You need to register separately on the Chart Forum
- see Chart Forum Help
Edit Profile Profile Help Help
Forum Rules Forum Rules Advanced Help/Instructions Advanced Help
Search Last 1|3|7 Days Latest Posts Latest Posts
Search Search Forum Tree View Tree View
   
US Stocks 15-minute delayed

Archive through May 12, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Our Daily Bread » Archive through May 12, 2010

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»


Author Message

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario

Post Number: 1741
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 09:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Baysider

I reckon I heard the same scaremongering of "the mining industry is going to collapse", shouted by the LIB/NATs and their sympathisers, when the ALP announced they would roll back the outrageous IR legislation - Workchoices - before the 2007 Election.

Well, it's 2010, the Workchoices has been abolished and the mining industry has been doing very well, indeed.

I reckon many Aussies are starting to understand the obstructionist tactics of the LIB/NATs and view their "doom and gloom prophesies" with as much seriousness at the kids tale: "The Boy Who Cried Wolf"!


"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
furpo
Member
Username: furpo

Post Number: 4
Registered: 05-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Thursday, May 06, 2010 - 11:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Market Mad; Sorry for slow reply. Back in Melbourne (South Yarra. Dental surgery is outside Medicare and requires big upfronts.
Fortunately trading has given wife new life.
In relation to inflation/deflation; the euro/US mix is becoming beyond prediction. cheers







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
bridog
Member
Username: bridog

Post Number: 98
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 12:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm not always a champion for The Daily Reckoning but Dan's comments today bear repeating to a wider audience imo.

Quote
Capital will only finance projects if the risk reward equation is attractive. The government seems to think a reward of 6% is enough...and that anything above should be taxed at a rate of 40%.

If mining companies went out in search of capital to fund a project and they were projecting a return of 6%, they would be no takers. Nothing would get built.

If a mature mining operation cannot earn 6% return on capital then it shouldn't be in business, so we can assume that most mature mines will be paying some sort of super profits tax.

What this government imposition does is increase the pre-tax required rate of return that investors will now demand from these companies.}} Investors will not accept a lower after tax return and passively accept the government's judgement.

The result for mining companies is lower valuations. The result for Australia is a loss of wealth
--That loss is about $16 billion in shareholder value and counting. And that does not include the loss of Australia's reputation as stable place to do business and make long-term plans. "If it is what appears to be, a significant tax increase, that's another competitive advantage for Canada," said Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty. He implied that the tax change would favour more capital investment (and formation) in Canada and less in Australia.

--But let's not be dogmatic. The heart of the government's proposed power-sharing agreement is that Australia's resources belong to Australians and should be shared by all "stakeholders" not just all "shareholders." Treasurer Wayne Swan told the Australian Financial Review that the wealth generated by the last boom, "failed to capture for the taxpayer a fair share of the wealth generated from the community's mineral resources."

--Fair enough. That's pretty clear as an argument. Resources belong to everyone and the bounty of them should be spread around equally, or at least more "fairly" (whatever that precisely means). But let us offer a less dogmatic and heated definition of what constitutes a community's wealth.

Australia's mineral resources don't make it rich. Its transparent legal system, fair tax system, competitive capital market, skilled workforce, and a general environment that creates the conditions for the private sector to thrive make it rich. When you start taking a sledgehammer to this institutional framework, you destroy a nation's wealth.

--If having stuff in the ground made a country rich, African nations would be the richest places on the planet. But for commodity rich countries, it's only when private capital and energy identify mineral deposits to develop economically that value is unlocked in exchange with buyers. A nation's real wealth is in being a good place for people to be free and create wealth and value and jobs. Easy-to-understand laws that don't change in mid-project attract capital, human and financial. And capital leads to more net national wealth.

