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PBG - Diversified income flow

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » A Portfolio for To-Day. » PBG - Diversified income flow

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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 1988
Registered: 03-2003

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Monday, August 21, 2006 - 12:03 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



PBG has gone into bedding comfort area in a big way at a time when the price are low for acquisition.Does it augurs well for future prospect of PBG? PBG is due to report on wednesday, will it show a vast improvement over it first half results?Will PBG increase it's dividends pay out?
If there is no comments from dug or msparks, I would be disappointed.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dug
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Monday, August 21, 2006 - 12:32 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well,Mr Loh if I was holding this Collapsed once Beauty,I'd be pondering the Myer sale and the proposed CML fall into hands that might not be so enraptured by Icon status!
Furthermore my eye would be jaudiced by the chart of past rises on the day before Announcements that fell away on the actual day AND I'd be wondering about those Favoured Instos who ditched out Substantial not so long back [Perpetual wasn't it Pete?]
but then again I'd probably be getting worried by Millers Rise on Poor,like really,Poor Volume too.
but me? I'm just keeping the eye on SuperCheap!!
cheers,
jr







Dig for the sake of it.

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peterloh
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Monday, August 21, 2006 - 12:53 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



dug

Always willing to listen from a different angle.
Read RCL is getting out of retail and instead concentrate on trade sale. If, so Supercheap will have lesser competition.I think at this point(price) both RCL and your one will do well in the long term.

As for the instos, I do my own research and analysis and trying to be a step ahead.Instos could sell or buy for several reasons, refer MFS, I got in when they sold out at $3.60. I am betting on my own belief most of the time, a couple go wrong but over all quite satisfied with the outcome.Expect another 15% to come from PBG by end of year, or they may surprise all of us by giving a really good one on Wednesday and reward those that are in it.

Cheers


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dug
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Monday, August 21, 2006 - 01:48 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



So Peter I have to ask,do you wait til you're told?
Like I anticipate.I see Myers is dumping their stock.Sale!Sale! Sale! as soon as it was bought they're scrabbling for money back seemingly with no regard to cost price,clear it out.That's how it seems to me.
Then I wonder about the ReStocking.I've read how Myers is going to compete with Target NOT David Jones.Are they going to be Lower Priced in say underwear than Target?What supplier will give them that price advantage?Bonds going to be able to play both sides against the Middle?I don't reckon so.
Anyway,it won't show up in the Last Year figures but if you ponder on the whole PacBrands Range[incl sheets]ya get some concern about these Big Retail Moves that are ACTUALLY happening and I,at least,try to anticipate effects on They such as PBG.
I know you'll be ready for any Market effect Wednesday,Mr Loh.You're a professional but there are others I worry about.
cheers,
jr


Dig for the sake of it.

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peterloh
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Monday, August 21, 2006 - 04:15 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



dug,

I am talking long term here and the price we pay for them.I am also talking about dividend yield and I am talking about cash flow which PBG is having in abundance.A share is only as good as what you pay for them. I am talking about changes for fallen angels.Where there is change, there is hope and I am talking about reality.So as the heading say "portfolio for the day" and long term, I can accept short term volatility for long term benefit provided I think there is intrinsic value in where I put my money in.If I think the company is sound and it won't go bust on me.

Also I normally enter when no body else wants them provided that I think they are oversold and the company is being misunderstood.I always try to make sure that the upside risk is many times more than the downside risk before I put my money where my mouth is.

In recent months, a lot of shares have gone further down after ex div, then it is a decision one has to make whether to acquire them cum div to benefit from the dividends and franking credit or to wait for it to ex and bottom out before buying into them.If the latter is the decision, then we lost out on the distribution if the share recover quickly after going ex div.

