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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Archive through May 03, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Our Daily Bread » Archive through May 03, 2010

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eblode
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Post Number: 1371
Registered: 11-2002

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Thursday, April 22, 2010 - 04:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivor,
A complete lack of emotion is absolutely vital and takes years of training. Your hope of getting it right 70% of your trades indicate immediately to me that you are a novice in this game. Get the "bible" for yourself , a book called " Secrets For Profiting In Bull & Bears Markets" by Stan Weinstein. I have read it over and over again and I'm still learning.One of the advantages that Daytrader has is that he buys days before the published column and so has an advantage of buying at
a lower price. Nevertheless he does pick some real winners and let's them ride north, and immediately sells the losers. I recently picked up MML from his column and now I'm laughing. But you must first learn to walk before you run. Read the book.

Eugenio


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ivor
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Post Number: 546
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Thursday, April 22, 2010 - 05:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Eugenio

Already have the book, and have read it twice already.
And many others to boot.
Seems to me to be more for longer term trading.
I'm not really interested long term, otherwise would still be holding CBA, DJS, FLT etc from early last year.
Have a son who is long term. Never sells anything.Re-invests dividends in more shares etc. etc. Has been buying shares for 15+ years. Has a massive portfolio of blue chips.

Me, I just like to trade. Like the excitement of it.
And I like the way daytrader does it. See that as the way to go. Used to be an investor, now just like to trade.

Thanks for your interest and your comments.
Really appreciate them.
But I'm still looking for the holy graille.

Regards
Ivor







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prater64
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Post Number: 29
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Friday, April 23, 2010 - 09:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Not sure if this is the right place to put this post but here goes anyway. Just thought I'd share a snippit of Cabot's Wealth Advisory that I received yesterday. Think it highlights the emotion thing about trading well really.

April 22, 2010
Salem, Massachusetts
By Paul Goodwin

---

Why You Shouldn't Fall in Love

---

Well, it's happened again. Apple has blown by analysts' expectations for the umpteenth time and the stock is getting another boost.

Apple managed this trick by selling way more iPhones than analysts expected it would. In fact, 8.75 million iPhones flew out of Apple stores, while professional Apple watchers had estimated that just a few more than seven million would be sold. That's a 131% gain in sales from the same quarter last year. And these sales are coming even though everyone who's paying attention knows that Apple will be bringing out a new iPhone model this summer!

Just to be fair to Apple's other products, sales of iMacs, iPod Touch models and Apple desktops and laptops also kicked sand in analysts'
faces.

And the bottom line saw a 90% jump in profit. This translated to an immediate 5% pop in AAPL, the stock.

But I'm not writing about Apple's earnings triumph to tout its stock.
Even though I own an iPhone and an Apple laptop and an iMac, I don't own any Apple stock.

My real topic is the joys and pitfalls of getting too close to a stock emotionally.

Even though I don't own AAPL, I was very pleased to see that the company had scored a big beat. The part of me that revels in the "I'm a Mac ...
And I'm a PC" TV commercials gets a little thrill every time good news comes out about Apple.

And that's a large part of the reason I don't own the stock.

Loyalty is a great attribute in a dog or a friend, but it doesn't have a place in growth investing. My loyalty to the Apple brand and the company's excellent products would probably make me a little less willing to sell the stock in a timely way if it violated my sell discipline.

Since I'm a loyal kind of guy, I make it a point to avoid owning stocks to which I have an emotional connection. Selling is hard enough without trying to work against my own emotions.

Lots of investors have a related problem, which is that they get emotionally attached to almost every stock they own!

My theory is that some people have a high decision threshold when it comes to putting their money at risk. So in order to actually make an investment, they either have to minimize risk (by buying value stocks or using options to hedge the investment) or they have to force themselves to fall in love with a stock.

As any seasoned investor will tell you, falling in love with your stocks is about as good an idea as sending your bank account number over email to a highly placed African official who needs your help to get his millions of dollars safely out of a foreign account.

Earnings season is in full swing, which is kind of like the Lightning Round of a quiz show with much bigger gains and losses at stake. And for every triumphant AAPL you own, you also have a chance of holding a Research in Motion (RIMM), which reported disappointing earnings on March
31 and dipped from 75 to 68 in two days.

The general trend of the market is up right now, in spite of the big down days of the past week. And with the market on your side, your stocks should be doing well.

If your stocks aren't acting right, or if they report earnings that don't come up to scratch, you need to act to safeguard your capital. Don't let loyalty or affection cloud your judgment. You buy stocks to make money.
Hold them to it.


"Opinions: Opinions are like backsides, everyone has one. You just like the look of some more than others."

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bridog
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Post Number: 84
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Friday, April 23, 2010 - 11:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



LGL in pre-open - pending announcement??


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ivor
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Monday, April 26, 2010 - 10:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Eugenio

Have been analysing some of Daytrader's trades, and have been looking at a stock you mentioned, MML, and trying to work out his system of setting stop losses.



Have placed the first two stops as detailed on the website, but not sure where they were placed after that as the website is not up to date.
Can't quite follow the system that's being used.

Being a fellow watcher of The Daytrader, perhaps you're more familiar with his system of placing trading stops.

I would appreciate any info that you can supply me with.
Thanks Eugenio.

Regards
Ivor


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eblode
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Monday, April 26, 2010 - 10:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivor,
The answer is simple. MML is an undervalued stock and Daytrader feels safe by placing his Stop at 4.08. My stop is around 3.93 as this is such a strong share and I want to be sure I don't get knocked out by accident. Generally I place my stops just under the lowest low for the week or in some cases just below the stronger support line. I feel that Daytrader does the same. In any case tomorrow is going to be a a glory day for all of us.

Eugenio


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prater64
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Post Number: 30
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Monday, April 26, 2010 - 11:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivor,

Had a quick look and I think he is placing his stop at the weekly low. Not sure why he didn't move it up on the 14th April.

Cheers
Prater64




"Opinions: Opinions are like backsides, everyone has one. You just like the look of some more than others."

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ody
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010 - 02:05 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Why currently Asian markets are slipping (and others likely to follow)

Slowly but surely, the world is beginning to understand that the Greek crisis IS a crisis, or rather part of an ongoing global crisis, and that in effect - at least as far as Greece is concerned - it is incapable of being solved. Efforts to get the Greeks to discipline themselves will simply not succeed given the nature of that country; and ultimately Merkel is captive to her German electorate, which does not want to hand over money to an incompetent and lazy nation that will never pay it back. That, in a nutshell, is the reason why this affair drags on and on, although Americans, notably, have great difficulty understanding European thinking on this issue.

But not only Americans. When the GFC first started, proper understanding of the financial basics that caused it was remarkably hard to find, and even now people very often do not comprehend that a world in debt cannot ever function properly, so that talk about "recovery" based on debt is inherently nonsensical.

Below is a good article by a writer who, here in Australia, has been exceptionally perceptive about these issues, arguing why the disaster that is Greece is continuing, and why Portugal is now likely to take up the baton. The Eurozone is in for a huge amount of trouble, and anyone rejecting that notion is simply not well-informed or naive, as is anyone believing that this is just a unique European problem which won't affect the rest of the world.

