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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Early Stage 2 Weinstein's candidate

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » Early Stage 2 Weinstein's candidate

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Archive through June 13, 2015peterloh50 13-Jun-15  07:29 pm
         

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peterloh
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In this thread, we are more concern with the major trend. Although there are many patterns when a stock is trending up, we need not take our eyes off the actual purpose " ride the trend, till it bends", the others , I just regard them as noise.

Where are the Weinstein's followers? We need candidates.


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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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leoincredible
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Some more


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leoincredible
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leoincredible
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What sectors are you thinking will continue to outperform?

Telecom
Health
IT
Financials

Any experience with ETFs?

Leo


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leoincredible
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Hi peterloh

Please continue, I'm a big fan of Weinstein's Breakout model.

Some of the stocks from my screens. Breakouts


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peterloh
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Where did that come from? Worms out of the wood work, excellent contribution and excellent illustration, leoincredible. I am almost resigned to talking to myself. It is not so lonely now. I am surprised that they are no followers of Weinstein that are willing to come forward.

You are correct in nailing the best sector first. Currently I am trying for the top 200, that doesn't mean that we should ignore the rest. It will be good to catch them when they initially breakout, that's when we get the most out of them. You can see I am on healthcare represented by FPH and REG and QBE in financials. What are your thoughts?

You have some guidelines for scanning them, those early breakouts?

Cheers

Pete


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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I just noticed this is your first post, well come, Leo. If you like to tell us a bit about yourself that would be even better so that we will at least know who we are writing to.
How do you come across Weinstein? How long have you been following his breakout model etc? We all look forward to your contribution, Leo.

Cheers

Pete


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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leoincredible
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Some thoughts

Great breakout on price and RSI, but muted volume expansion.

Recently broke 30w MA, but MA still moving positive. Showing positive RSI divergence compared to stock price = the market is falling faster than REG. May pick up after market corrections.
Below 4.80 it enters the old support and resistance zones.. Stage 4.

You would have been doing this longer than I. What do you think?


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leoincredible
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The question is that happens next... too late to enter?

Volume good, but RSI poor.

30w MA is flat.

?


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leoincredible
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Price, RSI and Volume breakout = yes

Overhead resistance = yes

Has convincing fundamentals... Dollar, restructuring, no natural disasters ... yet... lol

Leo


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leoincredible
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Hi Peter,
Yes my first post at Incredible charts!
I have been a using IC since about 2006 when I was an undergraduate student and played around with Weinstein Models, but never with large amounts of money.

Post 2009 I worked in Pathology and got so busy that I didnt have time for the markets. I'm doing postgraduate study now and will dedicate some time on the weekends to my old love of stock picking.

My Methods is pretty un-glamorous and at times tedious: I do a sector scan for out-performing sectors, i.e. Health Care and then scroll through the sector via IC, looking for volume, breaking from base and positive RSI.

The problem is that I end up with 20-30 candidates and then cant make a decision for my limited resources haha.

Im 29, and have a few more years ahead of me, so I think I can refine the process a bit



I'll try and check the forum every weekend.


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leoincredible
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Some of my comments:

Been in stage 2 since early 2013 respecting the 30 week MA

Dec 2014 another breakout, with expanding volume.
Since then it seems to have become popular.

May 2015 broke 30W MA, and possibly moving into stage 3.
30 Week MA is still positive. Could be a continuation of the general trend.

Depends where you bought it. If it moves below 5.50 would signal a stage 3/4 stock.

What do you think..?


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leoincredible
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Comments please

Leo


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peterloh
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Hi Leo,

Thank you for your contribution. We have also established threads for individual shares. If that is the situation, can you post your comments on their individual threads?. Currently we have threads, for QBE,REG and FPH which you have commented on.
Your comments on some of the other shares are good and you can open individual threads for them.
Are you able to spot new breakouts for Weinstein's strategies purpose? We can monitor their developments.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Please refer to QBE threads for further comments.


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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Most of the candidates put forward by you looks okay, Leo. Please bear in mind, during this period of volatility, many stage 2 shares appear to be consolidating in stage 3.Either they collapse in a heap that is going into stage 4 or they continue as stage 2 taking a pause. It shouldn't be too long now for us to find out as all my candidates have good credentials and well researched. They all appear to be holding their own currently.

Look for my comments on REG in its own thread, Leo.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Leo, QBE and NUF are early stage 2 development of the Weinstein's breakout models. They are the best current candidates of mine as they are in the early stages.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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BUX is a share coming out of stage 1 into stage 2 under the Weinstein's breakout strategy model. As this is speculative share I have refrain from posting it under the long term, however it qualifies under Weinstein. The SP established a base and then breakout after a year.



PS: I hold


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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Stage 2 Weinstein's illustration.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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What a great thread!

Looks like PRU rates a mention here:

The weekly chart: something about this chart pattern looks familiar [shows the classic Stan (the man) pattern IMO] - looks to have just broken out of the basing pattern and in the process of completing a retest.

weekly

The daily chart: confirms the breakout of the basing pattern and completing a retest.

