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Last Year's "Cinderellas"...Iron Ore!

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » Last Year's "Cinderellas"...Iron Ore!

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gdd3
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Username: gdd3

Post Number: 715
Registered: 09-2002

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Wednesday, February 10, 2010 - 04:02 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



There is no doubt that last year's ASX/XJO rises were primarily as a result of a 'recovery' of the XMJ(Materials sector) with mainly the "Iron Ore" producer and explorer stocks the driving force within this sector.

The XMJ outperformed the other 'major' indicies with a whopping 220% rise(from their mid Nov.08 lows to Jan.10 highs) with 'most' of the 'Iron Ore' dominated stocks**(see my list below) rising mostly somewhere between 400 - 600% mostly during the same period.

Of course, with such 'lofty' % gains you would expect that XMJ is the sector that is getting a 'caning' in this current run down(apart from the Bank's that peaked in mid Oct.09 and which have continued to fall). Since the Jan.10 highs XMJ has fallen 14%, whereas the XAO and XJO have fallen ~10%. Incidently the Banks have fallen ~ 15% in the same time and between 20 -33%, apart from CBA, since Oct.09.

Back to highlighting the 'canning' of the Iron Ore related stocks that I was referring to and watching** most have fallen between 20-35% in this same period. However, what is of interest is that of my list two out of the three highest gainers have actually come back the least...and by a long shot. BRM gained some 750% over last year and IOH gained an unbelievable 2560%(yep, thats correct if our I.C. data is accurate!). Now both of these have held up quite ok in this recent 'sell-off' only falling 5% and ~10% respectively from their Jan. 10 highs. Definitely outperforming the other most 'illustrious' stocks on my list. FMG...down 21%; MMX...down 32%; GBG...down 33%; AGO...down 24% and remember XJO...down 14%. Checkout the list below for the other results(rises and falls).

It is also of interest that a lot of the 'other' stocks(including the XMJ) are holding precariously onto their uptrend support lines or bottom of trading channels(established either from the Nov.08 or March 09 lows).

Some questions arise!...(1) are BRM and IOH going to be thrashed down in catch up mode(especially if say the XMJ breaks down through channel support and therefore confirming a primary trend change) or are the others going to 'hold' or even rally somewhat to bridge the % gaps. Or (2) will BRM and IOH continue to seen as a 'flight to quality' within their sector and remain well supported...bit like CBA is in the Banks sector at the moment? Not too sure of the answer here but, as I said, it is of interest(intriguing).

Cheers
Dolphin

**List of Iron Ore Stocks on my list showing %gains since their Nov.08 low to recent Jan. highs(mostly) plus their falls since then.

AGO...up 600% down 24%
BCI...up 700% down 21%
BRM...up 750% down ~5%
CFE...up 400% down 37.5%
CXM...up 600% down 35%
FRS...up 950% down 32%
FMG...up 480% down 20%
GBG...up 400% down 33%
IOH...up 2650% down 10%
MGX...up 1000% down 33%
MMX...up 600% down 32%
SPH...up 650% down 35%

Did have on my list also GWR, GRR, and TTY but as these 'underperformed' the XJO I dropped them off!


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jaded
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Friday, March 19, 2010 - 07:53 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



well,dolphin.here's a list of Momentum shares for Colin's Professor "Theorist' from Bond Uni to be tested on.
[you have read the latest What's New letter,right?]

I'm particularly interested in whether this Momentum Go is valid for going Long in a Bear Market and is not going to be switched into Momentum Shorting to validate the thesis.

Also I 'dispute' the use of the Materials Sector Index[pardon my ignorance but I'm not au fait with the Codes for Indexes]but I don't 'like' such indexes when one is looking at Mid Cap> Shares.

Why?because they are so weighted to Major,Blue Chip "Members'.

For Example the Materials Index is virtually 'wedded' to the price action of BHP and RIO.Any Price Forces on these two 'individually' moves and skews the Index ie TakeOver Talk or denial affects disproportionately the Index Movement.

This was gone into here years ago that the current indexes are [sub]Standard and [very]Poor especially for 'pilgrims'/punters who are operating outside of Blue Chip Shares.
[another/'best' example is that the IT sector index is virtually 100% Compushare based]

It was 'determined' that if one had the capabilities it was much more preferable and profitable to make your own Indexes based on shares in Particular Segments [like Iron Ore] or just Index your own Holdings.

I don't have the skills to do such a thing but I do like to get lists of Companies involved in Particular Sections of the Materials/Mining Industry like yours above on Iron Ore.

They're always too long,too many but they do give you a Watchlist/Chart List to review and 'divine' a couple of picks from and that's what I'm going to be "up" to with your's above.

