environment, we expect that prices for most metals and minerals will remain above

the long term trend this year, although there may be some short term volatility.

The future
direction of the US dollar relative to our producing currencies remains an uncertainty and will
inevitably have an impact on earnings.


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archer
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 10:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I trust the charts way more than i trust funnymentals
Funnymentals say you should be right vermante-BUT
the charts suggest an unforseen event in the near future


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vermante
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 10:38 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Fair comments Arthur- BHP Technicals might be a lead indicator . My interest in the next few days/weeks is whether or not BHP will test the trend line?




Cheers

Vermante


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rederob
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 10:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer
has been a healthy breakdown in copper price - look at last October:
big gap on downside, and filled with a larger move north
funyymentals firmly intact
i'm holding the castle with vermante atm
drawbridge has not been lowered to let the infidels inside to plunder
may they circle the castle a little longer before we pour onto them burning fats and rain on them a barrage of arrows that renders their retreat
should they follow their noses, their scent of victory will shortly sour


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hilarius
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 10:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings

I trust the charts AND the fundamentals ... BHP at the long term trend line will scream out the message I am looking for, whereas the same chart for Dodgy Minerals NL would give me no confidence at all

BHP at $ 16 !!! Whoopee !!! Doing its best to get there !!!

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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archer
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 11:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Vermante,Hilarius
My doubt is not weather it will reach the T/L but weather it will hold


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rederob
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 11:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



not a lot of difference between a dust off and a dust up today
feel the nose bleeding and 'puter screen's a horrible red
rang for a doctor's app't to stem the bleeding
prognosis healthy and advice heard before
horse bucks you off, so get back on
long ride ahead
the odd nosebleed and bruise as we go along is to be expected
(apologies to Bro hilarius for sally's melee)

archer
i think the past few days is a classic expression of the "fear" factor, whereby the market panics into flight
it's a bit like seeing a shark fin in the water and bolting to the beach
where a less fearful inspection shows its fin to be of its nemesis, the porpoise
however some doubters might want more evidence - something tangible, visible, discernible
so it could be a while before they go back into the water
both feet


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archer
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 11:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Correct rederob but fear moves people much faster than greed
I was holding resources stocks in 97 when they went all
pearshaped
I wanted to make sure i didn't make that mistake again
Check the charts of some of the bigger stocks to see
the haircuts they received in that correction
Not saying the same will happen here but its usually a lot
more than people expect


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rederob
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Friday, April 15, 2005 - 12:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer
one can never discount a worst case scenario from happening

in this massacre i have been searching for the smokin' gun
who fired it and why?

the evidence shows:
it was a sawn off shotgun
fired buckshot - lots of blood, no lasting pain
trigger was pulled by media - badly interpreted Fed's notes on inflation and pace of further US interest rate hikes
shotgun held by the funds who fired aimlessly and often
looks like they added up Fed uncertainty with commodity-price topping, and let loose

shortly they will attended their wounded, realise the error of their ways, and make good

absolute carnage is relative and temporal
the charges of unlawful discharge of a weapon (via the "sell" trigger) and of reckless abandonment (of shareholders funds) are expected to be withdrawn

oversold markets in a habit of correcting altho, as archer notes, less quickly


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rederob
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Saturday, April 16, 2005 - 04:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



having lost 6 previous attempts to post a chart on nickel, I will instead post this link:
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical.html
Note that nickel was the strongest performer over the week closing at a near term cyclical high and only a few percent of record highs.


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rederob
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Saturday, April 16, 2005 - 06:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Lost in my attempt to post above were data on cancelled warrants.
In the case of copper, there is very little LME copper in Asia, a fair bit coming and going in Europe, and landings on the US West Coast affected by apparent arbitrage arrangements. The arbitrage has led to significant withdrawals of West Coast physical from Comex, with LME accumulating.
By the way, China's State Reserve was to take possession of 10000tonnes - that data becomes available on SHFE next Friday.
On the nickel front, cancelled warrants remain at a healthy 20-25% and have seen constant offtake leave only 6500tonnes available. This tightness saw nickel brave the storm and rise above it. It is a testimony to the power of fundamentals - consumers know supplies are being snapped up and cannot afford to be caught short. With just a few days stock available a short spike in prices can happen anytime on a large withdrawal.
The long-term backwardation of nickel's cash-3s above $200/tonne should have drawn most spare nickel into warehouses by now to take advantage of the spot price. I suspect scrap steel supplies have been stolen from any which where to meet demand.
If there are longer term blues, so be it. Nearer term the picture is still rock solid.


