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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Another Lousy Share CEY

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » Another Lousy Share CEY

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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 3042
Registered: 03-2003

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Thursday, June 11, 2009 - 11:05 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I bought into CEY at $2.50 last Tuesday against its more illustrous NHC which is supposed to have a better looking chart.I like both of them, but I thought in the short term CEY will make me more money. In the longer term, I don't know. As I said,I don't mind owning NHC either. NHC already has a big rise, whereas CEY has been consolidating for quite some time within a range. I used to own GCL which I sold recently, so I intended to replace GCL with another coal stock.
CEY had some problems before which it eventually solved last year. On the 14th Jan 2008, CEY went ex, for the return of capital of $1.88 after selling the Anvil and Tahmoor project to Extrata. It's share price was $2.60 then.
I select CEY because I like share going off in an early trend and like to ride it a long way. As share taking off early is more volatile,it needs monitoring more than one which is more established.I look at it as higher risk, higher gain, the initial bigger jump in SP is my profit for my labour and for my risk taking. I didn't think I would have a second chance, as I missed it last week.
(PS: Not advisable to follow, without doing your own research).









-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Thursday, June 11, 2009 - 11:17 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

Like you I bought into CEY for a short term trade and was made to feel that it was not as good a buy as NHC. My thoughts however were that CEY was a better proposition for a short term trade than NHC and that turned out to be the case as I made a reasonable profit over a week on CEY and a small loss on NHC. Fortunately I had a lot more money on CEY than I did on NHC.

For the longer term I suspect that NHC is the better buy but I am not really doing long term stuff at present.

It looks to me that CEY may be making itself a flag which would be promising on a short term basis.








"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

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peterloh
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Thursday, June 11, 2009 - 12:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Good on ya.Many long term trades started off being a short one. Followers of Weinstein would probably think that CEY is a "sounder" trade, for the simple reason that it has established a base and it may be an initial stage 2. Before going off on this topic, they are probably other criteria which I am not going into here. I bought UGL when it was $1. UGL was giving many holders ulcer then. I jumped off too early at about $4.50. It has done very well since, but the biggest percentage gain was the initial period,when I got in.Lets hope CEY go that way too. CEY, being a resource stock has to be monitored very closely.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Friday, June 12, 2009 - 11:07 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



CEY has broken straight through the resistance level of $2.85 effortlessly. The next resistance level is $3.60.CEY retested the $2.50 support level 3 times before taking off.
I interpreted as the strength it build up before taking off. With the price of oil going up will assist CEY, though the strengthening ozzie $ reduces its profitability, unless it has hedged its currency.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Friday, June 12, 2009 - 12:11 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

You know that I liked CEY as a short term stock and it has broken up through the resistance that you speak of but I do believe that we may have a bit of a short term retracement based on the candle that is just forming.





"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

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peterloh
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Friday, June 12, 2009 - 03:14 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

This morning would have been a good time for you to take profit on CEY. I do short term too, but I work differently, as I normally like to ride the trend, so I do have a different tolerant level. $2.85 is the support level, but this one may use a round figure, ie $3 and continue on from there.Good Luck.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Saturday, June 13, 2009 - 12:18 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Weekly chart of CEY still looks good.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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Sunday, June 14, 2009 - 10:21 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi guys,
I don't have any CEY but do have opinions.
My chart shows an almost perfect 5 wave Elliot impulsive structure.
Wave 3 is marginally shorter that the textbook wave 3 which should be 1.618 - being only 1.382 times wave 1. Wave 5 is identical to wave 1 just as it should be. What should follow are the three corrective waves (A lower low, a lower high and another lower low) that may take the price back to somewhere around $2.40. Then in a perfect world the next impulsive 5 wave structure will follow.
If such a correction is within your trading rules and you you can live with it, keep holding otherwise you may wish to take profits now. The longish top tail on Friday's candle suggests many have done just that. If you want to buy into CEY wait for the next impulsive wave 2 to complete and then hop in for your chop.




