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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

MGX - rising from the ashes?

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » MGX - rising from the ashes?

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mook
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Username: mook

Post Number: 91
Registered: 05-2008

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Wednesday, July 08, 2009 - 08:02 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MGX was so battled when customers stopped delivery in December, many thought it would have gone under. I bought a fair few below 40c. When the company had a rights issue at 60c, I did not take it up but preferred to buy them at market which was cheaper then. Whatever was not taken up was underwritten by the biggest shareholder at 60c.So I thought the future support price would be 60c.
I am more confident of the future prospect of MGX is because they have a new lease which they have to explore and if they find IO here, the SP will shoot up again. I do think it has been factored into the SP of this yet.

Below could be the reason for MGX SP to be so strongly up today.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSSEO9733020 090708

BEIJING, July 8 (Reuters) - China's steel mills have agreed to a 33 percent cut in iron ore prices after failing to win a bigger reduction than their Asian rivals, but only for a six-month period rather than a full year, the Chinese Business News said on Wednesday, citing informed sources it did not name.

The deal, which could not be immediately confirmed, would conclude some nine months of tense negotiations that threatened to scupper the decades-old annual pricing ritual, and which took an unexpected turn this week when four Rio Tinto employees in Shanghai were detained by Chinese authorities. [ID:nSYD436642]

Several Chinese steel officials contacted by Reuters on Wednesday said they were unaware of any settlement, but two sources not directly involved in the discussions said they had had heard of a possible agreement, but could not confirm it.

"All news should be subject to the statement from CISA and Baosteel. I have nothing to say about the news," Chen Xianwen, head of the market research department at the China Iron and Steel Association industry body, told Reuters.

The Shanghai-based business newspaper, backed by a local government agency, said China had agreed to pay $0.97 per dry metric tonne unit for Pilbara blend fines and $1.12 per dmtu for Plibara Blend lump, but only for April through October. It said negotiations were already underway for the following period.

But the newspaper said its sources could not say which of the big iron ore suppliers had signed the deal.

A 33 percent cut would be in line with what analysts have been expecting as Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) (RIO.L) showed no inclination to let up its "take it or leave it" stance on the initial deal, and an economic recovery lifted spot market prices above new contract levels, leaving China with little leverage.

If confirmed, it would mean China's steel sector had conceded to the same price that Japanese and South Korean rivals accepted from Rio and BHP Billiton, but for only half the time, giving China's mills the chance to argue for cheaper rates if a tentative economic recovery that has revived steel prices falters.

China, the world's biggest steel producer and buyer of more than half of all traded iron ore, had initially sought a bigger price cut of up to 45 percent versus 2008, but last week softened those demands after the June 30 deadline for agreeing terms lapsed, giving miners the right to suspend term deals.

An agreement would provide more certainty for mills' costs and miners' earnings, but is a setback in China's effort to play a bigger and more influential role in commodity markets; this suffered another blow last month when Rio scrapped a $19.5 billion deal with Chinese state-owned metals group Chinalco.

With a mechanism to review prices more frequently, the vast 800 million tonne a year trade in iron ore moves a small step toward becoming a more liquid commodity market, which would give miners more opportunity to profit from rising prices and open up trading and hedging opportunities for global banks. (Reporting by Tom Miles, Alfred Cang, David Stanway and Miyoung Kim


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peterloh
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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 02:19 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MGX is one of those that I bought in March. I do have a few of these. The last financial year has been a night mare for this company. Thanks to management and the company's holding in iron ore, MGX has turned around. The share price was around 35c when I thought this one may feature in the future.

I have not had a look at it for ome time. I had traded it too when it was in better days last year. Look like MGX is coming back from the ashes.It is currently $1.05, and I think there is still gas in this one.

I like the way MGX explodes out of the Bollinger Bands, this may be a signal that this time it will see blue sky.



MGX features here.

Here are some abstracts from the Eureka Report some time recently.

"David Paradice, one of Australias best-known small-cap experts, manages about $860 million in companies outside the ASX 100. His expertise is in selecting some of the most beaten up, downtrodden and downright ugly stocks to add to his portfolio."

"Today he lists Platinum Asset Management, Mount Gibson Iron and Pacific Brands as his small-cap standouts and explains why he believes they have been priced incorrectly."

"he remains a true believer in discounted cash flow  as does Warren Buffett. But he has since done an about-turn on resource stocks and singled out iron ore junior Mount Gibson for special attention."

" At the start of the year about 36% of the index was resources and as things were just being carted out, we decided we would move a bit into that area.

Now Mount Gibson had fallen from $3.50 down to about 90"-odd. But the volume of iron ore that it's selling has been locked in and the price has been locked in, so theres not a great deal of risk because the earnings of the company are reasonably easy to forecast. So when [Mount Gibson] hit 4050" we started buying it, based on what we know about the business; the stock is about 90" now. Based on the certainty of the production and the near certainty of the price, we think the stock looks cheap."








