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Elliott Wave Watching

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rdumas
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Username: rdumas

Post Number: 4907
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Tuesday, May 24, 2011 - 08:16 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

I can't recall just how long ago that you first introduced me to Tony Caldaro's site. I am forever grateful to you for doing that because whilst I don't agree with his longer term count I do have the view that he is an excellent technical analyst and enjoy reading his thoughts.

When you posted your EW count it was picture perfect when compared to the recent changes that Tony had made in his EW count. He found this necessary because it was becoming obvious that the price action of the SPX was not consistent with that of a wave 3 of 3. It was for that reason that I incorrectly thought that perhaps you were reflecting Tony's EW count in your post. I should have known better because you are an independent thinker and if you were quoting someone else's views you would have said so.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, May 24, 2011 - 08:21 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Guys,

Yes Rudy, you are right - excluding everything else one could easily say that we may only be part of the way through this rally.

Looking at the chart below, if you transfer the 2010/11 rally to the beginning of the 2009 rally you have a not too dissimilar print. The price action breaks the trend line back in October 2009 but then rallies (big circle) for another 6 months +35% until April 2010!! Back in October 2009 the technicals looked not too dissimilar to now?

The two lumps before the drawn circle back in October 2008 look uncannily like our current two lumps, both in price, time and sequence in the rally!

We do have Uncle Ben's $600 billion of free cash giveaway in the next four weeks to consider? That's $4 billion for every working hour flooding the system in June! That's a lot of lobsters!

It just goes to show that other methodologies are needed - one alone doesn't do the trick.

Thanks Dolphin for your thoughts...thank goodness I am swing trading these little legs up & down, rather than to double guess the outcome. My fast STO is keeping it real on TNA/TZA! The one call I made was that this correction might be a messy wave 4 of the final ED, and if there was 'throw under' for the 5th, I wasn't on the wrong side of any collapse - so I went back to the fast option. Safety first.














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gdd3
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Tuesday, May 24, 2011 - 11:34 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Not really a Good Morning, Guys...

Hey Rudy...I told you my short-term memory was "going"; I not only can't remember when I 'introduced' you to T.C. site, I can't remember even doing it. In fact, I could swear that it was you that 'introduced' his website to me?!?! I do like your respectful compliment about me being an 'independent thinker' though especially when it comes from one of the same ...teamwork, right(happilly sharing our "independence"). P.S. Must spend some time today reading the current T.C. views to see for myself.

Bill, like you only happy to share our views/thoughts. Question...I assume as you are trading the volatile EFT's that you are using Intraday data(and resultant oscillators) for "entry timing".... Can't imagine you are basing your entries on the fast STO daily only, right? Anyway, as a suggestion, and as you like the STO's, may be consider "marrying" the 15min/30min/60min Slow STO's(SSTO) and only entering/exiting on when all are giving 'crossovers' from desired oversold/overbought % levels as you have illustrated on your fast STO Daily chart above. I used this method with good success when trading Futures contracts many moons ago as it helped eliminating false crossovers signals on just using 1 timeframe(like your Daily STO above shows in the late April period). Of course, you still apply your applicable StopLoss at entry for protection.

Another question...how did you transfer that "insert" on your I.C. chart($IUX) to line up directly under the data timeframe you wanted to and make it look like it was a 'special feature' within the I.C. Charting software? What's the trick/program you used? I can see this would be very useful for a lot of us here.

Have a good day gents


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billt
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Tuesday, May 24, 2011 - 05:17 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi dolphin

I use the 'Paint' programme to create my charts. This is the way I do it - there maybe a faster approach but it is 'idiot' proof (which I need!):


- on IC call up the chart you want
- click on ‘file’, click on ‘save chart as image’
- ‘file name’: give the chart a title & date
- ‘save as type’: make sure it is on ‘png’
- Click on ‘save’, saving it into a folder of your choice on your computer
- Open up the saved file on your computer
- Right Click on to the file, should allow you to ‘open with’ the programme ‘paint’
- Click away to bed the image on the ‘paint’ image to paste onto the screen
- Use the left hand icons to either cut & paste, label, draw lines, circle, etc

Once into the 'Paint' programme, I used the edit function to cut & paste the price action into the image. Highlight the part you want by using the dotted square icon, then edit copy – edit paste, that will place the image in the top left hand corner of the 'paint' image, click onto it and drag it to where ever you want to be positioned.

If you haven't used 'paint' before spend a rainy day having a play...


On my Juiced ETFs, I am using the system you suggest. I am using a combination of ADX, RSI, MACD, & STO to pick the tops and bottoms. A bit of trendline work, support/resistance, and of course 'Rudy & his merry men' stuff.

Here is an extract from the TZA Bear 15 minute chart:

- $37.83 zone was picked up initially by the negative divergence and overbought position on the RSI, then the ADX move, and then MACD and STO crossovers.

- $34.41 zone was picked up the overbought position on the RSI, then the ADX move, and then MACD and STO crossovers.

- $37.90 zone was a repeat of $37.83, picked up initially by the negative divergence and overbought position on the RSI, then the ADX move, and then MACD and STO crossovers.

The RSI has been very useful.

The EMA 10 (blue) & 20 (red) confirm the moves, and I top up more if I feel confident.

I cross check to the 30min, 60 min, and Daily to give me a feel for the trend change.

+13%, +10%, +10% moves using TZA & TNA over the past six trading days. Rolling up the profits delivers a c. +36% gain in the week.








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billt
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Friday, May 27, 2011 - 09:20 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Guys

As another week rolls to an end SPX continues in the channel south.

I have been watching $RUT which often signals a turning point prior to SPX.

The EW pattern on SPX & RUT has been a series of 3 wave moves, which on RUT I have labelled as a corrective, at least for now.

RUT has punched through the upper trendline from 10 May in a 3 wave move north, which is inconclusive at this stage.

On the 60 min, the RSI & MACD divergences have broken to the upside which increases the probability that this little rally may have legs? Overbought RSI conditions exist on the 15 min, which I have been using to trade this corrective, but I sense the 60 min chart may play out? The EMA10, 20 & 50 are set to hook over. The first target is the red trend line, then 839.17 to set a higher high.

This may set up your mid June SPX next high? (but not necessarily a new top)

The alternative is that we run back south to the lower trend line.

Interesting to see if SPX follows. I can't make a convincing impulsive count south as yet, with overlapping wave structures...it gives me the feel that we have another trip higher for mid June?





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rdumas
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Friday, May 27, 2011 - 12:33 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I will focus on the XJO index as that's the only thing I trade at this time.


The following EW count for the XJO assumes that there is one rally left in the index. As you mentioned, the move down has been chockers with overlapping waves so it's difficult to know whether we're getting a lot of 1/2, 1/2 combinations or whether the move down is corrective as I've assumed in the EW count below.

I very much doubt that we will get a new high in the time left but who knows?





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, May 30, 2011 - 05:44 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

The depth of this corrective wave has once again raised the possibility to me that the EW count may have reverted to an 'extended wave 5 format' to complete by 13 June.

The two other alternatives do not appeal to me at this point, they look less probable:

1. 5 ED waves off the 16 March 1250 low looks less likely to me as wave 4 - [5] has crashed through the lower trendline.

