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Do stock prices really trend?

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david_louisson
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Tuesday, March 07, 2006 - 05:47 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Do stock prices really trend?

Yes, I believe they do. If price movements were completely random, it would be impossible to succeed at trading, in the long run, over any time frame.

However, try the following test.

Below are six charts.

Three represent 1000 consecutive EOD closing prices for three different UK100 stocks (chosen at random).

The other three were created by generating 1000 points using Microsoft Excel's random number generator.

Of course, the question is: Which of the three are genuine prices, and which are the random sequences?

OK, punters - let's have your expert opinions!

Correct answers will be published in due course.

Good luck!
David

a1

a2

a3

a4

a5

a6

Let me repeat: If price movements were completely random, it would be impossible to succeed at trading, in the long run, over any time frame.


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david_louisson
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Footnote: the vertical scale in the charts is linear, as opposed to logarithmic.







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dutchdanish
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Real charts: F, C, B?

maybe A?

(Message edited by dutchdanish on March 07, 2006)


"...yet with how many things are we upon the brink of becoming acquainted, if cowardice or carelessness did not restrain our inquiries."
--M. Shelley

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snorter
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David

Good post!
Excel charts -
Each point is a change of one point from the previous point, the direction being random? (+1, -1, 0)
Were these random charts, randomly chosen?


"Failure is not an option"

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stevo
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David
They are all probably random sequences!

Any of them could have generated using a random heads and tails spreadsheet - you will get 8 plus heads or tails in a row if you throw the coin 1000 times. Also they all look to have been generated using Excel - just keep hitting the F9 button.

It doesn't matter if stock prices are random or genuinely trending for some reason as long as we make substantially more than we lose.

stevo


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david_louisson
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Thanks, guys, for your replies.

Dutch: you're the only person bold enough (thus far) to attempt an answer. But if I tell you how right or wrong you are now, it might spoil it for others who also want to try. So I will postpone posting the answer for now.

Snorter: the three Excel graphs were plotted by generating a random number in the interval (-5,+5) for each "day", simulating a possible rise or fall of up to 5 points. This value is then added to the previous day. Re selecting the three stocks, I simply chose three popularly traded UK100 companies that didn't have "giveaway" characteristics like splits or "earthquakes". I did NOT choose ones that I thought exhibited the most "random-like" behavior. That would defeat my purpose, because there is a genuine point that I'm trying to make here. These are actual EOD closing prices being plotted.

Stevo: only three of the charts are random. You are correct when you say that numbers randomly generated will create the APPEARANCE of "trends" (e.g. likelihood of 8 successive heads in 1000 coin tosses). But it would be impossible to trade these profitably, because no matter where one "enters" or "exits" there is always EXACTLY a 50% chance of the "trend" reversing at that point (which means that if there were transaction costs, one must eventually lose, as it would be a negative sum game). That applies irrespective of whether one is trading long term or short term. The assumption TA makes is that prices (under suitable market conditions) actually create a GREATER THAN 50% chance that the next bar(s) will continue in the direction of the trend; that they also occasionally break out with increased volume, ping back from extremes, respect trendlines, support and resistance, reverse at Fibonacci retracement areas, etc. It is these types of behavior that defy randomness, and hence potentially allow a trader to profit.

The underlying point that this post attempts to make is that there is little immediate visual difference between randomly generated numbers and "trending" prices, but somehow it is apparently significant enough to allow expert traders to profit across the course of a lifetime.

I was wondering whether experienced chartists might be able to discern patterns (e.g. levels of support and resistance) in the prices which would enable them to make a correct "guess". My less educated eyes struggle to see them.

David

(Message edited by david_louisson on March 07, 2006)


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ingot54
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If price movements were completely random, it would be impossible to succeed at trading, in the long run, over any time frame.

But they ARE random, David, imho.

All trading should be done from the hard right edge - the next day's price should always be seen as a lottery.

You only have your edge to help you, and even your edge will fail you on many of your trades .

I am missing the point here, I am sure.