--But maybe all that's too abstract. Stealing from the rich to give to the poor is always an easier sell in the court of the public opinion, especially since the rich are generally not likable. The miners counterattacked in Canberra yesterday by threatening to shelve or cancel billions of dollars in domestic projects. Maybe they're bluffing. Maybe not.
Unquote
The bolding is mine (haha no pun intended)}


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
p3t3
Member
Username: p3t3

Post Number: 1
Registered: 04-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 04:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



In an effort to see both sides...(from the Business Spectator site)

THE DISTILLERY: Resource rent asunder

The resource super profits tax (RSPT) debate is splitting into two camps. The first is focused on the economic rationale and radical nature of the tax itself. It is supportive in principle, but undecided in practice. The second is focused on individual companies affected, and remains dead against.

The economic debate is stoked by The Australian Financial Review, which leads its front page and website with a piece by Laura Tingle arguing, much as this column has for months, that we are having the wrong debate. Focusing on the nuances of Wayne Swan’s recent discussions (and, perhaps, being in Canberra, prompted by the Treasurer himself), Tingle argues the question really being posed by the RSPT is: "...do we really want to have another uncontrolled commodity boom and are we prepared to slow its progress? ...

The downside of the commodities boom is very fast growth that pushes up the exchange rate, interest rates and inflation; sucks in high levels of immigration; swallows slabs of the skilled workforce; and puts pressure on our cities, infrastructure and water ...

In the last boom, Australia had allowed capacity constraints to develop; ignored the effect of the mining boom on the non-resource economy; spent too much of the wealth that was generated; and ‘failed to capture for the tax payer a fair share of the wealth generated from the community’s mineral resources’. The Treasurer noted that other countries had gone through similar experiences. ‘You may have heard of the ‘Dutch Disease’."


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
eblode
Member
Username: eblode

Post Number: 1375
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 06:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



ODY/RUDY/ and MM,
I tips me lid to you lads for calling a 4500 low weeks ago. Something I thought would be impossible after hitting a high of over 5000. The market is like a huge boulder, takes weeks to push up the hill and only moments to fall to the bottom. As I always said " if you are in the market you never have to take a laxative".

Eugenio


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 323
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 07:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What is it they say Eugenio? Up in stairs and down in lifts...

What a night... ASX futures show that we got down to 4101 overnight before rebounding!

Who said volatility was dead?

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3395
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 07:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

I bet you're delighted that you joined me in buying ETF GOLD some time ago. Initially it was like watching grass grow but has certainly rewarded our patience of late. Based on my calculations it should hit $133.11 today!!



I will be cashing in some of my chips today if I can get that $133.11 price.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario

Post Number: 1742
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 07:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Can't wait for the Mining Industry and Tony Abbott to get in front to the camera and gravely say:

"PM Rudd and the ALP are responsible for the the plunge on Wall Street, which saw a drop of over 1,000 points on the DJIA at one stage"

C'mon Tony Abbott - provide us with further evidence how shallow is your knowledge of economics and the drivers of global financial markets.


"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
cat_lady
Member
Username: cat_lady

Post Number: 692
Registered: 10-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 08:32 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



they're saying it was a trading glitch which saw the 1,000 point drop. thought they had some sort of mechanism to halt all trade if something like that happened?

cat lady


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
jaded
Member
Username: jaded

Post Number: 154
Registered: 03-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 08:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



www.cnbc.com/id/36999239
catlady.

some 'diddle' with futures.16 million entered as 16 Billion.
"They" are Investigating!!


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 324
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 08:56 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Have a look at the trades on these ones... I pity the poor person (and they will be after buy ing at the top) on the last trade mentioned!

Six Mega Drops of the Flash Crash; Sam Adams Goes Flat

By Stephen Grocer

Exelon Corp. is one of the largest, most powerful utilities in the world, typically worth some $30 billion. For a brief moment Thursday, the stock market said it was worthless.
Exelon was just one of a number of stocks that produced bizarre, and presumably garbled, market quotes during the “Flash Crash” of the afternoon.

Another was Boston Beer Company, producer of Samuel Adams. During that period, the company hit zero after opening at $59.44. It closed at $55.82.

Boston Beer and Exelon were hardly alone. Here’s a look at a few other companies that endured some of the most extreme swings in Wall Street history.

Accenture:
The consultancy opened at $41.94, hit zero at around 2:50 and then closed at $41.09.

