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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Let's Grow - Fertilizer Stocks

Chart Forum » Stocks - USA » Let's Grow - Fertilizer Stocks

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paddy
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For you who are holding Potash Corp :

PotashCorp Should Benefit from India/Belarus Contract

Rumors that the Belarusian Potash Company [BPC] is offering a 6-month contract price of $600 per tonne of delivered potash in negotiations with India, could have positive implications for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., according to RBC Capital analyst Fai Lee.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/67685-potashcorp-should-benefit-from-india-belar us-contract?source=feed


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paddy
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Looks like the rumor of $600 per tonne for potash was on the light side based on todays report and the proposed increases in both iron ore and met coal have nothing on the projection for potash .

"Potash, a form of potassium, may reach $1,000 a ton ``rather fast'' because world output trails demand by 1.2 million tons, Oleg Petrov, sales chief for Berezniki, central Russia-based Uralkali, told investors today on a conference call."

Link : http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=avZa4TW9aibQ&pid=20601082







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paddy
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Looks like food prices are going to see an adjustment in the future . Fertilizer companies must be very happy with this increase .



Wednesday, Apr 16, 2008

PotashCorp announces $400-a-tonne price rise in 2008 Canpotex-Sinofert deal

The contract negotiated by Canpotex Ltd., the offshore marketing agency for the Saskatchewan potash industry, was announced Wednesday morning by Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (TSX:POT).

In addition to PotashCorp, Canpotex represents Agrium Inc. (TSX:AGU) and Mosaic Co. (NYSE:MOS).
http://www.mytelus.com/money/news/article.do?pageID=ex_business/home&articleID=2 905124


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efficiency
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Have a quick glance at a real chart. You're two years too late to the party.

News is by design as to BOTH content and timing. The purpose being to get the desired response.

It's a time-tested adage to buy on the rumor/rumour sell on the news.

You're also overlooking the most blatantly simple of concepts that someone(s) is selling INTO strength.


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paddy
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efficiency : Guess we are on different time planes . I was just posting information - not suggesting a Buy or Sell .

My chart / records for POT show :

Date Open High Low Close Vol Hypothetical Action

March 10 153.71 154 142.23 143.03 10 Buy

March 14 162.40 165 156.40 160.79 9.1 Sell

March 20 140.00 147.4 136.5 144.26 15.98 Buy

April 16 ---------------195------------- Sell the Gap

Gave returns based on Close figures Mar 10-14 $17 / share

and March 20- April 16 $50 / share . Who needs two years ?

Perhaps it will continue to climb but I will wait for a correction. Note Volumes in millions .


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paddy
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For those interested another article re Fertilizer stocks from "Seeking Alpha".

"12 Fertilizer Companies Sprinting Ahead"

http://seekingalpha.com/article/72654-12-potash-companies-sprinting-ahead?source =feed


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paddy
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For your info :

Materials IPO: Intrepid Potash Competes with Mosaic

http://seekingalpha.com/article/72991-materials-ipo-intrepid-potash-competes-wit h-mosaic?source=feed

Intrepid Potash (IPI) is the largest US-based producer of potash – potassium chloride.


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paddy
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These stocks must have been given good "fertilizer" . Seems like no stopping them - for now .

Intrepid Potash - "explosive growth today" Up almost $18 today.

http://www.reportonbusiness.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080422.wintrepid0422/BNSto ry/SpecialEvents2/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20080422.wintrepid0422


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globalreverb
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By now Mr efficiency should have a trace of egg on his shirt sleeve regarding his comments on POT.
In three trading days POT has risen darn near 10%
not bad for a stock that has been subjected to "selling into strength".
I was stupid enough to (buy the fact)POT options, which are at present up 279%
My AGU options are up 421%.
I certainly don't mind being " late for the party" if the only penalty is an increased bottom line.
Cheers, Rob


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paddy
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efficiency: The GAP was a "continuation /
breakaway Gap " complete with increased volume . Eventually there will be a correction back to Support - since January that has been the EMA 50 .

Globalreverb: IMO Didn't need your comment re post of efficiency . Glad you made good . Always nice to leave something on "table" for next person/investor/speculator.


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paddy
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globalreverb: Forgot to mention this AM :

" The Market giveth and the Market taketh "[sometimes with a vengeance]

POT down $11.66 on almost identical volume as yesterday [ 200,000 less]. I may be wrong but I don't think we have seen the end of this correction .


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paddy
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Globalreverb: My last posting didn't reflect final numbers - was an additional 750,000 shares that brought the Close up to $204.12 . Still down $10.71 . What it did is the volume increased with the sell off - not a bullish sign .

For me , yesterdays candlestick was a warning that bore fruit today with a beautiful bearish engulfing red candlestick .

Hope you got out today .


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globalreverb
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Paddy, thanks for the concern.

Out on my limit order ( more by luck than design )which was above the market.
I view the pullback as another opportunity to re-enter.
Long term my feeling is that fertilizer stocks have some way to go. Up that is !
Appreciate the media links you have provided.
Cheers, Rob


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paddy
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This "news" is probably already priced into the stock as it appears that the correction is continuing today .