Even if all 6 charts are randomly generated, or all 6 charts actual sequences of historic activity, does it make a difference to how the trade is managed?

I'm not sure I can agree with the contention. It's really splitting hairs, isn't it?

Nothing trends forever! And time is the essence of any trade, be it intraday, or 10 years.


Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.

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ingot54
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Travis Morien has an excellent essay on trend and randomness here

Morien seems to support your contention, and the rest of his essays are worth the time on a rainy day.


Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.

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azure
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I don't believe prices can be completely random, otherwise over the long term the market would not move. Share prices must in some way reflect the value of the companies, even if adjusted by some market sentiment, and the real value of companies do change due to numerous factors such as good and bad management, commodity prices, etc.

Now, I have to admit that even if pure randomness can be disproved, it doesn't imply that trending does occur. Perhaps there is some other behaviour that still leads to a price increase in the long run. However I have seen enough charts to say that I do believe that trends occur.

Perhaps some level of proof would be to calculate the probability of a share chart such as, say RIN occurring by chance. If the odds are small enough perhaps we can feel there is some statistical significance to the behaviour we see.

By the way I guess B, C and D as the random charts as they show the smallest deviation from the mean.


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justice
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From documentaries on the subject I know that during the last tech bubble bull run, there was at least one NASDAQ listing that went up consistently for months despite the only required regular report produced had but one line of text which stated quite categorically that the company had precisely NO business activity during that (or any other) reporting period. The company did nothing and owned nothing. Lots of "smart" traders made good money on this 'value' company before the $hit hit the fan after the bubble burst.
I don't know if this contributes interest to this discussion, but it sure does wonders for my sense of perspective.

(Message edited by justice on March 07, 2006)


... XXXX2 ... :-)

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msparks
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David
The time frame of 1000 days is roughly 3 years so i could look at the index and compare to see if there were any common events, but i didn't.

Also if the time frame was marked on the charts and the reporting dates were roughly known, maybe they are the same as asx stocks ,don't know, but then that wouldn't be only TA would it ?

I would say A,C and E are the stock price charts.

Trend lines, breakouts ,support /resistance can be drawn on all the charts.

BDF are random generated i reckon and i will tell you why when you give the answer out OK.

By the way, you can still make money with 20 % winners and 80% losers when trading IF the 2 winners make more than the 8 loss's so what is the point you are trying to make.

Perhaps just put some money down and just do it, you will learn more in a month than all the years of research and procrastination.

PS If i am wrong, just ignore everything i said, ok.

EDIT - How many random charts did you generate to pick the one's you posted ?

(Message edited by msparks on March 08, 2006)


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msparks
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Hi David
Have to change after a second look at the little charts, from E as a stock chart to being random generated and F to being a stock chart.

So A,C anf F are stock charts and BDE are random.
Reasons below.






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tony_m
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Do stocks really trend? I hope so, otherwise I must have made a lot of money over the last few years by accident. This one is trending and filling the coffers and I have 9 others just like it. I think the answer is yes. Tony_M

BOL


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chart_rider
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One chart by itself cannot be distinguished as random or genuine. However, a group of random charts will combined have a different characteristic than a group of real charts.

The reason for my belief in this statement is:

I trade a purely mechanical system. If I run a portfolio backtest of the system over a large market sample, with the system set for long trading, the result shows the system as statistically profitable.

If, however, I run the exact same system in mirror image, ie set up for short trading, the result shows consistent non-profit.

I believe that a random sample would not display this bias.

CR


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david_louisson
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Ingot54: thanks for the Travis Morien link. He presents thoughts similar to my own, namely that it is mathematically impossible to gain a positive edge from events whose distribution is completely random. Randomness will defeat any attempt at a system: that's why it's impossible to beat the casinos at games like Roulette. Fortuitous guesswork is not indefinitely sustainable.

