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Archive through July 13, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Our Daily Bread » Archive through July 13, 2010

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rdumas
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Username: rdumas

Post Number: 3581
Registered: 11-2006

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Thursday, July 08, 2010 - 04:45 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

Looking at the chart below the volumes appear to be in the normal to perhaps slightly lower range, so there is definitely investor participation at this stage. I agree with you though about people being hesitant because of the volatility. I think you really have to be on your toes to make consistent money in the market at present.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ody
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Post Number: 5220
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Thursday, July 08, 2010 - 05:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy: volumes

I must confess that I looked too early. Counting often goes on for quite a while! However, 1,476,982,582 does remain on the low side, particularly if this curiously positive day were to be interpreted as signalling a new direction. For that to be the case we'd need quite strong volumes. However, I did underrate the up volume because I looked at the wrong time, even so.







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ody
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Thursday, July 08, 2010 - 08:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Colin's latest newsletter

I always read Colin's newsletters with interest, but the most recent one particularly so. Notably the section which deals with the subject "Commodity Exports Fall While Manufactured Exports Rise": extremely important information, of which I had not otherwise been at all aware.


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ody
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 12:04 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Is this the person Australia will choose for its PM?
------------------------------------------------------
From the Australian:

JULIA Gillard today denied that she had publicly specified East Timor as the site of a proposed regional processing centre for asylum-seekers.

Two days after a speech in which she revealed that she had discussed the proposal with President Jose Ramos-Horta, Ms Gillard spoke out to correct the “impression that I made an announcement about a specific location”

“Once again, with respect and, obviously happy to be judged on what I say, and what I said in the speech was not that. I did not say that,” she told 4BC radio.

In her speech to the Lowy Institute on Tuesday, Ms Gillard said: “... today I announce that we will begin a new initiative.

“In recent days I have discussed with President Ramos Horta of East Timor the possibility of establishing a regional processing centre for the purpose of receiving and processing irregular entrants to the region.”
--
Results: Timor solution

Thanks for voting!
Did you get the impression that under the PM's plan East Timor would be the site for a regional processing centre?

* Yes 79.17% (1566 votes)
* No 20.83% (412 votes)

Total votes: 1978
--
Since the speech the idea that East Timor was the intended site of the centre has firmly taken hold without contradiction.


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ody
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 12:09 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Stocks in most markets are up - and for the most part on good news, too.


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bridog
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 01:52 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody,

Thank you for your assistance with APA, much appreciated . .

Regards,
Bridog


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ody
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 10:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A potential prize for Abbott

Robert Gottliebsen (Business Spectator)

Published 7:39 AM, 9 Jul 2010 Last update 10:11 AM, 9 Jul 2010

Tony Abbott might be getting most publicity on the mining tax and refugees but he has announced a policy to protect independent contractors and small business that is truly ground breaking.

If Julia Gillard does not follow him in at least some of these areas Abbott has an issue that will win him many marginal seats. Clearly Abbott follows Business Spectator closely because two of his initiatives are precisely what we have been advocating and the government has been ignoring.

One of the best initiatives of the Howard government was to set clear tests to determine whether a person was declared a contractor or an employee. The rules have been working well and the tax office has been winning cases in the court.

But the unions got into the ear of assistant treasurer Nick Sherry and the taxation review board came up with a crazy proposal that is best described as the small business equivalent of the original mining tax disaster. It would decimate independent contracting, turning many into a strange form of employee. It completely misunderstood the role of independent contracting in high technology, offices and trade areas. I described some of the changes in (One man can make Abbott PM, March 3). Instead of throwing the measures out Sherry endorsed them and gave them to the Henry committee, which supported action but did not spell out what to do (Rudd's other tax blunder, June 23).

So far the government has been refusing to say whether it will introduce the Sherry-endorsed proposal to decimate independent contracting or leave the situation as it is. Abbott is very clear – he explained yesterday that he will not change the current independent contracting system (the personal services income legislation) and invited the government to follow him.

But Abbott went further. These days small business is the main group affected by unfair contracts. But contrary to the stance of the ALP in opposition, small business has been ignored in the unfair contracts legislation, (Stopping small business bullies, June 29). Abbott has embraced the old ALP policy and will incorporate small business in the unfair contracting legislation.