Record profits for Potash Corp.


Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. said Thursday first-quarter profit almost tripled, as surging demand for grains around the world triggered higher fertilizer prices.

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.html?id=47cae4dc-e302-4999-94bf-13 1dae683cf2&k=15000


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paddy
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Globalreverb : As they say " Keep your powder dry".

Today POT did what the candlesticks and parabolic sar suggested could happen . I guess I should really say my read of the chart . The correction has just begun, unless there is some "news" to reverse the downward course . Stoch has turned downward which also suggests more downward action . The almost double volume is definitely NOT a BULLISH sign. As I see it there are several way points that could act as support :

Midpoint Bollinger band - approx. 185

EMA 50 approx 169

SMA 100 approx 155

LB now approx 150

Based on previous chart action, the drop, if it goes all the way, to the SMA 100 [ has acted as support on other deep corrections ] could be swift and savage .

After hours trading - stock price down to 191.49


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globalreverb
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Paddy, I'm not one to doubt your charting skills. I can only add that " gaps " beckon to be filled, and there's one immediately below on the POT chart.

Fib retrace has $176.00 as the 50% mark. So your remarks above coupled with a low close(after hours market) which I'm not privy to, and that high volume could see it back down around $180.00. This level could present an excellent buying level.

The positives with this stock are that it has just reported a nett income of $1.74/share, up 0.62cents/share from last year, and beating analysts' estimates.
Another, is that it has hardly moved at current levels from the hefty product price increase granted recently.
So I don't think you can keep this or any fertiliser Co down for too long.
I was very tempted to jump back in at the $190.00 mark last night, however I didn't, and am looking forward to buying into more weakness if it occurs.
I can't complain about the stock so far. It has been one of the best performing stocks in my portfolio for as long as I can remember.
Keep up the "super sleuthing". (pun intended)
R


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paddy
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Globalreverb: I'm no expert on charts .If I was I wouldn't have been wrong yesterday and I'd be able to walk on water.Will post thoughts re POT later.

From publication : Potash stocks will continue to climb / split and regain climbing .

Canada, unusual among developed countries in the importance of natural resources and raw materials, now ranks with the world's top five producers of 14 mineral commodities and leads in the production of uranium and potash, the scarcest of the three main raw materials of fertilizer (along with nitrogen and phosphates).

Its unique natural bounty could help it survive a US downturn. Between 2002 and 2006, the US share of Canadian exports fell from a peak of 84 percent to 79 percent. During the first seven months of 2007, this share declined to 76 percent.

In the five years since it gained entry to the World Trade Organization, during the same period Canada-to-US trade has shrunk, China's imports have grown substantially. It's forecast to import nearly USD1 trillion worth of resources in 2007, tripling the USD300 billion of 2002. China's demand for natural resources has driven this rapid growth and has boosted prices for Canada's exports of oil, gas, metals, minerals and farm products.

Between 2002 and 2007, Canada's exports to China rose from CAD4 billion to nearly CAD8 billion. And there's no sign that trend will end soon: The most recent data for 2007 indicate a 43 percent year-to-date increase from the same period in 2006, a rate of growth faster than any other G-7 country.

As long as Chinese demand keeps commodity prices high, the Canadian economy and the loonie will stay aloft, and the Great White North will ride out a US slowdown.

Potash, better than any other resource, illustrates Canada's good fortune. The country's potash reserves, at around 75 billion tons, are among the most extensive and the richest in the world. In 2001, the country accounted for about a third of global output. The worldwide leader's share has grown to more than 40 percent on rising demand from China and growth in biofuels production.

Increasing demand for potash in China is due largely to the agricultural industry in the country, which uses 54 percent of China's total land area. Intense farming robs the soil of nutrients, and a good fertilizer is needed to keep crops growing"

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4464.html

Of course food prices will go sky high and hoarding will / has begun. Did you see that Costco and Sams are restricting / limiting quantities of rice that can be purchased ?


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paddy
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Globalreverb : Stock price action of POT back to normal after putting on show of volatility . Look for it, in my opinion to test back to at least the EMA 50 [ now $171± ] and perhaps there will be a touch to the LBB [± 155] .

Then it will climb again probably to a new High.