I haven't read Dr Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book "Fooled by Randomness" - but his reviewer M Crain makes the following point:

"Many people are fooled into believing investment personalities are smarter and more gifted. Or, worse: we are smarter and gifted and can predict the markets consistently. Taleb asserts the markets are largely unpredictable (random walk). He cites numerous Wall Street traders who did extremely well for several years, had high returns, made millions, and were presented by the media as smarter and more gifted than others. Eventually, the vast majority of highly successful traders crashed and burned. Why? Taleb asserts the traders were not really gifted; they were in the right place at the right time (randomly) and then market conditions changed making their trading strategy wrong."

The above quote can be found at: http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/customer-reviews/0812975219/ref=cm_cr_dp_pt/104 -8246159-2674359?%5Fencoding=UTF8&n=283155&s=books

Msparks: the random charts were the first three that Excel generated. I'm not attempting to be sly that would defeat my purpose, which was to make a genuine point. I've been paper trading for 3 months and am currently down around 4.3%, after 68 closed trades. That is the result of emotionlessly (there's no $$$ involved) trading the strongest sectors, following the trends, cutting losses and letting profits run. It's probably true that (especially when I encounter a sequence of losses!) I'm more interested in reading and writing, than actually trading. (I believe that there are many who make more money running seminars and selling systems, than from trading. Personally, I don't feel that it's right to earn money in this way, unless one has already established a long and successful track record.)

If my 'off-topic' posts are annoying people, then I will happily desist.

David


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tony_m
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David, I have read many of your posts and admire your scholarly approach to market analysis which is obviously based on sound research and an organised analytical mindset and it is hard to question your findings.

However, ultimately being in the market is about finding a way to make money with a practical approach which is if you like self adjusting to the circumstances. I notice the comments about the market hotshots who ultimately crash and burn and I suspect that these people and their approach to the markets is unidimensional and fits the right place at the right time theory.

For example if one had taken a punt and placed all of one's funds in a few selected energy or resource stocks a couple of years back one could have made a real killing. if one did the same thing 3 or 4 months back it would be extremely painful right now. One of the reasons that I enforce an eclectic and formulaic approach to stock selection and portfolio balance.

Looking at the description of your your 3 months trial I suspect your results are more about timing than methodology although you dont elaborate on the methodology, the devil is in the detail. For example are you doing this with dailies or weeklies and what sort of timeframe?

Although I have done well over that period it has included a very much higher level than usual of losing stoploss exits due to market volatility. However the winners which have survived the ride have been the difference.

I threw in my post a bit tongue in cheek just to get a practical slant to trend trading in the midst of the learned discussion. No offence intended.

Keep up the good work.....Regards Tony


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dug
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I've seen this commented to you before David and you've probably replied but you appear to be stuck in your casino metaphor.
I've read some of your posts as trying to mechanically duplicate the Casino House take on Random Events.Grab the House Like % in a series of stock market short term plays.
Am I basically reading the hypothesis correctly?

If so then House Odds are mechanically and scientifically governed in Roulette say by the wheel having 0 and 00,this IS their percent and can NOT be replicated in the Stock Market.

If I'm completely way off beam on your theory,I apologise for interupting your thread and in recompense will leave you with a Roulette Tale.
The croupiers are spinning that ball say twice a minute for a Four Hour Shift day in day out.Any casino owner soon learns to encourage the croupier with eye and hand co-ordination skill with the objective of being able to drop the ball into the opposite revolving wheel in at least the sector if not any actual number.
With such a croupier Roulette is no longer Random.It turns into a Popularity Contest!!!

Don't let any dill d'likes of MsParks bother ya David,You got a Gift.
cheers,
jr


Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

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msparks
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Hi David
The strongest trending stocks for the last month or so was one of the worst sectors for a year (cons descretionary), while the energy, materials and utilities sector are correcting a little.

I saw a chart showing the forecast zink,copper prices etc for 2007 and they are extremely lower than todays prices.
I guess the rush to produce and added capacity will create an oversupply and lower prices, makes sense.

Charts in CSM's announcement here (its a 2.5 meg pdf file)

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060307/pdf/3vr7c2kxsv9h1.pdf





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msparks
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Rack off Dug or i will report you.