Exelon:
The utility opened at $43.35, went to zero and then closed at $41.86.

CenterPoint Energy:
The utility opened at $14.39, hit zero and then closed at $13.88

TransMontaigne Partners:
The transportation company opened at $27.46, hit zero and then closed at $27.50.

Impax Laboratories:
Thespecialty pharmaceutical company opened at $18.48, hit zero and then closed at $17.78.

Sothey’s:
While the other companies on this list hit zero briefly, Sotheby’s went in the other direction. After opening at $34.61, its shares briefly touched $100,000 before closing at $33.

Whoooa!
Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 325
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 09:03 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

What's your view on the market? I know you were predicting that we would have a sell-off then bounce back up to a new high (in this bull run). Are you still of the same opinion?

If, as the futures are suggesting, that the ASX 200 falls 173 points, that would take out the February low. Would you think from an EW perspective that this would then confirm the start of Primary Wave 3 (the most powerful wave) down?

Look forward to your thoughts

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
baysider
Member
Username: baysider

Post Number: 418
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 09:19 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi MM
Looking at the high's and lows on the xjo gives us a target of around 4430 for today - what do you think? Maybe a rebound from 4400 to 4500, after that anyone's guess though I to would love to hear Rudy's guess!
Gold looking good, could be an opportunity there if there's panic selling.

xjo


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 326
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 09:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Baysider,

Yep, I'd agree that we should settle around 4430, as long as panic doesn't set in then I can see us going to around 4450-70 on the day. However, US futures are looking sick this morning - down another 0.6% at present.

With the FTSE closing before the sell-off on Wall Street they are set for an ugly night tonight unless the US futures manage to turn around.

Jaded, that was an interesting article regarding the futures trading, which to me shows that it wasn't an error by one particular person on one stock...

EW predicted a while back that when Primary Wave 3 started that computers wouldn't be able to cope with the panic selling - that appears exactly what happened last night..
I note that the Nasdaq is to cancel all trades of stocks moving more than 60%

It would take a brave man to be buying today, but I do think some punters will see value down here as we do look extremely overbought on a short term basis. I think we should see a bounce back up to the 4540 level - then down to 4300 after that

If however, the selling intensifies today and we go below 4350, then 3900 is the target...

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario

Post Number: 1743
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 09:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The 1-minute chart of the US30 CFDs, which is CMC plc's surrogate instrument for the Dow Jones Index doesn't seem to indicate any human error?

Yes, there was a final 280 point plunge just after 2:45 pm NY time, but the market had already fallen 600 points on, what appears to be, a fairly consistent sell-off.




"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
baysider
Member
Username: baysider

Post Number: 419
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 10:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



First target of 4430 hit. Now what's to follow??


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 327
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 10:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'd agree Dean - I don't think it was human error. When panic sets in, yes, errors will be made but I think that it was intended - if the market follows the futures then the volume on the S&P futures that Jaded pointed out in that CNBC article is correct, then it was an intentional move and not error.

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
bridog
Member
Username: bridog

Post Number: 99
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 10:31 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Sold Telstra, bought LGL, BND at 61c


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3396
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 10:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Whilst I don't discount the likelihood that wave 3 started, I like to work my way up to catastrophic scenarios. For that reason my higher probability scenarios are as indicated in the chart below with my preference at this stage being for the one labeled in green. I still see 2011 being a very negative year in terms of the bear market. By the way please note that the chart below is not meant to indicate any possible timing for these moves, they are just meant to indicate price pattern.



Putting the current price action in some perspective, the following chart shows the price action as of yesterday with the relevant Fibonacci levels indicated indicating potential turning point levels for my point b.

At is stage should my preferred scenario play out I anticipate that my point b will occur in early to mid June.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
bridog
Member
Username: bridog

Post Number: 100
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 11:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Do you see any indication of a bounce any time soon?