-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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stampy
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Username: stampy

Post Number: 93
Registered: 10-2003

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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 07:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Sir Peter

MGX rallied 5 cents after you posted this.. Gee I didn't realise you had such a following!!

Then again.. Maybe just a nice call.

I'm hearing Dirty Red will be back posting soon.

Regards
Stampy


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mook
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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 07:57 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



There was a report on MGX today. I posted after it has gone up, realising that I have a few of those too. By the way, the resources are blowing, you don't need to look anywhere else for your selection for the time being.


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hershy
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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 08:50 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I too have been watching this baby. Missed it !




I do it doji style !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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mook
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Thursday, July 23, 2009 - 10:42 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi stampy, I must have confused you. I was thinking about something else. I was doing some digging in the garden this afternoon and did not get on to the computer till tonight.


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hershy
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Saturday, July 25, 2009 - 06:29 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



BA-Merrill Lynch rates MGX as Buy, High Risk - The broker notes the FY09 result was both ahead of its numbers and ahead of consensus, while the spare $222m of cash was a definite surprise.

The additional cash has increased interest income and reduced interest expenses, while the better than expected cost performance that delivered the spare cash has caused a small reduction is costs.

Put all of this together and the broker has increased FY10-11 net profit by 18% and 10%. The Buy call and target are maintained.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.94 Difference:$0.21 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MGX meets the BA-Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June. BA-Merrill Lynch forecasts a full year FY09 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents . At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.62.

Market Sentiment: 0.0


I do it doji style !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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stampy
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Saturday, July 25, 2009 - 08:15 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Mook

I was a little confused. Did you find any treasure in the bottom of the garden? There seems to treasure in the markets of late. I wonder how long it will last. I'm trying to keep a level head about it. Have a good weekend
Regards Stampy.


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stampy
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Saturday, July 25, 2009 - 08:19 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Si Peter, Hi Hershy.

Just couldn't get onto this one.. was just to slow! It looks good no doubt, but i just don't know what I'd sell

Regards
Stampy


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peterloh
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Saturday, July 25, 2009 - 10:55 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hershy, stampy, bought a few in those early days in March. I am choosing to ignore the market for now. They are quite a few like MRE, MGX, PEM, TTY, bought in early days and more recently like KZL and EQN, that I choose not to do anything for some time. I have been punished when ever I try short term trade, so it is better for me to sit tight at this early stage of the economic circle.
MGX has new land which has not been drilled yet having settled the agreement with the natives, if we think that the share is fully priced now, wait till they said they found more iron ore, then the price will go up again. I give up trying to guess the value of things.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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Sunday, July 26, 2009 - 09:48 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MGX may just have a short term hissy fit. I picked it as a short for the weekly comp. Those last two candles are a reversal pattern. Also the lower high is a bit of an ill omen.
Short term only but !
Hope I don't choke on these words.




I do it doji style !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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peterloh
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Monday, July 27, 2009 - 05:03 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi hershy, MGX's chart is still bullish.The black candle on Friday did not penetrate the mid point on the long white candle of Thursday but stays above it at $1.05.Today's white candle engulfed the black candle completely, indicating that there is more room upwards and some way to go yet for MGX. I expect it to reach blue sky fairly soon, probably I am biased optimistic.Today's trade has a reasonable volume too.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Monday, July 27, 2009 - 05:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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gdd3
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Hi Peterloh...not too sure about the validity of your "major resistance" line in your last post....is it a Fibo level(38.2% perhaps???). Better still, maybe you can shed some "enlightenment" on why there?

In the meantime I submit my version of MGX weekly showing what I see as "major" resistence for her....up near $2.05 and abt 50% of the fall. Having said that, next week could see some sort of top as by then the time taken to fall from its all time high to the Dec. last year low would match....some 37 weeks. Surely no time to reach $2.05 from current levels but closer to your mark and the 38% retracement(abt $1.57).

Good luck with her!



Dolphin


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peterloh
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Monday, July 27, 2009 - 08:23 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi dolphin,perhaps I should rephrase it as a minor resistance. The fact that it is also near a Fibonacci retracement is a coincidence only.I was merely referring to the next significant or dominant black candle.Are you using Elliot Waves and Fibonacci important retracement levels in your analysis?
Thank you for your kind wishes.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Sunday, September 13, 2009 - 11:25 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MGX is stalling a bit and dropped from its upper channel. Will it climb back to the upper channel?





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Even hershy come in to support us at MGX.








-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dennis_menace
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Well 18 months on and the story has turned around. The stock did reach a high around this time last year of $2.42c but as since been travelling in a downward direction.



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