Daily

The Ichi chart close up: shows PA is above the cloud, Tenkan has crossed below Kijun & the cloud has turned red in the future; if support doesn't hold then maybe it needs more time before buy-in


ichi


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Looks like BSM rates a mention here:

The weekly chart: something about this chart pattern looks familiar [shows the classic Stan (the man) pattern IMO] - looks to be close to breaking out of the basing pattern.

weekly

The daily chart: displays a bull flag, with PA heading towards the breakout point IMO.


Daily


Happy trading DYOR


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gdd3
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Hi Tryhay ... I'm interested in your "ICHI" charts; do you mind if I ask what parameters are you using as I see they aren't the I.C. 'default' ones as shown below.

Using your PRU Daily chart above ... here is the 'default' I.C. parameter "ICHI chart" which doesn't quite 'marry' to yours and hence slightly different summations are drawn.



Cheers
Dolphin


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peterloh
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My post 4227 dis illustrate Weinstein's stage 1 and breakout, early stage 2. I am posting the illustration again.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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PRU is certainly a breakout from Weinstein's stage 1 model and retesting of support, Tryhay. I do not know whether Weinstein includes a breakout from a down trend as early stage2, but it certainly qualify for me. I won't hesitate to include that in my trade, if it qualify the other factor, such as EMA 30weeks and RSI.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Hi Dolphin,

I introduced ICHI to my trading tool box as the final filter (in an effort to reduce stop outs).

I try to apply: <https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=12&post=181843>

and https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=12&post=182017

and this guy introduced me to the modified time-frame for ICHI <https://youtu.be/w73a3fwluem> (broken link search this "How I Trade With Ichimoku Charts Explained")

I have posted the comparison chart below and Item 1 is the same on both charts; Item 2 is different on mine (but I'm not too worried as the PA is above the cloud); item 3 is the same for both charts; and the other selection criteria put PRU at the top of the buy list on Monday.

Comparison chart:

comp

ICHI settings on daily chart:

ichi d


The MACD Histogram is also non standard: source is FX forum (forexfactory) and the guy is Phil something (search "4 Hour Strategy (MACD)")

I suggest you don't complicate the differences and use what you are comfortable with.

4 Hour Market Rhythm (MACD) Strategy By Phillip Nel video hyperlink is below

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=ruPS0MZYCaU

Hope you are able to enjoy the sunny afternoon (just back from a bike ride).


Happy trading DYOR


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gdd3
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Hi Tryhay ... been a bit pre-occupied with 'external' issues but wanted to thank you for your detailed response and info. I'll get back when things calm down a bit and I've had a good look at what you have presented.

Dolphin


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tryhay
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Yes Dolphin, I still work P/T and the externalities are tiresome.

There is a lot of content to digest in the post above, but implementing the concepts has vastly improved my trading!

I note the gold pull back is around the 38% Fib (off the May high). If this pullback in gold continues to the October high support ($1191) PRU may well keep pulling back; but the PRU chart technicals suggest it may well keep going higher (maybe because of special discrete fundamentals? not my forte!).

What complicates commodities related trading is the interest rates in the US which can be expected to impact USD direction. That is another chapter.... I'm also looking at PGM for a long trade.


The 4 Hr chart below shows possible support to monitor - IMO this chart suggests that price action needs to get going shortly....


4 Hr


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Hey Dolphin,

I was thinking last night we should move any general discussion off Peter's "Early Stage 2 Weinsteins candidate thread"; either to this one <
https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=8&post=182266 > or one that you create.

Apologise for somewhat off topic discussion Peter. More importantly what a great thread!


Happy trading DYOR


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peterloh
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PGM is similar with BUX, an early stage 2 candidate. PGM has been ranging between 3-5.5 over a 6 months period. It broke out after a 6 months period with volume. A substantial SH has taken a placement of 6 million at 6.5c.
After a retest of 5.5c, may well follow the path of BUX, heading upwards. Tryhay did mention his interest in PGM, it is definitely a Weinstein's candidate.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dydavo
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Indeed it is Peter. However, volumes during Stage 1 were very low. Let's see how they look in a week or two after it settles down.

There doesn't seem any shortage of Stage 2 Weinsteins in the mining sector now. Seems about 70% of them are in the rising 200 ema zone (with my criteria of > $100,000 average turnover per day).
I read today of a prediction of a 15 year commodities bull market now for us to enjoy! Let's see about that as well!


David
Momentum and swing trading for a living.

Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column are mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discussion is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Shares might be sold without notice. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Another Stan the Man candidate IMO:

Weekly chart: ticks most of the right boxes

weekly

(Message edited by tryhay on June 02, 2016)


Happy trading DYOR


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peterloh
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Dydavo, you are correct with your guidelines of > $100,000 a day as you will find many of the small ones are not very liquid. With so many candidates, one can afford to be selective, thus, although I have identify them, I have elect to stay out. I don't mind a bit more certainty in my trading effort.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Another Stan the Man candidate IMO:

Weekly chart: ticks most of the right boxes

weekly

broken out today - bought yesterday (If you can believe that!)


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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I was going to limit myself to posting only one of these per day, but I just can not help myself - there are so many of them out there for the taking...

