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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

OST - Does the future look good?

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » OST - Does the future look good?

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peterloh
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Friday, January 27, 2006 - 10:35 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I thought I would start a new thread on OST here as I initially got into OST when the government initially introduced the home grant for first time buyers. This together with the low interest rate which triggered off the building material boom. Since then the housing market has tapered off. OST has been able to increase their supply to the industrial and commercial market.With infrastructure funds coming into the market this has help OST by creating a bigger market.I have sold OST near the top and I have entered OST again in may last year and also trade it short term.I notice OST's SP has moved up significantly on Wednesday and today as I am writing this.
I have promise myself to hold any shares that has gone up in price by at least a year, this one seems to have the making of a future star with consistent and stable earning in a not so desirable steel sector/industry.
On the weekly chart OST histogram seems to be turning upwards again into positive territory.This is one of the shares that I have consistently produced good and reliable result.






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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Wednesday, February 08, 2006 - 12:15 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



OST - It looks like OST is giving me opportunity to top up again, considering the recent rise in the SP.








-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Thursday, February 09, 2006 - 12:46 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I picked up a nice amount of OST at $3.45 because I thought it has been oversold.Towards the end of the day I sold them around $3.55 whilst it respected the support level of $3.52 and closed at $3.58.
I haven't sold any of my long term holding. I am looking forward to read their half yearly report. Maybe I will keep this one for the long2 term as I have high expectations for it and it has delivered for me.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Monday, March 27, 2006 - 12:36 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This is a ride and a half on OST, since the beginning of the First Home Grant by the government.After a period of consolidation, it is on the move again.One thing I like about OST, is its ability to perform in adverse circumstances.In a year when steel prices is not the best, OST has been able to increase its earning.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Monday, April 03, 2006 - 05:17 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Not bad for a boring steel mill.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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ingot54
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Monday, April 03, 2006 - 05:36 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter -

I am interested to learn more of your strategy here. If you see the chart below, did you at any time decide to exit?

If not, can you say whether you ever had second thoughts about the future of OST?

I confess I would not have the courage to ride out such a retracement. And this is particularly true for me because if I were in such a trade, it almost certainly would be with a degree of margin.

I guess this underlines your method of choosing good fundamentals, as having great merit.

Well done on the original selection at the beginning of the housing move.

OST_1


Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly. Looking for ways to enter CFD trading over long term.

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peterloh
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Monday, April 03, 2006 - 05:56 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivan,

I got out in September 2004 and never managed to get back in till May last year.I get it wrong often by getting out too early, but this one I really got it right from the start and in the middle.If you can find my earlier postings on this thread, you would know I got back in May last year.

I haven't got back on to CPU or AMP either because I want a high percentage return on my trade, and these 2 have got away.I have got back in commodities again and applied 30% of my capital on to resources as I believe it is going to be the growth area for this year and the next, at least.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Wednesday, May 03, 2006 - 10:25 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



OST's double bottom yesterday accompanied by a spinning stop is an indication that the recent retracement has been completed and is likely to move up from here.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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msparks
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Wednesday, May 03, 2006 - 01:06 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Or it is a head and shoulder and will revisit the trend line which happens to be the 200 ema

Too much of a good thing can colour your view




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peterloh
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Thursday, May 04, 2006 - 10:36 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



msparks,

Hilarius will agree with me that fundamentals drive the share price and not the charts.The charts only show the pattern of the trade and the likely future scenarios.

OST is the leader of a duopoly of long steel products.The company has many advantages like an integrated production line from iron ores to the finished products. The company share price has been compounding at a tremendous rate as evidenced by the share price that it has quadrupled in a period of 5 years.In the coming year it is commencing to sell some of its iron ore which will increased its revenue base.According to OST report, the future is indeed rosy.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Tuesday, May 23, 2006 - 10:27 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I have bought more of OST today as I believe that it has been oversold.Those that got out of OST has not given a thought that OST is having an extra source of revenue in the later part of the year in that it is going to export iron ore from its mine.This will be extra income and add to the bottom line.I also expect OST to declare an increase in dividends. With yearly double digit growth every year OST has turned out to be a trade and a half for me.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 12:35 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



In the weekly chart OST hits the support line and bounce back immediately. In the daily chart, when OST reaches the lower end of the Bollinger Band on the 5th december, it went on to an old time high.I hope it will do the same this time.It is likely today's closing may signal yesterday's morning sun.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Wednesday, May 24, 2006 - 10:30 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ingot,

How does OST look in one of your rainbow charts?


