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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through June 14, 2011

Chart Forum » Stocks - USA » USA Outperforming ETFs » Archive through June 14, 2011

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ehmu
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Saturday, May 14, 2011 - 07:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hmmmmm, which way to the beach ?????????????








_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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Saturday, May 14, 2011 - 07:55 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XGLD

Thinking of you.








_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Thursday, May 19, 2011 - 09:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



12 day correction, good gains for the Bears

+22% gain on TZA
+40% gain on ERY


The Bears have been exited after the abc correction south.

Interesting to note on W%14, that the abc corrective moves have been easily read over the past 4 months.

Exit and entry signals for swing trades for both TNA & TZA have allowed easy participation in both sides of the trade.


TNA is now set for a potential run to the upper trend lines for the end of this 2 year rally. Several Fib extensions to cause resistance as a final high is sort in the coming weeks.


Tentatively feeding back into AGQ at the double bottom, expecting a W%14 signal shortly.









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billt
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Thursday, May 19, 2011 - 09:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



....a +44% opportunity on TZA & TNA over 12 days...



One further chart that I used to capture the abc move...

My previous post referred to a buy & hold for the complete 12 day correction.

The a and c legs gave up +16 and +17% gains on TZA...the b leg +11% on TNA. So a +44% opportunity on TZA & TNA over 12 days...






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starboard_tack
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Thursday, May 19, 2011 - 11:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

It might look like you talk to yourselves on this thread but I assure you that I follow it closely!

I have been looking at potential bottoms for TZA in preparation for loading up for the longer term down move. If I read Rudy correctly then his maximum for the SPX wave 5 now moves down to about 1594 (since wave 4 finished at 1318). This could give a target for TZA (if it moved in the same manner as the Apr 19 to 29 leg) of around 28.72. However, two things make me think that we won't get that low. 1 - I think that there is quite a good chance of a throw-under with wave 5, and 2 - TZA seems to be moving in smaller ranges lately which would suggest that the big money is preparing for the top. I suspect that it may not move any lower than the 32 mark. What are your thoughts?

Regards,
Starb'd

(Message edited by starboard_tack on May 19, 2011)


"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

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gdd3
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Thursday, May 19, 2011 - 03:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Billt, Ehmu and Starboard__tack....

I endorse "Starboard__tack's" comment...It might look like you talk to yourselves on this thread but I assure you that others follow it closely! .

Question...has anyone found out who/how you can trade XLD and XNV Aussie ETF's and at what cost(brokerage)? It would be much appreciated.

Cheers
Dolphin}


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gdd3
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Thursday, May 19, 2011 - 03:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Damm, forgot to attach chart of XLD...




Cheers
Dolphin


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starboard_tack
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Thursday, May 19, 2011 - 04:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill, Ehmu and others,

I have been having a closer look at the article on the problems with leveraged ETFs referred to in msparks' post back in April. Link here again :
http://seekingalpha.com/article/35789-the-case-against-leveraged-etfs

The article was indeed illuminating, however the comments by Angela Bates was the most relevant I thought. She is using a simple MA crossover to move from bull to bear and is not suffering the issues that a buy and hold strategy has. Her system probably does not perform nearly as well as Bill's because of Bill's mix of EW, and cycles etc.

Since I cannot always get internet access from my boat (especially when riding out weeks of strong winds in a remote spot!), I have been looking at how these ETF's perform with a longer time frame.

I have done some calculations on the returns of TNA (3X RUT) during the wave B leg from March 09.

RUT
Mar 10 low 3.4257
Apr 10 high 7.4595 - 117%
May 11 high so far 8.6857 - 153%
SPX
Mar 09 low 666.8
Apr 10 high 1219.8 - 83%
May 11 high so far 1370.5 - 105%
TNA
Mar 09 low 10.21
Apr 10 high 72.24 - 607%
May 11 high so far 96.25 - 842%

TNA, a 3X leveraged ETF, has performance of:
to Apr 2010 - about 5.18 times RUT and 7.3 times SPX, and to May 2011 - 5.5 times RUT and 7.98 times SPX.

Now, using Bill's method of going in and out of TNA and TZA will obviously produce much higher returns. But it seems that a longer term strategy playing the larger Elliott Waves to follow the underlying trend works very well. The criticisms of the leveraged ETF's only seem to apply to a "non intelligent" buy and hold strategy. In fact the very problems noted in the article actually work in your favour if you ride the trends well. This is why the 3X TNA actually performed at nearly 8X. (This is because TNA is 3X on a daily basis and compounds if the trend stays with you).