2. The 1311 low on 25 May could be the completion of wave [4] in a 'Flat' from the 1344 high on 18 February. This would require wave [5] to complete very quickly. If [5] = [1] the target would be c.1430...perhaps a possibility.


SPX has an IHS and Bull Flag in play which may push this final wave to met the EW Golden Section target c.1433. I recall that there are spooky numbers at that level.

If Polly reaches the ED upper trend line (running from 1-[5] to 3-[5]) 1390 is the target.

If we are in 5-[5] of an ED then we have a Zigzag finish to complete. Alternatively, if this is the start of [5] we have an impulse or ED to consider.

Unfortunately that does not rule out many options - we may have a 3 wave finish or a 5 wave?


Thoughts?






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rdumas
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Post Number: 4931
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011 - 09:26 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

The blue labelled waves in your EW count are subwaves of the higher level white labelled wave 5. The main problem that I have with your count is that the size of your blue labelled subwave 2 is larger than your white labelled wave 4. Generally speaking I would suggest that as you go down in EW levels, the wave ranges would normally be expected to be smaller in size. For example it makes sense that a Minuette wave 1 would be much smaller than say a Super Cycle wave 1. I use this extreme example to emphasise my point.

For that reason I would prefer the following EW count as it respects the relative sizes of the wave levels involved. In this count the final wave 5 is an Expanding Triangle. Whether subwave 5 is able to produce a new high or is truncated remains to be seen.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011 - 10:34 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks for that Rudy,

Lots of stuff to squeeze the grey matter...

The problem I have with the Count you posted is that you cannot have an Expanding Triangle for a 5th wave (as far as I understand?). That was the basis for my 'rethink'.

I have always had a problem with the lack of clarity of a 5 wave move within your main wave 3, particularly the disparity of wave lengths of 2-[3] and 4-[3] - but we have discussed that before...I prefer Caldaro's count for the first 4 waves.

My main thought here is to have some consideration as to the type of wave to expect over the next two weeks. With a number of EW counts credible, unfortunately there are many options from multiple wave zigzags, 5 wave impulse or even an Ending Diagonal...

SPX does not have a 'truncated fifth wave' as prices have moved beyond the end of the third.

SPX doesn't give me the feel of a classic 'Bull Market Failure' printout either.

All that leads me to feel that this final wave may surprise everyone, particularly if my count holds true and Mr Fib has his way? A final run to suck in all those 'shorts' with overhead stops...

However, other methodologies will be needed to give a better idea of the completion of the pattern, as there are too many wave options likely to my mind in the coming fortnight.





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rdumas
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011 - 11:25 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Nice to see that you're staying loyal to that cheat sheet which suggests that fifth waves cannot be an Expanding Triangle. In Frost and Prechter's book Eliott Wave Principle he mentions on page 37 that "We have found one case in which the pattern's boundary lines diverged, creating an expanding wedge rather than a contracting one."

He then goes on to explain why he doesn't like the pattern 'analytically' and hence excludes it as a possible pattern.

The following chart is his example of a possible expanding wedge for a 5th wave.



Now putting aside that it is a rare event and that it may not meet the usual EW rules/guidelines, what cannot be argued is that the pattern was an expanding wedge and it did occur at the end of a 5 wave rally. We therefore have to accept that this pattern can in fact occur.

This is where I try not to be overly religious in my EW interpretations. What our cycles work appears to be telling us is that we have one more significant rally to complete before the March 2009 rally is terminated. Now whether my EW count or your EW count is correct or not, what they both have in common is that there is one outstanding rally move. I find that when there is confusion about EW counts then I ditch the methodology and look at the other methodologies.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011 - 02:39 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

I have learnt two new things today:

1. I'll add the 1980 Wave 5 Expanding Diagonal Triangle to my 'Cheat Sheet'!...how could 'Mr Cheat Sheet' have missed it!!

2. Now I intend to use the phrase: "I try not to be overly religious in my EW interpretations", sparingly in the future. Up until now Rudmeister, I had thought your middle names were 'Ralph Nelson'.

The 1980 chart overlayed on our current SPX print, presents a weird proportional relationship in time of the 5th wave. Nevertheless the 1980 Wave 5 Expanding Diagonal Triangle wave 5-[5] did caste a throw over, so lets hope history repeats.

The higher order of probability is for a 5-[5], 3-wave Zigzag, so I'll go with that for now...Double or Triple a possibility too..







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billt
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Monday, June 06, 2011 - 05:34 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Adding to the Expanding ED option, perhaps as wave [c] prices have retraced to the 61.8% level of wave [b] on SPX we may be still in a wave 4 contracting triangular pattern, with a little [d] & [e] to finish 4? Same outcome/different ending wave pattern.

This SPX wave structure still "looks" way too corrective to me, so perhaps a final push north to the Armstrong date?

Plenty of longer term trend lines broken at this point to suggest otherwise....

Latest thoughts?








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rdumas
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Tuesday, June 07, 2011 - 01:16 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Your count is certainly a possibility but at this stage I am tending to lean away from the EW methodology and depending more on other methodologies for working out what may happen in the future. In the SPX the daily and weekly charts have an Idiot sell whilst the XJO has an Idiot sell on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. This is obviously a pointer to the fact that we have either entered a longer term decline or are very close to it.

Add to this is the fact that we have our Lunar phases in the New Moon to Full Moon period which is highly negative hence all the indications are that we have some further downside to go for the next week or two.

This scenario is also in keeping with the longer term average profit/loss cycles in the US market outlined in last week's Chart of the Day article (refer below). You will note that July is a 'bright' month in a 'gloomy' period in the months ahead.

This lines up with a number of the methodologies that Randall and I are using. In summary, we are likely to remain in a somewhat negative period for around another 1 to 2 weeks and then we could see a second degree counter rally which could take us into early July. Whether this enables a new top to be made in the SPX remains to be seen. I am doubtful and in terms of the XJO I suspect that its chances of doing that are even lower. To me, we have already seen the high in the XJO and we have started our downward journey over the next couple of years as the market forms Primary wave C.

Chart of the Day}

Today's chart illustrates the Dow's average performance for each calendar month since 1950 (blue columns) and the average monthly performance of the Dow from 1950 to the present (grey line). Today's chart illustrates that the Dow has tended to perform best during the last several months and first several months of a calendar year. During the middle of a calendar year, the Dow has tended to struggle (with the exception of July). It is worth noting that there have been only two calendar months during which the Dow has declined on average -- June and September.





(Message edited by rdumas on June 07, 2011)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, June 08, 2011 - 09:43 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy

I had been expecting ever since the sharp reversal of US GDP announced at the end of April that the early May high would not be challenged.

This is not the first time that the GDP announcement has coincided with the 'top'. April 2010 did the same...

Last month I wrote:

"If we break the lower 11 month trendline then I favor the EW count that the ED has completed with a throw under. The sharp reversal of US GDP announced as we reached 3-[5] may prove to be terminal."


The EW pattern since then has been less established, and I too have ventured off to other techniques until the EW trend re emerges.


Many 'Wavers' have us still in a Wave 4, but I find it hard to see how any strong rally north will give us anything other than another 'failed 5th' outcome. That count may still prove true, as the move down from the early May high looks a corrective beast.