I do it doji style !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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rdumas
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Sunday, June 14, 2009 - 10:55 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hershy,

I totally agree with your analysis. I would expect the CEY wave C to terminate in the region bounded by the two red lines shown on the following chart (ie, $2.43 ~ $2.53).





There is strong support around the $2.53 ~ $2.54 levels so a bounce is likely at those levels. The $2.54 level would be as near as damn it to the 38.2% retracement level of the complete up range.


"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

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peterloh
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Sunday, June 14, 2009 - 12:54 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi hershy and rudy,

Thank you for sharing your thoughts.Look like you have a point using Elliot Waves.

The weekly chart does look attractive with big volume coming in and the visual white candles.The market is relatively buoyant and buyers may continue with where they left last Friday.

I have a feeling both our views could be right, depending on one's time frame and trading style.I like riding the trend and I am not a day trader. I will definitely give consideration on both your views.Once again thank you for taking the time to post here.You know you are always wellcome.For visitors of this thread, they will have a choice now, by either taking profit and come back later on, or like lazy me,hoping to get on to the start of a rising trend.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Monday, July 20, 2009 - 11:45 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The morning star developed recently and the warning given by hershy and rudy were warning enough for me to exit my short term trade with a small profit. I still have a hold on my longer term trade and in fact has added more on to it with the retrace. I see coal is back in demand despite the steep cut in its export price recently. This is only a short term thing as demand has picked up in a big way and the view on base metal has to be appraised again. The reopening of more furnaces in China and now by BSL decision, not only to reopen but to bring forward with its opening is a sign things have picked up tremendously. The share prices of OST and BSL are also another indication, that business is flowing back into this sector.The short term chart, shows that MACD is turning up and the long term weekly chart really tell the story.I expect there is a margin of 20% at least in this one by the end of the year and that is being conservative, probably it will get there by the end of this quarter.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Tuesday, July 21, 2009 - 12:56 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



CEY - Of the 5,350,972 shares transacted yesterday as reported by the Stock Exchange,319,697 of these are reported short sells which was 5.97% of yesterday's trade and 8.55 % of the issued capital of 373,793,306 shares on issue.
This is interesting as the Bollinger Bands are tightening and it has to breakout, a matter of time.CEY has previously broken out on the 1st of June and since then has retraced to a low of $2.14. CEY has been moving up gradually to the current SP of $2.40.By the end of the month we will know, whether CEY has continue on its path.

Due to the bullishness of iron ore SP, coal will be needed to fire up the kilns and I believe coal demand will be increased, so will the price of coal.CEY has already reported that their contract domestic supply are expiring allowing them to export their coal at a higher price then previously.It has been reported that their existing contracts to their Japanese customers, their biggest buyers are the second highest on record. Once all domestic contracts expired, their supply price will improved further,so will their end result.Commodity prices have continued to improve. I have taken the opportunity to add more of CEY to my medium term holding at this price.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Tuesday, July 21, 2009 - 03:28 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Big volume going through CEY currently.



-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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baysider
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Tuesday, July 21, 2009 - 03:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter - it's just leapt 5%, can't see why? Your timing was perfect

Baysider


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gdd3
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Hi Peterloh...

Just an opinion, now that it looks like we are going to get a close above the $2.44 resistance that CEY has been threatening to go thru for the last 3-4 days it looks like she may very well make a move towards the middle blue line shown on on the chart below. Risk, for your medium-term trade, appears now to be the lower blue trend-line(abt $2.32c as of today).



Good luck with her.