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rederob
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Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 08:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What a difference a day makes, 24 hours.......
So goes the song.
And up went the allords today, like a bat out of hell.
Seems things were not as bad as they were last week portrayed.
In relation to commodities, they were never bad to begin with.
Moreover, the compelling evidence is that apart from aluminium, base metal drawdowns continue in earnest. Comex copper inventories are starting to look decidedly shaky. While speculation abounds over China's State Reserve deferring a 10000tonne purchase.
Nickel's position is getting precarious and there could be a rush to warehouse doors in the next few weeks unless some white knight can deliver the odd 5000-10000tonnes quickly: About the same odds as another Polish Pope!
I have to ask where all this so called "ramped-up" production is?
The promise continues to be deferred - from the second half of 2004, to early 2005 and now to the second half of 2005: With some now tipping as late as the second half of 2006!
Commodity expert after commodity expert has revised upwards their 2005 base metal price averages, and they have not yet stopped. (Except ABARE - perhaps not such an expert - tipping copper for example to average 118cents/lb over 2004/5. This would require copper to fall immediately to 50cents/lb and stay there!!!)
Just as there were tell tales signs that the allords was topping, and due a near term correction, there are as many signs today that base metals near term have not yet peaked.
WMC's Mitchelmore was a doomsayer, not wanting prices to climb too high, and warning that nickel over $5/lb was not a good thing.
But with Goodyear's BHP tilting at WMC, we have the exact opposite. BHP are forecasting continuing commodity strength - perhaps no significant rises, but no weakness either.
China continues to take centre stage, but India is now a fine understudy.
I continue to read reports of major infrastructure projects getting the nod in India. It is a fiercely nationalistic country and will carry no truck that China will be the new world super power. And has an educated, significant English-speaking, population that can propel it out of the 20th century at a greater pace than China has moved.
Stymying India is its religious focus, caste system (to a continuing extent), and penchant for bureaucracy (borne out of British tradition).
But the trappings of 21st century westernised nations are highly prized, and its young population will transform the nation just as China has been transformed.
It's no good the so called experts writing throw-away lines about Asian economies (ex-China) until they understand what is happening.
I can't say I do, and some readers have emailed me about their Asian travels, confirming my ignorance.
But there is a big difference in industrial needs focussed on nation building, and industrial growth predicated on maintaining western society standards.


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hilarius
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Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 10:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Father Rederob

Since when was religious focus a problem?

Don't you remember the "christian" conquistadores and their focus on gold?

On second thoughts they weren't all that christian

Hilarius (praying for the gold-bugs)

(Message edited by Hilarius on April 19, 2005)


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 11:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Bro Hilarius
I am assuming you answered your own doubts when asking, "Since when was religious focus a problem?"
In thinking of India, however, a reference to a god for all seasons and a god for all reasons never worried me, but a reverence for their holiest of beasts did.
I am told India can be a cow of a place for the unsuspecting, until they have it down pat.


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hilarius
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Tuesday, April 19, 2005 - 11:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Father Rederob

I have no beef with your comments

In fact I greet them with udder delight

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Wednesday, April 20, 2005 - 07:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Bro Hilarius
Your comments epitomise the milk of human kindness.
As always

So to the action on commodities before I disappear to Northern climes for more yakka over the next few days.
Oil up again, with punters siding on inventory declines in the US this week - a brave call, but driving season is just around the corner!
$50 oil as support and $60 as resistance with an upside break likely late June/July.
Nickel tight supply at recall levels - live warrants under 6,000tonnes and cancelled warrants averaging over 25% of inventory over past week. Continuing drawdowns will raise backwardation and could get any spare metals into the warehouse - is there any spare being the big question?
Nickel to outperform in the near term.
Aluminium technically oversold with dichotomy of US drawdowns and LME restocking mixing the picture.
Plenty aluminium in the system so while the technicals are supportive, will need to see drawdowns increase markedly for any notable price rises.
Copper's a bit like Ali except market tightness in the US is getting consumers worried. LME stocks are steady to rising and we shall see what happens to Shanghai on Friday night. Backwardation continues to keep LME stocks at a safe level for now. Overall copper to hold firm, and move sharply either way on Friday's Shanghai inventory outcome.
Zinc drawdowns have firmed over the month and cancelled warrants have spun out from around 3% early in the year to around 10% now. Supply not meeting demand for the medium term and prices may rise further.
Watch the greenback for possible variations on the short term theme.
Medium term see base metals holding firm or gaining slightly to reclaim former highs.
Keep watching the spaces...........