Introduction -
Capral Limited (CAA) is engaged in the manufacturing, marketing and distribution of semi-fabricated aluminum products used in residential, commercial and industrial applications. CAA distributes its products via five distribution facilities, six regional centers and 12 metropolitan trade centers throughout Australia. CAA offers its products and services under the brands: Genesis; Amplimesh; Juralco; AGS; Artisan and Urban Plus.

Weekly chart for anyone interested, check out that downtrend since pre- 2000:

weekly


Happy trading DYOR


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peterloh
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Didn't know I picked up some PGM shares a couple of days ago, good surprise. They have all been sold this morning.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dydavo
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Nice work Peter!


David
Momentum and swing trading for a living.

Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column are mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It should not be taken as advice.Any share discussion is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Shares might be sold without notice. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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DCC looks like a Stan candidate IMO.

Introduction
DigitalX Ltd (DCC, formerly Digital CC Limited), is a Blockchain-based software solutions group disrupting the global payments industry. Its suite of software for institutions and consumers provides secure, fast and cost-effective money transfers worldwide. The Company's solutions also allow partners to use DigitalX’s technology to offer new financial products to the market. DigitalX is based in Boston and has offices in New Jersey and Australia

Operations - Airpocket
The Company’s most recent product, AirPocket, is designed to provide consumers with the ability to securely and cost-effectively send remittances in any currency, from anywhere, anytime, regardless of the transaction size.

Weekly chart for anyone interested, been downtrending since pre- 2010 & approaching the pointy end of the pennant/ flag:


Daily

No trigger to buy in yet....


Happy trading DYOR


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peterloh
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Tryhay, you are correct, Weinstein does have a rigid interpretation of stages. His classification is different from the Elliot waves or Fibonacci ratios. However he has make room for variations in the various stages, so that everyone has the same understanding. Basically, my understanding is he prefers stage 1 to be establishment phase in which the price varies in a range. This automatically eliminates the Vs or Ws, if there is no breakout. If we interpret it strictly according to Weinstein's requirements, then DCC is still in stage 1 phase.I can however see DCC as a interesting candidate in your chart analysis. As I am relatively new and still learning Weinstein's methods, others may have an opinion of what an early stage 2 candidate is.
PGM is an early stage 2 example according to my understanding.






-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Weekly chart of PGM, a very good selection of yours, Tryhay
as a Weinstein's Stage 2 candidate.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Hi Peter,

The problem implementing any model in the real world is by definition almost all of the real world examples do not closely follow the model as described. That does not mean the Weinstein model should not be used - because I believe that it assists in our understanding the real world chart/s by placing a framework over the top of real world examples.

I really don't mind how someone else implements his model: each point of view has some validity I'm sure. So is there value in attempting to implement the Stan Weinstein's model which employs a combination of proven techniques to identify breakouts from a trading range, to follow the progress of a trend and to identify appropriate exit points. To fully understand his model one would need to read his book Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets" (I haven't read it - but have checked out what others say about his system), but I am happy to use what I understand it to be and it mostly works for me in my trading system.

Thank you for posting (in Post Number: 4477) the weekly chart of PGM. For what it is worth attempting to relate colin's discussion of Weinstein's work (from here)
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/breakout_model.php to the real world chart (shown below) I think it more worthwhile to post a longer term chart which may well show most of the (four) phases in the breakout model. See the PGM chart below as reference; some details have been included on the chart.

You would have to agree that the capture of most of this week's pop is worth it: I took most of my profit today and expect some retracement over the next week or so....


w p

I was pleased to hear that you "didn't know I picked up some PGM shares a couple of days ago, good surprise. They have all been sold this morning. " Here: https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=316907&post=182296

but I can report that close study of the market using the system/s previously described by me elsewhere assisted in my purchase and sale of PGM.

Wishing you ever success in your trading Peter.


(Message edited by tryhay on June 06, 2016)


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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In an attempt to make clearer the point I tried to make above (Post Number: 1566), I have related that discussion to a "real life" DCC chart discussed above. Of course one could scan the population of chart/s that only strictly follow the idealised model - but why not use the wider population of chart/s that "generally follow the model?

The model provided (in the bottom left hand side of the graphic) is the model taken from Colin's Weinstein Breakout Model page: the idealized model.

The real world chart tracks all over the place - but one could label the phases as I have attempted to do. I don't see the point in over analyzing the PA between 3. & 4. (where PA dipped and then made the all time high, before breaking again to new lows).

The point is, if the price action follows the generalised model then it is reasonable to expect PA to pop higher (generally from where it is ATM) - whether one understands this happens because of the possible breakout from the flag, or because of PAs "urge" to follow the Weinstein Breakout Model.

Either way to me it looks like one could trade the breakout (or get on board before the breakout if it meets your trading plan).

I hope this makes the point I attempted to make last night......

dcc


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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PAK looks like a Stan candidate that is getting away: the coal sector looks to be perking up ATM.

Weekly chart: wonder if this is wave three (3) elliot wave (EW is not my forte)?

weekly


Happy trading DYOR


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gdd3
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Hi Tryhay ... Do you agree that MEP could be in the early stages of a STAN 2; seems to satisfy all demm rules on the Weekly chart now breaking out and supported by the 10WMA and with rising 30WMA.