Now, only a d'dill would take up the challenge of the mystery charts,but if we do not prove which charts are real and which are a random coin tossing event then perhaps all this TA stuff is a lot of rot,right!

The challenge is not an easy one David but i think phsycology of the herd,traders should be able to determine a random chart from a real stock chart.

(are you trading short and long,day trading,indices or stocks,do you just use charts (data),without reading announcements,earnings history,news, dividend dates,reporting dates,do you follow the US sectors,metal prices,use recognised chart patterns?,position size for stop exit,please show us some charts of your trades,the market you trade has had a great run over the last 4 months, hard to understand why you are not making money )




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dug
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I stand corrected.It was my next point but...
David ya basic fundamentals RULES are as simple as ,well,Monopoly w/- out d'Parks Bros copyright.
so,I agree,ya search amongst d'MECHANICAL is ya FLAW,
like at y'floor get some of d'Basics[called FA];
don't listen to d'PRATS that say d'Ultimate in,is to parade out dat SAD,soooo verrrry TIRED cliche-
Is dat what it does dur I made MONEY not noing dat ,DUUUURRRR
so ya got a brain acknowledged,hey Dave?
WOT"S it MEAN,mensa!!!!

Think it best you come in now Mr Louisson and at least give us d'Answers to ya posed Q'zzz.
lookin forward to reading it over my morning coffee.
Truly regards,
jr


Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

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msparks
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Hey,hey
I got 5 stars but i think it was about my opening line and it was only in fun really.(never used a whisle before)
Back to these confounded charts of David's

Here is my interpretations for what they are worth (2 cents )









E and F were done in earlier post.

Now David, how about the truth, i am really hoping i have this in the bag so to speak, not an easy task, thats for sure.

Cheers


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david_louisson
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Dug: apologies for the "Monopoly post" was under the influence, having polished off a good amount of rum with a mate of mine (a ex-Melbourner, can you believe it?). Tried to later delete the post, but I was too late. Hope I'm not normally that boastful, when completely sober. I think you're probably right about my (for better or worse) being stuck in my casino metaphor.

Tony_m: I'm definitely not offended in any way. Quite the contrary, I am both an admirer and a willing student of anyone who can make money consistently from the markets.

Msparks: I really appreciate your getting into the spirit of the exercise I will post the answers in another 24 hours, I promise. Just want to give any latecomers the opportunity to respond.

David


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dovetree
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Whilst I agree with the philosophy that prediction is a waste of time.

Please explain why the production of random number generated charts that look like stock charts can be used as a proof that stock prices don't trend. All it proves is that you can generate charts that look like stock prices from a random number generator.

Random Walk theory was discredited long ago. Only academics who teach economics believe this theory.

The result for them is the quote. " an economist is a person who will tell you tomorrow why what he predicted yesterday didn't happen today"


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hilarius
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Technical Analysis
Definition

A method of evaluating securities by relying on the assumption that market data, such as charts of price, volume, and open interest, can help predict future (usually short-term) market trends. Unlike fundamental analysis, the intrinsic value of the security is not considered. Technical analysts believe that they can accurately predict the future price of a stock by looking at its historical prices and other trading variables. Technical analysis assumes that market psychology influences trading in a way that enables predicting when a stock will rise or fall. For that reason, many technical analysts are also market timers, who believe that technical analysis can be applied just as easily to the market as a whole as to an individual stock.


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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msparks
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David
Can you tell us some more of you trading.

Are you using the methods you developed i seen posted somewhere on the forum.

I think its more about sentiment, and phsycology than mathematics and special indicators because anything can happen,the numbers do not read newspapers and watch world events, markets,indices,unless you are talking about the individual company numbers and even they can let us down in the short to med term but eventually will be recognised and reward investors.

Companies making loads of cash will always reward, but the market looks at the future and what we see today in the shareprice is a picture of things in the future.


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snorter
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All elephants are animals - not all animals are elephants.

I would suggest that stock prices trend for a reason and stock prices go sideways for a reason.
Price charts randomly generated will look a bit like either.