Currently in cabinet there is little understanding of small enterprise. Abbott will make the small business minister a member of cabinet and give that minister no other responsibilities. In addition there will be a small business ombudsman.

This is an enormous play by Abbott. In theory all Gillard has to do to neutralise most of the Abbott initiative is leave the personal services income legislation as it is. But this might be difficult because Sherry may have given undertakings.

Both the coalition and ALP research shows that small business people tend to congregate in marginal seats.

According to Roy Morgan Research about 5.6 per cent of all Australians classify themselves as self-employed. Morgan says the self employed now heavily in favour of the L-NP (58 per cent) ahead of the ALP (42 per cent) on a two-party preferred basis

Electorates with a much higher proportion of self-employed than the national average include the ALP marginal seats of Franklin (Tas) 10.8 per cent, Forde (Qld) 10.6 per cent, Page (NSW) 10.4 per cent, Leichhardt (Qld) 9.7 per cent, Bennelong (NSW) 9.7 per cent and Deakin (Vic) 7.6 per cent.

Given that the self employed will influence two or three voters this is huge potential prize for Abbott.


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rdumas
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 10:37 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Evolving Pattern on the XJO

Yesterday I sent my fellow Musketeers the following chart for the XJO (note the chart time stamp of 3:15pm).

Note that I have encircled a couple of corrective waves and in the title of my chart I have mentioned the forming of waves of the same level. To a non EW student that would have no meaning at all but to me it means a great deal and in fact is indicating the 'longer than expected rally' that Dolphin spoke of yesterday is now well and truly on the cards.

One of the difficulties with EW analysis in identifying future patterns is that many patterns exhibit the same wave forms in the early stages of their development. For example, a Zigzag once completed has a 5 wave impulsive pattern for wave 1, a corrective pattern for wave 2 and then another 5 wave impulsive pattern for the third wave.

Note however that the first 3 waves of an impulse pattern has exactly the same format. The only thing that tells us that an impulse wave is the future pattern (and not a Zigzag) is when we form a corrective pattern for the 4th wave and another 5 wave impulsive pattern for the 5th wave.

Readers may remember that in my post at COB yesterday I said that the pattern was a little ambiguous and could go either way. What the guaranteed move up today has revealed is the very real (and high probability) that this rally will be a 5 wave impulse rather than a 3 wave Zigzag.

So, what is the upshot of all of this? Readers of my market wrap will recall that I had suggested the following longer term pattern for the XJO. This shows that Minute wave Circle b shown as a green dashed line would be short of range and time and then that would be followed by the Minute wave Circle c that would terminate way below Minute wave Circle a.




The change to this scenario now is that Minute wave Circle b will take longer to form and move up much higher than first anticipated and that Minute wave Circle c is likely to terminate somewhere around the same level as Minute wave Circle a as shown in the following chart. The chart below depicts that part of the above chart that is encircled in a red dashed line which has now be revised in this post. Hence the pattern forming for the higher level Minor wave C now becomes a Flat pattern.








I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eblode
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 10:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bridog,
Just to keep you up to date I have bought into TOL, TPM, and added to MMS and PMV.
Once we cross 4500 it's up,up and away.

Eugenio


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ody
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 10:49 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy, - Is it the case that you forgot to post your charts? I have difficulty comprehending your analysis without them.


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ody
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 10:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Eugenio, - How sure can you be that we shall get beyond that 4500? The markets are very volatile at the moment, and what looks like a new start for one or two days can - and often does - change into a fall quite readily. Have you noticed that our market, which was widely seen as going up, has now actually fallen into the red? Sure, it is early days; but it does make me wonder whether you've taken into account the possibility that we shan't go to that 4500. Or at least not for the time being. One factor to take into account is that while there certainly are bulls, or technical analysts, seeing the market as going up, there are also bears who have no faith in either the markets or in the solidity of the "global recovery", and who are seeking the place their money away from share markets.


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rdumas
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 11:14 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody,

That's strange because the charts come out okay on my IC website. I'll post them to you privately.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 11:23 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



My Elliott Wave Ramblings

Hi Folks,

Based on the private mail that I get, there are definitely a number of readers who are interested in the EW side of things. I am however conscious of the fact that it can be pretty mind boggling stuff for those who are not interested.