I'm playing with Trendlines & Channels at the moment...so I'll follow each mini 'leg' with interest!


cheers

bill


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rdumas
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Saturday, June 11, 2011 - 08:13 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The wanderings of the SPX

Further to my post 4943 of the 7th June where I said the following:

"Add to this is the fact that we have our Lunar phases in the New Moon to Full Moon period which is highly negative hence all the indications are that we have some further downside to go for the next week or two.

This scenario is also in keeping with the longer term average profit/loss cycles in the US market outlined in last week's Chart of the Day article (refer below). You will note that July is a 'bright' month in a 'gloomy' period in the months ahead.

This lines up with a number of the methodologies that Randall and I are using. In summary, we are likely to remain in a somewhat negative period for around another 1 to 2 weeks and then we could see a second degree counter rally which could take us into early July. Whether this enables a new top to be made in the SPX remains to be seen. I am doubtful and in terms of the XJO I suspect that its chances of doing that are even lower. To me, we have already seen the high in the XJO and we have started our downward journey over the next couple of years as the market forms Primary wave C. "


Currently we have both the daily and weekly Idiots giving a sell signal however there are some strong support levels showing up as well as the oncoming Full Moon date in Australia of the 16th June (next Thursday). As I suggested in the previous post I anticipate a market low to occur around that date and that a second degree counter trend commencing at that time.

Based on the location of the 50 week SMA at 1226.54 and the intersection of the ascending long term trend and horizontal support line off the previous April and November 2010 peaks, it would suggest that these levels may see a potential bottom to the current decline.

And just to add some strawberry syrup to the ice cream, at around this time we have a number of rising planetary lines in play as well, all of which adds to my confidence in calling an end to the current decline at the abovementioned time.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, June 12, 2011 - 09:59 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

One of the few worthwhile (and free) sites still available on the net that has an excellent EW analyst providing his views is found at http://elliottwavepredictions.com/

In Sid's latest video presentation he gives an excellent count for GOLD which I believe you will find interesting.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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thanks Rudy for that link...

I haven't spotted Sid before....interesting blog on the shiny stuff.


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rdumas
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Shanghai Composite

In Marty Chenard's latest article he discusses the Shanghai Composite.

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm


I have superimposed some EW labelling onto his chart to propose a bullish scenario. The labels are in red and purple. I do not suggest which one is correct. It is purely an exercise in demonstrating how sometimes the same chart can throw up two diametrically opposed scenarios.





The bottom line at this stage is that we have now had a lower high and lower low. Whilst a rebound looks likely at this stage, the direction of trend will depend on what the next top and bottom does.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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XJO Comments

Whilst it has been very bullish for the last few days I suspect that we will get a pull back in the XJO. The following 20 minute chart dated 30 June 2011 shows us that off the recent low we had a 3 wave move up followed by a 3 wave move down. That meant that the next wave was always going to be impulsive.

I would suggest that we have made a Flat pattern with an extended c wave.



The following daily chart shows the 50 day EMA sitting at 4626.65 and a falling UBB approaching the 38.2% Fib level. It is possible that this EMA may act as some overhead resistance.




The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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gdd3
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Short-term EWC on the XJO....what do you think, Rudy?




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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

That count looks good to me. The only problem that I see is that from my Delta studies, I am expecting a move down to occur any time between now and the end of the week that will last until around the Full Moon date (15th July). Now whether that gives the XJO enough time to form anything other than a failed 5th wave remains to be seen.

Once we get the low near the FM date I then expect a rally to occur until the end of July/early August.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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gdd3
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An update of our XJO short-term intraday EWC chart...just may be Rudy is right(Delta Data) and may be my previous EWC should be amended to as shown below. If the original EWC count is to be correct then we must have wave(4) in place now(as we have gone long enough, almost too long, in time for the wave 4 to be in balance with its sister waves of the same time degree).

For Rudy to be right then the real question to be asked is is yesterday's high a WAVE C complete or a WAVE 1. The nature of this down leg is to be the clue and atm I'm favouring it is "corrective" in nature...WAVE D or a WAVE 2 don't matter as it means higher highs should be seen. The risk here is if this down move turns out to be a "not so clear" impulse wave that would ultimately test the 27th of June swing low at minimum!

I wait with baited breath.....Ha!Ha!





Cheers
Dolphin

P.S. I meant to add that I see key to strength support(or confirmation of trend change) is the break of the (green)A.P. upper boundary resistance and as I right this that's looks likely!

(Message edited by gdd3 on July 06, 2011)


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gdd3
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Now that we have broken the upper boundary of the (green)A.P. we can look at the next one in play(possibly the red one). The validity of this one will depend on any pullback(re-test of the old one...green)which often happens to provide next "spring-board" bounce. That "breakout" level is also supported by the (thick) "decision" black line(I have had in place for some time), a number of horizontal chart points(btwx 4600-4592) and is still above the 33% retracement from the last swing low(27th of June) which is considered bullish I would think.

All in all, very interesting as the nature of the move from yesterday's high is increasingly looking corrective even though it could open up to provide some alternative mini timeframe EWC's. If yesterday's high was the end of an impulsive move, have we finished the correction of that and move on to take out yesterday's high very soon or is the mini-5-wave move from today's low just part of a mini wave "b" with today's low the end only of wave "a" of an abc down(more in line with Rudy's Delta, I'm guessing)?

Regardless, I'm liking what I'm seeing as whatever the favoured EWC over this time frame(10days') its strongly favouring higher prices than yesterday's high and sooner rather than later....come on XJO, finish above 4621(can anyone see why?).





Cheers
Dolphin


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ehmu
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Not EW, however XJO 4650 very near resistance of 38.2 from July6 2010--377EMA---and tl from mar9/09.

XJO support 4550 50% retrace from july6 2010, and tl from may21,2010.

Weekly 8ema (which I use as one of the ma for weekly idiot ) is 4605, look at todays doji close on weekly.






_____ n a m a s t e

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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

Based on my Delta anticipating a 3 wave move (significant moves) my favoured scenario is that we are in a B wave which won't complete until around the FM date.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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ehmu wrote on Wednesday, July 06, 2011 - 05:12 pm:

Not EW, however XJO 4650




Looking at the XJO chart, I noticed something else. That XJO has been trading in a 500 point range for about two years.

So I put a fib grid on the daily chart for current prices, and voila---I see that the 38.2%level has rejected the recent price rise.

Even though my gut tells me that old lumpy can easily climb above this level, I noticed the negative divergence of the Twiggs money flow.

Some of you closer to XJO may know the reasons for money to be leaving at this point in time, selling the rallies has a ring to it, no.








_____ n a m a s t e

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ehmu
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Chart for XII--Bernanke smokie screen

attached 15min chart could be i, ii, of 5, no ?




_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade requires an ugly seller and an attractive buyer.

(unlike real life)

Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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billt
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Hi Rudy

Long time 'no speak' regarding the squiggles!

My own feeling is that on the basis that the May high was the top of Wave B, Mr Elliott has produced a very convincing pattern on SPX.

We have a 'moon high' this coming weekend, which may produce the first i/ii subwave of the iii-3 early next week, if this count holds true? After that the next 'moon low' on 13 August may take us way south to the iii/iv subwave of the iii-3, or a 'nested' position within that pattern....

