You need to register separately on the Chart Forum
- see Chart Forum Help
Edit Profile Profile Help Help
Forum Rules Forum Rules Advanced Help/Instructions Advanced Help
Search Last 1|3|7 Days Latest Posts Latest Posts
Search Search Forum Tree View Tree View
   

Archive through October 06, 2005

Chart Forum » Commodities & Futures » Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through October 06, 2005

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»


Author Message

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54

Post Number: 838
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Sunday, September 18, 2005 - 04:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



FYI From yahoo finance ...

BEIJING (AFP) -

China's industrial output maintained high growth in August, increasing 16 percent from a year earlier.

The National Bureau of Statistics said the output growth rate was nearly unchanged from a 16.1 percent year-on-year increase in July.

Soaring exports were a main engine for growth in China's industrial sector, with factories shipping 21.3 percent more to overseas markets last month than a year earlier, the bureau said.

In an indication of growing over-capacity, nearly two percent of last month's output failed to find any buyers, according to a statement from the bureau.

Economists have warned for months that China is building up capacity at a rate far too aggressive for potential demand, especially in certain key sectors such as autos.

Wednesday's statements seemed to confirm this view, showing that sedan output increased 46.3 percent in August from a year before.

In the first eight months of the year industrial output increased 16.3 percent, the bureau said.



Keep Smiling

Trading style :Short Term and CFD's predominantly

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1454
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, September 23, 2005 - 11:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As I write this, spot copper is a mere US$50 away from $4,000/tonne.
This is curious because LME copper inventories have been on the rise.
But less curious when one notes that COMEX warehouses continue to see declines, and Shanghai over the week parted with 9,188tonnes (over 20%) of its inventory.
With LME cancelled warrants presently representing under 4% of available stock, any large warranting could trigger a rapid and significant slide in copper's price. In the meantime, funds seem unfazed piling more and more $$s into copper, possibly as an inflation hedge.
My view is that a HUGE fall in the copper spot price is not too far away, but will quickly be met with bargain basement buying, setting in place a potential rally to sustainable spot prices of over $4,000tonne in the first quarter of 2006.

Nickel, on the other hand is setting itself for a price decline to around $12,000/tonne as LME inventories continue to build - I am assuming Norilsk nickel (the manipulator) is going straight to warehouses right now as European consumer demand has slackened considerably. Unless more cancelled warrants for nickel hit the system, next week could tack an extra 1500tonnes of LME deliveries based on the consistency of past fortnight deliveries into warehouses.

The predicament of oil prices can change with the direction of Rita, so I may wait till Sunday to see what damage/disruption shows up, and even then it could be too early to tell.







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1455
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, September 24, 2005 - 12:22 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Exactly a month ago the US market dismissed Katrina on a Friday because its threat was dissipating - the market decided the storm clouds had cleared.
On Monday the markets opened to something of a surprise: Katrina struck and not only had few seen it coming, fewer had planned to do anything about it if it did strike.
Water literally under the bridge now, but will Rita deliver the Lone Star State a category 4 strike on its principal refinery regions over this weekend?
Directional forecasts have an interesting accuracy factor: Right now there is a near perfect chance that Rita will cross the coast (somewhere), and a 30% chance that it will have some impact on Galveston.
While these "chances" are in play, some 5million gallons of refined fuels are shut down each day. And if chances don't favour Texans, oil prices will quickly surpass $75 as the bidding war for the lightest sweet crudes ratchets up the price of WTIC.
For now the speculators are not likely to sell down oil and the funds would be confident of a medium term play that saw prices higher rather than lower.
I'll stick out my neck for a reprise of $70 before a retrace to $60 _ and hope the wind change doesn't make me look too ugly.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1472
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2005 - 06:44 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A stunning night on the commodities front that returned losses of a few days ago.
Spot copper up 1.6% to close above $1.80/lb for first time amid huge warrant cancellations (10% overnight) that should see a sharp inventory decline within the fortnight
Nickel rose also by 1.6% on copper's back, with no supportive news
Aluminium was the laggard of base metals with a rise of only 1.3%, but news is improving and market tightness likely to fundamentally improve its lot going forward
Zinc up 3% and lead up 4% so Zinifex looks primed to continue its rally
Add to this a rise in WTIC of $2.50/bbl and BHP remains the key beneficiary in today's market.
What a cracker, with gold and silver also rebounding strongly.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius

Post Number: 1113
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2005 - 06:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Your Readiness

I hear on TV that oil was down because hurricane Rita was less damaging than expected, but up last night because oil production is down in the Gulf of Mexico

Is this a case of anal analysis by banal analysts?

Does anyone actually KNOW what will happen to POO ???

Your confused humble friar

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
vermante
Member
Username: vermante

Post Number: 454
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2005 - 07:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



At the end of day , Forecasting is based on the sum knowledge of the individual .

A trader can rely on his knowledge and common sense or on someones elses.