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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msparks
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Thursday, May 25, 2006 - 10:25 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi PL
If they run there business outlets like smorgans, sell every single share you own in ost.Does smorgans own metalcorp ?
Never have i seen such an incompotant bunch of people trying to sell stuff in my life,a computer system that does not work,3 days and 3 visits for at least half an hour minimum and the #$%&^@$ order has still not even been sent.Unbelievable.

heres a chart that would see Hilarius shakin in his boots



smorgans sucks bigtime



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peterloh
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Friday, May 26, 2006 - 10:45 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



msparks,

Thank you for the rainbow chart of OST, it somehow confirms my entry at $3.72. Wish I had placed an order around round $3.65 I would have caught some of the stop loss of traders trying to get out.
OST and SSX are a duopoly of flat steel.I think the later is more fragmented in their operations coming from a family business, fix it as the needs arises, whereas the former is more on structural changes if required.Sorry that you have bad experience with SSX as a business operations.The share price of both tells a story.OSt has many more arrows to their bows and the future is very much brighter.I used to have both SSX and OST when the government first introduced the First Home Grant. Nowadays, I will keep the ones I think will have the most potential. Personally I think SSX needs a big operations review, because of the way they grow their business through acquisition.

Note:We are moving office today and the next few days, and I may not have access to the adsl until Tuesday or Wednesday.Will try to catchup when ever I can.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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hershy
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With you on this one Peter. To diversify is good but one has to continually review performances. I have been holding SSX in my Mother's portfolio for quite a long time and lately have been looking for an exit. I don't believe now is the time as we are approaching the supporting trendline.


...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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peterloh
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Sunday, May 28, 2006 - 09:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The rainbow charts gives an effective presentation of OST.I got in May 2005 after selling out near the top. Earlier this year another window opened for OST and I just traded it short term. I believe the current situation presents another opportunity for entry which I bought in at $3.72.
I believe if the FA is good and a lower entry price on retracement is a less riskier proposition then to buy on the break out. Of course the shorter termers don't agree with this strategy.
Anyway any means of achieving an objective is positive , I have no quarrel with that, it is just if you can master a share you can get a bigger cut.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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ingot54
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Monday, May 29, 2006 - 04:58 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm not too sure about the stability of OST.

While there have been some external circumstances accounting for the rough ride, I'm hoping OST can develop a stable trend.

ost
ost_1


Keep Smiling

Trading style :CFD's predominantly long term.

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tony_m
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Monday, May 29, 2006 - 06:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter,
my view of OST from weekly charts is that it is in a pretty weak trend compared with what else is on offer. Some observations..

1. Weekly TMF shows oscillation around zero - caught between accumulation and distribution.
2. Fast (red) MA band compressed over longish period fairly weak, not a strong trend at all and slow (blue)MA band drooping, lack of underlying long term support.
3. ADX/DI weakish, confirms weakish trend.
4. ROAR around 36%, acceptable but better hunting elsewhere.

Tony_M

ost

(Message edited by tony_m on May 29, 2006)


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tony_m
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In hindsight thought I had better include a example of a stronger trend, say WOR.

See fast (red) MA band is not compressed and slow (blue) MA is rising and spreading, a good sign. ADX/DI is strong and TMF shows solid accumulation. ROAR (rate of annual return) is around 113% v OST 36%.

Regards Tony

WOR


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peterloh
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Tuesday, May 30, 2006 - 12:51 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivan/Tony,

Interesting aspects from the point of technical analysis "chasing the returns" which I appreciate.
Like to share with you my thinking which is more in line with logical reasoning/pre-empting what will happen rather than what has happened.It is like buying a share after that it has gone up, instead of before it has gone up.

Using my reasoning,WOR has gone up considerably. If I have bought WOR earlier I would hold on to it.Will I buy more WOR that is debatable because,WOR may have already factor in all the contracts that it has on hand from many of the mining companies.I have to factor in the future growth rate from here on if I were to buy WOR at this level.Will WOR be able to sustain this rate of return in the future, I am not so sure.Will WOR continue to grow, that I am sure.

In selecting OST as a good buy, I am not looking at the past but the future as well.OST has consistently return double digit growth rate.Last year it has build a new furnace which has teething problems and as a result not able to maximise its production ability.Once this is iron out, OST will have a higher return from this area. OST has also a new product coming online which there were not doing, that is the export of iron ore. The ability to do well in a depressed enviroment and the ability to increase price of its product without affecting its demand is an advantage.Being fully integrated in its production line is also another advantage.The other party of the duopoly has to rely on the purchase of recycled iron in its production is not a threat to OST in the market share.I can see OST's share price being rerated in the very near future.Currently OST is a supplier of iron ore to BSL.

So in selecting OST, I rely on its past track record, and its future ability to earn additional income. Having said that it is still a boring steel mill that has the ability to perform above average because of its management capability and its natural advantages.

The recent retracement of its share price is an opportunity to get into OST before its share price going up.



