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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

CWN - Crown Limited

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dennis_menace
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Friday, July 01, 2011 - 01:25 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Broke resistance on its forth attempt today.




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muzza
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Friday, June 17, 2016 - 12:51 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Its been a long while since this thread has been explored.

Given CWNs recent announcements regarding the demerger of various Intl assets, restructuring the balance sheet effectively and a potential IPO as well the share price has responded.

Given the nature of this business and the general state of the markets, I'd be keen to get views from the forum on this stock.

From a T/A perspective, let me upload two charts, BOTH are weekly with this week as yet incomplete <warning>.

First a simple Support / Resistance view, with a upward sloping triangle. Note the breakout is very close to the vertex of the triangle, which as I seem to recall suggests that this is not a strong pattern

CWN1 - Support/Resistance

Second, lets zoom out and overlay a Fibonacci just to get an overall view of the level of retracement(s)

CWN2 - Fibonacci

Here I see that the bulls pushed up the stock on volume > 9 period SMA of volume (reiterating that the week is incomplete), but while the high was above the 38.2% line it didnt hold above.

Perhaps if the stock rallies on good volume there could be a price target of <say??> $14.67 by <say> Sept if we get a run to the 61.8% line.

And then we might get some kickers from potentials like the mooted IPO?

I took some at $12ish ... so with an entry of $12, a reasonably tight stop (given where XJO is pointed) of $11.6 (the low of the dominant candle on 18/12/2015) - with a trade time frame of circa 11 weeks (to sept) .. the projected exit of $14.67 gives a gain of 22.25%.

The Risk:Reward ratio computed is circa $6.67 .. for every $ of "Risk" there is a potential (stress potential) "Reward" of $6.67

I am not an expert in all these nuances of trading, so please don't rely on the info here - do your own research - but I would appreciate your commentary on the above and of course your own analysis.

Regards
Muzza







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muzza
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Tuesday, July 26, 2016 - 01:37 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This is starting to get interesting

I think we will learn much this week / next week or two

Weekly Chart: WARNING the last candle is this week, so at the time of writing the week is INCOMPLETE and the definitive chart will be at the close of this week. Please do keep this in mind.

CWN3

SP ($13.08) has poked its head above the large dominant "breakout" candle.

At the time of writing this, the SP today is down a touch at $13.03

Interesting - but now looking for follow through this week with serious volume.

regards
Muzza


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muzza
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Saturday, August 06, 2016 - 11:10 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Update on CWN - Weekly Chart:

CWN

Four white candles with the 12 & 26 EMAs separating ... a reasonably positive indication of a healthy trend.
However volume has been below the 9 period MA of Volume, would prefer to see more volume but given its proximity to the MA perhaps its good enough.

The most recent candle shows open to close "compression" and the wick to the High is greater than the one to the Low. I think that candle TA suggests that the bulls are being beaten down from the highs .. impending weakness? .. Perhaps not given the size of the wicks, it may just be sharper traders who picked the V-Bottom at $10 selling into the uptrend - I tend to think this maybe the case given the lowe(er) volumes.

Daily Chart:

CWN

Uptrend clearly in place, and we have seen price action retrace to the 12 period EMA, respect that level and bounce off it with a decent looking white candle with volume above the 9 dy MA. Bullish.

Managing the trade:

Given my entry and time frame, I tightened stops a bit - worse case scenario means I will get our square after brokerage if I get stopped out.

Given the daily chart, the weight of the evidence suggests that there is still some more gas in the tank, and CWN could run a bit more.

Will this get me to my $14+ target over the next 4-6 weeks ... lets see!

Any comments on this analysis from the experienced traders on IC would be gratefully accepted.

Usual disclaimer - these are just my views, and do not constitute any recommendations.

regards
Muzza


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shadetreetrader
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Saturday, August 06, 2016 - 03:11 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Muzza, could you clarify as to which time frame you are managing the trade in.
Is it intra-day, end of day or end of week?
Regards
STT


My posts should not be taken as stock recommendations or advice.

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muzza
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Saturday, August 06, 2016 - 04:47 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day STT,

My system trades the intermediate timeframe - that's kinda my "time-line" for turning non-performing trades into capital that I can redeploy. So Weekly / End of week views are important to me from that perspective.

Entries & Exists are fine-tuned / managed via looking at End of Day data - I am not slick enough to do anything Intra-day, nor do I want to be a screen watcher - Life is too short!