I prefer to rely on mine. In this instance I am with rederob , my best guess is that oil , gold , uranium and base metals have a lot further to run , and my portfolio will be weighted accordingly.BHP being a stand out.

Of course , I could be wrong and will pay the price . But that's trading

Cheers

Vermante


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1473
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2005 - 02:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dear Bro Hilarius
I actually to listened to spokespeople from the oil companies affected, and they are still trying to determine the full impact of Rita.
The general media only heard that things were not as bad as they could have been.
In fact things are very bad from a refining and gas perspective, and US refiner inventories will prove this very soon - then watch the oil price gush.
You see, refineries at any one time are producing an array of products, and they plan inventory builds well in advance. So right now they MUST start refining more heating oil in anticipation of the northern winter, coz if it hits too early, refining capacity won't cope. But how do they meet present gasoline demand?
As US refineries are running at full tilt to met demand at present, they never were in a situation to have capacity strained further without a major impact: I believe that ball is yet to be played.
Wonder what will happen if another hurricane starts moving into the Gulf.
The season ain't over yet.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius

Post Number: 1116
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2005 - 03:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Your Readiness

The fearless forecasts which flow from your fertile pen never cease to excite enormous interest and respect at the Friary

If only you were to post an illustrated scroll, or suggest one to the Friars, showing how we might benefit from the soaring POO by entering a suitable ASX stock

Having exited OSH and WPL the friars have no oil left in their portfolio

What should they do? Postpone all frying?

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
danielc
Member
Username: danielc

Post Number: 38
Registered: 09-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2005 - 04:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



exit osh and wpl? why? re enter at once.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1474
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2005 - 05:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



TAP into dan's advice
("Tuck in" rang no bells with pealer!)


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
hailoh
Member
Username: hailoh

Post Number: 144
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2005 - 05:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius, aeons ago you reported the wedding of (or to) WPL and BHP in the friary and a blessed union it has been.

Now you are telling us that the twain have parted! Is this true altruism - leaving crumbs for the late guest at the party, or have there been some little resources quietly growing in the family you have been silent about?

Has it been a golden silence? Will you be breaking shortbread at the altar?


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
hilarius
Member
Username: hilarius

Post Number: 1117
Registered: 04-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, September 27, 2005 - 06:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hailoh

I lied

The Mother Superior retained her WPL stake + BHP

Once again I have been sent to the cellar for penitent prayer

There I will study by candelight the best oil trades for the oil-less Friary Fund

Thanks to all for your encouragement to stick with POO

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1482
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, September 29, 2005 - 07:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Methinks the media have tarted up Rita's afterglow.
95% of GOM oil remained shut in until yesterday, exceeding 10M barrels since Rita appeared on radar over a week ago, and there is little to indicate that oil will flow from the rigs in any great quantity any time soon.
But I'm not too worried about crude supplies as the Strategic Reserve is now a piggy bank that the refiners can raid at will, for now.
More pressing is the "true" picture on refined output and the extent of damage. Eleven Gulf refineries (including from Katrina's havoc) remain closed.
Maybe the weekend will give a better picture, but for now I reckon it's quite gloomy and there is no capacity to ameliorate it from overseas sources beyond the efforts presently in place.
On the metals front copper has hit yet another contract high on fundamental strength as signs suggest demand for the metal may not be met over the next 3 months - expect a spike to $4500!


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1493
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, October 01, 2005 - 08:49 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have lost track of base metals recently, apart from knowing copper hit $4000 and has since declined some.
China and India are sucking commodities from everywhere and Japan's engine room is gathering some steam: So irrespective of any near term movements, the next 3-6 months look like keeping prices relatively high in the case of copper, aluminium, lead and zinc; but drifting downwards in the case of tin and nickel (the latter suffering from Norilsk deliveries directly into LME warehouses rather than scamming the market via secretive inventory builds).
Two other price drivers relate to energy costs and greenback movements. We know that energy costs are impacting some producer margins but overall remarkably little price movement appears attributable to this factor.
On the other hand, greenback strength has often curtailed rallies that could have driven base metals higher on fundamentals. Euro/USD charts suggest we are likely to see a reversal within weeks, meaning a weaker greenback could see commodities generally end the year stronger than they started - that's my general take.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1498
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 07:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Oil is below $64 as crude supplies ramp into overdrive from OPEC and remove any worries about shortages: However, refined output in US remains constrained by Rita/Katrina outages - around 10% of refining capacity still offline.
The longer oil stays over $60/bbl the greater the chance of a spike over $70 on adverse event.
Copper drawdowns of almost 7,000 tonnes in 2 days with little resupply may be a pointer to this market preparing to break out to even greater highs. A few more days data is needed to see if this is the making of a new trend or a very brief anomaly: In any event, US copper inventories are approaching dangerously short levels and offtake from LME will be required in the very near future to make up for inability to supply.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
kate
Member
Username: kate

Post Number: 133
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 01:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



In the hope that today is a short lived correction what should go in the shopping basket? I'm thinking of buying more OXR and some BSG as a gold + silver play. Also thinking of buying BPT.
Any other suggestions?


