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Archive through September 17, 2005

Chart Forum » Commodities & Futures » Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through September 17, 2005

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ann
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Post Number: 715
Registered: 04-2004

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Friday, August 12, 2005 - 10:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rederob,

I wonder how long it will be before someone calls out...."everyone out of oil and into Uranium"?

That oil price looks as though it is getting mighty steep. Uranium's price has only really started to move. There seems to be a lot of upside as far a price potential is concerned.

I found an interesting site for Uranium prices, graphs and so forth....

http://www.uxc.com/index.html

Cheers
Ann


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rederob
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Post Number: 1227
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Sunday, August 14, 2005 - 10:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ann
if people want to jump onto the radio active band wagon, they are welcome
i'm happy to hold BHP for its diversification, including massive exposure (via actual output) at Olympic Dam to copper, uranium, gold and silver
on the oil front, things are getting worse in the US as production facilities falter in trying to maintain output at maximum capacity
remember that these facilities shut down periodically for maintenance - a luxury they cannot presently afford
$80 oil is no longer a pipe dream!
on the base metals front, copper rallied again on Friday as players noted that cancelled warrants account for almost 20% of available LME stock - offtake will send a clear message that copper's bull is far from over
meanwhile Shanghai experienced a very modest increase (under 1000tonnes) over the week, while COMEX inventory continues in freefall
A big winner during the week was nickel, closing at $15,570/tonne after tacking on over $1000
again, funds are worried that the two way flow which should strongly favour restocking, has been week on the supply side during the summer lull
despite steel industry announcements in Europe, Asia and the US that production would be cut, its impact on nickel has so far been negligible
the theme of constant oil price shocks has not hurt base metal prices yet
the pundits are wondering exactly what oil price will curb further rises in base metals
i'm hoping things will settle down a bit as without a good bout of consolidation the snakes will rule over the ladders on each roll of the die







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goldbug
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Post Number: 255
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Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 08:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



i have noted today that my favourite of all commodities .....COFFEE ....has slumped in price!!!!

Down $8.65 to $100.90 ..... i hope this new lower price is reflected in my next double cap at my local ....

The BUG


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rederob
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Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 08:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dr Bug
A teaspoon of sugar ...
offsets the decline in coffee.
All things to be kept in balance.
Check


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goldbug
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Tuesday, August 16, 2005 - 08:47 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Mr Check ...

Maybe i could do without the Sugar ..... perish the thought.
Gotta have at least 2....

The BUG


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rederob
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Wednesday, August 17, 2005 - 08:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With 6000tonnes of copper delivered into LME warehouses today we can safely say the rebalancing equation is now satisfied - for the immediate term, but not yet in Asia or the US. (LME copper inventories are back to levels of 9 months ago.)
Hopefully we will see a sharp price reversal and copper prices under $1.60 very soon.
That should provide a chance for consumers to top up again in readiness for industrial production to move into top gear. We will then get a better idea of how ramped up output of copper is meeting demand.
Nickel inventories, on the other hand, are not moving that fast as each way trade adds and subtracts - three steps up and one step down, style.
On the weekend I will put up the 5 year chart, which highlights nickel's adherence to a nice uptrend, despite some cliff-like falls along the way.
Aluminium is interesting in that LME inventories continue to hit cycle lows, while COMEX is trending up - have no idea why at this stage, so will keep eyes peeled for some plausible explanation (especially given that US economy is supposed to be humming, while Europe is off-key).
So far tonight metal chart price action can be more explained by a stronger greenback than any other factor.


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rederob
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Friday, August 26, 2005 - 06:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have been reluctant to post on copper until its price corrects.
Lo and behold, no such luck as $1.70/lb seems to have stuck like glue!
With backwardations of $220+ on copper and RSI around 57 there is still the chance of upside surprise - which is surprising given the typical sentiment running against the red metal.

On the oil front we have storm clouds, literally, over the Gulf of Mexico: Could we see this push $70 into the starter's gate as this one horse race does yet another lap.

BHP rebounded today as the mums and dads decided the analysts might be wrong ( a tribute to the Hilarius school of investing!).
I am tipping a $10b bagger for BHP's next financial year result with the highest probability glitch being a crash of the US economy. I will keep a close watch on BHP's key commodities, which now include the ultra-high margin winners of uranium and nickel, courtesy of the WMC acquisition. One of the great attributes of BHP is its ability to have "contrary" gains, eg high oil costs may reduce some of its metals revenues but clearly give a boost to its oil income, and possibly add to aluminium's price by squeezing energy costs.
Roll on $25 BHP I say.........


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rederob
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Saturday, August 27, 2005 - 11:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Oil nosedived overnight as the storm threat by-passed the Gulf.
On the weekly oil chart below notice the clear trend change from 2003 to now whereby the uplegs have moved from brief, to extended periods. My take is that the "longs" are driving the market and that funds remain content to play with oil while there is very little downside risk (or if there is, please tell me where from).