There are in fact some readers who are interested in even more depth on the EW stuff. For that reason I am seriously thinking of starting a sub thread to the Hilarius Hall of Fame thread that focusses mainly on the EW side of things. I don't really want to bog the thread down with in depth discussions about EW. I would be interested in hearing people's preferences. I would understand completely if readers wanted a separate thread and would not feel insulted if that were the case.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ody
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 11:30 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



This is interesting in that it considers two quite different possibilities for our market. Alas, I cannot reproduce the chart, which shows suggestively that we could get a replay of 2009 but also of 2008. Anyway, I leave it to Rudi to explain ...

I share his uncertainty, and if anything am in general inclined to think that any rally (and there are signs of it occurring) would be more like the one in 2008, and for rather similar reasons as prompted the subsequent fall then.
---------------------------------------------------

Smells A Lot Like 2009, Or Does It?
FNArena News - July 09 2010

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck

It has become a popular expression in financial circles in Sydney, in New York and just about everywhere around the world: this week's rally seems to have all the characteristics of the one that took off in March 2009.

The suggestion is, of course, that investors should not zoom in on the many fears and dangers that are still lurking around, but instead zoom in on cheap looking valuations and join the party.

Technical market analysts at Barclays Capital point out this morning there is indeed what seems to be a similar pattern on price charts for the S&P500 index between July 2009 and July 2010.

The one key characteristic that makes July this year look like a copy of twelve months ago is that the leading US index makes an initial false breakdown below technical support, which happened in both years, but then posts a rally higher instead.

It happened in 2009 and it seems to be happening again, so what's to worry about?

Taking a two-year look into the past, Barclays chartists note July 2008 showed exactly the same pattern. First what seems like a very ominous break below key technical support, and then a rally higher instead.

The problem in 2008 was that a little further down the track the rally proved nothing but a temporarily breather and soon the index trended back to the ominously broken support level in July, and then gave in for bigger losses.

Said chartists are at present bearish on risk and on equities, so their bias is towards a repeat of the 2008 scenario (though not necessarily of the same size), more so than to expect the next big rally a la 2009.

For now, however, historical patterns appear to be pointing into the direction of a new rally. Whether this rally proves to be a repeat of 2009, or of 2008, will be determined a little further into the year.


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market_mad
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 11:33 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Great idea to start up a thread solely focused on EW in my view. I'm finding the stuff more and more fascinating as time goes on!

Cheers
MM

PS I'm still holding those long CFD's - looking to reverse them around 4420 - not entirely convinced it will get there tho!


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eblode
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 11:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ody,
You asked "How sure can you be that we can get beyond that 4500?"
Quite frankly I am not sure. No one can be sure of anything in the market. However you must play the odds. Good companies survive. Good times or bad. Solid earning companies with good management will always be able to sit out any rough and patchy markets. Right now I feel we are gradually building up a stronger economy than we had last year. Negatives are less drastic, positives are showing more strength both here and overseas. Sentiment rules the market and right now sentiment is improving. That's why I see a breakthrough of 4500. If the government can return to confidence in the electorate then we shall be up and over the 5000 mark. So far this is not happening, but it will in time. Only a fresh new Liberal government will restore this confidence in my opinion.

Eugenio


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rdumas
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 11:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



4500 for the XJO

It's an interesting level that Eugenio brought up because there is some very strong resistance at that level as can be seen from the following chart. We can also see that the 200 day EMA acts as support during a bullish phase and resistance during a bearish phase of the market cycle. Currently that moving average sits at around the 4559 level.





The Flat pattern that I suggested could play out in the coming few weeks would require the rally leg to recover at least 70% of the down move from 4622 on the 21st of June to 4182.3 on the 6th July. That would mean a move to at least 4409.09. For a number of reasons I think that level is achievable.

Whilst a move to 4500 is possible, I very much doubt that during this phase in the market cycle that this level could be sustained.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 11:45 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

Thanks for that feedback. That way at least I won't feel guilty about getting into some more depth.

If that latest pattern does play out (and hopefully tonight's action on the US market may even give us greater clarity) then I will re-enter late in the corrective phase that will follow that higher level impulse wave (which can't be all thar far off completing). I note that we did get to the 4383 level (I suggested 4372 to 4384). It will be interesting to see if it tries for the 4400 level.

