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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

A Jaded Method

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jaded
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Username: jaded

Post Number: 250
Registered: 03-2010

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Wednesday, July 21, 2010 - 07:13 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm surprised but not really so.

I mean in the Run Times,this Forum gets all these posts about Systems.
Systems based on Back Testing Decades of data exhaustively, to devise a System,supposedly,that can guide one thru Good Times and Bad.

Why in Modern/Current Times are we getting no posts by these Systems Freaks?Aren't they supposedly backtested a 'solution'?

Oh in the Good Times they are happy and fully prepared to come d'Preen like How Clever I bees but as soon as we Downtrend or go into Consolidation ie not much price change over months,these Systems Types hide out and give No Indication whatsoevere for us 'peasant/pilgrims' on how to make a Buck in these Troubled Times.
Based on their BackTesting etc.

No,whatta we get?Dozens of posts about blessed Elliot waving at us!!
Look those charts are Minute Charts over a coupla days.It's of the nature of presentation of Charts that they run left to right and top to bottom.They LOOK Significant/Important BUT You have to calculate yourself the Percentage Change being illustrated and also calculate the So What Factor.

Like Rudy himself acknowledges-
1]This is pretty Useless for Individual Shares[no matter how Blue Chip]
2]Index Trading is Leveraged/Borrowing/Derivative Based.Rudy doesn't wanna Play that Game and I suggest neither do you.I certainly do not.

So frankly all I see from Wave Analysis is picking within some small percent some Move.I can't make a Buck from this so why bleeding bother?

Anyhow,I ain't on some crusade against 'popular' Rudy and his multi posts on Waves.
I'm just wondering what any others are doing Trading the Market in Shares.
Has every one gone into Currency or something?

Now,we're all supposed to be running an act in the Market as a Business.Small/Part/Big/Full TIME business.

If you've ever been in Business in Anything,one knows that Election Periods are Bad.
Local/State/Federal elections Freeze the Consumer.Might be because gov't budgets freeze,I don't know really WHY? only that..well.Business is Poor during Elections.

So business people take the time to Hone their Methods.Contemplate future Moves.

Personally I'm 'assuming' a Labor Win so I'm not sitting on my hands waiting for a Lib Victory and will be really peeved if it don't happen ie Withdraw from the Market if Labor wins.

So,down here,Down in d'BoonDocks I'm going to work on Momentum Theory.
for fun 'n' profit.

happy trading.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010 - 09:45 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



If one does a Momentum checkout in the current market,you will probably find -
under 10cent Energy[Oil'n'Gas] turn up.
Look wild cat Oil based are THE Momentum/Volatility shares anytime.
It's just d'Nature of the Beast.

Oil shares have this aura.They are forever trying to raise Capital from the Market and they'll go to any lengths on d'Con to get the next hole Drilled.

I reckon Oil Shares EMPLOY a mob of Devotees to dazzle the average Punter/Pilgrim with Science[Tech Talk].
They either employ them or characters Freelance on Oil Shares off their own bat.

We don't see it here at IC but on Active Forums,one can glean d'Gist.

POINT 1 re Momentum shares-When you scan up 2/5,go to an Active Forum and check out the Action there.
I only use Warm Pig/d'Barbque/blessed HC.
Check ya 'Pick' there and glean d'Action.

No chat/not much CAN be Excellent.You may be Base Lining
BUT if warm pig is All Over It?
Risk factor is exponential.

Pilgrims,never believe the Story pushed on Warm Pig.None of that 'stuff' that some 10 cent share is Fundamentally worth 60c/$1.Yeah,the dude seems CONVINCING but you'll find no more posting by such ones when the share is say 6 cents.

I can only advise you to READS the News.What ya looking for is Placements recently at a significant discount in BULK.
ie SP is 10 centish and recent placement was say 7 cents.

It's in the millions NUMBER that's been placed where ya get d'Word.

See it is not unusual for Millions to be Placed yet the SP is significantly ABOVE this placement price.

Ya garden Pilgrim goes-Sophisticated Investors payed LESS for Millions of XYZ but now the company has Finance so it is due Great Things using the Money[from Place] so I,a pilgrim to Mammon will Get On!!

Pilgrims 9/10 you are likely to be being Distributed to.So many Millions Number of Shares are being Marketed to you by d'Sophisticated Investors.