Now to some crystal ball gazing. Using Bill's SPX wave C estimate of 884 by Jan 2012 (post 876 on the EW thread), SPX should represent the equivalent of approx 57% gain (884 to 1394 say) which should translate to at least a 421% gain for TZA (using only 7.3 times).

If TZA bottoms around 30 that gives a target of approx 126 by Jan 2012.

This is all done by following just the Primary waves (as per Rudy's labelling). It should be greatly improved by moving in and out of TNA and TZA for the Intermediate waves.

Obviously no-one can pick the absolute tops and bottoms, so the actual returns will be less. But, with the help of the G4 and Bill and others, it should be possible to make great returns with only intermittent internet access.

Certainly food for thought! Many many thanks to all of you.

Starb'd


"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

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starboard_tack
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Thursday, May 19, 2011 - 04:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Have you successfully switched over to Interactive Brokers?

What are your thoughts on their product? Are there any pitfalls etc?

Many thanks,
Starb'd


"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

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billt
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Thursday, May 19, 2011 - 06:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

Pleased a few out there are joining in the fun!

Several topics raised:

1. Interactive Brokers
2. $XLD
3. Buy & Hold
4. June Top

Interactive Brokers (IB) seems to working fine. It is early days for me, but an experienced trader mate of mine is well underway and is most impressed.

From previous posts it appears that $XLD is not a tradeable security...it would be a massive success if someone produced an ETF both x2 and x3 bull and bear to the XJO. So sorry Dolphin, not much that I can add.

The Buy & Hold strategy using TZA in the coming correction would be a worthy 'short'. However, the 2007/08 correction saw US Small Caps have numerous rally legs, and missing out on those TNA runs would be sad! As you say the multiplication of each leg is significantly huge. Even if you collect say 70% of each leg, and reinvest 'all-in' on the next leg you will undoubtedly score many multiples over a simple 'buy & hold'. The last 12 days is a very simple example delivering a +44% gain swing trading each leg verses +22% on a 'buy & hold'. IB fees are so small that it enables you to swing trade as many legs as you like - delivering monster results.

Andrew (from Rudy's G4) has been predicting a June 2011 top since God was a Boy! Even when many commentators were suggesting total collapse 12 months ago, the G4 (the four amigos back then) were saying something completely different. Whether we have a throw under or over, I care not, as long as TNA goes like the clappers in the meantime.


The most useful tool in G4s toolkit is the Cycle analysis - having a 'heads up' on time is the most important event to me....the price will look after itself. Trading these x3 ETFs takes the worry out about stock picking.

For those thinking about investing in these ETFs I strongly recommend a very full read of the details on www.direxionshares.com. There are risks attached to everything you trade, and these are no different.

The huge benefit is obviously in the major corrections. To be able to easily short the market at leverage, to trade at a click of a button certainly is a huge advantage.

Thanks for your posts, some very interesting insight.

bill


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billt
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Thursday, May 19, 2011 - 06:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I missed one point Star'd..you asked for my TZA target.

I use the TNA chart for my trades as my mind has a particular problem upside down!

My 'buy-in' on TZA will be at the sell W%14 trigger on TNA.

Three obvious targets on TNA are noted in my chart on post 880 above. I trade more from the indicators than having any preconceived price, so I do not concern myself with thinking too much about targets. I am more focused on time. The last three rally legs on TNA have produced simple W%14 signals - hopefully we will get another one in June.


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billt
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Thursday, May 19, 2011 - 09:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Starboard,

$33.00 represented the 2007 top of $RUT, and therefore presents a strong support level on TZA.

TZA may attempt to retest the $31.58 once again, or push further lower, but I will be watching the indicators closely as we approach $33. $RUT often turns before $SPX to lead the big boys south, so I have an initial turn date of 1 June, with SPX to follow.






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ehmu
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Friday, May 20, 2011 - 03:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Thursday, May 19, 2011 - 09:25 pm:

retest the $31.58 once again




Not a recommendation, just a slightly different view, quite aggressive actually --- so not for the faint hearted.

The first chart shows IWM which is the etf for the Russel 2000. I have used the break of the long term trend line as a bearish sign. The long term trend line has multiple touches and goes back to August 25 2010. The second bearish sign is that todays price tried to test the uptrend and failed. The third confirmation of this analysis is that the price tested the break of the 13ema and 34ema, which are threatening to cross and are both beginning to trend in a downward direction.




The second chart is XII which is the "Institutional Investor Index", which confirms all of what I just said about the first chart. Trend going back to August 25 2010. This chart validates that the big monkeys are on the same page. I used an "Andrews pitchfork" to mark this trend.




The third chart (messy chart) shows TZA which I believe is near the base of a rising price channel. I am taking this opportunity to accumulate some more TZA. This is the agressive move that I suggest no one follow unless you know how to protect your capital.