I certainly don't think there is any rush to re-enter at this point in time.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 12:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,

Yes, I'm pondering whether just to take a profit now....
Market looks decidedly weak today and I think there will be some profit takers after the squeeze we had early on this week - that's it, talked myself into closing out....

Cheers
MM


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ody
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 12:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy - EW threads

[Sorry - I was delayed in preparing this post. Of course, you could always start a VERY technical thread separately, but I am unsure whether even that is necessary. On the whole I think the material will probably last better, and get more interest, here - simply because no other thread has the same readership.]

It seems to me that your EW approach has now so firmly become part of your T/A in general, and that you put matters so clearly and usefully before us, that your posts as they are should certainly remain - if you continue to be interested in offering them to us! - on ODB.

Everything I see shows to me that your posts as they currently are are very highly valued. Even EW sceptics don't seem to be at all unhappy with what you are producing, and I think that in any case noone would want you to take your posts elsewhere simply because they contain an EW component. Eugenio, for example, has grave doubts about EW per se, but, notwithstanding, attaches great importance to what you produce. This is a thing to remember: that people may be interested in your forecast even if they don't quite see how you get there. I still have difficulty myself at times, but I do increasingly grasp the basic thinking and that you are offering plausible scenarios of how matters may develop. Your emphasis on there often being more than one possibility is particularly helpful.

I could imagine that some posters would want to go into things yet more thoroughly (and frequently?) than you already are doing, and it is just possible that such an approach would leave several of us behind ... but even then I think that it is doubtful that you'd need to take the material elsewhere. In practice, I think people will read those of your posts which they can get something out of; if they find them - as individuals - too technical, they will soon skip on to the next post. In other words, I doubt that the presence of some highly technical posts will deter anyone from coming to this thread.

So I am doubtful about the wisdom of a divided effort. If you ended up posting ONLY in a specialised thread that would be a very major loss to ODB. If you did both I am not sure how easily you would co-ordinate the two efforts - it's a bit like juggling two balls at once, I feel. Also, separate threads have rather a history of "drying up". If you put the material ALL here on ODB I don't think anyone would feel oppressed or that you are doing anything improper or irritating: after all, Incredible Charts encourages the use of charts, and it seems to me that that does not mean in any way that EW charts and accompanying interpretations/explanations are somehow to be seen as not of the right kind.

In sum, I'd be in favour - and I think I probably speak for most or all - of your pursuing your EW analysis here, in a fully appropriate place for it. People will take from you what they can use, and the benefits are likely to be considerable.

ODB now has a long tradition of ongoing posting which is widely appreciated, and that is partly because of the variety of its posting. It's a very "liberal" (with a small in itial "l"!) thread, and the better for the fact that it incorporates and accommodates all sorts of postings. Very occasionally someone strays into the thread who tries to turn it into something else, and history seems to have shown quite amply that people like it, instead, the way it is: we accommodate all sorts of posts here, so long as they try to be genuinely helpful, and everyone appears to be happy with it being genuinely an "open" forum.

(Message edited by Ody on July 09, 2010)


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cat_lady
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 12:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



EW

hi rudy

I agree with what ody said

cat lady


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

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ody
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 12:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The significance of 4500

I am in agreement with what seems to be some sort of consensus on this figure: it is a new barrier for the market to get through.

I think it will be very difficult, given the many negatives that people worry about, for 4500 to be broken, at least in a sustained fashion. We do now have some positive news, admittedly ... but not enough to counteract what remain major problems, as well.

Further, I think Eugenio is right to believe that share market investors will not have confidence enough in our market to take it beyond 4500 until there is a change of government. Most investors are moved by financial considerations, logically enough, and this government, including its new PM, is financially incompetent, as well as fumbling: so it is failing to create sufficient certainty.

It is not INEVITABLE that Labor governments do this: under Hawke we had quite steady periods. But this particular government has nothing of the same ability. It is utterly out of its depth, and throws up all sorts of ideas without doing proper work before. "Policy pronouncement first, work later" is its motto, and the East Timor affair is a good example of the kind of thing that makes people utterly reluctant to trust this regime. Through her own ineptitude and dishonesty (claiming not to say what - firmly on the record - she DID say), she is rapidly losing credibility. Like Rudd, she does not have the character, responsibility, and aptitude needed for the job.