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paddy
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From Bloomberg :

Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., the world's largest producer, may rise by half to $300 a share, according to Fai Lee, an RBC Capital Markets analyst in Vancouver. Russia's OAO Uralkali may add as much as 16 percent, said Mikhail Stiskin, an analyst at Troika Dialog in Moscow. Intrepid Potash Inc., the largest U.S. maker, gained more than 70 percent after its initial public offering on April 22. That pushed the price to 200 times 2007 earnings, almost the valuation of networking- equipment maker Cisco Systems Inc. at the height of the Internet stock boom in 2000.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aCqv16nFuLeM&pid=20601109


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paddy
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From Globe and Mail :

Today's agriculture boom is starting to look a lot like the technology boom of the late 1990s, according to Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup – and that suggests a bust can't be far away.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080430.WBmarkets20080430134 821/WBStory/WBmarkets


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paddy
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From The Globe and Mail re POT and AGU :

"But the lower P/Es mean that those targets have been trimmed. In the case of Potash Corp., his new target is $235, down from $250 previously. In the case of Agrium, his new target is $98, down from $105 previously."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080501.WBmarkets20080501134 442/WBStory/WBmarkets


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paddy
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Thought I had posted here in the AM.

efficiency : Haven't posted re POT because I'm waiting for the real retracement to occur. Also price action is somewhat volatile. Looking for a test back to EMA50 [ now @ $184.56 ] or the LBB [ now @ $181.83 ]. From there , based on Weekly chart, stock price could correct to $165 - $170 .

In your posting what did you mean by "other words"? I have no idea as to what you were implying . If there is something wrong please inform me .

Regards,

Paddy


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efficiency
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Wrong?

A single word that invites a LOT of typing. Since I have no position, I don't have the inclination. But.....I will touch on some sailient points (in bullet form).

1. What you do with your money is YOUR business. But you seem to be compelling others to join in because the water is fine. Invites some counter thinking.

2. There seems to be a lot of flitting from indicator to indicator to indicator. What's the flavor of the week?

3. There's a distinction between a company and a stock. I personally don't care what companies do because I speculate in stocks. You apparently feel that potash ( the compound not the company) is the panacea for world hunger. I reside in the state of Nebraska, the largest corn producing area in the world. However, our license plates used to indicate "The Beef State". Beef is an indirect recipient of fertilizer. I doubt anywhere in the entire state is potash used. Most grain elevators have fertilizer captives. Chemicals of choice are liquid nitrogen and/or anhydrous ammonia. Potash would be a cheap (though not so cheap recently) alterative. One can over-fertilize grain crops. Fuel and water play more imporant roles in grain production. IF fuel becomes prohibitive (or water scarce) fertilizer won't have a role. In other words planting is elastic. NEWS is to orchestrate the distribution of paper. Period.

4. It would appear you're not looking at a WIDE enough chart. Uncharacteristic for someone that mentions WEEKLY moving averages and Weinstein stages. In my OPINION, the stock is in a distribution top. Tops can take many forms, such as multi-year trading ranges with no NET progress or blow off tops with fast descent. What I'm really trying to say is the risk/reward is highly skewed. Cleveland Cliffs is another one trick pony in a distribution. Iron ore, nothing to do with ag. Has a lot to do with the merchandising of paper.

5. High volume = public. Public = weak hands. Stated another way, there's ALWAYS somebody on the other side of the trade.

6. It's better to fall in love with a woman than a stock. There's 9,000+ US stocks to choose from. Virtually all fluctuate. But not all are in la la land.

7. "The real retracement to occur" is reminiscient of "it's different this time".

8. I'm tired of typing so I'll leave you to your own devices. Besides, I gotta do laundry to get the egg off my shirt.


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paddy
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efficiency :

1] I could take offense at your implying that I am trying to get people to invest in POT or any other fertilizer stock but I won't . I thought this Forum was a place where one could express opinions. I thought that investors were intelligent people capable of making their own decisions or if not able to do so then they would go to a licensed broker, investment counselor, whatever for advice in investing in the Markets.

2] You have a problem with technical indicators . Variety is the spice of life. Life is one big learning experience and that includes technical analysis of the Market. You are free to ignore my "wanderings" I'm not forcing you to read the posts.

You have a nice day now .

Paddy


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paddy
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efficiency : To continue with reply to your post.

#4] Take a good look at the weekly chart for POT . Since last July the price has risen steadily with pauses and small corrections which are normal. The chart profile could be described as a "staircase" .

The averages EMA or SMA have been rising at about a 45° angle with 18 above 35 but all below the Price except on the corrections where Price dropped below the 18.

IMO, stock is still in Stage II with another correction in the works.

Paddy


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paddy
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efficiency : Back again to answer one more of your points.


Re # 3 : Yes it is a known fact that most of the crop growing soils in Nebraska are not deficient in Potassium and corn needs nitrogen .

However, perhaps to your disbelief, even though, as you stated "the largest corn producing area in the world" Nebraska is not the only place in the world where they grow corn . Are they still largest area? Some of those other areas , like China, have soils depleted in Potassium and need vast quantities - like in millions of tons . Have a read of this ;

Soil Potassium and Potassium
Fertilizer Use in Northern China

http://209.85.141.104/search?q=cache:ZZ3oyt5GLOAJ:www.ppi-ppic.org/ppiweb/bcropi nt.nsf/%24webindex/B2F2A717CCE5EE6E852568F700667035/%24file/i97-1p16.pdf+use+of+ potassium+fertilizer&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=9&gl=mx&client=firefox-a

Paddy


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efficiency
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I had been ignoring your wanderings. You asked for a response. You got one. You can take offense if you want.