As you can surmise, I give the general US markets very little respect to the up side short term.




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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Friday, May 20, 2011 - 03:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I offer up further support to my breakdown theory with a chart of UUP, which is the etf for the $USD. I use this chart because it avails me to real time action on the $US.

The dollar has broken its down trend and is finding support at the 34ema. If this support holds (and I hope it does ) then the dollar will continue to rise (maybe another $) and when that happens, the markets will fall as well as commodities.




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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Tuesday, May 24, 2011 - 04:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ehmu wrote on Friday, May 20, 2011 - 03:16 am:

The dollar has broken its down trend




The attached "IDIOT WEEKLY" --- the idiot says buy the dollar and sell almost everything else.

It looks like it could be a very sustained run up to me.




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011 - 01:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO is presenting a low risk long trade here, because it is bouncing off of the long term up trend line dating back to March 09.

I say this with the thought to play the bounce, short term. There looks to be 80-100 points to the upside where the down trend will pose resistance once again.

On the down side, todays price is right on the support of the long term up trend. If price breaks down below the long term up trend, then XJO will present a low risk short trade.






_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Friday, May 27, 2011 - 05:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Ed for those earlier charts.

In the last few weeks the 15 min charts have enabled 10-12% gains on each 3/4 day leg to be made on TNA/TZA as the correction unfolded.

The Bull ETFs are now back on a 'buy'. I swapped over on 24th using the 15 min RSI/MACD/ADX/STO. Fast indicators also triggered on the 24th. A strong W%14 signal on 25th.

Taking TNA, the prices have exited the upper trend line and things look set up for a possible counter rally. Targets are shown on the chart.

I am expecting that TNA's recent top will not be challenged in this rally. I hope I am wrong, as the upper trend line would produce another +30% rally! A trip north to form a right shoulder would be fine.

Rudy's & Andrew's cycle work on other threads suggests that a turn south anytime after 2 June. With Andrew's 1 & 2 year cycle headed lower already, and with the 4 year set to top out early June - I will be loading up on TZA. I will be glued to the 15/30/60 min charts to time the switch back to the bears. The Bear Fur is ready!






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billt
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Saturday, May 28, 2011 - 12:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



RUT broke the trend line last night, and reversed just short of the previous high.

859 Target is the 2007 high.





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billt
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Wednesday, June 01, 2011 - 10:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bull ETFs gain +15% to +24% in the week

(AGQ Ultra Silver the winner again!...just doing its thing)



Another look at US Small Caps - closed at 848 overnight

The 5 waves off the 807 low looks to be completing. Any break of the trendline will confirm that the 'a wave' is complete.

As I am expecting this wave to be the final 5-[5] of a 'distorted expanding' Ending Diagonal format, I expect that a 3 way move may have the higher probability. RSI looks toppy, and the MACD histo' is beginning the decent.

A trip to the gap support zone for wave b, then onwards for wave c is the expectation. RUT has printed out 16/17 day patterns for over a year - will it do the same once again?

Loads of Resistance above! 849 & 855 are the immediate overhead resistance levels. The 2007 high 856.48 will prove difficult to pass. Another recent top 859 (Left Shoulder?), 861 the current UBB, and the 868 recent top high another obstacle. If we get through that lot, 880 is the upper trendline. If c = a then we may have a run to that overhead trendline....

TNA (x3 Bull RUT) closed on a 61% fibo overnight from the recent top. The upper trendline for TNA gives a target of $101, a further possible +18% gain....

TZA (x3 Bear RUT) is reaching the us$33 zone, for those that prefer stocking up the bears for a trip south. $31.58 was the recent 2 May low. IHS current set up for TZA, and a possible 'Flat' Wave C to follow to target March 2009 lows? In March 2009 TZA was us$1717....say no more.






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billt
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Thursday, June 02, 2011 - 08:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Love the smell of a TZA gain in the morning


Yesterdays thought:

"The 5 waves off the 807 low looks to be completing. Any break of the trendline will confirm that the 'a wave' is complete."




Out of the bulls once again as the trendline was smashed at the open. Trading TZA & TNA for the past month using the trend line breaks and other fast indicators has made things easy.

+8% TZA gain beats waking up to a big gap down on XJO and wondering what to do holding long positions....

The short term indicators are well over bought on TZA, and divergence on the MACD, so I am ready for another trade tonight...







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ehmu
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Thursday, June 02, 2011 - 09:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

I am on the right side of the TZA trade, but only because of dumb luck. This market makes me look a lot like a gambler, and I don't like that feeling.

The gap down below the trading channel had me guessing, but who knows what tomorrow will bring. Today I showed a 9.5% gain on the security, and 1% more on the foreign exchange.

