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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Glad Tidings of Great Joy I Bring

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Glad Tidings of Great Joy I Bring

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Archive through October 03, 2007smallworld25 03-Oct-07  02:03 pm
Archive through September 08, 2007hilarius25 08-Sep-07  08:54 pm
Archive through August 20, 2007keith_s25 19-Aug-07  11:26 pm
Archive through August 05, 2007smallworld25 05-Aug-07  04:01 pm
Archive through July 15, 2007hilarius25 15-Jul-07  06:53 am
Archive through July 12, 2007hilarius25 12-Jul-07  08:54 am
Archive through June 18, 2007philr25 18-Jun-07  11:02 pm
Archive through June 14, 2007hilarius25 14-Jun-07  05:18 pm
         

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smallworld
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Post Number: 659
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TickerTradeDatePriceEx. dateEx. PriceSharesCostValue
OMHLong31/08/20071.2753/09/20071.3578431.4100,033105,849
RIVLong31/08/20073.533/09/20073.7628328.6100,034106,484
NXSLong31/08/20071.7253/09/20071.8357971100,033106,054
RDRLong4/09/20070.676/09/20070.65149254100,03396,982
DOMLong10/09/20073.3114/09/20073.1930211.5100,03596,343
GGPLong5/09/20070.3317/09/20070.355303030100,033107,543
SEALong17/09/20070.53521/09/20070.535186916100,03399,967
SDLLong12/09/20070.531/10/20070.835188679100,033157,514
MMLLong12/09/20071.471/10/20071.4868027.2100,033100,647
CUOLong12/09/20070.994/10/20071.17101010100,033118149
CUELong14/09/20070.2527/09/20070.24400000100,03395967
WPGLong17/09/20071.3226/09/20071.375757.6100,03498452
ANDLong17/09/2007128/09/20071.05100000100,033104967
GCXLong19/09/20071.3353/10/20071.5674906.4100,033116820
ABYLong19/09/20073.5326/09/2007428328.6100,034113283
CIGOpen Long20/09/20070.1359/10/20070.17740741100,033125926
GGPLong21/09/20070.3924/09/20070.385256410100,03398685
EQNLong25/09/20074.583/10/20075.0421834.1100,033110010
AMALong25/09/20070.7452/10/20070.83134228100,033111376
SAELong26/09/20070.6059/10/20070.61165289100,033100793
CUOLong27/09/20071.1654/10/20071.1785836.9100,033100396
ESSOpen Long28/09/20071.219/10/20071.2282644.6100,033100827
AREOpen Long28/09/20070.279/10/20070.47370370100,033174074
SEALong28/09/20070.5554/10/20070.64180180100,033115282
NWELong1/10/20070.3355/10/20070.32298507100,03395489
MIKOpen Long3/10/20070.4759/10/20070.55210526100,033115789
HMCOpen Long4/10/20070.1459/10/20070.145689655100,033100000
NDOOpen Long8/10/20070.3459/10/20070.37289855100,033107246

Ending Cash = 716.6K
Ending Capital = 1441K
Ending capital last Friday = 1409K
Net Profit % 43.99 %
Winners 41 (59.42 %)
Losers 28 (40.58 %)
Max. system % drawdown -8.20 %
Commission 4620.00
Avg Profit/Loss % 6.03
Avg Profit % 11.97
Avg Loss % -4.15




Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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smallworld
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Friday, October 12, 2007 - 06:19 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



TickerTradeDatePriceEx. dateEx. PriceSharesCostValue
WPGLong17/09/20071.3226/09/20071.375757.6100,03498452
ANDLong17/09/2007128/09/20071.05100000100,033104967
GCXLong19/09/20071.3353/10/20071.5674906.4100,033116820
ABYLong19/09/20073.5326/09/2007428328.6100,034113283
CIGLong20/09/20070.13511/10/20070.14740741100,033103,671
GGPLong21/09/20070.3924/09/20070.385256410100,03398,685
EQNLong25/09/20074.583/10/20075.0421834.1100,033110,010
AMALong25/09/20070.7452/10/20070.83134228100,033111,376
SAELong26/09/20070.6059/10/20070.61165289100,033100,793
CUOLong27/09/20071.1654/10/20071.1785836.9100,033100,396
ESSLong28/09/20071.2111/10/20071.2782644.6100,033104,926
ARELong28/09/20070.2710/10/20070.465370370100,033172,189
SEALong28/09/20070.5554/10/20070.64180180100,033115,282
NWELong1/10/20070.3355/10/20070.32298507100,03395,489
MIKOpen Long3/10/20070.47512/10/20070.6210526100,033126,316
HMCOpen Long4/10/20070.14512/10/20070.195689655100,033134,483
NDOLong8/10/20070.34510/10/20070.37289855100,033107,213
MSHOpen Long10/10/20070.16512/10/20070.15606061100,03390,909
ALDOpen Long10/10/20070.70512/10/20070.68141844100,03396,454

Ending Capital = 1.45M
Cash = 1.0M
Essentially flat for the week, a little disappointing








Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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lafee
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Friday, November 09, 2007 - 08:38 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hilarius,

My total should not have changed from 1298k as I have not traded this system for a couple of months. Should I add the interest on my cash I wonder.

Cheers

Lafee


Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

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hilarius
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Interest on cash balances is certainly allowable, as are dividends on positions held

A monthly notification will here at the Forum will suffice


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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smallworld
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Trades from 1/10
TickerTradeDatePriceEx. dateEx. PriceSharesCostValue
NWELong1/10/20070.3355/10/20070.32298507100,03395,489
MIKLong3/10/20070.47519/10/20070.775210526100,033163125
HMCLong4/10/20070.14516/10/20070.175689655100,033120657
NDOLong8/10/20070.34510/10/20070.37289855100,033107213
MSHLong10/10/20070.16523/10/20070.165606061100,03399967
ALDLong10/10/20070.70531/10/20070.9141844100,033127627
IGRLong15/10/20070.316/10/20070.295333333100,03398300
MUNLong15/10/20070.76524/10/20070.8130719100,033104542
HEGLong15/10/20070.1717/10/20070.185588235100,033108790
LNCLong15/10/20070.7518/10/20070.86133333100,033114633
CVILong19/10/20070.257/11/20070.375400000100,033149967
IGRLong22/10/20070.327/11/20070.545312500100,033170280
MIKLong24/10/20070.8055/11/20070.74124224100,03391893
MCOLong24/10/20070.3925/10/20070.395256410100,033101249
HEGLong24/10/20070.2426/10/20070.23416667100,03395800
NGFLong26/10/20070.417/11/20070.445243902100,033108503
LNCLong26/10/20070.8855/11/20070.85112994100,03396012
NDOLong29/10/20070.36530/10/20070.37273973100,033101337
CRCLong29/10/20070.4257/11/20070.49235294100,033115261
ADXLong29/10/20070.257/11/20070.225400000100,03389967
DMLLong30/10/20070.447/11/20070.45227273100,033102240
COKLong30/10/20070.6158/11/20070.62162602100,033100780
RDRLong31/10/20070.747/11/20070.95135135100,033128345
GUJLong31/10/20070.5957/11/20070.62168067100,033104169
GRYLong31/10/20070.6057/11/20070.69165289100,033114016
VCNLong1/11/20070.557/11/20070.575181818100,033104512
MCOLong1/11/20070.46/11/20070.39250000100,03397467
MUNLong5/11/20070.8556/11/20070.815116959100,03395289
AIILong5/11/20070.348/11/20070.355294118100,033104379
HZLLong6/11/20070.657/11/20070.7153846100,033107659
AVXLong7/11/20070.7558/11/20070.74132450100,03397980
AAMLong7/11/20070.318/11/20070.33322581100,033106419
BDLLong7/11/20070.378/11/20070.365270270100,03398616
CRELong7/11/20070.478/11/20070.485212766100,033103159
LNGLong7/11/20070.7358/11/20070.76136054100,033103368
GCXOpen Long9/11/20071.7159/11/20071.7558309100,033102041
CREOpen Long9/11/20070.4959/11/20070.485202020100,03397980
AIIOpen Long9/11/20070.389/11/20070.37263158100,03397368
ADXOpen Long9/11/20070.259/11/20070.235400000100,03394000

Ending Capital = 1.72M
Ending Cash = 1.33M
Total trades 104
Winners = 64
Losers = 40
Winning % 61.54
Avg Profit per trade 6.67%
Avg Bars Held 4.98
max system drawdown 8.06%
equity Curve:



Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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smallworld
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Saturday, November 10, 2007 - 03:54 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



weekly portfolio value for H
application/octet-stream
roger.xls (16.4 k)



Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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hilarius
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Good Evening

Here is the October Chart

Lafee and Smallworld are way above the rest of us and have reported separately

007 I am reporting your original portfolio as a point of interest. Are you still at $1,103,000 (Rounded) Cash ?

Hilarius

gt


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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hilarius
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I have overlooked a message from 007 showing his cash position is 1,175 in H$ 000's

Here is the adjusted chart :-

gt2


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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ody
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HILARIUS: GLAD TIDINGS

Hi Halarius,

I've just been looking at the 12 November update on "Glad Tidings" and how various individuals have fared.

First I should once again like to thank you for initiating this experiment and doing so much work for it.

Next, I have a question. I seem to recall that some of the participants actually decided to trade, so that it isn't a simple matter to see how things have developed, on a comparative basis (i.e., to compare apples with apples). But I believe that some of the others were planning to stick to the same portfolio. Was that indeed the case? I seem to remember that e.g. Resillent and Rudy, both of whom have done very well, and whose portfolios I greatly liked, were planning to keep them. If there were a number of people like that, could you say which stocks were chosen by them? For it is actually very interesting to be able to do a comparative study. For example, my own result is OK but nothing spectacular: I chose a motley crew, based on high EPS figures only, as I have explained. I'm keen to work out, in relation to the period during which we have done this, why some portfolios that may not have been "reset" have performed better than others, like my own. I suspect that the results would indicate superior stock selection for some of the portfolios, and am eager to identify, with hindsight, why that may have been so, i.e. which features made those non-trading portfolios that did very well as strong as they have proven to be.

If anything is inaccurate here, I am sure you and others will forgive me. But this is a bona fide query, and I think some analysis may be very revealing, not least while we may perhaps still benefit from it before Christmas!

Can you also please remind me when we started the experiment?

Thanks for your help, if you can give it.


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hilarius
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Thursday, November 15, 2007 - 12:48 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Ody

Here are the portfolios

A few notes

(1) I will try to post an Excel file for greater ease of use

(2) The two portfolios based on EPS growth rates exceed the stipulated size of 10 stocks per portfolio. This was intentional to provide a comparison to the participants' selected portfolios. Obviously in real life people would not invest in every growth stock, and the 2 growth groups are there for measurement/comparison purposes only

(3) You would be quite right to observe if you thought so, and I would agree, that the task of refining purchases from a generalised growth list is the real challenge

(4) Conceivably an institution might select many EPS growth stocks to provide differentiation from the All Ordinaries? If they did so on the basis of high EPS growth rates it appears from the short term evidence that they MIGHT do well by doing so. I presume they would apply many other tests as well, to give even more marked differentiation, but EPS growth seems to be a useful tool among many

(5) But clearly 4.5 months is far too short a period to draw firm conclusions

(6) Entries marked in orange indicate cash or stocks that were later exited

(7) It is assumed that the participants invested $ 100,000 (on paper) in each stock on 15th June 2007

(8) Clearly that too is not a real life rational choice as entry dates would be varied according to many criteria used by an individual

(9) I know you will be constructive and kind toward those at the lower end of performance in the project

(10) Vermante intentionally chose one stock (PDN) to see how non-diversifaction might fare compared to diversification. It was an experiment on his part as I understand it. I imagine he would have been fully aware it could go either way. In real life one might have a stop in place to control such a venture. I have heard of people who claim only to invest in one stock at a time about four times a year. I've not seen how they succeed or fail. However, I appreciate Vermante offering an interesting alternative!

(11) The table requires on a lookup table for the accuracy (or otherwise) of June prices from a data download file. If you locate any errors in those prices I would appreciate it if you could bring them to my notice

(12) Please let me know how I can add to the information provided in any way to help your review

Many thanks indeed for your interest

Hilarius



(Message edited by Hilarius on November 15, 2007)


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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hilarius
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I am having difficulty with the upload

I hope this works
application/vnd.ms-excelgt
glad tidings entries 70615.xls (241.7 k)



I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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hilarius
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Good Evening Ody

I hope the file upload below will save you some time

It values the portfolios as at various dates including 31st October and today 16th November 2007

There are three corrections to the previously published end October chart

XAO should have been up 7.31 % from 15th June to end October and is now up 3.31% (a 4% correction since the end of the month, which I believe justifies my real life flight to cash, at least in the very short term)

There is an improvement to the Hilarius selections following a correction to the valuation of the CSL component

The same correction improves the standing of the Over 20% EPS Growth group

A summary of the portfolios appears at the end of the uploaded file

Since this is a research project, not a competition, I seek only to learn why the buy and hold "portfolios" have behaved differently to each other and also to share in possible lessons that might help us all in our approaches to future selecting (but realising that all of us have different objectives and risk profiles)

I should also note that 007 has a partly traded outcome (reported elsewhere), but I've valued the original selections for comparison purposes

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

glad_tidings_report_71116-1279804.unkGood Evening Ody

I hope the file upload below will save you some time

It values the portfolios as at various dates including 31st October and today 16th November 2007

There are three corrections to the previously published end October chart

XAO should have been up 7.31 % from 15th June to end October and is now up 3.31% (a 4% correction since the end of the month, which I believe justifies my real life flight to cash, at least in the very short term)

There is an improvement to the Hilarius selections following a correction to the valuation of the CSL component

The same correction improves the standing of the Over 20% EPS Growth group

A summary of the portfolios appears at the end of the uploaded file

Since this is a research project, not a competition, I seek only to learn why the buy and hold "portfolios" have behaved differently to each other and also to share in possible lessons that might help us all in our approaches to future selecting (but realising that all of us have different objectives and risk profiles)

I should also note that 007 has a partly traded outcome (reported elsewhere), but I've valued the original selections for comparison purposes

With Best Wishes

Hilarius



(Message edited by Hilarius on November 16, 2007)


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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hilarius
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To All Project Participants

Here is the Latest Portfolio Valuation at today's date as well as previous valuations (approximately monthly)

I would be grateful if all participants could check their entries in this file and advise any defects in the valuations. Comments on individual stocks would be helpful also ... in the light of the original buy and hold objective

Please note the summary at the end of the file ... and please confirm you have been able to read your valuation

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

application/vnd.ms-excelResearch Portfolio Valuations
glad tidings report 71116.xls (72.7 k)



I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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lafee
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Hilarius,

You cannot possibly learn anything from the static buy and hold results. It is a snapshot in time and nothing more. It is unlikely to be the same again.

A study of how one adapts would be much more constructive but more difficult to analyse

With freedom to trade without restriction over a lengthy time period is the only way any meaningful analysis could be generated by this 'experiment'.

Cheers Lafee


Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

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hilarius
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Friday, November 16, 2007 - 09:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good Evening Lafee

I respectfully disagree

In a controlled experiment it is very helpful to minimise the number of variables being measured

In this case we are measuring the ability to make selections at one point of time using criteria that have value which lasts

This is particularly true for selections made in a Weinstein Stage 2 uptrend

If one can develop skills in selecting in ways where the selection value persists over a longer period one can aim to move from monitoring to greater concentration on selecting. This is an experiment in selecting for longer terms.

There will always be a need for monitoring, but that is not what this experiment is about. That said comments on positives and negatives on particular stock performances were invited at the outset and remain potentially useful sources of insight

By designing another project that replicates real life the values inherent in the original selections would be lost in a forest of confusing activity

This way the original selection process and inherent values of that selection process remain the principal focus

In this particular case I would not like to confuse that original objective with other issues

In saying all that it has been tremendously valuable to have a few traders provide their results by way of contrast and I appreciate their efforts also

The issue remains for me ... how does one go about making selections that have more than transient value?

That was the whole point

With Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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philr
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Lafee

I agree with Hilarius (did I just say that ) the original idea of this comp was to pick and hold a number of stocks until Christmas then see who was the winner. A few interlopers were allowed in along the way forex and a couple who change every few weeks.

I would have preferred everyone to be off a level playing field but this is thew way its worked out.

If you want to adjust your selections every week or so then go in the weekly comp. thats what its for.

I really think this one should have been a buy and hold experiment.


Phil

** Let blockheads read what blockheads wrote.
Warren Buffett

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ody
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HILARIUS:

I am far advanced on a preliminary survey and shall produce some sort of "interim" report tomorrow. I have worked from the material you sent me before, but everything is based on the situation that I could study after the close of today's trading. So the survey will be up to the minute in that respect.

The interim report will enable us to decide where to go from there. My feeling is that another survey of this kind in December will give us the best indications, as that was the intended date, and I find also that there are some problems that we need to try and sort out. Until tomorrow!


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hilarius
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Hello Phil

It appears there was a share consolidation and also a code change to MPODA recently

These events confused my lookup table

After adjusting for the new values your Dollars now become $ 1,078,900

The values used are now :-

June 15 Jul 27 Aug 31 Sep 28 Oct 31 Nov 16
1.250 1.450 1.125 0.900 1.025 0.950

I hope this deals with the situation, and I will reflect it in the next chart

Thanks for the check of the figures

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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ody
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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 11:36 am: Edit Post Delete Post Print Post View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)
THE "BUY AND HOLD" PROJECT: INTERIM REPORT (BASED ON 16 NOVEMBER SHARE PRICES)

Please note: as I think this, being a RESULTS REPORT, is of general interest, I have posted it both on Our Daily Bread and Glad Tidings. Specialised and detailed discussion will hopefully return the matter to Glad Tidings, which is specifically set up for the project.