Variety may be the spice of life, but it's not too consistent. More like massaging data. But, variety can serve as filters.

I give little credence to Weinstein "stages" but I give a helluva lot of credence to a NYSE specialist, and his ability to gap, induce, and halt. All accordance with his inventory posture and merchandising agenda. I give NO credence to news.

I did have a look a chart. That's my point. A chart since inception. Here, you have a look:Potash

Pardon the lack of clarity, but this site limits pixels. I have every confidence you (and any other reader) would get the gist.

Once again, I'll leave you to your own devices. Have fun with it. Ya never know, you might get a 40 point blow off top one day.


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paddy
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This is solely for information only . Nothing else . No esta para distrbución a gringos feos.

BHP thinks Potash is important .

" Rush of juniors to join boom suggests new mine possible "

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=537041

Regards,

Paddy


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efficiency
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I wrote I'd leave YOU to your own devices, but it would appear you're toying with me.

"Nothing else"? Sissss.

To reiterate, every tick; not some, not most, EVERY tick on the tape has................. a seller.

That seller is either the specialist (or related market maker) out of inventory; an insider, an institution, an indivdual investor, an individual trader (of whatever timeframe), or a short seller. With the exception of the latter, each is willing to incur a TAXABLE event at that point in time. Sales are either at a profit, breakeven, or loss. That's it. And the more volume, naturally, the more seller are coming out of the woodwork willing to both pay taxes (if profitbable) and neturalize exposure. Completly unless scaling out.

In contrast, any buyer is incurring FRESH risk (at least for that increment). Fresh. No cushion and most definetly one primary motive, namely an expecation of higher prices (yet to materialize). Any buyer now, with the exception of the specialist (who's most married to the stock), is a little late to party, and quite possibly highly impressionable. I personally wouldn't characterize them as smart money. But......."they" indeed serve a purpose. Wall Street requires such to feed the machine.

The most recent, to use your words "real" reaction was two years ago and lasted for the better part of 2006. You don't strike me as having the paitience to weather such a stall.

From eh.........Wyckoff/Warren/Weinstein stage II markup standpoint, there would have been two appropriate price points/time frames to enter and maximize profit. Both years ago. Yes, one could have joined in the party anytime thereafter. I suspect you were one of them. Nevertheless, the chart speaks for itself to all but the rosiest colored (oops I mean coloured) glasses.

As for booms, they "fall down and go boom" Can you say sustainability? What about industry rotation?

As an unrelated sidenote, since 1949, after about 15 years of lobbying (1934 Securites & Exchange Act), NYSE specialists became exempt from Federal Reserve Regulations T and U). Put many arrows in their quiver. One being a tax-segregated omnibus account.

I suspect the specialist in POT established one in early 2004 and..........perhaps a second one in late 2006. Thus influencing his bids. For years. In some case decades. Once he unwinds both, there is no reason to hold the stock up. IF I can correctly assess that transistion, that's when I start to play. The beauty of a short isn't the maximum 100% nominal (POT is a 20-bagger), it's the speed of the move and hence the timevalue of money (annualized return subject to "reinvestment" risk). Unfortunately, that speed often gets a little headstart in the form of a gap (with some news tidbit as an alibi) as the specialist begins to move away from his new short basis. Operative word "begin". The beginning of the compliment to the left side of a parabola is one sweet spot. Coveted.

Oh,eh, the remarks about exemption from Regs T and U was solely for information purposes.


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paddy
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efficiency : You wrote in another thread :

" Yep I missed POT. I actually discussed it with a large farmer (operation not rotund) in 1997. Given the chart, how many people have been holding for 11 years?????????? "

Out of curiosity - did you not look at a chart when I first posted ? You stated that action was two years ago . As i see it :

Approximate Time Stage

to Aug-Sept, 2006 I

to Sept-Oct 2007 II

from Oct 2007 to present I

My chart[ Weekly] has a slope of about 45° with EMA 18 and EMA 30 acting as Support Levels . Doesn't have your parabolic shape .

So for a correction I look for test of somewhere down to mid 150's . W EMA 50 presently $156.

Perhaps they will be looking at another stock split like June 2007.


I'm sure that there will be many more times when one can get aboard the POT train.

Have a good Memorial day Weekend .

Paddy


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efficiency
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This is gettin' fun.

Foremost, I have NO position. Hence no pressure. And.......an unjaundiced view.

How does a stock revert back to a stage I without incurring both a III and IV? Aren't we.......eh.......bending the rules? The sequence?

Angles? Completely hinges upon the scale of the chart (not to mention log vs arithmetic).

Split? Merchandising tool. Prior to the 1920's splits were as rare as a lunar eclipse. Example being Livermore trading Bethlehem Steel above $400.

Incidently, BS (ticker not bullshit), was trading in 1999 at $9. Stock never did split. BS became BK (and I don't mean Burger King) soon thereafter.

