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Double Bottom Pickers

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » Double Bottom Pickers

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msparks
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Tuesday, July 19, 2011 - 08:56 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



From 7 dollars to 1 dollar, what went wrong ?

Perpetual are loading the truck - 12% holding now
(might explain PPT share price)

31/5/2011
Hills Holdings announced that a combination of the strong appreciation of the A$, aggressive import competition and the lack of available large-pipe project work in Australia has meant that it is no longer viable for its Orrcon Steel subsidiary to continue to manufacture large pipe and tube product at its Unanderra site in NSW. Orrcon Steel's large pipe and tube business will now move from one comprised of a mix of manufacturing and importing to a business based solely on importing large pipe and tube. The manufacturing facilities at Unanderra will close early in the new financial year after all current commitments to customers have been met. Future demand will be met through existing inventory and imported quality product.
25/2/2011
Hills Holdings advised that it is working closely with the Environment Protection Authority of SA and the Department of Health to investigate groundwater contamination near the principal manufacturing site previously owned by the company at Edwardstown, in Adelaide's inner-southern suburbs. The company sold the 7.78ha property in 2007 to Colonial First State Global Asset Management. The company is taking this matter very seriously and continues to work with all relevant parties to fully determine the nature of any contamination.




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Tuesday, July 19, 2011 - 09:43 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The old WAN - now SWM








"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Fairfax FXJ




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Billabong BBG




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Goodman Fielder GFF




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Silex SLX




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Toll TOL




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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assuming 10K each purchased at the open today and a 15% stop loss





"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Up 1% but underperforming the market which is up 2% so it must be true what they say about " bottom pickers " !!!




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Big move from Silex today.





"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Still underperforming the all ords.
Not a bad return for the week but it has been the best week on the ozy market for a long time.
I will have a look at it in a months time and see how the double bottoms are going then.




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Only one left - SLX

The all ords "benchmark" fell the full 15% stop loss,effectively stopped out on the 9th August.

To form a double bottom the stocks have to be trending down and the market has been trending down since also.

It's about the trend stupid !!!
The Stock Trend and the Market Trend






"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Monday, August 29, 2011 - 08:15 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A few of the double bottoms are having a bounce after a false break to lower lows "perhaps".

This might be a way to trade these bounces.

http://www.projectstreamer.com/users/course/100417_Switch_longside/100417_Switch_longside.html




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Hills had a higher low to initiate a switch method trade.




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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These 2 have bounced but no higher low in place.






"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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The remaining three were
Silex - going sideways
BBG - substantial falls
GFF - substantial falls






"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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jimmyswell
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Hi Msparks,

Back on 14 Jan 11, I added a post to one of your 2005 threads comparing HVN and JBH.

https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/316907/451430.html#MB

I wondered if they had reached a double bottom and were going to pick up. Clearly they've fallen a lot further since then, but might be worth another inspection in the light of this thread.

I can post charts from where I am at present, but might do something from home later tonight.

(Message edited by jimmyswell on August 30, 2011)


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msparks
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Tuesday, August 30, 2011 - 08:24 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Jim
Looks like there is about a 50/50 chance if they turn around from the double bottom or they fall straight through and keep going down.

Will there be shops in the future or just big warehouse's with couriers delivering stuff all over the place to internet shoppers at their home ?

The link in previous post outlines a method to trade the reversals.

I guess you would need to enter at one of these points below and work out how much you want to risk before entering if you think the bottom is the bottom.
Perhaps it is easier to just find stocks in an uptrend and enter on a pullback. These 2 are definitely not in an uptrend and neither is the market.
So how do you define a trend or an uptrend Jim ?










"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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jimmyswell
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My definition of an uptrend (or reversal) is defined by a set of cascading cross-overs, supported by volume.

First trigger is the %williams, then a golden cross of DIs, then the short MA crossing above the medium MA, then the short MA crossing the long MA, finally the medium crossing the long MA. All the while looking for FA intell to confirm a reason for the upturn as well as general market/sector sentiment.

How early and by how much I jump in depends on how risky I view the situation. At each successive trigger point, I've given up some growth/profit but reduced the risk of a negative reversal.