Having say that I hope that no one acts based on what I say as everyone's objective and needs, current situation are different, that include their risk profile and time frame.I am a believer that TA reflects on what the FA is and in doing so often exaggerate because of momentum.

cheers


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Thursday, August 24, 2006 - 11:34 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



PBG, second half's result has to improved by 10% so that it can cover the first half decrease in profit in 2006.The SP will be re rated in the near future after the down grade after its report of lower profit, 6 months ago.2007 will see the benefits of merging the newly acquired bed comfort companies like Sheridan into its main line of business, by closing down some of the less profitable operations and reducing cost further and improving its buying. By distribution from a warehouse in China, Shanghai directly to its customers, PBG will have big savings.Also centralising its staff will further reduce cost.Cost is thus save from the following area,distribution,buying,administration ,operations and sales.There is synergies achieved and more diversified products offered to the same customers.

In the weekly chart, PBG share price has already gone above the 15weeks and 30weeks MA and the 15 weeks average like wise will cross over the 30 weeks MA soon. This is where Weinstein followers will start to pay attention to PBG and as it is the initial stage, there may be opportunities of a bigger profit for an early entry.
In the daily chart RSI is turning up strongly and PBG's SP has broken out from the consolidation of the past two and a half months.From here on, PBG's SP is likely to go back to the previous area before the fall because of the down grade.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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moleman
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Friday, August 25, 2006 - 10:48 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peter

Thanks for the fundamental picture. There's also a $75M share buyback starting on 15/9. I like the chart, especially yesterday's action where PBG stood tall, so have got back in for the dividend strip. It's 7.5c again - does anyone know the ex-date?

cheers

MM


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peterloh
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Friday, August 25, 2006 - 12:02 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Stephen,

PBG is going ex-div on the 28th August.At the current price of $2.45, the dividend yield is 8.74%.The buyback will support the price of PBG in the middle to longer term. In the short term, PBG will try to buyback its share at the lowest price possible but in the long term, less shares mean increasing yield.Even if PBG just maintain its current position at today's price, we will still see another 20% to come from PBG consisting of 13.11% in dividends stripping and a very conservative increase of 6.89% growth.Personally I see another 15% growth in its share price within 13 months as I have allowed 3 dividends payment as the first ex-div is on Monday.I have not provide in any allowance for increase in dividends growth but a half to one percentage increase in dividends payment each distribution is not unexpected and will increase the total return of PBG.(As usual nothing is guarantee, basing on everything maintains status quo and nothing happens out of the ordinary, so please do your own research for your own personal circumstances).


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dug
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Sunday, August 27, 2006 - 09:24 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)





moleman-I assume you sold out Friday on your dividend strip?Appears PBG was popular for that purpose,with 2 days prior to Announcement[Wednesday] also showing activity.
Do you the cfd method moleman?turning the 7 cents div into geared 30%ish?
What price ex-Dividend Monday? Will the 200EMA hold it up or will PBG go sub that[235 cents]?
There were some negatives in the report.Mainly that PBG was being bypassed by Big Retail when sourcing Home Brand Underwear [and Manchester ie sheets?]I imagine the Buy Back will kick in under 230.
Anyway,I'm hooked on the PBG story.It's all very educational.
Happy Trading.
jr


Dig for the sake of it.

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moleman
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Sunday, August 27, 2006 - 02:13 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dug

Maybe I'm using the term div strip incorrectly? Basically I'm following a technique used by a pro trader that I subscribe to whose site IC won't let me write here for some reason. The idea is to buy a share on margin leading up to the dividend date, pick up the dividend, then keep holding. I used to have a link by Macquarie that showed that 64% of the time prices went up leading up to a dividend payment. Also the trader showed a 89% return over 2004-2006 in a sample account, not including franking credits and just using eod data, so the approach seems to work. He gets out when price has gone up by the dividend, when he's got the dividend and price has returned to his buy level or a tight stop is hit. This is a short term trading strategy but I'm more mid to long term so use the approach to find buy candidates and time my entries.