This crisis is and remains a FINANCIAL crisis: the most dangerous kind of crisis, and perhaps in part because only a small group of investors seems to understand the situation that is facing us.
-----------------------------------
From Business Spectator:


Commentary
Last update 9:59 AM, 27 Apr 2010
Karen Maley

Caught in the Greek vortex


Portugal is showing worrying signs that it is about to be the next country to be caught up in the Greek debt vortex, with its interest rates climbing sharply yesterday, while the Lisbon stock market dropped by more than 3 per cent.

The spike in Portuguese interest rates came amid an escalating crisis in Greece, which has resulted in an astronomic rise in the country’s short-term borrowing costs. Investors, anxious that Greece might default on its debt, have now sent yields on two-year Greek government bonds soaring to 13.5 per cent, putting them amongst the highest yields on short-term debt for any country in the world.

Concerns are now mounting that the Greek crisis will infect the other so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain). In particular, investors worry about Portugal, which is burdened with heavy debt and large budget deficits. Portuguese long-term interest rates climbed more than half a percentage point to 5 per cent overnight as the cost of insuring Portuguese and Spanish debt hit fresh records.

The Portuguese Socialist government has committed to slice the budget deficit from 9.4 per cent of GDP last year to 8.3 per cent this year. It hopes its tough austerity plan will be enough to reduce the budget deficit to less than 3 per cent of GDP by 2013.

Meanwhile, Portugal’s foreign minister, Luis Amado, tried to put as much distance as possible between his country and Greece. Le Monde reports that Amado noted that Portugal had not “lied about our statistics. They are reliable, and our macro-economic imbalances aren’t as deep.”

Speaking after a meeting of European Union foreign ministers in Luxembourg, Amado conceded there was a problem with Portuguese competitiveness and the country faced the prospect of weak economic growth. However, he pointed out that the country was implementing deep structural reforms, particularly in its social security system. “That should have an impact on the way markets read the long-term position of Portugal,” he said.

Portugal must come up with $1 billion to lend to Athens. Spain’s contribution to the emergency bailout will be about $5 billion.

Meanwhile, Germany, which has been the subject of fierce criticism from other eurozone countries over its intransigence over Greece, adopted a more conciliatory tone overnight.

Angela Merkel, German chancellor, said Germany “feels an enormous obligation to guarantee the stability of the euro”.

Merkel said Greece leaving the eurozone “was not an option” and expressed her confidence about the negotiations between Greece, the European Union and the IMF. These negotiations are expected to produce a program of rigorous budget cuts and structural reforms that Athens must agree before Germany consents to providing emergency funding.

Greece’s finance minister George Papaconstantinou has foreshadowed that he will soon be announcing plans for reducing Greece’s budget deficit “in a drastic manner” at the end of discussions with the European Union and the IMF.

The IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn and European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet are due in Berlin on Wednesday to brief German politicians on the progress on negotiations with Greece.

In April, the European Union and the IMF agreed to provide Greece with a $60 billion emergency funding package. The eurozone countries would provide funding of $40 billion, at an interest rates of around 5 per cent, while the IMF would provide about $20 billion of funding at an interest rate of around 3 per cent.

These emergency loans would provide Greece with the necessary breathing space to reduce its horrendous budget deficit, which currently stands at 13.6 per cent of GDP, without facing crippling interest rates.

But there are now fears that the eurozone has waited too long to provide Greece with a bailout, and that the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone is set to spread.


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cat_lady
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Tuesday, April 27, 2010 - 02:25 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi ody
do you subscribe to john mauldin's newsletter? rather sobering this week.

go here for the webbased version:

http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2010 /04/26/the-making-of-a-greek-tragedy.aspx

cat lady


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

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ody
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010 - 09:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Some recent developments

Thank you cat lady. John Mauldin seems right to me, at this time. Overnight Wall Street plunged, and the chief reason is not far to seek. This is how Morningstar reported it just now:

"US stocks tumbled broadly on Tuesday in their biggest one-day drop in nearly three months, with Caterpillar, Alcoa and DuPont among the decliners after Standard & Poor's cut its credit ratings on Greece to junk."

So much for the view, expressed from time to time, that matters in Greece are not really of concern to stock markets. The day before the Portuguese market had already fallen by 3% because of increasing worries that Portugal, too, won't be able to pay its debt.

For a country like Greece to have its credit ratings cut to junk, even allowing for S & P's imperfections, is a serious matter, but S & P is merely indicating what any sober assessment of Greece's situation would readily conclude: this country will not repay its debt, and to buy its bonds is dangerous. It is the more dangerous because people continue to misconstrue the supposed rescue by Germany and others. Yes, there has been a promise made of aid: BUT ONLY IF GREECE MEETS VERY SEVERE CONDITIONS AND IS SHOWN TO BE DOING SO. Since almost certainly Greece can't, the appearance of the package cannot be assumed.

The situation is, in fact, highly critical. Should the standoff (which despite all the rhetoric it is) continue, we are heading for a situation where Greece may feel forced to leave the EU and seek money purely and only from the IMF, which is not bound by the EU's rules for member states.

Potentially that event could lead to a collapse of the Euro, as Euroland would be shown to be an unworkable concept. Germany (to confine attention just to that, as the main player) is in a cleft stick. There is, in fact, no solution to the whole problem posed by Greece and other such nations, because Euroland has no mechanism for coping with it, and although the European Union would in theory like to continue as a union, it may not be able to do so. That, finally, is one of the major reasons why this whole matter is so serious. The Euro as a currency is under very serious threat because Euroland as an entity is.


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ody
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010 - 10:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Our market is virtually certain to get hammered today

Along with other share markets, ours can at present only go down. The European situation is very serious, with ramifications throughout the globe. The US$ is up as a supposedly "safer" currency,and - of course - gold is up on the assumption that if just about everything else collapses you seek protection in this perennial standby. That is why people like Rudy and I bought into it some time ago - not unwisely, even if on the early side. But with crises like these you CAN predict that they will happen, but not just when. So, if you see the trouble, you take steps before the time.

Those long in the market today should consider it likely that their shares will plunge. Banks will probably suffer as the whole financial scene is once again under a cloud, though our banks are a lot stronger than most. Resources will PARTICULARLY cop it - have already done so overnight - as confidence is knocked for six. As a result, the Aussie dollar is also down somewhat against the US$. If this rout continues, look for falling resources stocks on the share markets, and a lower Australian dollar.

It is possible, of course, that initially we shall see TOO MUCH panic: nevertheless, a fall at this moment should NOT be regarded (for those who like to go long) as a "buying opportunity". On the contrary: seek shelter. Markets almost certainly will correct, at long last, and it will be possible, then, to buy more cheaply than today. Quite likely MUCH more cheaply, unless the European scene somehow miraculously improves. Probably it won't, because there is no miracle cure for disasters that cannot really be avoided.