I'll be looking for what Factors were common to the Big Risers.I suspect Limited Shares on Issue initally may be one as well as Type of Iron Ore.
Also I'll be watching for Patterns/Breakouts/Action Tradeable in my 'culled' list for future goes.

I should point out that GRR,that you dolphin 'dropped' has recently had a spurt.I was disappointed that stickman didn't point this move out in short term while I was in 'exile' but stick has 'troubles'.

anyway,the Question is-
Will Iron Ore still "Burn" during any Bear Retrace/Swamp?
Will China still 'do' Steel even in a Trade War/Currency Conflict?
and is our professor Momentum Long Advocating in adverse Market Conditions?

These are one's Risk Assessment criteria/questions,hey?







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jaded
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Friday, March 19, 2010 - 03:56 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Have broken the above shares up by Market Capitalisation.
Dolphin mentions 15 shares above and I've tacked in 4 others[BTV,IFE,IRD,and LCY].

So Alphabetically[by code] it goes like this-
AGO,BCI,BRM,BTV,CFE,CXM,FRS,FMG,GBG,GRR,GWR,IFE,IOH,IRD,LCY,MGX,MMX,SPH,TTY.

now set this up as an IC Watchlist and you've got near 20 Charts to monitor.
Set it up on your Broker's Site and you can 'learn' things.
Like today most all of them fell and you can 'divine' maybe some reason why some did NOT or at the very least have a more specifically relevant Sector to monitor.

Anyhow,I have some personal criteria that I apply to 'cull' the list that I have to monitor.After all I'm not going to Hold 20 Iron Ore Shares.I have to choose which ones I'm going to GO with.

Most of all as well I have to discover IF Iron Ore is still Momentum Charged going into the next 6 months.

A preliminary chart go thru reveals a lot of 6month+ Consolidation/Range Trading has been going on in a lot of them.

Anyone on the Forum interested in Iron Ore Stocks in general or specific ones?If so,please post your interest and we could open new threads on specific held/could be quite interested in Holding ones from the list.

I'm not keen on FMG and won't be wasting much time at all on it.GRR is for the retrace I reckon and GWR is one from the list that is involved with bleeding Gold "Discovery" and I got a bad attitude to Gold involvement too in my 'will i buy it' watchlist making.[LCY is another one]

I'm not going to dismiss GWR from my 'researech' straight off but,well,I might get 'disrespectful' if I'm subjected to a 'Forget the Iron Ore It's got GOLD!!!' post.

there's a few other 'points of view' that can jack my back up.I'll try my best to stay 'polite' but my absolute line in d'sand is
I resent 3 line,10 word replies or comments.That is No Contribution to Content.

ps-neither am i too 'fascinated' by wave count analysis that is not 'backed' by setting up an Actual Buy or Sell by the contributor.Are you using the Waves to Decide or just merely 'swanning' around?

Anyway,will chuck some charts up on some Possibiles I see probably Sunday.


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peterloh
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Friday, March 19, 2010 - 04:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



jaded, good that you are going to research iron ore and I also agree that you have to cut down on the list. I am in MMX, mainly for its size and thus the potential. I am also in MGX which is operating profitably but lacking in size. It was on the edge but recovered well. I have given TTY the flick as all it is doing is to repay debts to Noble because of some foolish deals by the previous CEO,a good company destroyed and will take time to recover.The company is also small and the reserves won't last till it can find some other mines to get into.AGO has given me the slip, so I don't know whether it is worthwhile chasing.Like you I am not keen on FMG because of Andrew Forest, a legacy of the company he previously run.
Yes I am very keen on MMX for the long haul, which also has 50% in the Oakatee, port and rails, but its potential is in the longer term.I am interested in other opinions, iron ore is the metal to be in currently. Today's retracement is because of yesterday strong rise, I have no problem with it. I am interested in what you and others come up with.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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Friday, March 19, 2010 - 05:08 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



You didn't say what your thoughts are on image replies.
Hehe........






'You, you, and you ... Panic. The rest of you, come with me.'
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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hershy
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Friday, March 19, 2010 - 05:28 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



OK, on a serious note:
I like MGX because of it's apparent predictability.
I think that you will agree that this is a share with positive momentum with periods of weakness allowing for fairly easy low risk entries. I do admit the last weakness was quite marked and many would have quit the stock as no doubt stop loss orders would have been hit.
Looking forward I can only repeat the chartists' mantra:
UNLESS PROVEN OTHERWISE, HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF !

I don't have an Elliott wave count on MGX perhaps Rudy can post one if he sees this post but if what we see now with a possible lower high a further spike down to below $1.29 but above $1.25 is quite likely. This would be the third wave of the corrective process to be followed by a news set if impulsive waves. I look to MGX moving above the Fib 50% level and then take aim at a new high.
Although I don't trade them, I see MGX has warrants and of course CFDs for those with a yen for leverage.