However, Eugenio, many people seem to be so worried that Abbott will introduce rules against abortion etc that they will not vote for him even though he would be a far better manager of the economy. This fear of his oldfashioned ideas is utterly misplaced and based on a misreading of politics: everything Abbott does is sharply focused on what "middle Australia" wants. His own personal beliefs are in this respect totally irrelevant. He is well aware that the country as a whole does not want him to introduce anything that smacks of social conservatism. He (a) would not get in, and (b) would soon be out.


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rdumas
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 12:52 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Ody and Cat Lady,

Thanks for the feedback. It was because of the reasons mentioned by you Ody that I was a bit reluctant to disappear myself from the ODB thread. I'll keep posting on the ODB thread in similar fashion to what I have done in the past but will also open up a separate thread dealing exclusively with EW related material.

On the ODB thread I will continue my focus mainly on the XJO and S&P500 as in the past but will get into other EW specific stuff on the other thread. There may be times when I will post similar things on both threads but I don't think that will be a major issue.

My focus in the other thread will be to assist new (and hopefully experienced) EW analysts in their endeavours to improve their skills in this methodology. As mentioned previously I will put my thread (which will be called "Elliott Wave Watching") as a sub thread to the Hilarius Hall of Fame thread so that those who are subscribed to that latter thread should still get my new thread (I think so anyway).


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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jaded
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ody wrote on Thursday, July 08, 2010 - 05:02 pm:

In recent days I have discussed with President Ramos Horta of East Timor the possibility of establishing a regional processing centre for the purpose of receiving and processing irregular entrants to the region.”




discussed the possibility NOT actually Set It Up,made Financial Arrangements etc Only Discussed the Possibility.

I don't see what all the fuss is about.This innuendo that Julia is Lying etc waffle.

It'd be better if it has to be Off Shore in Timor than Nahru[whatever]A 'temporary' facility set up in Timor would have Aid connotations.Poor Nahru got ripped off by the Big End of Town by investing it's mining royalties 'unwisely'.It went Cargo Cult on Howard's plan.Timor may be able to do something constructive economically by having this facility.

In general I reckon Timor is better than some Pacific Island so the only matter we have to worry about is Do we set up Off Shore Facilities?with Labor deciding.

Besides Timor is in the vicinity of where the boats are stopped.Putting it there may be diplomatic with the Indonesians.May set up dialog between Timor and Indonesia on this Issue.

This is "Lawyer" quibbling about what Julia said.It's all in Discussion not a fait accompli.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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gdd3
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 01:33 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy...Re: My Elliott Wave Ramblings

I applaud your suggestion of starting a EW sub-thread; I for one will 'relish' not having to go back thru reams of archived postings on the "Our Daily Bread" thread just to find either previous interested (EW mainly) postings or my occasional postings...to jolt my fading memory. Why 'applaud' ...because I couldn't see the alternative happening, i.e. other frequent posters here starting a sub-thread for any of, say ...'Daily Overnight Market Summary", 'Latest Political Ramblings' or 'Developments in the Mining Tax'!

Until the 'new' sub-thread is started....

Rudy states above..."For example, a Zigzag once completed has a 5 wave impulsive pattern for wave 1, a corrective pattern for wave 2 and then another 5 wave impulsive pattern for the third wave".... which highlighted a very pertinent and basic EW correction fact and was one of the reasons for my comment...'longer than expected rally'. the other reason was the confluence and possible significance of the cyclical time frames this week.

Rudy, I'm not too sure about your "flat" scenario and can't rule out your previous higher degree scenario(from 5025 high) as I was interpreting that as a "double Zig-Zag" outlook but replacing your A wave for a W-wave and your B wave for an X-wave therefore your C wave becoming a Y-wave to complete the "double Zig-Zag" but you are calling your little a-wave(~4620-4180) as a 3-wave move and not an impulse down. I guess my question from here is what type of EW corrective pattern are you calling the move from the 5025 high and indeed the all time high?

All a bit confusing in words and further discussion best left to the new Sub-Thread and when I can master a selective 'snapshot' software I'm about to install.