Splits give Joe Sixpack the illusion of getting something for nothing. Kinda reflects the composition of present (and potential)ownership. Bugs to the porchlight. Buzzzzzzz. Some Joe Sixpacks won't buy an $80 stock but would a $40. Some only insist in trading in round lots, making in a matter of affordability. So slice the same pie into more pieces (and...........announce with great fanfare). Institutions don't care.

Institutions account for what proportion of aggregate market volume?

Yeah, I looked at a chart. In fact, I posted it. And, I could explain it to a 5 year old.

"Sure" along with always, never and free, is a strong word.
It's also one helluva deodorant. Well, at least in the states.

As for words, you might consider defining two (used in conjunction with each other). Namely, cognitive dissonance.

Did you know out of 54 posts in 6 years I've now devoted 5 (9.25926%) toward the matter. Must be important.


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paddy
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You have a weird sense of humor.

That aside thank you for pointing out my error in interpretation . The stock is in stage II .

Glad I have provided you with some laughs . I'll keep working at learning and maybe give you some more laughs.

Again thank you for pointing out my error.

Paddy


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efficiency
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Who says I'm laughing? I just stated it was gettin' fun. Actually, I'm trying to be constructive. With a little levity.

In a nutshell, the best traders are humble. Why? Probably because Mister Market has humbled them (more than once). In turn that involves tuition to the School of Finance. Does one graduate? If they do, they'll have one foot in the grave.

This is a rigged game. With a myriad of players. Each as smart or smarter. Many with deeper pockets and/or more paitience or resources. The common denominator is striving for money. The items you previously cited, news and splits, are merely merchandising tools.

Price will tell you just about everything you need to know. Volatilty increases as a trend (of whatever timeframe) matures. Reflects many people making desicions.
High volume reflects even more people (often "new") making such decisions.

There's a distinction between possibilites and probabilities. You have the ingredients for a 40 point upside day. However, you also have the ingredients for massive desecent. Probablities favor neither.

Distribtion tops are only clear in hindsight and often difficult to fully capitalize upon. Each plays out in a unique fashion (whereas stocks in general bottom in unisom such as March 2003).

Simply put, the bulk of the money has been made here. It's safe to assume there is not a 20-bagger FROM HERE.


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paddy
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efficiency : Appreciate any guidance when I am in error. I know the Markets are rigged . I was once associated with, what turned out to be not the nicest people in the world - and they weren't gringos. They formed a company and I put a property into it . It was a good exploration bet - massive sulfide + gold - silver . I was in brokers office the day they started trading . In short order they had the stock up from 10 cents to 50 cents as they unloaded a batch of their free shares from private placement . A week later, when I got to the property and started work they had the stock trading over $1 on nothing but hype. During the course of the evaluation I think they got the stock up over $2.

As with most mineral occurrences , from a geological viewpoint, it was great - but from an economic viewpoint it was just another prospect.

The crooks of the company [ you could use other words] had a good time mining the public. I parted ways with them . Was not the last that I encountered as there are lots of companies that "mine the public" . Met a real fine one down in Rooland some years back. He put a call on shares and cleaned his parents of their life savings .

Later

Paddy

Paddy


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efficiency
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Didn't use the word error. The ultimate outcome is yet to be known. What I am suggesting is rather than dream of riches, A. Focus upon how much you can lose (worst case scenario). Stated another way, risk. B. Study other 20+ baggers where the outcome is known.

This site severely limits pixels rendering a full chart vague. I suggest you look at complete charts, SINCE INCEPTION ...........on the following two tickers. Big Charts or Prophet.net can both do full charts.

The first is HWAY. Formerly AMHC. Changed their name. Had two bogus merger annoucmments. Theme was medicare cost reduction and "goin' global" Insiders made an exodus to the tune of $18 million at $40 3 years ago. That was deceptive since the stock went on to $70ish THIS YEAR. The weekly chart doesn't do justice to daily gaps.

The other is Doral Financial (DRL), the largest bank in Puerto Rico. At the time it broke in January 2005, it was on the Investors Business Daily (IBD) Top 50. The chart is deceptive because they made a 2007 reverse split, which is a lot like a padded bra. The actual move was from $40 down to just under a buck.

Both broke on massive gaps.

I'm not necessarily trying to sway you (or anyone else) away from POT, but to be cognizant of both positive and negative outcomes. Like I said, it does have the potential for a 40 point up day.

IF you were to obtain an abstract of a stock certificate for ANY 20 bagger, you'd find numerous owners every 2 or 3 points all the way up. Often times on the downside, just two, a bagholder and a bargain hunter (after the bagholder caves in).

Stated another way, how many people, of the present ownership base, have been diligently holding POT for the last 11 years? For 5 years? For 1 year? For one month?

Doesn't high volume mean a change in hands?

Anybody holding for a mere two years of any significance will be quite wealthy when BOOKED. No doubt they feel wealthy right now.


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paddy
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Efficiency : HWAY one bad dude. I looked at the daily from December onward . To me there are a lot of warning signs in the chart.