Dolphin


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peterloh
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Hi dolphin, your daily chart does not reflect the volume. According to your chart, it may visit the $2.32 trend line as shown in your pitchfork.With the rising coal price, CEY is getting, the long term trend is very likely to be up.
Who knows with all these shorters around, they will do anything? I am sticking to my plan and hopefully, CEY will go on from here.My call is whether the chart reflects what is happening in the real world, before the report goes off.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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Tuesday, July 21, 2009 - 07:24 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



CEY had a deeper correction than I anticipated but as they all do, it found support. It is now approaching the apex of wave 1 around $2. to be followed by the corrective wave 2.
I would expect wave 5 to finish above $3.30




I do it doji style !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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mook
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Hi hershy, I am a fan of yours and do agree with your current analysis of CEY.If CEY is spot on and run true to Elliot Waves, using Fibonacci calculation, this one should be on its way up with retracement in between, like the 2nd and 4th waves.Having said that I am very impressed by the volume today and wonder whether it plays a part in which the waves will develop further on. Nowadays, I pay a lot of attention to volume in understanding the effect of accumulation and distribution from the volume transacted.
Your previous short term analysis was spot on.As the retracement was exaggerated, I understand this will be compensated by a prolonged climb on the way up.


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peterloh
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Wednesday, July 22, 2009 - 11:26 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



We have a very good analysis of CEY from different angles, with dolphin's Andrew Pitchfork and our in house chartist,hershy on Elliot Waves. Both the analysis are credible and very probable. What a perfect presentation of the Elliot 5 waves, followed by the 3 waves in the last pattern!The way CEY travelled today and the volume transacted, it is hope the first wave will go a wee bit longer.Below is how CEY finished for the day.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Wednesday, July 22, 2009 - 11:37 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For long termers, the monthly chart of CEY looks even more promising.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 03:38 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



CEY has another day with big volume. I smell something is on, a fund manager increases its stakes or some new party is interested and doing something about it. The next 2 weeks will be interesting, in view of the volume of transaction in CEY these 3 days.It is a sign of accumulation, and once this is over, usually the SP has some big moves.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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Could someone with a paid version of Incredible Charts please post a daily and weekly equivolume chart ?
Thanks


I do it doji style !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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peterloh
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Friday, July 24, 2009 - 03:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi pete, as per your request.
The daily chart is 6 monthly, whereas the weekly chart is for 9 months. Weekly chart shows big volume on purchase.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Monday, July 27, 2009 - 10:59 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Interesting statistics, CEY has 16% short on over 6 million shares traded last Friday.What is the total shorts todate?Blue sky after $3.20. When will we get there?


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Anyone told CC about this one? Look like it is threatening to breakout on its recent range. The volume trade gives an indication that it is going to do it any time now.
Lets keep this one to ourselves, hershy.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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Peter,
I think he found out !

BTW, if this level holds, it's a blind Freddie.




The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, itís made in the sitting.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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dennis_menace
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On the up again today on increased volume.

However, I wouldn't buy into it until it closed above $3.50.

Here is the reason why.




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peterloh
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Saturday, August 15, 2009 - 10:28 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dennis,

It is likely that $3.50 will be smashed next week, despite a poor finished at the DOW this morning.
CEY is due to report during the week, and I suspect it will be a much improved outlook for the coal sector. China is today a large importer instead of being a net exporter.
For the price being paid for Felix Resources, CEY is very undervalue. With no substantial holders on the shareholder list, CEY is a very likely candidate for an overseas predator that need their coal.They are receiving better prices for their coal then ever before.Once the $3.50 level has been overcome, there is a new lot of traders that want to jump onboard like yourself, but first let us get there first.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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gdd3
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Saturday, August 15, 2009 - 02:22 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What a great run CEY has had over the last 6 weeks(as well documented by its followers here). I include here an updated chart of the one I posted back on July 21st that is still very much relevent. The "draw" of the middle blue line of the pitchfork, once she got that close above $2.44, was finally fulfilled in Friday's action closing right at that line.

The interest now is where to from here? Well as most have suggested here it all seems very positive and its hard not to agree with Friday's action being a breakout above the June swing high and resistence at $3.22 and on good volume to boot. What I find particularly interesting is the nature of the wave move up from its March 3rd low at $1.51; it does appear to be some sort of 5-wave move as suggested by Hershy, an irregular 5-wave move in fact, which means the bottom of the 4th wave($2.07) "dipped" below the high of wave one($2.43H...April 6th) and wave 3, whilst longer than wave 1, is not the longest wave, wave 5 usually is. In addition, if this is an irregular, Elliot also suggests, that the minimum 5-wave length would be equal to wave 3, and that comes in at $3.56, but more likely 1.618 times wave 1...$4.57 . However, short-term momentum oscillators are suggesting that we should get a breather very soon but most likely this will only mean a minor pullback...say somewhere in the $3.20 - $ 2.95 band.