You buy the actual shares as with CFDs you don't get the franking credits. Share's with a div+franking credit return on margin of at least 10% are candidates. For example, PBG has a return of (7.5c+3/7*7.5c)/$2.43 (entry) then you divide this by 0.3 as Commsec has a lending ratio of 70% which gives a total of 14.7%.

With PBG, I like that my long term MAs are starting to cross, that TMF has pushed above it's 100 day signal line, the price action leading up to and after the result especially Thursday, the share buyback, the ex-div date and Peter's analysis. To me this all seems to point to higher prices... I'll be surprised if it closes below $2.35 Monday.

cheers

MM


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dug
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Sunday, August 27, 2006 - 03:50 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi moleman,
I read a method of doing the Dividend Strip by this character "red-bird" that has a name seen as a Jam Maker?[can't promote,you understand?]Anyhow he was cfd gearing dividend payers and selling out when you describe OR if the share went up cum dividend by the amount/percent of the dividend but B4 the Pay Date,he sold then as well.This bloke was going for Earnings not Tax "Breaks".Franking Credits were Irrelevant to his main purpose.
I won't and actually can't tell you more about this method at the moment but it seems it was particularly effective in Prop Trusts and the like.I disliked it because of the Gearing CFD but I have to admit it seemed achievable and pretty "canny".

What you are doing is Old Time Div Stripping."They" got into controlling your method by the new Franking Credit Rules,hold for 40days or something?Of course these rules only apply if Bulk shares credits are stripped.5Grand$ or something isn't it?
Anyway,the technique also requires an Uptrend to be resumed within a few days of Ex Div Date.Good Luck with PBG doing that.I'm seeing last weeks action as Dividend Anticipation by perhaps d'Mums'n'Dads?My reading is PERHAPS there was an excess of exuberance?
but,well,I also hope you're right,moleman,and PBG don't go under 35 before you get 43[is it?] out of this Market.

Happy Trading.
jr
ps-Private Email me and I'll send you a link for reading about Div Stripping using cfd's.If ya want to know of course!


Dig for the sake of it.

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peterloh
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Sunday, August 27, 2006 - 10:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



dug,

As I understand it, you need to keep the shares for 45 days to enjoy the franking credits.Nothing is said about bulk, so even for a few dollars you need to keep the shares for 45 days.
In theory, the shares will fall in price by the amount of dividends it is paid out which in this case is about 10.5c ie 7.5c divide by 70% for the 30% franking credit.If it falls less than that,it is a price rise and if it falls more than that, it means the SP falls.
If we look at the chart, the support level seems to be at $2.35, so if it falls to around that level, it is a retest of the support level before it breaks new high.The first resistance is around $2.62 and is likely to be achieved in the next few weeks.If we look at the trading pattern of PBG over the last 2 years PBG will continue to rise for the next 3 weeks before the price retrace.
Like moleman I use leverage, ie my own money is only 30% of the SP, an annual 30% return roughly equal 90% return minis the interest rate of 8% per annum on the borrowed money.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dug
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Monday, August 28, 2006 - 07:53 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter Loh,
There's what's called a Small Shareholder Exemption from the 45 day Holding Rule if one's Total Frank Credits in a year are under $5000.That's total for All one's shares in a Portfolio.
Conceivably if one held shares in various legal entities one could apply the Exemption in each.[Company,Super Fund,Individually].

Happy Trading.


Dig for the sake of it.

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peterloh
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dug,

A good one to know, one called "small shareholder exemption rule", Is there one for large shareholder's too, for individual?

Thank you.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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moleman
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Thanks Dug

I'll pass on the cfd link as I get all the bang I want for my buck from Commsec. I do have a cfd account but only use it to short indexes.

And you're spot on with the exemption. I trade my account and my wife's for this rule and to minimise the tax we pay.

I'm hoping PBG will become a long term hold, but see how we go...

cheers

MM


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peterloh
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PBG retested the support level of $2.36 this morning, will it hold here for a day or two before moving on again as it has done in the pattern of the last 2 years?