There is no doubt that oil is at the high end of its trend channel, so a further decline - perhaps to high$50s - should be considered a good near term prospect. That might give enough breathing space for a later tilt at $70 say, in October.


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rederob
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Thursday, September 01, 2005 - 11:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well, Katrina made a mockery of last Friday's close with a fatal about turn.
The repercussions of Katrina will last many weeks (maybe months) as damage assessments are just beginning - I can't see oil buckling under $60 near term, while a mid$70 rally could be a cunning play for the speculators, who probably are as shellshocked by the carnage of Katrina as everyone else.
Base metals are maintaining a consolidatory phase.
Copper will not succumb, despite warrantings at LME, Shanghai and Comex adding over 43,000tonnes (to now sit at almost 120,000tonnes) during August.
It does seem the continental imbalances of warehouse supply/demand are giving due cause for bulls to keep on buying, despite giddy copper prices in threadbare trading.
Aluminium and nickel are doing OK, while zinc was the August pinup of traders, especially with the Teck Cominco strike in play, and now New Orleans' LME warehouse in diabolicals (it has 45% of global exchange zinc in storage).


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rederob
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Saturday, September 03, 2005 - 01:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Copper rebounded on Friday to hit new contract highs, defying US economic data, but instead concentrating on Shanghai and LME exchange drawdowns. These were matched by cancelled warrants, suggesting a resilience of demand prior to the cyclical industrial upturn in the northern hemisphere.
Even Japan is now getting feisty!
I just hate it when there's no retrace after a strong upleg, but as things go, copper is refusing to weaken.
Adding to my woes is the greenback, falling off its perch and allowing base metals to climb irrespective of fundamentals!
Fortunately Monday is a US holiday and the ramifications of Katrina have a few days to work thru. Is it too much to expect markets to behave more rationally?
I wonder if the prognosticators will further ratchet-up copper's average annual price forecast?
The chart remains construcive to the upside:




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rederob
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Sunday, September 04, 2005 - 01:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Eleven months ago WTIC broke above $50/bbl and then tumbled badly, dropping some $15 in a matter of 6 weeks.
This week $70 was breached and there has been a slight dip despite what we might suspect is supportive news from the effects of Katrina.
As I have posted elsewhere, we now have geopolitical intervention in the US oil equation while, at the same time, the muddied waters from Katrina are yet to distil are clearer picturer of GOM rig, infrastructure and refinery damage.
Perhaps the joker in this mess is Bush, and his decision to relax usual requirements of international shippers and quality relating to refined fuels (most US States have highly regulated and prescriptive emission standards).
Opportunists may get a whiff of profiteering from Katrina's immediate legacy and redirect tankers short term to the US. This is outside of anything that the IEA may be putting in place.
Accordingly, I think next week will be a poor guide to longer term oil prices as too many extraneous influences come to bear.
The oil chart, nevertheless, remains poised to capture more chart space to the upside. While any massive retrace seems destined to be halted above $50.
At the local bowsers, don't expect any favours for a good while to come - anyone wanting to tip when we next see ULP under a dollar litre?




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hilarius
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Sunday, September 04, 2005 - 02:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Your Readiness

Surely we are not in the grip of a cold calculating oil cartel?

Please say there is kindness in the board rooms as we all believe ;)

If not maybe we should join them if we can't beat them?

Buy BP and Shell ???

Hilarius (willing to sell his soul to make a dollar for the Friary)


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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kate
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Post Number: 105
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Wednesday, September 07, 2005 - 01:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius,
It is with great sadness that I suggest you look at Shell.
http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=7&id=2607&setSub=1

Regards
Kate


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hilarius
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Wednesday, September 07, 2005 - 02:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Kate

My impression is that shale rarely remains an economical source of oil for long, as markets tend to re-balance in favour of oil

Perhaps this time will be different?

Is there something else about Shell that makes you sad?

The under-ground process sounds promising, especially if the resulting heat could be used to warm US, Canadian and European homes in winter

Regards

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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kate
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Wednesday, September 07, 2005 - 03:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I just feel its a pity that the govt couldn't give the same financial incentives to renewable energy companies.
I think perhaps the Queen had the right idea of heating Buckingham Palace by using underground pipes. The same system can be used for cooling, just depends how deep you place the pipes.
Food for thought.

Regards
Kate


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rederob
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Friday, September 09, 2005 - 07:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Copper prices plunged 4cents overnight (to $1.72)in a belated selldown, as no deliveries into LME have occurred in the past few days, and the ratio of cancelled warrants to exchange stock fell to a cycle low of under 3%.
This is not surprising as copper hit $1.80/lb recently and has refused to lose more than a few cents despite the only fundamental support coming from a failure of Asarco to resolve its strike and get more cathode flowing into US markets. That US markets are still tight is evident from COMEX inventories which total less than 10,000 tonnes.
A drop of copper to around $1.60 should not be a worry, and will likely see a return of consumer buying as the norther hemisphere returns to full production after the summer lull.
There is certainly little evidence that consumers have got much "spare" copper lying around, so raids on the exchange warehouses should provide a better than usual guide to the supply/demand equation over coming weeks.