We're not done the topping process quite yet I feel, and these markets are mind numbing to say the least. It was a coin toss on the risk side, and I could have just as easily been sitting on the sidelines tonight.

In hind sight the W%R buy trigger on the 60min charts looked PDG, but doing it in hind sight is like tracing a cartoon character on to transparent paper with the artist original underneath, anyone can do it.

I'm also attaching a chart of the daily McClellan. I plotted June 13 vertical line where there is some consensus that a crest may occur there. For me, I'm defining a crest where the price chart breaks down below the 13ma.

I also notice that the McClellan price chart (heavy blue line) is honoring the resistance of the larger pennant. This resistance also coincides with the resistance of the 13ma. It paused there yesterday and today. I mention this, because it is unusual for this chart to halt early on in the bounce.





The Russel A/D line is looking a little bearish don't you think ?




_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Thursday, June 02, 2011 - 03:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal

My own view is that the release of Q1 2011 US GDP figures at the end of April showing a sharp reversal was the commencement of the main trend shift. The top was put in only days after.

I expected $33 on TZA would be revisited and it has. Whether the next rally gets back to those levels is less certain. So I am 'bearish' short (month), medium (quarterly) & long term (yearly) but will continue to play the topping pattern...

What has helped me over the past few months is the switch to the much faster indicators, the simple breaks in the trendlines at the oversold/overbought condition, and a reliance on the 15/30/60 min charts.

On the 60 min chart of TZA, the breaks of blue trend lines have given clear 'buy' signals. The breaks in the green trend lines, reasonably good 'sells'. The ADX, RSI, MACD, STO & Volume have also helped map out the changes of trend in this topping pattern.

Each of these last 9-10 legs have delivered 10-20% on every 'bight' - it has been a swing traders delight! 'Buy & Hold' for the first 6 months of 2011 has produced very little.

As >70% of trades on Wall Street occur in less than 3 minutes, it is obvious how the big end of town are cleaning up.


I will continue to trade the rallies in TNA, but with increasing caution and earlier exits...


Currently, on the TZA 60 min chart note the volume at the start and the end of the day. A lot of money bagged the +10% gain and cleared off! The logarithmic computers had a great days work. There is possibly more upside on TZA on the 60 min, but on the 15 min things are already pretty hot for another swing...watch the trend line! STO is already hooking over and look also at the little switch of angle of the ADX at the close - a micro shift.


thanks for your posts Hal,

bill








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ehmu
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Friday, June 03, 2011 - 10:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I closed my TZA today, eh!

I don't trust those POMO guys. It would be just like them to say, let's spend our next POMO shorting our own markets. If you thought they were making $$$$ before.

I say this because the markets are at a real crossroads.

The McClellan has spent three days up against the resistance of the large pennant breakdown resistance, per attached chart.

On the other two charts I show the 581 level on the XII where this is the most common exchange of power between the buyers and sellers all the way back to 1998.

The weekly W%R has crossed negative, and the price has crossed the 21ema on the weekly, grrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

The weekly idiot crossed negative three weeks ago, and the CCI's are looking very pale.

If the weekly chart for XII closes below 579, I say look out below. If the next POMO buys securities rather than shorting them, well, the crash might take another couple of weeks.








_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Monday, June 06, 2011 - 04:46 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



TNA/TZA +30% gain in 7 days....Too Easy!


It has been interesting to watch US Small Caps respecting the trend lines over the past few weeks. A break of the trend line has clearly signalled a change of trend and a switch from Bull to Bear to Bull to Bear. The TZA 15 min trend line could be cut with a fine wire line!

On the 60 min chart the Bull & Bear trades have also been clearly identified.

Using the simple channels & trendlines has delivered a +30% gain on TNA/TZA since 25 May.

Currently on the 60 min, we have reached a support level, which has produced a mini Double Bottom @ 807. The RSI has touched the oversold level, and some divergence setting up on the MACD on Friday. W%14 now in the takeoff zone. There may be further downside nevertheless as the month long lower trendline @798 has yet to be reached. The MACD, although climbing (with divergence to price), has yet to reach the zero level.

A break of RUT upper trendline will be the key for the switch back to the Bulls - watching the TZA 15 min chart closely as the Double Bottom (Top) often provides the turning point.


I can't find many (any) XJO securities that have outperformed the TNA/TZA system in the last 7 days? I'll stick with this knitting ....






















On the EW Count, many 'wavers' have another wave north to run in the coming few weeks. Either a 5-[5] in an 'expanded' Ending Diagonal, or Wave 4 completing in a Triangle with a Wave 5 about to commence. With the Armstrong date now only a week away perhaps we may get a relief rally north? I'll be trading the trend line break, and will not be double guessing the outcome as 1 & 2 year Cycles have turned south already.