Best Regards
Muzza


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shadetreetrader
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Ok then, although we both trade the intermediate time frame, under normal market conditions I only use end of week data for exits, to avoid noise.
I'll leave it to those more adept at distinguishing signal from noise in shorter time frames to comment.
Regards
STT


My posts should not be taken as stock recommendations or advice.

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gundy
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Saturday, August 06, 2016 - 10:43 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Muzza as I'm not into predictions but thought it could help to share my shorter term system and show it in a current trade I am in. I much prefer weekly charts for trades and exits but I occasionally use daily's. I entered because of Bullish Divergence on the daily chart between my indicators and price action which in the right trade has had good percentage outcome for me. As CVO hit its new price low the indicators I use didn't make a new low... so I decided to enter the trade on 30.06.16. If price closed below the last low I was out for a small loss. After it started to rise I have been following the trade with a mental stop loss on a CLOSE below the low point of the last 5 days on which I would exit the trade with no questions asked. I have a price range where I think the price will hopefully get to... but will only exit the trade as per my daily S/L. I am treating this as a short term trade as I do not think this is the beginning of a new trend but just a retracement. The same system was used on QAN recently. I think if you have entered the trade on CWN just follow with you systems S/L and enjoy the ride. Hope this has helped in some small way Muzza.





Disclaimer: My posts should not be taken as stock recommendations or advice and should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by this member.

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muzza
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Sunday, August 07, 2016 - 12:40 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks STT and Gundy,

Your comments and inputs are most appreciated - I come to IC to have a look at what people are doing and to learn.
Often times there are posts with very little evidence or rationale of "why this trade" and "how it will be managed", price target etc - let alone timeframe to price target!.

I fully appreciate that many folks are guarded about their systems for all sorts of valid reasons, but many posts seem to lack line of sight to any system - so I am very grateful when people take the time to explain things to those of us who are trying to learn and develop.

STT your comments regarding "noise" on daily's are very valid. I fear I was not precise enough in my response to you above ... I have some discretion around this challenge in my system. If volatility is low then Weekly (especially for exits) is what I pre-dominantly rely on. However I do try to fine tune Entry via daily action(s). One could well argue that volatility is low at this time if you look at VIX etc. but that's the US... In AUS? - That aside, for various health reasons I have some additional time to allow for screen-jockeying (!!!) - and perhaps I should refrain from this. Signal to noise - very valid I must re-think.

Gundy - really appreciate your insights.
Divergence is a powerful signal.
There used to be a trader called Bundy (!!) who frequented IC years ago who used CCI and a key signal for his entry.
Can I ask if your S/L exit strategy is actually an automatic S/L via your brokers platform - or paper based with you pulling the trigger manually?
The reason that I ask is I am trying to understand how people manage LARGE institutions who engage in S/L raids.

When I post charts on IC, I try to keep them simple to view & relate to the post. At the risk of going against my own philosophy on this - here is a more detailed view of my trade on CWN.

My system is attempting to synthesise Weinstein tenets and elements of Elders triple screen.

Weekly - alternative view

CWN

Elder suggests really getting to know a stock or commodity that you are trading as they all have "personality" - maybe they do or don't!

Quite a while ago I shorted CWN based on signals from this system, and it was very profitable for me.

On this chart the dotted purple lines are an envelope whose levels are computed with reference to Highs (the upper) and Lows (the lower) - both modulated by 2xATR(26).

A 26 period EMA gives me the "central" line - the Green MA.

These levels help me identify risk:reward ratios and thus price targets over the timeframe.

The system then has a bunch of formulae whose goals are to help identify Short Entry (SE), Short Exit (SX), Longs - LE, LX .. and S/L triggers ( modified chandelier).

The system also attempts to codify major turning points to get me on "alert" .. I look for divergence between Elders Bull or Bear Power and Price action. (The red and green histograms ... hard to read at 900x600 pixels!)

I have also found Force Index (blue squiggly line) very useful in signalling where the Bull or the Bear is poised to overwhelm the other - with the goal of me potentially being able to front run the trend reversal.

To independently calibrate those signals, I look for (say taking Long as an example) - whether the stock has formed a solid base (Weinstein Stage 1) and whether or not price action has poked its head above the Stage 1 range levels ... in this chart the rectangle around price action.