OVERALL: EXTREMELY GOOD RESULTS! SEE BELOW.

INTRODUCTION
1. The "Buy and hold" project commenced on "Wednesday June 13 of this year" (Hilarius, who commendably initiated the idea). The original plan was to let participants "buy" (on paper) 10 stocks each worth $100,000, which they would then "buy and hold" for six months. The project would in principle produce potentially useful information if we knew the exact purpose and method of investment of each participant (which we don't know, but this info may still be obtained if they are willing to supply it). There were immediate differences in this regard. For example, Rudy's 10 stocks had actually not been selected for the project. He mentioned them as possibly desirable BUYS for himself, and as the selection was rightly much admired, it came to provide a first basis for the experiment (not at Rudy's suggestion). Others did select their choices for the project, myself included: I did not select a set of stocks I would myself have wished to hold as a portfolio, but was interested to see what would happen if I bought and held 10 stocks based on very high EPS growth (real and projected), with very potent TA graphs at the point of purchase. So from the very beginning quite different purposes existed in the "purchasing", but we do not in all instances know just what they were. As well, some of the buyers were not necessarily buy and hold people, and some of us might actually find 6 months congenial while others don't. For BH purposes it is not a long period, either. Considerations like these should be borne in mind when looking at the results so far.

2. More importantly, the value of the results came to be greatly impaired by the fact that what was set up to be a BH project soon came to be something quite different, inasmuch as a number of participants did not engage in a Buy and Hold programme, but traded short-term instead, or were in other ways permitted to deviate from the conditions which should have remained binding on all. If the results of these participants were to be compared as though they ARE in any ways comparable, the project would be a complete failure, as in any experiment of this kind (and science would certainly dictate that) the same conditions must apply to all. Comparisons between BH investors and short-term traders, for example, are perhaps suitable for a completely different experiment: but they cannot be usefully made if the majority of those taking part saw themselves, and were, participating in a BH experiment.

In what follows I have dealt with those who did NOT meet the original conditions in a separate, later section (II), with special attention those who only PARTLY deviated, for example by not buying 10 stocks, but being partly in cash. Their portfolios can at least TO AN EXTENT be compared, though of course not properly.

METHOD OF CALCULATING RESULTS
What I was interested in was to find out which stocks were held by BH participants, and to see how those stocks - and the the portfolios of which they formed part - had performed. Also, what conclusions one could perhaps draw from a comparison between the results. Often, in cases like these, one considers - or tries to consider - factors which have made certain portfolios or stocks rise more than others. I should still like to engage in such analysis, but would really like to know more about what strategies the participants saw themselves as adopting, as that would be very useful info to have, for all concerned. However, the results by themselves will perhaps suggest, very tentatively, a number of things about what worked out well and what did not, at least for this short (and rather arbitrary) period. Depending on extensive consideration of the various complex factors, not least what was intended, one might at a later stage possibly come to some valuable conclusions.

But for all that to happen we first of all need to have a set of results that we can have faith in, and this is where I struck a difficulty. The outcome of what I have found has in fact been a considerable surprise to me, and that is why I feel I must explain precisely what I have done.

I could not take the results as they stand today (as per the end of 16 November) back to 13 June without a great deal of difficulty. WHAT WE WANT TO KNOW, I FELT, IS HOW THESE STOCKS HAVE PERFORMED OVER TIME, I.E. HOW MUCH VALUE THEY HAVE ADDED, OR TAKEN AWAY. As a calculation for the exact period 13 June - 16 November was very difficult for me (with limited time and arithmetical skills), I decided to do something more simple.

Stock Doctor, whose calculations are known for their precision, enables one to work out very easily by what percentage a stock has risen or fallen over a period of 6 months. It could not do it, working back from 16 November, for a period of 5 months (i.e. to 16 June, which would have suited the experiment almost exactly), but it COULD do it back to 16 May. I decided to do this, in the full knowledge that I have thus acted as though people chose their shares a month earlier than in fact they did. From what I have seen, however, I would argue that this does not affect the results greatly on a comparative basis, and that there is no unfairness in the procedure. ALL of us would have considered how the stocks were performing in the recent past when we selected before 13 June, and the full period from then until now IS covered: the only "extra" factor is that the start date has been made a month earlier. I don't think, either, that something very shocking happened between 16 May and 13 June. If someone else wishes to calculate the results as from 13 June that can still be done - but I found it a laborious task and abandoned it. IN DECEMBER, WE COULD HAVE AN EXACT 6 MONTHS CALCULATION, USING STOCK DOCTOR AT THE CLOSE OF TRADE ON THE 13TH, WITHOUT *ANY* DISTORTION POSSIBLY ARISING FROM THE EXTRA MONTH I HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS CASE. BUT I WOULD ASK PEOPLE TO BEAR IN MIND THAT THE WHOLE EXERCISE IS THEORETICAL ANYWAY.

The result staggered me in that my figures would seem to suggest certain major discrepancies from those apparently produced by Hilarius, and I don't as yet know why. This will hopefully become obvious before long!

Below I produce the results as so far found, for the period 16 May - 16 November (6 months). From everything I have said it will be clear that THIS IS NOT, AND NEVER WAS, A COMPETITION, AND SHOULD NOT EVEN REMOTELY BE SEEN AS IDENTIFYING "THE BEST INVESTORS". IT CANNOT DO SO AND DOESN'T. EVEN THE FACT THAT SOME VERY GOOD RESULTS WERE OBTAINED BY TRADERS (SECTION II) RATHER THAN INVESTORS SHOULD DISPEL ANY THOUGHT THAT CONCLUSIONS ABOUT A HIERARCHY OF SKILLS CAN BE DRAWN.
----------------------------------------------------------
SECTION I: RESULTS OBTAINED IF WE CONSIDER THOSE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT 10 SHARES AND ASSUME THEY WERE ALL HELD OVER THE PERIOD 16 MAY - 16 NOVEMBER.

Note: dividends are NOT included - these are ONLY share prices

The order of the participants is arbitrary (simply that of Hilarius's spreadsheet).

(1) RUDY: ASX 16.2%, BHP 32.9%, DJS -6.1%, IMD 44.1%, MND 21.1%, JBH 72.3%, MRM 20.4%, REF -7.6%, RIO 44.7%, HVN 29.7%.

TOTAL RUDY: +29.7%.

(2) RESILLENT 1: CCP -45.2, HST 23.3, MFS -23.9, MLB -6.7, MND 21.1, NUF 18.4, SRX 45.2, TGR 14.4, WBA 24.8, WOR 56.6

TOTAL RESILLENT 1: +12.8%.

(3) PHILR: SDL 110, CMO -11.3, CVN 273.3, NAV 35.9, DRT 3.5, MPO 22.5, SLX - 24.4, PNA 100, AGS -26.5, RML -27.1.

TOTAL PHILR: +45.5%.

(4) ODY: CAB -15.5, CCP -45.2, IPL 44.3, JBH 72.3, LEI 44.8, MMS -6.38, MLB -6.7, MRM 20.4, SMX 33.0, STS 68.1.

TOTAL ODY: +20.9.

(5) MRLUNCH: AAR 1.1, CFE -15.1, CNM 220.7, CPN 42.8, DIO 81.0, EVG 44.4, IGC -37.1, FML 78.5, SDL 160.5, VMY 31.8.

TOTAL MRLUNCH: +60.8%.

(6) STOCKY: PNA 100, CFE -15.1, TTY 122.2, EXM 94.4, MXL -51.5, MAR 28, MRE -32.5, OEL -1.4, EBI -9.9, AAE -75.5.

TOTAL STOCKY: +15.8%.

(7) GOHARD: AWC -10.5, AXA 2.5, BSL -17.8, CPU -6.7, DRT 3.5, ORI -12.2, OST 6.5, OXR 21.1, WES 4.4, ZFX -12.7.

TOTAL GOHARD: -2.1%.

(8) PETERLOH: SGL 14.2, MGX 182.1, AGM -32.2, MCR 9.3, PEM -15.5, HSP -8.9, TLS [very close to peterloh's TLSCA, which SD doesn't include - actually TLS did a little better] -3.3, TTS -21.5, JST 35.7, BOL -28.5.

TOTAL PETERLOH: +13%.

(9) HILARIUS: AOE 21.4, CSL 7.8, PNA 100, QGC -44.2, RSP 48.4, SHG 110.9, SLX -24.4, SMY 12.2, TGR 14.4, WOR 56.6.

TOTAL HILARIUS: +30.3%

-------------------------------------------------------

SECION II: PARTICIPANTS WHO DID NOT BUY AND HOLD ACCORDING TO THE ORIGINAL PLAN

007 provides a puzzle in buying 9 stocks and having two (identical??) separate amounts in cash. The stocks performed well, as follows, but there aren't 10 of them: APG -35.2, BSA -1.7, CTO 21.3, MND 21.1, MGX 182.1, ORG 1.6, PPC -3.6, SDM 34.6, TEY 21.7, Cash, Cash. If I average out the stocks ONLY, I get + 26.8%.

SURFERDUDE provides a similar puzzle in buying 8 stocks and placing two identical amounts in cash. The stocks performed well, as follows, but there weren't 10 of them: MND 21.1, PMM 64.0, WOR 56.6, BHP 32.9, SMX 33.0, OKN 7.8, WHG -12.2, KZL -0.1. If I average out the stocks ONLY, I get +25.38%.

VERMANTE bought just one stock: PDN. TOTAL RETURN: -19.7%.

LAFEE and SMALLWORLD traded. Their results are strong, but simply fall outside a "Buy and hold project". I also do not have the time or skill to go through all the steps involved.
-------------------------------------------------------

I should now be very keen to learn from the participants, and of course Hilarius, where I may have made errors in what I have produced. I'd hope to be able to produce a survey in the same manner (using Stock Doctor) based on 13 December, when the report will cover a totally real and "LEGITIMATE" period of 6 months (i.e. from the actual starting date).

PLEASE NOTE: ANY ERRORS IN THE ARITHMETIC ARE UNINTENDED, BUT EASILY MADE, EVEN IF ONE TRIES HARD TO AVOID THEM. I OFFER APOLOGIES FOR ANY ERRORS IN ADVANCE.


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hilarius
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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 11:08 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody

I just want to say a heartfelt vote of thanks for the spirit with which you have entered into assessing the buy and hold project and the energy you have so generously applied to the task

You are absolutely right in saying that the comments of the buy and and hold participants would indeed throw further light on their selection processes, and that would enable clearer measurement of their outcomes versus their aims

Probably too we may all have something to learn from the two very successful traders if they were able to help us all to trade as they do. However, as we all know only too well the transfer of trading skills is probably one of the hardest things of all

Since active trading was, as you rightly say, not part of the original plan I will concentrate on the Buy and Hold portfolios in what I do now in response, Ody, to your most helpful report

First of all I will do measurement for exactly the same period as you have done, to see whether my methodology comes close to yours

If there are no methodology differences that will be a useful step forward?

Ody, discovering what works and what doesn't in selecting is something that you and Rudy have devoted great energy to, and you have given of your time and skills generously to others in this Forum

I think it will be good to discover which portfolios have some approximation to your well established standards

Those that fall short can perhaps then be reviewed to see what factors caused the under-performance.

I am not suggesting you should bear the burden of further analysis beyond what you have already proposed (which is excellent) but I certainly think it would be good if the participants would make some comments or ask some questions that we could all share in viewing, and then answering as time and opportunity allow

I would like to think that by Christmas we can summarise those strategies which worked, and those which may require revision and further work.

Again, Ody, many thanks and I hope having written your most useful and constructive report you will enjoy a peaceful and happy weekend.

With Very Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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ody
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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 01:38 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



CORRECTIONS for the Buy and Hold Survey (my post 1601)

Hilarius has been kind and attentive enough to draw, by means of queries, my attention to two mistakes he has already discovered, and which in fairness to all I feel I must immediately correct, as things like these must be done scrupulously.

Rudy: I mistakenly copied the HVN number twice rather than state the average, which should be 26.8%. Sorry Rudy - a notch lower for the total.

Philr: I looked under the wrong stock for SDL, the figure for which is not 110 but an even bigger 160.5. The result is that Phil's total gets boosted to a whopping 50.6%. Sorry Phil - a notch up!

Apologies allround, and thanks to Hilarius. Any other mistakes of this kind will be corrected just as soon as they are brought to my attention. I hate inaccuracy, and not least in reporting what others have achieved.

As I said before: mistakes like these are very easily made, or at least by me.


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smallworld
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Saturday, November 17, 2007 - 04:11 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



When Ody and Hilarius came up with different numbers, I got interested, especially with returns up to 60% for Mr Lunch. So I decided to put these trades into my software which automatically tracks performances. I'll divided the results into two postings. The first post will be the overall results with charts, the 2nd post with returns based on individual trades.
I found Ody's figures incorrect in some instances. for example in Mr Lunch Port VMT went from 19c to 14.5c which is a drop of 23.68% rather than 31.8% (VMY??) and SDL went from 42c to 49.5c (a rise of 17.86% rather than 160.5%). The end result is quite different, and if not corrected, will give rise to quite wrong conclusion.
Hilarius, you have also had a mistake in inputing the entry price for MPO (Philr's) the correct closing price on 15/6 should be 1.25 instead of 0.25.
The end result up to this weekend is as follows
Rudy 19%
Surferdude 12.3%
PeterLoh 6.7%
Gohard -4.2%
Mr Lunch -9.8%
Hilarius 26.4%
resillent 15.3%
philr 8.04%
Ody 6.3%
Stocky -2.5%
Below shows the portfolio values of each participant is shown below: The charts are particularly interesting, with draw down pretty much in sync with the index. What conclusion can you draw?



Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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smallworld
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Rudy
TickerEntryExit% changeProfitSharesCum. profit
IMD15/06/200716/11/200749.49%49494.9567340.149494.95
1.4852.2249.49%
MRM15/06/200716/11/2007-3.04%-3037.9750632.946456.98
1.9751.915-3.04%
HVN15/06/200716/11/200731.26%31262.1419417.577719.11
5.156.7631.26%
DJS15/06/200716/11/2007-5.77%-5769.2319230.871949.88
5.24.9-5.77%
REF15/06/200716/11/2007-14.36%-14363.6418181.857586.25
5.54.71-14.36%
JBH15/06/200716/11/200747.55%47549.029803.92105135.27
10.215.0547.55%
MND15/06/200716/11/200714.11%14109.596849.31119244.86
14.616.6614.11%
BHP15/06/200716/11/200721.03%21029.412941.18140274.27
3441.1521.03%
ASX15/06/200716/11/200715.36%15359.342053.39155633.61
48.756.1815.36%
RIO15/06/200716/11/200734.71%34712.521026.69190346.13
97.4131.2134.71%
Resillent
TickerEntryExit% changeProfitSharesCum. profit
WBA15/06/200716/11/200733.59%33593.757812533593.75
1.281.7133.59%
TGR15/06/200716/11/200719.87%19873.8231545.753467.57
3.173.819.87%
SRX15/06/200716/11/200753.18%53179.1928901.7106646.76
3.465.353.18%
HST15/06/200716/11/200727.78%27777.7827777.8134424.54
3.64.627.78%
MLB15/06/200716/11/2007-10.80%-10796.9225706.9123627.62
3.893.47-10.80%
MFS15/06/200716/11/2007-15.09%-15094.3417152.7108533.28
5.834.95-15.09%
CCP15/06/200716/11/2007-48.10%-48096.888650.5260436.4
11.566-48.10%
NUF15/06/200716/11/200720.34%20337.797037.380774.19
14.2117.120.34%
MND15/06/200716/11/200714.11%14109.596849.3194883.78
14.616.6614.11%
WOR15/06/200716/11/200758.82%58817.463437.61153701.24
29.0946.258.82%
Philr
TickerEntryExit% changeProfitSharesCum. profit
CMO15/06/200716/11/2007-28.57%-28571.432.86E+06-28571.43
0.0350.025-28.57%
CVN15/06/200716/11/2007173.17%173170.73487805144599.3
0.2050.56173.17%
SDL15/06/200716/11/200717.86%17857.14238095162456.45
0.420.49517.86%
RML15/06/200716/11/2007-40.00%-40000153846122456.45
0.650.39-40.00%
PNA15/06/200716/11/200747.14%47142.86142857169599.3
0.71.0347.14%
NAV15/06/200716/11/2007-12.27%-12272.7390909.1157326.57
1.10.965-12.27%
MPO15/06/200716/11/2007-22.40%-2240080000134926.57
1.250.97-22.40%
DRT15/06/200716/11/2007-1.04%-1036.2751813.5133890.3
1.931.91-1.04%
AGS15/06/200716/11/2007-20.87%-20873.7948543.7113016.52
2.061.63-20.87%
SLX15/06/200716/11/2007-32.52%-32520.338130.0880496.19
12.38.3-32.52%
Ody
TickerEntryExit% changeProfitSharesCum. profit
MRM15/06/200716/11/2007-3.04%-3037.9750632.9-3037.97
1.9751.915-3.04%
STS15/06/200716/11/200728.47%28472.2234722.225434.25
2.883.728.47%
MLB15/06/200716/11/2007-10.80%-10796.9225706.914637.33
3.893.47-10.80%
MMS15/06/200716/11/2007-15.38%-15384.6219230.8-747.28
5.24.4-15.38%
SMX15/06/200716/11/200724.35%24352.3317271.223605.05
5.797.224.35%
JBH15/06/200716/11/200747.55%47549.029803.9271154.07
10.215.0547.55%
CCP15/06/200716/11/2007-48.10%-48096.888650.5223057.19
11.566-48.10%
CAB15/06/200716/11/2007-17.67%-17665.137680.495392.05
13.0210.72-17.67%
LEI15/06/200716/11/200730.41%30413.412234.6435805.46
44.7558.3630.41%
IPL15/06/200716/11/200727.24%27241.871414.4363047.33
70.789.9627.24%
Mr Lunch
TickerEntryExit% changeProfitSharesCum. profit
FML15/06/200716/11/2007-4.76%-4761.9952381-4761.9
0.1050.1-4.76%
AAR15/06/200716/11/2007-25.00%-25000833333-29761.9
0.120.09-25.00%
EVG15/06/200716/11/20075.41%5405.41540541-24356.5
0.1850.1955.41%
CNM15/06/200716/11/2007-10.53%-10526.32526316-34882.81
0.190.17-10.53%
VMT15/06/200716/11/2007-23.68%-23684.21526316-58567.03
0.190.145-23.68%
CPN15/06/200716/11/2007-26.47%-26470.59294118-85037.62
0.340.25-26.47%
IGC15/06/200716/11/2007-38.03%-38028.17281690-123065.79
0.3550.22-38.03%
SDL15/06/200716/11/200717.86%17857.14238095-105208.64
0.420.49517.86%
CFE15/06/200716/11/2007-39.26%-39259.26148148-144467.9
0.6750.41-39.26%
DIO15/06/200716/11/200747.42%47421.0976982.3-97046.81
1.2991.91547.42%
Stocky
TickerEntryExit% changeProfitSharesCum. profit
EXM15/06/200716/11/200752.17%52173.914.35E+0652173.91
0.0230.03552.17%
MXL15/06/200716/11/2007-47.46%-47457.631.69E+064716.29
0.0590.031-47.46%
OEL15/06/200716/11/20076.06%6060.6130303010776.89
0.330.356.06%
AAE15/06/200716/11/2007-73.73%-73731.34298507-62954.45
0.3350.088-73.73%
MAR15/06/200716/11/2007-6.41%-6410.26256410-69364.71
0.390.365-6.41%
CFE15/06/200716/11/2007-39.26%-39259.26148148-108623.97
0.6750.41-39.26%
PNA15/06/200716/11/200747.14%47142.86142857-61481.11
0.71.0347.14%
TTY15/06/200716/11/200762.87%62871.2999009.91390.17
1.011.64562.87%
EBI15/06/200716/11/2007-12.16%-12162.1627027-10771.99
3.73.25-12.16%
MRE15/06/200716/11/2007-13.60%-13598.913736.3-24370.89
7.286.29-13.60%
Gohard
TickerEntryExit% changeProfitSharesCum. profit
DRT15/06/200716/11/2007-1.04%-1036.2751813.5-1036.27
1.931.91-1.04%
OXR15/06/200716/11/200712.86%12857.1428571.411820.87
3.53.9512.86%
OST15/06/200716/11/20071.84%1843.321536113664.19
6.516.631.84%
AXA15/06/200716/11/2007-3.44%-3443.8812755.110220.31
7.847.57-3.44%
AWC15/06/200716/11/2007-14.43%-14430.3812658.2-4210.07
7.96.76-14.43%
BSL15/06/200716/11/2007-2.17%-2165.359842.52-6375.42
10.169.94-2.17%
CPU15/06/200716/11/2007-6.73%-6726.468968.61-13101.88
11.1510.4-6.73%
ZFX15/06/200716/11/2007-17.21%-17213.565379.24-30315.43
18.5915.39-17.21%
ORI15/06/200716/11/2007-5.22%-5224.133370.41-35539.57
29.6728.12-5.22%
WES15/06/200716/11/2007-5.64%-5638.122359.05-41177.69
42.3940-5.64%
Peter
TickerEntryExit% changeProfitSharesCum. profit
SGL15/06/200716/11/20070.00%02500000
0.40.40.00%
AGM15/06/200716/11/2007-14.53%-14534.88116279-14534.88
0.860.735-14.53%
MGX15/06/200716/11/2007128.09%128085.1185106.4113550.22
1.1752.68128.09%
TLSCA15/06/200716/11/2007-6.57%-6567.1629850.7106983.06
3.353.13-6.57%
BOL15/06/200716/11/2007-24.43%-24425.2928735.682557.77
3.482.63-24.43%
JST15/06/200716/11/200731.14%31143.5524330.9113701.32
4.115.3931.14%
PEM15/06/200716/11/2007-22.80%-22795.721505.490905.62
4.653.59-22.80%
MCR15/06/200716/11/2007-1.67%-1673.6420920.589231.98
4.784.7-1.67%
TTS15/06/200716/11/2007-19.13%-19126.822079070105.16
4.813.89-19.13%
HSP15/06/200716/11/2007-2.71%-2707.5818050.567397.58
5.545.39-2.71%
Hilarius
TickerEntryExit% changeProfitSharesCum. profit
PNA15/06/200716/11/200747.14%47142.8614285747142.86
0.71.0347.14%
SHG15/06/200716/11/200750.43%50434.7886956.597577.64
1.151.7350.43%
RSP15/06/200716/11/200721.58%21578.9552631.6119156.59
1.92.3121.58%
QGC15/06/200716/11/200732.51%32510.2941152.3151666.87
2.433.2232.51%
AOE15/06/200716/11/20075.50%5498.2834364.3157165.16
2.913.075.50%
TGR15/06/200716/11/200719.87%19873.8231545.7177038.97
3.173.819.87%
SMY15/06/200716/11/200748.86%48860.7625316.5225899.73
3.955.8848.86%
SLX15/06/200716/11/2007-32.52%-32520.338130.08193379.4
12.38.3-32.52%
WOR15/06/200716/11/200758.82%58817.463437.61252196.87
29.0946.258.82%
CSL15/06/200716/11/200712.38%12382.723436.78264579.58
29.09732.712.38%
Surferdude
TickerEntryExit% changeProfitSharesCum. profit
WHG15/06/200716/11/2007-14.74%-14741.0439840.6-14741.04
2.512.14-14.74%
OKN15/06/200716/11/20077.82%7815.2817762-6925.76
5.636.077.82%
SMX15/06/200716/11/200724.35%24352.3317271.217426.57
5.797.224.35%
KZL15/06/200716/11/2007-12.48%-12482.2714184.44944.3
7.056.17-12.48%
PMM15/06/200716/11/200723.74%23742.6911695.928686.99
8.5510.5823.74%
MND15/06/200716/11/200714.11%14109.596849.3142796.58
14.616.6614.11%
WOR15/06/200716/11/200758.82%58817.463437.61101614.04
29.0946.258.82%
BHP15/06/200716/11/200721.03%21029.412941.18122643.45
3441.1521.03%


(Message edited by smallworld on November 17, 2007)


Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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hilarius
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Smallworld

Thanks for the input

MPO and other issues had been noted and Ody and I are in the process of compiling an agreed summary

It will now be a three way exercise with any additional corrections from your work included

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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smallworld
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Back to my own portfolio
TickerTradeDatePriceEx. dateEx. PriceSharesCostValue
VCNLong1/11/20070.557/11/20070.575181818100,033104512
MCOLong1/11/20070.46/11/20070.39250000100,03397467
MUNLong5/11/20070.8556/11/20070.815116959100,03395289
AIILong5/11/20070.348/11/20070.355294118100,033104379
HZLLong6/11/20070.657/11/20070.7153846100,033107659
AVXLong7/11/20070.7558/11/20070.74132450100,03397980
AAMLong7/11/20070.318/11/20070.33322581100,033106419
BDLLong7/11/20070.378/11/20070.365270270100,03398616
CRELong7/11/20070.478/11/20070.485212766100,033103159
LNGLong7/11/20070.7358/11/20070.76136054100,033103368
GCXLong9/11/20071.71512/11/20071.7558309100,033102008
CRELong9/11/20070.49512/11/20070.48202020100,03396937
AIILong9/11/20070.3812/11/20070.37263158100,03397335
ADXLong9/11/20070.2512/11/20070.23400000100,03391967
GUJLong12/11/20070.6413/11/20070.7156250100,033109342
PLVLong12/11/20072.0613/11/20072.1948543.7100,034106278
NMSLong12/11/20071.23513/11/20071.21580971.7100,03398348
NGFLong12/11/20070.4913/11/20070.475204082100,03396906
MIKLong14/11/20070.81515/11/20070.875122699100,033107329
GUJLong14/11/20070.70515/11/20070.795141844100,033112733
EXMLong15/11/20070.03916/11/20070.0352.56E+06100,03389711
GSFOpen Long16/11/20070.07116/11/20070.0721.41E+06100,033101408

Ending capital = 1.74M
cash = 1.638M




Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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smallworld
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comparison of Hilarius histogram and my line graph (see grey vertical cursor line)
Hilarius
I have made a comparison between yours and my results as of 31/10. Your last histogram
Everything is in agreement except your own result. I have 1.245M for yourself and you have somehow devalue your to 1.137M in post 3198




Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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ody
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CORRECTIONS FOR THE BUY AND HOLD PROJECT (2)

It is a good thing to have other people checking one's figures, so long as we are measuring the same things. For mrlunch, SDL must (as for philr) become 160.5 (not 110), and in the case of Hilarius, I noted the right stock, QGC, but the wrong price: the correct figure is 82.9, and not -44.2, which is, in fact, the figure for QRS! Apologies to both people, both of whom will be on a higher overall figure as a result. These are still to be calculated for revision.

Fortunately it does not look as though many more corrections will be needed, given what I have measured and the information I have used.

I note these in the meantime. At a later stage, when all corrections are agreed on, I shall correct the original version.


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smallworld
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Measuring the same things indeed.
Just different time period, and what difference a month can make. By all means, do your analysis as if it started a month early, just bear in mind that every participant knew how the stocks he chose were doing in the month leading up to it even if he didnt chosen them because of the price action.
And when you finish, you can use the figures I supplied (they are entirely verifiable) and tell us what one month hindsight was worth.
(Post publishing edit)
Ody, Since you believe you pretty much got your figures right. I can make that comparsion of what moving back one month is worth)
Rudy originally 19% but assumed to be 29.7%, diff +10.7%
Surferdude 12.3%
PeterLoh 6.7% assumed 13% diff + 6.3%
Gohard -4.2% assumed -2.1% diff + 2.1%
Mr Lunch -9.8% assumed 60.8% diff + 70.6%
Hilarius 26.4% assumed 30.3% diff + 3.9%
resillent 15.3% assumed 12.8% diff -2.5%
philr 8.04% assumed 45.5% diff +37.46%
Ody 6.3% assumed 20.9% diff + 27.2%
Stocky -2.5% assumed 15.8% diff + 18.3%

This is an average of 19.34% difference and I'll have to disagree with Ody's statement "I would argue that this does not affect the results greatly on a comparative basis, and that there is no unfairness in the procedure" I dont think I'll elborate the reasons for my disagreement as the facts speak for themselves.

(Message edited by smallworld on November 17, 2007)

(Message edited by smallworld on November 17, 2007)


Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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ody
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Smallworld:

You are quite right: ideally one should start at the correct date, of course. But I was quite frank about my reason for not doing so, and that reason is genuine: I could only readily measure 6 months, not 5! Next month, I am aiming to do this same thing again for the full 6 months period, and then the figures I'll produce will end on 13 December and thus automatically go back to 13 June, as they should. That means that the distortion which you point to will disappear.

I think it is a good thing that you should point out that that first month actually DID make a difference, and sometimes significantly, even though in truth all people were treated equally. My comment was complacent, and based on the assumption that we were clearly not yet correcting, in May, so that I assumed - wrongly, as it turns out - that all people would have been affected in much the same way. Next month, in any case, the "surplus" month will be no longer there.

I don't want to "complain" personally and it doesn't really matter, but looking at your interesting figures, I should have thought that the difference in my case is 14.6, i.e. 20.9 - 6.3. Since you in other cases DEDUCT the lower figure why would you in this case ADD it, so that you get 27.2? I can't follow that reasoning. I am sure you don't mean that figure to be right! Am I correct? I don't imply that 14.6% isn't significant - but it's not as bad as 27.2%. Which would also affect the figure for the group as a whole a bit. I really should be much obliged if you could confirm that that that 27.2% is mistaken, even though my ego is not offended by it. (I placed no ego in the selection, to begin with.)


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smallworld
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Ody,
I dont and haven't doubted your reasons. I am just genuinely interested in and surprised by the difference that the "front running" month has made. This is quite an exciting discovery and maybe it could also be useful as well. I suspect that some people consciously or subconsciously chosen their stocks because of this price appreciation. In addition, that in some cases prior performance didn't provide a reliable forecast for future performance, none whatsoever.
And I have singled you out and have treated your figures differently, although it was unintentional. it should be 14.6% as you suggested and the average should be 17.94% instead.
I dont know what further analysis you were planning to do. I am interested in the shape of the equity curve as much as I care about the raw number, as we have to live through everyday on that curve and any point on that curve will become our final performance if we so chose to exit.
I have added all the equity curves together and divided by 10 (the number of bnh) and compared that with putting all 1M on XJO, below is the chart of comparison, red for XJO and blue for the blemin lot. It is quite interesting, though not unpredictable that on average we mirror quite closely the action of XJO and the final performance is very much in the same ballpark. Though we took a worse hit than the index in August. I attrib that to the more volatile portfolios of Mr Lunch and Philr. I remain sceptical about holding large amount of baby caps for the long term.


While Philr prefers everybody doing the buy and hold only. I couldn't be happier with the way things have worked out. Now we have two set of data, 1 set for buy and hold, and another set for trading. One set can always act as a control for the other set. I still believe in the comments that I made in post 656 As times goes by, I'm sure Ody and others will add to them.


Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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ody
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Sunday, November 18, 2007 - 09:53 am

REVISED RESULTS (18 NOVEMBER) FOR THE BUY AND HOLD PROJECT: PERIOD MAY 16 - NOVEMBER 16

PLEASE NOTE TWO IMPORTANT POINTS:

(1) The revision (based on errors spotted by others) produces new figures in the case of Rudy, Philr, and Hilarius, as per my previous short posts announcing mistakes in those cases. The figure for mrlunch was, in the event, correct.

(2) YET MORE IMPORTANTLY, WORK DONE BY BOTH HILARIUS AND SMALLWORLD HAS REVEALED THAT IF THE START-DATE HAD BEEN TAKEN TO BE 15 JUNE, THEN THE RESULTS WOULD HAVE BEEN *DRASTICALLY* DIFFERENT - FAR MORE SO THAN I HAD EXPECTED. THE MONTH 15 MAY-15 JUNE WAS ACTUALLY A BAD ONE FOR MANY OF THE STOCKS CHOSEN, AND THIS MEANS THAT THE "REAL" RESULTS FOR 15 JUNE-16 NOVEMBER WOULD HAVE BEEN LESS IMPRESSIVE (SOMETIMES MUCH LESS SO!) THAN IF ONE TAKES 16 MAY AS A STARTING POINT. FURTHER NEWS SHOWING THE DIFFERENCE WILL BE POSTED SOON.
----------------------------------------------------------

THE "BUY AND HOLD" PROJECT: INTERIM REPORT (BASED ON 16 NOVEMBER SHARE PRICES). First posted 17 November, REVISED figures as per 18 November.

NOTE, 18 NOVEMBER. The figures below have been corrected, using Stock Doctor prices but revised where I made mistakes identified by others. Apologies to all concerned. There are new figures for Rudy, Philr, and Hilarius.
-----------------------------------------------------------
REVISIONS FOR RUDY, PHILR AND HILARIUS ARE INCLUDED BELOW. OTHERWISE THE DOCUMENT HAS BEEN LEFT UNTOUCHED. HERE GOES:

Please note: as I think this, being a RESULTS REPORT, is of general interest, I have posted it both on Our Daily Bread and Glad Tidings. Specialised and detailed discussion will hopefully return the matter to Glad Tidings, which is specifically set up for the project.

OVERALL: EXTREMELY GOOD RESULTS! SEE BELOW.

INTRODUCTION
1. The "Buy and hold" project commenced on "Wednesday June 13 of this year" (Hilarius, who commendably initiated the idea). The original plan was to let participants "buy" (on paper) 10 stocks each worth $100,000, which they would then "buy and hold" for six months. The project would in principle produce potentially useful information if we knew the exact purpose and method of investment of each participant (which we don't know, but this info may still be obtained if they are willing to supply it). There were immediate differences in this regard. For example, Rudy's 10 stocks had actually not been selected for the project. He mentioned them as possibly desirable BUYS for himself, and as the selection was rightly much admired, it came to provide a first basis for the experiment (not at Rudy's suggestion). Others did select their choices for the project, myself included: I did not select a set of stocks I would myself have wished to hold as a portfolio, but was interested to see what would happen if I bought and held 10 stocks based on very high EPS growth (real and projected), with very potent TA graphs at the point of purchase. So from the very beginning quite different purposes existed in the "purchasing", but we do not in all instances know just what they were. As well, some of the buyers were not necessarily buy and hold people, and some of us might actually find 6 months congenial while others don't. For BH purposes it is not a long period, either. Considerations like these should be borne in mind when looking at the results so far.

2. More importantly, the value of the results came to be greatly impaired by the fact that what was set up to be a BH project soon came to be something quite different, inasmuch as a number of participants did not engage in a Buy and Hold programme, but traded short-term instead, or were in other ways permitted to deviate from the conditions which should have remained binding on all. If the results of these participants were to be compared as though they ARE in any ways comparable, the project would be a complete failure, as in any experiment of this kind (and science would certainly dictate that) the same conditions must apply to all. Comparisons between BH investors and short-term traders, for example, are perhaps suitable for a completely different experiment: but they cannot be usefully made if the majority of those taking part saw themselves, and were, participating in a BH experiment.