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ehmu
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Tuesday, June 07, 2011 - 01:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for your posts re tna/tza willy.

don diago rules again.

h


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ehmu
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Hi Bill:

I left TZA early, before the weekend, not trusting the PPT and their devious agents (morgan and sacky).

I'm seriously thinking of getting back in because of this possibility.

If you look at the McClellan chart and xii chart attached, they present the possibility that the tiny little marked peak is the breakdown peak that I was expecting around June3.

This would mean that there is about to be some very serious downage.

On the other hand, I'm considering the safety of your strategy to trade based on trend/channel breaks on the 15/60min charts.








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billt
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Tuesday, June 07, 2011 - 07:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal,

TZA on the 60 min now in overbought area on the RSI, with divergence still in play.

The IHS has last night broken the neckline.

TZA now +20% gain in 4 days!





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Tuesday, June 07, 2011 - 03:18 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



How do you rate the influence of this unfilled gap ?? Same on S&P 500.




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colin_twiggs
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Tuesday, June 07, 2011 - 07:50 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hal, Please stick to one username.


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billt
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Tuesday, June 07, 2011 - 08:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal

I assume there are logarithms within Wall Street Mainframes to deal with the 'gaps', as there are to 'trade at the trendline'...so normal rules apply.

Remember that in 70% of the time your trading with an IBM Mainframe, so all the normal 'old stuff' must be in there somewhere.

...I do hope that 'hmon' is you Hal and not Anthony Weiner in disguise?


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ehmu
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Rats, busted, and it was such an innocent mistrake. What gave it away, was it my initials, or my charts ?



colin_twiggs wrote on Tuesday, June 07, 2011 - 07:50 am:

...I do hope that 'hmon' is you Hal and not Anthony Weiner in disguise?




___________________________________________________
____________________________________________________

I have always relished being a Wiener in disguise.
__________________________________________________

Will the real Weiner please stand.





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These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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Tuesday, June 07, 2011 - 09:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I note two resistance levels on attached chart.

$39.85 which is todays close and the 89ema.

$40.8 which is gap resistance from March 21.

If I'm right about PTT shorting the us market using us treasuries, overbought won't matter a titch. TZA will blow right thru.




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ehmu
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Tuesday, June 07, 2011 - 09:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Tuesday, June 07, 2011 - 07:45 am:

The IHS has last night broken the neckline.




If it is IHS, then target about $44.


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ehmu
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Hi Bill:

Hopefully you won't kick me off your thread for irrelevant posts.

The McClellan is pertinent why ?? I think that it shows the cycles of underlying sentiment without the illusion presented by the price bias of the big trading houses. Their bias being of course the necessity of not turning on a dime, like a big tanker cannot quickly change course or speed for that matter (and index prices follow their clumsy adjustments).

I don't have the same confidence quite yet as you do to trade on the 15min charts for TZA. Also I'm a little lazy as you know and would prefer to trade daily or weekly if it means roughly the same money.

A couple of notes on the McClellan chart tonight.

The sentiment is decisively NEGATIVE, as witnessed by the location of the chart below the 233ema, which loosely translates to the yearly average.

There was a breakout from a trough where we were expecting a breakdown from a peak, suggesting that there has been a reversal of cycle dominance.

My current thinking is to concentrate on TZA rather than switch back and forth from TZA to TNA. My rationale is that the predominant sentiment trend is and will continue to be in the downward direction.

I am anticipating another buying opportunity for TZA soon, where the prices may not give us much indication of a rally in index price, but the Mc will.

I also note as contrarian support for my theory that there is a tonne of "IT'S GROSSLY OVERSOLD" chirping going on by the bulls in denial.

It is of little consequence, other than knowing where the crocs are---the consolation being that we little traders can move in and out of our positions with blinding speed.





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These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Wednesday, June 08, 2011 - 11:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...please keep posting Hal, I find your charts very helpful & your commentary.

I agree with you that the main sentiment is bearish. Back at the May '11 top, I was suggesting that as US GDP had turned south then I was not expecting that top to be challenged. (lots of TA guys choke on that idea, but it seems to have repeated itself once again)

I may however be wrong, and I therefore see playing both sides of the trade as an 'insurance policy'. I also expect that there will be substantial TNA rallies in the year ahead.

Playing only the TZA legs is another worthy option - certainly less drama!

Assuming for a moment that Wave C DOWN has commenced, and if US Small Caps is in a Flat corrective pattern, it is probable that Wave C = Wave A. If that plays out Wave C will be in an Impulsive or Ending Diagonal format, targeting c.342.