-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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OST will be exporting iron ore through BHP next financial year. With price rise of 19% to iron ore adds to the bottom line, we may see the SP of OST being rerated soon.Is there more to come from this boring steel mill?





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peter1
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Hi Peter. You longer term traders sure have a lot of patience. This stock has gone nowhere since Oct 05. There have been a few excursions from the mean but little joy overall. I would like to highlight two points, of which you are aware I'm sure.

Throughout the ASX correction, OST has held steady. This indicates many other long term investors are also accumulating this stock on the dips, just as you have mentioned. The OBV and the TMF indicators should illustrate this aspect nicely.

I last traded this stock in early May 06 hoping the breakout would continue, alas it didn't and the trade was aborted. I have very recently started another and the TA conditions for this trade are very similar to May only better. The TA characteristic that I am referring to is the divergence that can be clearly seen in your lower chart.

I have posted another chart showing the two examples of divergence and the trigger lines used for the breakout trades.

ost


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peterloh
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peter1,

I posted that I bought in at $2.45 May last year, with 15c franking dividends, plus $1.50 profit, is not too bad.I don't have that many shares.I bought more on the dip at $3.72 because I think I can made another 10-12% profit plus 7.5c dividends again.All this plus a 50% CGT discount.You have enter into OST, what is your expectation?I do expect OST to be rerated because of their new cheaper cost of production, processed iron ore plus they are going to export iron ore through BHP which will flow through to the bottom line. HERE is fundamental reason for the increase.I spoke to some industrial experts and ask of their opinion on OST, pleasant surprise for me.

Regards,


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peter1
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Peterloh.
I posted in admiration of your patience and professionalism in staying with your plan and working towards your financial goals. OST has weathered the current ASX correction very well and yes I agree that it is due to the strength/veracity of the underlying fundamentals. It was also the coincidence that I had started a trade in OST for vastly different reasons.

I imagine that it would have been quite difficult to be patient during this market correction. Even if the fundamentals have not altered there is no doubt that most people's investments have decreased by about 10%. I understand that these corrections are good buying opportunities for those with a longer term outlook. With the market charging up the last few years I would assume that most long termers would be fully invested and would need new capital to buy additional parcels. I remember that you have realised some profits in order to take advantage of the corrections when they occur. I think you called it re-weighting within your portfolio.

My trading is biased to the short term with an average holding time of 19days. It is this stark contrast to your trading style that intrigues me. There is little doubt in my mind that my trading performance will improve considerably if I can modify my trading to hold my positions for longer. My initial trading modification concerns the issue of pyramiding. I will add to every position that is proven correct. This emphasis will maintain my attention to the additional trading setups rather than exiting early to realise the short term profit. I will risk this early profit to add to my total position. I am confident that this will ensure that I remain in a bigger trend for longer.

I am not overly concerned with the fundamentals, but the underlying strength (divergence) in the OST chart is hard to miss. My expectations of the OST trade are based on my trading stats. My first price target is the all time high, 4.27. I have a 45% chance of getting at least 2/1 for my money in this initial move. If the up trend materialises and strengthens, I will be prepared to pyramid to earn more. If price remains in this current channel then I will wait for another opportunity and trade other stocks.

We wouldn't have a healthy market without the diversity of opinions and trading styles. Oh, let's not forget the gamblers.


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peterloh
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peter1,

The latest to up grade OST as a buy is JB Were. A couple of weeks a go we had Shaw Broking.More research houses and broking firm are having another look at this one now and I am please to say the results are mainly positive.

Spider's "rubber band effect" is very relevant to good shares. As the retracement is applicable to the general market, it is no cause for concern,for when the market start to show a recovery, these are the first to recover.The retracement is not cause by the company's own weakness.There is a tendency for the SP to move above the MA fairly quickly after the retracement.

A way to limit our losses is when there is any bad news is accompanied by big corrections in the SP, it is better to get out when in doubt.

Normally a short term trader buys on the breakout, however a longer term trader will rather buy on the retracement after a breakout.My approach is if we have to buy and if we anticipate that the SP is going to move up, then why don't we try to get them at the lowest possible price, thus the difference in approach between a short term trader and a longer term one.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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peter 1,

The Bull climbs a wall of worries. Do you or any one has any idea what the trading halt is about? Is the announcement going to be positive or negative?

Likely Scenario (positives)
- signing a pact of co-operation with BHP, its former owner
- a proposal for merger from BSL, both were caste off from BHP, what has ACCC got to say about it, in terms of products and markets,they are different, but made sense to merge for synergies
- sign a major agreement to supply iron ore to a major steel mill in china
- signing or selling a subsidiary or increasing or reducing a holding in a company or subsidiary
- signed new contract that is worth a lot of money to supply steel or iron ore (local)
Contractor of the furnace agree to pay compensation for delay in completion of furnace or breakdown

the last 4 is the most likely

Negatives
Furnace - break down again unlikely/ did not hear of it/ under control
Furnace - have to repay cost over run to contractor for furnace
iron ore - not up to standard
agreement with major buyer cancelled
contract (major) cancelled or delay to pay compensation
major debtors in default

If we look at charts action, it is more positive than negatives? Any other scenarios?

