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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

ALL...Aristrocrat Leisure

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » ALL...Aristrocrat Leisure

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gdd3
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Thursday, September 17, 2009 - 08:11 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ALL looks like it is completing its medium-term(2+ Months) consolidation pattern after breaking out above the longer-term basing pattern in late July, re-tracing back to the break-out point and finding good buying interest this week. This medium-term pattern has also remained above the long-term downtrend line line throughout its formation. In addition, if tomorrow's close remains above $4.60, then we have a very bullish weekly 'Key-reversal' bar in place and with higher volume to boot...generally a reliable near term trend direction indicator! So higher prices from here would be expected...as to how far, well initially we could expect about $5.30's as shown on both charts.

The Weekly Twiggs Money Flow is also now in the +ve indicating accumulation.



The daily Chart is included to highlight upcoming possible resistances(possible profit-taking areas) at $4.80(previous swing highs) and $5.00(currently yearly swing high). After these then nothing much until the high $5.30's.





Cheers
Dolphin


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ivor
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ALL in a descending triangle ? Is this good news or bad news ?ALL triangle







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hershy
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Ivor, it would appears you and I are bound to cross swords.
In a friendly fashion, of course. We see things differently you and I. You see a triangle,(too much empty space at the bottom for a triangle) I see a channel. Too long to be a flag but will probably act as one. Giddy aka Dolphin called it well. I was watching the Aristocrat but it moved when I took my eyes off it. Long horizontal consolidation followed by a flag that did not reach it's target before falling into the present pattern.
My target is doubling the horizontal channel previously travelled, namely around $5.50
Question:
Does anyone know if the newly accepted (by the State Government) electronic table games that Crown will introduce are made by Aristocrat ?




The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, itís made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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ivor
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Hi Hershy.
Can see where you're coming from.
Will watch the outcome with great interest.


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ivor
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Hello Hirshy and Dolphin.
Watched as ALL broke out and bought a parcel. Have to bow to your superior call on this one. Looks good at this stage.


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ivor
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Hello Hershy & Dolphin, Sold out of ALL yesterday at $5.22. Nice profit from $4.62. Shares may go higher, but I'm happy with my trade. Always leave something on the table, takes the pressure off. Thanks a lot for all the info, very insightful. 1000 at 60c is a nice trade for me. You both have my complete attention from now on. Cheers from Ivor.


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hershy
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Friday, October 02, 2009 - 11:35 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Hershy Superfund .
Will send you bank details soon.


The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, itís made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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gdd3
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Hershy...I'll take the Director's cut please!

Dolphin


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hershy
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Friday, October 02, 2009 - 02:42 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The director has been using the BHP investment method so loved by Ivor.
That's:
Buy
Hope
Pray

Hehe..............


Anyway, your name does not show in the Master Trust.


The big money in stockmarket investment is not made in the thinking, itís made in the sitting.
My advice is worth exactly what you pay for it so do your own research.

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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gdd3
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Tuesday, April 13, 2010 - 12:53 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Hershy and Ivor,

Do you think ALL is about to make another (60+ Ivor) move again?. Well to be honest, this trader is not too sure(as if any trader should be sure of market movements?!?)in which direction. You see, at present levels you could build an argument on both sides of the coin.

Positives:-

1)...All 3 M.A.'s are pointing N.N.E., above the 150EMA.
2)...we have broken out of the (yellow) downtrend resistance line.
3)...we've had a series of higher lows and higher highs since the early Dec. swing low.
4)...you could argue that ALL has been 'panning-out' two 'bullish?' chart patterns since Oct.09...an "Inverse H & S"(Hershy speciality shown in blue) and a "Wedge"(shown in pink).
5)...short-term T.A.Z.(T.2) buy signal still active.

Negatives:-
1)... The 'favoured' E.W. count since the 6th Oct.09 swing high is that it has 'impulsed' down to the Dec.09 low and since then the action up appears very corrective...hence expect next major move(60+ min.points) as down?
2)...That 'impulse' wave down broke the then uptrend support line which, when extended, has formed a pivotal 'decision' resistance line...highlighted by the strong 'pivotal' point at the intersection of resistances at the 08 Feb swing high. This point still appears to be controlling(limiting) upside advances.
3)...twice been rejected at the 50% retracement level ~$4.70 of the impulse down.

My conclusions.... Break above $4.70 with conviction a buy; break below $4.30 'sell' strategy in play!

Any thoughts you two or others?





Cheers
Dolphin


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muzza
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Monday, February 27, 2017 - 09:29 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Guys,

Looking for some views on Aristocrat (ASX:ALL)

I couldn't find a more recent thread - its interesting that the last post was April 2010 by Dolphin.

Anyway, given I am a more of a long term guy it made some sense to update here.