That is why on this thread there have been so many warnings from a number of us about the significance of the serious financial flaws that remain in existence globally and that are a threat to share markets. European troubles are evidence of this trouble, and should certainly not be seen as confined to Europe: they will not only affect the international scene, but are evidence of the wider global problem that remains unsolved and continues to pose danger.
---------------------------------------------------------
Here is some further informative material from another website:

US EQUITIES MARKETS
At the close: Dow: 10,991.99 (down 213.04 or 1.9%); S&P 500: 1,183.71 (down 28.34 or 2.3%); NASDAQ: 2,471.47(down 51.48 or 2.0%).
US equities markets tumbled in Tuesday trading, as investors were again confronted by negative news stories relating to European sovereign debt risk. The Dow went back under 11,000. Some better than expected April Conference Board consumer confidence index data failed to get a look in, after Standard & Poor’s downgraded credit ratings for both Greece and Portugal (Greece now has junk bond status!). The February S&P/Case-Shiller home price index stats, also released on the day, failed to excite, coming in under market expectations. With the pace of foreclosures not expected to let up any time soon, limited scope exists for a US housing recovery over the balance of 2010.
Investor sentiment was already scratchy, after the Shanghai Composite index declined by 2%+ in Tuesday Asian markets. There was really no where to hide in Tuesday’s US markets sell-down, with all 10 of the S&P 500’s industrial sectors finishing the day in the red. The worst performed on an interday percent basis were Financials (-3.3%), Basic Materials (-3.3%, as metals prices headed south at pace), Energy (-2.8%, as crude prices dropped) and Industrials (-2.6%). Goldman Sachs, currently under the pump in a Congressional hearing, actually managed a small gain on the day – one of the only two 79 S&P 500 Financials to finish ahead of respective prior day closes.

US TREASURIES
US Treasuries rallied by 9-14 basis points in Tuesday trading, as US government debt became a must have as European sovereign risk concerns became more acute. The record-tying US$44B 2-year Treasury note auction held on the day barely touched the sides. At the same time, 10-year note yields dropped to lows last seen in late March.

COMMODITIES
Basic metals and energy prices were smacked in Tuesday LME and New York trading, as news of reduced credit ratings for Greece and Portugal hit traders’ screens. Aluminium, copper and nickel led the way down in the 19 commodities tracked by the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index. Crude oil prices slipped to lows last seen more than a week ago, as global stock markets shivered and the US$ rallied.
However, gold prices trended higher in overnight markets as safe havens were the place to be in the face of amplified sovereign debt concerns. The precious metal advanced for a third successive trading day, taking spot prices to highs last seen a fortnight ago. Not even a US$ rally could snuff out this desire for “safety”.

EUROPEAN BOURSES
European stock markets were hammered in Tuesday trading, as sovereign debt concerns again dominated front page news.Investors were particularly nervous about near term prospects for the so-called PIIGS economies (the IBEX 35 benchmark was the “dog of the day”, falling by 4%+). Big Basic Resource stocks like BHP Billiton Ltd, Rio Tinto and Xstrata Plc lost ground in the face of crashing metals and energy prices. European banks were on the back foot on elevated sovereign debt concerns. Spanish banks Banco Popular Espanol SA added further fuel to a selling fire, after releasing a disappointing first quarter result. In all the gloom, a good first quarter profit released by Deutsche bank AG failed to get the attention it desired (its profit was up 48%, thanks to excellent investment bank earnings). Credit-default swaps on Greece’s government bonds climbed by 1.11 percentage points, to 821 basis points on news that Standard & Poor’s had lowered Greece’s debt credit rating to junk status. Yields on Greece’s two-year notes surged above 18%. Credit default swaps for Portuguese debt rose by 54 basis points to 365 after that country was also hit by an S&P ratings downgrade. The Stoxx Europe 600 index declined by 3.1% in Tuesday trading, its largest interday collapse since back on 26 November 2009.

CURRENCIES
The euro did its best impression of persona non grata in Tuesday New York trading, with it dropping under the US$1.32mark for the first time since April 2009. Its quick-fire fall from grace came on news that Standard & Poor’s had lowered Greece’s debt credit rating to junk status and also cut Portugal’s rating. S&P lowered its long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Greece to BB+ and B, respectively, from BBB+ and A-2. The outlook is still “negative”. Portugal’s long-term local and foreign currency sovereign issuer credit ratings were cut from A+ to A- at S&P, with the ratings agency justifying its move on the basis of “fiscal and economic structural” weakness. This latest credit rating agency move added to investor fears that the EU’s ability to contain the European sovereign debt crisis was becoming much more difficult. The much better than expected US consumer confidence data also bolstered the greenback on the day. The A$ ceded ground to a resurgent US$ as sovereign debt concerns-induced safe haven buying dominated. Tumbling commodity prices also did not help the mix. The Aussie slipped back towards US$0.915 for the first time since late March. Other high yielding currencies like the South African rand were also sold down.


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ivor
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010 - 12:56 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello Eugenio & Prater64

Have worked out how Daytrader places his stops by watching his trade for MML



Places his stop at the next spike low that has a higher low on each side.
This week he would have moved his stop up to $4.46 by my calculation.
Seems to work this way on all of his trades.
Quite a smart way to operate in my opinion.

Regards
Ivor


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gdd3
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010 - 02:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ivor...Nice post, I think correct observation and not a bad Trailing Stop Strategy in a trending stock....with the 'unwritten' assumption that you only stop out if there is a daily close below the trailing stop level!

To illustrate this further, have a look at GRR and 'assume' Daytrader entered on the 2nd of March at 38.5c(as his system should have), with the initial stop @ 34c(shown in pink), then the subsequent 'trailing stops' are shown in white(well a close below these areas). This 'Stop System' would still have you in...albeit a close today below 67c would be the trigger to be out if not out already!

Incidently, Craig's T.A.Z. trailing Stop recommendation would have 'technically' had you out on April 16th at 68c(once you went below the low of the April 14th candle after making a new high on the 15th) but T.A.Z. got you in at 33c.






Cheers
Dolphin

P.S. Another T.A.Z. potential entry could be just around the corner...but may be after GRR hits the low 60's...I'm watching with interest depending on the overall market 'sentiment' in the next few day's.


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market_mad
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010 - 03:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



G'day all,

Been on hols for the past few days and I've come back to the midst of a long overdue selloff!

My targets for the next couple of days are to go down to 4700.

I think we will work our way towards 4500 over the next couple of months.

Greece(dirty word)as Ody has pointed out, has not gone away and it looks like Europe is going to end up a basket case.

Good to see the VIX spike up last night - where are all those doubters now when I said that it was at extremely low levels and a sell off looked likely and that the VIX looked primed to spike?? Hmmm.

Don't worry Eugenio - I won't rub it in that MQG is in the $40's now...

Cheers
MM


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ivor
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Wednesday, April 28, 2010 - 04:44 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin

This method of setting stops looks very good to me.
Think I'll adopt it from now on.

However Daytrader bought in to GRR at 67c and had a trailing stop moved up to 68c. So he's now stopped out, same as I am.
Sold out this arvo, along with all my other holdings.
Now in 100% cash.

Don't know if the market is going up or down. Will wait and see from the sidelines. Can always buy in again on any signs of an uptrend.

Think I'll go and knock off a Shiraz (or two).

Regards
Ivor


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ody
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Thursday, April 29, 2010 - 12:17 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



From Daily Reckoning Australia: the way the crisis is unfolding

--------------------
--"Euro debt crisis deepens as 'contagion' spreads from Greece to Spain," lead today's Independent. And now you get the feeling that policy makers only have a couple of bullets left in their gun to prevent a bigger panic in the market. Of course, maybe it just feels that way because of the drumbeat of coverage in the media. But what is the likelihood of the Greek debt crisis becoming a "contagion" across Europe and beyond?