1] December the EMAs 18 and 30 sinuous crossing back and forth - not a healthy sign

2] 2nd GAP UP in January - looks like reduced volume and not a bullish candlestick formed

3] early January RSI[14] dropped below 70 - bearish signal

4] late January Slow Stochastic dropped below 80 - not bullish

5] before first major GAP DOWN the stock price was at midpoint of Bollinger Bands - lots of red /black candlesticks -spinning tops and finally day before GAP DOWN there was a Hanging Man - none of it bullish

6] Early February bearish cross of EMA18 and EMA30 - should have been enough warnings that one sold stock for around $55

7] Finally the kiss of death in late Feb/early March with the EMA50 crossing below the SMA200 .

Don't know anything about their problems but definitely one of Elliot Ness's "untouchable stocks".

This one fulfilled one "rule" I have - may get delayed but trip to Lower Bollinger Band will occur . This one was spectacular.

Regards,

Paddy


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efficiency
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Too much typing here, so I'll be brief.

I suggested you look at a chart SINCE INCEPTION rather than the last year. The primary marketmaker (naz's don't have specialists) has been there all along. His personality comes through now and than despite guises and disguises.

You seem hung up on moving averages. They offer little in predictive qualities. They will keep you on the correct side of a primary trend but will never catch tops or bottoms. The proverbial death cross (50 under 200) is a predictable threshold but woefully late in move.

RSI and stochastics are both oscillators. Redundant. The distinction being RSI uses closes and stoch incorporates intra-day ranges of highest/lowest over a selected timeframe. IF there is a value to RSI it's in divergence (as Wilder intended). I say IF because a strong price can remain above 70 for extended periods. Pure momentum.

This prolonged 70+ relates to Bollinger Bands. Sometimes the bands repel, but at other times price CLIMBS the band. The value isn't in the bands .........but the width. Which does have a predictive quality. It's safe to assume tight bands will eventually expand.

As for HWAY. There have been a host of gaps. Mostly up to induce UNTIL this year. Those two down gaps effectively create an island top.

Gaps are synthetic price points soley at the descretion of the market maker. In theory to clean out the most open orders.........in reality to move away from his basis (and/or adjust inventory posture). And......for the most part.........are NOT predictable. They usually coincide with a news item serving as an alibi.

I expect HWAY to oscillate around $30, a nice big round number for an extended period before breaking south (again). That would give the moving averages time to catch up (thus leaving false impressions).

The real point is, most recently, 3 years of price progress was negated in a matter of weeks (the two gaps down). This WUZ a 20+ bagger with a dedicated ownership base. You know any other stocks like that?

Hint: HWAY had numerous corrections and thus not such a stout upward price trend. Corrections are probably healthy. The proverbial wall of worry.


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paddy
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Efficiency : Looked at charts . Also did same with POT and BHP[ASX] .

POT chart : Chart distorted with the "corrections that occurred as splits" . However the "parabolic curve" is evident . with its $20 - $30 corrections .

BHP[ASX] I was surprised to see that a good minerals stock also developed the same parabolic curve . Part of the ?commodities bubble? With it, at least to me, the "corrections" have steadily increased in size [ volatility or just percentage of the existing stock price . prior to start of curve the corrections were $2-3 with stock $10 or so. Going up the curve progressed through 5 - 10 - 15 - 30 . How big the next correction?

Re splits : As you stated the Markets are controlled by the big "sharks" . They need "fish" to buy the stocks when they "unload" . I'm sure there are more"fish" that will buy at lower prices and get "eaten" on the inter-split corrections.

Thanks for your persistence that I look at a Complete Chart .

One could state that the slope of the charts has exceeded the angle of repose and sooner than later the gravitational force will take effect and there will be a slide / fault that will bring the slope will come closer to the angle of repose .

Regards,

Paddy


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paddy
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Friday, June 06, 2008 - 10:01 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



efficiency : This stock is defying gravity .

Shares of Potash Corp (POT.TO) hit a record high on Thursday as its chief executive gave a rosy outlook for the world's largest fertilizer company to a Merrill Lynch conference.


http://finance.sympatico.msn.ca/investing/news/breakingnews/article.aspx?cp-docu mentid=7903066

Regards,


Paddy


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efficiency
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Friday, June 06, 2008 - 10:40 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



News, releases, guidance, and..........outlooks are to facilitate the merchandising of paper. Essentially advertising. Obviously it's "working"

POT's up 181% in the last year. Respectable but only 2 of the 20+ bags of the cumulative move. And, at this price point, there's a bit of illusion. 11 points correpsonds to 5 whole per cent. And with a Dow up 212.

Do you even know what the Average True Range (ATR) is on POT. Find out. Then comapre it to today's 5%. Hmmm, might temper some enthusiasm.

Hypothetically, which is better, finding and loading up on a stock emerging from your.........eh............stage 1 to stage 2 or dwelling on a shooting star? To quantify, how many shares of a $5.00 stock can you buy versus a $212.00 stock (of course adhering to strict position size computations taking into account both volatility per issue and your capital?