Cheers
Dolphin

}


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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

I have just posted my first post on the Elliott Wave Watching thread.


https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/messages/427230/2591748.html

I'll try and answer your question a little later as I have a few chores to attend to.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ody
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jaded: you did not read with care:
----------------------------------------------------------
This is the important part of what I posted:

[From The Australian - these are not MY words:]
JULIA Gillard today denied that she had publicly specified East Timor as the site of a proposed regional processing centre for asylum-seekers.

Two days after a speech in which she revealed that she had discussed the proposal with President Jose Ramos-Horta, Ms Gillard spoke out to correct the “impression that I made an announcement about a specific location”

“Once again, with respect and, obviously happy to be judged on what I say, and what I said in the speech was not that. I did not say that,” she told 4BC radio.

In her speech to the Lowy Institute on Tuesday, Ms Gillard said: “... today I announce that we will begin a new initiative.

“In recent days I have discussed with President Ramos Horta of East Timor the possibility of establishing a regional processing centre for the purpose of receiving and processing irregular entrants to the region.”
-------------------------------------------------------
[Me, now ...] The issue is very clear. It is not whether she had discussed more than a "possibility": that is what she did say she had discussed, in her speech to the Lowy Institute.

The point is that she subsequently DENIED that she had specifically mentioned EAST TIMOR. Yet the speech which is on the record is quite specific about that, as the possibility discussed, and noone other than Gillard - including Ramos Horta - has denied, or been able to deny, that that is what was discussed.

What we have here is a politician who flatly denies that she said something which we can all see she did say.

Such an absurd, verifiable contradiction of the truth of the matter is not a "lie" in the more general sense of the word: it takes the statement of untruths to a new level, in that you say A, and then claim that you said B, while everyone can see that your claim is wrong.

And that, my dear friend, is how Australia is taking the matter. As would happen in any other country. Despite hearing a lot of spin, I think we can still tell whether a politician is flatly contradicting her own earlier statement or making a statement that is consistent with the earlier one.

She is now in great difficulty on a number of scores. They have been extensively discussed in the media, and I don't think I need to enumerate them thoroughly. Briefly put, she approached the President of East Timor, not its Prime Minister. This is simply out of tune with protocol. She led the electorate to believe that her "possibility" was something quite feasible while almost certainly it will not be. She mentioned East Timor specifically in such a way that noone doubted that THAT would be the regional centre - which is also how East Timor itself interprets her words. Then she denied that she had said what she did say. And it turns out that - rightly - the East Timorese are amazed by her actions and her declaring what she did to Australians, and that they can only point out that it is highly doubtful that East Timor can accommodate her wishes. Meanwhile she has no alternative place for her processing centre either. If this is not a fiasco - thus far - then I don't know what is. If she does not come up with something quite solid soon this whole bizarre venture will be remembered as totally inept, and to an extent, at least, actively misleading.

Can you really imagine that Bob Hawke would have made such a mess of this, or John Howard? They would have made it VERY plain from the outset whether or not they were just toying with an idea or whether they had something solid to announce. And they certainly would not have mentioned East Timor one day and then denied that fact later.


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eblode
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Ody,
I believe that every politician including Abbot was stunned at what happened to Rudd by his own party. It is a severe warning to any PM that if they overreach their electorate with schemes of grandeur or extreme measures the axe will fall upon them swiftly and without mercy. The Australian public are no fools and there is a limit to what they will endure from any PM regardless of party.

Eugenio


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ody
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Rudy, - First post

That is an excellent beginning, and I can see why you would want to put this in separate thread. Make sure that everyone knows that the material is YOUR material, for you may want to use it for a book, callled "Introduction to EW Analysis" or something similar. And I mean this seriously.


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rdumas
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Thanks Ody. Much appreciated. There have been soooo many books written on the subject that I don't think that I'll add to those already in print. If I can in any way make it simpler to understand through my posts then I am satisfied.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ody
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What sort of people does the Labor party take us for?

From The Australian:
-------------------------------------------------------
Julia Gillard performs another U-turn on Timor refugee processing centre

* Joe Kelly
* From: The Australian
* July 09, 2010 4:09PM

JULIA Gillard conceded today that she had nominated East Timor as a possible location for a proposed regional refugee processing centre.