Part of this Marketing is 'learned' posts on Active Chat Rooms.Follow these and one will 'discern' what TA is used to 'justify' but mostly one will see the most high faluting FA and Scenario Ploys employed.

Main Game is to bring in the Buy'n'Hold Brigade,

Anyhow,don't be Smug and think YOU won't fall for this.
The Nigerians have operated their scams for Decades and it's just human nature to fall for variations.

After all,what?some 40% of the Population is gunner vote for Abbott!!

moving forward...later.







" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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sway
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Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 08:14 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded

This is a pretty feeble reply to a couple of really good posts. I would like to put my thoughts down as well as you have done, but I don't have time to give it my full attention.

I try to see other people's point of view but sometimes it seems that there is way too much waffle on IC that doesn't really help anyone. If you dare to challenge this well analysed but largely useless research, it's off to Coventry for you (as you well know)!

I wish you well and look forward to continuation of this thread.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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smithy
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Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 09:13 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded,

As a system trader, I thought I would let you know what I'm up too in a shares point of view.
Nothing, my system filter turned off on 23/4/10. So no trades in shares since then.

My turn on filter is currently close above 4575, but if the market keeps trending down that will come down also.

Anyway hope this clears up one system traders take on the current market.

Cheers


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jaded
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Friday, July 23, 2010 - 09:07 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My latest on Gap Theory-

I'm using gaps,in the past,to 'divine' future Support and Resistance.A past Gap even if subsequently filled MAY still give a future Turning Point Price.

This idea has been 'formulated' by considering/pondering How Gaps are formed.

Gaps takeout various prices on the Depth as Bids or Asks.ie
on the Open there are various Asks at .5/1 cent increments,these are 'consumed' by a higher bid leading to these Asks being sold for a higher price[than was originally asked or intended]

All very basic stuff,hey[bordering on waffle even,sway?]

Thing is that I reckon that the prices within the Gap 'indicate' a price someone was willing to sell at and "They" may be willing to sell at these prices again thus 'explaining' why Gaps get filled often a few days after happening.

It all depends on Who sold the Gap Parcels.
IF they were a Big Holder on d'Distribute of a lot of shares?Well,my reckonings are valid that a Gap denotes price,a Big Seller was calculated/willing to Sell at and so becomes the 'bottom' line they are willing to sell at in the coming days/weeks.
Vice Versa for Big Buyers.

It all boils down to whether Big Money is involved and whether this Big Money is Smart Money too.

See one can get Gaps caused by 'Tip Sheets'.That character in the Melb, Papers whatever comes out on a share and all d'boys'n'gals go with him.Rene Rivikin 'Deal' etc.where Bulk Money swans in on a share at Open,buy at any cost because some 'expert' has told the hoi polloi it's gunner SOAR.

Anyhow,SDM chart shows previous Gaps,some filled/some not but still these gap prices denoted Resistance subsequently.


SDM is also shaping to take out the 200/probably 150D/30week Weinstein set up.
but I'll go into that and sways/smithy's posts reply later.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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visions
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Friday, July 23, 2010 - 05:17 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Smithy,

Just a quick one in regards to your system filter.

You say in post 36 your turn on filter cuts in above 4575 which is a long way above the bottom price action of the pullback in May and July. But, it turned off very close to the top of price action in April on the 23/4/10.

Is this date a misprint? I thought maybe the 28/4/10 or after might have triggered it off to sort of balance it with the turn on level.

If not, interesting indeed.

Cheers ... Visions


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jaded
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Friday, July 23, 2010 - 07:01 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





so smithy,your re-entry 4575 is...well..what?
I assume it's the All Ords or is it the ASX200/300?

Anyhow,your conclusions are Top down.Isn't that the expression?

Personally,I can't be out of the Market for much more than a week.Month tops.
My capital is nowhere near EVER being fully share market orientated but I rely on making better [by far] than Bank Interest on my 'dedicated' bit.[roughly one third of total Liquid]

I try,no matter what,to make Annual Bank Interest in a Month on my "investments' in the share market.

Anyhow,chart of All Ords above with it's 'flayling/failing' MA's clearly illustrates that the GENERAL Market,TA-wise is not a place for the hoi polloi to Play.

However,even using MA theory as it's taught/written in Books about?one finds a variety of shares 'indicating/signaling' PLAY.

