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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Alumina Ltd AWC

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » A Portfolio for To-Day. » Alumina Ltd AWC

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dug
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Friday, June 02, 2006 - 04:07 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Aluminum-to dirt add Bulk Electricity and HEY Presto!!
Aluminium is a bit too specialised and 'Dirty' for me.I suggest you follow rederob and his comments for following it as a Material GOer.I think it[aluminium] is pretty well a Monopoly of ALCOA Inc.and frankly I don't want to know about it unless Capral makes a comeback from d'Gutter,becomes a flying fallen angel.
AWC's chart suggests to me that it may have stepped up a Dollar or so from it's previous Channel/Gutter to now float along $6.50/8 but I'd want some Input re its[AWC's] angles from China.There is most probably NONE[other than AWC's "bit' of Alcoa]




Avatar- PHACOPS{speculator}from the Devonian Period.

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tryhay
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Thursday, August 03, 2006 - 10:31 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Dug

AWC looks to have lots of interest today (breakout from downtrend) and is staring at Fully franked dividend within the next month. UBS is recommending it ~ which is good cause none of the indicators looks attractive except for the bounce today IMO.

Even if they do get their hands dirty looks like a good setup

Daily chart

d
I topped up today
Mark

(Message edited by tryhay on August 03, 2006)







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dug
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Thursday, August 03, 2006 - 11:20 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



From a chart view-may be just geometry like going to end up sideways not double bottoming.Not too good that 50 break,lower low etc blah.
Don't know any FA update on how aluminium is going.It's excessive use of electricity is very detrimental IMHO.
they should run them on Ethanol!!at least try,hey?


Dig for the sake of it.

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tryhay
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Thursday, August 03, 2006 - 11:32 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Yes dug only time will tell (more likely need to reach for the aspros as 'they' try to shake out the weak in heart if AWC does slide sideways) but AWC is prone to volatile gapping and channel ranging in the past (ar la ~6 months ago when it bounced with a group of three thingies).


On another point, the wind you can feel, (mentioned by some on IC in other threads) may be from those BIO teck shares you are keen on is probably methane/hydrogen sulphide (or swamp gas) so I wouldn't stand too close to the bottom draWER (if that is where you keep them).

Unfortunately I have to do something more productive that IC banter now dug - Have a nice day

PS CBH still sliding sideways :-(


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holycow
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Thursday, August 03, 2006 - 11:52 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



AWC weekly


1) gentlemen, could this be a potential H&S?

2) to produce AL, I believe, is energy intensive, which makes it a "derivative" of energy play. I think AL is plagued by high cost of energy plus keen competition from China as well as from SE Asia.

3) the weekly chart shows the sp right now is sitting on a 4-yr trend line. If it breaks down, it could mean it may be facing quite a serious problem in its future "numbers"


Cheers.


HC

"... if you've got a chart, I have an opinion!"

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rederob
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Friday, August 04, 2006 - 12:37 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



dug
I can only say that anybody not buying into AWC right now is likely to miss about a 20% return in 6 months.
The stock is supported fundamentally by almost any yardstick you want to measure it by.
Aluminium stocks at LME and SHFE warehouses have started to leave at increasing rates.


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tryhay
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Friday, August 04, 2006 - 07:40 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I appreciate the interest in AWC and the comments have been instructive.

I would be happy with ~10% gain and I'm expecting that to occur within this month (because of the dividend play).

A close stop loss will guard against a possible breakdown (as indicated by HC ~ thanks very much!) and further long term call warrants should allow leverage into the probable improve in aluminium prices later this year early next.

Holding both shares and warrants.
mark


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peterloh
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Friday, August 04, 2006 - 12:51 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



JR,tryhay,rederob,

AWC does not look very attractive at this level. I have decided to jump on to the bandwagon today.With dividends going ex on the 9th, august, we may see some action soon.

With Best wishes,


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dug
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Friday, August 04, 2006 - 02:19 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I don't know about this one,like I try hey to inculcate to d'calculation r2r's gung-ho on materials but,well "They" don't seem to be responding today to yesterday's Announcement too well.
2pm VWAP 629 which is only about 10cents [the dividend]up on the Day before announcement.But it's a down day so that's why,right?
I would of thought it would have done more of a Kick along today,but I'm still using past expectations.These days it seems a positive report is a signal to tread water not sprout some wings and whack on 10% to take out ol' worry warts misgivings.

I see tryhay you're from Woolongong so you're familiar with Industrial Enviromental Shenanigans but I think I saw AWC on d'Telly a while back getting roasted for ruining the SW corner of WA.Aluminium is a messy business.No wonder THEY are worried about China doing their own production.No probs there with Greenies!!and sundry others who like fresh air!