For those interested in Fibo. No's, Friday's close at $3.44 is a "smidgeon" above the 38.2% retracement level from CEY's June 08 high down to the March 09 low. And, the $4.57 level mentioned above is right on the 61.8% retracement of the same range. If we were to look at the time we have taken to get to present levels we have run more than the 61.8%(66.6%) time frames which also favours this move needs to run a little longer(100% of time)before a possible finish to this phase. So, refering to my "chrystal ball" maybe if we are to see the $4.57area maybe we we get there by Nov. 6th if all is perfect BUT irregular waves are the least perfect waves of all????

I'm sure a few of us will be watching with interest over the next week or so. Me, if this gets somewhere near $3.56 on Monday or Tues. I'll lighten off but raise my stop on the rest somewhere below the $2.94 recent swing low.

Thats my 2-cents worth of OPINION only! Good luck with her fellow CEY'ers.



Dolphin

(Message edited by gdd3 on August 15, 2009)


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dennis_menace
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Saturday, August 15, 2009 - 09:46 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



As both Peter & Dolphin have said today it appears that this could be the start of something bigger - only time will tell.

Here is a weekly bar chart that shows what Dolphin was saying about the Fib. You can see the volume as been increasing in a positive manner bore out by the OBV.




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hershy
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Back on August 10, that swing low held and it was a blind Freddie and CEY went on to bigger and better things to make a nee high @ $3.57. That was the end of wave 5 which was followed by a short wave 4. The SP is trying to get above this apex of wave 3 and if tha t happens, we're in wave 5 with a target @ $4.05.
Then the 3 wave corrective phase.





The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, itís made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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peterloh
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Sunday, September 13, 2009 - 10:54 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Summing up courage to attack the resistance level again?




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Hi Peter,

Anything is possible in the market but we currently have something close to wave equality in the two up legs of this move. At present the 38.2% retracement level of the main move down is acting as resistance to the current upward move.

Sure, overhead resistances are always there to be broken but it remains to be seen if this is the time.

Not shown in the chart below is the fact that the TMF is negative and the volume has been decreasing over the last 7 trading days that CEY has been trending up. These are not real positive signs for a successful test of resistance.






"...if one tortures a dataset long enough, it will confess to anything!"

- Andrew Lo

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peterloh
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Rudy, CEY has been going up from the 21st July to the 12th August on diminishing volume, except the 10th of August.On the 14th August, the breakout was on a bigger volume than usual.The days preceding the breakout is important, but the day of the breakout may decide everything.
There are 2 things in CEY favour, the Bollinger Bands are compressing on a share that is up trending and CEY is still trending upwards in a channel. On the negative side, September and October are not good months for trading.However,as we are coming off from such a low base, we look towards the potential that is ahead.



-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Thursday, December 03, 2009 - 05:44 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



CEY is all dressed up and ready to go somewhere. Volume also kick in today. Wih demand and coal price up sharply as CEY turns to export for better return, we are looking towards a super year for CEY.

We are looking at $4.40 as the immediate target,$5.50 the secondary target and $6.40 the third target.






-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Friday, December 04, 2009 - 07:39 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

Good spotting. I agree with you that this stock shows promise. We only differ in our price targets.




As you can see I have used the range of the previous large rally to use as my new range marker. The prices are then projected from the low of the next pattern. It is a method that is sometimes called Alternate Wave Price Projection.

If we look at the last range in the flag section of the last pattern, it had a range of $0.57. Projecting that range from the low of the flag gives us another target of $3.84 which is very close to the 50% price projection of the large rally. When you have a confluence of price projections using different ranges, that price level often turns out to be a strong overhead resistance.