Cheers


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3397
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 12:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bridog,

Yes I do expect a bounce in the near future to start a wave "b" retrace before completing the correction in June with a final "c" wave.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
baysider
Member
Username: baysider

Post Number: 420
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 02:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



H iRudy
You're the question master today! One more for you, do you see some chance that we remain within the expanding wedge that we've been in since Oct? The market has almost perfectly bounced off the lower border at 4430 with bargain hunters looking at 5100 you'd imagine if the pattern plays out again.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3398
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 02:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Baysider,

As you know, anything is possible in the market. The 5 wave move that we may have completed today looks impulsive but could also be a complex 5 wave corrective pattern. I do think that the latter case whilst possible is unlikely though. If I am correct and the move was impulsive then it means that we have two possible scenarios playing out.

1) This is wave "a" of a Zigzag
2) This is wave "1" of a larger impulse wave

Both of these scenarios would anticipate a rally for a period of time. I would expect it to last a week or two. Then we would expect either a wave "c" of a Zigzag or a wave "3" of the larger impulse wave. In the latter case the drop would be highly likely to be larger than the first impulse wave. In the case of the Zigzag then we could expect a similar range wave.

Should we start to form an ending diagonal for the third wave then this would definitely mean that it was a Zigzag because the 3rd wave of an impulse cannot be an ending diagonal. I will be watching that third wave with great interest.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
bridog
Member
Username: bridog

Post Number: 101
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 02:51 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy,

I see some have decided the miners are looking like bargains and XMJ has actually turned positive.

Interesting GOLD is up more than the leveraged miners like NCM and LHG. Maybe they cary a super tax burden (LHG because of NCM)?

Cheers


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
bridog
Member
Username: bridog

Post Number: 102
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 02:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Mean LGL of course


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3399
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 02:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bridog,

The ETF GOLD is directly proportional to the POG (in US$s) and inversely proportional to the AUDUSD. For that reason you get a double whammy when the POG goes up and the AUDUSD goes down. I set a price of $133.11 for 67% of my share holding before market opening. It spiked up to $133.64 and executed my sell order. It then dropped to $131.16 and is currently trading at $131.53 as I write.

Assuming that we did form an interim top I now expect it to retrace until around the 18th May before it heads north again. I expect that it will peak at around $144 in June at about the same time that I expect the XJO to bottom.

It's always nice to lock away some good profits.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
gdd3
Member
Username: gdd3

Post Number: 850
Registered: 09-2002

Rating: 
Votes: 1


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 04:23 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy...

Firstly, congrats on your great(patient) trade in GOLD(ETFS)and well done for sticking to your guns. Secondly, I'm sure you are aware since your made reference to a XJO Futures target of 4400 that it actually traded to an overnight low of 4001 but finished at 4473.

D'jaded and others...my understanding so far is that what caused last night's 20 min 'panic' sell was actually as a reaction to a 'faulty' sell order in Procter & Gamble(PG on the NYSE)that caused their stock to fall 25% in 15mins or so before retracing back to just below yesterday's close(Have a look at the chart below but also the "Daily Trade" statement on PG's website with its preference to stating the stock continues to out-perform the general market rather than an explanation of the intraday's share aberration...well hell yah!



....and that statement...



P&G statement on the Company's stock trading activity on May 6, 2010

Posted on 06-May-2010

P&G's stock outperformed the broader market today, which is indicative that our growth strategies are working and we are delivering strong results. As we noted in our most recent quarterly results, volume grew seven percent, the fastest rate of organic volume growth in 18 quarters. This along with core earnings per share growth generated very strong cash flow. We recently increased the dividend by 9.5% and have increased our estimates for share repurchases for this fiscal year. We aren't in a position to comment on the details of an individual trade today but we believe the trade was an aberration....

Particularly note the (casual) last sentence...

We aren't in a position to comment on the details of an individual trade today but we believe the trade was an aberration....


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
ken
Member
Username: ken

Post Number: 635
Registered: 04-2003

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 05:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Didn't take long for the partial Hindenburg Omen to have an effect, hey?

Ken


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 328
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 05:30 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Well what a day that was on our market!!!

The reversal off the open was VERY impressive but the fact that it ran into resistance about 10-15 points below yesterday's low was very bearish and the reversal back down was almost as impressive as the rise up.