Anyway,you've got ya Stop in place.Watch out for a post-Div gap.
Happy Trading.
jr


Dig for the sake of it.

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dug
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Uboat on d'Ask at 34;Algo[small parcel] Buying in 30's;stick a 100k+# bid in at 30's you're accomodated.
Supply and Demand Live to Air.
who says screen watching is boring!!


Dig for the sake of it.

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dug
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Friday, August 04, 2006 - 03:09 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Whoosh Uboat is off the screen.Not met but came by for a Come'n'Get me if you want.You'll just have to trust I'm not Delusional and the Uey was REAL!!
what is the Number to Qualify as a Uboat?is it a $value or a #parcel?


Dig for the sake of it.

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peterloh
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Friday, August 04, 2006 - 04:35 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I am quietly optimistic with this one.After a sharp rise, I expect a retracement. This gives me an opportunity to get on, yesterday I was only debating whether I should be "chasing it".Iam leaning to rdr estimation, JR.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Friday, August 04, 2006 - 05:29 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello dug,

You have raised some matters that correctly should be answered in the Back pages ~ so as not to sully the technical/fundamental point/s of this thread.

If you are interested in these matters then please respond there dug



Sufficient to say here that AWC is presently in a trading range and still has a probability of providing a div deal - hence the comment in this thread.

Mark


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dug
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Friday, August 04, 2006 - 06:52 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Apologies tryhay,but I don't quite understand what you mean?
What point specifically do you see as a Joke worthy of Back Pages?
Woolongong?Uboats?Where do you have a problem deserving of me going to BackPages irrelevancy?China as a Enviro Vandal?Is that only joke material?
Did you miss this afternoon,perhaps?Up to 2pm AWC was in 'trouble',a Uboat appeared at the Opening Price[34] and then was gone.However it's appearance brought out the Buyers,if you look at the Course of Sales from about 2:15pm and 3pmish you'll find 100k#+ parcels going thru and a bit of Argy Bargey Bear Seller ripping thru Bull Buyers.It was interesting and I hope you,tryhay,get a chance to ponder on the Action.
AWC ain't out of the Woods yet,pal.Someone BIG is ditching into the Market.THEY must have their Reasons and Maybe their selling will be absorbed by Bulls who follow d'LME,who knows?I certainly don't care either way.Now that I watched,pondering on if IF I'd join ya in AWC,I've decided NIX on the basis of this afternoon's Viewing.

Now I'm a bit cranky tonight.Extraneous Events and stuff but I'm a bit peeved by that BackPages quip,tryhay and I'm expecting some kind of Clarifying Comment on me Email by d'Morning.
Happy Trading.


Dig for the sake of it.

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tryhay
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Friday, August 04, 2006 - 07:11 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rest assured dug,

Rather than bog this thread down with Triple Bottom Line diatribe I thought I would move the discussion from this thread to the back pages (sorry I should have chosen the general one where stuff donít fit into other threads).

There is no joke with this AWC matter ~ until it verifies the bounce off the resistance line it is at risk of breaking down as you and HC suggest.

I'm not as sophisticated as you ~ donít have online view of market so miss the subtleties you thrive on - but will be keen to see the outcome on tuesday and trust my broker keeps my best interest at heart :-)

I'm sorry about your crankyness but I am responding in good faith dug

PS if there is a joke with TBL then it relates to accounting for managers: you will be familiar with my friend Kennie (not the one from South Park, but GW Bush's mate) - TBL and ethical running of oranisations is the joke on our society - but this belongs in the general area.... (or not being spoken at all)

Mark

(Message edited by tryhay on August 04, 2006)


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tryhay
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Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 08:57 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For those who may be interested...
Both the AFR (August 5-6 P12 Bloomburg) and The Australian (August 4 P24 Andrew Trounson) have articles about AWC - makes me wonder whether this is a beat up of the share value, or actually good press?

The tag line in the AFR is that consumption of the metal was forecast to rise to 51 Mil ton/tr from 32 Mil tons/yr in 2005, ...BHP slide presentation said...

The australian article focusses on the 59% increase in first 1/2 profit but balances that against rising cost (well done!). BHP have put off its expansion (because of rising costs) and Wagerup (AWC's WA production facility) is low cost and stacks up highly (I'll believe that when the augmentation is finally approved by WA govt.).

I seem to remember recent skuttlebut that AWC may be taken over by Alcoa - sounds like one of those tax deal thingies to me?