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1500
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 02:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



kate
I am watching OSH closely - strong support near $3.65.
Would not go past LHG as the other goldie stock - it's sold down too heavily given gold prices have been somewhat unchanged for the past week in AUD terms.
My view is that the US market cannot hold up the greenback much longer, and a reversal is soon due - I expect it will be well underway in November: That might be too far away for the daytraders, but one can prepare a position based on strategy, and implement the strategy when the signals are given or as the trend is unambiguous.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54

Post Number: 884
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 02:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ZFX
OST
ARQ
SIG
SFE


Keep Smiling

Trading style :Short Term and CFD's predominantly

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
kate
Member
Username: kate

Post Number: 134
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 02:55 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,
You mean have a plan in place should the greenback take a major tumble? So load up on gold, silver and oil stocks? Its actually a smart move because sooner or later its going to happen. OSH, OXR, LHG, what else?
I've been waiting to get back into OSH so this is a great opportunity.

Ingot 54
Why do you like SIG?


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ingot54
Member
Username: ingot54

Post Number: 886
Registered: 05-2004

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 03:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SIG has EPS up around 50% last two reporting periods, and today has been successfully hiding out in the health sector - still popular despite the correction in other sectors.

The chart tells the story - gentle, strong, trending, with mild corrections every few days, to insulate against major profit-taking.

Today, SIG has risen 28 cents against the trend.


Keep Smiling

Trading style :Short Term and CFD's predominantly

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1501
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 04:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



kate
2 years ago I would have cautioned against such a plan as the US usually drove the markets and betting against it was not too wise.
Commodities are, however, mostly denominated in US dollars. So if the greenback tumbles commodity prices can rise, particularly while China, India, Russia and Brazil have organic growth factors that will maintain momentum despite US-centric news.
I like OSH as the oiler pick as I see China very capable of head hunting this New Guinean company.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
kate
Member
Username: kate

Post Number: 135
Registered: 04-2005

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, October 05, 2005 - 04:41 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob,
Plans are good to have even if they are just put in the bottom draw.

Kate


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
captain_chaza
Member
Username: captain_chaza

Post Number: 1510
Registered: 02-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 12:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Katie

All export contracts I know of are written in US Big Bucks
If the Big Buck falls so does the rest

God Bless America!

capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1503
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 09:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy
A view that reflects a small proportion of events is an unwise plan.
If the US dollar declines in value then commodities, which are predominantly denominated in US dollars, will become cheaper in other currencies. Thus, Oz producers translating profits back into local currency will do very well.
It is a different issue entirely if the USD declines due to the US economy collapsing and brings about a global decline in world markets: But that event is not likely near or medium term.
While contracts may be written in "Big Bucks" they are also often hedged at currency or delivery prices, and the hedge book is a vital part of assessing any company's profitability where significant spot or currency variations are at play.
There is today a very strong chance that US global domination of market events will NOT translate into a pandemic, as the global engine room is shovelling more coal into Asian furnaces than ever before.
Those that continue to hold to US-centric views will ultimately pay the price.







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rederob
Member
Username: rederob

Post Number: 1505
Registered: 10-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 11:02 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



If one obeyed the gap filling rule, then OSH should decline to at least $3.20 in order to fill the void between June 28 and July 19.
Today's announcement by BHP to not proceed with WMC's plans for gas supply to Olympic Dam will take a while for the funds to ingest so I will play the waiting game with $3.20 in mind.

 
Other Threads  
Last PosterPostsPagesLast Post
COMMODITIES SECTORvisions13 27-Feb-17  12:58 pm
OIL WARS - Coming to a Theatre near you.stoian17 16-Jun-08  02:14 am
Commodity warrantssumamura16-Jul-07  12:41 am
Commodities - base metals/oil Archive through January 22, 2007kate25 22-Jan-07  07:32 am
Commodities - base metals/oil Archive through December 21, 2006captain_chaza25 21-Dec-06  02:10 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil Archive through December 07, 2006kate25 07-Dec-06  01:27 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil Archive through November 18, 2006rederob25 18-Nov-06  09:23 am
Commodities - base metals/oil Archive through July 27, 2006dydavo25 27-Jul-06  08:16 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil Archive through June 05, 2006thommo7825 05-Jun-06  04:09 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil Archive through May 23, 2006smallworld25 23-May-06  06:22 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil Archive through May 19, 2006captain_chaza29 19-May-06  03:44 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil Archive through November 09, 2005thommo7828 09-Nov-05  04:11 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil Archive through September 17, 2005rederob25 17-Sep-05  05:14 pm
Commodities - base metals/oil Archive through August 11, 2005rederob25 11-Aug-05  08:19 pm

Threads by Last Post Time:

First Previous 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 Next Last

Administration Administration   Log Out Log Out    

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»