Now it's all well'n'good to come the Big Picture Method ie General Market is in Uptrend DEFINITELY and thus be triggered to come on IN[with ya fancy backtested systems]
but what if this Consolidation Pattern goes on for Months?

I'm talking that the Market Index waves around and 3 months[say] from now,the Index is back at the level of now?

False Break Outs is what I'm discussing.

Index hits 4575[smithy's figure] but then retraces and I assume such a 'System' Trader is off on d'Lurch?

In these 'harrowing' times,I'm trying to 'promote' a Better Way for what is Small Time Trading[defined as achieving ANNUAL Term Deposit Rate MONTHLY on say $20grandish]
I have about $70 grand to play with,personally.

Basically that's my ambition.Annual Term Deposit rate Monthly.

enough for now.
cheers


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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sway
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Friday, July 23, 2010 - 08:35 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded

To me SGM doesn't yet have a particularly good Weinstein profile. It would have to punch through $1.80 with a couple of good 5 million plus volume weeks. Even then, the resistance at $2.00ish is too close for me.
SDM

Just my 2c of course.

I'm more interested in these ones

gmg

fkp

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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smithy
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Saturday, July 24, 2010 - 07:25 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Visions,

Those dates are correct that I typed.

Jaded,

The beauty of the trading world is there are so many instruments to trade, that one can have their mechanical system and trade it as they trust it and then there are indexes, forex, etc.
You are concerned a mechanical system trader can't make money in this a channelled environment, and a trend system trader will struggle, that is why I'm out at the moment.

But trading a mechanical system on the forex keeps me interested.

Cheers


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visions
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Monday, July 26, 2010 - 11:57 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Smithy,

Thanks for the reply, I thought you were just using a single MA to turn your system on and off but now realise you must have a couple of things going on there.

As I said, interesting.

Cheers ... Visions


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jaded
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Sunday, August 01, 2010 - 11:11 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



sway,didn't i read some years back that you nearly got a 'ticket to kingdom come' as a powder monkey,a mining worker?
Why when you have work experience in mining,do you now concern yourself with Come Backs by Grocery Suppliers and Property Developers?
My sister-in-law worked for Goodman Fielder.Anecdotally it's no wonder they have declined and[imho] may never again regain their past prices.

As for FKP,I held that in the 90's when they were Forester Parker;$1 and paying 10% dividend.Haven't looked into them for years.Are they still big in Retirement Homes or rather Retiree Developments?
You do know that Industry is in 'disrepute'?
like those deals where "Management" get all the Capital Gains and provide no Nursing Home Care but in fact chuck ya out if you become incapacitated?these property Giants are ...well..no wonder FKP is bouncing along d'Dead Ball Line,hey?

sway,I thought you did some FA work/research on ya watches.Are you just,now,just hawking over the Top 200 looking for the Fallen from Grace?
Just thinking they've Fallen because the General Market has,so if the ASX picks up so will they?

Companies get thrown OFF the ASX200/300 you realise,never to return to it.

Anyhow,I'm just doing my howl against the Wind about how Some FA is not Useless in Share Trading.Especially in Shares as opposed to Derivatives.

I reckon,sway,that a lot of TA is developed for Derivatives Traders.
Like the Futures Market where one is expected to take a score of positions day in day out.
I recently read a compendium of Trader Wisdom by a dozen or more pronounced World Class Top Traders.It was on Stop Loss.Anyhow,at the conclusion they had mini-bios on all these 'Gun Traders' and most,even all of them were Broker Desk Derivatives Legends[with a coupla book writers]

Anyhow,even my 'mentor' Denis Gartmann is Futures Orientated and I reckon you have to take that particular bias/field into account when you just want to go Long in some shares for Fun'n'Profit
ie a lot of TA 'signals'even philosophy are for heavy day trading 'professionals'/broker types not me.

happy trading.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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sway
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Jaded

No that wasn't me, although I have had a bit to do with mines.

The stocks I hold can be from any sector as long as it fits my Weinstein analysis. I pay little attention to fundamentals. Best of luck to the planet watchers, wave guessers and other things weird and bizarre. But I DO have the 1974 Dylan album! Y'get m'drift?