In what follows I have dealt with those who did NOT meet the original conditions in a separate, later section (II), with special attention those who only PARTLY deviated, for example by not buying 10 stocks, but being partly in cash. Their portfolios can at least TO AN EXTENT be compared, though of course not properly.

METHOD OF CALCULATING RESULTS
What I was interested in was to find out which stocks were held by BH participants, and to see how those stocks - and the the portfolios of which they formed part - had performed. Also, what conclusions one could perhaps draw from a comparison between the results. Often, in cases like these, one considers - or tries to consider - factors which have made certain portfolios or stocks rise more than others. I should still like to engage in such analysis, but would really like to know more about what strategies the participants saw themselves as adopting, as that would be very useful info to have, for all concerned. However, the results by themselves will perhaps suggest, very tentatively, a number of things about what worked out well and what did not, at least for this short (and rather arbitrary) period. Depending on extensive consideration of the various complex factors, not least what was intended, one might at a later stage possibly come to some valuable conclusions.

But for all that to happen we first of all need to have a set of results that we can have faith in, and this is where I struck a difficulty. The outcome of what I have found has in fact been a considerable surprise to me, and that is why I feel I must explain precisely what I have done.

I could not take the results as they stand today (as per the end of 16 November) back to 13 June without a great deal of difficulty. WHAT WE WANT TO KNOW, I FELT, IS HOW THESE STOCKS HAVE PERFORMED OVER TIME, I.E. HOW MUCH VALUE THEY HAVE ADDED, OR TAKEN AWAY. As a calculation for the exact period 13 June - 16 November was very difficult for me (with limited time and arithmetical skills), I decided to do something more simple.

Stock Doctor, whose calculations are known for their precision, enables one to work out very easily by what percentage a stock has risen or fallen over a period of 6 months. It could not do it, working back from 16 November, for a period of 5 months (i.e. to 16 June, which would have suited the experiment almost exactly), but it COULD do it back to 16 May. I decided to do this, in the full knowledge that I have thus acted as though people chose their shares a month earlier than in fact they did. From what I have seen, however, I would argue that this does not affect the results greatly on a comparative basis, and that there is no unfairness in the procedure. ALL of us would have considered how the stocks were performing in the recent past when we selected before 13 June, and the full period from then until now IS covered: the only "extra" factor is that the start date has been made a month earlier. I don't think, either, that something very shocking happened between 16 May and 13 June. If someone else wishes to calculate the results as from 13 June that can still be done - but I found it a laborious task and abandoned it. IN DECEMBER, WE COULD HAVE AN EXACT 6 MONTHS CALCULATION, USING STOCK DOCTOR AT THE CLOSE OF TRADE ON THE 13TH, WITHOUT *ANY* DISTORTION POSSIBLY ARISING FROM THE EXTRA MONTH I HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS CASE. BUT I WOULD ASK PEOPLE TO BEAR IN MIND THAT THE WHOLE EXERCISE IS THEORETICAL ANYWAY.

The result staggered me in that my figures would seem to suggest certain major discrepancies from those apparently produced by Hilarius, and I don't as yet know why. This will hopefully become obvious before long!

Below I produce the results as so far found, for the period 16 May - 16 November (6 months). From everything I have said it will be clear that THIS IS NOT, AND NEVER WAS, A COMPETITION, AND SHOULD NOT EVEN REMOTELY BE SEEN AS IDENTIFYING "THE BEST INVESTORS". IT CANNOT DO SO AND DOESN'T. EVEN THE FACT THAT SOME VERY GOOD RESULTS WERE OBTAINED BY TRADERS (SECTION II) RATHER THAN INVESTORS SHOULD DISPEL ANY THOUGHT THAT CONCLUSIONS ABOUT A HIERARCHY OF SKILLS CAN BE DRAWN.
----------------------------------------------------------
SECTION I: RESULTS OBTAINED IF WE CONSIDER THOSE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT 10 SHARES AND ASSUME THEY WERE ALL HELD OVER THE PERIOD 16 MAY - 16 NOVEMBER.

Note: dividends are NOT included - these are ONLY share prices

The order of the participants is arbitrary (simply that of Hilarius's spreadsheet).

(1) RUDY: ASX 16.2%, BHP 32.9%, DJS -6.1%, IMD 44.1%, MND 21.1%, JBH 72.3%, MRM 20.4%, REF -7.6%, RIO 44.7%, HVN 29.7%.

TOTAL RUDY: +26.8%.

(2) RESILLENT 1: CCP -45.2, HST 23.3, MFS -23.9, MLB -6.7, MND 21.1, NUF 18.4, SRX 45.2, TGR 14.4, WBA 24.8, WOR 56.6

TOTAL RESILLENT 1: +12.8%.

(3) PHILR: SDL 160.5, CMO -11.3, CVN 273.3, NAV 35.9, DRT 3.5, MPO 22.5, SLX - 24.4, PNA 100, AGS -26.5, RML -27.1.

TOTAL PHILR: +50.6%.

(4) ODY: CAB -15.5, CCP -45.2, IPL 44.3, JBH 72.3, LEI 44.8, MMS -6.38, MLB -6.7, MRM 20.4, SMX 33.0, STS 68.1.

TOTAL ODY: +20.9.

(5) MRLUNCH: AAR 1.1, CFE -15.1, CNM 220.7, CPN 42.8, DIO 81.0, EVG 44.4, IGC -37.1, FML 78.5, SDL 160.5, VMY 31.8.

TOTAL MRLUNCH: +60.8%.

(6) STOCKY: PNA 100, CFE -15.1, TTY 122.2, EXM 94.4, MXL -51.5, MAR 28, MRE -32.5, OEL -1.4, EBI -9.9, AAE -75.5.

TOTAL STOCKY: +15.8%.

(7) GOHARD: AWC -10.5, AXA 2.5, BSL -17.8, CPU -6.7, DRT 3.5, ORI -12.2, OST 6.5, OXR 21.1, WES 4.4, ZFX -12.7.

TOTAL GOHARD: -2.1%.

(8) PETERLOH: SGL 14.2, MGX 182.1, AGM -32.2, MCR 9.3, PEM -15.5, HSP -8.9, TLS [very close to peterloh's TLSCA, which SD doesn't include - actually TLS did a little better] -3.3, TTS -21.5, JST 35.7, BOL -28.5.

TOTAL PETERLOH: +13%.

(9) HILARIUS: AOE 21.4, CSL 7.8, PNA 100, QGC 82.9, RSP 48.4, SHG 110.9, SLX -24.4, SMY 12.2, TGR 14.4, WOR 56.6.

TOTAL HILARIUS: +43%

-------------------------------------------------------

SECION II: PARTICIPANTS WHO DID NOT BUY AND HOLD ACCORDING TO THE ORIGINAL PLAN

007 provides a puzzle in buying 9 stocks and having two (identical??) separate amounts in cash. The stocks performed well, as follows, but there aren't 10 of them: APG -35.2, BSA -1.7, CTO 21.3, MND 21.1, MGX 182.1, ORG 1.6, PPC -3.6, SDM 34.6, TEY 21.7, Cash, Cash. If I average out the stocks ONLY, I get + 26.8%.

SURFERDUDE provides a similar puzzle in buying 8 stocks and placing two identical amounts in cash. The stocks performed well, as follows, but there weren't 10 of them: MND 21.1, PMM 64.0, WOR 56.6, BHP 32.9, SMX 33.0, OKN 7.8, WHG -12.2, KZL -0.1. If I average out the stocks ONLY, I get +25.38%.

VERMANTE bought just one stock: PDN. TOTAL RETURN: -19.7%.

LAFEE and SMALLWORLD traded. Their results are strong, but simply fall outside a "Buy and hold project". I also do not have the time or skill to go through all the steps involved.
-------------------------------------------------------

I should now be very keen to learn from the participants, and of course Hilarius, where I may have made errors in what I have produced. I'd hope to be able to produce a survey in the same manner (using Stock Doctor) based on 13 December, when the report will cover a totally real and "LEGITIMATE" period of 6 months (i.e. from the actual starting date).

PLEASE NOTE: ANY ERRORS IN THE ARITHMETIC ARE UNINTENDED, BUT EASILY MADE, EVEN IF ONE TRIES HARD TO AVOID THEM. I OFFER APOLOGIES FOR ANY ERRORS IN ADVANCE.


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ody
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YET ANOTHER CORRECTION for the B and H project!

Just as I thought I had things really right ... the figure for Hilarius's AOE should be 62.86, not 21.4, as I reported. That is the figure for AEO, instead. So Hilarius goes up the ladder yet further. Apologies, Hilarius, and well done.

God knows I try ... but I clearly do make several mistakes. I apologise also to my readers for the nuisance I have caused.

Even so, it is important to get the facts right. And the results become more and more interesting as I study them. I hope others are also deriving benefit from the whole exercise.


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ody
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FORGOTTEN POST

This should have appeared here as well as on Our Daily Bread. Sorry!

LEARNING FROM THE BUY AND HOLD PROJECT

I for one AM learning from the project in my own case. I chose CAB (now -15.5 down on its 15 May figure), CCP (-45.2), IPL (44.3), JBH (72.3), LEI (44.8), MMS (-6.38), MLB (-6.7), MRM (20.4), SMX (33.0), STS (68.1).

Before the experiment, I had many times said on this thread that I am a very quick seller when stocks turn sour. However, I thought even so (1) that - despite the dangers I acknowledged about my own choice in June - I would be able to select 10 stocks that at the very least would not go down much except in a bad correction, and (2) that I would cope well enough with any significant downturn.

Both assumptions have turned out to be wrong. I was NOT able to select stocks as successfully as I thought, and should have realised that for a real portfolio I would have chosen more carefully, so could not expect to depart successfully from what I normally do. As well, the downfall of CAB and CCP annoy the hell out of me.

Would I in real life, if I had actually have chosen this list to invest in, have managed better because in real life I do sell? Well, yes, and fortunately I can prove that, to the extent that I owned both stocks before I left for Europe in mid-August, and in fact did sell them. Moreover, I did not feel the faintest inclination to buy them back on 3 September, when I went back into the market.

True, my selling my WHOLE portfolio was unusual. But it remains true that I would in any case, even if I had not gone to Europe, have sold a very large number of stocks, because as a matter of record I saw a 15% correction as quite likely, so in the event was quite pleased to exit the market totally. If there is one thing I feel sure of it is that CAB and CCP would both have gone even if I had stayed in Australia, while I immediately add that I would also have sold winners (as in fact I did). I would have felt better about missing out on any upside than about taking significant losses.

(Message edited by ody on November 18, 2007)


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hilarius
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Good Morning from the Friary

Over the weekend a few of us have been engaged in a comprehensive audit of the "Buy and Hold" project

I received exceptional help from Ody and Smallworld in looking at the Buy and Hold paper portfolios from two perspectives :-

(1) Ody ... a "What If" view considering what might have occurred if the June selections had been made a month earlier, and had been held for the full 6 months through to Friday 16th November 2007

(2) Smallworld ... a measurement of each portfolio from the official start date until Friday 16th November 2007

In thanking both these gentlemen I note the clarity and enthusiasm both have applied to the task. It is especially noteworthy that Ody provided instant corrections to his results as soon as he became aware of the need. This is the mark of a person who values integrity in his reporting.

I must thank Smallworld also for providing a comprehensive table of opening and closing values, and a tabulation of statistics resulting from his analysis.

Both supplied reporting of a high standard and now we have sorted out the maths we can get on with seeing what happened to the selected stocks.

I plan to report on my own selections and I hope other participants will do the same

CORRESPONDENCE WILL BE ENTERED INTO !!!

I should also add that Groups 1, 2 and 3 have been suggested by Ody and the reporting will cover these 3 groups :-

(1) Buy and Hold 10 Stocks with no changes
(2) Buy and Hold Less than 10 stocks with no changes
(3) Changes to original selections

There is no implication that any Group's contribution is less valuable than another ... but the concept of a Buy and Hold group of 10 stocks is a core idea worth looking at separately

Here is the Report for Group 1 and reports for Groups 2 and 3 will follow ASAP

The blue figures in Columns C and D cover the official period of the project. It is interesting that only one person was able to improve on a notional month earlier start for the same selected stocks, as shown by comparing the official (blue) results with Ody's work.

pv


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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resillent1
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The differences in returns between the date ranges are very interesting. My selection appears to be the only one whose performance was worse in the earlier period. I limited my selection to stocks I currently held. So had less chance of near term performance biasing my selection.

Because the figures are only snap shots of a starting and ending date the actual returns don’t have much significance to me, though I did find smallworlds equity curves very interesting, practically the magnitude of the draw downs.

For me the value in the experiment is to compare how a theoretical buy and hold compares to what I have done in real life. What I want to know is how has my TOTAL CAPITAL has fared under my actual management as compared to how it would have fared if I was fully invested in 10 stocks held for a certain period.

Did I add value over a buy and hold?

I have my actual figures based on financial years but have to rework for a starting period of 15 June. I will post it latter.

Are others able to work out their actual performance for the period in question? How do their figures compare to the buy and hold results? What effect has cash holdings had on draw down and overall return?


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resillent1
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Here is my actual equity curve for total funds available for trading.

I have re-based it to 100 as at 15 June and compared it to the All Ordinaries accumulation index. (Also re-based to 100 at 15 June)

I would like to compare it to the equity curve that smallworld was able to produce for my Buy & Hold selection but am unable to do so with my software.

My actual return for the period is 19%, which includes paid interest and dividends.

My Buy & Hold return as calculated by Hilarius and Smallworld is 15%, but I’m not sure if they have included dividends?

So a 4% (less dividends) premium for my input – Hmmmm!!!

Equity


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ody
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Monday, November 19, 2007 - 02:46 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



UPDATED (2ND REVISION) FOR THE BHPROJECT

19 November 2007:

I have updated (revised again) the relevant figures, incorporating the new (and imposing!) figure for Hilarius. Hope this will now make the figures correct for what they are (i.e. 6 mths figures). They are NOT those which apply to the duration of the project, which started a month later. Figures are as for 16 November, working backwards 6 mths.

Hilarius: we now of course all expect you to tell us "how you did it", and to provide a beacon for our future!
-----------------------------------------------------------
SECTION I: RESULTS OBTAINED IF WE CONSIDER THOSE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT 10 SHARES AND ASSUME THEY WERE ALL HELD OVER THE PERIOD 16 MAY - 16 NOVEMBER.

Note: dividends are NOT included - these are ONLY share prices

The order of the participants is arbitrary (simply that of Hilarius's spreadsheet).

(1) RUDY: ASX 16.2%, BHP 32.9%, DJS -6.1%, IMD 44.1%, MND 21.1%, JBH 72.3%, MRM 20.4%, REF -7.6%, RIO 44.7%, HVN 29.7%.

TOTAL RUDY: +26.8%.

(2) RESILLENT 1: CCP -45.2, HST 23.3, MFS -23.9, MLB -6.7, MND 21.1, NUF 18.4, SRX 45.2, TGR 14.4, WBA 24.8, WOR 56.6

TOTAL RESILLENT 1: +12.8%.

(3) PHILR: SDL 160.5, CMO -11.3, CVN 273.3, NAV 35.9, DRT 3.5, MPO 22.5, SLX - 24.4, PNA 100, AGS -26.5, RML -27.1.

TOTAL PHILR: +50.6%.

(4) ODY: CAB -15.5, CCP -45.2, IPL 44.3, JBH 72.3, LEI 44.8, MMS -6.38, MLB -6.7, MRM 20.4, SMX 33.0, STS 68.1.

TOTAL ODY: +20.9.

(5) MRLUNCH: AAR 1.1, CFE -15.1, CNM 220.7, CPN 42.8, DIO 81.0, EVG 44.4, IGC -37.1, FML 78.5, SDL 160.5, VMY 31.8.

TOTAL MRLUNCH: +60.8%.

(6) STOCKY: PNA 100, CFE -15.1, TTY 122.2, EXM 94.4, MXL -51.5, MAR 28, MRE -32.5, OEL -1.4, EBI -9.9, AAE -75.5.

TOTAL STOCKY: +15.8%.

(7) GOHARD: AWC -10.5, AXA 2.5, BSL -17.8, CPU -6.7, DRT 3.5, ORI -12.2, OST 6.5, OXR 21.1, WES 4.4, ZFX -12.7.

TOTAL GOHARD: -2.1%.

(8) PETERLOH: SGL 14.2, MGX 182.1, AGM -32.2, MCR 9.3, PEM -15.5, HSP -8.9, TLS [very close to peterloh's TLSCA, which SD doesn't include - actually TLS did a little better] -3.3, TTS -21.5, JST 35.7, BOL -28.5.

TOTAL PETERLOH: +13%.

HILARIUS: AOE 62.8, CSL 7.8, PNA 100, QGC 82.9, RSP 48.4, SHG 110.9, SLX -24.4, SMY 12.2, TGR 14.4, WOR 56.6.

TOTAL HILARIUS: +56.6%

-------------------------------------------------------

SECION II: PARTICIPANTS WHO DID NOT BUY AND HOLD ACCORDING TO THE ORIGINAL PLAN

007 provides a puzzle in buying 9 stocks and having two (identical??) separate amounts in cash. The stocks performed well, as follows, but there aren't 10 of them: APG -35.2, BSA -1.7, CTO 21.3, MND 21.1, MGX 182.1, ORG 1.6, PPC -3.6, SDM 34.6, TEY 21.7, Cash, Cash. If I average out the stocks ONLY, I get + 26.8%.