--Well the simple matter is that many nations have been living beyond their means and investors are beginning to doubt governments are good credit risks. That's saying something, when governments can simply confiscate from the public the money needed to pay bond holders. But debt-to-GDP levels are now so high across the Western world that bond investors (and ratings agencies) are having serious doubts.

--The credits ratings analysts at Standard and Poor's have been busy. A day after downgrading Greek and Portuguese debt, the analysts downgraded Spanish debt too. And now words like "viral" and "contagion" are…uh…spreading like…a disease.

--"The contagion from a Greek default could also spread to much larger economies where the public finances are also fragile, including the U.K. and, perhaps the biggest risk of all, Japan,"said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics. Jessop somehow left out the U.S, which is astonishing given that the U.S. Treasury Department will auction US$129 billion in new debt this week. Yields on 2-year, 10-year and 30-year U.S. debt all rose (and prices fell).

--But now the metaphors get complicated. You're going to start hearing a lot of commentators say that this is a crisis of confidence. But when is the last time you stopped a cold with a strong sense of self belief?

--To say the sovereign debt crisis is just a crisis of confidence is to ignore Europe's (and Japan's, and the U.K.'s, and America's) failing fiscal welfare state model. This model is not surviving its first contact with the inevitable math of demography, where you have more pensioners and rising health care costs and fewer tax receipts.

--That's why it's not a question of confidence. It's a question of debt default. Who's going to go first?

--The alternative being contemplated is a kind of firebreak engineered by the IMF and the European Central Bank. These organisations would draw "a line in the sand" and provide a large line of credit or loan guarantees to all the troubled nations of Europe. And how much would THAT cost?

--According to the good people at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, about €600, or A$857 billion. That seems like a lot of money. And that seems like a big gamble. You try and restore confidence by putting a trillion dollars on the table and saying, "Look at THAT!"

--But that looks more like bravado than real self-confidence. So it looks like we'll see how durable the common currency project is. And in the meantime, that ought to mean more U.S. dollar and gold strength. In fact, with so many governments in so many places printing so much money, it shouldn't surprise you to see a whole basket of commodities benefit...for now.

--However this just pushes out into time and amplifies in size the next phase of the crisis. It's all, at heart, a debt crisis. And before it's over we reckon there will be both collapsing asset values AND hyperinflation. But we've been over that ground before so we won't [repeat] it here.

--And as bad as the problems in Europe and America and Japan could get, the biggest threat to Australia - by far - is the deflation of China's credit bubble. It's the proverbial elephant in the room. It's the one most important assumption about Australia's fiscal and economic forecasts that is not seriously examined or rigorously questioned...mostly because what might result if China runs off the rails is too scary to think about.

--But it IS worth thinking about. And planning for. Because whether you like it or not, it is coming anyway. China's story is inextricably linked with the great credit bubble of the last twenty years. Investment has given way to speculation and credit growth has fuelled a construction boom, all of which has been very good for Australian resource stocks. But for how much longer?


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ody
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Thursday, April 29, 2010 - 01:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hold your breath while the Rudd government may be about to introduce punitive taxes on those who want to strengthen their super

There have always been bureaucrats in Australia who view super as a "rort": the illegitimate putting aside of money which, they feel, should be taxed, and for which no special tax concessions should be provided.

These are the people who feel it is quite OK if houses can be bought for yourself without paying ANY tax whenever you sell, and that the taxpayer should support - heavily - anyone buying houses for investment.

Already, the fact that this abominable government decided to curtail severely the amount accumulators could put aside by way of salary savings has been very harmful to super, and has helped to create a yet bigger housing bubble. Unless you provide an incentive to people to save for their old age, by means of tax incentives, they will not do so - particularly if buying property is from a taxation viewpoint so very much more attractive.

Now Ken Henry - that super bureaucrat who thinks about everything theoretically and has no understanding of what happens within economies in the real world - has come up with the idea that those accumulating capital for their super funds should be taxed 30%, not the current 15%. Already the 15% works as a disincentive, and it is not difficult to see that 30% will largely destroy any initiative for people to contribute to their super.

Super contributions will greatly diminish; industry in this country - which is where money should go - will have much less money invested in it; while by contrast house prices, which are already much higher than anywhere else in the world, will bubble up further. We have a potential disaster caused by completely skewed, anti-productive and biassed measures here.

Yet reportedly the Rudd government, with its typical economic naivety, recklessness and incompetence, is apparently taking this further assault on those saving for their super seriously. Apparently anyone putting money away for super is "rich" instead of saving for their old age. Saving for super is a "rort", but not paying tax when you sell your family home, or engaging in negative gearing for buying another (or several more) is not.

Policies like these are an absolute disaster for this country. The reduction in the salary savings quota has already done a great deal of harm, but this envisaged 30% would be a great blow - probably a crippling one - for many would-be super investors/savers. This ignorant government would apparently rather see housing bubbles, unproductive and underfunded Australian companies, and a huge increase in the general pension (for that would be needed) as preferable.

Just about anything Ken Henry proposes should be seen as likely to be economically impractical and misjudged. He was for example the main architect (in advising Rudd and Swan) in creating the huge bubble, as a result of the highest stimulus package in the world to the strongest OECD economy, that we are now contending with.

We have a completely distorted economy as a result of this artificial and unnecessarily large handout, with the economy still not back to anything like a realistic level of performance while taxpayers continue to pour money into an economy already too much in high gear, even though some stimulus reductions are now occurring.

And let us also think of what, typically, that so-very-necessary "job-creating" taxpayers' money has been spent on. PERMANENT EMPLOYMENT?? What a laugh. The insulation disaster has now harmed many legitimate workers who cannot continue as the scheme has become an acute danger for a very large number of homes. It was never going to create more than temporary jobs anyway. Deaths, fires in more than 120,000 homes, and incompetent or fraudulent workers, have ruined this scheme. In the case of schools, much has been built that should not have been, and vice versa. The now withdrawn ETS scheme has already caused massive economic disarray, with more to follow.

The closest parallel to this kind of economic incompetence and destructiveness that comes to my mind is that of the Whitlam government, which was also inept, but - I would grant it - at least clearer in its objectives. This government is entirely inconsistent in what it does; it has no clear grasp of the real world; it gets economic matters, wrong almost all of the time; it is inconsistent and unpredictable in its implementation of plans; and from the viewpoint of any investors concerned about the welfare of this country it is in most ways a huge disaster. Its debt is colossal, yet there is no sign of the PM grasping that or being concerned. I would have to go back a long way into my life to find a government economically as inept and dangerous as this one.

But stand by for more nonsense proposed by Mr Henry, and no doubt not always accepted by the government, but including measures probably embraced several times, and almost always of the wrong kind, whether they are or are not. This 30% charge on super would be a dandy of an example of fiscal irresponsibility and incompetence.
---------------------------------------------------------
Huge increase in super contributions tax flagged

Reuters

The federal government is considering almost doubling the tax on superannuation contributions from 15 per cent to as much as 30 per cent under the Henry tax review, according to The Australian Financial Review.

The government will release the Henry review of the tax system on Sunday, along with its policy response to the review.