Hopefully you own some. Me? Eventual short. A ways off. 1. break the trendline 2. Re-test the break 3. Clearly fail the re-test 4. Iniiate a position. 5. Load up below the neckline with a profit cushion (and probable negative news items). Hmmm, what some would call stage 3.

Basic observation of risk/reward.

Stocks typically fall 3 to 4x faster than they rise. That's the beauty, not the maximum nominal 100% under the most ideal of outcomes.

Cheers.

(Message edited by efficiency on June 06, 2008)


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paddy
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Friday, June 06, 2008 - 11:34 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry I thought it would be of interest to you since "Yep I missed POT" . Didn't think you would be following a potash stock as your in Nitrogen country .

Thanks for reminder that I made a mistake . Typical of a gringo feo .

Adios

Paddy


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efficiency
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Friday, June 06, 2008 - 12:50 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It's of no interest to me other than seeing the word "efficiency". Like Pavlov's dog, I start to salivate. One of my many shortcomings.

Yep I missed it. A DECADE ago. And countless other opportunies since. Doesn't really bug me. Two parabolas that do bug me are Cleveland Cliffs and Carpenter Technology. Probably because they only took 5 years to run through 20 bags. Serious money not tail ends. Neither has anything to do with food. All three have the common thread of being paper financial instruments with massive bases (and I'm not referring to military installations).

I'm primarily a trader. A two day trader. Where the probabilities are. I don't trade stocks in la la land. And I certainly don't invest in stocks in la la land. And where I come from, nitrogen aside, people do NOT play cards face out. But all over the world, mice do take the cheese. That's the plan.

Do YOU really think the CEO is buying stock right now?

Oh, I do indeed have an eraser on pencil and plan on paying some tuition now and then the rest of my life. IF I don't have losses..............well..............then I'm not making enough trades/incurring calculated risk.

But..........I do pride myself on cutting the cancer fast, efficient, and detached. When I don't succeed at that, they (gee that's plural) are documented in a losses journal. In turn, I learn more from that journal than pounding my chest and I haven't fallen in love with a stock since 1983.

Is adios a promise this time???????????????????? I promise I won't contend with Potash, it's rosey outlook, or it's defiance of gravity. In other words, to reiterate, leaving you to your own devices. Fair enuff?


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dug
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Saturday, June 07, 2008 - 07:57 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




efficiency wrote on Friday, June 06, 2008 - 12:50 pm:

don't trade stocks in la la land. And I certainly don't invest in stocks in la la land. And where I come from, nitrogen aside, people do NOT play cards face out.




Show Poker,Stud,Manilla.
In Betweens.
so you're a two stroke yank?Two day in'n'outer,hey?
ain't that like as in
la la?

efficiency wrote on Friday, June 06, 2008 - 12:50 pm:

Is adios a promise this time????????????????????




ya on the point of violating.
efficiency,ya got a Superior Tone of Chat
and ya gotta realise paddy brushed with dynamite
so Give us a Break.
Give paddy a Break.

cos if ya think about it?
well,can't ya see how/why paddy Might be touchy about Nitrogen?
Let alone POT!!

Fertilizer is quite d'GO in OZ at d'Mo.
Our POT is MAK.
it don't sell for 100 buck$+
but it's got some Velocity
40cents->$2 since January
That's 2008 !!

Anyhow,there's others,too but not2bore ya.

What's ya ideas on Fads,efficiency?
How about ethics?Like trading d'3D's
Divorce,Death,Distress.

You ever bought'n'sold anything other than bits o'paper?
Paddy?Efficiency?

Me?I've sold lots of things and Dings.
Like I did 3/5 years in Antiques.
Oh I ended,Gave Closure to people,doing that.
Buying Antiques?Pilgrims best to buy from the DEAD!!
That's what I did.
I wrote to the DEAD!!
Not Rocket Science,
You trawl the Funeral Notices and write a Hundred Letters and Five people get in touch wid ya.
Executors of Estates.

Oh I had Shops,Two of them.One burnt down in the Great Recession of 91.When interest rates were 21% on Overdrafts.
Thanks for ya Sympathy but we got over it.

Went into Auctions.I was too honest to make a Buck Restoring.I did ridgey didge hand stripping and shellac only polishing and no one can or should pay ya to do it dat WAY.

Anyway,doing a score on score of Auctions well,one sees a lot of "Stuff".

What 'Bout you 2?
Bought n Sold for REAL?

cheers.


Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

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efficiency
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Saturday, June 07, 2008 - 10:59 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Give YOU a break??


It's.........eh......."you" that keeps addressing me. By handle.

I made the ERROR of pointing out there's always someone on the other side of the trade. "it".........eh..........festered from there.

Apparently somebody added yeast.

I must admit though, I do have adversity to cheerleaders (without pleated skirts), one trick ponies, and child-like impressionability. As well as the implied notion of how easy the markets are. Ditto for flitting from one indicator to another along with tweaking timeframes to curve fit.

Give you a break? If I don't see my moniker, to reiterate, for the third time, I'll leave you to your own devices.