Maybe HC will have views we haven't thought about on the negatives side, if so I am interested. Anyone else has any thoughts?


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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grannie
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Hi Peterloh

SSX on a trading halt at the same time, 10.23am, so maybe a merger here?

I always find your posts interesting,
thanks for sharing

grannie


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stickman
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OneSteel proposes takeover of Smorgon Steel
11:31, Monday, 26 June 2006

Sydney - Monday - June 26: (RWE Aust Business News) - OneSteel
Ltd (ASX:-OST) and Smorgon Steel Group Ltd (ASX:SSX) have reached an
agreement under which OneSteel will acquire all of the shares in Smorgon
Steel via a scheme of arrangement.
Under the agreement shareholders of Smorgon Steel will receive a
fixed value of $1.76 per share, providing that OneSteel's volume weighted
average price during the 10 trading days immediately following the
effective date of the scheme of arrangement is between $3.75 and $4.15.
This will comprise nine OneSteel shares and between $1.37 and
$4.97 cash for every 22 Smorgon shares held.
On a per-share basis, this equates to approximately 0.4091
OneSteel shares and between 6.2c and 22.6c cash for every Smorgon Steel
share.
Smorgon Steel shareholders will also be entitled to receive the
company's final dividend of 5c per share, fully franked, for the year to
June 30.
The implied offer price values Smorgon Steel's equity at
approximately $1.6 billion and its enterprise value at around $2.7
billion.
The combined business is expected to generate net EBITDA
synergies of $70 million per annum by the end of the third full year
following completion.
Directors of Smorgon Steel have unanimously recommended the
proposed transaction, in the absence of a superior proposal.
OneSteel said that following the transaction it will become the
pre-eminent domestic manufacturer and distributor of steel and metal
products.
Shares of both OneSteel and Smorgon Steel were placed in a
trading halt prior to the start of trading today, and are expected to
resume trading at 11:40 Sydney time. They closed on Friday at $3.95 and
$1.34 respectively.
ENDS





Trade to Learn, Not to Earn.


when you lose,don't lose the lesson.

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dug
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Well that'll be real interesting for you,Peter.
How will it go to this scenario?
The Company taking over [ie OST] traditionally gets sold Down because the perception is They paid too much.
The Company being Taken Over[ie Smorgons] goes up because,well arbitrage may come to Play.
Whole lot of Do Gooders like Competition Watchdadogs start baying.
Smorgons is some kind of a Family Dynasty Deal out of Victoria,isn't it?and didn't I read they were BIG on Gov't Subsidies?Could be a lot of dubious Valuation 'tricks' in Smorgons for Gossip Journos to "Do their stuff" with?

Anyhow,I'm looking forward to your responses Peter as this Big Deal plays out.
cheers,
jr


Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

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peterloh
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grannie,dug,stickman

Thank you for keeping me in touch as I just came out of a meeting. I thought the announcement would be on wednesday morning, therefore I was surprised that the trading halt was lifted.

Yes, there would be issues with the ACCC as dug mentioned. Sometimes it is difficult to understand where they are coming from with the issues.

SSX is a very fragmented company and from many sources has not been well run operationally. Growth wise they have done fairly well in acquisition, in fact this was the main basis of their present and previous growth.It used to be a family business that went public.It is currently going into recycled metal more than anything else.
SSX will benefit the most from this due, as currently they are a distant second to OST in operations, distribution, financially and administration and management wise.Having said that, they are also some smart people that are running the company.SSX is the 4th largest customer of OST for their steel product.SSX is more dependent on OST than OST is to SSX.

OST is a very well run fully vertical integrated company.It has a yearly double digit growth and keep on reviewing their performance structurally.OST, will also benefit from this acquisition because a lot of synergies can be derived especially from a not very well run fragmented company and save a lot of wasted resources.It is no point to reinvent the wheels.OST can used its strength financially, management, operations , distribution outlet to improve SSX's operations and in doing so, cut costs.It is no point duplication resources, assets - under utilised etc.OST can also grow SSX's recycled metal business if they wish to grow this line of business with their financial backing.

Consumers will also benefit because cost will be kept under control because of a more efficient operations.Scale will also increase in efficiency.

To allay ACCC concern, OST will have to divest some of their business. I haven't read the announcement, therefore not in a position to comment further on this aspect.