In a series of interviews that will only add to confusion over how the tiny nation figured into her plans, Ms Gillard today stopped denying that she had said the facility could be built in East Timor.

“Earlier this week I made the case that regional processing needs to be part of our long-term solution to unauthorised arrivals. I said in my speech that one possibility was a centre in East Timor,” she said in a speech in Perth this morning. [THAT IS NOT IN FACT HOW SHE PUT IT THEN, - ODY; SEE MY EARLIER POSTS.]

Ms Gillard repeated the concession in an ABC radio interview.

“In that speech, I indicated that I believed East Timor was a possibility for the regional processing centre,” she said.

But yesterday the Prime Minister denied she had identified a specific location for the processing centre in her speech on Tuesday to the Lowy Institute in which she first floated the concept.

Ms Gillard also defended East Timor's response to her proposal as appropriate.

“Prime Minister Gusmao is right to say that a concrete proposal is the next step,” she said in her address this morning. [HE AND HORTA SAID THAT BECAUSE THEY HAD BEEN GIVEN *NOTHING* SPECIFIC BY GILLARD, - ODY.]

“He confirmed that his Government is open to considering one. He also said a proposal would need extensive consideration and debate, through the East Timorese community and Parliament. That reflects the proper functioning of a democracy.” [NO MENTION HERE OF A 30-MINUTE MEETING OF THE EAST TIMOR PARLIAMENT WHERE EVERYONE REJECTED THE IDEA.]

Ms Gillard has been under opposition pressure today to nominate another location other than East Timor.

She has faced protests in Perth over the asylum-seeker plan and narrowly missed being hit by an egg while entering the ABC studios.

A 58-year-old man was arrested over the incident.

[AM I RIGHT IN THINKING THAT EVEN RUDD WAS NOT TARGETED IN THIS WAY?? - ODY]


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peterloh
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Ody,

This is the face of the Labour Party. Julia has given the public an image that she is capable of providing the right solutions to some of the country problems.Unfortunately some of the problems created by the party was the solution given became a problem itself.Labour is a collective party, however Rudd has taken upon himself that ultimately he was responsible for all the wrongs.No minister seemed to have own up that it was a cabinet decision and that the minister concern should have taken ownership of the problems created.Like many individuals I am concern with the direction the country is taking, however I do not anticipate that dumping the prime minister was the solution.
Given time we will know, whether a better individual has replaced the previous one, one that will lead our country
into a better nation.

Cheers

peter


-------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: Please note that comments made in this column is mainly for the interpretation of charts in technical analysis. It is not made in my professional capacity and should not be taken as advice.In my professional capacity I am only allowed to give advice on certain managed funds authorised by my license dealer.Any share discuss is for general interest and should not be relied on to make an investment decision.It is likely that I may own the shares that we discussed as a trade or as an investment. Please consult your stock broker or financial adviser in regard to your personal situation.

The views expressed here contain information derived from public available sources that has not been independently verified.No representation or warranty is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information.Any forward looking information in this representation has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.It should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast by the writer.

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ody
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ASZ (ASG Group)

It will be remembered that some days ago I analysed this company as to my mind one of the best currently available.

My argument met with a positive response here.

Now, I see with pleasure that The Eureka Report is also highlighting this company - and extensively so.

Well ... it's satisfying to identify something which others agree is good. And it confirms me in the view that, although I have been out of the market as a stock picker for some time, I have not lost my ability to find what I'd want, in a more promising market.

It's certainly not a matter of simply taking any stock that is a star stock on Stock Doctor. I started at a different end, and as it happened (not without reason, I am quite sure) Stock Doctor had it on its list, too. But many of their companies I would not recommend.

My broker here in Adelaide (I am old-fashioned in still using a full-service broker) regularly also highlighted my favourite stocks in the Sunday Mail (but that now no longer recommends shares). The Reject Shop, years ago, was a good example. Navitas has been another in more recent times (wouldn't recommend that just now!). And thus I could go on.

A form of plagiarism, in some cases? I suppose so - but I don't tell people about my choices if I feel I must keep them to myself. And I LOVE picking stocks, so that is my key concern - I am quite happy to see other people making money, so long as I make sure they are not doing it at my own expense.

