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Archive through November 09, 2005

Chart Forum » Commodities & Futures » Commodities - base metals/oil » Archive through November 09, 2005

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kate
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Post Number: 136
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Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 11:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm waiting to see the results of the fallout too. Might buy LHG though, will see how the rest of the day pans out.
Kate


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kate
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Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 02:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I've sold everything and will wait this out. Back to the planning board to sort out a "to buy" list.

Kate







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rederob
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Thursday, October 06, 2005 - 11:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



LME warehouses have reported strong inventory drawdowns for all base metals tonight; not surprisingly copper is again leading the pack, losing 3,475 tonnes yesterday while COMEX dropped 380 tonnes (yet another cycle low hit with only some 4,500tons now available for delivery).
With US markets about to open in a few minutes it will be interesting to see if the tripple whammy of lower oil prices, weaker greenback and stronger demand move the metals north.


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hailoh
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Friday, October 07, 2005 - 07:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day Rederob.

As a change of pace, have a look at an agricultural commodity: wheat. By my reading, international wheat stocks are near an all time low, and the rains earlier this year should augur well for our home crop. There is some exposure on the ASX through AWB- the chart looks pretty healthy so far with a retracement to the 20WMA and holding at support.


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rederob
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Friday, October 07, 2005 - 08:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hailoh
Thank you for a vote of possible confidence in me - but I regret I am not on top of base metals yet.
So to add food to the table would simply mean I was a glutton for punishment, and I am already married.
In case you are interested in this sector there are apparently also excellent trading opportunities in the futures sector.
It was always my ambition to retire to a Pacific island, raising cattle with my sons, and watching simultaneously the setting and rising sun: You know, a place where the sun's rays meet.


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rederob
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Saturday, October 08, 2005 - 12:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Copper continues to climb - today's newswire item:
DJ Comex Copper Review: Another Contract High On Fund Buying

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Fund and speculative buying enabled high-grade copper futures to hit a fresh life-of-contract high in New York Friday for the fifth day in a row.
Traders noted there didn't appear to be any fresh copper-industry news behind the move but suggested that certain ongoing supply concerns - such as strikes and recent inventory drawdowns - continued to underpin the market.
The most-active December copper contract settled up 255 points at $1.8085 per pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. March copper rose 250 points to $1.7270.
December hit a fresh contract high of $1.8090 late in the day.
"We had fund buying," said a floor trader. "People have an idea that we're going to see $2. We keep hitting new contract highs every day. It looks very bullish.
"Eventually, a correction is going to come true. But I think we're going to have to see $2 before it happens," the trader said.


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rederob
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Sunday, October 09, 2005 - 10:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



oil
going down
but not out
at least not yet




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thommo78
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Sunday, October 09, 2005 - 09:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hailoh i read your post re global wheat stocks and prices. I watch this market every day so it's good to see someone else on this forum is interested as well. I don't know if the AWB is leveraged to global wheat prices .. more to domestic prospects i reckon (ie the health of the Aussie wheat crop). For example if global wheat prices were very high but the Aussie crop was up the creek, this wouldn't auger well (excuse the pun) for AWB. Our wheat crop is in pretty good nik and it's sp may perform well in coming months...

If you want exposure to wheat then as rederob says the futures market would be your best bet.

If you have an interest in the wheat market (CBOT wheat, KCBT wheat) we could start another thread .. let me know your thoughts.


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hailoh
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Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 09:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thommo78 I don't trade the futures markets - it keeps me occupied trading CFDs at present. I picked up on wheat during a phone conversation with a funds manager in Hong Kong who has been very bullish on commodities for a long time, and who made the point that there were promising prospects for some of the staple non-metal/oil items. I looked and agreed and then sought some collateral exposure in the CFD list. So far so good.


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tryhay
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Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 10:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Guys,

Another option to get into "staple non-metal/oil items" is the AWB Ltd. Cropping is approaching (as well as dividend) and the indicators: MA, OBV, & MACD are just heading in the right direction - even with the current events.

I Hold.