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ricardon
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Can someone post a link to a good site for oil futures? I am holding OSH and wondering if the demand is likely to return for this share or if I am better moving to a base metals player that has been chopped in half by recent events.

- took the plunge and bought into RTM today in the hope that this time their announcement will prove solid.


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captain_chaza
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Ahoy Ric
Try
britefutures.com
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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Merrill Outlook

Merrill Lynch & Co., the world's biggest securities firm, said April 5 that commodity prices may collapse like technology shares did in 2000. China's growth, which accounted for a 10th of the world's total last year, relies on exports to the U.S., where consumer spending has climbed 3 percent or more in every year but one since 1996, said David Bowers, Merrill's London- based chief global equity strategist.

U.S. spending may slow as inflation accelerates and the Federal Reserve adds to seven interest-rate increases since June, Choyleva and Bowers said. The U.S. consumer price index, excluding energy and food, rose 0.4 percent in March, twice the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey and the biggest gain since August 2002.

The outlook from Merrill and Lombard Street contrasts with forecasts from Deutsche Bank AG and Citigroup Inc. Deutsche Bank analysts, led by John MacKinnon in London, said April 14 that Chinese demand will lead to an ``extended cycle'' of higher prices for metals and minerals. Alan Heap, a Citigroup analyst in Sydney, said in February that metals might be entering a ``super cycle'' of rising prices as demand outpaced production.


Merrill are smarter than me because that's their job!
But to compare the dotcom bubble to the commodity bubble is techobabble.
Commodity prices could drop at any time, that's the nature of markets, but a "hard landing" based on available data is just too pessimistic.
Try as they may, Chinese officials are unable to slow down the nation's growth to any degree.
And if China did hit the wall, what would be the impact compared to the tech-bubble burst?
My favourite little aussie battler, SMY, trades at a PE of around 7, with estimates that it will trade under 4 in 2006. BHP trades at a PE of around 15 and Rio just under 17.
Forgive me, Yahoo - a techrek survivor - presently trades at a PE of 65. And many other NASDAQ tech stock trade at much higher multiples today!
The simple fact of the matter in Australia is that if commodity prices remain high, the Oz companies named above will have lower PEs going forward, and falling commodity prices might simply keep the PEs steady.
The market has already factored into many Oz commodities the Merrill-mooted scenario.
I tonight read Basemetals.com tipping a more likely downside than upside to commodities in the near to medium term. Oddly (for me) it was predicated on weakening demand already showing in LME inventories.
Utter nonsense!
Strong backwardation will draw in supplies, particularly for copper and nickel, so care in LME data must be exercised. However, given that Comex copper declines have offset LME rises, and Shanghai is little changed over the week, coppers demand remains robust.
Should mention that 60,000tonnes of copper were apparently landed in China over the past week or so - the question lingering is where it went to?
Meanwhile available LME nickel is down to lowest levels I could discover since LME data became available - some 5000tonnes. More significant is that the pace of cancelled warrants has increased greatly over the last month.
Given the upbeat comments made on the US economy the other day, a more balanced view would conclude that commodity prices are at least maintained for the remainder of 2005.
Should that prove so, Oz companies exposed to commodity spot prices will have a ripper financial year, and a great calendar year to boot.


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rederob
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Saturday, April 23, 2005 - 07:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Inco in nickel:
http://www.mineweb.net/sections/base_metals/434417.htm

It confirms that the world's predominant metals producers like BHP and Inco have a view that much longer term higher prices are here to stay.


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hilarius
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https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/6/467252.html

It confirms that Father Rederob may soon be asked to become Governor of the Reserve Bank

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Bro Hilarius
The votes coming in - all 2 of them - are very much mixed on the RBA Governorship.
I could have been a stronger contender for Pope.
Alas, past religious indiscretions, including accepting payment for indulgences, were worrisome.
Especially as I reinvested these monies into an overheated commodities market!