The review is expected to touch on the $1.2 trillion superannuation system, which is funded largely by employers and effectively offers major tax breaks to wealthy Australians able to divert their income into retirement accounts.

A rise in tax on contributions is likely to be one of the reforms nominated by the review's head, Treasury Department boss Ken Henry, and considered by the government, the AFR said, citing unnamed sources.


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jaded
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Thursday, April 29, 2010 - 02:08 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




ody wrote on Thursday, April 29, 2010 - 01:19 pm:

Hold your breath




Been smoking too long to hold my breath for long these days,ody


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cat_lady
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Thursday, April 29, 2010 - 02:20 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody

absolutely spot on! anecdotal as the following may be my husband after reading the article about the increase in super taxes immediately said to me, why bother with super, I think we should buy an investment property instead. this is from someone who has always firmly said no about the idea of using negative gearing for any investment, prefering to contribute to super and pay tax.

it is probably the most stupid incompetent idea I've ever seen and would not be suprised to find it's one of those "fishing expedition" type leaks. get everyone het up about a 100% increase but come out with "only" 50% increase which is OK because it's NOT 100%.

one article I read had the commentary that this increase is to ensure a "better superannuation system for all" ???!!!??? not sure how they came up with that idea.

I had been totally prepared to give rudd's government the benefit of the doubt and many of their plans DID sound promising yet they've stuffed up at every term. I still can't understand why commentators are saying that they will win another term. I'd be prepared to vote for a donkey (not a stretch) rather than Rudd. interesting to note that even the ABC appears to be jack of Rudd. Even laurie oakes called him cowardly. next there'll be pigs flying over brisbane.

cat lady


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

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market_mad
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Jaded,

Don't know if you saw on the news wires, but the government are raising taxes on smokes by 25% from midnight tonight - as a smoker, you'd better load up this avo!

Ody,

Great post there - I think when you look at leaders all over the world at the moment, they are all under huge pressure and are making monumental mistakes almost in unison - Obama is under heavy critism for his health care, Brown in the UK is under the cosh big time and it looks as though it's going to be a hung parliament over there.

KRudd and Swanny - what a joke. Swan is actually one of the worst politicians I have ever heard speak - he really doesnt't seem to have a clue. As for Rudd - well don't get me started on that fool.

Cat Lady, I too was prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt when they first moved into power but I will be voting for the same donkey you are at the next election!!

Heavy volume on our markets today - could this indicate some selling pressure to come into play tonight in the US - my bet is yes.

Cheers

MM

PS Where is Eugenio? I was flicking through the channels the other night and happened to catch a guy being introduced on Australia's Got Talent - his name was Eugenio (wasn't watchin honest!) he was 75 and sang his heart out - wasn't you by any chance Eugene??


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ody
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Well, I think we are getting agreed about Rudd, at least ...

Thanks, catlady and MM. Like you, I was prepared to give Rudd the benefit of the doubt when he got in. I now think we are being "governed" (given the chaos, and their own lack of self-government, the term seems wrong) by people who just have no idea of what they are doing - no true sense of direction, no real convictions, not the slightest idea of how to implement things, what barriers they will be up against, and how you need to be able to play politics if you are to get things done. Ineptitude and incompetence are by now to me the most striking characteristics, no matter whether on specific issues they may be right or wrong. I honestly cannot remember when, during my by now comparatively long life, and interested in politics from an early age, I have seen a bunch so ERRATIC and ILL-ORGANISED.

Financially, they are illiterate, as is all too obvious from this latest news (anecdotal or not) about super. Just not a clue about what they would set in motion. It is all theory, without thinking through what happens IN THE REAL WORLD. That is, and I say this as someone with a leftist background, one of the most frequent failings of the "soft" left - the idealists, bureacrats, well-meaning teachers (like my own parents) etc who do not understand economics, although they are always full of moralistic judgements and ready to dismantle what is working well, both for themselves and the money-making people they hate.

I can genuinely claim to be in principle very much in tune with the Australian electorate: the only outcome I predicted wrongly, since coming here in 1976, was Keating's defeat of Hewson. But that was because voters (enough of them) changed their minds JUST before the election.

I now think that the Government is becoming so rudderless (pun intended) and obviously has lost the plot so badly - in both policies, implementation, and politics - that for the first time a one-term Labor government is beginning to look a very real possibility. Almost everyone, left or right, and even many in the Labor party, hold Rudd in utter contempt about his volte-face re the ETS scheme - both those who approved of his earlier stance on this and those who didn't. The insulation disaster is still one of great danger both in terms of safety and financially, and the idiotic way that school buildings have been built when not needed or with corruption involved is close behind, though not, of course, as dangerous. These are a few things the government HAS done ...

Much of what we have seen is, however, sheer rhetoric, no performance, and frequent changes of course which are unsettling and bad management. The fiscal stimulus is the only really important thing, I feel, for which Rudd and Swan are still attracting praise, but it will diminish over time as it becomes obvious how much money has been squandered, and how doubtful the whole size of the packages was.

I am not writing them off yet, but I think that many floating voters are in the process of changing their minds. Personally I cannot vote in that I can't hold dual citizenship, but if I had done I would have voted for Rudd so as to give Labor another chance and because I would not have wanted another term of Howard after so many years (I WOULD have voted for Costello, though I don't think that he would necessarily have got in). Now, if I went to the ballot box, I'd vote Rudd out. Of THAT, at least, I am certain. I think he is a parody of what a manager should be like, and unfit to govern "this great nation of ours". And with each step taken my conviction that he is actually a DANGER to the country grows stronger.

As an investor - and this is what after all we should here concentrate on - one should be strongly influenced by his waywardness, towards adopting caution, and make sure one does not take a decision which one may regret because Labor might introduce a change which would negatively affect it.


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kev
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Thursday, April 29, 2010 - 07:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



VOTE 1 - THE DONKEY


He's got my vote!


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bridog
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Friday, April 30, 2010 - 01:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Great political posts, people, I share your sentiments.

It's hugeness and boldness of the government spin thats a jaw dropper for me. All the spin about climate change and the scorn heaped upon anybody that didn't share the party view, and now its demoted for 3 years. The other day I picked up an old paper that I found lying around and was reminded that Rudd went to Copenhagen with a crew of 93. What the!!! Even Gordon Brown's team from UK was only 38. And what were 93 people from Oz supposed to do in Copenhagen?

Then there was the TV footage of him obviously distancing himself from an asian lady sitting next to him, what a ponce.

Then came Peter Garrett's new CD, Batts are Burning featuring Midnight Foil, have you heard that one? Both he and Rudd totally discredited over that fiasco.

Then there was the promise to build 200 child care centres which were "urgently needed". Now after building 20 we don't need any more as there is enough already.

Now the super? How much can a Koala bear?

Cheers all


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baysider
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Friday, April 30, 2010 - 08:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wait until big tobacco get into Rudd. He spins that his plan will definately happen, no branding on packs from 2012. Once again my bet is he'll have to back down and nothing will happen because Philip Morris and BAT aren't going to give up their brands without a BIG fight and BIG compensation even in the unlikely event they agree to no branding. All talk and posturing and NO ACTION, that's K Rudd in my opinion.


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prater64
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Personally at the last election I didn't vote for Kevin in 07. Couldn't stand how he came across, the type of 'I don't like that guy he comes across as a weasel' type of impression to me.