What is interesting to me is that, psychologically, when the world gets "tough", the tough and the not so tough gamble even more.
ALL really started to "wake up" in 2013.

Here is how I look at it, and would appreciate you views.

Please note that in all of the charts below (except the daily) the last candle is an incomplete one as this week is a work-in-progress.

I use a modified Elder Triple Screen approach - so I start with the (very) big picture

SECULAR TREND - WARNING - MONTHLY chart

ALL_Secular

ALL is in a strong long term Bull run.
It would take a lot of negative sentiment to turn this ship around.
That said, we are approaching the All-Time-High level of $16.95 where resistance could be encountered.
(Note that this level was reached in early 2007 so there may not be much "market memory" with those who trade).

Recall that old adage - In the short term the stock market is a voting machine and in the long term its a weighing machine.

I have some ALL in a long term "investment" portfolio -- but I am now looking to see if its worth trading this stock as well.

Strategic View - Weekly Chart

ALL_Strategic

ALL has been hugging its 12wk EMA, which has been rising.
The 12wk EMA is above the 26wk EMA and the two seem to be separating.
The MACD looks like it will cross its signal line shortly -- perhaps this week unless there are any "shocks".
There is a dominant candle (incomplete - its only monday) working up.
Volume below the VMA - but not a big deal as its only Monday.

All this suggests to me that ALL is "in-gear" to run --- if it does not encounter serious selling pressure at the All-Time-High level.

Tactical Chart - Daily - to tune entries / exits etc.

ALL_Tactical

A very dominant candle today, and on impressive volume which is well above the VMA

The 12dy EMA is accelerating to the upside, so is the 26dy EMA -- and the EMAs are separating.
Given the above its not surprising that the MACD is also showing the same pattern, and it crossed its signal line on 10/2

Elders Force Index - above zero and accelerating

(Notes - In Elders publication he says A 2-day EMA of Force Index provides a minimal degree of smoothing.
It is useful for finding entry points into the markets.
It pays to buy when the 2-day EMA is negative and sell when it is positive, as long as you trade in the direction of the 12-day EMA of prices.
Elder suggests that FI be used in a system to pin point entry or exit. In my experience a 2 period of FI works for short terms trades -- days.
I use a 12 day FI. A 12-day EMA of Force Index tracks longer term changes in the force of bulls and bears.
When it crosses above its centerline, it shows the bulls are in control.
When it turns negative, it shows that bears are in control.
Divergences between 12-day EMA of Force Index and prices identify important turning points)

BullPower very strong and BearPower weak (stating the obvious).

In the generic Triple Screen BearPower is used more in uptrends -- and one looks to see BearPower tick up and then down -- which shows theoretically
that the Bears are indeed weak and are about to be swamped by the Bulls. We need to watch for this, because if it happens that would be a very bullish sign
when coupled with say a break above $17 with volume.

Separately, and not part of Triple Screen per se - Elder talks about "impulsive" moves - and this is intended to identify inflection points where the trend speeds up
or slows down. The Blue Arrow on the chart identifies this point (on 14/02).

Well that's all the theory - and the market has been know to make a fool of me quite often - so do your own research please.

But, in Elders philosophy he strongly advocates entering the market cautiously and exiting quickly when things don't work out - Safe Zone stops etc.
This has saved me more often than not -- and I have been reasonably successful using my Elder system with Muzza tweaks.

Given all of the above - a question to experienced IC Traders.

If the above kinda works to plan, and we break above All-Time-Highs ... what target would you set over a time frame of say 3-6 months?

Regards
Muzza


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tryhay
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Tuesday, February 28, 2017 - 08:27 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Muzza,

You have provided a well thought out case to support favourably considering the long ALL trade. The De rigeur IC approach is to provide a one liner reply....

I started looking at your question last night and now that I look at it this-morning I see any reasonable reply is likely to take some time to cobble together.

However, Briefly the ALL set up looks real (relating strength is busting the "poof ooo" valve - not to mention other indicators) , and I must say well spotted. The only time that I have traded ALL was back in 2003 and my full service broker was against the trade.....

The first chart that I prepared shows the LOG weekly overlain with Stan's phases (or at least the stage 1s) & the MACD is shown to be positive and supportive of a breakout (maybe > $25).

When I have some time I'll provide a more detailed response that may show the case for higher prices. That does not guarantee success; but that is what stop loss is for...



Weekly


Happy trading DYOR


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muzza
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Tuesday, February 28, 2017 - 09:28 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Tryhay - Thank you my friend.

Really appreciate your initial response and look forward to your input after mulling things over.

I am trying to form a solid opinion on PA target in circa 3mths.

Regards
Muzza


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muzza
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Tuesday, February 28, 2017 - 07:20 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day Tryhay and others reading

Update on ALL Daily Chart as of 28/2

All_Tactical_2

ALL poked its head above the ATH of $16.95 .. the high was $17.00 today.