SURFERDUDE provides a similar puzzle in buying 8 stocks and placing two identical amounts in cash. The stocks performed well, as follows, but there weren't 10 of them: MND 21.1, PMM 64.0, WOR 56.6, BHP 32.9, SMX 33.0, OKN 7.8, WHG -12.2, KZL -0.1. If I average out the stocks ONLY, I get +25.38%.

VERMANTE bought just one stock: PDN. TOTAL RETURN: -19.7%.

LAFEE and SMALLWORLD traded. Their results are strong, but simply fall outside a "Buy and hold project". I also do not have the time or skill to go through all the steps involved.
-------------------------------------------------------

I should now be very keen to learn from the participants, and of course Hilarius, where I may have made errors in what I have produced. I'd hope to be able to produce a survey in the same manner (using Stock Doctor) based on 13 December, when the report will cover a totally real and "LEGITIMATE" period of 6 months (i.e. from the actual starting date).

PLEASE NOTE: ANY ERRORS IN THE ARITHMETIC ARE UNINTENDED, BUT EASILY MADE, EVEN IF ONE TRIES HARD TO AVOID THEM. I OFFER APOLOGIES FOR ANY ERRORS IN ADVANCE.

19 November: thanks to those who provided corrections. I hope I have incorporated them correctly, and that this will be "it", for this period . . .


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ody
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Monday, November 19, 2007 - 02:57 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



RESILLENT: DIVIDENDS

Of course dividends should ideally be included. The Stock Doctor list that I used gave share prices only, and I suspect that the figures supplied by Hilarius and Smallworld were similarly without dividends, but they will be able to confirm or correct that impression.

If at any time you want to have any figures WITH dividends for 12 months or longer periods, I can actually provide those from Stock Doctor in the form of "total shareholder returns". But that was not the period in question. Also, those figures actually take quite a bit more work to compile.


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hilarius
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Good Afternoon

I confirm no dividends have been included in any calculations to date

I am prepared to consider them as a Christmas Bonus on the following conditions :-

(1) Members of my Audit Committee agree

(2) Each participant calculates his or her own dividend list and submits it for review

(3) It should be noted that I will not be interrupting my Christmas Turkey to check the dividend lists and I may well be asleep between Christmas and New Year

(4) Retrospective dividend credits may be allowed sometime in January depending on the views of the Audit Committee

(5) Any discussion of franking credits will result in automatic disqualification :-)

With Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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ody
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DIVIDENDS

Hilarius, Resillent etc. - I think the important thing will be, once again, to keep matters very clear. If we add dividends to the final results in December, then obviously that should happen for ALL comparable results. I don't think we can ensure that it will and would predict that it won't. So it would certainly be of interest to see what differences dividends make, but only if these are published separately, not if they get absorbed into a total return in some cases but not in others. I wouldn't have the slightest interest in "auditing" anyone for dividends, and would trust people to produce them honestly. It should then also be stated that, of course, they are "unaudited". But why would we prevent anyone from publishing their dividend results if they so wish - so long as they are kept separate?

(Message edited by ody on November 19, 2007)


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hilarius
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Ody is quite correct ... if as project organiser I am unable to ensure consistency in the reporting then dividends should be left out of the final results

If anyone cares to lodge a protest with the stewards after the final results have been declared they will need to :-

(1) Contact all other participants for their dividend lists
(2) Submit all dividend lists together with a guarantee of accuracy
(3) Wake me up from my Christmas/New Year slumber sometime after New Year's Day to alert me that a comprehensive dividend schedule has been prepared, relating to all participants
(4) Prepare for a refusal to consider it which may offend :-)

As Ody also quite rightly says anyone may make a claim to have an amount added for dividends, but I confirm now that it will not be part of the official Glad Tidings, unless there is a hostile takeover at the Friary and I am retrenched as Friar in Charge of Research Projects

Humbly Yours

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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hilarius
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Tuesday, November 20, 2007 - 06:46 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Good Morning

I have been asked to comment on the stocks I selected in June

At the time I was experimenting with various ranking methods and the following factors applied :-

(1) Bias to Energy
(2) High Forecast EPS Growth Rate
(3) Favourable Ratio of Forecast EPS to Price
(4) Subjective Review of Charts on my Watchlist

It is difficult to encapsulate all the factors in Point 4 other than to say that a strong Weinstein Stage 2 trend was generally essential

6 out of the 10 stocks had Actual and Forecast EPS Growth Rates of greater than 20% for 3 years out of 4 years reviewed 2006, 2007, 2008 & 2009

Another 3 had growth rates of greater than 20% for only two out of the 4 years, but their prices and charts were particularly attractive to compensate

All watchlist entries were based on high earnings per share growth forecasts as a primary filter

SLX was a special case where I was impressed with earnings prospects in the event of Australia becoming a major producer of nuclear energy and/or supplier of production expertise. The chart action alone was enough to make me include it as a speculation. Perhaps this was one of one of the rare occasions when TA alone had worked for me on paper and in real life, after I had been reading a long article about the potential for SLX to be a service provider!

Ironically this is a case where my recent support of producers versus mining/energy service providers was not consistently applied.

Perhaps the rising fortunes of Kevin Rudd have put paid to a Bush/Howard uranium future for Australia

Unfortunately I was swayed by hype and failed to base my selection on solid analyst forecasts.

I guess we all have flaws!

If I had stuck to my insistence on solid forecast earnings growth the portfolio would have done better. There is a clear lesson to be learned.

Since June I have refined still further my examination of future earnings relative to current price, with the aim of improving on my selection process

Unfortunately the market has turned volatile and less predictable at the same time as my selection methods are appearing to offer attractive opportunities

The question is whether to have faith in Australia's capacity to out-perform world markets and then at what point in corrections to make long entries

I currently have no trading funds in play other than an extremely small position in UXC, selected on the basis of high forward earnings relative to price (high future earnings yield) and reasonable TA

I am aware that I need to report also on the Group 2 and Group 3 portfolios but am currently battling the clock to produce two voluntary organisation budgets

I will get back to this thread as soon as practicable

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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hilarius
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A further word of explanation

The basic database from which I operate has been created using EPS forecasts downloaded laboriously from online sources

A great deal of work was involved in the set up stage, but the benefits are beginning to appear

I could save myself a lot of work by subscribing to a fundamental analysis provider

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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ody
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HILARIUS: high EPS growth and portfolio selection

Hilarius, I don't doubt that high EPS growth is ONE factor leading companies to success. However, I know you yourself agree that there are others of great importance too.

As a matter of interest, I looked at all the over 20% EPS growth companies on your spreadsheet for the BHProject, and found that, out of the whole large group, you had yourself selected only CSL, SMY, TGR, and WOR, and of these only WOR was a truly strong performer in your portfolio. The others you selected (CSL, SMY and TGR) only saw very modest increases in their share prices over the last 6 months.

As well, and to satisfy my curiosity further, I checked the PERFORMANCE of the over 50% EPS growth stocks on your spreadsheet. (To do all the 20% growth stocks would be very laborious.)

Among the list of "over 50s" there are a number that have performed strongly, but the overall performance has nevertheless been quite inconsistent, as follows (I hope I have got most of them right):

AWE -3.3, BPT 1.10, BVA -4.8, CMV 58.4, DES -20, LAF -61.6, MCU -11.5, MIS 123.1, NCM 62.7, SMY 20, SRL 59.8, SRX 43.2. I could not find LHG and BB on Stock Doctor, for whatever reason. I should also add that I checked these facts and figures only this morning. For the ones I mentioned as over 20s this won't have made a difference, but I must point out that the share prices of the over 50s are not those of Friday.

Of the "over 50s" stocks you picked only one for your portfolio: SMY.

My general impression is that there are some unexpected matters here, and I should much like you to enlighten us about them, if you are willing and able.

1. Why is there so little correlation between your own selection and the over 20s, and why only one stock from the over 50s in your selection?

2. How did it come about that the stocks which you yourself selected more often than not do not occur among the over 20s in the spreadsheet, and that only one occurs among the over 50s?

On the face of it, it would seem that for your own selection, even though the EPS growth figures were important, the REAL MERIT in your choice was guided by other factors.

I recall that for the experiment I on this occasion quite deliberately myself chose stocks that had high EPS growth figures and were in Weinstein 2 phase, yet the result has been erratic and disappointing: more so for the actual last five months than the last six, which suggests that probably momentum was to an extent lost during the first month (it was very high at the time I made my selection).

On Stock Doctor, incidentally, the filters allow you very readily to find a list with high EPS growth figures. It does not require an enormous amount of work to do that, by itself. But I don't think that either you or I would want to argue that anyone selecting a number of stocks at random from such a list would inevitably do well. Indeed, I would see that procedure as dangerous, and did not find - in exploring it for this experiment - that it actually "paid off", for the ones I chose. I selected too many stocks that I did not know well enough, and even among the ones that I did know, CCP (Credit Corp) recently lost just about 50% on a negative profit forecast.

There is a danger, I feel, in selecting stocks with very high EPS growth rates, unless you use proper ways of selecting the "safer" ones, and I think it is these "proper ways", which you obviously must have used, that ultimately must have given you an "edge", rather than just the EPS growth figures. I note you do, indeed, mention other factors, and these seem to have been very effective. Would you agree?

None of which detracts from your excellent results. But I wonder what you make of this response. Could you please address these points? That would no doubt be helpful to all.

Aditional point, after editing: could it be that using 20% as a basis actually was one factor helping you rather than using "over 50s"? My IMPRESSION is that this might be so. But it is a very superficial impression only, and may well be wrong. I have a stronger sense that using over 20% EPS is only a beginning - and does, of course, in principle provide a good platform - but that your real achievement is that you chose wisely among the over 20% group that you had assembled. In this you probably proved yourself to be the REAL stockpicker!

(Message edited by ody on November 20, 2007)


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hilarius
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Ody

You've touched on a very interesting issue.

In June Rudy and I were having a good discussion about the merits of a two year future view (2007 & 2008) versus a 3 year view (2007, 2008 & 2009)

Rudy quite rightly said that when you get to the third year the outlook is somewhat less reliable

I agreed, but pointed out that as we were so close to the year end it was likely that many analysts would have factored in 2007 considerations ahead of publication of the 2007 actuals

My thinking then and now is that many analysts enjoy a relationship with companies that is beneficial to their analysis. (Either that, or they pay very close attention to corporate briefings and announcements, as well as commodity prices, exchange rates and the like)

In other words they often have a very good sense of impending good results for 2007 by the time June arrives

This is reflected in the way they upgrade or downgrade their forecasts

My database had the benefit of capturing forecasts done in December, February, April and June so I was aware of the TREND of upgrades and downgrades

Further to that I had downloaded forecasts through to 2009 so from Rudy's perspective I was looking at three "future" years 2007, 2008 & 2009

I felt that 2007 was essentially a "done deal" barring any untoward surprises (and I felt that charts to some extent gave another indication of strong year end buying or selling that would have given some warning of anything nasty in the pipeline and conversely gave a good indication of year end market support ... a very important influence on my choices).

So I had access to analyst opinion TRENDS and charts (my point number 4)

In addition I had the added comfort of the 3rd year (which I felt was really now the 2nd year out from current status)

The over 50 and over 20 growth lists only considered 2007 and 2008 (basically only 1 year forward in my view).

I had the added benefit of 2009 (only 1 year away from actually starting) with 2008 start virtually only weeks away

6 out of 10 of my selected stocks had 3 over 20% EPS growth years including 2009

The over 20% growth list only considered 2007 and 2008

I think the fact that 60% of my selections had an added peek at what what analysts thought would be happening in the July 08 to June 09 period gave me an edge over the 2 year view which stopped at June 08

I think you also need to take into account my point 4 where I sought particular comfort from strong buying in the charts

I see FA and TA as better than either alone

Since I am seriously delayed with my voluntary organisation budget I am prevented from going back into all my documents, but I hope that gives some further insight.

In short 6 out of the 10 had an extra year of forecasting that Rudy had reservations about, but which I felt did add value because 1 of the the 3 years (2007) was virtually over and done with.

Polishing the crystal ball with an extra year was I feel a great help in 6 out of the 10 cases

With Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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ody
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HILARIUS: GROWTH FORECASTS

I think you build a strong case for regarding that last year - then 2009 - as important to take into account. Stock Doctor does not produce that, which I have always found an irritant. Even now, close to the end of 2007, it still does not go beyond 2008.

While I often agree with Rudy, I think that on this issue you may well have the better side of the argument. As you yourself make clear, it was not by any means the only thing you made excellent use of, but that does not do away with the likelihood that this extra factor was vital. If so: well done. I agree that if one goes too much by what is imminent that may already be in effect a done deal.


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ody
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GROWTH FORECASTS: CORRECTION

Hilarius and others: I said earlier today that Stock Doctor doesn't produce forecasts for 2009. This was utter nonsense: it depends entirely on which stock you look at. Many indeed do have 2009 forecasts. But not necessarily as often as one would like. I am not sure what governs the "state of play" in this regard.

Obviously, as we are now close to the end of 2007, it would be strange indeed if SD didn't have 2009 forecasts, and very often it does. I could also find them easily enough, for all of the stocks that I own right now, in other places.

Are there already any 2010 forecasts available?? Because, Hilarius, I do like your point about looking into the future beyond what is very readily available.


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hilarius
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Good Morning

Here are the results for those who have continued to hold the same 10 stocks from the start of the buy and hold project until now

Those who offered contrasting styles are most welcome to report their current status

Comments from all on their original selections and current assessments of their performance to date would be most welcome also

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

gt


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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mrlunch
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Hi all, Ody especially.

Yes I've been somewhat dormant of late - have been very busy with non-trading activities, and have also been developing my own strategies and so forth which I wanted to complete before really posting again.

That's quite a performance my stocks have come up with! Looking at them individually they have all moved significantly both ways, but even if you include the 12% they went up between me selecting them and the official start date it is hardly an inspiring result.

I have held positions in CNM and EVG for this entire time, and still do. I've been in and out of AAR, DIO, FML, SDL and VMT numerous times. I've very recently got back into VMT so currently I have CNM, EVG and VMT.

CNM and EVG and to a lesser extent VMT are the ones that appeal to me on a really long term basis.

Clearly holding a bunch of these types of stocks (i.e. very small with many risks but large potential) can produce large results one way or the other - yet as a whole they actually haven't moved that much (but a lot individually).

My conclusions really from all of this are that:

If you really, really like the prospects way out into the future then it is good to get your quota at a price you're happy to pay and then stick with them for the long haul (taking on new info but not necessarily acting quickly to it)

If you aren't a super fan of the company and/or prospects on that basis (but like something about it) then stick to the short term trading plan. Trade the setups, take your profits and cut your losses. Jump in and out whenever the opportunity presents itself.

This isn't revolutionary stuff, and it is largely what I have done. However this little project has reinforced those ideas to me. I really don't think you can hold something long term, especially through ups and downs, if you aren't a real believer in the company and the industry it operates in. This isn't necessary for a short term trade though.

Personally the company I like the most is CNM - and I can sit through it's large moves up and down and be quite comfortable. I can also say that to a lesser extent for EVG and VMT (though I'd be much more conscious about value for VMT which I think has appeared again now). So for the others, I really have no business buying them for the long term as I won't sit through a retracement, no way.

So what else is a consideration? Obviously even just a little bit of management could make a large difference. It would be quite easy out of the 10 stocks to simply dump 1 or 2 or 5 non-performers are greatly improve your result. However that opens up a different can of worms.

Certainly though you can choose 10 stocks you do like - then only keep those that perform. Now you have say 6 stocks you like that are performing. Again not revolutionary but this little experiment has reinforced the idea. Just because you like a stock, doesn't mean the market will. But it is a pre-requisite I believe if you expect yourself to hold it through thick and thin (obviously always within reason - whatever your 'reason' might be!).

Anyway I hope that is of use to someone, still pretty hectic here but hopefully will be able to post more soon.

Cheers


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dug
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Greetings MrLunch,
How about opening a CNM thread in Long Term and giving your specific views?
There's a CNM thread in Short Term but I think tryhay may have sold out of it today [Target Hit].

I'm trying to specialise in "Green Shares",anticipating it turning into THE Up'n'Coming Sector.I see you live in Perth so I'm wondering if you have some local knowledge of CNM?

Anyway,if you find the time and can be bothered,would you give us "d'Gist" as you see it re CNM?
cheers.



Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

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mrlunch
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Hi Dug,

I very nearly traded some CNM yesterday myself - however my holding is less than half the size I want it to be so I refrained from doing so. It is a long term investment after all, but when I have a very large position in such an investment the short term trader in me will occasionally take profits on a small holding and buy them back later.

Ultimately though I am looking to add to CNM, not subtract, so taking the risk of CNM not giving me a cheaper re-entry was not an option.

I don't think I'll start a CNM thread - but if someone else does I would probably contribute to it.

In a nutshell, CNM has technology that is near commercial development (and so far all signs are quite positive it will get there) that can create either clean electricity or desalinated water. These are things that Australia and the world at large needs, and is likely to need more and more.

This really sums up my entire view and I believe it is that simple.

I would be happy to discuss it further though

I too am interested in "green shares". CNM and GDY are my current exposures there.

Oh yeah and I don't have any particular local knowledge living here in Perth (except I might read in the paper they did some tests or whatever just off the coast here). However I'm sure I could go and visit them quite easily and that probably isn't a bad idea...


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dug
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007 - 11:26 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well,I'll open soon a specific CNM thread within my Green Buck$ short term one.One is subject,in Short Term to our Captain's "denigration" but leave me to handle any "insults" he chucks at ya,Mr Lunch.