I therefore suspect that the $3.84~$3.85 level will be an important level to expect a retrace on its way to the higher levels.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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hershy
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Hi guys,
I have just re-read my post in August and realised that I MUST proof read my posts. I made no sense what so ever.

Anyway back to the present. As far as I can see, there are two targets on this chart.
1. Channel breakout targets are usually the channel top plus the depth of the channel. Based on that, my target is $4.19

2. Measured move. The length of the last move from low to high is/should/might be repeated from the low of the ensuing consolidation zone(channel). This has a target of $4.70.



BUT

let's not forget one thing.
The DOW last night showed not only a loss of momentum but a sign of weakness by failing to produce a higher high. The employment results in the US will come out during the night, IF they are bad, I think it's Goodbye Charlie and the DOW will have a major correction. The XAO has sort of decoupled form the DJIA only by not moving up in tandem. I expect it will re-attach itself on the down leg.
Needless to say, should that happen, these targets will be nought but wishful thinking
I know it's a bit late but HIRE A YANK TODAY !.


I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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peterloh
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Saturday, December 05, 2009 - 09:32 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hershy/rudy,

I respect your views on target and I readily agree those targets are not out of the questions. The archives in IC will throw up evidence that I have used EW for many years. I do use EW now and then for short term projection but admit it is not that frequent.
Nowadays I choose to use major resistance and support level.Hershy is smart enough to know that there is no certainty and thus always have a qualification.
This thread is under the long term sector, so the time frame is for a longer period which has not been define. I work on major business and economic cycle of 1 - 4 years. Please correct me if my target is incorrect or far fetch.
Please note I am not offended by your contribution, on the contrary I am delighted an honour by it.
I have decided to use resistance and support level because of its simplicity and flexibility. In charting I have chosen to be flexible in my approach as I understand the uncertainty of trading. I am more concern that I stick to the trend for a better long term result. Please correct me if I am wrong with my approach.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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Saturday, December 05, 2009 - 09:52 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter.
I have no idea why you would think that I would think that you might be offended by my or Rudy's contributions. As far as being honoured, you are making me blush !

A monthly chart very plainly shows resistance levels that need to be overcome . It also shows what might be a developing H & S pattern which throws a third target onto the charts, this one around $6.00.

Well the DOW gave little direction last night. Large volume, 3rd lower high and lower low in a row but the S&P 500 produced a higher high. Uncertainty über alles !




I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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peterloh
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Hi rudy,

Only 20c more and you have your target of $3.84. Need we give it a push to get it going? lol


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Wednesday, December 23, 2009 - 07:18 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With news of take overtalk of GCL by MCC, the coal industry is due for consolidation. I am looking at CEY as a major target for its attractive reserves plus the major factor that its low price agreements are in the process of phasing out and its increase volume in sales through export. This is a company with the most potential in this sector at this stage of development, my biased conclusion.It is not surprising that many brokers agreed with this, thus it is a highly recommended share by brokers and analysts in the "Your Money Your Call" in the Foxtel show.I have traded a little on CEY but kept most of my purchase intact as I truly believe there is more to come on CEY. Yesterday's spite in SP of CEY to $3.87 is a signal that this is in place. The SP closed higher to $3.74 yesterday.DYOR research if you intend to trade CEY.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Stanley Morgan has named 4 shares in the Australian market, of which CEY is number 1. UBS also has CEY in its top selection.Look like momentum is with CEY at the moment.
Expect legs on the move with CEY.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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gdd3
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Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 10:30 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

The chart below is supporting yours and the S/M's views that interest has been 'building'(well if you can 'spread the word out' enough in the market place its almost "self-fillfuling", right!).

My take on CEY at present is that maybe yesterday's high at $3.95, or maybe a push to $3.98, will temporarily halt this rise before seeing a possible bullback towards the $3.65/3.55 area. However, ultimately we should see $4.65 before any possible significant resistence maybe seen. So realistically, this current upleg is just over 1/2 way done...wave(iii) of Wave 3...me thinks.