If the 200 day MA gets taken out, I assume at this stage we may get a bounce off the neckline for the i/ii, before more carnage into 13 August..? The RSI on the Daily has plenty left in her before we get into oversold conditions - so if there is no resolution in Washington I see plenty more red ink to go...








XJO has printed out another 1/2 DOWN option too..?



How does Mr E'Dubya see it, taking into account your 'cycle' and other considerations??


your pupil, bill


ps. Pug had us in a 1/2,i/ii UP off the June low, which becomes invalid in the June low gets knocked off.


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billt
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hi again Rudy,

The bigger picture would look something like this....





Vertical lines are 'moon low' points.

Taking a similar rate of decline as Wave A, Wave C would have us completing mid December 2011, a little over 4 years from the 2007 top.


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Sorry that I haven't had time to post over the last few weeks but far more important things than the market needed attending to.

I haven't had much time to spend on the market in the above period but as Andrew had mentioned a while back that the 1 and 2 year cycles had topped and we were only waiting for the 4 year cycle to do the same I suspect that this event may have happened in the mean time.

It has always been my view that the GFC would bottom out in 2013 and I haven't changed that view. The EW count in your post 951 looks quite feasible as the daily Idiot is well and truly on a sell. It is interesting to note however that the weekly and monthly Idiots are still in a buy mode so until we see some more downside we can't jump to conclusions just yet. I note however that even our bullish friend Anthony Caldaro is starting to look a bit worried about his bull market count.

The following 10 month chart of the SPX shows a blue trend line which is below the current price action and the LBB and 150 day EMA. That line represents the trend line that has been in place for the SPX since the start of the March 2009 rally.

I suspect that that needs to be decisively broken before we get too bearish. Remember that the market can do some very illogical things at times.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Further to my earlier post on the SPX. It should be noted that whilst the SPX shows a bit of hope of a rebound in terms of the weekly and monthly Idiot signals, the XJO on the other hand is in extremely negative territory having an Idiot sell on all time frames (daily, weekly and monthly).

The Shanghai Composite is a bit of mixed bag with Idiot sells on the daily and monthly and the weekly is getting closer to a sell signal but has yet to do so.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Thanks Rudy,


Interesting to note that $NYA ($NYSE Composite) has broken through the 2 year trend line, closing below on Friday, after passing the MA 50, 100, & 200 during the week.

I feel we need a close below the "neckline" support zone on all major US indices to confirm the break of the major two year trend. A close below 1250 on $SPX (7873 on $NYA) would perhaps confirm things. 2% to 3% to break those levels - if Congress doesn't sort out the Debt issue by Monday, we might see such a drop at the open....

If we are in a iii-3 the red ink might be running....


Hope things are slowly getting sorted for you.






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rdumas
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SPX Idiot Signals

Further to my post 5004 mid afternoon Friday, after the US market closed at the end of their Friday trading session the daily, weekly and monthly Idiot signals were as follows:







The time frame for the daily was 10 months whereas the timeframe for the weekly and monthly was 2 years. As can be seen the daily is now in clear sell mode. the weekly has just gone into sell mode and the monthly is very close to going into a sell mode. So we have very clear signals that in all time frames the XJO is in a dangerous condition and not worthy of attention as an investment vehicle for investors.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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...and to add a little more weight to the 'Idiot', the following four indicators have all rolled over the past week:

$BPSPX 5/10 MA
$SPX 3/10 MA
$NYSI

Although a bounce will occur tonight on Wall Street, the 'Swing Trade' has turned Bearish.






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rdumas
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Potential XJO EW Patterns

Following are the potential future patterns that I see are most likely for the XJO. In both cases I am viewing the entire GFC as being the pattern for the Cycle level wave [4].

The first is a milder scenario. In this pattern the depths to which the XJO will fall is limited as we would have a contracting triangle scenario. In this scenario that March 2009 low would not be taken out.





In the following pattern the March 2009 low would be taken out as the pattern would be a Zigzag. In this pattern I would expect the low to occur sometime in 2013.







The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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hey Rudmeister

...'Old Ralph' EW has pointed the way over the past few months...he has served me very well.

What are Caldaro & Pug saying now? Pug's subscriptions must be down!

On the basis that BHP may be running in a Flat ABC, I have taken a trendline from 2003 as a possible support for Aunty, as we may get a bit closer to the March 09 lows on $XJO, due to a possible significant pullback in Mr BHP. My target c.3300's

The worry of course is that this Wave C goes feral on $XJO, and we get some fib ratio of Wave A to deal with! Yiks! (Wave C = A : 5025 - 3708 = 1317...early 1990's support levels...Colin might have to increase the 'Time Periods' to find them!!)

Two Questions:

1. Timing. If $XJO pulls up prior to the March 09 low, for the completion of C, I have a timing of mid December 2011....any thoughts?

2. Polly. We are in iii-3 DOWN. My target for C is 880. It looks to me that we are in the middle of the fifth wave of this current 10 day impulse down... Is that how you read it?

I sense $SPX wave a-C may target the 38% 2007/09 fibo @ 1014 /50% fib 2009/2011 @ 1019/1010 support area. That gives enough room for the full 5 wave pattern to play out for the first impulse of the C leg...mid October a-C bottom, two week counter rally b-C, then crunch to mid December? Santa Rally, for D?


hope all is ok

bill










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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Re your questions posted earlier.

Following are the guidelines associated with a Contracting Triangle. As you can see wave C normally takes longer than any other wave in the pattern.




A termination of wave C in mid December would meet that criteria. Note that the periods mentioned in the following chart for the XJO are in weeks. Hence I have no issues with your timing on that score. I would have thought that a bottom in October/September would have been more likely based on the fact that often the bottoms occur in that time period.





Now to your question about Polly. I should say that we still don't know if we are going to get a Zigzag or a Contracting Triangle. The chart below is based on a Zigzag. In this case we would only be in wave 3 of wave 1.

If instead we have a Contracting Triangle pattern in play then wave A (the 2007/2009 plunge would not have been an impulse wave as labelled but would instead have been a complex wave. For wave C we would be looking for a Zigzag pattern with the labelling WXY and we are possibly in the midst of forming wave A of wave W. Wave A would then be an impulse wave and we are in the midst of wave 3 of that pattern. I hope that all of the above doesn't sound too confusing.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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hi Rudy

I forgot to add my $SPX EW count...

The 5 minute chart better defines the 1/2,i/ii move last night.

I sense $SPX may have another 4%-5% to go to complete the (v)-iii-3 pattern?

That brings us to approximately the H&S target & 100% fib ext of Wave 1 target of c.1146 for the completion of iii-3...

1173/4 support zone to tackle first.


Thoughts?










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billt
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...sorry Rudy, posted mine before I saw yours!

Thanks for more of the Triangle 'rules'....many I didn't know!

Basically, for the next big move south the pattern on $SPX will be a 5/3/5 pattern whatever the outcome...is that correct?


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

That is the case for the Contracting Triangle scenario. For the large Zigzag scenario where the March 2009 bottom gets taken out it will be a large impulse wave.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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.....of course...well that big 5 waver will be easy to spot!

With a $SPX Zigzag target as low as 460 (wave C = A), this wave 3 will terminate way below the horizon. I guess a Great Depression II outcome....

USA/Europe implodes from debt/hyperinflation and the China bubble bursts....time to drink many beers!

thanks mate

bill


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billt
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...at last nights rate of decline we could get to 460 in 13 trading days....now I am definitely off to hit the fridge!