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ptman
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Saturday, September 10, 2005 - 12:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi

as an aside, can anyone inform of a site that will allow me to download free historical data for commodity continuous contracts for;
- gold,
- silver,
- copper,
- light crude,

and also need USD & CRB indexes.

thanks, ptman


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rederob
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Saturday, September 10, 2005 - 02:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ptman
start here:
http://www.chartsrus.com/#PRECIOUS
this guy charges a small fee for data ($5 -$10) so might be easier to see what you want, then get the data backing the chart.
good luck


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ptman
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Sunday, September 11, 2005 - 11:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



much appreciated rederob

have contacted nick to obtain the data

ptman


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arthur_gibson
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Friday, September 16, 2005 - 07:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I did promise to say when I thought that the time had come to buy the resources again, especially Rio and BHP. I say that that time has now come. In fact Im a little late with my call.

UBS have raised their call from Neutral to Buy2 and that will pump huge amounts of their clients' money into the stocks. Rio has been given a target of $63.00 and BHP $25.00. I think that those prices will be quickly achieved.

Both of those stocks have consolidated after their results and now their upward momentum has resumed.

I think that both the banks and the resources will climb strongly over the next couple or three weeks and that combination should have an explosive effect on the index.


Arthur Gibson

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rederob
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Friday, September 16, 2005 - 09:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Mr Gibson
Yes, you are late.
You might be right, and I will be grateful if you are.
There are some interesting market drivers at play for your prognosis to be met.
First, base metal prices are not holding up well as copper is taking a well earned rest. Oil prices remain firm around $65 and are likely to remain in the $60+ range for a while, benefitting BHP but not RIO.
Given that coal and iron prices are typically long term contract, it's hard to see RIO and BHP jumping higher but for delivering at greater quantity (will take more than a few weeks to work thru).
The other key driver is the dollar exchange rate. At present the stronger prospect is for AUD to move higher against the greenback over the month. This will not bode well for RIO and BHP.
Another scenario is for our allords to move into a feeding frenzy all-round, and BHP and RIO become larger than life players.
I certainly have a $25 target for BHP over the year, but do not anticipate a rally to new highs near term.


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arthur_gibson
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Friday, September 16, 2005 - 10:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rio and BHP are UNDERVALUED compared to much of the rest of the market, with forward P/Es of only 10-11 ish. The share price has not yet caught up with the profit increases. So even if earnings stayed flat for a year, the share price must climb. But with Japan coming out of recession (Japan buys more resources from Australia than China) the upside to earnings of BHP and Rio is strong.


Arthur Gibson

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perler59
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Saturday, September 17, 2005 - 11:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Oil could be forming a Head & Shoulders or it could respect the red EMAs and start a new bull run. The next week will tell I think. (Rederob. The carnival of flowers is a bit of a frozen blow out today!)

Oil.PNG


http://sttc.net.au/~stever

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rederob
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Saturday, September 17, 2005 - 12:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



perler
great chart as per usual
sorry about the carnival - brass monkeys in the big smoke too!
have collected some fallen tree branches, but the wind is still howling so might pull up stumps for a bit
ideally want the oil retrace to fall under $60 before trend resumption
tho I note talk that high oil prices are finally having an impact, yet not in the official figures anywhere that I can tell







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rederob
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Saturday, September 17, 2005 - 05:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Mr Gibson
I ran the slide rule over BHP.
We are in interesting times.
In the immediate term base metals are dipping and in need of price momentum in order to fuel BHP's overwhelming uptrend.
As I noted above, coal and iron ore prices are locked down for now, so we are in a volume game to improve on returns.
Oil topped out and probably has another week of wallowing before markets get a grip on Katrina's longer term impact.
BHP's precious metals are not big ticket items but are trending up and will give a small boost to overall profitability.
Uranium has crept slightly higher and will continue to add to profits going forward as it is unlikely to change direction anytime soon.
So if your "undervalued" prognosis holds true, in the near term BHP will meander slowly uphill providing the greenback maintains near parity with our dollar.
First thing Monday our market will again get a fillip from a stronger DOW last Friday, and one could reasonably expect BHP to be carried along in the wake, tho not deservedly so in my view.
A more important matter to be resolved is how global production will spin out over the next few months.
I use copper as a pointer and in the US the market remains tight (skewed a little by Asarco's ongoing strike). In China, too, copper demand has been robust in a period tipped to be weak. Europe, however, has been flat and no end is yet evident despite summer production now getting into the swing of things.
We could possibly blame copper's historic high prices as a disincentive to European buyers, as LME data is showing each way action on the rise as copper prices continue to decline.
Could it be that Japan becomes the catalyst for our commodities sector to again go gangbusters into 2006: My view for now is that it has the makings, but a little too early to be definitive.
In any event, if there is to be a downside to BHP, it will come only from a massive collapse of the US economy - and I can't see Greenspan letting that happen without him pulling every economic rabbit from his large hat.
For digestion.

 
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