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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The daily chart shows a pattern of a cup and handle!
The weekly chart is likely to replicate the past pattern?
A few more weeks to run yet, is it to be late Sept or early Nov?




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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There is still juice in PBG.Daily chart, testing resistance level. Weekly chart has a double bottom and has now break out from the long term trend line.Also 15weeks MA currently crossing the 30 weeks MA. SP has already gone above the 30wks and 15wks moving average.
I hold PBG.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Sematrical triangle, break out, upwards.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Wednesday, November 22, 2006 - 04:05 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Exited my 50ks of PBG$2.64 last week, as the chart of PBG shows that it starts to retrace in mid nov/dec till february.


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Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Post Number: 2319
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Friday, February 02, 2007 - 12:34 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi dug,

PBG has not done much since my exit at $2.64, a difference of only 15c since November.PBG being cyclical has topped for the time being.PBG has acquired a few more companies and will need to digest its acquisition before moving up again.Buying out competitors is away of increasing its sale.I like its management.






-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Friday, February 02, 2007 - 12:36 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)






-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Monday, February 05, 2007 - 11:01 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I would like to get back in this one around end June or late July.Being cyclical, it may retraced after the dividends back to another attractive level. PBG is likely to test the ATH after this retracement as it has got rid of quite a few of its competitors and also has a broader income base after the acquisitions.This is from observation of the weekly chart, if past pattern is any guide. As usual do your own DD.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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wadda
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Post Number: 407
Registered: 10-2002

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Monday, February 05, 2007 - 11:29 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Peterloh,

the chart looks pretty good to me. When are the divs due?

The price action seems to be stabilised in an upward trend channel, so I wouldn't think it would retrace too far in the shorter term. The current trend is not as steep as previous ones that had sharp drops which may (or may not) indicate a bit more stability in its progress.



cheers,

wadda


"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein

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peterloh
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Tuesday, February 06, 2007 - 01:54 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi wadda,

I look at PBG as more of a range trade, this time round.I estimate the upside to be around $2.80 and the downside at $2.65 or $2.47 if it falls below the channel.

PBG has a first class management, and it strategies of acquiring its competitors and increasing its sales plus synergies will augur well for the company. With PBG being a cyclical share, I feel more confident in getting into PBG when it has retraced to the bottom channel or the support level.PBG happens to be one of my favourite, trading short term or long term.

PBG is likely to increase its dividends payment this year as it has done in the past.

Again this strategy of mine differs from momentum traders that buy on the break out and sell when it has triggered their stop loss.

PBG is likely to go ex dividends in march, although previously once it has gone ex on the 25th February.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Wednesday, February 07, 2007 - 12:38 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Today' engulfing black candle is a worry, PBG may come back all the way to $2.45/$2.55 level.





-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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wadda
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Username: wadda

Post Number: 417
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Thursday, February 08, 2007 - 12:03 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Maybe not as bad as that peter...on the weekly I have the price action still inside a trend channel...however if it had another similar down day and broke the 260-265 area I'd be more concerned.



I've been wrong before a la TSE!. However we've both gotta be right with SGL!

regards,

wadda


"Buy low, sell high is a cliche, not a blueprint for action. It blinds investors to the professionals' approach of buying high and selling higher." Stan Weinstein

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peterloh
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Thursday, February 08, 2007 - 07:46 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi wadda,

I am only thinking of the worst case scenario.It may just touches it and bounce back like BSG on $2.60. I didn't believe that too as it went below that and bounce back immediately.I have too much respect for PBG and more incline to agree with your anaslysis.By the way I met someone in Ipswich last month who also thought highly of PBG.I thought the upside for PBG is limited to a range trade for the time being.Any retracement from here on will get it ready to break out from its channel.







-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Monday, February 12, 2007 - 11:10 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It looks like PBG has many more fans now since I last traded it.Likely to have more up side risk than down side risk.Support at $2.65 level.




-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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