So to the main game, again.
Australia's economy is humming along beautifully, despite the odd shakeout at the top of the allords.
Our penchant for benevolent donations of primary products to overseas users took a turn when BHP tried to up the ante on iron contracts to China. There was a perception that BHP caved in a little early as it had excellent leverage.
But culturally it was more important for BHP to back down and allow the Chinese to save face. I believe BHP has commanded a greater respect for the position it adopted and bodes well in future dealings.
The point being that our cycle of investment in infrastructure and exploration, which was sadly neglected for many years, now has a firm financial backing - better contract prices going forward.
Despite the isolated nature of our mines and production facilities, the profitability of our mining companies will progressively feed into our economy.
This is because the "operations" are isolated, but the management, administration, purchasing functions, etc are not and the multiplier effect begins to bite.
The cycle completes when exploration efforts successfully "find" resources that replace the high levels of depletion and give companies the confidence their activities remain "lifelong".
I see the metal/oil commodity sector continuing to outperform most other industry sectors over the next 12-18months.


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rederob
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Sunday, April 24, 2005 - 09:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



good article on oil, and peak oil's impact on prices at:
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/hommelberg042205.html

snippet:
According to M King Hubbert Production peaks follow Discovery peaks after approximately 40 years.
US Oil production already peaked in 1970.
Non OPEC Oil production already peaked in the early 90's.
World Oil production will peak when OPEC peaks
OPEC peaks when Saudi Arabia peaks
Saudi Arabia peaks when Ghawar peaks
Ghawar is aging rapidly and its life expectancy isn't rosy. Matthew Simmons says that the end is in sight.
Prof. Kenneth Deffeyes predicts PEAK-OIL to happen in 2005
Bank of Montreal says that Gharwar is in already in decline.
World Oil peak production means the End of Cheap Oil
The End of Cheap Oil means continuing rising Oil prices which translates itself into Oil shocks.
French investment bank Ixis-CIB has warned crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015.
Previous Oil shocks were an perfect call for recession/Inflation
Gold is the ultimate Hedge against Inflation
Rising Oil prices brings the historical Gold/Oil average way out of balance
Historical average of the Gold/Oil ratio suggest a price of Gold exceeding $800 nowadays.



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rederob
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Sunday, April 24, 2005 - 10:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



perler
scanned above and noticed your wonderful oil charts - can you please oblige with an update?
with thanks
rederob


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rederob
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The chart below tells us why US oil prices are not likely to tail off significantly in future.
US oil refineries are depleting in number, and existing refineries have been cranked up to meet ongoing demand.
The upshot is that capacity utilisation is as high as possible, and any mishap or maintenance event places strains on total output.
To maintain high output, US refineries need to import the lightest (sweet) crudes, or fail to meet demand.
They are caught in a bind.
If they pay less for heavy oils, prices rise because demand is not satisfied! So they pay pay more for premium crude, and prices rise anyway: It's the lesser of two evils.
The last new refinery in US was built in 1976. So closures will continue, and massive dollar amounts will be injected into upgrades, placing upward pressure on production costs. So in the unlikely event that crude prices drop, refining costs will pick up the slack.
Next time you read about the price of oil being too high and therefore MUST fall, put that sentiment into a medium term context - maybe the next few months.
$60 oil is a dead cert, so too $100 oil - it's just a matter of when, and we are talking only matter of years away.




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perler59
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Sunday, April 24, 2005 - 11:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob.

High volatility, higher low and new up trend. Looks like we're shooting for $60 +

Oil_2005-04-22.PNG


The successful traders are the ones whose tolerance for their own bad habits, runs out before their money.

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rederob
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Sunday, April 24, 2005 - 06:43 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Finishing touches on the oil picture:
http://321energy.com/editorials/cornerstone/cornerstone042505.html
Is WPL, STO or OSH the better buy?
Or is there a lesser producer that offers better value?
My punt is that OSH is the better prospect for growth, and may be the more likely takeover target from a Chinese predator.
I shall now look at at adding OSH (again!).


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tony_m
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Re the market, you would be pleased to know that my wife and I along with a few friends have been in Burgundy for a few weeks trying to induce a Pinot Noir, Chardonnay, Chablis and Alegote induced market recovery in Europe which hopefully will flow on to the rest of the world.

So far the deficit seems to be deepening, at least in my credit card, and there is no discernible difference in the reported European wine glut but we are assiduously working on the problem and will report in detail upon our return.......Tony_M


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archer
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Monday, April 25, 2005 - 01:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob
Have you ever had a look at TAP oil????