David, I also attempt to get my head around this.


"Failure is not an option"

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david_louisson
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Username: david_louisson

Post Number: 227
Registered: 02-2004

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Thursday, March 09, 2006 - 05:42 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dovetree

My initial statement at the top of this thread: "Do stock prices really trend? Yes, I believe they do. If price movements were completely random, it would be impossible to succeed at trading, in the long run, over any time frame."

From my earlier post, the purpose of this experiment: "The underlying point that this post attempts to make is that there is little immediate visual difference between randomly generated numbers and "trending" prices, but somehow it is apparently significant enough to allow expert traders to profit across the course of a lifetime. I was wondering whether experienced chartists might be able to discern patterns (e.g. levels of support and resistance) in the prices which would enable them to make a correct "guess". My less educated eyes struggle to see them."

I do contend that IF (and I stress IF) there is an exactly 50-50 chance that price will rise or fall at any point, across any time frame, then:
1. All systems (entries, exits, trade management maxims) are rendered impotent, and
2. Costs will ensure that trading is a negative sum game, and
3. Successful trading can be nothing more than fortuitous guesswork, which is not sustainable indefinitely.

I currently believe that such a position can be easily shown to be mathematically unchallengeable, but as always have an open mind, and am willing to be convinced otherwise.

However, because some traders are apparently able to profit consistently across all market conditions, then the probability of a rise or fall can not be exactly 50-50. In other words, there must be patterns/trends/non-randomness (call it whatever you wish) that they are able to exploit. Examples of these kinds of patterns (but the list is by no means complete) are repeated near the foot of this post.

I seek to challenge people to think outside the squares, to contemplate some of the mathematical theory that underlies the exercise. I don't want to annoy anybody.


Hilarius

Thank you for the definition. What I had been told previously was very similar:
https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/12/667393.html#POST87062


Msparks

My current trading situation is described here:
https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/11/750252.html#POST88009

and track record here:
https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/11/750252.html#POST88051

As described, I'm going to back-test some new (short term) ideas that I have. If I can't make short term trading work profitably, I will abandon the casino style idea (very well explained here: http://www.arbtrading.com/expectancy.htm) and try longer term, which I think might be less stressful.


And now, for the answers:

Charts "A", "C" and "D" are randomly generated.

For those who want to check it out:

"B" is a chart of FTSE-100 stock Lloyds Bank (code LLOY) between the dates 26 March 2002 to 3 March 2006.

"E" is a chart of FTSE-100 mining stock Anglo American (code AAL) between the dates 26 March 2002 to 3 March 2006.

"F" is a chart of FTSE-100 retailer GUS (code GUS) between the dates 26 March 2002 to 3 March 2006.

Many thanks to those who participated and/or offered comment.

From my earlier post: "The assumption TA makes is that prices (under suitable market conditions) actually create a GREATER THAN 50% chance that the next bar(s) will continue in the direction of the trend; that they also occasionally break out with increased volume, ping back from extremes, respect trendlines, support and resistance, reverse at Fibonacci retracement areas, etc. It is these types of behavior that defy randomness, and hence potentially allow a trader to profit."

Hence my conclusion (albeit from a very small sample size) is that these kind of patterns are not readily visually discernible on a long term stock chart.

David


(Message edited by david_louisson on March 09, 2006)


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msparks
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Thursday, March 09, 2006 - 07:10 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




I will be eating my hat for while -later


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david_louisson
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Thursday, March 09, 2006 - 09:21 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Mark

Don't feel too bad. Despite the fact that there was no trickery involved, I expect that these would likely have fooled just about anybody.

A few years back I read in a book (by Brian Millard, if memory serves me right) that it was always easy to tell a stock chart from a fake because real prices frequently reversed from obvious areas of support and resistance. This experiment confirmed my skepticism: I don't see too many such areas on any of the above charts.

Thanks for being a good sport.

