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What do I look For?

Chart Forum » Stocks - ASX: long term & fundamental » A Portfolio for To-Day. » What do I look For?

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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 1992
Registered: 03-2003

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Monday, August 21, 2006 - 10:30 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



1) A good management is very important to me.
What is good management? A good track record for success, willing to make the hard decisions to make things work, I rate Qantas management as very good in a very difficult industry, at the very cyclical low because of geo-political risk and high oil prices, high labour cost.It has very good solutions.It is not my selection because, I have never felt comfortable in the airline industry.
2) A company with a good cash flow is important as in difficult times, a good cash flow will help a company weather through very difficult time and also be able to continue with its dividends eg PBG, despite a lower first half profit is able to maintain its dividends.Good and regular income is important like WOR, UGL and TSE with regular maintenance and service work provides stability than companies that only work on projects which have higher risk and uncertainty.
3) A good dividend yield will help pay for some of the interest cost and with franking credit will come in useful at the end of the financial year.
4) Barrier to entry to the existing business is helpful as it lessens competition, could be due to high capital cost, skilled labour,high tech,existing infrastructure,market leader, geographical advantage, established market, good brand, economy of scale etc.Vertical integration is important as it is less dependent of external influence,eg the ACCC is concerned with OST integration with SSX and will not let the merger be in its current form.Natural advantage, eg Australia endowed with its resources.
5) It is important that the forecast result of subsequent year be higher than the current year in term of revenue and profitability.
6) I will look for fallen angels that has proven themselves in the past but currently being oversold because of market perception eg RIN, BLD, GUD etc are worthy candidates.
7) The share must not be overprice.I am adverse to chasing high price shares,as unless we get them early, if things do not turn out, it is a long way down.I will rather buy in anticipation and if a breakout has occurred, I will rather wait for the retracement first where the support level is being retested preferably.I will however used TA for entry and exit.Sometimes a higher high and a higher low is an early indication things are starting to change for a company that has fallen on bad times.
8) I will stay away from penny shares as I am in for the long haul and because of a limited selection of shares in the portfolio, I need to minimise my risk, so speculation is definitely out of the question.
There may be other points, but the above is some of the guide lines that I mainly use to determine my share selection.
You may like to add some other points that I may have overlook to add to the list.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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smallworld
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Username: smallworld

Post Number: 482
Registered: 01-2004

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Tuesday, August 22, 2006 - 05:48 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well done Peter, a very informative post.
Cheers
SW







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msparks
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Username: msparks

Post Number: 660
Registered: 10-2004

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Tuesday, August 22, 2006 - 09:17 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi PL

I enjoy your clarity Peter.

Cheers



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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 2045
Registered: 03-2003

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Friday, September 15, 2006 - 04:28 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sellers coming out in last 10 minutes to sell down WYL,KZL ,BSG and MFS. Fortunately there were also several big orders that came out late to absorb all these selling pressure.Just as well there are bargain hunters around picking up some good deals.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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dug
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Username: dug

Post Number: 1449
Registered: 07-2005

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Saturday, September 16, 2006 - 09:56 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings Peter,
One of the Tip Sheets came out with some Negatives on MFS this week.It got reprinted in the Qld papers.
Basically it pointed out the One Off profits of MFS due to probably one off property sales in the MFS P&L.These were considered distorting and unsustainable and possibly leading to a future Profit DownGrades.
It went on further to highlight that the Office of Fair Trading was investigating S8 for diddling the LandLord returns from Surfers Paradise Complexes.The landlords put private investigators in,Peter and have S8 pretty well COLD.

Anyhow,just thought you and any fellow MFS holders should have these angles brought to your attention.I'm off next week away from the computer so won't be able to make any reply.
Happy Trading,
jr


Dig for the sake of it.

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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 2046
Registered: 03-2003

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Saturday, September 16, 2006 - 10:30 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



dug,

Thank you for bringing to my attention, I will keep that in mind.I am sure there is some concern with their practice, like there is no smoke without fire.

I am also aware of you need to have sensationalism to sell newspapers.Whilst the general profession of journalism is quite respectable there are a few that is working between the fine line.

As an investor, long term trader I am more concern with the big picture.If Sel 8 is not doing a good job, I am sure in the long run, suppliers and customers will vote with their feet.As far as MFS booking a profit from their sales of property, it is not unacceptable practice. The question is whether they can regularly do it in the long run, otherwise the SP will tell a story.I find in certain ways, they are working like a small MBL or BNB but probably like an insect compare to an elephant.BNB also has a holding in MFS, which I think is like investment banking. That is my thinking anyway and I hope nobody will act on what I say, they should do their own due diligence.

I have been trading MFS for over a year now, and they not only been conservative in their projection, they have always under promisee an over delievered.So, MFS will do me for the time being Dug.