Daily(+ CU Daily)highlights increased vols just prior to and at breakout of 12 month Basing Channel BUT also hints of a near-term consolidation from current (near)levels or ~ 9.2c ... maybe a back_test of breakout point or rising 10WMA again.

One to watch I would think...

Weekly STAN ...


Daily Chart ...


Daily "Close_Up" Chart ...




Cheers
Dolphin


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tryhay
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Hi Dolphin,

What a beautiful picture!!

I would prefer to look over a longer term before applying the features of Weinstein's Breakout Model: that provides the overall view of PAs context rather than focusing on what may well be abnormal PA (bit like that spike in Jan '15 - where did that come from?) - Dorothy dixer probably had some good fundamental reason!

The weekly chart is shown below without the phases being labeled (Phew it becomes grunt work remarkably quickly). Having said all that, if you do buy into MEP then one must still monitor the trade - as we all know PA can & does do its own thing if it wants to........

Weekly chart: with the heuristic taken form some weinstein website (lost track of it ATM but Mr Google would probably recover it)..........

weekly

One has to wonder at the direction of commodities in the near term / particularly with this dichotomy between breakout and breakdown discourse on equity markets ATM - we should ask someone who really knows, but he presently can not take his eyes off Mrs Prissy (apologise to anyone affronted by this sexist comment) but I find the current popular culture discussion about the market/s totally bazaar!!



fl


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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AGR has a thread in short term trading here: https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=8&post=182068
but should correctly be listed in the Stan thread as well IMO

Aguia Resources Ltd engages in the exploration and development of resource projects, predominately phosphate and potash in Brazil, and investment in the resources sector.

This AGR example is also not a text book example of the setup used by some (being a real world example), but I believe that applying the principles of those frameworks (described elsewhere) may well be setting up for another swing higher:

The major (weekly) trend is down (trend duration approx four (4) years), and more recently AGR has completed shorter term counter-trend swing higher and then an even shorter term swing lower.

weekly


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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LRS diserves listing in the Stan thread as well IMO

Latin Resources Limited (LRS) is a mineral exploration company focused on the identification and definition of mineral resources in Latin America, with a specific focus on Peru. The company has a portfolio of projects in Peru and is focusing on the Guadalupito Iron and Heavy Mineral Sands Project and the Ilo Iron Ore, Copper, Gold Projects (which include Mariela).

LRS has been in trading halt recently and released favourable company announcement thisafternoon: The quote I particularly liked in the press release was the analysis of the samples undertaken by the LRS team in recent weeks .
Analysis of four samples collected by Latin geologists of exposures of spodumene in old mine workings in three pegmatite deposits within the new claim applications reported grades of 6.6%, 7.1%, 6.3% and 4.9% Li2O respectively.
Combined estimates of Spodumene content within 15m of surface of 12 of these deposits subject of the latest claim applications are in excess of 120,000 t (Acosta et al 1988, Balmaceda & Kaniefsy 1982 and other non&#8208;JORC foreign publications).



The major (weekly) trend is down (trend duration approx five (5) years), and more recently LRS has broken out of a base & broken above the down-trending resistance.


weekly

already holding - expecting bounce on open tomorrow


Happy trading DYOR


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peterloh
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Speculative and interesting, not quite in Weinstein's stage 2 yet, but Tryhay could be of interest. RSI and MACD histogram in alignment and over neutral. I would have like a weekly chart and a longer establishment period. someone brought this to my attention.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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You are a gamer man than me Peter - I have trouble trusting that the bungie retrace will have the legs demonstrated by KBL recently.

Weekly chart: A very sloppy channel with more work required to consistently head the right way IMO (meaning the MSparks 1,2,3 to play out)....

weekly


Happy trading DYOR


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peterloh
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You got this straight from the horse's mouth, this is a high risk trade. Here are the weekly charts with RSI and volume.
The share is in a down trend, as represented in the weekly chart. Recently gold price has been climbing, KBL could very well benefit from it. KBL has its own processing plant and the haul road has just been repaired. If it works out, the return will be tremendous. It doesn't meet Weinstein's stage 2 criteria, I put it up here as I was asked what I thought of it.

We never know the actual affairs of a company, however if everything is what they said it is, management could pull it off if things go according to plan. I wouldn't put my kitchen sink on it though.







-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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AZS looks similar to KBL on my chart? It will be interesting to hear your thoughts, Tryhay.
RSI and MACD still above neutral however could be turning down.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Hi Peter,

AZS is into Precious metals (which may well continue their run).

The longer term weekly chart suggests that AZS has already broken out of the down-trending channel (10 year down-trend) and consolidated after B / Out (whereas KBL is struggling withing its current D/T channel), and volume patterns suggest accumulation of AZS at these levels before popping out of the pattern (I wish!!).



weekly

Am having ISP issues till EOM, but following issues as best I can)

(Message edited by tryhay on July 19, 2016)


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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GBM has nice STAN chart & wonderful fundamentals:

Completion of the purchase of the Bendigo Gold Project: Blurb

blurb

Weekly chart with daily detail: Looks like a BF trade IMO - especially as shown in last Quarterly Report when they clean up the site (as required) they recover bar/s of gold!

weekly

I guess when it does make a clean break it has multiple cents in it - & I doubt if the POG will affect the price action that much....