I personally thought if Australia ever wanted to end up in the toilet they chose the right guy PM Krud, sorry K. Rudd.

My view on his political aspirations is someone trying to implement their semi-socialist view of politics but having absolutely no clue on what they are doing or how to go about it. What is worse is he can't even model it on one that is semi-working like Singapore.

When Howard went people wanted a change. The least I can say about him was that even though I didn't agree with/like some of his decisions at least he had his convictions and stood by them. Can't stand the current political flip flopping to butter up voters.

Also has anyone else noted how the current government flips between K.Rudd and Gilard when the kitchen gets too hot for one of them?...Also how they all speak and have the same body language when being interviewed (the head nods and segmented sentences). The PR spin machine trainers are working in high gear in CNB that is for sure.

As for super and the current tobacco issues, you need to spend money to make money don't you know. So you get into a fight over intellectual property which helps keep lawyers on both sides employed. Extra super tax means that the aging generation, saved by the elimination of smoking as well, will all be on pensions. So you need more government workers, and again this will mean lower unemployment rates. This is all ok because you've been taxing peoples super to pay for all of it. In the mean time you can give tax cuts to the poor and the rich so that the middle income earners can pay for the super for everyone when they all get old. The longer the current government stays the more I look forward to working overseas, paying less tax and coming home in my old age to be a burden on the ailing medical system while collecting my pension.

Thanks for the chance to rant btw
Prater64


"Opinions: Opinions are like backsides, everyone has one. You just like the look of some more than others."

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ken
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Friday, April 30, 2010 - 09:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Regarding the plain packaging of cigarettes, the government is not taking their trademarks away, and not letting others use them.

The companies will still own the intellectual property, so perhaps no compensation would be payable? They can't say they haven't had any value out of their use.


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cat_lady
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Friday, April 30, 2010 - 12:16 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody

they want to get us at all sides!!!

did you read this:

Business Spectator site:

The Cooper Review into superannuation will propose the introduction of new legislation to govern self-managed retirement funds, and a number of tougher rules, The Australian Financial Review reports.

Under the changes, which will have to be adopted by the federal government, do-it-yourself (DIY) funds will not be able to hold assets such as paintings, stamps and jewellery.

The paper also says the DIY funds will not be able to make loans to related businesses.

END

the hypocracy continues on the super debate. swan was interviewed this morning on 4bc. a caller rang up and challenged swan on the following:

"you went into the last election promising that you would not tamper with super"

answer from Swan:

"the $25 thousand cap only hurts the wealthy" (HA! my comment) followed by the truly gobsmaking comment "we did not break our promise to NOT make changes to super"????!!!!

2nd point

"the $25K cap does not apply to public servants or politicions - do you think that fair"

answer:

"we realise that super arrangements for the public servants are not popular with the general public"

I'm still shaking from anger at the entire interview.

cat lady


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

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bridog
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Friday, April 30, 2010 - 12:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Couldn't help myself, bought some NHC for $4.94.


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ody
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Hi catlady,

I share your anger, not least on behalf of people like yourself and the nation as a whole, as I cannot for myself complain, being - from what I hear so far - not likely to be the target of much, or any, change (in our super fund, anyway).

But Henry has, to my mind, always been an idiot, and much will either not be accepted by Rudd and Swan, or, if it is, lead the more strongly to a backlash against that incompetent and reckless government.

Everything that is happening, actually, seems to me to show that the government is in the process of becoming largely dysfunctional, and rapidly losing support. In a way, we must hope for several more crazy ideas, so that they get voted out unambiguously after just one term in office. That is now beginning to look like a real likelihood, as they are obviously further and further out of touch with the voters.


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market_mad
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It seems to me like the sharemarket isn't too keen on Henry either - after a rousing couple of sessions on Wall Street our market has gone nowhere...

I honestly think our market is very worried about what changes are going to come about and how that will affect listed companies.

Given the performance of Wall Street over the past couple of sessions we should have been back to around the 4900 level.

Swanny is a tool

Cheers
MM


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rdumas
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Hi folks,

I've been engaged in a lot of non market related activities of late and this will continue until late next week. There is one thing that is worth noting at this stage. It does look as if the S&P500 may finally be lining up more with the rest of the globe in terms of being bearish. There is the distinct possibility that we may have formed a Head and Shoulders pattern in this index as detailed in the following chart.




From an Elliott Wave perspective, it could be that we have seen waves 1 and 2 of a 5 wave move down completed and we are about to get a third wave which could scare the pants off the bulls. We quite often get the situation where a wave 1 projected by 100% gets the termination point of either a wave 3 or a wave 5 so the H&S pattern target of 1143 is well on the cards.

The less bearish scenario would be that we only get a 3 wave move down and we have seen the first 2 waves completed. Under this less bearish scenario we could get a 3rd wave of around equal length to that of wave 1 just having a target around the 1170~1175 levels before a rebound to new highs. I think that this latter scenario is what the bulls would be praying for.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Saturday, May 01, 2010 - 02:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Not sure if anyone is getting the indicators thread delvered to their inbox - I have reactivated the Hindenburg Omen thread yesterday and thought I might have had a response by now.


https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/9/613928.html


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baysider
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Monday, May 03, 2010 - 09:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Should be an interesting day for BHP and RIO, I'm glad I don't hold.
I can feel an Ody special diatribe coming on!

Markets are certainly looking difficult at the moment, money does seem to be returning from foreign markets to the US hence their index is looking vastly better than ours recently. As the Us reporting season draws to a close I'm wondering if they will have run out of good news and may stall at this point. Is all the good news priced in now?

The contagion in Europe seems to spreading fast, ebola was mentioned - the only way to survive is to cut off the offending limb.
Personally I'm only holding 2 gold stocks and NVT which has held up well and looking pretty solid.


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ody
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Monday, May 03, 2010 - 10:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Maaterials down by 3.66% at the open

No need for any lengthy diatribe, Baysider! I think most thinking people can see the huge danger Rudd is exposing this country to with this outrageous tax on the one sector of the economy able to take us through tough times, except that if China at any point collapses through overheating (with many empty cities built, for example), the resources industry here would also collapse, which would make the tax yet more foolish. The Labor government has the blind sense that nothing can happen to China or our main source of wealth, which is dependent on it. It is a thoroughly incompetent and irresponsible government, in my view.


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rdumas
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Monday, May 03, 2010 - 10:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible EW Count for XJO

Hi folks,

Further to my previous post on the S&P500 I thought that there might be some people interested in my current view of the price action for the XJO.

I emailed the chart below to some of my friends last Friday on my current favoured EW count for the XJO. What I anticipate is that the index will complete the 5th sub wave of wave 3 today and spend several days forming wave 4. As the wave 2 pattern was sharp, under the 'alternation' guidelines there is a high probability that wave 4 will be either a Flat or Triangle pattern.





Once wave 4 completes there would be a further drop in wave 5.

Should this pattern play out then we would have had a 5 wave move down for the first part of the larger pattern. At this stage I won't elaborate on the further parts of the larger pattern as we need to validate the above pattern first.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, May 03, 2010 - 10:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Our Main Sectors Looking Vulnerable

Both of our major sectors are looking vulnerable at present. The Materials sector (XMJ) has finally slipped out of a rising channel that it has traded within since December 2008. This chart doesn't have today's price action displayed so things are not looking good for this sector.