Have a Merry and Safe Christmas

Dolphin


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peterloh
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Post Number: 3476
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Thursday, December 24, 2009 - 12:58 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello dolphin,

It is always nice to hear your comments and to have your continuous support.Looking at your chart, I like to add my observations to it. I see CEY has been consolidating and establishing a base for about 6 months.The longer a base is established the higher the SP is likely to climb.If we use Weinstein's interpretation, we are only in early stage 2 and only the beginning if a trend is eventually established. I see big potential, especially CEY is in a sector that is currently going great guns. My old favourite GCL is currently the subject of a takeover at over $8. CEY is not even half of this, I dare hope and of the feeling that this is only the beginning of a steady and gradual rise in its SP.

In the 3 year equivolume chart, I have identified the initial 5 waves, fully completed, followed by an established base of about 6 months. From this base, the phoenix rises.

I wish everyone at IC a merry christmas and a happy new year. May the year 2010 bring prosperity to you, dolphin and to all at IC.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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Friday, December 25, 2009 - 09:15 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Howdy all,
If in March 2007 you had been told that CEY had just hit a double bottom and if that pattern completes as double bottoms do, CEY will go from the then $1.60 to a high of around $5 you would have been hard pressed to accept this statement.
CEY topped out at $6.40,
Another double bottom was formed in April this year.
Should this double bottom complete as double bottoms do, the target is around $11.

I am hard pressed to accept my own statement.

Compliments of the season to all my Christian buddies in this forum.

Roses are reddish
Violets are bluish
If it wasn't for Jesus
You'd all be Jewish.

I wish you all a joyous Christmas and may 2010 bring everything you wish for.


I've been on my cruise ship for 3 days and have not left my cabin yet. There are two doors in my cabin. One leads to the bathroom and the other has a sign on the door knob that says "Do not disturb".

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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peterloh
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Friday, December 25, 2009 - 08:53 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hershy, my initial purchase of CEY is intact. My selection of CEY is based on my own FA.I have also traded CEY based on TA. I am quitely optimistic on this one. After watching MCC and GCL taking off, my faith in CEY stays.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dennis_menace
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Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 05:20 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi,

Further to Peter's information in Post 3475. The only other Australian mentioned stocks in the Morgan Stanley's Module Portfolio of 40 stocks (from around the world) were:-

Macquarie Group
Newcrest
Telstra

Getting back to CEY. The image below is the weekly bar chart with the 15 & 30 EMA's that Weinstein uses. As you can see that last weeks bar just finished shy (10c) of the Fib 50% line. The high is $6.40 on 27/06/08 - & the low is $1.51 on 06/03/09.




Regards
DM


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peterloh
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Saturday, December 26, 2009 - 05:29 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thank you David for the additional information. It is good to know what the other companies are.I am turned on by CEY currently. What is your opinion? Am I too optimistic?


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Friday, April 09, 2010 - 06:29 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For a fallen angel, CEY is ok by me.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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rdumas
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Tuesday, April 13, 2010 - 02:08 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

Purely looking at the very short term time frame based on the Slow Stochastic and %R combination it looks like it may be ready to take off again.






(Message edited by rdumas on April 13, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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peterloh
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Tuesday, April 13, 2010 - 03:23 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Rudy, I like CEY for the longer term though. CEY will be very much on the wanted list after MCC.Just watch this corner, a matter of time only, it will be well solicited.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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espresso
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Tuesday, April 13, 2010 - 09:08 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi,
itís still trending in the right direction patience and time will pay a lot of dividends.

The weekly chart gives this stock a lot of merit.
good luck.


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dennis_menace
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Friday, April 16, 2010 - 02:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



There are a lot of "research experts" with egg of their faces today with the latest announcement (from MCC) is that it intends now to enter negotiations with Peabody and the EGM for next Monday as been cancelled.

I just wonder if any of them will admit that they were wrong in this instance?


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peterloh
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Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 10:52 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



dolphin/rudy,dennis and hershy,

I finally exited this morning at $4.92. I would have love to hold on a month longer to benefit from the CGT 12 months discount, the price was too tempting to leave it alone, a fallen angel, you beaut.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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baysider
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well done Peter, you're a very patient man! What's the phrase, everything comes to he who waits?