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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RIM deserves listing in the Stan thread as well IMO.

Rimfire Pacific Mining is a resources exploration company that has its major emphasis focused at Fifield in central NSW, located within the Lachlan Transverse Zone. Fundamentally has lots occurring ATM!

The longer term weekly chart suggests that RIM has already broken out of the down-trending channel (4 year down-trend) and consolidated after Break Out. Looks like it will give 8 Cents a work out in the next few month/s...



weekly


Happy trading DYOR


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muzza
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Rimfire looks interesting tryhay.

Can as ask your opinion on Red River Resources (RVR)?

RedRiverResources

Weekly Chart - but INCOMPLETE week (does not have today's data)

Looks like a Stage 2 resumption maybe on the cards.
Looking for a pull-back that respects the MA, and then a bounce off that to trigger an entry.

Regards
Muzza


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peterloh
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Excellent candidate stage2 Weinstein, for an entry you may have to watch MACD closely, Tryhay and Muzza. Yesterday's spinning top candle at end of rising trend and MACD histogram may signal a retest of support WHICH Muzza WAS LOOKING FOR, if it returns to that level, otherwise 2-3 down days before reversal for continuance. Met Weinstein's strict requirements of stage2 breakout.
I have not research the fundamentals so unable to comment on this aspect.







-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Hi Muzza,

I agree that RVR's Stage 2 up-trend looks to be resuming, but suggest there may be limited upside travel available (looking at the overall trading phases: from 2004 to now). The interpretation shown below may well be "off the wall" - but it would be worth considering your position when / if PA stalls out at some of the old resistance lines shown.

Whereas RIM's stage 2 may have only just begun and so the upside potential is more (% wise: from 3 cents to >30 Cents; compared to 25 Cents to maybe ~60 Cents), if held longer term and the share performs as might fairly be expected.

RVR Weekly chart: Many indicaters are positive and volume looks excessive....


weekly

P.S. If you wish to discuss it further then please create a separate thread so that Peter's thread does not get sidetracked... Ta

(Message edited by tryhay on August 12, 2016)


Happy trading DYOR


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peterloh
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Hi Muzza, below is a chart with the same period for RVR, it comes up with a different pattern. You sure the chart given by you is that of RVR or is it with a different scale?




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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RVR has broken out strongly on the daily chart, so it is appropriate to wait for retrace for an entry.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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muzza
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G'day Peter

I can confirm the chart that I posted is definitely RVR.

I use a semi-log scale on the Y-axis ... In a semi-log scaled chart, the distance between each point is exponential. For example, the distance between 30 and 60 (a 30 point, 100% increase) is the same as the distance between 60 and 120 (a 60 point, but still 100% increase). Semi-log scaling is a handy way to compare relative price changes rather than physical point changes.

On your chart volume is 27.899122m as at the close of yesterday. That aligns with my data, as does OHLC - as at the weekly close.

Note that when I posted above I called out an "incomplete week" .. since the chart was weekly and given the post was 10:43AM on Friday, I didn't have the weekly data complete.

cheers
Muzza


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tryhay
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White Cliff Minerals Limited (WCN) is a mining exploration company, exploring and developing nickel-copper and gold projects in Australia and Centre Asia. The Company's primary focus is on the Merolia and Lake Johnston projects.

Weekly chart has been in downtrend since 2010 and sliding sideways last couple of years. News driven sell off today with more focused drilling results due later this month.

weekly


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Cassini Resources Limited is an Australian resource exploration company with a dual focus on nickel, copper and gold prospects in Western Australia and gold exploration projects in Nevada (USA). The Company's priority is the Western Australian projects, located in Musgrave region. CZI is also looking to identify and assess other resource exploration projects.

Weekly chart with daily detail: Lots of fundamental stuff happening together with multiple year down-trend looks to have based out with PA attempting breakout?

weekly


Happy trading DYOR


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tryhay
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Carnavale Resources Limited is an Australian exploration company based in Subiaco, Western Australia, with a focus on exploration of gold and precious metals. The Company is focusing on its Essex JV Project and Long Horse JV in Utah and Western Australia.

Weekly chart: Been in downtrend since 2007, sliding sideways for ~4 years and decided to retest support. Worth a bounce play IMO and must be tired of consolidating by now!!

weekly

Daily chart: Is that divergence on the MACD?

Daily


Happy trading DYOR


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gdd3
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Hey Tryhay ...

Some time back(~ 8wks) you mentioned RIM as a possible "STAN" candidate and hinted a future breaking out of a stage 1(my Stage 1 parameters may be different to yours). Well, whilst we are still quite some distance away from a "breakout"(into stage 2) I do think the action since our 1st test of the same(i.e. 3c - 3.3c) is quite normal and therefore encouraging ... high vols on initial breakout followed by reducing vols on backtest(of breakout on my DTL)and with both the MA's still in +ve crossover territory together with the RSI/MACD still being at bullish levels.