I'm "researching" this mindset of Long Term Holds and it is interesting to me that you are only Half Filled at this juncture in CNM.
One method I'm pursuing is the Trading short term in such shares to raise the Capital for Increase Holding in the Long Term.[ie Sell Higher for $$$,to Buy More Numerically on Retrace]

Anyhow,not earth shatteringly New,hey?

I have some points about CNM that have made me wary.I also am looking at the Hot Rock "Sector" but hold neither so hope to see you posting out on the MainBoards soon,Mr Lunch.
regards.



Even 'til Jaded.

Dig for the sake of it.

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mrlunch
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007 - 11:58 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



OK Dug keep me posted, no pun intended!

I've got a pretty thick skin, so I'll come prepared.

CNM was trading around 12 cents not too long ago. It was here that I had decided I would more than double my current holding. However as I considered this investment to be one of many years I had reminded myself there was not such a hurry to deploy funds. Within a few short days CNM was at 17 cents and I didn't bother to chase it.

Your "not earth shatteringly new" method is similar to something I'd do myself - but on this occasion I've decided I want to keep at least what I have in CNM and no less... but would look to do such a thing once I had more. I'm sure we could come up with short term signals for such trading

Would be interested to hear your views - let me know when/where I can find your thread, cheers.


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smallworld
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Update to Dec 7
TickerTradeDatePriceEx. dateEx. PriceSharesCostValue
VCNLong1/11/20070.557/11/20070.575181818100,033104512
MCOLong1/11/20070.46/11/20070.39250000100,03397467
MUNLong5/11/20070.8556/11/20070.815116959100,03395289
AIILong5/11/20070.348/11/20070.355294118100,033104379
HZLLong6/11/20070.657/11/20070.7153846100,033107659
AVXLong7/11/20070.7558/11/20070.74132450100,03397980
AAMLong7/11/20070.318/11/20070.33322581100,033106419
BDLLong7/11/20070.378/11/20070.365270270100,03398616
CRELong7/11/20070.478/11/20070.485212766100,033103159
LNGLong7/11/20070.7358/11/20070.76136054100,033103368
GCXLong9/11/20071.71512/11/20071.7558309100,033102008
CRELong9/11/20070.49512/11/20070.48202020100,03396937
AIILong9/11/20070.3812/11/20070.37263158100,03397335
ADXLong9/11/20070.2512/11/20070.23400000100,03391967
GUJLong12/11/20070.6413/11/20070.7156250100,033109342
PLVLong12/11/20072.0613/11/20072.1948544100,034106278
NMSLong12/11/20071.23513/11/20071.21580972100,03398348
NGFLong12/11/20070.4913/11/20070.475204082100,03396906
MIKLong14/11/20070.81515/11/20070.875122699100,033107329
GUJLong14/11/20070.70515/11/20070.795141844100,033112733
EXMLong15/11/20070.03916/11/20070.0352564100100,03389711
GSFLong16/11/20070.07119/11/20070.0741408450100,033104192
NGFLong19/11/20070.520/11/20070.505200000100,033100967
NMSLong19/11/20071.30520/11/20071.3476628100,033102649
SHGLong20/11/20071.80521/11/20071.955402100,034105231
SGLLong20/11/20070.4121/11/20070.41243902100,03399967
GSFLong19/11/20070.07522/11/20070.0811333330100,033107967
PDZLong21/11/20071.33522/11/20071.32574906100,03399217
ADXLong26/11/20070.2427/11/20070.23416667100,03395800
PDZLong26/11/20071.37527/11/20071.3872727100,033100330
EXMLong26/11/20070.04127/11/20070.0382439020100,03392650
LNGLong26/11/20070.7527/11/20070.75133333100,03399967
GSFLong27/11/20070.09928/11/20070.0961010100100,03396937
EXMLong (max loss)28/11/20070.04629/11/20070.042173910100,03386956
GXYLong3/12/20070.9554/12/20070.97104712100,033101538
UNILong3/12/20070.394/12/20070.4256410100,033102531
GRYLong3/12/20070.74/12/20070.705142857100,033100681
ADXLong4/12/20070.255/12/20070.25400000100,03399967
BASLong6/12/20070.167/12/20070.18625000100,033112467
PESLong6/12/20070.8557/12/20070.87116959100,033101721
EXMOpen Long7/12/20070.0477/12/20070.0442127660100,03393617
SHGOpen Long7/12/20071.8757/12/2007253333100,032106666
GXYOpen Long7/12/20071.0757/12/20070.8293023100,03376279
PREOpen Long7/12/20070.067/12/20070.0571666670100,03395000
GRYOpen Long7/12/20070.727/12/20070.77138889100,033106945

ending Cash = 1.16M
Ending Capital = 1.64M



Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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smallworld
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007 - 12:21 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Also took the liberty to update the equity curves of the buy and holders here



Very interesting to note that the results are starting to diverge from Nov onwards. suggesting that the market rally is not board base. while Hilarius's equity is maintaining an upward movement, Mine is moving downward since Nov, probably suggesting that the my system is not very efficient in trading this type of market, get whipsawed???
Interesting none the less

Cheers


Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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ody
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007 - 12:54 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



SMALLWORLD: GLAD TIDINGS FIGURES

Interesting to see the results you posted. I arranged with Hilarius a few days ago that at the close of trading on Friday I'd assemble, as I did before, the figures for stocks within and making up the individual portfolios, now taken back to their starting day (Hilarius saw Friday - Friday 6 months later as the most appropriate measure). Hilarius will then check my figures so as to identify errors (I hope there will be fewer this time), and I'll publish the corrected figures early next week.

(Message edited by Ody on December 12, 2007)


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ody
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SMALLWORLD: BUY AND HOLDERS

You include, in contrast to Hilarius, Surferdude among your buy and holders. The trouble is that he only held 8 stocks and kept the rest of the original amount in cash, so he did not run the same risk (or chance of gain) as the others. We must compare apples with apples here. If he were to be included, then presumably 007 would have a better claim, as he, at least, had 9 stocks. But really these two should be treated as separate cases, both of them. Group 1 should consist only of those who took exactly the same risks and had exactly the same chances, by all holding 10 and the same stocks for the duration of the experiment. Nothing "wrong" with what anyone else did, but they should not be confused with group 1, and did not comply with the original "rules of the game". We can't learn anything much from comparing incomparables. It makes a significant difference whether someone selects 8 stocks or 10, as the extra two chosen might be exactly those which bring the big wins or losses.


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smallworld
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007 - 05:51 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody
As this is an experiment, not a race, we have a lot of possibilities in the way we want to approach this. For a start, Surfer's entry was accepted in the beginning and his performance monitored by Hilarius. We now have surfers result and is certainly interesting, especially given the discussion we have had about no. of stocks we should have in a portfolio. His result, despite having 8 stocks, have outperformed the median of Gr 1, I think it should be studied to see any more light can be brought to that debate. He might not be a group 1 candidate, as you have suggested and I have no dispute there. But he is certainly a buy and holder, unlike 007 who traded, the b&h is the group that I have provided results for (bar Vermante). I didnt differentiate between group 1 and non group 1 buy and holders, but I wouldnt stop you from putting surfer in a separate category. At a glance, i would think his diversity can provide an insight into this experiment if his performance is taken for what it is, not what it isn't.
I think this is also the intention of H, is it true H? I for one would be interested in the what if scenario of him being allocated 1/8 of his capital to each stock. We dont have the number of people with 8 stocks so we cant draw too much from that. Nevertheless, his performance should be analysed just like the others, not ignored which I dont think you are suggesting.
By the way, I am not saying 007 should be excluded either, just that I have everybody elses instantly available but not his.
Regards
SW

(Message edited by smallworld on December 12, 2007)


Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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hilarius
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Smallworld

Thanks for the equity curves ... most helpful

It is certainly not my wish to ignore any of the participants

Ody has suggested Group 1 (10 stocks bought and held)

This is fine for comparison purposes of those portfolios, and I don't think your inclusion of Surferdude in your chart detracts from the reporting which Ody is planning for Group 1

Group 2 will be those with less than 10 buy and hold stocks and Group 3 will be the traders ... all of whom have added interest and value to the project

Everyone deserves commendation for their interest in and support of the project

Regards

H

PS There is no doubt that those who included cash in their "portfolio" have much to offer if their 8 or 9 choices plus cash outperformed some with 10 stocks ... it will be interesting to see how their selection process may have contributed to that performance

The original rules did include a cash option which may have been a mistake on my part ... but it has added extra interest to the overall findings, as have the trader results. I think Ody is right to keep the different types of holdings separate. Your chart input is still extremely interesting, even though not exactly following Ody's groups which I approved in discussion with him and in preparing my last report on November month end

I apologise for neglecting Groups 2 and 3 in my recent reporting due to personal problems, but I hope to rectify that over the holiday period


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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ody
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007 - 10:47 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Smallworld/Hilarius: Procedures for the Buy and Hold Project

I didn't in any way think or say that the results of Surferdude or anyone else taking part should not be ANALYSED. Indeed, if one can actually show that the choice of 8 groups versus 10 made a difference to the final result, that would potentially be interesting. I doubt that it could be done usefully, for unless person A starts with 10 stocks and person B used the same stocks minus two, you would to begin with have the difficulty of comparing what may be quite dissimilar stock selection. You then have the problem of deciding just what difference the omission of two stocks has made, and why, etc. But although I think all this could be interesting though most likely futile, it does remain the case that you CAN compare ten different portfolios where ALL participants were bound by exactly identical initial rules.

Of course you can have curves "comparing" totally incomparable portfolios, and such illustrations may have some kind of interest, but you are likely to create unnecessary confusion if you don't on the other hand make important distinctions as to how those curves may have come to be what they are. That is, if you put them all together, that will be meaningful only if AT THE SAME TIME you indicate the specific different conditions that operated when the original choice was made. Otherwise we'd also have to put PDN in even though that investor chose just the one stock.

Would you seriously suggest, smallworld, that in that case this person met the buy and hold conditions and that we should cut up his investment into ten equal portions of PDN as though he actually did the same as someone who chose ten stocks? You'd get a meaningless jumble if you present a series of graphs together without explaining that one person invested in one stock while others had ten, etc. Again, the PICTURE may by itself have some interest, but it won't mean much unless you explain in WORDS AND FIGURES that the picture is not attempting to suggest that the participants all obeyed the same rules.

As I understand matters the initial intention was that everyone should select ten stocks and buy and hold them. The fact that some did do just that and stuck to the rules was fine, but while their efforts can for that reason be sensibly compared within a particular framework, the fact that others were allowed to do completely different things throws up utterly different considerations.

The "experiment" is not really worthy of that name, in such a situation. We should have EITHER had similar conditions for everyone, or a total free-for-all where we could then have discussed the very different approaches, e.g. whether buying and holding led to a different result from trading, etc. That would be a very DIFFERENT experiment, and perhaps worth undertaking, but only if from the BEGINNING all participants were given that same freedom. If we had been, I am sure that some of us buy-and-hold people would NOT have persistently held the same stocks, for example.

So as things stand I do think we need distinct groups: (1) those who stuck to the rules; (2) those who largely stuck to them but varied them slightly, like Surferdude; (3) those who were buy and hold people but departed markedly by holding e.g. just one stock; (4) those trading. That way we have some kind of intellectual clarity operating in our whole approach to the subject.

So hence the need for different groups. Nothing wrong with analysing different procedures and outcomes, but there is really no point in suggesting, even pictorially, that a person who is investing in 8 stocks and otherwise holds cash is doing the same exercise as all those who invest in 10 stocks.


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hilarius
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Greetings to All

I need to take full responsibility for varying the rules

It started off as $ 1,000,000 in notional dollars to be spent on ten stocks

I then varied that concept to allow different trading styles

Any resulting confusion is entirely my fault

Clarity provided by Ody is very welcome and I will be working with him to ensure that Group 1 reporting is accurate ... thank you Ody for the clarity you have brought to the arrangement of the groups and the reporting which you are kindly providing

To clarify my "shortness of time" I am working to assist a small business to survive with transparent reporting, and at this time of year I feel a strong personal responsibility to the staff concerned even though it is not my own business but that of extended family members

It would be sad to see it go under when it is actually enjoying a sales revival, but if I seem less than involved here at IC it is only because I am juggling my time away from IC to achieve an important outcome

I look forward to working with Ody at the weekend and thank Smallworld once again for the effort he applied to the illustrations

Cheers to All

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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smallworld
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Thursday, December 13, 2007 - 02:09 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody,
I think it is a trivial matter and I dont really care. And I'm sure if it is important to surferdude, he will talk for himself.
I only want to address your last paragraph as it has more to do with me. Now you said, " but there is really no point in suggesting, even pictorially, that a person who is investing in 8 stocks and otherwise holds cash is doing the same exercise as all those who invest in 10 stocks."
In a perfect world, we will all be six foot four and play tennis like Roger Federer, or we'll all be Odys - with his education, financial capacity, and the same amount of free time that he has so we can do the same exercise in entering this experiment. In the real world, though my comparsions are imperfect, they are nonetheless, valid. Surferdude has made 8 entries which are close enough to 10 and certainly didnt disadvantage anybody other than himself. Since it is the "curves" that Ody is talking about. I'll illustrate this with an example of Ody's performance vs surferdude's
Surferdude is returning 17.19%, with an exposure of 80%, his risk adjusted return is 22.27%. While Ody's return is 12.8% with 100% exposure, his risk adjusted return is also 12.8%. So Surferdude'return is superior both in term of net profit as well as risk adjusted return. He has assumed less risk in the market and yet achieved better result. That is what we all want as a result. These are facts, and they are valid comparisons. Ody has not been disadvantaged by selecting his 10 stocks. I'm not picking on Ody, I'm just using his "curve" as an example.
Not only that, the pink line has less drawdowns as well, also a valid comparison.



I honestly cant see what the fuss is all about. What I'm certain is that I am not going to spend any more time on this again.

Hilarius, I certainly dont think you have done anything wrong. Surferdude posted his entries ages ago, people have plenty of time to protest or disagree with either his entries or your decisions and have chosen not to do so. So it says they are pretty happy overall.


Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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ody
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SMALLWORLD; APPROPRIATE COMPARISONS

As you say, the matter is not a very important one, at least not in practice, and it is notable how few people have actually taken an interest in this whole project. They might have found it more valuable if a proper and binding methodology had been chosen.

Your comparison between Surferdude and me - which I am not at all offended by - only serves to make my point, which is that a person who keeps 20% in cash takes less of a risk (for better or worse) than a person who exposes all his money to the market. That means that the investment parameters are not the same. It makes it harder to compare, as initially envisaged, the performance of people who must expose the SAME amount of money, as the person who chooses cash is not operating under the same rules. He chooses to give himself a degree of latitude that others don't have. I, for one, would in practice NEVER expose all my cash to the market, but keep usually at least 20% on deposit. Had I ALSO chosen eight stocks, it is possible that my performance would have been much worse than it is, but it might also have been better. We shall never know. What we do know is that the comparison between someone who holds money in cash and ANOTHER PERSON who does not do so creates a set of variables which makes it very difficult to draw significant comparisons. In the event I think I would most likely have underperformed Surferdude anyway, because my - very uncharacteristic (see below) - selection was not a good one.

Only when the conditions for all are the same can one say something sensible about stock selection, as noone can say: "Ah, but you exposed less money, so you had less to lose". Or engage in any similar reasoning which is in essence concerned with a different matter that is inherently extraneous, and invalidates, the experiment. Of course one can still compare, but the comparison becomes one of a different kind. One can also compare a person who chooses one stock with those who chooses ten, for example. Had the choice of that one stock been of a remarkably successful stock, one could argue that this person, despite choosing only one stock, did better than someone who chose ten. What would that prove? Very little, really: that a person who chooses one stock may do very much better, but the reverse could of course also happen.

Surferdude happened, with his eight stocks, to choose eight good ones. There is no doubt about that. And my selection of ten was less good, that is also clear. It is possible that if Surferdude had chosen ten he would have chosen another two as good or better, but he could also have chosen another two that would have made his performance worse. In other words, he chose a framework that differed from that of the majority, and cannot therefore be compared IN THE SAME TERMS. That is my point, and ultimately it is a very simple and I should have thought irrefutable one.

In any scientific experiment, it is a rule that one would in a case like this by preference only compare like with like, as otherwise the comparison will become virtually worthless. That is, one places people in EXACTLY the same conditions to see whether what they do otherwise differs. This is if it is difference in INDIVIDUALS that one wants to compare. If one tries to compare different METHODS, the comparison become much harder. Your own performance in this episode is excellent. Does this show that trading is better than buying or holding? Not necessarily, for it may be that you are an exceptional trader. It is clear, of course, that you are very good at it. But your success does not confirm - or refute - that a trader is likely to be more successful than someone who buys and holds, for there is a variable, and that is that it is YOU who do the one thing, and ANOTHER PERSON who does another.

The trading is something that obviously suits you, and you chose to go your own way. If I could have chosen my own way, then I can assure you that my performance would have been very different. There is no way that I would keep losing stocks, for example: my whole approach, in real life, depends significantly on quickly cutting losses and immediately substituting a stock that is performing better. Another thing: as I made plain from the very outset, I deliberately chose - for purely experimental reasons - aggressively chosen stocks with very high EPS growth and big momentum, to see how they would go. I would never do this in real life, and the attempt shows to me that this is certainly not an approach that *I* should adopt, though someone else might do it more successfully.

Different entrants did not even operate under similar conditions from the very beginning. For example, Rudy's selection formed the basis of it all, but he did not choose them for the experiment: Hilarius pounced on them as a basis for the whole thing, after Rudy had ALREADY chosen them as ten of his favourite stocks, potentially to be bought.