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billt
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hey Rudy,

Just read on the 'Non-EW' thread your thoughts on Polly:

"The first confluence zone occur at around 1096~1102 levels and the second confluence zone occurs at the 1011 ~ 1019 levels"

Looking at the 'level' of counter rallies, it is worthy of note that last nights action may have completed the iii-3.

Last nights action printed out a 50.02 counter rally, being very close to the 51.08 counter rally titled ii-3.

Wave iv-3 perhaps has begun and that it has already printed out enough rally in price? 'Law of Alternation' suggests that the iv-3 may be sharp?

Perhaps we may get a triangle set-up to complete iv-3, or if the 'S&P Downgrade' gets traction, it completes in a sharpish abc, and we may produce v-3 pretty quickly next week to head to your 'confluence zones', or to levels even lower.

Of course at that point we may be completing a wave at 'some' level yet to be defined.

The alternative 'Super Bear' count (massive big bi-polar) is that we have only just completed 1/2,i/ii,i/ii, with only a i-iii-3 DOWN (red) completed. What we have seen over the last 10 days was only a dress rehearsal and we have iii-iii-3 DOWN yet to come.... if so, prepare for launch!






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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I tend to agree with your black labelling but am uncertain at this stage where iv will terminate.





I suspect that we will eat up a bit of time forming either a Flat or Contracting Triangle for iv. Often wave iv would get to the price range of the previous lower level wave 4 so we could still see some further up movement later before completing this pattern.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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Rudy,

On the XAO we have wave equality between the first downleg starting in April at 561.5 points, and the second downleg which is in progress (565.3 points so far).

Also, the current downleg has extended the initial decline by 61.8%.

Good reason for a temporary bounce?


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Hi Ken,

Further to my previous post in response to Bill in which I suggested that we were probably due to be quite limited in any fall in the SPX beyond that of a Flat pattern or a Contracting Triangle in forming wave iv. The following chart also suggests reasons why there could be a bounce around these levels.





As for the XAO. I still prefer to study the XJO and hence will restrict my comments to that index. Currently there is a strong Idiot SELL signal all timeframes (daily, weekly and monthly). When you get strong signals like that it's hard to ignore them.

There are a few things however that are pointing to a rebound in the near future. The first is my cycles studies. I think it was about a week ago when I mentioned that I anticipated a second degree bounce in the next week or 3. That remains the case. From an EW perspective it looks like there should be a bit more downside however looking at the support levels shown on the chart below, a bounce from these levels would not surprise at all.





When we look at the intraday 10 day 15 minute chart we are also getting a lot of positive divergence occurring at this point in time which again suggests that a bounce is not far off. There are certainly a few gaps above the current price action that are begging to be filled.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Thanks Rudy,

I sense that a Flat pattern or a Contracting Triangle in forming wave iv has the highest probability at this point.


Wave iv range is already equal to wave ii, so perhaps a CT?


If things remain ugly on Monday, Wave v (or a continuation of a nested wave iii pattern ?) to target 1096~1102 levels or 1011 ~ 1019 levels.


The 'Moon Low' occurs next weekend, so I would not be surprised to see us at these levels by then. Possibly another 10-20% to go...potentially wiping out 12 months of $SPX gains in 16 days.


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rdumas
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My SPX EW View longer term

The beginnings of primary wave circle C





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Things certainly remained remain 'ugly on Monday'!

Prices closed right at the upper levels of the support zone @ 1011 ~ 1019.

We have a little more divergence in play and a wedge set-up which might suggest we might get some traction at this support zone.

The problem as I see it is that the EW squiggles looks to have only printed out a (i)/(ii) down of the iii-3 wave south, and we may have only begun the carnage?

If these levels do not hold, 1096~1102 next, then the 1010 low.


"The 'Moon Low' occurs next weekend, so I would not be surprised to see us at these levels by then. Possibly another 10-20% to go...potentially wiping out 12 months of $SPX gains in 16 days."






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rdumas
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SPX Starting to look like the Zigzag Scenario

If we were to be getting a Contracting Triangle scenario for the SPX I would have expected a higher level 3 wave WXY move down. The wave W would have been a 3 wave ABC move down. In the CT scenario I would have expected waves A and C to have wave equality. The fact that the third wave has been so large relative to the first wave indicates to me that the probabilities of an ABC pattern has diminished dramatically.

This opens up the probability that we do in fact now have an impulse wave taking shape which increases the probability that we have the Zigzag scenario probably in play. If so, we can expect the 2009 March low to be taken out with this pattern.

An important point to note is that once wave 3 is completed, there is likely to be a strong counter trend into the first leg of wave 4. With the Full Moon coming, the scene is set...........





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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skyhawk
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Thanks Rudy and Bill for all your comments and posts.
They are very valuable :-)

I have been out of the game for the last 3 months due to personal
reasons, but I will update the SPX and AUDUSD Cycles Analysis
in the next few days to see what they suggest for the months ahead

Cheers


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Further to my earlier post. From the ATMH of 131576.1 in October 2007 to the termination of wave 3 at 1270.1 in my chart gives a range of 306 points. If we get a similar range this time it means that we should bottom out for wave 3 at around 1064.6 (ie another 54.7 points).

By the way I like your count. Another possibility is the Alt labelling shown below. Either way with the FM coming this Sunday, the pain should start slowing down very soon.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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G'day Andrew,

That would be great mate.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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POSSIBLE SHORT TERM XJO EW COUNT

No guarantees here but the following count is a possibility.

What we need to look for in the coming 1 or 2 trading days is either an impulse wave or ending diagonal pattern down as we move into the Full Moon period.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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hi Rudy,

Is this how you see SPX?

Looks to me that the Red Wave 3 was a 9 waver..

Red Wave 4 has printed out a 71 point counter rally, similar but a little higher to Wave 2 (51.08). Prices have back tested the range of the previous 4th wave in the lower order..

Futures has us opening higher tonight on SPX, which may see a Red Wave 4 completing at the black overhead trend line in an abcde.

Wave 5 of 3 to target in the c.1000-1050 support zone...I noticed a spooky line just at the 1000 level, another at 1050...1019 50% fibo 2009/11; 1014 38% fibo 2207/09...1010/1040 low support.

Alternative finish: If Wave 5 = Wave 1 (60.56 points) this would barely take us below the 1101 wave 3 low?...unlikely in this volatility, but a possibility I guess. Target say 1088 78% fibo 2010/11 or 1080 on the 'spookies'.

100 points in quick time to keep Astro Boy's full moon happy, then for a slower counter rally 4-5 to target 1101-1172.


Anything that I am missing?





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billt
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....well that CT was quickly crunched, and we have a clearer c-4 running north....

9 waves mini complete in the wave c-4; prices have reached the overhead trendline from the the top of Wave 2; resistance at the top.


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

EW counts appear to suggest that there should be another leg down (even if it happens to be truncated).

Delta suggests that the low could already be in place but could easily be delayed until sometime next week and still be in the time probable time frame.

The daily chart below gives a preliminary buy signal on the W%R and the UBB is starting to curl over suggesting that a bottom could be in place.