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rederob
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Tuesday, October 11, 2005 - 11:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



tryhay
hailoh suggested that a few posts earlier - so maybe you guys are on a good thing

i just came back to say that COMEX copper warehouses had only 3677 short tons available for delivery and at present rate of draw (473 tons yesterday) would be empty in a few weeks

LME warehouse draws are gathering pace, and as cancellations are outstripping restocking by about 2:1 copper prices are destined for further highs in coming weeks. Another week's data should settle the debate over whether supply can meet demand this quarter, but so far the numbers suggest it's way short.

nickel continues to wane, tho a hefty cancellation yesterday could trim downside freefall over the next few days - China's reluctance to import nickel due to a stainless steel glut has taken its toll: the question remains as to whether this is a medium or longer term problem for nickel


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archer
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Post Number: 1042
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Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 08:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tryhay
We are already on the job
AWB thread started here over a month ago
The foodstuffs are next to feel the wrath of inflation
https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/8/590628.html


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archer
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Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 09:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A snip from Manfinancial Commodity report this morn-------
---------
"Without getting into the relative standing of world grain ending stocks, consumption patterns and other analysis, we will make the following statement: the influence of high energy prices is going to make stellar grain production more difficult to come by. Given ongoing global growth, rising inflationary expectations and the push from oil prices, we suspect that soybean oil, wheat, corn, cotton, and silver prices will see significant price gains in the coming year!"

Bring it on i say


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kate
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Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 09:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Archer, I don't understand, it sounds very contradictory to me.

Kate


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archer
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Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 09:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"the influence of high energy prices is going to make stellar grain production more difficult to come by"
Yes he should have used the word cheap instead of stellar


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ken
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Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 08:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Does anyone have any idea why the Nickel stocks took off today, when the price they get is falling?

JBM 5.2%

MRE 7.3%

WSA 5.5%

FXR 5.26%


Ken


Price is the leader of the market crowd. (Elder)
Members of the crowd follow the leader and experience the same emotions as each other.
To be independent of the crowd we must not change our behaviour with price.

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rederob
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Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 09:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ken
hoping for inspiration?
even my little battler - SMY - went up
last night there was a massive cancellation (726 tonnes or 5.4% of LME inventory) that may have got the market wondering if more was to come
nickel has been impacted in the past 6 months by China NOT buying this commodity at anywhere near previous rates
plus, Norilsk, which has in the past hoarded inventory and manipulated prices, seems to be delivering direct into LME's Vlissingen and Rotterdam warehouses
we know that if demand for nickel does gather pace, there is very little "excess" inventory just lying around to take up the slack right now
the other explanation for nickel stocks to rise is technical - nickel has an rsi of 28 and at this oversold level, combined with a high cancellation yesterday, maybe they are lining up for an early strike


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captain_chaza
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Wednesday, October 12, 2005 - 11:24 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ahoy Clever Officer Kennie

The $ AUD ?? Maybe??
and it's about Bloody Time we stood up for our own currency anyway
Don't you think??

capn


"While we stop and think, we often miss our opportunity." Publilius Syrus, 1st century B.C.

"I believe the future is only the past again, entered through another gate."
Sir Arthur Wing Pinero 1893

"There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: When he can't afford it, and when he can." Mark Twain, 1897





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kate
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Friday, October 14, 2005 - 08:04 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Have just finished listening to a program on resources, some guy called Peter Harrington (I think)was talking about Cu saying the hedge funds were buying it up at a rate of knots. Apparently Cu rarely heads over the 3000 mark never mind 4000 and its a case of commodity buyer beware.
This could all be old news to everyone else but just thought I'd mention it anyway.