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gdd3
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Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 11:36 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well done Peter; probably a great decision! Interesting statement by Centennial this morning...especially the part about not knowing 'the identity' of who 'bought -up'(crossed) the 39.5mil shares at $5.00.

Mixed T/A signals now but I'm guessing that the 4.65c will hold short-term downside but am very wary that today's move could be part of a 'false - breakout'.

Good tradin' plus a 'sprinkleling' of Chinese Luck, maybe!

Cheers
Dolphin




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peterloh
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Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 12:15 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thank you baysider. You hit the nail on the head dolphin, its the reason I sold. It may still go up in the longer term, but then, it is another story.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dennis_menace
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Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 01:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

Congratulations on your windfall. Funny you said you were keeping it for the long term and this announcement should come out less than a month after that!!

As you said it may go even higher but you can always buy back into it if it meets one criteria. In the meantime you can enjoy the riches of your patient wait.

Regards
David (alias Dennis)


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peterloh
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Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 01:33 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



David, I was a reluctant seller, but I was also thinking of capital preservation in uncertain times. This one may retrace before moving up again. The super tax on resources
is not helping either as instead of creation of wealth for the less fortunate, it has a different effect. I anticipate a retracement by CEY before it moves up again. I could be wrong here. Almost a dollar a day is difficult to ignore.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Friday, May 07, 2010 - 11:31 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thank you David, it is one of those that I called well, I think. With the market sentiment, any profit is a good profit. I thought CEY could come back to retest the $4.30 mark, but it may not get there, $4.40 could be nearer the mark though despite all the doom and groom around.It may take another day before CEY bounce back. By then I don't have my precious pearl anymore.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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msparks
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looked like value at 3.60 ....but...who knows anymore what it costs to produce with KKrud




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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dennis_menace
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Tuesday, June 15, 2010 - 08:22 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A PARCEL of 18.2 million shares in Centennial Coal worth about $91.1 million traded at $5 a share today, accounting for about 4.6 per cent of the coal miner's shares on issue.

It is unclear who was behind the trade but Thai coal miner Banpu last month said it had acquired a 14.9 per cent stake in Centennial. Four large trades accounting for about 10.6 per cent of the company's shares were traded at $5 a share just before Banpu made that announcement.

Entities wanting to buy shares in Australian listed companies must make a takeover bid for the company if their shareholding exceeds 19.9 per cent. They are, however, allowed to take a maximum additional 3 per cent holding each six months without having to make a takeover bid.


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jaded
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Wednesday, June 16, 2010 - 06:55 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





I'd be interested in peterloh's[and your's dennis] comments on OS/Asian Interests in our "Minor" Materials Stocks.

My observation is that such major holdings are NOT a Bonanza.I mean initially the price rises but it is not surprising that the share price soon retreats Below their "Buy" price.

Have you seen that?
A BigBuyer's Buy/Break Even is not Supported.More often than not,it Falls Away.

I'm wondering whether an End User investing substantially isn't a form of "Hedging"? The Substantial Holder is IN mainly to form a 'relationship'?

Anyhow,rederob advises to stick by/be Staunch only with Un Hedged Producers and what I proposition is that having Foreign End Users with Substantial holdings could be a form of Hedging,one has to consider.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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peterloh
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Thursday, June 17, 2010 - 11:18 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



jaded, I am not always good at timing the market. I never know when is the bottom and very often bought in too early than not and also probably got out a bit too early before the top.
I do charts for a long time but I try to use common sense most of the time in which I was criticised as " I could have got them cheaper tomorrow".My hopes of survival is through diversification, that is putting some away in good times and buying more when times are not so good. An example is in the 1st half of 2009 I bought many of the minor resources shares. Well in Jan and February I probably paid a wee bit more which was compensated by my continuing purchased in the next few months. To me then, is, I got a lot of shares on the cheap which are well established mining companies but without any demand for their products, thus they were being sold for a song.If you compared the SPs, they were only 10-20% of what they were before, a year ago.Likewise I applied the same principle to LPTs and bought a heap of them near the end of last year. They haven't dropped much, neither have they made much either.
I think the market could turn for them soon and I could see their SP stirring.You know I have always been a contrarian, that is my secret of survival in 40 plus years of trading.I do not have the gigantic rise, neither have I caught the gigantic fall either. I am just the middle of the road guy, still learning how to survive.Does it make sense? Does it answer your question?, jaded.