I looked back at the print out during the corrective zigzag Wave A (July 07 to March 09) to test the idea of not trading the TNA legs, and as you can see from the attached chart there were more TNA periods than TZA periods in time but not in price.

TZA made you more 'loot' as the downs were BIG, and the indicators more obvious with the big impulses (eg. +188% Sept-Oct 08), but there were definitely long periods of TNA runs too (eg. Nov-Dec 08 +120%, & March-June '08 +55% or October-November '08 +68% ). Within these rally legs there were many short TZA plays to keep you amused....

The next few years on US Small Caps may be a lot more impulsive - with perhaps bigger waves south, but I sense there maybe sizeable TNA rallies too, particularly in an Ending Diagonal (ED) format. Wave 1 in an ED will be the biggest TZA run so I will be showing caution on any early TNA runs - playing only TZA early on may be a wise option if the ED Wave 1 plays out!

There is a possibility that there is a Leading Diagonal DOWN off the 2 May top, and we have a 1/2 DOWN of the initial impulsive wave south set up on US Small Caps, so caution ahead! The Wave 1 DOWN of the ED may already be underway...

bill









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ehmu
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Hi Bill:

Great analysis to read, were you a surgeon in a previous life ? You're making the tna/tza trade look very simple.

I'm not quite sure what you're suggesting in this following paragraph. I got a little lost in the terminology so I'm not getting what the caution is. Are you saying that we're due for a bounce ?


billt wrote on Wednesday, June 08, 2011 - 11:24 am:

There is a possibility that there is a Leading Diagonal DOWN off the 2 May top, and we have a 1/2 DOWN of the initial impulsive wave south set up on US Small Caps, so caution ahead! The Wave 1 DOWN of the ED may already be underway...





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billt
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Thursday, June 09, 2011 - 10:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal


A picture:

Assuming 868 is the top of Wave B, and RUT is now in a Flat C, then we may have completed a Leading Diagonal Wave 1 DOWN in a five wave move completing @ 807, a completed WAVE 2 @ 848, and we may have already started the Wave 3 DOWN, which just might keep on heading South!

Look out below.....

775.90 might be the support for the end of this initial i-[3] under this count, with ii-[3] yet to occur. The top of ii-[3] may provide an ideal spot to top up on some more TZA? The iii-[3] wave will do the most damage of course taking us way off this particular chart.


The 855.91`would need to be b-2-[1] in this count







Under this Count I am looking at the possibility of a near term TNA run. Indicators are at oversold levels, and the 775 target looks tempting for a turn....


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ehmu
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Hi Bill:

Thanks for your image.

I dig it.

Kind of like doing the cha cha-----i, ii, cha cha cha

i take the tna

ii take the tza

___________________

tna, tza, cha, cha, cha


H


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billt
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Thursday, June 09, 2011 - 11:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As far as supports go the 770 - 775 zone looks the obvious target. Not much to catch the falling knife until we get there I feel. The MA 200 will be around that zone in a few days too, which will provide a stronger level of support. We may well be in the fifth wave of i-[3], so not that much longer to wait. If we don't stop at 770, the Jumbo number 747 is the next stop.


This 'added to' extract from 'Tedlines' gives some other ideas as we head south.


The 802 to 816 level looks to be resistance levels for ii-[3], which may straddle the middle fib targets once we know were this initial low sits....a possible 10-15% TNA run so I'll play that too. I will be 'all-in' on the iii-[3] leg on TZA. If this plays out it may be a multi-bagger play.


That's my 'dumb ideas' at the moment.....my alternative EW count is that Wave B has not yet completed, and what we are currently in is an expanding complex triangle Wave 4, with Wave 5 UP (perhaps a failed 5th) to follow...thats another reason why I will continue to trade both sides of the trade.


Hal, its more like 'pogoing in the mosh pit' to me!







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Thursday, June 09, 2011 - 11:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...sorry, the chart is from Tedlines, not the words!


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billt
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hi Hal

One final thought for the day...


The 16/17 day cycle on RUT has been repeated for over 12 months. My next cycle date is 8 trading days away (20/21 June). Now that may be a high or a low, but assuming it is a high that may pick out the top of ii-[3] on the bearish count.


Targets for i-[3] perhaps 761-775 but the break of that trendline will be telling.


Wave ii-[3] @ 802, with a few more fib targets once we know the low....


What then follows is a nested wave iii-[3] pattern taking us to the much deeper depths? ....Depends how Big a Polar you are?? Read on......