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rederob
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Friday, October 14, 2005 - 09:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



kate
He was probably right.
Copper was at an all time contract high last week and, being seriously overbought, succumbed to a thoroughly overdue correction.
Ingrid Sternby from Barclay Capital has predicted copper price movements better than anyone - and the future looks equally bright: link to her recent Cochilco Seminar presentation of 9 September 2005:
http://www.cochilco.cl/prensa/presentaciones/seminario_092005/ingrid_sternby.pdf


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rederob
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Saturday, October 22, 2005 - 12:29 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



3 month copper peaked at an all time contract high of slightly over $4000/tonne on Thursday, and was sold off sharply and quickly thereafter.
A bear trap is being set again as the technicians and fundamentalists battle on future direction.
Autumnal industrial production is presently sucking copper from exchange warehouses at a rate of knots.
How much spare inventory major consumers have available will be tested over the next quarter - there's not a lot left in European exchange warehouses and a paltry 3k tonnes in COMEX warehouses.
Cap this off with a rate of drawdown that will see LME empty before Xmas at present rates, and SHFE warehouses barely able to balance their books.
How much headroom is there for copper?
Not a clue - it's not been up at these levels before and was NEVER supposed to get to $4000.
Perhaps the question lies with what Chinese manufacturers are able to pass on by way of higher material costs into finished goods prices.
But the other market sector relates to national infrastructure projects, especially electricity generation capacity - is China able to stop buying copper and jeopardise growth?
Whatever the near and medium term outcomes, the longer term will see copper at significantly higher rates in 2006 than any forecasters predicted at the beginning of this year.
And remember that the greenback remains for now at a medium term cyclical high and is mooted by the majority of analysts to turn down soon. Should this occur the likelihood of copper at least maintaining its records highs will be strong.
A test of $4500 spot comes next - won't guess the odds but copper is THE industrial metal - not may substitutes for its key uses.


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thommo78
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Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 10:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rederob i notice in a few of your posts you talk about the USD (rightly so given it's importance for commodity prices). thought i'd give my two penith worth. The USD appears to have broken it's sharp downtrend on the monthly continuous chart after it bounced off solid long-term technical support at 80.00. As you say it is presently at a medium term cyclical high .. i agree and think for now the USD is range-bound between 80.00 and 92.50 (bearish divergence between the weekly price and MACD suggest test of support at 80.00..?). This could be enough to propel commodities to more lofty heights. If it can break through resistance at 91.00ish however, then 100.00 (50% retrace from 120.00-80.00 fall) would seem a formality. We are at an important juncture.




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rederob
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Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 11:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thommo
Great stuff!
As you point out, which way it breaks will be very important.
Trying to pick the "when" is most elusive.
My view is that the factors favour a resumption of the primary downtrend.
US current account deficits are my principal basis for the view.


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hilarius
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Sunday, October 23, 2005 - 01:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thommo

Fascinating

I've never seen a clearer example of a head and shoulders pattern ... but they are supposed to form tops (or bottoms), and to be ignored unless appearing as a top (or as a bottom only when inverted)?

On one view a Fed hard line on interest rates should boost the US dollar, and if the oil price has been (temporarily) overdone the pressure on inflation from that source should ease?

An excellent case to "watch this space" for a clearer direction whereupon Father Rederob can be relied upon to ring the appropriate bells!

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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thommo78
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Tuesday, November 08, 2005 - 12:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



USD looking strong...

continuous chart:



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jwhat
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Tuesday, November 08, 2005 - 01:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thommo,

your comment was
**********************************************
Rederob i notice in a few of your posts you talk about the USD (rightly so given it's importance for commodity prices).
**********************************************

Could you please shed some light on why this is so. I have thought about it and am not sure. Is it the fact that if the USD drops, US commodity exports rise, since it is cheaper to a bag of Copper from the US, and hence increase demand?


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thommo78
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Wednesday, November 09, 2005 - 04:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



jwhat my understanding is that if the USD strengthens, then the price of commodities (denoted in US Dollars) will appear relatively more expensive in foreign currency terms.

For example if 1 swiss franc is worth USD0.80 and the price of copper is trading at USD200/tonne then the copper price will be 250 swiss francs/tonne. If suddenly 1 swiss franc is worth USD0.60 (ie the USD has strengthened) then the price of copper is now worth 333 swiss francs/tonne.

The initial reaction will therefore be for the USD price to adjust lower. I'm a bit hazy on all this myself .. someone else may be better explaining.







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thommo78
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Wednesday, November 09, 2005 - 04:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



sorry meant USD200/pound (now that would be cheap copper at USD200/tonne)

 
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