I do think, for the more aggressive trader/investor, that this level(2c) is a high reward low risk management level for entry ... Risk 10% for a possible reward of 65% min ... back to 3.3(or 400% going on your 'work out' level of 8c).

See how she pans out ...

Cheers
Dolphin





P.S. Have you had a look at some of the Oiler's ... BPT, OSH, STO, SEA, WPL or even little minnow, TAP? ... given Crude Oil's rising trend}


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gdd3
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Hi Tryhay(et other Weiner's)...

Can't believe it has been nearly 6 mths since I posted on RIM and more specifically seeing that nothing has changed... she's still grinding out a possible/probable Stage 1 base. Well, at least I got the 1.9c right! Now that we have hit the 3c level again, and judging by the RSI, probably going to get some S/T consolidation from near here but if that only equates to say to the mid 2's I think it could be a real goer. Anyway, I again post the same chart ... just 6 mths on!





Another promising Weiner is DFM, albeit a day late for the perfect entry, but maybe one of interest. Like the accumulation set-up over the last few weeks and then bingo ... breakout! Now all we have to see if that is more than a P'n D.





Cheers from hibernating Dolphin}}


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sway
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Hi IC
It's been a few years since I posted on this forum and I only browse a few threads occasionally. After all this time, I see that there is still the misconception that RSI is used in the Weinstein strategy.

RSI is Relative Strength Index. It is a totally different indicator to the Relative Strength as used by Weinstein. In IC parlance, Weinstein's Relative Strength is called Price Ratio. It is the ratio of the share price divided by the underlying index (typically XJO or XAO for the Australian market). A positive slope of the Price Ratio means that the stock has risen relative to the underlying index. Note that Relative Strength can be positive but the share price can still be falling - it's just that the index is falling faster.

I still use a Weinstein chart (weekly, 5yrs) in IC as one of the two charts I frequently look at.

Cheers
Sway


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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sway
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Here is a screenshot of my Weinstein profile for those interested.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/19369914/NAB%20Weinstein%20IC.jpg


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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colin_twiggs
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The biggest issue IMO with trading breakouts is the low win rate -- the percentage of breakouts that follow through into a strong trend.

Have any of you had similar experiences and what strategies do you use to overcome this?


My views expressed on this forum do not consider your personal circumstances and should not be considered as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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sway
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Colin
I don't particularly follow the Weinstein strategy although there are some aspects I use. I just called that IC Profile "Weinstein" years ago and now use it as my default weekly chart.

Actually, when I looked back, it has been 6 years since I last posted here.
Cheers


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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muzza
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Hi Colin,
I am not the fastest, nor most aggressive and certainly not the most profitable trader you will run across!

But my entry criteria and money management rules have for the most part kept me safe over the years.

When the entry criteria have been met what I do is aim to build into a full position.

At initial entry I purchase 25% of the position I am aiming for.

If all goes to plan I take additional 25%'s on re-tracements (or other criteria) until I reach my full position as governed by money management rules. Kinda like a dollar cost averaging approach.

So if I have taken an initial 1/4 position on a breakout, and if that turns against me then a stop loss takes me out. On the other hand if the trade gets "lazy" and the stock wanders around for (insert time period) I exit manually.

Clearly I don't buy as efficiently as the smart & sharp traders, but it is efficient enough for me and my appetite for risk.

I never go "all-in" on an initial entry, even if its a breakout that looks very juicy!

Regards
Muzza


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colin_twiggs
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Thanks Muzza,

Sensible rules. Especially limiting your initial entry to 25%.

Regards,
Colin


My views expressed on this forum do not consider your personal circumstances and should not be considered as financial advice. Please conduct your own research.

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tryhay
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Hi Sway,

I have plotted the various Relative Strength indicators available in IC charting package in the graphics available by hyperlink below - I routinely use two of the indicators (relative strength, Ratio & often accumulation distribution) - & have found that they can improve probability of success in trading - in addition to the standard indicators.

Here is a screenshot of the available Relative Strength indicators applied to NAB for any interested

Daily Chart:

http://i64.tinypic.com/206hnwn.jpg

Weekly chart:

http://i64.tinypic.com/2ajnkhs.jpg

Unfortunately you need to click on the hyperlink & then click on the image to make it bigger :-(

(Message edited by tryhay on March 09, 2017)


Happy trading DYOR


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peterloh
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Thank you for the various contribution and in particular sway for distinguishing Weinstein's requirements with our RSI.
My particular interest in Weinstein's method is for the selection of stock immediately after the breakout that is stock entering stage 2.I deliberately reduce my number of candidates to about 7-8, thus I don't go after everyone of them. The stock must have a story to back up, so I don't
go into it just because technically it has broken out.
Nowadays I do not trade as much so it is an investment for me in general.
As for RSI I am comfortable with the existing one in IC, as Weinstein's guideline is, that RSI must be above neutral. In other words, for me the SP performs relatively better than the All Ordinaries. As this is one of the guidelines only, it helps to a certain extend.
To take things further, like Muzza, I tend to take things further than the normal trade, I like to stay as long as I could if I think there is gas in the tank. My position sizing is not that of a normal trade but substantially larger.
My selections are open to all and you can decide for yourself whether this particular style is of interest and how it measure up to Weinstein with some modification.