I agree with Ody's view of the Rudd government's tax slug on the Materials sector. China's real estate bubble is extremely dangerous and could very well bring down its current growth rate and our commodity boom along with it. The sooner we get rid of these idiots the better.

The Financials excluding LPT's (XXJ) sector is also moving into an area that is looking quite serious. It is trading well and truly at the lower portion of a much larger channel than that of the XMJ and really needs to remain within that lower channel boundary.






I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ken
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Ody,

If China collapses and resource prices decrease, the super-tax on resources will decrease or disappear. This has the character of an inbuilt stabiliser for the resource companies.


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deanrosario
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Monday, May 03, 2010 - 12:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



It's amazing how blinkered people get when they are driven by self-interest and greed.

I say ...

BRAVO to the PM Rudd, Treasurer Swan and the ALP for sending out this one clear message:

taxpayers deserve a bigger share of the profits made from digging up our country

Before the mining boom, $1 in every $3 of resource profits went to us - the citizens of this country - through royalties and resource charges.

Now, we - the citizens of this country - only get $1 in every $7.

Truly disgusting neglect by the prior LIB/NAT government, who obviously didn't want to have us all share in the country's wealth.

So, I again say BRAVO to the ALP government for demonstrating it does not think it is fair that the OUR SHARE of wealth - created by OUR mud and rocks - should have fallen so much through the biggest and most profitable mining boom.


"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

"Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane." Ellis Boyd "Red" Redding, played by Morgan Freeman, in 'The Shawshank Redemption'.

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ody
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Dean:

The economic dangers to both the mining industry with a 40% tax on profits do not only hit it, but also the very large number of Australians who own shares in the major mining companies, i.e. the vast majority of what Rudd likes to call "the working people" of Australia, and certainly all those that I would myself call those people in Australia who are in the workforce in some capacity or other and earn money as a result of their being in it. Those owning shares in BHP, RIO, etc are not only direct investors: virtually all super funds are exposed to those stocks. So if those companies do well, so do Australians generally. The need to skim 40% off their profits is not at all apparent, and in the hands of this government will almost certainly lead to further squandering. We have seen how they have wasted money on completely superfluous school halls, and especially an insulation scheme that is even now an acute danger and ineffective. Why should one believe that this bunch of incompetents would do any better with a tax windfall that they in part intend to use for "infrastructure"? We KNOW that most of what they touch gets stuffed up, or that they won't do what they promise. So, quite apart even from the idiocy of maiming the goose that lays the golden eggs, i.e. the resources industry, which will definitely function less well and attract less investment now, there is the likelihood that the money taken from the companies will be badly spent.

You see far too sharp - and quite an inaccurate - division between what you consider to be the wealth of the mining companies on the one hand and what one might call "ordinary" Australians on the other. The huge through-flow of money we have seen in this country in recent years is due directly to the earnings of our mining companies. I would like to see them go on earning. Anything that makes it harder for them to be successful is likely to be disadvantageous to the country generally, and at least they have some understanding of financial matters, which Rudd and Swan most certainly have not.


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deanrosario
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Ody

I'd be surprised if any decent and rational-thinking human being (I'm sure there are even such people with vested self-interest in the mining industry ?!) think it is inappropriate to ask mining companies to contribute a fairer share of the wealth they derive from OUR mud and OUR rocks.

Surely decent Australians would consider it obscene that:

Pre-mining boom: We received $1 out of every $3 of resource profits through royalties and resource charges.

Currently: We receive $1 out of every $7 of resource profits through royalties and resource charges.

Tim Colebatch has written a terrific analysis of this issue in today's Melbourne Age newspaper in which he states:

- Mining is not like other industries. A factory, a farm, a shop or an office can keep adding value to the economy indefinitely.

- Mining is one-off. It generates income by depleting the nation's capital - our stock of mineral assets. There's nothing wrong with that. There's no point in leaving assets in the ground.

- These assets belong to the Australian people. They can be mined only once, and we are entitled to a good return.

- You can argue over whether 40 per cent is the right rate, but this is the right tax

Sources:

1. http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/taxpayers-to-get-a-bigger-share-of-the -loot-so-lets-open-a-cheaper-grange-to-celebrate-20100430-tzib.html

2. http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/sands-of-politics-drift-over-the-hard-bits-2010 0503-u1ww.html,http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/sands-of-politics-drift-over-the -hard-bits-20100503-u1ww.html

(Message edited by deanrosario on May 03, 2010)


"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

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bridog
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Thanks Ody for reminding us of the place that superannuation plays in our nation. Apart from DIY funds who may or may not have resource companies in their portfolio (most would), every Australian who is a superfund member in Australia has an interest in BHP, RIO, Woodside, and maybe others like Wesfarmers, even if their fund just tracks the XTL (ASX top 20).

The other point you make which people overlook is that the resource industry has single handedly been responsible for Australians rising standard of living where no one builds anything less than a mansion compared to the dwellings of 30 years ago and an appreciating currency has meant cheaper imports of electronic entertainment equipment, motor vehicles etc.

I don't know where Dean gets his figures from but governments have always had their hand in the back pocket of the big miners not only through royalties and resource charges but charging like blazes for rail and infrastructure use and anything else they can think of.

Changing the tax for existing projects is a bit like having paid for a ticket to ride a train, the conductor comes along halfway through the journey and says "You gotta pay 40% more if you want to get off at the other end"


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rdumas
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The Labour Tax Grab off the Goose that Laid the Golden Egg

First they blow away over $2billion on a failed home insulation plan killing 4 people in the process, then they have a blow out on a 'broadband' system from $4billion to $43billion, then they squander yet more on building overpriced school halls, now they want to slam the goose that saved us from the GFC. When it falls in a heap due to unforseen consequences (like the pricking of the China balloon) they'll do yet another backflip and look for another opportunity to squander yet more money. In any privately own company these incompetents would be sacked but all we can do is shake our heads in disbelief.


“It’s a worst-case scenario,” Citigroup mining analyst Craig Sainsbury said. Mining companies will be taxed about 58 cents for every dollar of earnings, compared with 35 cents before the new regime, he said. The resource profits tax is on top of corporate tax and companies payments of state royalties will be rebated under the new regime.

Resource mergers and acquisitions may “dry up” because of the uncertainty created by the proposed changes, Sainsbury said. This is “bad news for mid-cap Aussie miners,” he said.



The above quote is an extract from the bloomberg article in the link below:


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayEB7.Qi5ZPY&pos=3


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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bridog
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I suspect that all mining projects in Oz which have not actually been committed to have been shelved today, and all takeovers on the drawing boards likewise, while miners consider the consequences.


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deanrosario
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Wow - I'm not sure how the insulation bats and broadband issue relates to the mining tax?

Should we also revisit all the LIB/NAT policies that wasted money and killed people?

Rudy has mentioned 4 tragic deaths due to the bungled Home Insulation Policy ...

Perhaps, Rudy is not aware of the LIB/NAT policy, which was based on lies, fabricated evidence and deceit - and has killed thousands of, and continues to kill, innocent civilians and Aussie soldiers in Iraq?