What am I likely to do on Tuesday? I think I'll take some profit (if there is some) but maintain a holding of warrants and shares as a contingency for possible AWC SP improvement.


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peterloh
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Sunday, August 06, 2006 - 09:57 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I am in it for the long hull,as in the short term it is the volatility of the market which made things hard to forecast.When making a decision I take into consideration the upside and the downside risk.With an optimistic forecast, the leaning is on the upside, however the volatility of the market may see it going the other way.For the longer term, I see it on the right side of the ledger.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Monday, August 07, 2006 - 10:05 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



In the 5 years weekly chart, AWC is at the bottom of the channel. In the daily chart, it is at double bottom, a good chance it will bounce back and off the bottom.A slight divergence between SP and RSI? The last report augurs well for AWC.







-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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msparks
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Monday, August 07, 2006 - 10:21 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



quote
The market outlook for aluminium is forecast to remain in deficit through 2006. At current LME aluminium price levels Alumina's full year 2006 Underlying Earnings sensitivity to a US1 cent movement in the metal price is $13.0m.

(underlying earnings is ??? net profit i presume)

I guess if 1 cent US means 13mil dollars to the AWC,(not sure if this is the earnings result or revenue result ? ) and the au/us dollar is also a factor, we could do a calculation of the effect in aluminium price movements.
Obviously, if Al is rising and the au dollar is falling against the US dollar, the benefit of the Al rise would be reduced somewhat and visa versa.

Do people who invest in mining do these calcualtions ?
Along with the hedging effects ?

For example, how does the au/us dollar fluctuation affect a company like KZL, as the mine output is probably the most static of paremeters, compared to metal price,au/us dollar, and hedging effects.

Or just use the charts, it seems the easiest way , without muddling around with guesstimates and information that might be out of date on a daily basis and share price can be affected more by sentiment, isto support and positioning etc.


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peterloh
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Sometimes result is affected whether the $ is being hedged. I leave that to management to decide as a decision can affect the outcome of the company.Probably you may have to ask management of AWC about this.

Regards


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Sunday, August 13, 2006 - 06:56 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Don't like the look of AWC recent performance and the way the market/s is/are shaping up I think I'll reduce my exposure (so to speak) on monday morning ~ even though some support may be coming to the rescue this week.

d

On another matter, PPX is also looking decidedly pale and peaked (don't like the idea of it failing the 200 DMA...must do better!)~ I think I'll do likewise. There is some support not too far away but the XAO is looking ugly to me....
w

Perhaps when the market sorts itself out (I wish) I'll jump back in....

A holiday would be nice, but back to the salt mines tomorrow.
Mark



Mark

(Message edited by tryhay on August 13, 2006)


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tryhay
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How predictable is that ?

Bounced off the S Term support back into recent consolidation area, perhaps heading towards the 200DSMA. Having sold out 1/2 of my holding I think I'll look for something else (more likely sit on the sidelines and await some market direction ~ I wish).

Daily chart d


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tryhay
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Since posting on Saturday, August 05, 2006 - 08:57 am Wagerup Alumina Refinery has received Environmental approval of WA Govt. AWC has to rework the $ numbers (project has been in development phase for >2 yrs) but it is my guess that interest in AWC will increase shortly.

Several point of interest from a broker:
1. We remain positive and forecast stability in aluminium pricing for H2 06 and into 2007.
2. Stock is trading below replacement value
3. Buy 2 Stock pricing in maximum pessimism
4. Target $8.68 (DCF, 10% d.r)

Daily chart: Probable respect of support, MACD in the sweet spot & shaping up to cross, still waiting for volume & DMI to turn +ve (do not expect to have to wait long)...

AWC_Daily

Al Price: Flat price ~ but trending up slightly
spot-aluminum-6m

LME-warehouse-aluminum-6m-Large: Al Stocks heading in the right direction for increased price rise!

lme-warehouse-aluminum-6m

Nearly time to top up I suggest
Mark


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peterloh
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It is good to see AWC having a good day, it must be the resource price that pushed it up.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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tryhay
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Friday, January 12, 2007 - 09:28 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



NWQ investments & associates have been topping up in AWC + there has been scuttlebutt about Alcoa in the popular culture so it must be worth considering for the portfolio?

The weekly AWC chart shows a poor picture of a share all over the place, however: some indicators have attempted to look +ve, short term support has been respected, and when it gets on the right side of the current resistance it will be worth topping up I'm guess:

awc

I currently have some AWC call warrants







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peterloh
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Thursday, January 25, 2007 - 03:04 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A strong upday for AWC with volume.Breakout on daily chart.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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