The 5 day intraday chart below does show an upward moving 9 wave impulse as the last pattern. Could that indicate that it was a wave c of 4 or is it a wave 1 of 3 moving up?

The probabilities in my mind are slightly in favour of a low being in place. If so the upcoming pattern should take the market to a higher level in a few weeks time than it was at the recent low (based on my Delta analysis).





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, August 12, 2011 - 10:14 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy for that summary,

Interesting to hear that the Delta "could easily be delayed until sometime next week and still be in the time probable time frame".

My own thoughts are that c-4 is underway. This wave could extend all the way back to 1295 keeping the count valid, or it could give up the ghost right now and search out a wave 5 finish.

The SPX 15 min chart does display some weakness:

- RSI overbought: first time since 22 July;
- Divergence on the histogram;
- Sto rolling over
- Wedge forming

With the $VIX still up in a CT format, I wouldn't be surprised if SPX did another reversal tonight. We are in the spooky zone c.1170, so the full moon coming might still play out?...but Polly needs to get her roller blades on...

A break of the 1101/1118 Grey trend line below would be significant, taking out lows the confirmation.

Interesting to note that the trend line break back on 9 August, proved to be the completion of Red Wave 3. The intra-day trend line breaks coupled with the other indicators, continue to provide the best signal of all! Four beauties to pick out recent intra day tops & bottoms...keeps you on the right side of the trade.

I slightly favor wave 5 completing in the next few trading days, but only slightly...






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gdd3
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Bill, you've pointed out...

"The SPX 15 min chart does display some weakness:

- RSI overbought: first time since 22 July;
- Divergence on the histogram;
- Sto rolling over
- Wedge forming"


Well, courtesy of an A.P. (10min.)chart of a colleague plus a few additions of my own I believe you will probably be right! }

As a result, I've exited my short-term trade plays in today's rally hopefully to grab another entry chance early next week.





Cheers
Dolphin}


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billt
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hey G

I can see that your adjustable set square is back out...long may it draw a straight line. Those pitchforks do look troubling for the bulls.


However, the case for the bulls is seen on the SPX 60 min charts:

- Bullish DI cross;
- RSI clears 50;
- EMA 10/20 bull cross;
- MACDs looking ok;
- Higher low, higher high


On the bear side:

- Prices are at the declining Blue Wave 3 upper trend line which might cause difficulties;
- Prices rebounded at the green 50 ema;
- Sto is already at overbought levels;
- Pitchforks!;
- possible 9 waves up for a c-4 completed
- Prices at resistance zone @ 1170 area


Evenly poised...but your pitchforks has me leaning south.


Possible surprises: US Retail Sales & Business Inventories out tomorrow expected to be up..? Mich Sentiment down?









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billt
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Wall Street went sideways for most of the day.

US Small Caps..

Interesting to note that on the $RUT and SPI daily we have black candle spinning tops - often a reversal point for $RUT.

Prices on RUT got very close to breaking the lower trend line.

Perhaps a rising abcde in play, or has the Wave 4 top been put in??





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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I like your count for the RUT in your above post.

For the SPX, we still have SELLs for the Idiot on all time frames so we have to go with a downward bias at this stage. We can see from the following 10 day 15 minute intraday chart that the index is at overhead resistance at present.

I still haven't entirely eliminated the possibility that the last move up and across was a lower level wave 1 and 2 in a higher level wave 3. The next move will either validate or eliminate that count.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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SPX Long Term EW Counts

There have been a few times in my relatively short EW career when a pattern has completed 3 waves and I have anticipated another 4th and 5th wave to complete an impulse down. We are at that juncture now in the SPX.

If by some chance the market takes off then we will have to live with the fact that the correction that started on the 2nd May 2011 was a completed 3 waver. This would open up the possibilities for either new market highs or a smaller Contracting Triangle pattern than I would have anticipated.

On the other hand, if things go as I am expecting and we do get another thrust down (even if truncated) then the most obvious two scenarios that would play out would be those detailed below.

Contracting Triangle

This is the milder of the two scenarios in terms of how far the market would drop. In this scenario, the GFC would take longer to complete but the March 2009 would not be taken out.




Impulse Pattern

This pattern would be the worst scenario (of the two proposed) as the March 2009 would be taken out big time.





At this stage, both patterns are possibilities and I can't see any real good reason for favouring one over the other.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Comparison to the 2007/2009 Plunge


As an aid to the correct levels that are being labeled in my EW counts, the following chart is my view of what may be happening during this GFC. I have not shown all of the wave labelling however for the labels I have shown the Primary level is shown in a red circle, the Intermediate level is shown in blue and the next level down (the Minor level) is shown in yellow.

I have put a 3? on the current price action because I believe that 3 is not quite complete (but it could be). If it is complete then the market should continue working it's way up


When a 3 wave move begins with an impulse wave it becomes obvious that a Zigzag pattern is on the menu. What is interesting though is that usually a Zigzag pattern is a 'sharp' pattern. The B wave is often 50% of the the range of the A wave or less. What occurred with the SPX however is that the B wave was around 77% of the range of the A wave.

This could indicate that the C wave may not end up too far below the March 2009 low. Mind you if we got A and C wave equality, we would still end up as low as 462 (which is scary enough).





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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Hi Rudy,

You outlined two possible E.W. scenarios for the SPX in your post 5045 above, one as a Contracting Triangle ...shown here, which is fine.




Now my understanding is that a corrective "Contracting Triangle" has a "3-3-3-3-3 intermediate wave structure". However in your post above(5046) you expand your chart to show preferred? EWC from the 2007H to now that shows Wave A as a 5-wave move.




Correct my if I'm wrong, but won't that 5-wave count down for WAVE A(Mar.09 low)eliminate the prospects of your "Contracting Triangle" possibility UNLESS the move from the 2007H to the 2009L is an ABC and not a 5-wave move as shown in this chart!





Cheers
Dolphin}}


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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

You are absolutely correct. In the Contracting Triangle scenario wave Circle A would indeed have to be a 3 wave pattern. As I did not want to confuse people with too many different EW counts I didn't show the possible 3 wave pattern for wave Circle A.

Following are 2 possibilities for a 3 wave pattern for wave Circle A.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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boomer
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Hi Rudy,

Re S&P 500

What are your thoughts on the latest August low being D of (B), with (B) being a complex ABCDE corrective wave up?

Cheers
Boomer


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rdumas
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SPX Status

The SPX is coming to its first real obstacles in this rally.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, August 16, 2011 - 08:47 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Boomer,

I just want to make sure that I understand your question. Does the following chart represent what you are suggesting?





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Boomer might be considering a Anthony Allyn type EW Count not dissimilar to this:





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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I somehow doubt that. Boomer clearly says that the D is a low in the larger (B) wave.

(Message edited by rdumas on August 16, 2011)


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Boomer,

Assuming for the moment that I understand you correctly and that the (B) wave you referred to is the March 2009 rally leg. From your question I assume that you are suggesting a possible final leg up to possibly new highs before the (B) wave is complete.

Now whilst it is a possible EW count, I rate it at a low probability scenario. If my analysis is correct then we should have the 1, 2 and 4 year cycles all heading south which should lead to lower prices.

Note on the chart below that the 50 day SMA and 150 day SMA are both heading south. The similarities between the current price action and that which took place in October 2007 are a tell tale sign (refer to my post 5046). At this stage I don't see any reason to doubt the EW count that I suggested in my post 5046.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, August 16, 2011 - 10:56 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



c-4 looking close..