Now here is the thing:

If that next 16/17 day cycle point is a low, and the trendline stays intake,....we could be heading for c.670 very fast and an imminent 9 days of further carnage in a very strong i-[3] move! A year of gains wiped out in 9 days.....and a further +50% rally on TZA to tally +80% in this 17 day cycle? A significant additional forex gain to boot!






...much Elk licking if this eventuates!!


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ehmu
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Hi Bill:

I've been working on keeping my emotions in check re:tna/tza, in order to more comfortably trade them on short term.

Using Randall's idiot, and Rudy's W% and curve fitting a little with chart settings to find what the programmed traders seem to be using at the time, came up with the following idiot--2hr. Note how it gets me in in a timely fashion, and doesn't get me whipped out (ie if I were trading the 15min or 30 min). I'm using 3crossing5 ma, MACD crossing, and 13cci crossing zero.

I marked the breakout with blue, and the breakdown with red arrows.





I have also been using the W% hourly, which gets me in at the same point, but not with the same level of confidence. I use the price crossing the 13ma, and the W% crossing the ROC, marked with the blue and red arrows.





I'm including the 15min W% to show where previously I would have prematurely jumped in on the initial break at the 15min level.

PS
I marked June13 because that is where I'm expecting a breakout to the upside. Well if it turns out to be a top instead, the eld licker will be a pot licker.




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billt
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Friday, June 10, 2011 - 09:20 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hal

Thanks for sharing those charts. It is important to get a ‘feel’ of these things before jumping in. It does take a bit of time and consideration. You certainly have to adjust your time chart to the type of trade which suits you. I favor the 60 min, but I like your 2 Hour too…

The 2 Hour chart is interesting with those suited MAs. It does allow you to pick up most of each leg without too many false signals.

On the 60 min charts the MAs are less useful when prices track sideways as they have done in May. Your W%R 21 indicator method looks sound. Interesting to see how prices on the 60 min often use the ema 20 on the breakout as resistance/support on RUT.


Perhaps Hal you post a 2 hour chart to see how it would have worked over the past year - back test it....and work out what the gains would have been trading TNA/TZA on each leg. Start with $100k and reinvest the lot after each leg....you may be staggered at the result! Post the result Hal...it will be interesting to see!



The 15 min charts are great if you are placing multi day trades, trying to keep pace with the ‘Mainframes’ who are trading on the 1 min charts or less!

I’m happy to pick up most of these 5 to 10 days legs, so the 60 min or 2 Hour charts do just fine….



Other than that it is a bit of feel. A bit of other standard TA stuff to give you a guide.


Observations on the days trade has me still with the bears, but mindful that we may swing north once again.

RUT showed a break of the 6 day June trend line, the price action did not look that sustained to move me to the bulls as of yet. I am showing a lot more caution in exiting my bears...

The EW 5 wave pattern may have completed at 787, as there is a mini 5 wave pattern within that final push to 787. However, we may have only carved out a wave iv-[i] over the past three days, with perhaps wave v-[i] still to run south to pick up the lower area of support @ 770 mentioned yesterday.

I would like to see prices pushing through the ‘red’ ema 20 on the 60 min before I give up the bears. Prices closed below the declining ‘blue’ month long lower trend line off the 807 which was also bearish. W%7 and W%14 on the daily have yet to trigger a bull buy.

On the bullish side, the six day trend line has broken, and divergences have set up on the rsi, macd, and sto on the 60 min. The macd is back above zero, and the rsi has posted several over bought 30 signals. On the daily, the faster indicators have today triggered a bull buy.



It all keeps the ‘Grey Matter’ churning Hal…thanks for those charts, a combination of the 1 Hour & 2 Hour Charts may suit your trading style well! Trading each leg without too much drama...and keeping you 'in' a leg without a premature exit!






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ehmu
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Friday, June 10, 2011 - 10:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




billt wrote on Friday, June 10, 2011 - 09:20 am:

Observations on the days trade has me still with the bears, but mindful that we may swing north once again.




I baby sat the charts for the first two hours, thinking that we're getting close to a shift in the tides one way or the other. The feeling that I got was what the psyche "mainframe" wave builders were trying to get the markets over the hump on the up side momentum. Almost like the trick to empty a canoe that has capsized in the middle of the lake, washing the water back and forth slowly dumping the excess back in to the lake.

Once I felt their frustration, I went for a run.

Yes, I'll do the study when I'm of a critical mind. I notice that the cross over points on the idiot often have wide range days involved, and I don't want to set myself or anyone else up with unreasonable expectations. The implication that I speak of wide range candles is that there tends to be more slippage than you might expect when actually trading those days, because trading those fast moving days is very competitive.

I too held my bearish positions today, likely to be some large movement in the next few trading days.