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rederob
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Monday, April 25, 2005 - 01:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



archer
briefly, only
TAP was on the smaller side of my equations (a "lesser producer")
seems underpriced on present performance
will do well from any major find and has good prospective acreage


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rederob
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Tuesday, April 26, 2005 - 03:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



RIO plumps for WMR - rumour...
WMR runs significantly over BHP offer price fact.....
Buy WMR
Sell BHP
seemed to work today!


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captain_chaza
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Ahoy there Officer Big Red Bob

I wouldn't leave my little NCM out of the equation
Something is not Kosher!
She has a long history of buying out large Gold producers
and selling off the rest to arrest any chance of a piddly takeover bid
However WMC sold off her Alumina in the form of AWC to attract a takeover
I guess the Directors were just getting tired or too old to slug it out in boom conditions

I am really getting a bit Sea-sick with this one!
Crikey! I hope she does not turn out to be another Long term trade

"Only the Wind Calls the Tune"
Captain Chaza 1997

Salute for now
capn
PS Being Cashed-Up can sometimes lead to some really bad mistakes one would never make when under a full spread of sail presented to the wind


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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Good Captain
I have discounted NCM from any consideration in a bidding war over WMR - it's not their cup of tea (is it?).
On the other hand, RIO would add "new" major resources to its inventory via copper and uranium exposure - good commercial sense.
Moreover, WMR holders probably know that BHP could afford to counter bid any RIO offer and pay it in cash - explains today's action.
Further consolidation of metal markets will just give shareholders more optimism that the war "is on" (even though it hasn't even started!).

Onto the overall theme of the thread:
Below is latest state of play on inventories - look carefully to see that copper's addition at LME is countered by its deletion from Comex:
London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 553,725 -5550
Copper 60,075 +175
Nickel 6,642 -114
Lead 32,875 -25
Zinc 549,500 -1600
New York Futures Market Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tons in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 90,174 -1034
Copper 31,872 -175


Today's feature chart is Zinc:




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rederob
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Wednesday, April 27, 2005 - 11:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Could this one be the bit of news that makes oil obsolete over the next 10-20 years?
And it's mildly positive for nickel/cobalt at the expense of platinum:
http://www.azonano.com/news.asp?newsID=815


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perler59
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Hydrogen is nothing more than a store of energy in chemical form, as is oil. From where to we get the energy before we store it? The usual answers are solar and nuclear. Crude appears to have done a U-turn and is headed for another test of $50 a barrel.


The successful traders are the ones whose tolerance for their own bad habits, runs out before their money.

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rederob
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President George W Bush unveiled a five-part energy plan on Wednesday designed to reduce the US's dependence on fossil fuels, such as oil, so said the media release.
And the markets responded by taking 5% off the oil price!
Was there really any good news from Bush?
Well, he does propose to subsidise hydrogen fuel cell vehicles - has anyone been able to buy one yet?
He also is keen to get ethanol into fuels - tick that box.
He wants to build more nuclear power plants - NIMBY.
He wants to make it easier to build oil refineries - yet oil is near to peaking.
He wants to construct superconducting power lines - this is new and expensive technology but has great longer term potential.

Bush made no attempt to reduce "demand" for energy, but he's not too bright and might have simply forgotten - I will give him the benefit of doubt.

Does Bush's plan have any near or medium term impact on oil?
NO.
A statesman-like performance with a few good ideas that might come to fruition in 5-10years. By then peak oil may have taken us over the edge of $100 oil.

To fuel the peak oil debate, a recent good read:
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=632811


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hilarius
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Father Rederob

As next Governor of the Reserve Bank could you please tell me :-

(1) Who invented the 4 wheel drive?
(2) Is the inventor related to George W. Bush or Osama Bin Laden ... or both?

With Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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hilarius
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Thursday, April 28, 2005 - 09:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Captain Chazza

Which method of transporting large numbers of people internationally is the most environmentally friendly?

(1) Passenger Jets
(2) Ocean Liners
(3) Sailing Ships

Does any one else get the feeling that our lives are getting faster and faster but we are achieving less and less with the time we save?

Blessings and Peace

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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rederob
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Thursday, April 28, 2005 - 09:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bro Hilarius

4 Wheel Drive Attachment for Ford Cars

Drives and brakes on all four wheels. More power, more traction with less fuel; less tire expense and less repair bills. Will go through mud, sand and snow without the use of tire chains on any of the wheels easier than a two-wheel drive with chains. Think what this means. It is much safer to drive, easier to control, does not skid when you apply the brakes and can be attached to any ford chassis in 3 to 4 hours time.