Contacting Wedges and some Negative Divergence on the 15 min charts, abc completing??

$RUT, the canary, just hanging in there....

Failed 5th back to SPX 38.2% still looks the higher probability outcome considering the Delta, but a trip to the 50% fibo not out of the question if things turn ugly.

Thanks for the answers to my questions Rudy...

Bill






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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Yep, that's the way I see it too.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Looks like it has cracked:






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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Your count is possible however the one below is also.

You may recall that I was expecting a pattern that would leave the price action for the market above the low of the 9th August (assuming that this really was the anticipated low) and that this pattern would take several weeks to play out. The pattern could be either a Zigzag, Flat or Triangle pattern in its simplest form.

If so then I would tend to lean towards the EW count below. In this count the A wave is complete and now we are in the process of forming the B. At this stage I think that the entire pattern may be a Zigzag.


If I am correct then the implication is that the 3 wave move down from the top was complete and there won't be the anticipated impulse move down that we were expecting. You may recall that we were still expecting a 4th and 5th wave.






The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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boomer
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Wednesday, August 17, 2011 - 09:58 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thank you to Rudy and Bill for your responses.

I apologize because I didn't properly enunciate my larger degree count, hopefully the attached chart better provides an insight to my preferred count at this stage.

Boomer S&P 500 Macro - Aug 2011

Cheers
Boomer


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billt
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hi Guys

Boomer, I am sure Rudy will restate that his C-4 DOWN EW count of 'higher probability' is due to the fact that "1, 2 and 4 year cycles are all heading south which should lead to lower prices".

The MAs of the Daily and Weekly Charts on the leading indices are in bearish alignment, and prices are below those MAs. GDP has stalled in the US & Europe, and the unresolved Sovereign Debt concerns makes things a bit difficult from here - but anything is possible.


Rudy, just to confirm your alternative count is a possible completion of an A-4 (or perhaps W-4) @ 1204.49? From 1104-1204 we have an abc in place, so I assume that your alternative count might be a Double Zigzag corrective (ZZ/C/ZZ)?? The CT idea is lost, as C > A or B?


Bill


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billt
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hi Boomer

Rudy may have another thought however, on your Count, Wave D of a Contracting Triangle can only be a 'corrective', and not a triangle. The 'Allyn Type' EW count ( I mentioned above) would need to be the count option for your idea.

Your Count off the 1999 high looks more compelling on the SPX Inflation Adjusted Log Chart.

The issue, of course, is will the market take out the May 2011 high....







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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

Re your post 1009. Your comment re the 1, 2 and 4 year cycles heading south is the reason why I don't believe that there is another major leg up that will take out previous highs and that the market will head south.

My gut feel is that the move down from the top in May to the low on the 9th August was a 3 wave Intermediate level A pattern down of Primary wave C. I believe that we are currently forming the Intermediate level wave B or Primary wave C.

In my post 5054, the A wave is Minor wave A of Intermediate wave B. We are now going to form Minor wave B of Intermediate wave B. I don't expect Intermediate wave B to complete until sometime mid to late September.

(Message edited by rdumas on August 18, 2011)


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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hi Rudy

That seems to be a change from your counts within your post 5045 above last week.

I had thought you were still considering that 3-A had yet to complete, with a possible 5-3-A soon to unfurl once this 4-3-A completes?

"if things go as I am expecting and we do get another thrust down (even if truncated)"

The problem was that the Delta date was due for a bottom.

The alternative possibility you referred to in 5045 was that 3-A had already completed, and we were beginning a corrective 4-A phase. Is this now what you are referring to, a-4-A completed, and b-4-A underway traveling south for 4-6 weeks?


...i may have this completely wrong!!

cheers


bill


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

My Cycles work suggested that the low as already in place for the SPX. That would suggest that the 3rd wave was complete and that we would be in the midst of a higher level wave 4 or a wave B. I have put the two scenarios into the chart/drawing below.

If Primary Circle C is a 3 wave move then we either have a Triangle pattern in play for Cycle wave 4 or a WXY Double Three pattern in play.

If Primary Circle C is a 5 wave move then we have a standard 3 wave pattern for the Cycle wave 4 which ends in an impulse wave for the final C leg.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Thanks Rudy,

Your Count makes complete sense considering the Delta, with that 'high' needing to be set in 4 to 6 weeks, and the current 'low' sitting more comfortably back at 9 August.

"Higher Probability" outcomes short term I guess are:

1. This correction south, will pull up above the 1101 low, as wB<wA;

2. Target for September might be 1204 - 1229 (2009-11 .236 fibo @ 1204, August 2011 @ 1208, April 2010 high @ 1217, or 2007-09 .618 fibo @ 1229) , forming a potential powerful RS of H&S to target March 09 lows?;

Longer Term idea:

3. Intermediate target post September might be 1010 - 1040 (2007-09 .382 fibo @ 1014 or 2009-11 .500 fibo @ 1019) to produce the neckline; A run then back to the 1204-1229 levels to reinforce the RS would be perfect for the H&S to play out.....


Currently we have negative divergences in play on the SPX 30 min charts, and Trend lines broken on SPX, RUT and others. The VIX has broken the down wedge, so this b leg south may have begun. 1118-21 a possible target if things get nervous.


Thanks for your chart Rudy ...


Bill






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billt
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...Rudy,

...if we have a 5 wave pattern south, and Wave C = Wave A, then we could target the 400's in a 9 wave pattern south.

The 9 August low @ 1101, may in fact become i-3...which makes the next top in mid to late September an interesting 'short' position for the 'Big Polars' out there....! September /October 2008 type crash potential...


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rdumas
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That's right Bill but wave equality is not a 'have to' for the pattern. A C wave that is 61.8% of wave A is also a possibility. The September short position should be a bit of a doozy in my opinion.

In the meantime, if my cycles work is correct then I suspect that the move down we had last night will be short lived and that the next target for the SPX is the 61.8% retrace level of the 2007/2008 plunge at 1233.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Another wild night Rudy,

As long as it is heading in any direction at speed I am a happy camper!

It seems SPX printed out a 5 waver, which could be the 'a leg' of wave b-4 completed. (or was it a failed 5th!)

The SPX Daily RSI is at 35, so more room to move south.

The formation on SPX 30 min of positive divergence may give the heads up for the completion of the c leg, if SPX pushes towards the 1120 resistance zone. SPX 30 min has provided great 'tells' over the past month or more.

If the 1101 gets taken out (which has a low probability) then down to the 1000-66 zone, before a very strong counter rally.


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

I was looking at my medium term cycle chart this morning. There are 3 occasions shown where we are going through this part of the cycle. On two occasions the market continued to move up to what would be the equivalent of the mid to late September time frame that I a currently expecting. On the other occasion however the market actually turned down at around the current time frame.

This does open up the possibility that this market may just continue heading down.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, August 19, 2011 - 11:25 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



...I was just about to ask you the exact question!

US 'Transports' $TRAN has taken out the 9 August low... not a good sign.

A few more EW counts (Eckert etc) calling this the beginning of iii-3, certainly looks feasible....a few notes and trend lines added from me!