On Friday, it went ex but taking franking into consideration,they are already up 6c in a down day.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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smallworld
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Username: smallworld

Post Number: 498
Registered: 01-2004

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Saturday, September 16, 2006 - 11:28 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Peter,
SEL seems to be trading way below the takeover price compared to MFS, any idea why its the case?

You are spot on. Heavy selling only started 3.55 and most selling was done at the match. Any theory regarding that?


(Message edited by smallworld on September 16, 2006)


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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 2047
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Saturday, September 16, 2006 - 01:54 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Paul,

I think it was lightly that one of the overseas insto's unloading their portfolio.Most of them have support,KZL did not on Friday and got hammered down.ABC was at $2.15,WYL at $2.84 and MFS $3.94. ABC had strong support at $2.13,WYL ,$2.76 and MFS at $3.91 otherwise it could be a lot worst.I do not know of other shares probably quite a few were hit.From my observation, it wasn't that bad as there were bargain hunters equally strong on the buying side at lower prices.

No idea about Sel 8, actually it was pointed out to me to use Sel to get into MFS.I was only watching MFS model of increasing asset under management and they were able to build up their assets fairly quickly. Their model is probably to buy the assets themselves and hive off into a trust away from their own balance sheet but retain the management and collect the fees.

dug, have a good break and good on you to keep me informed.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 2063
Registered: 03-2003

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Tuesday, September 26, 2006 - 10:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



superboot,

Reference your pe I was not able to get through to you on your email address.The above is useful for fundamental analysis, not exhaustive, at least some basic guidelines is better than nothing.You cannot find it in any text because I write down the points that I believe in strongly.

For technical analysis, I find Weinstein useful and highly recommended.For easy reading I like Candlestick by Louis Bedford. Weinstein is mainly for long term trading whereas Candlestick is for short term trading. Don't forget other indicators you can use with Candlesticks to improve the probabilities.

One of the earlier Charting books that I started with is by an Australian author Christian Kirsten "Listen to The Market".

You are well come to ask me any questions you like.

Best Wishes,


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 2161
Registered: 03-2003

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Wednesday, November 22, 2006 - 04:53 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The market has a good day, so I made the decision to take some profit and get back in when the market takes a breather.My usual practice is to take some profit, when it gets too hot and buys when everyone else is selling.







-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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peterloh
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Username: peterloh

Post Number: 2163
Registered: 03-2003

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Wednesday, November 22, 2006 - 11:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



gairnz,

The beginning of this post describes some of the guidelines I use for my share trading activities.I have a business which I work full time however I do devote a lot of my time to my hobby of share trading. I would even go on to say that I spend more time than some that considered themselves to be full time professionals.However I do not think that profit wise I am better than them.Share trading is a passion of mine.

I mainly trade medium to long term but occasionally I also elect to trade short term as an extra to my normal medium to long term trade.I can be accurate at times, but other times I am shot.I use candlestick for my turning points supported by other indicators such as support and resistance level,MACD and RSI.I have admiration for many of the good chartist in IC, unfortunately many of them tend to focus on short term trades and penny shares as a result I find it hard to discuss some of the shares I nominated.I tend to research my shares fairly well and at times I am willing to bet against TA if I have to make a stand, for example I bought MRL on Monday,ABC when it was sold down 15c last week on a day which I bought in a fair bit.I also took a decision to buy JST at the close when I saw that was big transactions at $3.61 and there after stop loss selling on small volume set in and the SP went all the way down to $3.43, but I was only able to secure JST at $3.45 at the close.I saw no reason for the sell down, except for panic selling on a very good share with remarkable good management.The results of the company for the past 5 years speak for itself.I wouldn't haver bought any of them basing on TA alone.

I use a holistic approach in my share trading, ie the bottom line after tax and interest.I like fallen angels coming back, tax planning strategies, capital management ie buy backs and capital reconstruction and special dividends eg HGI,WYL,TSE,TWR and MRL. MRL is still to play out whether it will be successful, but I am an optimist.I also acquired a fair bit of TLSCA through a stock broker because I like the 14% dividend yield with 100% franking profit.


I do made some wrong moves,like recently on AWC,CSR,GNS and BLD which was against my guidelines.I pay for my mistakes in opportunity costs, sometimes even a small loss.I have closed my position on GNS and CSR.I am waiting to exit BLD and AWC because it was against my guidelines ie these company did not improve their profitability in the current year.

Currently I like smallworld, hersy and thommo TAs with smallworld using sector analysis to assist in his stock selections.

For the last 10 years, I read the overall market fairly well and was willing to make big bets on my selections with fairly good success.I buy some shares on very bad days when no body else wants to know the market and sell some shares on very good days when there is euphoria.

I hope the above describes how I think and what I do.

PS: I do not use CFDs but use margin loan for leverage.I don't have a bottom drawer as I do not take prisoners.


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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