You might be confusing GFF (the food company) with GMG? FKP is from the same sector and the chart looks similar. A year of so of consolidation is what I'm interested in.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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azworkinit
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Monday, August 02, 2010 - 06:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



No Jaded, that was that Irish fella in some far flung country with rocks wizzin past his head. Seemed to know his stuff too. Back when we first met as I recall!. Rgds Az.


"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

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jaded
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azwork-
tut tut fancy flaming the Almighty Teefer down d'Barbque!!

did you pay no attention whatsoever to his Heart/Cup status?No you just wade in at T4P.
Tut Tut.

I read your other posts in the bosoms of Warm Pig on Thunder.Even how you were $50grand up but still uncertain whether to Cash In.

tut,tut Az.What happened when it found Uranium is Irrelevant to setting a Pattern for Yesterday's find of Copper.

Azwork,d'Boys just LOVE to speculate in Uranium.Especially compared to Copper.It's the Paladin Tale of an under 10cent share that went to TEN BUCK$$$.
It could happen again say d'Pilgrims and they descend like a pack skiting about how much they're gunner make next week on the latest "Discoverer".

Anyway,I just hope you got over Borrowing to Invest[I remember your first posts here Adz]Did you sell ya Lobster Licences,or something?

Noticed you using the term 'nearology",in relation to Sandfire[isn't it?]Are you educated in Mine Set Ups because you work in that Industry?

I would of thought that Mines get set up over the Greatest Concentration and the Most to establish viable Mine Life ;not just dig up some High Grade Crumbs that peter out in say 6 months even 5 years.
Isn't Mine Life preferable on say a 20year 'shelf life'?

For Copper I'm in AQR but I'm not in so far that I'm expecting better than 50Grand profit.
Watch Out Adz.THX is a Speculative.You could be out on d'Field,blowing up some stope,away from your Computer and get Ruined.

Personally,I monitor the BarBque for Pump'n'Dump 'artists'.Coves who natter about X will be 10/50times more in Price Soon or in the Long Term Years.

It really encourages the Basic Newbie Buyers.All this Mining stuff Facts.
Euphoria,az stop working on it!!

cheers.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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azworkinit
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Ah, Ive missed you Jaded. I still have the license, and just got lucky again after GBG?. Maybe. If I didn't borrow, I wouldn't earn. Ya gotta spend money t make money!.Yeh they're a speccie, but one with a lot of fundamental potential. You think I should cash in on the crumbs?.WAt if they have great gold assays and back up with a bunch of good holes, then hit at Curara?. Thats the beauty of the speccie! Rgds Az. Oh yeh T4P on d bbq?. He obviously missed the boat to be posting that rubbish.Probably got in today at 79c.


"Success is a lousy teacher.It seduces people into thinking they cannot lose."BILL GATES.

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sway
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Jaded

You were on the money with SDM. Volume and SP still rising. Let's see how it behaves above $2

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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jaded
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I've been and gone in Sedgman.It attracted my attention because it got coal mine contract developments out of New Hope.

I 'like' Mining Contractors.Basically because they pay dividends at a rate beyond/higher than Material Shares even BHP.This attracts long term holders and general buying interest that leads to Trading/Capital Gains.

Especially when Brokers start spruiking them and Div Institutions like Perpetual start buying them for d'Widows'n'Orphans Income Funds.

I rarely hold them to when the Dividend is paid,these days, but they[Contractors] used to pay 10% when Banks did 7%ish.

d'Trick is that the SIZE of the Contracts is a bit irrelevant.It's how PROFITABLE these contracts turn out to be.Contracts can be for multi Million$$ BUT they can still end up Earning Peanut$ even Lo$$!!

McMahon used to be a leader at making actual Loss from 'getting' multi million 'deals'.
Anyhow,sway Long Term Chart.Is there still a drink in returning to All Time High?


SDM is an 'improved' operation now so it might not have yet seen it's Best Run?
shorter term for studying possible new entry


$2 is probably a natural resitance-round figure syndrome
still it could be quite worth it to,at least,Watchlist/read some news on What's Happening and guaging possibilities for,say a $2.50 Go?

happy trading


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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sway
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Plenty of momentum there Jaded. Doesn't look like $2 will stop it.

SDM

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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jaded
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well,$2 did stop it,sway.the round figure hoodoo

If that's a short term rounded top AND it cracks 185,we may see support next sub 170ish.
Don't know why it's petered out,just run out of steam.
At least a reply from you,sway won't include wavy,astro babble!!




" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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sway
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Funny how $2 stopped it like a brick wall, but volume on the pullback has been small. I wouldn't be expecting it to drop below $1.80. On a Guppy CBL trade it is still alive. But there are plenty of other rip snorters at the moment.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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breaker_1
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Hey Jaded,
GRR making a move any thoughts?


When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.

Alexander Graham Bell





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jaded
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breaker-sold out of GRR today.Don't think it's got much more in it.
Some broker report came out awhile back 'predicting value at around 70 cents'.This will discourage buyers at this level.


I'm in SHD [the old Batavia BTV] for Iron Ore.
I'm also 'plotting' more PEK but will post some reasonings Sunday in it's Short Term thread.

re GRR- it needs to announce that new mine in WA.They're still seeking one last Enviro Approval and probably clarity Resource Tax wise re their particular method of Iron Ore extraction ie as to WHEN any Super Profits kick in.

SHD on the other hand are just Beginning JORCing up their Reserves.Mining Shares in the 20cents range usually get a Go On price appreciation wise during this stage.
Maybe I'll do an update SHD in it's specific thread too this weekend.
Got a cat looking daggers at me,he thinks I've been unfaithful with other animals and is doing d'Standover wanting food and attention so gotta go b4 d'tooth'n' claws come out.
grrrrrrrrr ain't purring!!


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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sway
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Thursday, October 14, 2010 - 08:56 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SDM having a good crack at the $2 level again.

SDM

Still interested Jaded?

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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jaded
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Friday, October 15, 2010 - 03:33 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





Am I interested?
well it's just getting back to it's former price/Market Cap back in the days pre GFC.
It has 'improved' it's business model ie not just a Coal Contractor and is shaped as a contractor 'penny' low/mid cap that could be compared to the Blue Chips perhaps Worley or Leighton re Performance.I doubt it would compare favourably with MND but probably is 'thrashing' other 'minor' contractors who's names and codes currently escape me.

Is this a senior moment or symptom of grog abuse??

Anyhow,sway the question is are you in Sedgman?
Do you research by comparison over say 1 year with other sector listed companies?

If you are and do?
Why not open a SDM thread in Long Term and give us the benefit of your angles?

Just please don't do 3 lines including Weinstein Trading in your expose.
Weinstein,Weinstein,Wine in a Stein was so thrashed in this Forum it drove me to drink!! True!

of course the Waves and Stars kept me on it!!

cheers


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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sway
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Friday, October 15, 2010 - 09:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded

No, I'm not holding SDM. I know they do coal wash plants and they have an office just off Coronation Drive, but that's about it. No expose I'm afraid. The charts look pretty good. Just for something different, here are my short term and long term MMA charts and an equivolume. The latter is most impressive.

sdm1

sdm2

sdm3

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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jaded
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Sunday, December 19, 2010 - 12:06 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Been off being an Advocate voice for a 'client' battling the Police,Courts/Lawyers/Legal Aid/Rental Home Authority;Mental Health/Medical/Hospital System/Creeps of Landlords for my 'nutcase' client.
but no I ain't fishing to get bonkers in Trading Psych as another 'client'.

Anyway I haven't been paying too much attention to the Share Market and so I've got 'caught' with a bottom drawer of short term trades that have soured into long term holds.
[SHD,THX,PEK].

I didn't double down on any of these and my New Year Plot is to pyramid 'stakes' when they break above my Break Even.
I've bought these,I think at pretty good prices but have been looking at 20% Paper Losses,sometimes more,since purchase.

I had no Alternatives to go for so I didn't cut losses as one should.Besides I had enough Negative Fronts to deal with and didn't want to Open the ShareMarket to add to them.

Anyhow,that's my excuse for executing Poor Trading Methods.
My life outside got in the way!!

Now I want to give you d'Word on a high possibility of Action during the Xmas/New Year Period.I think this year the Market opens again Tuesday 28th? to half day Friday 31st? and has a 4 day week Tue 4th-Friday 7th Jan 2011.
This is the period I'm talking about,these 2 weeks broken up.

