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BTV Batavia -A FE "Emerger"

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » BTV Batavia -A FE "Emerger"

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jaded
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Post Number: 119
Registered: 03-2010

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Sunday, April 18, 2010 - 08:09 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Batavia is a New Iron Ore "Go'.The Company has been around for years being a typical 'explore' from Gold/Uranium and pretty much anything going.It has probably had several Management changes along with it's several 'enterprises'.

However,recently it 'got on to a Main Chance' Iron Ore and I think it will now be a 'new' company focused on becoming a fairly significant Iron Ore Producer within 2 years maybe sooner.

It has an Option to buy by [I think] June extensive Ex BHP Tenements in the Northern Territory.

BHP in the 50's and 60's held these tenements and did extensive Drilling and Exploration etc on them.I don't think JORC had been invented in the 50's so these results do not comply to those standards..yet.
But BHP was pretty 'positive' about this "Green Field" Iron Ore Prospect and were going to open up operations until the Pialbra WA was 'discovered'.BHP went there instead and these NT tenements reverted to the Crown and eventually were taken up and held now by a private,non listed miner/explorer.

Anyhow,the chief matter is that BTV has access to the BHP records that identify prime spots for production.Millions of Tonnes whatever.Some of which is the good stuff DSO[Direct Shipping Ore] that has High 60%+ Iron Ore [FE] content.

Furthermore the Northern Territory is not the wasteland Infrastructure wise it was in BHP's day of the 50's/60's.These tenements now have 'nearness' to rail and port facilities.They also border another field that's on the Producer in 2 years band wagon and there's talk of building their own port facility right nearby.

If you're into geography/Google Maps this is located around the Roper River,NT side of the bottom of the Gulf Of Carpentaria.

So that's a synopsis of the story/scenario re BTV in it's current form.
A chart from when this all got mooted to the market just a few months ago [December from memory].I reckon this is the only time period that's 'relevant'.I consider BTV virtually a new company,a variation on an IPO so it's chart/price history from 2/3/5 years or more ago is completely irrelevant[to me]in 'indicating' anything about it's future action.


I've bought'n'sold BTV but do not currently hold.There have been recent events in the share itself as well as the Market that make me seek a 'cautious' re entry into BTV but will go into such 'esoteric' ponderings later.


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jaded
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Sunday, April 18, 2010 - 02:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Above one has the Gist-An Ex Bhp Tenement/Lot is going to be opened by BTV to produce,in maybe 2 years,Iron Ore that includes the Highest Grade 'jargoned' as DSO.

Why is such a Company so low in Market Capitalisation then?

well,I'll tell ya why,hey?

BTV only has an Option to Buy,Start on the Road to Production.
From my memory,they have an option to buy from the Unlisted Holder at $10million + some 150 million shares in BTV of this 'Venture'.
I think the option is for 6 months and expires June/July
[i forget exactly DYOR].

So BTV is doing what's called Due Diligence with an eye to Taking Up this Option/Deal with the current non listed company Holder of these 'fab prospect' Tenements.

Do you follow?BTV is taking the first steps on the Road.
It is expending money on deciding IF it's a Goer and relying on a legally binding Option to Buy at a 'set' Price the Means/Tenements/the Ground they[BTV] will 'bleed' Riches from or rather,in my terms,Gunner Do Big Things with.

Now BTV,again from memory,[DYOR] has about 140 million shares Issued and they are proposing to Issue another 150 million to the Joint Venture/current Non Listed "Controller" of these 'desirable' Tenements [ex BHP].

Now,don't you worry,the 150 million "Buy" shares won't give the unlisted 'Mob" 50% control.No there'll be Millions of Shares Issued to fund 'development' of this Entity IF the option is Taken Up.

There will most likely be an All Shareholder Rights Issue Pro Rata at or around the time of BTV actually OWNERSHIP of these sites.[July/Sept this year].

Are you getting d'Picture as to Why? this thread is in Long Term?Why it's titled an Emerger?

Sorry,just can't set up some indicators devised by some 'expert' to 'ensure' one don't do ya dough/confirm one should Buy in expectation of Mammon/Mammoth Profits from buying Batavia over any and all other 'choices'.

Frankly,one would be mad[or richer than I] to put,say,$50k down on this NOW but maybe,in d'future,depending on 'circumstance',how things 'develop'?
well $50k IN Batavia could be a 'small time- Go.

Enough Background/Long Term Prospects.
Will get back to you with current/short term "action' and thoughts.... later...after another sunday arvo drink..before the league starts 4pm or that ART show 3:30pm.


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jaded
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Sunday, April 18, 2010 - 03:31 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





Some chart 'observations' short term-

That Dominant candle taking BTV out of the 18centish consolidation.It was all formed by a single transaction when someone bought the whole Ask/Sell line all the way to the top of the wick and then continued to Accumulate at what?22 ish in the following days til the Trading Halt.

I've put in the 8 day simple to 'estimate' the VWAP of this Accumulator.Some 5 million shares volumed in these 8 days and 'vaguely' one can estimate the "Accumulators' share at approx 22ish VWAP.

Now I love a "Conspiracy' Theory and I'm not ashamed to 'dream' one up on shares and what's happening!