To put things into perspective, we rose 150 points from the open, then reversed around 80 points into the close... Volatility back with a vengence!
Expect fireworks tonight everyone - US payrolls out and it will be a rollercoaster in the US.

Also, the G7 Finance Ministers are meeting tonight to discuss the Greek issue - hasn't this all been sorted about 100 times so far this year???

Strap yourself in, better than any movie..

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
eblode
Member
Username: eblode

Post Number: 1376
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 05:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MM,
At 10.05AM I was showing a paper loss of $10,566.
At 4PM I was down $1,200. What a ride!

Tomorrow's figures on US employment will make or break the market.

Eugenio


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
jaded
Member
Username: jaded

Post Number: 155
Registered: 03-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 06:10 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



eblode,
still have Cockatoo?


Is it in doing a tight W?
Does it really have Bulk of the Right Stuff Coalwise?
Is MCC going to be left on the shelf?That recent COK run was highly influenced by MCC gone, Cockatoo next?

COK is bouncing off the 150[30 week] EMA,eblode or do you only pay Weinstein 'lipservice'?

yes tonight on the DOW will be interesting.
Another 'human error'?
dolphin you may say it was Proctor and Gamble [I've read that too] but what is P&G's significance percent wise to the DOW etc?

Look it was either human error or a Hacking Play by some Hedge Fund type,Maybe?
All the charts above are not showing Volume.
They/We need to see What Volume in a Minute actually transacted on this ploy.

As stated above d'error was in some mini futures index 'thingamabob' so traders/institutions who only follow futures seem to have 'reacted'.

Anyhow let's hope the weekend papers have some 'thought' pieces negating this Blessed Panic in Materials Shares!!

but I doubt it."News" just loves Panic.Jezz I even saw a Robert Gotlibesen[whatever] is flying this kite!!

What/Does he want?a Liberal Minister Consultancy Job?surely not a place in d'Daily Reckoning!!

off air to drink!!
cheers


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3400
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Friday, May 07, 2010 - 07:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi gdd3,

Yes it was probably one of my more patient trades.

Funny how these aberrations occur isn't it.

I wonder if GS made a stack out of it. As I understand it they represented 50% of the volume.

It certainly will be interesting to see what the US market does tonight.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
eblode
Member
Username: eblode

Post Number: 1377
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, May 08, 2010 - 05:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Jaded,
Gave away COK long ago. After it peaked I dumped it. I never give way to sentiment. Once a share is past it's "expiry date" I bid it adieu and shop around for another winner. Right now it's AND.

Eugenio


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
pinkhat
Member
Username: pinkhat

Post Number: 1
Registered: 05-2010

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Saturday, May 08, 2010 - 08:57 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi to all posters,

This is my first post. I have been reading with much interest all posts for a few months now, learning about markets and trading. I must say I have really enjoyed the wealth of information and the discussions on this site. I am sure some posters spend many hours putting charts together and analysing the many investment articles available and then posting that information. I have really appreciated this information and have learnt a lot about investing.

cheers for now,
pinkhat


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3401
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, May 10, 2010 - 11:06 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi folks,

This morning I exited the remaining 33% of my ETF GOLD holdings and bought myself some BHP for a short term play. I anticipate re-entering the ETF GOLD sometime around the 18th May to take advantage of the next run up. The exact time that I will re-enter the ETF will depend on the timing of the pattern that develops.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
dion78
Member
Username: dion78

Post Number: 58
Registered: 07-2008

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Monday, May 10, 2010 - 03:31 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Wow... what a crazy last few trading days!!

Picked up some more NGE, IPP, GXY and LNC last week - hopefully at bargain prices.. Sold out of MRE and CEY.

Was getting hard to watch for a while there :-(

Those "paper losses" were getting hard to swallow!

Futures looking good for tonight. Touch wood.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
deanrosario
Member
Username: deanrosario

Post Number: 1744
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: 
Votes: 7


Monday, May 10, 2010 - 05:59 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



What a difference a week makes.