Prices on request.

J.F. Livingood

Inventor


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hilarius
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Thursday, April 28, 2005 - 09:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Father Rederob

Now that's a car !!!

And so well air conditioned too :-)

Who needs oil when you can so easily push it?

Here's a thought ... attach a horse?

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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archer
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Thursday, April 28, 2005 - 10:35 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I like the superconducted powerlines rederob
You can kiss the remaining silver inventories goodbye


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rederob
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Thursday, April 28, 2005 - 11:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Bro Hilarius
Was your post #707 fortuitously about travel, including jets?
Will you up the ante @ post 747 or 767?
Alas, only with hindsight could you have captured 380, with Airbus's new offering - hmm, maybe I need to check first............


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rederob
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Friday, April 29, 2005 - 06:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What can next week bring?
First, Shanghai futures market is closed.
So base metal volatility might increase, especially as inventories for copper and aluminium each dropped over 20% over the last week.
Comex is seeing continuing solid drawdowns in copper and aluminium, more than offsetting any LME increases.
Expect copper to hold steady while aluminium might perk up a touch - downside risks are low.
Nickel continues to tourniquet its speculators and has the capacity to break strongly higher on unmet demand - being short at the moment fires up the defibrillator.
Lead isn't going anywhere in particular, and zinc drawdowns should continue, albeit not at breakneck speed.
Oil needs to fall below $48 before resuming a stronger uptrend - might only be intraday, but a further shakeout is the order of the day.
On the equities front, BHP dipping intraday below $16 was the bargain of the year. Its quarterly production report was not translated into dollars, so punters took a lead from reports that noted oil was not BHP's strongpoint, while other metals output was constant to higher. The fact is that every commodity produced by BHP was higher in value over the previous quarter, and is trending to be higher in value in this current quarter. And should its Western Mining takeover proceed as planned, BHP will be an international fund favourite for years to come.
(While I own BHP it's not my favourite producer on value terms - that goes to SMY for now with OXR running a close second).

I see next week being subject to the snowballing Yuan revaluation rumour, which may see the greenback tumble. Although China's official line is unchanged, bricks are crumbling in the great wall of worry as more and more unnamed officials spin a yarn more befitting a market economy.

In summary, base metal tightness across the board will mitigate any price declines, while potential greenback weakness is more likely to restore prices at the upper end of cyclical highs.


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shaguar
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Hi rederob,

I just wondering what is going to happen if Yuan revaluated. I mean there are other possibility that can affect commodities price. The current commodities bloom was demand driven as my understanding, what if Yuan revaluation happened to decrease China's manufacturing export which eventually harmed demands of commodities from China's manufacturer?

It seems to me that as Yuan revaluated, the global economic order will have signficant changes, and maybe need period of time to re-adjust itself.


Cheers,

Shaguar.

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captain_chaza
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Friday, April 29, 2005 - 07:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Officer Bluey

The fat lady hasn't even started to sing YET!
This week still has lots to Go as I see it

The Chows Poms Frogs Krauts and the Yanks have yet to place their bets on for next week

Hmmm Lets just wait and see what happens tonite and then make up our minds?
What do you think?
Captain Chaza
capn

"Patience is Golden" 1st Officer Spids, 20th Century 1999.5

(Message edited by Captain_Chaza on April 29, 2005)


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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Friday, April 29, 2005 - 10:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Shaguar
The yuan (renminbi or people's currency) will need to be revalued or floated at some point in time as it's impossible for the skewed rates of (artificial) exchange to survive significant global currency movements.
The pace of "rumour" is heating up as the US have been applying a blowtorch at every opportunity. However, China will react to "international" pressure, not US threats. So when it chooses to unshackle the yuan, it will be to enamour itself with nations not particularly allied to the US.
In terms of the effect of revaluation, or floating, I anticipate a mixed bag.
Some assume that a higher valued yuan implies a slowdown in China's growth.
Why?
If over a billion people all of a sudden get "richer" there is every chance they can afford to buy more - that could prove to be a massive growth spurt.
Is there any evidence that a revaluation would slow the pace of growth, or change the flow of imports/exports to/from China.
American products would be more competitively priced - so what?
Can you seriously see the "made in China" labels subsumed by a plethora of "made in USA"?
The paradigm shift has occurred, and there might be some trimming around the edges when the yuan is revalued. But I don't see any doomsday scenarios eventuating.
Most economists know its just a matter of time before US twin debts get the better of it and the US economy belly flops: Revaluing the yuan might send the diver to the springboard more rapidly, that's all.
As for the global economic order needing to re-adjust itself, it's doing that as I type, and then as you read this, and will continue to do it, day in day out.