See the Trading Halt was for making a Placement of some 40million shares +Options exercisable at 13.5 cents in December 2012.
Sophisticated Investors AND a Significant Other got their placement shares at 19 cents +5 cents for the 13.5 cent Options.Total 24 cents.

Sophistos got 20 million shares at 19 cents and 10 mil 13.5 exercise Options for a total 24 cents[options at 5 cents]
and d'Other got the same[20 mil and 10 mil] all on their ownsome.

BTV raised some $9million by this 'deal'/placement for Development Costs with an additional commitment on options [20 mil x .135=$2.6 mil]

Now,remember that there was $10 mil in exercising the Option to Buy[along with 150 million share issue to the vendor]

BTV already HAD this $10 million BEFORE this Placement.
So this placement is solely 'working capital' to JORC up this prospect.Justify exercising the Option.

Do you follow?BTV did NOT go into this placement deal without Already having the Cash in Hand [$10 million] to perform the "Buy".
They have done a placement so as to Justify Performing Buying by "proving' up Reserves so as to Perform to d'Deal[JORCing].

Anyway,the Significant Other Placement getter was a Chinese Major Steel Producer.20 million shares at 19 c+ 10 million options exercisable 2012 at 13.5 cents.

If you take in the 150 mil to the tenement vendor you have say 300 mil shares and so this Chinese Company is now a Substantial Holder[over 5%].Can't be bothered bringing in the number of Exercisable Options but as a Generality the Chinese are now a Substantial Holder.

This is 'interesting' but is it 'comforting'?

well,look at Friday.Lifting of the Trading Halt.What does that candle 'type' indicate?

I'm thinking that the Sophisticated Investo's with some 20 million new shares in their claws are 'weak' hands[willing sellers].
A series of Down Days will shake them out,bleeding arbitrage 'clowns' more money than sense 'dabblers' that the general Sophisticated Investor proves to be!!

So I'm not buying Monday's Open and though I got a few more angles to 'share',just can't be bothered at the moment so..

cheers.


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jaded
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Saturday, April 24, 2010 - 09:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





so a chart update on this week's BTV 'action'.

As I see it,one has to consider that 20 million shares were recently placed at 19 cents with that motley crew called Sophisticated Investors.

Now,I've done a number of posts about Who/What/Why are Sophisticated Investors and the effects that they have on share prices immediately/within a month of Placement.

just don't even won't repeat myself on this general subject.

So BTV has good chances of being a Legitimate/Profitable Long Term Hold.
It is also well known/written about in books by 'experts' that Buying is not the 'Problem'.Easy to Buy,especially a share like BTV that has 'good' prospects.

I'm just thinking that the current Market situation may/should give an opportunity to buy lower than say 28 cents.

Why? because any downturn drama will have those 19cent placement getters 'cashing in' and subsequently ..well..BTV's price will drop appreciably say to the low 20's?

The Chief "Problem" I see in Placements is that they take out Buying Pressure.
I mean all these Millionaire Clients of some Broker[or friends of Management] are handed these Parcels of 19cent shares when the Bid was running 22/24 and shares were 'hard;'to get in Volume at that price.
Suddenly d'insiders/smart[big] money are handed as many as they want at 19 cents?

d'Market[joe/jill blow,Pilgrims to Mammon]get 'told' that the company is now 'financed' etc etc and we get these Runs as shown in the chart above and....

Do you follow?Get d'Picture?

I say the above chart shows a Distribution by the Sophistos of a Part of their 20million 19cent Placement and when the Buyers/Believers are Filled?well the price will come back/retrace as the 'weak hands'/arbitrageurs of Placements,Leave the Building.

So,where will it retrace to?Want a to the cent price?

Look,you're suppose to be Pilgrims not Peasants!!!

I can't even 'guarantee' it will blessed Retrace!!

d'Dynamic may change on a sixpence.Like they may News Out some highly significant 'discovery'/confirmation of Millions of Tonnes of DSO in one place right next to d'bleeding Rail/Road Network!!

but I'll give ya d'Hint.Look at trying to get in on the Options.Sophistos paid 5 cents for theirs.
They are exercisable at 13.5 cents in 2012[i think December 2012]

Anyhow it's the Options one should look into as a 'long term' buy.
IMHO.


Is anyone following this?Is anyone seriously thinking/interested in BTV?
I'm not so 'sad' as to do this for my own amusement.

anyhow,back into d'bottle like a genie,hey?







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jaded
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Monday, May 03, 2010 - 09:47 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





BTV is on the RoadShow Route and is getting very positive Press.
The ex BHP tenement status with a lot of data just needing to be updated/JORC classified for fast track production next year is 'attacting' interest.

Main problem is the recent placement to Sophisticated Investore [as outlined above].
Will these Sophistos cash in IF there's a General Market 'Crash' or will they hold on for the Spike in SP that will/should occur on any Fabulous Drilling Results/Lab Report?

There are Options[BTVO] expiring in the 'distant' future[1/2 years]
I bought 30k/4gradi$h of these and am looking to buy a similar cash value of heads.
I believe the Sophistos because of the Millions of shares they got will not be able to distribute these to the current Volume Average so they'll Hold....as long as any general downturn is not severe.

Anyway it's all speculation.Giving it a Go.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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