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msparks
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Thursday, September 01, 2011 - 06:53 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Jim
That all makes perfect sense but what do you do at each step in the "cascadation"

This is how I would do it for example

First trigger is the %williams > ooh it triggered, better watch this one

a golden cross of DIs > ooh it crossed too, I had better waite for the first ma crossover for confirmation

then the short MA crossing above the medium MA > ooh, it looks like the move is over i will waite for a pullback now

then the short MA crossing the long MA > ooh, it has gone too far now, if i enter it will pullback and i will be in a losing situation, it is already up 10% from my first trigger

finally the medium crossing the long MA > gee, i should have entered that one before it got away, it is definitely too late now to enter

All the while looking for FA intell to confirm a reason for the upturn as well as general market/sector sentiment.

ooh a bad report, the talking heads on TV are saying a recession, i will sell , otherwise i will lose my small profit

How early and by how much I jump in depends on how risky I view the situation.

gee i am feeling good today, the Bronco's won the footy last night, hey, I am going to buy some shares today, might put half the account on this one, it is going be a huge winner

OR

ah, forgot to put the bin out last night, government is bringing out another tax, bloody rates have gone up again, gee, I better not buy those shares today , too much bad news

At each successive trigger point, I've given up some growth/profit but reduced the risk of a negative reversal

At each successive trigger point my stop loss has widened even further away from my entry so there is less chance i will get stopped out of this one now ,,,(but the risk reward is not there now)

Unfortunately us humans need it to be so mechanical and simple or our brains take over and we constantly make the wrong decisions based on our emotions.
The more indicators and cross overs we use is just more reasons to make an emotions based decision or worse, put off making that most important decision.


"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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jimmyswell
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Friday, September 02, 2011 - 09:40 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Close but no cigar. Your stepwise description reminds me of my early super-cautious trading style. By now, I'm playing with the casino's money, so I can be a bit more aggressive.

I usually buy in at point 2, the DI cross over, with a 2xATR trailing stop. I'm fairly brutal about this exit rule - preservation of capital, departing losing positions, etc.

If the other triggers happen, then I might ride the trend by buying some more, depending on the cash pool at the time.


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msparks
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Friday, September 02, 2011 - 12:48 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good for you Jim.

By the way i just heard Howard Coleman from Team Invest bagging JBH management and apparently they are in 150% debt to equity now so perhaps one to avoid.Old Howard was certainly blessed with the gift of the gab. I reckon he could convince you night was day if he wanted to.

Having said that it will probably rise now....lol

They are getting fairdinkum about selling down the index at the moment ! (5 minute chart)




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Friday, September 09, 2011 - 07:30 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Double Bottom Pickers with a Higher Low



not much volume confirmation on this one





"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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gdd3
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Friday, September 16, 2011 - 11:46 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Sparksie(if I may)...

You could add PDN to your list of "hopeful" Double Bottoms; what do you think?

I'm looking for an entry opportunity to get some PDN(grossly over sold back to 6 years lows again). I believe yesterday's low was a swing low for the next few weeks. My entry level falls in the @1.56 - $1.60 range; it has "gapped" over that in early morning trade so I am hopeful this gap will be tested before she really gets going. Initial target for me is ~ $1.92....BUT THIS JUST ONE TRADER'S POINT OF VIEW ONLY!






Cheers
Dolphin

P.S....I think I have just increased the I.C. Forums participation % for the week by 10% with this entry. No matter, it was only an entry for your benefit!


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msparks
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Friday, September 16, 2011 - 01:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin

The idea is to waite for a higher low I think, but a trader of your skills and ability could trade the double bottom bounce if there is one....

Rarely see a stock in an uptrend have a large correction !!!
These one's (pdn) which drift lower and lower often have a shock or fast move down or gap down sharply.

It is a dangerous game you are playing Dolphin.

I would prefer a GNG or HAR or ADU or AZH and keep an eye on BPT .....but they are not double bottoms.


"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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gdd3
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Friday, September 16, 2011 - 04:26 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sparksie...

The idea is to waite for a higher low I think,...absolutely correct and I was only saying just that to a few trading friends earlier in the week ...Don't know what got onto my head with my previous post??




Cheers
Dolphin}}}}}

(Message edited by gdd3 on September 16, 2011)

(Message edited by gdd3 on September 16, 2011)


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msparks
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Friday, September 16, 2011 - 04:37 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...not (currently) qualified to do that!

So you are doing a course Dolphin ?
Tell me some more ....


"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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msparks
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Strong bounce off the little double bottom of the big flipper day 9th august 2011.




"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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dennis_menace
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Hi Msparks,

AZH is travelling along nicely atm...








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dennis_menace
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And a another stock you mentioned earlier BPT has reached an interesting place!!



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