Good Captain
Train your telescope on the Fat Lady.
Let me know when she gets up.
And then make sure it's to go on stage and not to take a pee.
I dare say the Fat lady will never finish a number in my life time.
So is there a bar we could hum?


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boomer
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Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 07:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Americans are keen to have the Yuan unpegged as this would seemingly make cheap Chinese imports more expensive and maybe help their trade account situation. On the other side of the equation I guess that would also mean China would obtain imported raw materials at far cheaper prices, so in my opinion the full ramifications of a revaluation of Yuan would take some working through.

The financial implications would be huge, I believe the Chinese are holding Sh*tloads of US currency. How would that work for them if the Yuan was all of a sudden much stronger against the US currency....not too well I would imagine. Maybe someone with more knowledge in this area would like to comment. I have noted that the main objection from the Chinese regarding unpegging of their currency is that they don't believe their financial system is strong enough.

The internal growth within China is massive so whilst there may be a rebalancing of exports if the Yuan is unpegged it will be interesting to see what effect we would have at this level. To some extent manufacturing and exports have been underpinning Chinese internal growth as they provide jobs and the associated incomes that go along with jobs.

In an effort to pressure China into unpegging the Yuan there are talks within USA to introduce a 27.5% import duty on Chinese products.

The Europeans are not happy campers either. The Chinese are hurting them with cheap textiles.

I guess there are all sorts of scenario's that may play out. One thing is pretty certain the Yuan will eventually be realigned. The big question is when and how. Could they do it in steps or will they just bite the bullet and do it in one hit

Who knows, we may be witnessing a changing of the guard... a new world order. Will China take over the mantle of the superpower of the world?

Cheers
Boomer


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goldbug
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Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 08:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Boomer,

There seems to be some difference of opinion in the timing of the revaluation:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aIV4yvpYlric&refer=asia

As ready to rob stated previously:
If over a billion people all of a sudden get "richer" there is every chance they can afford to buy more - that could prove to be a massive growth spurt.

Not to mention the billion plus indian population....

Good for commodities??

Regards

GB


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rederob
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Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 12:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Inventory data tabled below shows no evidence that commodities are nearing balance, with the exception of copper. However, with copper at consistent $140 backwardation there are lots of nervous nellies out there regularly covering their short positions.
But the big news is nickel backwardation rising over $600/tonne cash3s. Cancelled warrants presently account for about half of available LME inventory and Norilsk, which usually comes out with some spare supply, is conspicuous by its absence. We are about 3 weeks without addition to LME nickel inventory which suggests severe short supply. Norilsk has had a history of manipulating prices via inventory, however its stockpile was depleted by all accounts in 2004 so perhaps its gamesmanship is behind us.

London Metal Exchange Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tonnes in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 547,600 -1850
Copper 59,975 +150
Nickel 6,240 -348
Lead 33,550 -150
Zinc 545,000 -1125

New York Futures Market Warehouse Stocks
Metal Tons in Storage Change from
previous day
Aluminum 86,045 -580
Copper 30,116 -435

In relation to yuan speculation, it's clear the rumour mill ground a fine following overnight with some interesting currency swings, ultimately leading to a stronger greenback and much stronger POG.
This latter anomaly is most interesting.
It suggests that buying into gold is the safest play in the event that the yuan is upwardly valued.
Concomitantly there was a rise in base metals last night, also on a stronger greenback.
Those looking to the charts for answers based on trends and correlations may be better of with chaos theory.


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perler59
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Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 02:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Could we see Light Sweet Crude below $43 soon?

http://nbr.com

"Market Monitor" - Donald Straszheim, president and CEO of Straszheim Global Advisors

KANGAS: With us -- when you were with us in late July, you predicted oil prices would be going a lot higher and that certainly was an accurate call. You were right on the money. But have we seen the peak in oil?

STRASZHEIM: Well, I think we probably have. We`ve been using the range of 43 to $60 on the price of a barrel of crude oil. I think quite frankly now there`s more chance that we`ll violate that $43 on the down side than violate the $60 on the up side. And the reason for that is a little bit less strength in America and appreciably less strength in Europe and in Japan, both of which I think are going to be on the knife edge of recession, as the summer progresses.