So Jaded, as you can see, I am still here to annoy you with short comments with no content and Elliot waves counts. But my purpose is NOT to annoy, it is to amuse myself and hopefully others. Oh, and to discuss charts.




'You, you, and you ... Panic. The rest of you, come with me.'
http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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jaded
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 01:43 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter,Hershy,
I'm 'experimenting' in using Momentum 'Theory' in share selection.Momentum Theory as 'introduced' in Colin's newsletter.I assume you've read the first article in a 3 part series.It's some Bond Uni Academic that written a book and 'hooked' up with a Capital Management mob and is discoursing on setting up Mechanical Systems based on Momentum.

Particularly,you peterloh,have you read this newsletter?

As an aside,peter you make stock selection [IMHO] on a basis of whether the share is 'allowed' to be Margin Lent on.These usually are 'matured' companies market capitalised at over a Billion$$ even when their fallen angels [quite often]
I am not 'interested' in such companies.I prefer Small that could grow to Mid to Big ie go from under $100mil to $200mil to $500mil to the Billion.

To me that's Momentum.

Anyway using the IC Stock Scanner on the above Watchlist I ran a scan over the list on the basis simply of Price Change in a week[5 days] and a month[21 days]
Percent was 2% and 8% change respectively.I came up with those parameters 'vaguely' on 100% Momentum in a Year.[there's 13 sorta 21 day periods in a trading year]

Anyway some shares qualifed in both the week and month scans-
these were GRR,IRD,LCY,SPH.

So I'm assuming these have the Momentum factor of the Bond Uni bloke's theory 'set up'.Theory is Momentum is Maintained,until it stops.[stay with the trend til the bend at the end]

It's not like this scan of this particular watchlist of Iron Ore is going to give me a 'clue' for entering the new weekly Comp.
From memory I think GRR had the greatest month increase,GRR has been and gone for me but it's rise was a bit inflated [IMV] and it's for the retrace quite substantial soon.

But the scan above has given me some basis for culling the 20 share list.Which ones currently have Momentum as defined as doing a 100% Rate in a week or month.

Only took a couple of minutes to do this scan.Way shorter in time than typing out this post!!

later...


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bridog
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 02:39 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded and all,

Welcome back jd, I admire the way you think.

Had a bit of a look at TTY which jumped in price on Friday.

Excitement! TTY headlines a NPAT of $13.7m for half year to Dec 09 on a market cap of $45m.

Come down! Includes $4.7m forex gains and reversal of previous impairment of $3.8m.

Still $5.2m adjusted NPAT is still good. Looking at cash flows from operations shows positive cash flow of $11.2 million, looking good.

So have the directors and executives been getting on the bandwagon then? Um, no, the MD and another director have 50,000 shares between them, value $9,000. Hmmm. And executives? Not a one has any financial interest other than his pay. What the?

Well what about major shareholders then? The major shareholder is Jonesville Ltd which has a 20% stake. I can only assume this is the holding company for Noble Group, to whom the company is in debt to for $55m, considerably more than the value of their shareholding. Another major shareholder is OM Holdings who have just reduced their shareholdings by 10% this month.

So a bit of due diligence shows a disconnect between what the company is saying (in reports) and how the people in the know are really acting. I donít think Iíve ever seen a more plain example.

Think Iíll leave that one alone, for now anyhow. Peter, you were right!


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bridog
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 02:59 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Re: TTY - I should qualify the report to state the directors and executive shareholdings are as reported in the June 09 financial report. I have no way of knowing if they have been buying since.


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bridog
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Re TTY - Except of course that there has not been any subsequent declaration of change of directors interests .


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sway
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 04:58 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Does SDL deserve consideration? It came out of the mire OK early last year but hasn't gone anywhere since. I hold but losing patience.

sdl

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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espresso
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 05:28 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Great Research Bridog.
very well explained.


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jaded
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yes bridog TTY has had a tragic scenario through it's involvement with Gold on the side.[Monarch fiasco etc]Also seems they have limited mine life,haven't had the money to expand reserves.
but it is 'leveragable' by it's low price and may come good.I prefer the 18 cent BTV who are looking to reopen an old BHP tenement in the NT.It's unfortunately seeming to go back into Gold as well.A deal it had to sell it's Gold Tenements in Canada for $7.5mil seems to have fallen thru.
I figured this money would have been earmarked for the proposed maybe BHP revitalisation so sold BTV last week but may well buy back in lower 12/14 cents if the 'whim' takes me.