Last week, as the market fell and miners prices plunged, some formed the view that it was all due to that awful man, PM Rudd and the ALP's Mining Super-Tax, which was going to result in Financial Armageddon for the mining industry in Australia.

So, I wonder, does it follow, that ...

... now that the miners are almost back to where they were a week ago, will we hear similar comments praising PM Rudd et al for the rise in the mining stocks?

Of course not, because sophisticated investors/traders realise the PM Rudd & ALP policy have virtually ZERO IMPACT on the inherent future value of commodity markets and those who operate within the commodity markets.


"Never commit yourself to anything you can't walk away from in 30 seconds." Neil McCauley (played by Robert de Niro) in 'Heat'.

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
bridog
Member
Username: bridog

Post Number: 103
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 12:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Congratulations Rudy, you picked GOLD perfectly!

I picked up some BHP and ERA last week, BHP was looking oversold and ERA had dropped about 30% which didn't make sense.

Most of the stocks I follow bounced today but on weak volume, so I don't really trust the upturn. If this rally continues on thin volume for the next day or so I'll look at selling the few remaining mid tier stocks I hold.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
bridog
Member
Username: bridog

Post Number: 104
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 01:10 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Eugenio, AND, like it too. Placed an order for tomorrow . .

Thanks and Cheers


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3402
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 07:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Bridog,

I am more than happy with my recent trades. As I mentioned yesterday I am only invested in BHP now for a short term play because if I am correct then the current rally will only last a few days. I would anticipate that the market will head down by no later than the 18th May. At that time I will be back in the ETF GOLD stock. In the mean time may the force be with the rally.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 329
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 08:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

What would your targets be for this rally? I'm thinking a stopping point may be around 4735 - 4795

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3403
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 09:43 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

The S&P500 last night spiked to 63.67% of the leg down from 1219.8 and closed just below the 61.8% retrace level. It has to close above it for this rally to have any chance of succeeding. We know that the US market partakes of heaps of steroids so I doubt that our market will do the same.

For our market the 50% retrace level is 4726.2 and I would be surprised if it broke above that. The 61.8% retrace level is 4796.7 which would be the next likely level to test.

I am away for the rest of the day and will look forward to seeing how things end up on my return.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 330
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 10:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Thanks for that. I think the market will struggle to hold gains today. We have the budget out tonight and that might prompt a few sellers. Given the strength yesterday, today might be seen by some as a chance to sell.

I note BHP was flat overnight also.

Cheers
MM


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3404
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 02:18 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Been out all day and came home to see the weakness in the market. I decided to pull out of BHP and get back into the ETF GOLD with half of the amount that I previously had invested. I'll add to it as it starts to take off. There is a chance that I may be a few days early but I'll live with that.

The XJO at this stage couldn't even get to the 38.2% retracement level. Instead it was halted at the 200 day EMA which previously was support.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
bridog
Member
Username: bridog

Post Number: 105
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: 
Votes: 6


Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 02:53 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dean in post no 1744, you wrote:

“sophisticated investors/traders realise the PM Rudd & ALP policy have virtually ZERO IMPACT on the inherent future value of commodity markets and those who operate within the commodity markets.”

You can’t be serious.

BHP have calculated, as I understand it, that if they add their income tax and royalties paid back to Net Profit After Tax, for every $1 they earn from this calculation they now pay 40c to the government. They further calculate that this will rise to 57C under the super tax regime.

Now I know all miners may be somewhat different, but if we take this as an example, this is what happens now:

Scenario 1
Profit after royalties and tax per share = $1.00 – 40c = 60c. At a p/e of 15 this would value the share at $9.00

Scenario 2
Profit after royalties and tax per share = $1.00 – 57c = 43c. At a P/E of 15 this would value the share at $6.45

The value of the company’s share price has declined over 25%.


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
eblode
Member
Username: eblode

Post Number: 1378
Registered: 11-2002

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 03:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bridog,
100% on the ball.
Rudy,
Also sold out of BHP with a quick profit. Went bottom fishing and bought PMV.
Maybe there is power in prayer.

Very disappointing day for OZ shares.