Without stressing unduly what happened in my own case: Rudy and I are known to choose often the same stocks, in real life. As Rudy's stocks already HAD been chosen, I felt it would be more interesting if I largely avoided duplicating him, so I made a to me quite "foreign" selection, with I suppose predictable consequences: my results suffered as a result. That is why I carefully explained at the outset that my selection was not "normal", but purely experimental.

Had Rudy and I from the beginning been asked to select ten stocks under identical conditions, our selections would have been very close, as our thinking is very similar and we use much the same ways of selecting stocks. Our posting on Our Daily Bread shows this time and again. I do not imply my performance would have been IDENTICAL, all the same. Rudy's might have been better under ANY circumstance. But if ten of your favourite choices have already been made, it makes it harder for you to find another ten as good.

I think you would find that any scientists looking in upon the whole situation would find that unfortunately the whole experiment was seriously flawed by objectives not clearly defined, and different rules applied to different individuals.

If one were to say: who would achieve the most within six months, choosing whatever method s/he wants, that could have some interest, and people would perform "true to nature". If you say: some must obey a set of rules, while others can do as they please, you in essence achieve nothing worthwhile.

If ALL were subject to the same rules, you could note that some, using those rules, performed better than others. You could then try to explore why this is.

As things stand I am sure that Hilarius himself would be the first admit that the outcome cannot be used to draw many valuable conclusions either about methods of investment or individuals. If several people all, from scratch, buy and hold ten stocks chosen under IDENTICAL conditions, some comparisons can be drawn at the end. On the other hand, if someone chooses to trade, that person has a latitude not imposed on the others. So all sorts of procedurally unsatisfactory elements debilitated this project from the start.

If the purpose is a different one, viz. that all people are allowed to do things in completely different ways, then one creates a new set of conditions to make THAT comparison. Then the experiment becomes utterly different in procedure and purpose, and may have some value under those conditions. Though you'd still face enormous hurdles. If a trader wins, does that mean that trading will in principle get better results, within six months? Or does it show that the trader is exceptional? Another interesting thing that happened in practice is that mrlunch, WHO NORMALLY TRADES, duly obeyed the rules, and held his stocks for 6 months. Surely this would have greatly debilitated his performance versus, say, your own?


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resillent1
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I think this exercise would be more valuable if people compared their own results from this exercise against their real life experience. I took the lead on this perspective back in Mid November but no one else seemed to follow.

Just comparing returns from theoretical portfolio’s seems like a complete waste of time to me.

What’s important is the difference that having skin on the line makes. Did our actual trade management add value or did fear keep us from matching the theoretical return?

https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/show.plx?tpc=427230&post=12 5653#POST125653


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hilarius
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Hi Resillent

A complete waste of time?

I am not sure that is really so

The purpose was to test selection skill

I think it has done that

With Best Wishes

Hilarius

PS The original conditions before they were relaxed set a guideline of holding 10 stocks for 6 months. The intent was to allow the successes to offset the failures and to obtain a measurement of portfolio creation skill

The fact that in real life one could prune out the failures led to a relaxation of the guidelines ... in order to be more realistic

It may well have been better to stick to the test of ability based on the selection of 10 stocks to be held until a common exit date

That would have been a complete "like for like" project

I still value the contributions of all under the relaxed rules


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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ody
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RESILLENT: GOOD POINT! (On the BHProject: theory vs. real life.)

I agree with you, Resillent, that an unsatisfactory aspect of the whole business of comparing theoretical portfolios is that they ARE theoretical. In my previous post (ours went up at much the same time) I actually to an extent did do just what you suggested. For example, we know that Rudy's was meant to be a "real life" selection - and a great one it was, too. I explained, for myself, that in real life I do not hang on to losing stocks; that I would never select an "experimental" portfolio like the one I did, and certainly not for 6 months; that I was trying to avoid duplication with Rudy, etc. So I agree with the whole thrust of your point. The ONLY thing that I learned for myself, from the experiment, is that I should stick to my "proven" real-life methods, and that selecting ten eccentric stocks that then must be held for six months does not suit me.

I recall that you wrote that valuable post, and should really have paid more attention to it.

Another point that would emerge, very interestingly, if one compared the situation with what people would do in real life would no doubt be that presumably e.g. smallworld would do very much the same (since he chose to do his own thing, completely outside the rules) while someone else - e.g. mrlunch - would not do the same thing AT ALL, as he, as a trader, would not normally keep a selection such as he submitted for 6 months. He DID play according to the rules. So all such things would have to be taken into account.

I THINK I am also right in saying that one or two of the investors were out of the market, in real life, during much of the experiment, but I am not sure. Ah: I do know that I was myself out of the market altogether for some weeks: I sold my real portfolio shortly after the market reached its peak before the August correction, and re-entered on 3 September with some of my money. In the project, I would not have been able to do this. So I am certainly one of those whom the project did not suit.


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hilarius
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Let's get one thing absolutely straight

The project was NEVER INTENDED TO BE A REPLICATION OF ALL VARIABLES IN REAL LIFE TRADING / INVESTING

It was intended to eliminate all variables except one ... portfolio selection skill, WHICH I REGARD AS ONE (BUT ONLY ONE) essential ingredient of trading/investing

The aim was TO TEST THE SELECTION INGREDIENT ONLY ... SELECTION AND NOTHING BUT SELECTION of a diverse group of 10 stocks to be held for a fixed term with all the risks inherent in such a fixed term

I should have stuck to the condition that no changes be allowed for the 6 months and few days to Christmas Eve

This would have placed the entire focus on selection including minimising losing choices and maximising winning ones

I still value the efforts of those that departed from that focus, with the aim of demonstrating their chosen contrasting styles in all good faith

It has highlighted that those who stuck to the original concept had a tough task ... which they performed conscientiously, as did the traders

I would like to hear more comments on why people chose the stocks they did, and how they would select differently if we were to repeat the project

Back to work !!!

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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resillent1
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Ody

Has your actual return on all capital available for investment exceeded the 12.8% return for the six months achieved in this competition, experiment, test or what ever Hilarius now thinks it is?

Would you have been better off putting 10% into each of the stocks you selected and leaving it alone? Compared to your actual result?

You say that un-managed holding doesn't suit you and your selections were bad, but how do the results compare to real life? 12.8% actually banked in six months is pretty good.


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ody
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Hilarius:

You rightly say:
----------------------------------------------------------------
The project was NEVER INTENDED TO BE A REPLICATION OF ALL VARIABLES IN REAL LIFE TRADING / INVESTING

It was intended to eliminate all variables except one ... portfolio selection skill, WHICH I REGARD AS ONE (BUT ONLY ONE) essential ingredient of trading/investing
------------------------------------------------------------

I don't think anyone disagrees with what you say. It WAS intended to do just one thing, from which a number of people deviated. Thus, in practice, a number of variables crept in that shouldn't have, as you agree.

I think Resillent's point is a good one nonetheless. While the project was intended to do what you say, he argues that we, as participants, can learn from comparing what we did for the project with what we did do, or might have done, in real life. That is certainly something that I find valuable myself. Of course, those who didn't stick to the rules and who did exactly what they would have done in real life are in a different boat. Presumably the experiment didn't tell them anything about themselves that they didn't already know.


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ody
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RESILLENT: THEORETICAL VS PRACTICAL PERFORMANCE

Your questions and comments are very much to the point, and you will get a very honest answer from me. But I'll consider two different matters.

1. My "gripe" about the BHProject is that it in practice became muddled. Also, that - at a personal level - it did not suit me because (a) I could not duplicate Rudy's choice, and (b) I could not sell stocks that underperformed and replace them with better ones.

Question (not your question, but legitimate to ask): Could I have performed better in this project if somewhat different parameters had been set? For example: "You must hold ten stocks at all times, but may sell what you see as your duds and replace them. Also, you may choose any stocks not already chosen by another competitor."

I am quite convinced that this would have created my very best result possible - interestingly, not least if I had been COMPELLED to stay in the market all the time, and had been ENABLED to choose ten stocks which I REALLY liked, but could if necessary have replaced at any time.

From observation of the whole experiment and my own knowledge of myself I could say: I would not have LIKED to stay in the market all the way through, but if the other conditions had been available to me, I would certainly have done much better than I have done now, in this experiment. I would, in actual fact, have chosen virtually identical stocks to Rudy's; I would hardly have needed to sell them as in any sense deficient stocks; and I would have been COMPELLED to stay invested. The result would have been very good indeed.

2. But what did I REALLY do? It is very difficult at this stage to calculate what my results have actually been, but I can nevertheless give you an indication. And I shall be very frank indeed. I should be delighted if you can extract answers as frank from others!

Most of the money I made this year was made BEFORE the August correction. With aggression, I outperformed the market clearly all the way up to its peak, and then sold my whole portfolio (about 80% of our super money was in shares) VERY SOON after the peak, thus locking in a very large profit. The 20% was on deposit, and still made tax-free money for me, but not nearly as much as what I had in shares.

I cannot really now - certainly not at once - work out what money I made exactly between 15 June and the time I sold, but as I made it on a large amount of capital it would be quite a lot. Not nearly as much, of course, as I made from 1 January on.

It was, in part, hubris which led me to experiment with the Hilarius selection of 10 stocks that would not be normally my kind of choice. In mid-June, everything still looked very , very strong, and although I had doubts about my selection - which WAS experimental - I anticipated it would even so do better than it has done. If I had chosen shares more "typical" for me that would have been much wiser.

But back to reality! After I sold out prior to going to Europe (which is one very strong reason WHY I sold out in total), I basked in glory for a while while the market went down by about 15%, and triumphantly said "See!".

But not long after, though I was travelling, I saw that the market began to rally. I had difficulty gaining access to computers I could use freely and for some time, but eventually, on 3 September, re-invested about $500,000. That was a small amount of capital, but it was certainly right to get back in, and the money performed very well until the recent correction. As that has now tended to wane, I am quite content about that $500,000. Later, in two stages - and on the late side - I invested another slightly smaller amount. The choice of stocks was OK, I feel, but I should have gone in earlier. Remember, though, that I did not return to Australia until late in October. On the whole, I feel allright about what I am holding.

But, meanwhile, I have far more outside the market than within it, and that is only gaining me about 7% tax-free.

Do I regret this? No, I don't, actually. I have decided that I shall probably not once again expose something like 80%, anyway. More likely, under favourable conditions, 50-60%. And the amount I am keeping in the market right now satisfies me quite well at the moment.

Now the moment of truth.

(1) Has my share selection, and share management, of what I chose to put into the market been better than buying and holding the 10 stocks for Hilarius? I would say so, if I look at the situation pro-rata, but shall reconsider this also after another 6 months or so, because that will probably prove the virtue of my choice the more, I feel, as I don't expect e.g. CCP (a choice for Hilarius) to come up and dislike some of the other shares as well.

(2) Have I, since 15 June, made as much money as 12.8%? That is really your question. The answer would probably have to be NO. Remember, as well, that the fund in my case MUST take out 5% by way of compulsory pay-out to us, per year, which of course weakens performance. But even allowing for that, and for the big gain I still made from 15 June until I sold all shares, I'd have to admit that my large cash component, which is doing no better than 7%, is dragging down the performance of the shares. So, if making a maximum amount of money had been my objective, I would have been better off COMPELLING myself to stay in shares through thick and thin.

However, the BEST result would have been, I am certain, to sell as I did, re-invest 80% soon after mid-August, in stocks of my own choice, and then, as usual, sell only those that were weak and replacing them with stronger ones. In the event there would have been very little need for replacement, and the result would have exceeded that of my Hilarius selection. Indeed, the stocks that I bought on 3 September alone have certainly been better than that lot, easily so.

But as things stand, I would in all honesty have to admit that my desire to hold on to cash (which frankly I don't regret) has been a luxury in that very likely I would have made more with my Hilarius lot - even if only 12.8% (minus 2.5% that must be taken out)! - than I have done in practice.

I add, though, that I mind this the less given the vast amount I made from 1 January until late July/early August. And in years prior to that. All in all, this bull market has been very good to me, and if I am now less willing to invest 80% or so, that is really because investing IS work, if you want to do it well; also, I am happier not to risk the bulk of our capital if I don't need to. But up to about 50-60% if the market is strong: yes.


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resillent1
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Buy & Hold versus Actual results

Ody, your post is a self-examination albeit publicly, so I just want to acknowledge you met my challenge rather than make comments.

I found comparing my own results a beneficial way to examine whether actual results justified my input, through increased returns or risk reduction. I hope you found the same.

Who else is up for the challenge?


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hilarius
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My actual results were far inferior to the portfolio I selected

In fact the failure of my trading purchases to perform was a key factor in my decision to sell up my trading portfolio before the correction, which I advised at the Daily Bread thread

By contrast my near family's buy and hold shares have continued to hold their value, albeit with some recent falls from their highs

For me at least Buy and Hold would have been a clear winner

If that is about to change because of American financial corruption so be it

In a bull market Buy and Hold will in future be my preferred strategy

In a bear market cash will be king

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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smallworld
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TickerTradeDatePriceEx. dateEx. PriceSharesCostValue
GXYLong3/12/20070.9554/12/20070.97104712100,033101538
UNILong3/12/20070.394/12/20070.4256410100,033102531
GRYLong3/12/20070.74/12/20070.705142857100,033100681
ADXLong4/12/20070.255/12/20070.25400000100,03399967
BASLong6/12/20070.167/12/20070.18625000100,033112467
PESLong6/12/20070.8557/12/20070.87116959100,033101721
EXMLong7/12/20070.04710/12/20070.0432127660100,03391456
GXYLong7/12/20071.07510/12/20070.7193023100,03366013
DMLLong10/12/20070.6511/12/20070.585153846100,03389967
PRELong7/12/20070.0612/12/20070.0511666670100,03384967
PESLong10/12/20070.88512/12/20070.825112994100,03393187
SHGLong7/12/20071.87514/12/20071.82553333100,03297300
GRYLong7/12/20070.7214/12/20070.72138889100,03399967
TRHLong10/12/20070.5814/12/20070.63172414100,033108588
ADXLong11/12/20070.26514/12/20070.265377359100,03399967
ANDLong11/12/20071.914/12/20071.9752632100,034103652
EQILong11/12/20073.6214/12/20073.5527624100,03298032
CVNLong13/12/20070.6914/12/20070.67144928100,03397069
IGROpen Long12/12/20070.50514/12/20070.49198020100,03397030
DMLOpen Long12/12/20070.65514/12/20070.65152672100,03399237
NMROpen Long14/12/20071.0514/12/20071.0495238100,03399048

Ending Cash = 1.37M
Ending Capital = 1.67M
Winning % 56%
145 trades
Net Profit % 68.4%

This is the last post on the results. I'm glad its finished - as I have posted much more than I would like to.
I'm slightly disappointed that I couldnt double the capital in 6 month as I felt it was all for the taking. The trades were all based on a mechanical system, one that has evolved somewhat. I personally stopped trading it from the beginning of Dec, and am now trading a new variant of it. There are many trades that I didnt personally like but was entered here for completeness. Despite the shortcomings of this system, I would say that it will outperform most buy and hold strategies.


Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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hilarius
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Smallworld

Congratulations on an absolutely extraordinary performance

My only wish is that you could visit the Gold Coast and become my personal coach

You've proved conclusively that trading can beat investing, but it seems to me that it is a gift which few possess

Certainly the scepticism with which the Mother Superior views my hours at the screen and my vastly inferior results to yours leave me at a loss for words

What I can say is that I am truly thankful to you for adding such an extraordinary effort to this project

You may remember that yesterday was a 6 month measuring point proposed by Ody, for good reasons, and that the official end of the project is Christmas Eve

So please don't let your attendance at midnight mass deter you from preparing one final post :-)

Very Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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lafee
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Hi SW

Well done mate. anyone with half a brain will go through your trades one by one. It is clearly the most important data revealed by this experience or whatever its called.

The increase in volatility over the last six months have caught out many traders/investors that had become used to the low vol bull market since 2003. Your should be proud of your results as your system has adapted well to the changing times. The only measure of a good trader.

Cheers Lafee


Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

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lafee
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As I am going overseas for the next three weeks and will not be trading. My result is 1298K. Conservatively I will add 2% interest to that total making it 1324K as I only held contracts for a total of 10 days.

Cheers Lafee


Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

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hilarius
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Officer Lafee

Another absolutely outstanding result

One I am currently too incompetent to achieve

All I have to do now is to persuade you and Smallworld to invest your proceeds in a nearby Gold Coast apartment

Then I would be your most loyal student

Though I doubt such skill can be taught or learned

Every good wish for the Yuletide and New Year

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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resillent1
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Hmmm

“Anyone with half a brain will go through your trades one by one”

The first one I looked at TRH sold on 14/12/07 for 63 cents – only 10 shares ($6.30) changed hands at this price. Actually only 7510 shares trade above 60cents.

I think anybody with half a brain would understand how different a theoretical system outcome would be to that of reality where brokerage and slippage are real.


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ody
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POST TO APPEAR ON GLAD TIDINGS ON THE BUY AND HOLD PROJECT

I shall shortly post a DRAFT showing the updated figures (six months up to and including yesterday 14 December) for this project, here on Glad Tidings. I emphasis it is a DRAFT, in that it is subject to corrections. I had meant to send the draft separately to Hilarius first, who remains of course the chief auditor, but lack the IT skills for transferring it well enough from IC to another format and back again. So anyone can inspect it. Please report errors to me directly - don't clutter up posts if you can help it. Hilarius and I will consult until we get the figures right. PLEASE NOTE: I will NOT post on this matter on Our Daily Bread, and I will NOT post a corrected version until it is FINAL, after auditing.

I can promise that the figures are most interesting.