Anyway, I thought the issue was whether the mining royalty policy was fair or unfair?

Let's hope one day the greed in our society will make way for a more compassionate understanding of what is fair and what is unfair.

PS: Those who understand how mining companies are valued would also understand that:

If, indeed, ...

"all mining projects in Oz which have not actually been committed to have been shelved today, and all takeovers on the drawing boards likewise, while miners consider the consequences",

then, the share price of BHP, RIO, etc. would fall by much more than 2-3%!

(Message edited by deanrosario on May 03, 2010)


"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

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rdumas
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Self Managed Super Fund Review

Hi Ody,

During the last few months there were many things written about the threat of changes to the SMSF system in Australia. The Cooper Review was charged with the responsibility of carrying out the main study into the SMSF system. The following pdf was a talk given by Jeremy Cooper at the 2010 SPAA National Conference about the Cooper Review and where they were at in February 2010.

application/pdf
smsfs.pdf (39.4 k)



The phase 3 preliminary report of the Super System Review was released on the 29th April. I think that most people running their own SMSFs would be reasonably happy with the outcomes.


http://www.supersystemreview.gov.au/content/content.aspx?doc=html/media_releases/2010/003.htm


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ody
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Monday, May 03, 2010 - 03:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Self managed super funds; and the resources tax

(1) Rudy: yes, I am reasonably happy with the SMSF situation, though not entirely, and though I don't think it is especially surprising that Rudd c.s. did not decide to interfere seriously. Originally the government was too ready to listen to sundry vested interests that tried to make out that trustees/managers of their own super funds didn't know what they were doing, but, as the evidence to the contrary piled up, with people like you and me behaving more competently and carefully than the vast majority of professionals, so-called, it became impossible for Cooper and others to conclude that the financial industry was in any way right about this matter.

Hence we have been "saved". Being both puritanical and uncultured, however, a Labor government would not understand that art might play a perfectly legitimate FINANCIAL part in a super fund. Those of us familiar with art, and its financial performance over the years, do realise that over time most good art does go up in value, unless it goes out of fashion or for some other reason (e.g. abundant faking) comes to grief. There is thus an excellent case, for informed people, to see art as a legitimate investment. Personally, I hasten to add, I prefer not to have it in my super fund - but financially speaking, the reasons for its exclusion are illogical.

(2) The resources tax: Dean, this has nothing to do whatsoever with the previous government's involvement in the Iraqi war. It is perfectly possible, as I do, to condemn that, and yet at the same time to think that on the whole the previous government was financially competent in a way that the present lot is not. To me, I must say, that is a no-brainer. You may feel that it is morally nice to slug the resources industry, but my point is that it is financially unwise, and I think we - or at least you, as you are younger! - may well live to see the folly of this "old-style" politics-of-envy and let-us-slug-those-that-look-rich style of politics. The tax does come at a very dangerous time for the industry, which is expanding its production in the hope that China Inc. will go on buying while that country is by no means in a secure position, although Labor confidently assumes that it is.

I don't think there is any point in my otherwise repeating my previous points, all of which to my mind would show, to anyone looking at the matter FINANCIALLY and with the GENERAL INTEREST OF THE COUNTRY AT HEART, that this policy is not a good one, even if superficially it may charm those who think simplistically in terms of "our" resources (as though we are all involved in the process of digging, exploring, exporting, etc). Indeed, this talk about "our resources" smacks of naive Marxism, and in fact is totally askew, economically, when it is considered what is actually necessary to convert those resources into wealth (a process that for starters needs big investment). Mining is, at the core, a hazardous and dangerous business. I am sure that if we left it to Kevin Rudd to run BHP he would quickly bankrupt the company, or cause fires or explosions by leaving the matter in the hands of his bureaucrats, whose incompetence (along with his own) is amply proven.

School halls and insulation problems have EVERYTHING to do with this new tax: the common denominator in each instance is financial ignorance and managerial incompetence and negligence. That common denominator runs through everything which this government is doing as soon as there are financial implications.

FOOTNOTE: I have watched what in Australian terms are "Liberal" and "Labor" governments for well over five decades, and in four different countries. What is done by them is to my mind almost tediously predictable. That is also why I am not keen on either side of politics. From a "civilised" point of view Labor governments usually are - or at least often have been - preferable. They usually have at least some ideals, some interest in protecting the weak, looking after social welfare, education, etc. Liberal governments are usually less sensitive, if not downright crude, in respect to many such issues. However, they are almost always financially vastly more competent.

The two most recent governments we have been able to watch are almost classical examples. Indeed, the Rudd government is in many ways amazingly like those which I knew in the 50s and 60s, and which in Australia came to the fore in the form of the Whitlam government (1972-5). People like Hawke and Keating were not true socialists, but financially more responsible - though nowhere near as skillful, financially, as the Howard government, which, however, was in many ways barbarous from a "civilised" point of view. But it is not as though the Rudd government is really THAT civilised - and its financial incompetence and recklessness are absolutely breath-taking, in my view. Indeed, I have difficulty remembering a government that I would in this respect give such a low rating.


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prater64
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Dean,

So for one that sees the tax as fair, shouldn't that tax then be given to the state who's ground is being dug up for the resources and who in turn provide infrastructure and services to those workers involved in the production of such profits?

I for one don't see the 40% tax being evenly distributed to those states who will bear the cost of fueling the current mining situation.

I also see it as being a potentially dangerous decision. Will this government make the same decision and tax other sectors 40% of their profits if those sectors were to take off? What organisations would want to look at investing in a country that takes such large chunks out of their wallets?

As to the off topic Iraq issue;
2 Aust Soldiers died in Iraq (one vehicular accident in Kuwait and one from a weapon discharge in barracks) that's two less than Rudd's botched insulation scheme and no one was shooting at the insulation guys. Our soldiers are actually highly trained & pretty good at their job, can't say the same about the insulation dodgies. Something the government should have thought about before it became a free for all.

(Message edited by prater64 on May 03, 2010)


"Opinions: Opinions are like backsides, everyone has one. You just like the look of some more than others."

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eblode
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Ody,
Your views are the mirrored reflection of the vast population of intelligent and educated people in this country.
E-trade has now new programs to buy on International exchanges including the DOW.

Regards,

Eugenio.


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ody
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Prater 64 and Eugenio,

Thanks for the views expressed in your posts. Prater, I think you have a good point of view relating to the states that are productive and those that are not. It seems to me that one of Rudd's goals is make sure that the states with the most votes - NSW and Victoria - are kept happy, even though the wealth of this country is mostly earned in WA and Queensland. And yes ... does one slug each successful area of economic performance in turn??

You are also right about Australian soldiers. I think, though, that Dean's benevolent - but irrelevant - point was that we must compare the belligerence of John Howard with the supposed moral virtues of Kevin Rudd in slugging the producers of this country's wealth.







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ivor
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Hello All

A couple of points to add to the conversion -

The Australian nation is set up as a Commonwealth of States where wealth and prosperity is (should be) equally shared by all Australians.

Only a small minority of mining companies actually make a profit, and even fewer make a realistic return on equity.
So most won't even be affected.

The concept of a super tax on mining profits hasn't been passed by the senate yet. It may just end up in the same rubbish bin as the ETS.

Regards to all
Ivor

 
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