MACD Histo helps me tune my entry / exit.
(I can and do flip into Daily view of this template to assess).

With CWN per the posts previously, things are looking interesting, but volume is still something I am not totally comfortable with.

Anyway, in the spirit of sharing and learning this is my approach, and I thank the two of you for taking the time to respond and comment above.

Regards
Muzza


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gundy
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Sunday, August 07, 2016 - 03:24 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Muzza "in the spirit of sharing and learning" Well said!!... I actually just popped back in one day to check the forum out... after so many years must have just wanted to have a look?? Then found members like STT and co posting and doing a great job so thought it would be nice to add some support and to be a part of the group again. I remember Bundy well he was a great member and smart trader he was in to options. Bundy used to call me his younger brother Gundy and tell me that our mother wasn't happy with the way I was growing up!! I still think of him and Snifter.... They were Good days. Thanks for returning the post with your trading ideas this is what makes a great forum we don't know each other but we have Trading in common. I hope my post made sense its not my whole plan but as STT stated in a previous post... its a current trade and IM putting my money where my mouth is so to speak.... he used a reference to a lower part of the anatomy but I'm sure its the same meaning ..I had just had a couple of glasses of red and was pretty relaxed so I'm please my post came out OK


Disclaimer: My posts should not be taken as stock recommendations or advice and should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by this member.

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gundy
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Hi Muzza sorry about invading you thread with the FLT thread.... but it did bring me back to this thread and I have had another a look at your CWN trade. Now this is only MO and even my wife doesn't listen to me!! But as a fellow trader and for what its worth here it is... broke out of its trading range but has struggled to go higher on low volume. To me it means the smart money is not on the trade yet... but if it retests the breakout ST and then bounces I think that is where I would be entering as its a low risk entry and I think it has $14.00 and maybe even 14.50 in it should it bounce on higher volume after the retest.





Disclaimer: My posts should not be taken as stock recommendations or advice and should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by this member.

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muzza
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G'day Gundy,
No problems re FLT etc.

Re CWN, I agree that volume is what has been concerning me, and we need some decent volume to kick this thing on.

Anyway, sometimes the market takes a bit of time to mull over company announcements and changes in strategy. This announcement is what I think, and its my opinion only, could represent good value to the shareholder over the longer term.

CWN7

From the thin volume, and also factoring for other announcements like legal challenges to the Barangaroo development it is extremely likely that many are on the sidelines.

Anyway, I have a little more time with this trade to see if it reaches my target, and at least I wont exit at a loss.

Separately, and not for a trading forum, this stock might make it into my "investment" portfolio ... I myself am still mulling over casinos / gaming / entertainment as a thematic investment, especially considering the evolution of Asia.

Note that CWN Crown holds a significant interest in Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (MCE), listed on NASDAQ, operating casino/hotel properties in Macau.

All of this is just my thought processes as a private "punter" and others need to do their own research - usual disclaimers about not being a financial adviser etc.

regards
Muzza


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gundy
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Hi Muzza

My post was purely based on TA and I was hoping if you brought near that breakout and your S/L is set below it and it returns to the support then help may be on the way. I'm sure I'm not the only trader/investor thinking that would be a good low risk buy area. FWIW I'm optimistic long term on CWN. Best of luck with your trade Muzza


Disclaimer: My posts should not be taken as stock recommendations or advice and should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by this member.

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muzza
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Friday, August 19, 2016 - 07:59 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



CWN Update - Weekly

CWN

An "ok" week but on the daily's there are two red candles for the last two days. Retracement that has not breached support.

The long wick on the this weeks candle suggests that while the Bulls have run this up, the Bears have beaten this down to the close of 13.62

Stops have been trailed and I will let this run a little longer (to sept) to see if I can get to the price target I set myself, but its unlikely it will add a buck over the next three weeks or so.

regards
Muzza







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muzza
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Tuesday, February 28, 2017 - 07:45 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day guys,

Well CWN didn't play out the way that I was analysing it - market shocks etc.

But I have continued monitor it.

A few more announcements and now we see CWN well on the way to close the down gap.

Note that this is a weekly chart so the last candle is an incomplete one as its only reflects data to 28/2

CWN9

Interesting - but not super exciting since entry at $12 (S/L say the low of the big up candle - $11.31) with a target of $13 (maybe $14) represents a reward:risk ratio of 1.45 to 2.9

Probably better candidates elsewhere.

Regards
Muzza

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