Eugenio


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3405
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Tuesday, May 11, 2010 - 04:40 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

The following comments relate to both the XJO and S&P500.

As I have mentioned in the past, I am still thinking that the current correction (which the recent rally formed a part of) is not the start of Prechter's catastrophic 3rd wave or McHugh's catastrophic C wave.

If I am correct then what we have is an ABC 3 wave corrective wave move down before a final rally to new highs. Now I had expected the rally to take until sometime early next week but there is a chance that we may be seeing the beginnings of it now. This is the reason why I got out of BHP today and partially invested again in ETF GOLD.

I have put a tentative EW count on the recent price action for the XJO in the chart below. If it is correct then we may be seeing the start of the final wave C down. This is not McHugh's catastrophic wave C but rather a lower order wave that may take the XJO down to around the 4033 level possibly bottoming somewhere in early June.




I repeat though that I may be a few days early and the move down may not start until early next week.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
bridog
Member
Username: bridog

Post Number: 106
Registered: 06-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 01:17 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Dean, re your post 1745 (seems missing from site):

For a real world BHP calculation from my post 105 just multiply all the figures by 4.5.

This is the scenario that will certainly occur if and when this tax as currently understood is implemented, the multiple may change a bit but the ratios won't.

Cheers


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
market_mad
Member
Username: market_mad

Post Number: 331
Registered: 09-2009

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 09:24 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Great stuff Rudy! Thanks for that.

Should be a curly one for our market today. We sold off late in the day when US futures started to go down. They were down 100 before the open last night but recovered well with our futures pointing to a 20 point gain.

However, in early trade this morning the US futures are off just under 0.5% which will possibly affect our market on the open. I would expect it to be fairly muted today given the big moves and high volatility over the past week or 2 and the range to be quite tight. I'd expect buyers to hold the 4550 area but if that breaks down then I would only expect a further fall of 20-30 points.

This will change of course if the US futures continue to deteriorate over the course of the session.

Cheers
MM







Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message
rdumas
Member
Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3406
Registered: 11-2006

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0


Wednesday, May 12, 2010 - 09:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



More on ETF GOLD

For those of you who wish to calculate the relationship of the POG (in US$s), the AUDUSD and the real value of the ETF GOLD stock then use the following site to get the values for the POG and AUD USD and slot the figures into the attached spreadsheet. http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/exchange.html?e=FOREX

I have tentatively inserted the values of these parameters at time of writing this post. You will have to adjust these values throughout the day.


application/vnd.ms-excel
pog to etf converter.xls (25.6 k)



Note that you should only write in the yellow fields. Do not overwrite the green fields as they hold the appropriate conversion calculations.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
Other Threads  
Last PosterPostsPagesLast Post
Our Daily Bread » Archive through June 23, 2010rdumas50 23-Jun-10  09:16 am
Our Daily Bread » Archive through June 18, 2010eblode50 18-Jun-10  02:40 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through June 16, 2010ody50 16-Jun-10  04:11 am
Our Daily Bread » Archive through June 11, 2010rdumas50 11-Jun-10  10:34 am
Our Daily Bread » Archive through June 07, 2010rdumas50 07-Jun-10  09:57 am
Our Daily Bread » Archive through June 03, 2010rdumas50 03-Jun-10  08:13 am
Our Daily Bread » Archive through June 01, 2010rdumas50 01-Jun-10  01:39 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through May 28, 2010rdumas50 28-May-10  11:04 am
Our Daily Bread » Archive through May 26, 2010ody50 26-May-10  12:20 am
Our Daily Bread » Archive through May 21, 2010jaded50 21-May-10  03:06 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through May 19, 2010magnus50 19-May-10  09:16 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through May 17, 2010eblode50 17-May-10  07:42 pm
Our Daily Bread » Archive through May 14, 2010market_mad50 14-May-10  10:53 am
Our Daily Bread » Archive through May 06, 2010baysider50 06-May-10  08:20 pm

Threads by Last Post Time:

First Previous 4 5 6 7 8 9 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Next Last

Administration Administration   Log Out Log Out    

««  «  Previous  Next  »  »»