Now Institutions,'sophisticated' investors and d'joe'n'jill blows withdrew pretty much this week just gone.
It's bleediong Xmas and it's normal for the 'respectable' citizens to concentrate on such things as Xmas instead of worrying about the Bleesed ShareMarket.
Volume drops,Action stagnates and well,it's considered one is pretty sad,lonely and blue if you go hawking over the computer during the "Holidays"as a recreational activity.

No you should be risking Death on the Roads going to some over crowded holiday destination.

Or having all the relatives around you haven't seen for a year [unless there was a wedding or funeral]get them round so you can gorge on sub standard cooking for a crowd after you've had too many drinks because it's bleeding Hot and you start musing about the cost of 5kg of prawns yet you got only 3 of themn with some various weeds that gets called Salad with yesterday's bread roll on the side!!!

yeah Hooey on Xmas.

But back to d'Word on Xmas ShareTrading.

Pilgrims to Mammon often trade Xmas/New Year Week.I have often observed that some shares take off for a Good Run during this period.
These are speculative shares not Blue Chips that your mother or partner would know the name of and 'approve' you investing in.No these shares will be Wild Cat Pennies that go into a Parabolic trend during the 2 weeks mentioned.

You find them by doing Momentum Searches/Rates of Price Change happening anytime from this Pre Xmas Week onwards.

See unlike other weeks when Momentum runs in a share occurs,Xmas/New Year week has a lot of holidaying Day Jobbers on line the sharemarket and chat rooms like the BBQ to get excited and put their money down on a Goer.

After all they're motivated to get that 5kg of prawn money back or they're looking for drinking money and that means they're looking for $3/500 in a day,say.

Little fish swarm to Goers/Tips/d'Tale of a Speccie and play pass the parcel Xmas/New Year.
That's why there can/will be 'Thin" Volume yet substantial price rises.
Not only will there be small 3-10 grand$$ buys but the sells will be similar.Observe Market Depth and Course[Curse] of Sales not some lagging indicator like MACD or Williams whatever.Look for patterns in day charts for support/resistance not daily or weekly.

Though on holidays,Institutions/Brokers may have left turned on the Bot/Computer Trading Platform BUT the type of share most likely to go parabolic Xmas/New Year is very unlikely to be much bothered in it's action by piddling,small parcel bot trading ie such will be swamped by the day jobbers doing their once a year day trading.
Some broker or computer boffin shouldn't be able to cap this action.

Realise that the big holders with shares to sell may also be sidelined in the holiday spirit.Besides the buyers are buying small and Big Top20 Holders will have difficulty selling into this Holiday Market even if they're aware of it,still checking the share price hourly/daily or even Friday News Years Eve.

In fact keep track of Depth and Curse for say $50grand+ single trade hitting especially the sell.That'll be a warning to sell or maybe wait on Buying.Big Sells may absorb the eager Buyers and Kill the Run.

Anyway,if anyone reading this and is going to possibly participate in Xmas/New Year share trading in such shares,
how about 'sharing' your 'alerts'/buys/ and sells Live2Air,as they happen?
Don't come the 'precious' of Oh that'd be Ramping and besides others may get on to it and lose me money etc blahj blah blah.
What?you'd rather post end of day about the 'fortune' you made today?

give us a break.Be a Perpetrator not a Poseur@!!

I'm anticipating PEK could be a Xmas/New Year runner but all the boxes to be ticked outlined above have not been ticked.
PEK has the vibe to perform this Xmas/New Year TRICK.
but the vibe,getting the vibe,knowing even of d'VIBE?

long way down the track in the pilgrimage to Mammon.

cheers


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Sunday, December 19, 2010 - 07:25 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



So I've had a few drinks and am now "loose" with a bit of time on my hands.
Please note Loose is not a derivative of Lose.Like Looser is a gramatic/how it sounds spelling of Loser but it's NOT Right. Only real LOSERS spell it Loosers.Losers who haven't had an effective Education.

Further on identifying a Parabolic Runner in the Xmas/New Year period.

For a overview,a multidude of choices of Momentum shares, one can buy the Financial Review and refer to the Share Price section,Movers/Shakers section.[Months since I've bought d'Fin so hopefully this section still exists]
Alternatively your broker may provide an intra day of % gainers.I suggest over 12 cent shares are the best bet.