David


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msparks
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Friday, March 10, 2006 - 05:50 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



David
I would like to spend a day or two explaining and discussing why this little experiment failed but as time restricts i will try in my usual manner without too much organisation and planning.
I hope you can hang around because it appears you are really struggling , even in a market that has had higher weekly closes for 4 months.

By the way, i don't feel bad at all and i hope the "good sport" was not patronising !

Firstly
You are very wrong about there not being areas of resistance and support on the charts you provided.
(personally i think all the analysis i have done on the charts is quite right,and as good as can be expected under the circumstances,static little snapshots in time)
Different time frames reveal different things,equivolume can identify things,candles do reveal much more than an EOD dot.
eod charts are the least informative IMV

Chart A - an excel generated chart (+ 5 or - 5 = 10 point max range)

About all the experiment proved with chart A is that excel will generate random charts with a plus minus range similar to EOD charts selected to look like the random chart.
The plus minus random range is the ATR.
Stock prices are not locked in to an ATR.

What can we conclude from comparing chart A to a real chart CBA on the asx ?







What is even more interesting is looking at the real charts and seeing how analysis would have changed after different timeframes were available.

The charts posted by David were a snapshot in time.
The reason why traders /investors do not look at just the 1 year chart or just the 6 month chart is because each timeframe has a past and if considering a stock buy using TA we should start with all data and slowly zoom in.

I think why the market is beating you up David is because computer models have no brains.
IQ is one thing but EQ is probably the more essential requirement for TA.
Later


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david_louisson
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Friday, March 10, 2006 - 07:35 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Msparks

Please be assured that no attempt to patronise was intended.

I believe that the (UK) "markets are beating me up" partly because I'm encountering the run of losses that every trader experiences from time to time. (Remember, I'm trading short term - a 3-10 day turnaround time). However, in hindsight I've made some mistakes: setting protective stops too tight being one. I'm a newbie, and I'm learning through trial and error; I don't expect to achieve instant success at my first attempt. However, I'm determined to win eventually, given enough time to work it out.

I only know how to crunch numbers - TA makes me the promise that all that is required can be deduced from price and volume; that it's not necessary to study news, fundamentals or underlying sentiment. At least that's what I was told.

Anyway, I have some firefighting on the home front to attend to, will return to the forum shortly.

Best wishes
David


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morton
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Post Number: 74
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Saturday, March 11, 2006 - 12:20 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



B.D,E are fake, they have no clear support/resistance


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stevo
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Post Number: 340
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Saturday, March 11, 2006 - 03:24 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Morton - the answer is already posted above.

A, C & D were the fakes so you managed to pick one of them. Generating random charts is a great exercise. I can get some great looking trends on an artificially created random price chart.

stevo


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msparks
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Saturday, March 11, 2006 - 05:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Morton
David has already said that A,C and D are randomly generated from excel. (fakes)
Up about 4 or 5 posts.

The reason why i think this exercise does not tend to resolve anything,is we are only seeing a sample of the total stock chart.

However, i would have thought a 4 year sample would have been enough to pick the difference between a fake and a real chart.

Perhaps if David could generate a fake chart for the same time frame as a Real, All Data Chart the difference would prove that stock price charts are not random ?

For example chart B is a real chart of uk:LLOY
Shown below the same as Davids sample in the first post.

This is the chart of all data for LLOY which clearly shows support and resistance.


About all i can conclude is :-
- random charts trend
- random and stock price charts look the same if all data is not available

- a 50% win ratio on entry should not mean trading is unprofitable as long as the wins are higher than the loss's plus costs (the hard bit )
- drawdown ?
This may help

application/vnd.ms-excel
risk_of_ruin.xls (67.1 k)



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morton
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I'd rather invest in random charts. There're alot more secure. If you can guarantee no more than a 5 point drop or gain per day, I'd play that system.

msparks - slightly off topic - what do you use to insert text boxes?







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scarlettsmith694
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Username: scarlettsmith694

Post Number: 31
Registered: 05-2019

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Can you share the latest data.
I am a investor from Australia and I like to evaluate the stock before investing on it.


ScarlettSmith

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