It is good for Australia, because the competition or threat is going to come more from overseas import than amongst the steel makers themselves.

OST's export of iron ore will really bring the beacon home for OST shareholders.The acquisition of SSX is getting rid of the ant bite and to improve the industry well being. It is a way for SSX to maximise their profit now rather then drifting purposeless as they don't have the financial capability, distribution force or operation strength to compete with OST or benefit from scale.SSX does need to have a big structural change to improve which they are not capable on their own.

My analysis is probably biased, so do your own research. I am interested in getting other views.This scenario was the least expected and is a feather to the cap of both OST and SSX's board.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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peter1,

Good call for your short term trade on OST. If on CFDs, it is almost 40% there already,if to double your money, working on 10:1 leverage.I can understand the fast money, but it works both ways, doesn't it?

My surprise is, how they can keep things so quiet, that the price of SSX did not move that much before the announcement.Or the price of OST did not go down.

IT is a plus, plus for both OST and SSX and a stronger OST to stand up to foreign competition.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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I have read SSX's presentation.Personally I would have like OST to raise more cash to finance the take over of SSX, in doing so reduce the number of OST shares. As it is SSX has the better benefit of the deal. OST too has benefited but the deal increased the number of OST shares in the market. I thought SSX has a very good deal.I hope there is no unpleasant surprise from SSX and OST should have due diligence before the takeover.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dug
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Does seem a lot for a Fancy Scrap Metal Dealer,Peter.
Your problem will be the Time to do this deal.Like how long til the synergy earnings come thru?Mightn't even be in First Half 2007.This may have OST chanelled for a while longer yet.
Six of one,half a dozen of the Other regarding Registry Dilution instead of Borrowing.A billion dollars plus with possible rising interest rates isn't too good a look as well but,yes,the dilution[share#increase] will tend to channel price too.

When I looked at Course of Sales seemed Small Time buying mostly[under$30k]There'd be short sellers hitting,wouldn't there?Even the Announcement had a $3.75 low price range in OST.That's 7% away and with leverage,that's?well worthwhile anyhow.

As I said,Peter this is going to be entertaining watching it play out.Don't know that I envy you holding OST.The Taker-Overer usually gets 'strung-out' in these situations.Lucky for you,OST is such a fine company properly managed etc.,hey Peter?

Happy Trading.


Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

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peterloh
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dug,

Agreed with many things you said. Currently optimistic with OST, at least for the immediate and longer term.Other times is at the ebbs and flows of the stock market and the whims and fancies of the day traders. Personally OST is a friend of the investor.

Best Wishes


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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dug,

I would have preferred that OST had their first shipment of iron ore and the announcement of their annual results first.SSX look cheap at this level but one cannot ask for a premium for a company that is not that slick.OST has not retraced that much, yet the potential of OST itself is not fully factored into the price of OST either.Having said that, it is better to buy a company that is not that well run, so that it is coming off from a low base than one that ask for a high price and not many improvement can be put into it.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dug
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As an Observer,I'm not that keen on this Iron Ore Export deal,PLoh.I see your point of Cash Flow Positive but I think it could be a Distraction to Core Activity.

Vertical Intergration,they're calling it but it's a bit "Dusty" for a Steel Maker to be overloading some Ore on d'side.
Stick this with running a Scrap Metal Yard that cost a hot Billion PLUS!!?!?well,BigBite,hey pete?
Like it wouldn't All basically be Being Done to Top Notch a Pack o'Directors.Golden Parachute for SSX 'coves' for a start?

Will be Fascinating Resolving[eventually!]Plot in this TakeOver Deal.
cheers.


Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

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peter1
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Very interesting, but for the cfd player (me!), very risky. The politics/ bargaining/ACCC and hasty forecasts by all the corporate analysts and journalists will increase the volatility during the takeover process. I like volatility but not when it is due to news or publicity. I have a global cfd trading rule that states to close any position involved in a takeover proposal. So I have exited the OST trade at 4.10. I will not trade in OST until the issue is resolved. It has been a quick, 3 day trade with 1.5R profit.

On the other hand, there are some cfd players who live for this stuff. They stayed glued to the news screen just waiting for any opportunity like this. Peter, you are right concerning the spread opportunity, sell OST, buy SSX. If there are higher offers for SSX, or concerns about the bid, the spread becomes very profitable.


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hershy
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Monday, June 26, 2006 - 09:14 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



So why did Blue Steel also go up today ?
I hold all three and am selling them all tomorrow.