The successful traders are the ones whose tolerance for their own bad habits, runs out before their money.

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rederob
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Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 06:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



perler
As US cruises into "driving season" in a few weeks the downside of oil will be put on hold - so the question is where oil goes in the immediate term.
Some heat was taken out of the market as Bush consecutively talked about initiatives to reduce oil dependence, but nothing to reduce demand.
Straszheim notes "a little bit less strength in America and appreciably less strength in Europe and in Japan" in months ahead as his basis for a lower priced oil.
With oil, the US is still solidly in the lead with consumption triple that of China’s — 20.4 million barrels per day to 6.5 million barrels in 2004. But while oil use in the US expanded by only 15 percent from 1994 to 2004, use by China more than doubled. Having recently eclipsed Japan as an oil consumer, China is now second only to USA.
The Middle East India and SE Asia continue to significantly increase per capita oil use and people who focus on USA, Europe and Japan are missing the growth story: And it is this story that has squeezed supply to the US thereby impacting crude inventories, and this story that will compound the problems faced by the US in months and years to come.
I hope oil gets back down to around $40/bbl - am not sure it will stay there long - because if it does you are likely to hear producers say they need higher prices to justify exploration and find new reserves.
And we will probably think 'Oh, I guess $40 a barrel was not much of a strain, so long as they can keep it there it's probably OK".
What do you reckon?


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perler59
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Saturday, April 30, 2005 - 07:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,

I agree with the concept of a near term dip in the oil price. Perhaps we'll see a nice combination of weakness in the share market and weak oil prices, leading to some very good bargains in local producers?

All we have to do is pick the bottom. Should be easy.


The successful traders are the ones whose tolerance for their own bad habits, runs out before their money.

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captain_chaza
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Sunday, May 01, 2005 - 07:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Officer Bluey

All I meant was that the fat lady sings only once a week

I just thought your call was a bit early after only the 1st quarter AEST

In the Greatest Sport of All, "Sailing the Global Exchange"
and even in the 2nd Greatest Sport of All
"Aussie Rules Football" there are 4 Quaters

The fat lady only sings at the end of the week for me!!
Maybe it's just because I am a long term trader?

As you can see clearly on Friday night/ Saturday AM
The wind came in strongly after we on the ASX AEST closed early for the week's end

We probably learnt that from our Day-Go Mates as they always left work on the dot at 4.00 PM

Sometimes it's worth sticking around for the last 3 quarters?
Even if it is only to just dot the eye's, cross the t's and put some sort of closure on a Global Week at Sea

I do agree with you however
I too feel we are in for another 100 year Bull market

Not that this sort of confidence will help anyone in the long or short term

Salute and bottoms up!
Captain Chaza
capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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rederob
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Sunday, May 01, 2005 - 09:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good Captain

"Aussie Rules Football" rules, OK

That said, you would note that my post for "next week" was based on your preference for the "long term" view.
So Fat Ladies can sing to their hearts content, coz my view was not going to change.
I have only one concern going forward, and that is the extent to which a dodgy US market might impact on China's growth trends. I think worrying about the US per se is fruitless as their fate is sealed, and it's just a matter of waiting for capitulation.
Another rate rise by the Fed seems assured, and their measured pace of 25 basis points is likely to remain intact: Mostly because the Fed cannot afford to do what it needs to do - add on 50 basis points - because if they did the nation's perception would be that the economy was "out of control".

The commodity bull could wane in the second half of 2005, but may equally as not. If you go back a year and read what the experts were writing then you could only conclude that you were now dead and went to heaven!

At a global level all the metals, coal and oil are under stress. China is the stressor, and we know that. But while the eye is on the prize, India is growing at an annual rate in excess of 7% and much of SE Asia is experiencing growth well in excess of most western nations.
I continue to be of the view that analysts are reluctant to focus on Asia's economic strength, simply because the numbers have never stacked up against the marvellous merikan machine.
Many hands will make light work............. of America.







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archer
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Monday, May 02, 2005 - 08:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob
I think the reason for the focus on the U.S is that when
the U.S sneezes China and the rest of asia will catch a
mighty cold
Commodities and the markets in general look forward 6-9
months and they are saying "high probability of a serious
slowdown-possible recession in the U.S by the 1st-2nd qtr
next year
In 5-10 years this wont be a problem for China but currently
any slowing in the U.S will still affect them markedly

 
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