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dug
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Sunday, June 08, 2008 - 11:04 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



You ain't going all sensitive on me,are you?
Doing d'Garbo-I want to be alone?

Don't mention my name and I'll leave you to d'vices on ya own?
I like/approve of your Points of View,ef.They come from experience not what you read in some Best Seller Book.You're a Pilgrim NOT a Devotee.

See I'm contacting you to keep up posting.It needn't be in this thread.Just anywhere and when I do the Search using that Top Left Hand Box on Main Page?well,I'll find anything you post,whereever on whatever.[like I found paddy's answer down in Back Pages]

Anyhow,you go all insular,alone in ya room thinking Why can't they see what I see? if you want/must.Feel Free.

but I'll give you d'Word on the excuse others,with skill,aptitude,even an Opinion have made here to explain Why they Post Nothing that could be considered a Revelation,An Advancement in Trader Learning?

Why THEY don't post anything Worthwhile?
cos,spreading d'Knowledge may hinder them feeding their family,their own.THEY think they're so Fabulous that every Tin Pot No Hoper would BUY their Picks and Wreck their Action.Do what THEY do and lose their Edge.

d'vice of delusion,efficently inculcated because they choose to Stay in their Room!Silent.

cheerio cobber.
Have a nice day,now!


Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

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efficiency
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Sunday, June 08, 2008 - 12:52 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My room? Which room?

Should I be flattered you're going to stock, oops, I mean stalk me? Or repulsed? Given 60 posts over 6 years, good luck.

3200 posts. What's that a reflection of?

Interesting word you coined, "delusion". In conjunction with another word, "grandeur" transcends to a named psychological concept due to frequency of occurences. Dreamers, not schemers. Consistent with buying/holding a paper financial instrument AFTER it's pricing (courtesy of the specialist not the CEO, news reporters, or other schemers) has already been marked up, what 2,400%.

Some define "fool" as knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing. In this context, I guess that makes me rather foolish, eh? We'll see.


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dug
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Monday, June 09, 2008 - 03:38 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



paddy,
all i know about a share on a sharp incline like POT is that the Exit is determined by any move to the Right of the line incline.POT is getting a bit toppy but has just regained a previous broken incline.


US$200+/share is way outta my league.Have you No Access to the ASX,paddy?There's several explorer/discovery Oz Companies running on Fertilizer.
MNM for example has Fertilizer Rock Phosphate Tenements with Gold for example.Double ya chances?
Think it's about 40cents ish.Leveraged even if your only using your own money[not Borrowing].

A share at 40cents paddy.You don't get so twitchy and go in for two day twiddles on such things.
Of course you can't pump yaself up as a Player down ya local bar in a sub-buck share but you're ex-auz,ain't ya paddy so a bar and even cantina is still d'Pub to you,right?
and surely you remember what happened to Twerps who declared themselves Players down d'Pub,hey?

Anyhow,I don't wanna insult ya let alone stalk ya paddy.
see ya round
cheers.


Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

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paddy
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Tuesday, June 10, 2008 - 03:11 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dug : You'll find a reply on the back page re non stock related items .

I first got interested in the stock POT after I came across the hype articles, that IMO, were designed to rattle the Chinese when Russian fertilizer companies started contract negotiations. In reality probably was part of action by a /monopolistic group of companies to enrich their bottom lines.

One of the reports : http://uk.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUKN2635986720071026

It also marked the start of the rise in all fertilizer stocks :

POT from sub $40 to the present $225± ;
Target= 295± [ not my estimate]

MOS from sub $20 to the present $142± ;

AGU from sub $25 to the present $95± ;

I'm not holding . I don't like stocks that don't make normal corrections to the LBB. Hasn't been there since March . When it happens it will probably be a very rapid descent . At present time there is possibility of a $40+ correction. all depends on what "bs"[ another type of fertilizer used to "grow stock prices"] they feed the markets.

I kept following it after the 'nitrogen breather' got on my case .

Will answer your other queries in the back page.

Regards,

Paddy


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paddy
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Monday, June 23, 2008 - 08:01 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Mining companies competing with Farmers .What do you want - copper or grains for your beer and bread?


Mining companies are paying more bucks for their bang

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2228190020080622?feedType=RSS&f eedName=domesticNews


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paddy
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Tuesday, July 08, 2008 - 11:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Nice timing of announcement.

Potash Price May Almost Double to $900/Ton on Limited Supply



http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aOu78JZbTgZ4&pid=20601082


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paddy
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Dug : I'm sure the Bloomberg article on July 8 helped halt the correction that went from $241.62 to $197.17 .

On Friday the price bounced off the daily MBB @ $224.38 . If the POT cartel does not put out anymore hype I think there could be a test @ 216 & 201.

Then there are those that have a target price of $270 .

We'll see this coming week who's right.

Regards,

Paddy







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efficiency
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Wednesday, May 19, 2010 - 03:43 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Let's see, the last post on this thread was July of 2008.

Look at the chart and see what happened subsequently.

$100 is a potent number. It's going to break again.

Potash

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