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rdumas
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Short Term XJO EW Scenario





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Further to my last post. It would appear that the corrective pattern 2 or B in the process of being formed is a FLAT rather than a ZIGZAG pattern.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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rdumas
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Short Term XJO EW Count


As suggested yesterday, the XJO appears to be making a Flat corrective pattern. There are 3 types of Flat pattterns.....see below.





As the b wave was slightly longer than the a it means that the Flat pattern will be either a Running or Expanded Flat.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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gdd3
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Hi Rudy,

Up until 30 mins ago I was 'in-sync' with you! The good think, as we all know, committing yourself to really short-term possibilities you very soon get to find out if we are right or wrong. So I wonder if we have found another structure version of a EW Flat....a 5:3:3/5?...sort of like a "zig-zag" flat(just kidding!).

Here is my "close-up" intraday chart...and suggest may be we are doing a little "diagonal rally out of yesterday's low. Amounts to the sam thing in the next higher degree, that is, as we are looking for a wave2 or C, right!}}}

}}

Thats my take ...well for the next 30mins at least!

Cheers
dolphin}}}}


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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

I get your drift. I still believe though that the pattern is best described as a Flat so I don't expect too much more upside before we get another move down.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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gdd3
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Yep, Rudy and we may have the completion of your preferred Wave 2 or B right at stumps!

}}}}


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billt
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hi Rudy

Last week you were suggesting on the SPX EW Count:

"My Cycles work suggested that the low is already in place for the SPX. That would suggest that the 3rd wave was complete and that we would be in the midst of a higher level wave 4 or a wave B."

and then added:

"...the possibility that this market may just continue heading down."



Considering the price action in the past week, are all three options still on the table to your mind:

1. Wave 3 still to complete, currently in iv-3 or ii-3?;
2. Wave 4 underway, perhaps in the c wave of a CT?;
3. Wave A complete, pushing north in a Wave B?

Any count that is more appealing considering other methodologies?


bill


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rdumas
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Hi Bill,

The chart below is not meant to represent EW counts. I am finding that EW counts are causing more confusion currently than providing clarity. I have purely put labels on the chart so that I can refer to them.

First of all remember that my cycles analysis relates to the XJO and not the SPX however there may be some sort of correspondence in terms of timing (even if not in pricing).

According to my cycles analysis (which I have shared privately with a number of my readers) we have been waiting for a medium term top (I call it MTD 11) to complete. I will not know whether it terminated on the 17 August or is still to do so. At this stage I am assuming that it has not done so. The cycles analysis indicates that it should complete in the period between the 17th August and the end of September. It can do so at any time within this time frame. This will coincide with an even larger time frame top (which I call MLTD 20)

When the MLTD 20 completes, it will be followed by a time period of descending market price action which in the previous cycle lasted 5 months!!!

How far it drops within this time frame is not able to be determined at this point in time of the cycle.


Note however that in the chart below I have nominated a trading day time period of 14 days for the current up cycle which just happens to coincide with the New Moon date for the XJO. It is conceivable that we may get a top around that time period.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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thanks Rudy

Further Neg Div setting up on the minute charts on spx (rsi & cci), so we'll see how this pans out.

Either way, it appears whatever August high is put in, we then may have a descending market price action for 5 months. That makes counting the squiggles a little easier after then!

cheers

bill


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billt
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This chartist always makes me laugh...


iii-iii-3-3 departing south!






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Hi Bill,

Your chartist friend's chart(CFC) reminded me of an 'old EWC rule'(I read somewhere and use to apply) and that was....

"The 1/2 way point of the wave(iii) of waveiii of wave3 in an impulse wave up/down was very near the halfway point of the total length of the impulse wave".

That point was often located within a gap up/dn of the move and 'allowed' you to estimate a "measure move" location for the demise of the impulse wave.

I guess a point I could be making here, if your 'CFC' could be correct, is that we may not have reached the 1/2 way point yet? HOWEVER, a big querry here is the justification of his WAVE 1 low...I mean where has he started his wave count from...the July 21st High?...and if so, what is he labelling the July 7 and May 2nd Highs as?

So, is this his count?

}}


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billt
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hi G

The key to the Eckert/Allyn type count is:

1356 is a-2

1295 is b-2

1347 is the completion of 2-5 DOWN

The strength of the impulsive wave accelerated at this point.

This Ultra Bearish EW Count then has us in a 1/2, i/ii, (i/ii) completed of the 3rd wave DOWN....

This count would then show a nested pattern through iii-3 until we head past the 61% fibo target...thats the idea.

We need a week or two of big red days for this to prove valid. An October 2008 type crash....

bill


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billt
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hi guys

The SPX Wave 4 CT idea looks finally to be nearing a completion. Waves d-4 and e-4 may have got close to completing last night. Perhaps another leg higher to hit the overhead CT trend line.

Prices reversed off the ma20 on SPX daily on Friday, so we might be there for a 'throw under' e-4?

The Ultra Bear Count is still valid. All those 'threes' are still an outside option?


bill


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billt
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Still favoring the 'black/grey' wave 4 CT at the moment.

A 3 wave pattern south from c-4, may have completed d-4. However, it fell short of the trend line.

'Blue' Ultra Bear count unlikely,... but valid.







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billt
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Lots of options on the EW....

With a potential Bear Flag setting up, the more bearish EW counts look to me to be the more probable. A 'measured move' 245 point drop from 1230, targets 985....(c.1010 low)?

The 1258-1347 price action back in June/July looks more 3 wave corrective to me. This results in Wave 2 completing at 1347.

Currently, the RSI is oversold on the 60 min, but there is plenty of room on the Daily.

With the $CPCE rolling back into a bearish mood, this leg south may get some traction.





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boomer
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Here is an update of my S&P500 chart




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billt
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Hey Boomer

My own view is that the Financial Crisis emerged from the excesses of the 1980s & 1990s. I feel there is a particular significance to the 2000 high - so I agree at that juncture.

Caldaro has Primary III of SC1 completing @ 1553, at the 2000 high at that time. I prefer his count up until that point. However unlike Caldaro, I feel that Primary IV of SC1 is not yet complete, and that it will take several more years before it runs its course. The previous ‘big shock’ events in the 1930s & 1970s corrections took 15-17 years to unfold before the next Bull run.

If you look at the SPX Inflation adjusted 120 year chart, the pattern and time period is a bit more obvious.

Rudy’s Count has a similar short term outcome. Rudy/Andrew’s 4 year cycle work suggests that the May 2011 high was a significant high turning point, so on that basis I have difficulties seeing the May 2011 high being taken out before we reach a new lower low – but I could be wrong!


If Wave e-IV completes in a similar rate of decline as a-IV or c-IV then we will may complete a lot earlier....














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boomer
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Hi Bill,

Thanks for the feedback.

I'm basing my projection on an interpretation that we are in some sort of complex correction coming off the last major move up - (1974 low to 2000 high).

In reference to the chart I posted.
Minor wave b of D, just made a textbook 38.2% retracement
of minor wave a of D. I don't rule out that my b wave count may not have completed yet and we could see a new low at around 1018, (50% retracement of wave a of D).

I concede my overall count is probably contra to popular beliefs in the world of "EW blogoshpere", be that as it may, I'm not trying to change anyone's mind, just throwing my opinion into the mix.

Cheers for now
Boomer

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