...and another Bloody Mary, por favor !

http://members.optusnet.com.au/~hershy/

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peterloh
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There is a lot more juice in the orange yet.It depends on how one view the market in the short term, the medium term and the long term.In the short term, I expect OST will hold or increase in share price.I base this on OST increasing its capitalisation, thus its indexation in the All Ords/ASX 100 will increase in weighting.Index funds will automatically increase its weighting in OST, whilst SSX holders will have a more liquid and bigger capitalised share to hold.Also with the removal of SSX from the market the choice is only between BSL and OST.If OST has to divest the distribution business of some of SSX's business, it will have some of its money back and to be applied elsewhere, maintain a higher dividend or use it for future acquisition or reduce debts in the whole company.Some long term stale holders will get out. For long term investors,my belief is OST SP will reach new high before the end of the calender year.It will have size and a bigger economic bite of the market than usual.
As for the selling of iron ore to earn an extra buck, I wouldn't turn a gift horse away.THe fact that OST has also increase in SP after the announcement is an endorsement by its existing shareholders and buyers that believe in OST's future.For the time being and to the end of JULY, I expect OST's SP will maintain at this level or even move up because of new money coming into the market from superannuation.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dug
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Tuesday, June 27, 2006 - 03:47 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Takeover seems to be progressing in an Orderley Manner,PLoh.
Newspapers today didn't forsee too many problems,WatchDog-wise.
Speaking of dogs,Smorgon's sure seems to Qualify!
Like I read they did 5% Capital Return in their Trading Lifetime,Seems they floated years ago at MORE than they're being taken over for!!

I reckon you can anticipate a few skeletons coming out of SSX due diligence,Mr Loh and it'll be real interesting watching how long before d'Smorgons start Unloading their OST shares.In SSX they had d'Rep for swamping any developing Momentum,Share Price-wise.
At 35%SSX are they 10% in OST now??maybe I'm wrong there but these Inherited Wealth Third Generation types bear watching!!

What about the wonder patented beam of SSX's,Peter?another Bonus?
Anyway,early days.
cheers,
jr


Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

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peterloh
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Look like more positives,wonder beam, scrap recycled metal, overseas positioning, also getting rid of duplication of labour, administration, land use etc. Look like media, fund managers gave it a thumbs up. I know about SSX ,I dumped it and put it all into OST as it is better to be in the best and not another one just for the sake of diversification. I am sure SSX has many positives as well, it is just because of their background, and the way they grew on a piece meal basis.Better buy an underperformed company where you can improve on it, then pay a lot for one where you cannot add value.I am sure they would be better in the long term.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Does anyone know what the situation would be if the SP of OST is over $4.15, does it mean that the pay out for SSX shares would be less, in terms of cash or shares in exchange for SSX shares?


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dug
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Saturday, July 01, 2006 - 02:59 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I think or remember that it's Higher Cash for lower share price[around]$3.70 and lower cash for $4.10 ish.
It's NOT No cash if OST price is above say that 410,no matter what a cash settle is involved to be paid to d'Smorgons.

There's an excellent Weekend Financial Review story on the Smorgon side of this deal.As well Mr Loh there's a good one on Tax Agri Businesses like GUNNS so maybe there's some Sunday reading in Brisbane Waters' Retreat there for you.

You shouldn't have backed Punch getting that Judy back,though,Peter.I realise you were just being polite and being Nice but when Puncho Capo shows no signs of controlling Himself why take his word on the return of a prodigal Bozo ann such a Judy?


Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

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peterloh
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Tuesday, July 11, 2006 - 04:44 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter 1,

I have sold my 35000 OST bought in May on the 30th June for about 10% return.I have taken what you said into consideration. With this money, I put it into PBG at an average price of $2.19. You are probably right when you said that during these few months of restructuring, OST price will probably consolidate. I am still having my original holding bought im May 2005 which I will dispose when I think the time is right.

I have found divergence in a share selected by tryhay as his short term picked.I am posting here and I hope you can run it over with a critical eye, whether this is one that you may consider as a short term trade.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peter1
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Wednesday, July 12, 2006 - 07:55 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sorry for the delay Peter. I don't usually look at the fundamental thread unless you have posted. There have been many recent occurences of bullish divergence on the ASX. So many, that all of my recent trades have started with this as evidence that the downward movement has slowed and prices may start to recover. I notice that your pick PBG has this divergence also. Nothing like a takeover rumour to get prices jumping. A good start to your trade.

I would suggest that you use the STO oscillator to identify divergence, my post using the MACD is wrong. I would also suggest using longer time periods than the defaults. Try 14d or 21d with a lag of 3d. This is much more reliable than 5,3.

You have selected a tricky chart (SEN) as an example. This stock needs volume before prices move. There was a slight bullish divergence on the chart prior to the last rally. This was an early warning of a possible rally. The TMF shows a sharp move through zero, confirming some buying interest. There was a slight delay before other buyers (day traders) got interested. SEN seems to attract the day traders and when they participate the volume increases quickly. This is not a stock that you want to be caught holding if you are a short term trader. The volume has disappeared as quickly as it appeared. Prices will probably drift lower until there is further news to attract interest again.

sen


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peterloh
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Wednesday, July 12, 2006 - 11:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Fair call on SEN, Peter1 and thank you for giving your comments.