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smallworld
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Hilarius,
I will not post any more result, you can just take that all positions are closed and no new positions will be open again.
There is nothing magical about the result. Get/build a system and have enough discipline to trade it. Quite often we start off with our conventional setups that we are comfortable with, we backtest it, modify it, test it again, and enhance it until it suits us. If I'm ever in Queensland, I certainly will want to attend one of your library meetings to talk about mechanical systems.

As I have said very early on in this thread, this system could not be traded with an 1MD account. the outcome is not theoretical as much as it is hypothetical. To those who believes it is possible for them replicate or better this in real life, this will become your reality with hard work and an open mind. To those who dont believe in the result here, what I say is as long as you believe in own ability to achieve great outcome, then the outcomes here dont matter to you. To those who believe neither this system nor themselves can achieve these hypothetical outcomes, what I say is you are correct and you will find whatever you're looking for. I have never had any intention to prove what this system can do in real life, though I am very capable to. Because what I can achieve is only a matter of importance for me, and I dont need to prove it here.
Lafee
Thanks for your kind words

(Message edited by smallworld on December 15, 2007)


Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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lafee
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Reillent,

There is still far more you can learn from SW results than anyone else.

Lafee


Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

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hilarius
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SW

No problem ... I just didn't want you to feel disqualified from including any further gems or nuggets of gold you might have found between now and Christmas

Have a very Merry One

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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ody
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UPDATED (15 DECEMBER) FIGURES FOR THE BUY AND HOLD PROJECT

15 December 2007:

On 19 November I published a corrected report on the figures for May-October. As planned at the time, I now publish those for the CORRECT (ACTUAL) period, from 15 June - 14 December inclusive. There are sure to be mistakes (though hopefully fewer than last time), and these will be corrected after auditing from Hilarius and anyone else. I shall then publish what I hope will be ONE final, corrected version. Again, I have used Stock Doctor figures for the last 6 months up to and including 14 December. The figures run Friday to Friday.

NOTE 1: (1) dividends are NOT included - these are ONLY share prices; (2) costs of transactions are not included (so those who traded frequently (see Section II) have been treated as though they paid no more in commissions than those in SECTION I); (3) capital gains tax is not taken into account.

NOTE 2: The final figure for each participant is that for 14 December. As those differ - often hugely! - for the previous period (May-October), the May-October is, purely for interest, included in SQUARE BRACKETS. They show just what difference is made if the May-June month is disregarded, and the November-December month is included: but it is the SECOND period which is the "real" one, for this experiment.
Those who want to compare the figures in more detail (i.e. those for individual stocks as distinct from totals for individuals) should go back to my post 1620 on this thread (for 19 Nov.) and print that out. The comparison is most illuminating, in my view.

-----------------------------------------------------------
SECTION I: RESULTS OBTAINED IF WE CONSIDER THOSE PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT 10 SHARES AND HELD THEM OVER THE PERIOD 15 June - 14 NOVEMBER [INCLUSIVE].

These are the true participants as the project was originally conceived. Section II will present results for those who in some way departed from the original conditions, so that we can compare like with like. However, the results in Section II are also valuable, and can be compared on a different basis: they too will be reported as best I can.

The order of the participants is arbitrary (simply that of Hilarius's spreadsheet).

(1) RUDY: ASX 22.4%, BHP 24.0%, DJS 2.7%, IMD 77.4%, MND 0.0%, JBH 52.0%, MRM 0.5%, REF -23.6%, RIO 43.1%, HVN 35.8%.

TOTAL RUDY: 23.4% [Previously +26.8%].

(2) RESILLENT 1: CCP -56.7, HST 36.9, MFS -12.4, MLB -10.8, MND 0.0, NUF 2.8, SRX 38.2, TGR 21.8, WBA 57.2, WOR 76.4.

TOTAL RESILLENT 1: 15.3% [+12.8%].

(3) PHILR: SDL 16.6, CMO -44.1, CVN 214.6, NAV -18.5, DRT 6.3, MPO -37.8, SLX -47.9, PNA 48.1, AGS -22.5, RML -53.2.

TOTAL PHILR: 6.1% [+50.6%].

(4) ODY: CAB -16.9, CCP -56.7, IPL 57.5, JBH 52.0, LEI 37.8, MMS -21.3, MLB -10.8, MRM 0.5, SMX 33.3, STS 22.6.

TOTAL ODY: 9.8% [+20.9%].

(5) MRLUNCH: AAR -30.0, CFE -41.2, CNM 35.0, CPN -57.5, DIO 35.1, EVG -8.1, IGC -20.7, FML -21.7, SDL 16.6, VMT -27.7.

TOTAL MRLUNCH: -12% [+60.8%].

(6) STOCKY: PNA 48.1, CFE -41.2, TTY 28.1, EXM 115.0, MXL -55.9, MAR -20.7, MRE -15,2, OEL 2.9, EBI -14.3, AAE -82.9.

TOTAL STOCKY: -3.6 [+15.8%].

(7) GOHARD: AWC -20.2, AXA -1.7, BSL -7.0, CPU -5.2, DRT 6.3, ORI -8.4, OST -4.1, OXR 9.5, WES 1.5, ZFX -24.5.

TOTAL GOHARD: -3.7 [-2.1%].

(8) PETERLOH: SGL -3.8, MGX 141.9, AGM -20.2, MCR -15.9, PEM -28.1, HSP -4.3, TLS [very close to peterloh's TLSCA, which SD doesn't include - actually TLS did a little better] -1.4, TTS -15.3, JST 16.4, BOL -42.0.

TOTAL PETERLOH: 2.7 [+13%].

HILARIUS: AOE 0.3, CSL 23.9, PNA 48.1, QGC 24.7, RSP 73.4, SHG 53.0, SLX -47.9, SMY 33.4, TGR 21.8, WOR 76.4.

TOTAL HILARIUS: 30.7% [+56.6%]

-------------------------------------------------------

SECION II: PARTICIPANTS WHO DID NOT BUY AND HOLD ACCORDING TO THE ORIGINAL PLAN

SURFERDUDE bought 8 stocks and placed two identical amounts in cash. Taken together, the stocks performed well, as follows; they were bought and held, but there weren't 10 of them: MND 0.0, PMM 24.4, WOR 76.4, BHP 24.0, SMX 33.3, OKN 8.9, WHG -7.0, KZL -8.8. If I average out the stocks ONLY (ignoring the cash component and dividing the total by 8), I get 18.9% [+25.38%].

VERMANTE bought and held) just one stock: PDN. TOTAL RETURN: -18.4 % (-19.7%).

007 originally bought 9 stocks and had two (identical??) separate amounts in cash. I understand he also TRADED, so isn't a true buy-and-hold participant. Taken together, the stocks he originally bought performed well if they had been bought and held: APG -16.0, BSA 12.9, CTO 4.9, MND 0.0, MGX 141.9, ORG -1.8, PPC 4.2, SDM 21.6, TEY -22.3. If I average out the stocks ONLY (dividing the total by 9 and ignoring the cash), I get 16.1% [26.8%].

LAFEE and SMALLWORLD traded, and I cannot report on their various individual trades here. Their results are strong, but simply fall outside a "Buy and hold project". I also do not have the time or skill to go through all the steps involved.

However, in recent posts (preceding this one, today, 15 December), they report as follows. Smallworld declared a net proft of 68.4%, far outstripping any buy-and-hold investor, but those investors were not allowed to trade and had their hands tied. Even so, smallworld's result is of course excellent. Lafee announced a result of 1298k, which, as he traded for only 10 days, he then adds 2% interest to, and he thus winds up with 1324. We shall of course never know how these participants would have fared with buy-and-hold rules, or how those obeyed those rules might have fared if they too could have traded.
-------------------------------------------------------

I should now be very keen to learn from the participants, and of course chiefly Hilarius as auditor, where I may have made errors in what I have produced. I'd hope to be able to produce a survey in the same manner (using Stock Doctor) based 6 months from now, if the participants agree, so that we have results for a year, which should be informative. Of course, some stocks may by then have been bought up, collapsed, or whatever! I don't know whether the traders would continue. But we can in principle certainly, as a minimum, once again look at the result of those who bought and held ten shares.

PLEASE NOTE: ANY ERRORS IN THE ARITHMETIC ARE UNINTENDED, BUT EASILY MADE, EVEN IF ONE TRIES HARD TO AVOID THEM. I OFFER APOLOGIES FOR ANY ERRORS IN ADVANCE.

(Message edited by Ody on December 15, 2007)


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hilarius
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Ody

I sent the Dec 14 Group 1 Portfolio results to you by email to assist in our checking

The email contains Portfolio percentage growth totals, but not individual stocks

If you need any results by individual stock just let me know and I will send them

Cheers, Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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hilarius
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Ody

I have a meeting involvement which is about to start lasting until later this afternoon

I would be only too pleased to audit your results immediately, but courtesy to others involved in the meeting prevents it

Please email me re any significant differences to my emailed chart & I will get to it as soon as possible this afternoon or this evening

Cheers, Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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ody
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HILARIUS: Some slight difference all along the line ...

Hilarius, - I am sorry I didn't see the email you sent me privately before posting, as at the time it came through (without my noticing) I was working on the post itself!

However, although our figures are very close and confirm the general pattern, there IS a slight systematic difference. My impression is that Stock Doctor STARTS a day later or earlier than you do. I've checked SD's figures for yesterday (using a representative sample), and they are correct and up to date (.e. "after the bell"). So matters should be the same "this end". I hope you can work out the problem. It is not of the utmost important, ultimately, for our results are in essence very similar, and the deviation affects every single person on a systematic basis, so as to produce a slightly (but not significantly) different result. I used yesterday's closing figures, and instructed SD to show me the results over 6 months, working back from yesterday. I can't however, instruct it to do 6 months according to another definition than its own.

I am sure you will work out just what must have happened.
Sorry, again, that I did not send your email.

I shall do nothing further until we get matters sorted out - if they can be!

There may also be another obvious explanation.


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resillent1
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Lafee

"There is still far more you can learn from SW results than anyone else."

And knowing me so well, you would know.

Your arrogant statement says more about you than me.

Resillent1


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lafee
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Resillent,

It has nothing to do with you. What do you think I am implying? All I am saying is that researching results from a buy and hold strategy over a six month period is next to useless. However, swing trading results provide more fertile data to analyse. Even if SW had lost money the data would still be more valuable.

Lafee


Don't ask an academic if what he does is relevant

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resillent1
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Lafee

apologies - because you addressed the post to me I read it as though you were having a shot.

Agree that analysing SW data is useful, Limiting downside to produce asymmetrical risk/return and then getting a high occurrence to compound the results is going to produce good results. applying it to highly volatile low liquidity stocks is probably going to skew the result from reality but the principles are sound.

The system obviously uses a breakout of some time frame for entry. Not sure of the exit criteria and the system shut and restart criteria is intriguing. Having a look through some of the stocks I suspect there is some sort of momentum selection in there as well.

Not sure how much SW wants to share but I would be interested to see him post on the parameters and back test statistics if he has them.


Resillent1

(Message edited by resillent1 on December 15, 2007)


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hilarius
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Officer Lafee

The selection criteria used to generate trades with an expected life of 6 months or more may be next to valueless for you

They are not next to valueless for those who seek to discover stocks with growth potential over 6 months or longer and whose desire to churn their cash is minimal

If the aim is to select 10 stocks for a portfolio that DOES NOT HAVE TO BE TRADED IF THE ORIGINAL SELECTION CRITERIA REMAIN VALID the exercise is very valuable indeed, if I am that way inclined

It is far more valuable to me to know how to select stocks with inherent strength over a long term than to be a slave to short term trading

This in no way reduces my respect for those who trade short term, but I expect equal respect for the selection process that allows me to buy and hold using valid criteria

It may not suit you personally but that is no reason to term it valueless for others

One day you may be dying in 6 months time and may wish to maximise the return on your capital for the benefit of those you love without having to do more than be reassured that the price action is in line with your original expectations, while devoting your last six months to things that matter more rather than being a slave to a trading screen

I mean no disrespect ... I simply point out that values are different for different people and I respect Smallworld's skill and yours without necessarily wishing to bear all that such skill costs you

I see time as a cost and your methods while financially attractive might well cost more in time than I am interested to invest

My values extend to what I can do with my life besides trading. I hope yours do also. It is a simple question of where one wishes to draw the line with time invested.

I prefer to invest less time in trading and more time in evaluating longer term merits of stocks

The fact that your choice is different should not lead you to condemning others. I don't condemn you. You should not condemn me or those who find value in what has been achieved. Nor should you denigrate what has been achieved merely because it is not your personal preference.

I don't denigrate your trading style. You should not denigrate mine or that of others who are interested in longer term selection criteria

With Best Wishes

Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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ody
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BUY AND HOLD PROJECT: HOW THE FIGURES COME TO BE WHAT THEY ARE, USING STOCK DOCTOR.

The figures are indeed those for six months. Stock doctor has compared the closing figures for 14 December with those for 14 June (not 15 June), as it is comparing them for six months, not six months minus one day.

So, so long as that is understood, all is well.

Sorry I could not provide this insight earlier: we are having guests!


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smallworld
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Resillent1
Sometime there is a fine line between sharing information that help others and giving out information that is commercial in confidence. What I want to do is to help people with their systems and sometimes in doing so, I might choose to share what I do. But I do not favour unwarranted disclosure. If you have questions regarding your system, I am willing to help and when I see a need in sharing my backtest results and/or my "parameters" (whatever that is), I will do so.
Regarding your comments on low liquidity. If you believe it is going to skew my results. Then that is your belief. It is something that I have encountered in the early phases of the system cycle and subsequently addressed it. But I certainly do not wish to defend my results.
However, if you have an issue with low liquidity with your own system and wish to discuss it. I will be most interested.


Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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hilarius
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Good Evening

(1) I am delighted to be able to confirm the accuracy of Ody's Group 1 calculations which begin one day earlier (June 14) than the official starting prices (June 15)

(2) The chart below shows that my calculations and Ody's are virtually identical using his starting date

(3) Some of our figures differ by one decimal point which I feel is small enough to ignore

(4) I've used TLSCA for Peterloh which I understand Ody did not have immediately to hand. A difference of 3 decimal points in the overall portfolio % change is not significant

(5) Technically Gohard and Stocky swap places if the start date 15th June is used, compared to Ody's start date of 14th June, but their levels are virtually the same

(6) Both Ody and I have used Friday 14th December as our closing dates

Thank You Ody for your considerable attention to the project, and the measurement issues

I will separately advise my findings for Surferdude, 007 and Vermante but there is a very low likelihood that Ody and I will differ on those using Ody's starting date

SUGGESTION FOR THE FUTURE OF THE PROJECT

Participants were asked to select on the basis of the outlook for 6 months. I invite you to to produce new portfolios for a further 6 months study, provided you are willing to allow a comparison of the new 10 stock selection with the original selection.

It will be assumed that the motive for offering a new portfolio will be greater certainty that it will survive the vicissitudes ahead with greater strength than the original portfolio

This will provide a once only opportunity to revise original thinking & will be a new and different selection, though some stocks may appear in both the old and new portfolios

All original and new portfolios are to be retained for the second phase of the project if you choose to continue.

Entries from new participants will also be welcome

The rules are simple ... 10 stocks for 6 months with no changes, & with equal opening amounts in each stock at the original start date of June 15 for ongoing portfolios and December 31 for new portfolios

The closing date for new portfolios will be December 31

Measurement will be from December 31 2007 to 30 June 2008 for both old and new portfolios

With Best Wishes to All and Again Many Thanks to Ody

Hilarius

gt


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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smallworld
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Hilarius
Regarding my last post to you. I would like to clarify that while addressing the post to you. The third paragraph was really my comments to all participants in this thread, and is not related to your invitation to extend my participation to Christmas eve which was very much appreciated.


Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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hilarius
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SW

No problem ... I always feel I have good understanding of all that you write

I am feeling guilty that I didn't pursue the swing trading project more actively this year

I would like to re-visit that in the New Year ... my time got taken up in fundamental research which has seemed to work for me until I felt it best to quit the market recently

The more volatile conditions ahead could well benefit the swing trader ... though you don't seem to have done too badly already !!! To put it mildly you have done extraordinarily well

I am also extremely interested in the whole subject of identifying breakouts

Have a very Merry Christmas and a Great New Year

Regards, Hilarius


I come in peace to share my thoughts and to shine my candle light on possible long term opportunities

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smallworld
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Monday, December 24, 2007 - 06:55 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Final result
Hilarius 25.99%
rudy 20.38%
surfer 11.4%
Resillent1 10.58%
Ody 8.86%
Peterloh 5.73%
philr 1.8%
gohard -7.13%
MrLunch -11.38%
Stocky -13.2%
vermante -22.41%


looking at the equity curve,
Hilarius and Rudy was basically neck and neck until about Oct when Hilarius took off. Resillent was leading until Sept when he was overtaken by surfer was also overtaken by hilarius and Rudy.







Rugby is just a game, it isnt a matter of life or death, it is more important than that

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bonkers
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Username: bonkers

Post Number: 51
Registered: 10-2005

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Thursday, June 24, 2010 - 12:59 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Happy Yuletide Everybody Thursday 24/6/2010.
season greetings. Cold here in Melbourne, a little warmer though than the other day extra cold.
Paid 235 yesterday Wednesday 23/6/2010 see how we go.
The lone wolf.
23/6/2010
S&P/ASX 200
4,486.10
-72.20

Shifted down from Sydney great dining at maserati's
yesterday, great restaurant.
Can't wait for the trading day to begin I understand the marklet fell heavily. I likem at the low points.

(Message edited by bonkers on June 24, 2010)

TSX Stocks 15-minute delayed

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