Regards,

peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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sway
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Peter
You say "as Weinstein's guideline is, that RSI must be above neutral. In other words, for me the SP performs relatively better than the All Ordinaries."

If you read the definition of RSI
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/rsi_relative_strength_index.php?clien tID=26299&app_productcode=101&ic_a_id=1_25_25_0

you will see that it has nothing whatsoever to do with the All Ords. I repeatedly pointed this out 6-8 years ago.
Cheers


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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peterloh
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Agreed with you sway, however please note the qualification

"for me the SP performs relatively better than the All Ordinaries"

I have adopted this for myself personally.If it works for me
I will continue to use it till I learn another one, if it is okay by you.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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sway
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Fair enough. I just thought that since this thread had Weinstein in the title, it should at least reference the correct technical indicator used by Stan Weinstein in his book. RSI ain't it!


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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visions
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Sway
Thanks for the reminder about this indicator, I'd completely forgotten about it. Appreciate your posts.

Cheers ... Visions


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shadetreetrader
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Muzza, paying 4 lots of brokerage to enter a full position will greatly increase your costs, do you get around this by using CFDs or do you have a low cost broker?

Apologies to Peterloh for being off topic.


My posts should not be taken as stock recommendations or advice.
If the band's playing a Waltz, don't do the Fandango.

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muzza
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Hello Shadetreetrader,

I acknowledged that I don't buy as efficiently as others may, but to me the additional costs simply go into my Risk:Reward analysis prior to entry.

The core of my philosophy is to tightly limit losses and let profits run. And this has worked ok for me historically.

I also acknowledge that I am not a high-frequency trader.

Other answers - I do use CFDs, but not that often. If I cant get to Randwick to punt on the ponies, I might indulge in CFDs.

I use internet brokers for my definition of "trading".
I use a full service broker c/w advice on my investment portfolio.

Re "Trading" My simple maths:
If I am aiming for a position of 25k, then using internet brokers, assuming that I complete 4 lots of entries at $6,250 per entry will cost me $79.80.
This is 0.24% premium over a single brokerage entry.
(Factored for in Risk:Reward, looking at price targets, timeframe and where S/L is positioned).
A 50k position drops the premium to 0.18% over a 1-trade-entry.

And for the trades that dont work out - clearly I will not have spent the funds on additional brokerage.

Bi-Annually I try to review my total portfolio performances from a risk adjusted return perspective - The total portfolio includes all elements - Investing, "Trading", "Punting" (CFDs, Options, Warrants) .. and then try to learn and refine.

Hope this helps

Regards
Muzza


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shadetreetrader
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Hi Muzza, I admire your ability to turn a profit using a scaling in method.
I have tried scaling in and scaling out but found the extra brokerage costs consumed the profit on a trend following system with a typical win rate of around 33%
I would love to see how you do it, would you be prepared to post a few trades to demonstrate your method?
Regards STT


My posts should not be taken as stock recommendations or advice.
If the band's playing a Waltz, don't do the Fandango.

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muzza
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G'day shadetreetrader,

To allow Pete to keep the Weinstein conversation focused on that, I have responded here.

https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/12/4821524.html

Best Regards
Muzza


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danielc
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GREAT Stuff THKS just posting a picture of ASX DAy to see if it works}


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peterloh
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Weinstein's approach does reduced my risk. Today, without visualizing the chart, I won't be investing in any shares.
Also knowing at what point I am investing in, gives me confidence to invest everything in one go.
The problem with investing at a late stage has a greater risk of losing more, even if we claim that stop loss will reduce that, but how often that a stop loss has been triggered, the SP recovered almost immediately.
Weinstein's approach is to buy them low when it is ripe for a new trend.

To me volume is very important. Although I do look at my own RSI interpretation, it is not my prime concern as I have evaluate the share base on fundamentals too. In fact for the longer term approach, personally RSI is not as important.

Having said that I am not a purist Weinstein's follower as I come from a financial background. I do recognized Weinstein's stage of development approach in considering my selections. Wealth creation is not based on trading alone, but the ability to hold on when the share is going through temporary barriers like teething problems.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Username: tryhay

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Sunday, January 14, 2018 - 07:44 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MGL_MAGONTEC LIMITED has been consolidating after its long term downtrend (which commenced in 1993) for so long that any mission critical fundamental news is likely to be well received by the market IMO.

Weekly chart: shows >10 yrs of consolidation (within Stan's stage 1 phase) & it may well be ready to test resistance again. If MGL can demonstrate a ramp up of production then a rerate can be expected IMO

mw


Happy trading DYOR


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gdd3
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Monday, January 15, 2018 - 01:31 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Tryhay ...

MGL showing mixed TA signals(IMHO) and therefore I'd rate any interested parties best bet on "LUCK" atm.

Pro's ... I do see a potential Flag Pattern(Pennant as you have shown) here; volume action within this pattern has **sort of conformed; and SP action is still above the 61.8% extn level I have shown(1st chart).