Personally I refer to the Barbque,Warm Pig/Hot Copper Most Posted about Shares List and 'correlate' the Movers from elsewhere with it.
I prefer Movers/Momentumers to have 'small' Shares On Issue and in,what I know,to be a currently "Hot" sector.
I NEVER buy a Bio Tech and am very leary of Energy/Oil Driller stocks BUT Oil Stocks are often the market 'darling' of Xmas/New Year I'm talking 'bout.

So if ya wanna play,really wanna play Xmas/new year then you'll have to swallow d'fear and put ya money down on a WildCat.

Never know,
it could shake ya Soul.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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breaker_1
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Monday, December 20, 2010 - 12:43 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Jaded thought you might have dropped off the perch

Bought some off these at 28c
Looks like something going on.... going by volume Thurs lets hope an nice ann coming up
Might have to ramp em up at HC





When one door closes another door opens; but we so often look so long and so regretfully upon the closed door, that we do not see the ones which open for us.

Alexander Graham Bell





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jaded
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Saturday, January 01, 2011 - 10:08 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



So did anyone else run a scan on movers/momentumers during last week? I did one based on 20% in the last 3 trading days and kicked up quite a few.

They were mostly Gold sector with a few diversified mining and a couple of Medical/BioTechs.I'm working thru the divers miners culling out the Gold related ones.I don't follow gold miners,there's just too many of them and they never seem to ever go into Actual Production just go on for years about how they're gunner,much like Uranium shares.

Anyway,I like a penny that has at least the possibility of doing something,getting a cash flow happening so it doesn't have to go every 6 months to the 'sophisticated investor' market.

So from my scan I've come up with a Dozen shares to check out.Theory is that this new year week some of them will continue their Momentum.
Why?well they've come to the attention of the 'players' wanting to still play while everyone else [d'Respectables] want to holiday.
Thing is that,at this time,Momentum isn't caused by News being released so it CAN be that the share is being accumulated in anticipation of early Jan runs.

Of course it can also be being jiggled about by a 'gang' of day traders taking advantage of a low supply [because most holders are 'holidaying']and so the day boys can 'inflate' demand and thus make the price move up into the 'make a killing' fields.

Here's the list I gleaned from the scan mentioned-
ARH,CMP,CSD,GLA,HRS,KOR,NCR,RHM,UNX,WAL,WRM and ZNC.

kick those charts up and try and take 1-3 out of it.After all one can't buy a dozen shares on Tuesday's Open,can you?
So you have to apply your Confidence Criteria based on the assumptions you personally make after research and chart reading,right?

Here's an interesting one that illustrates how the time period chosen causes a significantly different perspective especially during rapid chart scans.In this case 12months compared to 6.



A News Scan of NCR also 'reveals' how Dow Jones 'news' gets misapplied.Australia's NCR is a Coal Miner in NSW wannabe,however Yank NCR is something in the Movie Business so you get all these irrelevant news breaks about NCR and Movies from Dow Jones in a Coal Company.
Confusing to the too quick prospective buyer doing research,hey?

anyway,just an example of pitfalls in watchlist selecting by chart checking and/or news absorbtion.







" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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jaded
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Monday, January 03, 2011 - 10:11 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



More pitfalls in being too quick to dismiss while watch list culling.

Wavenet for WALlys.Just by name and initial broker description this appears as a Technology/Computer Stock however by checking it's News one discovers it's doing the Changeover to a Materials stock ie it's doing a Back Door Listing/Taking a defunct/gone broke Tech Company and getting into Real Work exploiting our great Aussie Resources.
Seems it has some tempting tenements like adjacent to BHP etc so it Could be 'significant' as a Developer/Driller etc.


Other 'interesting' ones in the list are
KOR,blimey this is a mini-me Peak Resources out of the Rum jungle instead of Africa [like PEK].
KOR is Phosphate/Rare Earths and Uranium with an IPO off shoot in Gold!! Got to be a Company Maker in that lot surely?


For all you Uranium Goers out there here's Uranex UNX.It's exploring Tanzania and there the Chinese are 'helping' meaning that there will be No Gov't Objections in mining uranium IF the right concentrations etc are found.[unlike Australia].
So if I was to go Uranium that'd be one of my criteria-Non Australian Tenements preferably in Africa.Also Tanzania is one of the more 'stable' states in Africa so that's another tick.


forgot to add that in my scan criteria [20%+ last week] that I put in price between 15 cents and $2.This is just personal criteria to do with Leveraging,position sizing etc.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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