Since you comment on PBG I have an observation on the trade of PBG.There are big lots of selling at $2.30 and $2.31 for yesterday and today.These are all absorbed although market depth did not show up the buyers.The volume was over 6 million shares yesterday.PBG may still surprise on the upside,3.6 million traded around the same price today.It may still consolidate to the end of the week before moving up again.

Operation wise, I have no doubt management is on the right track.Buying up its competitor and diversifying into bed wares will enhance its operations as I believe competition is not so fierce in this area.The margin is also better and sales value is higher.There is more an upside risk here.

I also own a few of JST shares which share prices were also drifting before a positive announcement saw its share price went up 20% immediately and since then went up another 15-20%.This may still happen to PBG and MRL. It is on the cards that their operations have improved and will improve further.MRL is more like NONI B in its operations and despite the current SP weakness I am incline that it will report a much improved result.NONI B reported a very improved result despite an adverse market.I am likely to pick a few more once the price stabilise which wont be far off and it will tend to move up again.

I have been using the RSI indicator and it looks like the STO gives an earlier warning.

I came from an accounting and finance background, so it is very difficult for me to ignore fundamentals.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dug
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Thursday, July 13, 2006 - 11:24 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



"MRL is more like NoniB in it's operation"

That's a Bold statement,Peter Loh.Comparing a discount rag trader like MRL with a Family based Quality Haberdashery such as NoniB.If it was Anyone other than you,Peter this could be seen as Ramping!!
I see the only similarity between NoniB and Millers is they both sell womens'clothes but they certainly are not anywhere in the Same Market.JST may be,somewhat comparable but never MRL.

Another big volume day for PBG,today I see.It will be interesting to see the Sheridan sheet impact on PBG.You hold such hope in that,Peter.
You are aware that THEY don't sell sheet sets as such anymore?Used to be you bought a fitted sheet and a top sheet in a set,right?Now they only sell fitted sheet and a Doona cover.Seems the Modern World don't use top sheets no more[according to my home-maker,d'wife]
This would affect the Gross Take,lessen it because you're not selling two sheets but only one.Also the general populace,especially the Young are buying Luxury Sheets,Satin etc.Do Sheridan have a Line of "Top Class" stuff,Peter or are they just "Miller-ing" out their bed ware?

Anyway,nearly reporting time so soon all will be revealed.

Happy Trading.
jr


Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

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peterloh
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Thursday, July 13, 2006 - 12:09 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



dug,

Lets get back to the right thread and I will respond there.

regards


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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OST will only get better. Having said that, I have exited my original holding bought in May last year, a 61.98% gain plus the 15c franked dividends that come with it which add up to 70%.As I use margin lending, my own capital only made up of 35% of what I put in and I have to pay about 8.15% interest on the marginal loan.OST is likely to pass the $5 mark in a years time but meanwhile there are various obstacles that it has to deal with first, that is the ACCC and to assimilate SSX.This will probably takes it to the end of the year. Meanwhile OST will continue to be volatile. I would have kept OST longer but for the acquisition.During this waiting period, I will have to get 10% return for my money.Meanwhile I have to look for new angel that has fallen over and on the way back.This recent volatility is also an opportunity.Is there any fallen angel worth looking at? One condition is the angel must be on the come back trail or at least there must be signs that it is on the way back.

Cheers


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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wadda
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Monday, January 29, 2007 - 08:35 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Old thread...OST still established in a nice trend channel...and ready for the next up leg? A strong candle respecting the bottom of the trend channel today on increasing volume. Resistance target of $4.80, channel target approx $4.90.



cheers,

wadda


"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein

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wadda
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Behaving so far...



wadda


"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein

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dennis_menace
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Hi,

I thought it was time to surface this thread again. As you will see from looking at the weekly chart of OST that it appears to be on the move again (upwards) with an ascending triangle forming, OBV improving, MACD threatening to break upwards and volume increasing.




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sway
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dennis
OST still looks reasonably good from a Weinstein point of view. My only reservation is the possibility of a head&shoulders forming. If we start heading back to $6.00ish I would be worried, but a continuation above $7.20 into blue sky would ensure the trend keeps going. Rising volume would give more confidence to the breakout. The RS also seems to be respecting it's trend line nicely.
I don't hold, but it is on my close watch list.
Sway


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sway
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Forgot to attach a chart.
OST
Sway


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dennis_menace
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sway wrote on Saturday, February 09, 2008 - 10:30 am:

OST still looks reasonably good from a Weinstein point of view




Hi Sway,

Please find attached a weekly chart showing the Weinstein MA's as well as the RSI.