Con's ... Hmmm, a few more of them ... I Question liquidity and when we have seen reasonable high volume day's within the pattern its seems the bias is on down days(e.g. last Friday)indicating (hidden)Supply still evident; all MA's shown(Weinstein's 10/30wma plus my 65/195ema) are on sells; most momentum oscillators are in Bear mode/levels(eg. RSI and MACD).

So, for the Bulls I see MGL's SP must see value above 4c/4.2c and with sustained higher vols. and not have see the SP below the 3.3c/3c support level.

As a parting comment ... I think there are many far better trading opportunities and Weinstein set-up examples to consider.

Chart 1 ... 'Potential' Flag Pattern ...



Chart 2 ... Weinstein's Chart Indicators ...




Good luck to Shareholders and I really mean it...

Dolphin


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sway
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Monday, January 15, 2018 - 04:58 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin

If one is looking at a stock with Weinstein coloured glasses, it's probably a good idea to use the correct Relative Strength indicator. You are certainly not the first one to grab the obvious (but incorrect) indicator from the many available in IC.

Please see https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=316907&post=1 83586 from March last year.

Colin's IC page has more info http://www.incrediblecharts.com/indicators/price_ratio.php?clientID=26299&app_pr oductcode=101&ic_a_id=1_25_25_0

Cheers
Geoff


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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gdd3
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Hi "fender" Sway... thanks for your response.

Let me "defend" myself.

1stly, I'm not a favoured Weinstein 'set-up' user nor a knowledgeable purist but, 2ndly, I do believe I understand the basics for an entry trade using his primary set-up signals. I exclude I.C.'s Price Ratio(PR) indicator that Colin suggests is "similar" to the Price Comparison(PC) that Weinstein exponents use/recommend particularly when looking at sub-ASX300 stocks ... like MGL. I don't think it is at all possible to find a comparison stock(s) or sector to get even a remotely true PR or PC to gauge out/under_performance. And that's my point for "throwing_in" my MA's as just as good if not a better MA comparison to use in such minnows (me personally would use Daily's and not Weekly's).

Those basic I.C.(Colin's recommendations) for Weinstein breakout trades/entries I BELIEVE could be summarised as below(I'm happy for them to be questioned or added too).

1/. ... Stan Weinstein's model employs a combination of proven techniques to identify breakouts from a trading range,

2/. ... Breakouts are stronger signals when confirmed by (higher)volume.... Yet to happen with MGL.

3/. ... Go long at a breakout above the trading range.Place a stop-loss one tick below the bottom of the trading range(basically as I suggested in my last posting).

4/. ... No trades may be entered if price is below the 30-week weighted moving average or if the moving average slopes downwards.(MGL's SP shows both these are evident.}

Cheers

Dolphin}}}

(Message edited by gdd3 on January 16, 2018)


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sway
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Hi Dolphin. No problem with your analysis and conclusions. I just saw RSI on your Weinstein chart and felt the need to point out that it has nothing to do with the indicator used by Weinstein. As you say, MGL is such a tiny illiquid stock that it would be meaningless to calculate the actual Relative Strength ratio used by Weinstein.

Cheers


This is not a recommendation or advice. As they say .... DYOR.

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peterloh
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Monday, February 12, 2018 - 09:45 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I really admired people like dolphin, tryhay, dydavo, shadetreetrader, sway and others with their technical proficiency. I often struggle at this aspect, so I rely on my mumbo-jumbo type of interpretation to get me by.
I often gave myself an excuse that the interpretation could be subjective, the penny share is illiquid and I could get away with it.

I came across NZC which is so similar to RIM in its pattern.
Only thing is, MACD histogram and the RSI, although turning up is not yet positive. NZC came out recently from a three year's down trend. If we look at the weekly chart, it is trading in a range from 20c-40c and is in Weinstein's stage 1. As an investment, I look out for multi baggers by picking them low with great potential, thus I don't have many good candidates. I am concern with the macros and NZC has copper and cobalt. Cobalt is very much in demand and thus is fascinating for me. I only begin to indulge in it, so in a way still testing water. Dolphin and tryhay, if you happen to come across this post, please care to comment.





In the daily chart, NZC has returned to test support at 25c and bounce off it. Currently it has support at the 30c level.
SP was recently affected by a large holder exiting. There appears to be some new comers getting into NZC. The shares are quite tightly held. There is some volume coming in the daily and weekly transactions lately.

(Message edited by peterloh on February 12, 2018)







-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis or comments and insights of both macro or micro issues and not intended to be taken as investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold to any security or to adopt any investment strategy.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. All investments involve risks including possible loss of principal. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect. It is not a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any region market, investment or strategy. Market and economic conditions do change, comments, opinions and analysis are only current as on the day it is written and may change without notice. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Tuesday, February 13, 2018 - 02:15 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter,

NZC has not come up on a scan recently, but I see price action has retraced towards "fair value" & recent favourable company announcements have been reported.

The outlook for commodities looks favourable & on that basic NZC looks like an attractive buy around this level.

Daily chart: MACD curl may well play out with a low volume PA retrace.

nd

Weekly chart: Nice accumulation volume close to All Time Low. Price action on the weekly chart looks to be retesting the breakout of down-trending resistance (should now be support).


nw


Happy trading DYOR

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