I took a very small TNA position about 2pm, put on a trailing stop equal to the ATR, and look what those quant doinks did in the last hour of trading. I'm still in, but will be gone if she gaps down in the morning.

I like your 775 because it coincides with Jan and Mar lows---and the 200dema is 775.46 according to my charts. I see overhead resistance at 794 and we closed at 792.64.

Thanks for your encouragement, you'll be the first to see my forcast of profits using this technique.

Check out todays eod McClellan, still driving downward, this is very bearish sign.






_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Friday, June 10, 2011 - 12:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Hal

The McC looks pretty sick...

The alternative bullish EW count that I favor is that we are churning through a wave 4 Triangle, with perhaps a 'd' & 'e' leg to go...RUT @ 825 (TNA $82) is my 'd' target (current 61.8 retrace @ 20 June cycle date, hitting overhead trend line, 5 May low resistance).

This would keep both EW counts alive....?

If TNA drops below $68.77 (RUT @ 775.90) this bullish count will get a little sick...

We have a potential two day Double Bottom (DB) at this point, which has signalled a reversal many times before for RUT...so I'll watch things closely at the open.

XJO has bounced off her DB today, with a W%14 trigger, so that may suggest a possible bounce in Disneyland?





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ehmu
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Saturday, June 11, 2011 - 04:05 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have been a TA advocate for years, now becoming something else.

First chart and link based on TA and candlestick analysis, a technical decision to buy TNA. (which I did to satisfy the technical, small, against my better gut feel)

Second chart, one of my short positions (all reacted the same today) I held based on my gut instinct that I smelled a rat. Note that I hold 25% of my portfolio in shorts and 75% in cash. I feel a little betrayed by my convictions supporting TA, by the fact that yesterdays trading told me to cover my short positions. Hah------what a joke.

http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=TNA&MarketTicker=NYSE&TYP=S







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billt
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Saturday, June 11, 2011 - 07:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



RUT intra day low @ 777
Downward Trendline still intake...

TZA: +27% gain in 9 days


Hi Hal,

I thought we worked it out pretty well:


...."Targets for i-[3] perhaps 761-775" (me)


..."we may have only carved out a wave iv-[i] over the past three days, with perhaps wave v-[i] still to run south to pick up the lower area of support @ 770 mentioned yesterday." (me)


..."I like your 775 because it coincides with Jan and Mar lows---and the 200dema is 775.46 according to my charts." (you)



If RUT takes out 775.90 on Monday, things look a lot more bearish. SPX has not retraced as far to date, nor the other major indices, so lets see what next week brings. RUT is at a very strong support zone, so if it fails here....my super bearish option will increase in probability with a very quick ride south....


Both of my EW counts are still valid, but my bullish count will sicken if 775.90 gets taken out.

I feel 777 may be the low and we will rebound north. However, prices tested the EMA 10 (blue) before the close and failed again, so not all that positive.

My triggers (rules!) to sell my shorts:

1. Prices to push above the ema 20 (red) on the 60 min [currently @ 789],
2. Prices to hold and close above the ema 20,
3. A bullish cross of the ema 10 & 20 (red & blue),
4. Break of the short term 9 day bearish trend line (black) and a close above it.

Note that the ema 20 and the trend line are now in alignment - break one you break the other...A repeat of the price action and emas after the 807.93 low is what I'm looking for.


Until that all happens, I'm holding my 'shorts'...I bought TZA at the top of the last trend line break just below the 848, so I will hold them until this break north occurs...







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Monday, June 13, 2011 - 06:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill:

Forgive me for posting this here, I haven't received one comment on this string, so would appreciate yours.

I think that this chart is the bees knees, because it is like Bernanke's score card. It is a chart of the $US with respect to the $VIX. And I plotted the SP500 just for interest sake.

The US FED is using their printing presses and they are painting the VIX to maintain foreign investment in the American markets (and the US dollar).

From the chart, I don't think that they will let it go below the 1.05 level, because that is where they still have a positive inflow of international resources to their economy.

As you can see from the chart there is a definite topping pattern developing toward the end of QE2.

Notice the POMO pumping pattern in the month of may to try to keep it rolling or get something started. Like an impulse engine should work in outer space with no gravity. But alas, here on earth we have gravity.






_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Monday, June 13, 2011 - 10:39 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Hal

No debate at all from me...

$USD has devalued over 40% against the Swiss in a year....that is the real barometer to me.

Perhaps we should be investigating the possibility of investing in juiced ETFs denominated in Swiss Franc!










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ehmu
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Tuesday, June 14, 2011 - 09:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



McClellan down again, approaching the long term up trend around -136. Shown on monthly chart below.

Deadly, dudley.







_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.

 
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