Anyhow,I haven't got into the FA/Mechanics of the above list.Just done a 3 month 25% gain momentum scan.
11 shares came up [incl MMX and TTY]Run the scan your self so I don't have to type out the list of 11.

However I thought that I might review the ones NOT showing this 3 month Momentum of 25% gain.Why?

Well,isn't it 'sector' theory that all members follow the general upward trend.Maybe not as fast as the leaders and maybe if there is specific individual company problems it doesn't happen but I thought that checking out
1]the laggards
2] 'divining' some reason/what FActor drove the 25% Leaders

may give me some clues on which ones to concentrate on.

The "problem' is feeling that Iron Ores best days are over.Doing the 'should of bought 6 months ago'angst or the 'I like/want to buy the Bottom or not at all' attitude.

Iron Ore should soon have a significant Bench Price Rise.
Peter Loh elsewhere 'swears'the Chinese need Millions upon millions of Stainless Steel Sinks!![that's zinc too]
well with practical and anecdotal 'evidence' like that?
I can't be wasting my time,right?

yeah,solid research.
Happily I do hold IFE that is showing 'adequate' momentum.Just thought I'd try and find 1/2 more.

get back to it.


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jaded
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 06:51 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Is any Forum member a predominately Momentum Trader/Follower?
or is Colin's newsletter really exposing What's New?

I realise that by concentrating only on a few Iron Ore shares and 'picking' Iron Ore as a Momentum Sector is not really 'correct' momentum methodology.
but that's what amuses,brings some joy to the jaded.

I'm asking for some Indicator/Theory that 'ranks' Momentum shares for me to apply.Anyone??

Anyhow,here's the list of shares that did 25%+ over the last 3 months.brackets[] are the Percent Figure for 'ranking'
AGO{34};BTV{64};BRM{81};FRS{60};GRR{112};IOH{56};IRD{28};IFE{95};MMX{29};SPH{138 };TTY{29}.

Missing were BCI,CFE,CXM,GBC,GWR,and MGX ie these did not 'momentum' over 25 % in the last 3 months.

sway,SPH[138%] seems to be on the African Adventure,too.It has only about 100 million odd shares on issue.
Contrast that to Sundance and I think it's best to add to Wine in a Stein [weinstein] method,some Free Float/Size of Share Register checking out.
we were in Sundance years ago with peterloh,weren't we?
I didn't like it then and certainly see it's Avoid reasons.

BTV is the penny upper and comer maybe.BRM is Half Billion Capitalisation but has only about 100mil shares on issue.
BCI is one of my "FA" checkout projects tomorrow.

cheers.

ps sway-should i put your all ords compare 'indicator' in to my charts?What the 'reading' say?What's it show one?
like if sundance is stepping on the toes of being 40% underperforming why is that "good"?or at least,indicative?


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sway
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Saturday, March 20, 2010 - 08:03 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



jd

The ratio indicator http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/price_ratio.php is the IC equivalent of what Weinstein calls Relative Strength (nothing to do with RSI). It is calculated as the change in the share price divided by the change in the index (XAO in this case) over the time period selected. The actual number ie 40% is not relevant. What matters is the slope of the line. If it has recently changed from downward sloping to upward sloping, it means that the stock has started to rise quicker than the underlying index. That's a good thing.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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peterloh
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Sunday, March 21, 2010 - 01:16 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sway, I meant to follow up on the Relative Strength with you some time ago, but forgot all about it. Is there anyway of it being express in the chart?

I didn't have your patience with Sundance and had given up on it a long time ago.TTY will be a long time before they see any money. They will have to pay back to Noble first and by then not much will be left for the shareholders with TTY's limited reserves.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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sway
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Sunday, March 21, 2010 - 07:43 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter

For all practical purposes, you can use IC's Price Ratio as a surrogate for Relative Strength. I think I posted my Weinstein project back when you were asking.. Just in case, here it is again.

application/octet-streamweinstein
weinstein oz.ini (51.5 k)


Save the file and import it into IC (File>Import Files>)

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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peterloh
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Sway, I was also in SDL but lost patience with it, I do not have any now.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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sway
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Username: sway

Post Number: 607
Registered: 12-2005

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Sunday, June 20, 2010 - 09:25 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Terrible news.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/missing-mining-executives-named/s tory-e6frf7jx-1225882007880

My thoughts are with the families.

Hoping they are found safe.
Sway







This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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dennis_menace
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Username: dennis_menace

Post Number: 1244
Registered: 09-2002

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Wednesday, August 25, 2010 - 12:08 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Takeover offer for Sphere Minerals by Xstrata.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/sphere-takeover-may-signa l-new-trend/story-e6frg9ex-1225909348368

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