Prices reacted of this level and closed at $16.6 .. respecting the upper channel level (support).
Volume was healthy and above the VMA.

This means to me that prices are compressing between Bulls at $17 and Bears who are covering positions down to the upper channel - where the Bulls come back in to support ALL.

We may well see another few down days as long-term holders look to cover / close positions at this level.

Market Memory at work!

Now look at BearPower -- it has ticked up.
Look at ForceIndex -- it has ticked down.

To me this reads that while we had a down day the "Force" in that move was less than the previous Force in the up moves.

Weak hands being shaken out.

If we see BearPower tick down over the next few days and Force back up --- this could be a very Bullish signal.

Looking forward to your reflections when you can TryHay.

Regards
Muzza


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tryhay
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Tuesday, February 28, 2017 - 10:13 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Muzza,

I have not read Elder's book/s, but I like his approach (gleaned from personal study of videos and websites).

I also have found that to improve ones odds in this field of endevour one must use a structured stock picking approach - one that I am still tweaking to suit (ongoing process improvement).

I don't feel comfortable that this thread is the right forum to have the questions you ask answered by others:
*I am trying to form a solid opinion on PA target in circa 3mths.

*what target would you set over a time frame of say 3-6 months?


Mainly because I don't have the definitive answer for you, but I guess some out there have a better idea than most.

However, I do believe that the value a forum like this poses is the free discussion the pros and cons of particular share trading approaches, even to the pros and cons on particular share/s of interest. Most of us have adopted systems of share picking that are more or less satisfactory, & the only downside that I see with the above discussion is someone blindly following without being able to dig themselves out of a trade that turns against the position they have entered as a result of reading discussion/s here. I see that more as an existential problem, people need to do their own research and look after themselves IMO.

I'm sorry if this POV is at odds with yours, but more importantly, FWIW I have another ALL chart to share which provides another perspective on trading it.

The monthly chart I believe shows the share is in uptrend (with the moving averages stacked in uptrend), with price action still to break to all time high. What is not clear to me is how much resistance at the previous high will be experienced. A clue to that is found in the location of the weekly and monthly MACD, together with the Elders Force Index and BullPower mentioned by you.


m


The Daily Chart: Shows an ascending triangle, with PA above the MAs which are positively stacked, & the MACD histogram has flipped from negative to positive as have other indicators.

daily

I am unlikely to take the trade (as I'm fully invested elsewhere) but wish you well with it.

I hope some others care to post on this thread.







Happy trading DYOR


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muzza
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Wednesday, March 01, 2017 - 07:33 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for your analysis TryHay - most appreciated mate.

I do agree with you regarding stock picking .. I tend to focus my posts & discussions on IC from a technical perspective for the most part given the nature of the forum ... but that said FWIW I try to form an opinion about key sectors from a thematic and FA perspective.

Eg Healthcare -- ageing population in AUS/Japan etc.
Govt - Thematically driving outsourcing
Energy - Generators, Distributors, Batteries, Uranium etc.
Consumer goods - Those that have transitioned their supply chain models to efficient 21c ones etc.
Gambling / Gaming - geared to the emergence of the high-net-worth Asian markets .. with the commensurate risks as we have seen with CWN. ALL is an "arms merchant" into this market.

Then look for strong balance sheets & cash flow, divi streams etc

The put the TA lens across all of this for the ones I think are trade able as against the ones I want to hold from a long term investment portfolio.

And when I get bored/lazy/a-rush-off-blood I take discretionary "punts" with money I am prepared to lose -- akin to punting at Randwick! - BUT these punts are gated by my Elder based system, which also has elements of Weinsteins approach synthesised into it (some of my tweaks) to prevent me being too silly. These are my "learning experience" trades.

To be honest, at this time I am not sure where ALL fits in my thinking, and hence I was looking to get insights into the way razor sharp traders look at this puppy.

Once again I thank you for the time taken to analyse and respond to my posts.

For the sake of disclosure I have NOT taken the ALL trade yet.

When & IF it meets my entry criteria, and given my inability to really hone in on a price target, I am probably going to take the approach of looking at how long it took to rally of the turning point to now using Fibonacci.

Then looking at the slope of the MA (as it stands), with the Fibonacci projected upwards, I will look at where those intersect but then "dial-back" to "compress time" to 3 months as the trend is a lot stronger now than it was at the turn. Hope you get the picture.

Quick and dirty Mental arithmetic (not my strong suite) - based on the above suggests entry in the $16.xx, S/L (initial 15.7), Target $20.xx by end May/June ... Projected gain 25%, Reward:Risk circa 13.33

Anyway, I will update if I take this one.

Regards
Muzza

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