David, I always have a high opinion of CEY. However I need to diversify, thus my venture into other sectors even with less anticipated profit as I already own a fair bit of resource stocks.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dennis_menace
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Monday, July 05, 2010 - 04:31 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Centennial Coal has accepted a cash offer with a 40 per cent premium from Thailand's Banpu, valuing the NSW coal miner at $2.4 billion. As revealed by The Australian on its website earlier today, Centennial confirmed Banpu -- Thailand's biggest coal producer -- has offered $6.20 a share for the 80 per cent of the Hunter Valley thermal coal producer it doesn't already own.

Banpu said it would finance the deal through cash reserves and new and existing credit facilities. JPMorgan is advising Banpu, with UBS advising Centennial. The offer is at a 40 per cent premium to Centennial's $4.42 closing price on Friday, the same day the federal government overhauled its controversial mining tax proposal. The uncertainty created by the original tax structure had hampered miners' share prices as well as potential mergers and acquisitions in the resources sector.

IG Markets strategist Ben Potter said it appeared that Prime Minister Julia Gillard's new mining tax that lowered the headline rate from 40 per cent to an effective 22.5 per cent ďhas turned the takeover tap back on". "At a 40 per cent premium to the last traded price, this looks to be a significant windfall for Centennial shareholders and will likely reignite M&A speculation across the sector," he said.

"The certainty brought about by the new minerals resources rent tax has facilitated this latest bid and will likely see further foreign capital invested in Australian mining and energy assets". Speculation had been building that Banpu would launch a full bid after buying up its 20 per cent stake through JPMorgan in separate raids on its share registry, despite Banpu chief executive Chanin Vongkusolkit attempting to hose down the speculation by saying the investment was appropriate.

Mr Vongkusolkit said today the transaction presented a unique and compelling opportunity for all stakeholders involved. "Banpu is excited to have exposure to the Australian coal sector and believes that an acquisition of Centennial would be the initial step in driving further consolidation of the sector," he said. "In addition, Banpu is strongly supportive of the Centennial management team and its current strategy, and would expect Centennialís existing management team to continue with operations and development projects as planned. "Banpu's offer for Centennial is at a significant premium to recent trading levels of Centennial and has regard to Centennialís strategy of supplying domestic and export markets, and increasing its mix of coal sales to export parity pricing, as well as mooted expansion and development plans such as Newstan Lochiel."

Centennial's board has unanimously recommended the offer in the absence of a superior proposal and subject to an independent expert finding the offer is fair and reasonable. All Centennial directors intend to accept the offer with respect to their own shareholdings. The bid is also conditional on a range of factors, including clearance from Australiaís Foreign Investment Review Board and Banpu obtaining 75 per cent shareholder approval.

Banpu's bidder's statement will be sent to Centennial shareholders by August, with an extraordinary general meeting to be held by Banpu in mid-August. Centennial managing director Bob Cameron said Banpu has indicated its intention to maintain current operations and employees. "Centennial is strategically placed to take advantage of strong demand for thermal coal, with long term domestic contracts expiring in coming years," he said. "We also expect to grow production as a result of our new operations at Airly and the Newstan Lochiel project."

Analysts said Banpu had a "big appetite" for thermal coal to feed Thailand's consumption needs, with Deutsche Bank recently tipping thermal coal contract prices to rise 26 per cent to $US120 a tonne by 2012.







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dennis_menace
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Wednesday, November 02, 2011 - 10:36 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What's the news with this company? Anyone here who can shed some light on why the price is falling?

Cheers

TSX Stocks 15-minute delayed

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