Cheers
DTM




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sway
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DTM

I'm glad you raised RS, because Weinstein's RS is a completely different indicator to RSI (eg http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/relative_strength_index.htm) Very few people on this forum seem to have grasped this. I don't have anything against RSI, but it has NOTHING to do with Weinstein's RS. Weinstein's RS is the change of a stock's price divided by the change in the market's main index (eg XAO or XJO etc) over a given period of time. You can display RS in IC using the "Price Ratio" indicator, selecting eg XAO as the denominator in the ratio. If the stock is going up faster than the index over a given time period, then the RS will be positive. Weinstein looks for a change from a negative slope of the RS line to a positive slope as one of his conditions to be considered before going long.

Cheers
Sway


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peterloh
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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 04:02 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It has been a long time since I have posted on OST. It has been a great money spinner for me for many years. Its the big bikkies.OST has broken out from a solid 6 months consolidation and it looks like blue sky again. Meanwhile it has got away from me, not that I am complaining as I have a few OST shares. I have sold out of the initial $1.50 at $3 and now have a few bought at $2.70.It is going to be the second time now, looking FOR the opportune time for a TOP UP.

One of these days, sway will have to show me the RS as I am hopeless on the computer and I will also have to learn how to set the indicators up.Sway knows the ins and outs of Weinstein's application.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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sway
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Monday, January 11, 2010 - 05:04 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peterloh

Please see my Weinstein IC project attached

mac/unknownweinstein
dayweinsteinoz.ini (72.6 k)


You need to save the file to your PC (right click the icon>save to>desktop). Then import it into IC (File>Import Files>desktop>OK). The project will then appear in your project list. If you have any problems, drop me a line.

This project uses the IC Price Ratio function, which is what Weinstein calls Relative Strength.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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peterloh
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Tuesday, January 12, 2010 - 09:37 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thank you, sway. I shall be contacting you soon as soon as I get down to working a few things out.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Friday, April 09, 2010 - 06:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



She is doing fine, thank you. What a fine fallen angel!!




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 3677
Registered: 03-2003

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Friday, May 14, 2010 - 05:37 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Having sold out of OST not too long ago, being an optimist, I thought it is time to get back on. May is normally a month where OST hits a cyclical low and MACD is starting to move up.I have been trading OST for many years now and it has been a lucky one for me. I hope it continues from here.

In the 3 years weekly chart, OST is trending in a channel and it looks like a low risk entry from here.DYOR before you trade OST.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Friday, May 14, 2010 - 05:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



OST SP came down to support level again as it has to close down its Whylla's furnace for repair.The SP came tumbling down the day, that was announced.It look like the furnace is about to be fired up again. I hope the SP will go up with the new announcement.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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msparks
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Username: msparks

Post Number: 1231
Registered: 10-2004

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Monday, May 24, 2010 - 08:44 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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peterloh
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Post Number: 3724
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Tuesday, June 22, 2010 - 01:10 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Wyhalla furnace has been repaired. Lets hope OST returns to the channel and resume its NE direction.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Post Number: 3733
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 02:17 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



One of the companies badly affected by the proposed PRST is OST. The share price came tumbling down from a recent high of about $3.45. Though the super tax has now been replaced by the so called rental tax, OST is still caught in no man's land. Martin Ferguson, minister for resources encouraged OST to come forward to discuss their particular situation in view that OST is placed in SA, in Whyalla where they employed many locals.Unless this is resolved, OST predicament will persist. Many smaller resource companies have recovered a little, OST has not done anything to date. OST also mine for iron ore in SA and not the Pilbarra region in WA.

MACD histogram of OST is turning up, a leading indicator that the SP may improve. Perhaps we have to show a little patience from here.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dennis_menace
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Username: dennis_menace

Post Number: 1295
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 07:11 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The Australian sharemarket has suffered its worst weekly fall in just over nine months, with both major indexes down more than four per cent at the close.

One steel is one of those stocks that didn't have a good week.




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dennis_menace
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Post Number: 1298
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Friday, March 11, 2011 - 07:42 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



But then it's not all doom and gloom!!

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/steel-strugglers-are-worth-another-chan ce/story-e6frg8zx-1226019354879


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msparks
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Monday, March 14, 2011 - 05:52 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Must be getting too cheap ?

Is that possible ?



BSL must be too cheap too !








"I have my own unique system "
"I manage to lose money in bull and in bear markets "

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dennis_menace
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Post Number: 1392
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Wednesday, November 02, 2011 - 10:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



With the benefit of the "Holy Grail" Msparks YES. It closed today at 98.5c on nearly 27M shares traded. Not this cheap since 2001....

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