I am PARTICULARLY happy to have helped people avoid heavy losses during the share market collapse. I am interested to see that just recently The Eureka Report has begun to tell its readers that may be timing the market is a better idea than buy-and-hold.

With many things, those of us who are regular posters here can actually with satisfaction say "You read it here first".
Or, at the very least, that we were AMONG the first.


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jaded
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gdd3 wrote on Friday, July 09, 2010 - 01:33 pm:

'Latest Political Ramblings'




ody,I'm not real up to date on latest 'radical' thought but I've picked up that ONE of them is OPEN Borders.
This idea mostly is coming out of the U.S. as a Global Putsch.

See the yanks are being persuaded to Open their Borders to the Mexicans etc.
Not only their Statue of Liberty-Send me ya huddled masses- is being used but also the Big Political Weapon of the Jews.

Like in the 1930's the jews of Europe were turned away so now that is the Big Case FOR Open Borders.

I know this is Real and Happening because a share I'm interested in was involved with this Made Billion$$ from Hedge Funds,one Dave Gelbaum was 'caught' offering Millions to the Sierra Club,on condition they backed Politically Open Borders.

but that's the Yanks,right?

Today,you'll find Nahru was REJECTED for 'Holiday Camping" our Illegals because Narhu is not a signatory to the UN charter of Refugees or some dang One Worlder Charter.
Not being a signatory casts Howard's Pacific Solution location into..well,,,d'Darkness.
No regulatory controls and UN Sanction and the Labor Party 'cares' about such 'approval'.

Now Julia may seem to have made some big faux pas.I think the Timor Gov't may have made a 'error' themselves.Better not come whinging around for some more "Aid".

You do realise/know that the Timor Gov't is a ruling by Old Men.That they indulge in jobs for the Elders over the Majority Youth?

An example is that Portugese was made the Official Language when every one say under 40 Never Learnt Portugese and so are Eliminated from Public Service jobs for example.No Portugese certainly bars them from high level Ministerial 'Talks'.

Ody,Timor is a very marginal 'cause'.For starters they don't have a good style of 'ethnic' food to warm up Oz Inner City 'Elites'!!

anyhow,best back off from where angels fear to tread.

cheers.


" Hear what you Say...
But see what you Do!"

Sir Zelman Cowen c 1970.

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ody
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jaded: immigration policies

I was not wading into the very issue of immigration policies, i.e. whether or not we should have open borders, retention centres, etc. I was not even in any primary way concerned with the MORALS of Gillard's "solution". My one and only concern was with the fact that she claimed to have a policy (a supposedly "new" policy too, though it isn't) on border protection, and that she has stuffed up her foray into this territory (figuratively speaking) in grandiose fashion, with examples of gaffes and inconsistent conduct, as well as of sloppiness and condescension. I am not greatly concerned with the policy per se, but GILLARD'S FAILINGS AS A SUPPOSEDLY COMPETENT POLITICIAN. I think these are rapidly losing her supporters. And the matter interests me - and I think people who invest generally - because it will make a difference, financially, whether or not she will get elected.


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gdd3
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Friday, July 09, 2010 - 06:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



D'jaded wrote...

"gdd3 wrote on Friday, July 09, 2010 - 01:33 pm:
'Latest Political Ramblings'"

Now I won't assume this reference was just yet another attempt to have a dig at me but couldn't really see why you needed to refer to me in order to post what you posted following the reference.

However, D'jaded, if you where to start up another sub-thread here, entitled "Latest Political Ramblings", I may 'visit' and make a comment or two!....not unless you would like me to start up another thread on your behalf that you won't comment on!

Have a good weekend.

Dolphin


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ody
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Families hurting more now than GFC peak
July 11, 2010 - 7:07AM

AAP

It's been revealed that families are hurting more now than at the height of the global financial crisis.

A special report by The Sunday Telegraph says households have been forced to drastically cut back on spending, stores are empty despite unprecedented sales and the property market is dire, with 40 per cent of auctions in Sydney last week resulting in no sale.

It says western Sydney residents have told - in more than 200 in-depth interviews - that they owe more on their credit cards and have less in their pocket than at both this time last year and at the 2007 election.

Retailers are slashing prices by up to 70 per cent to entice customers, but are struggling to sell stock.

In more than 600 detailed interviews conducted in marginal electorates around Australia, the majority of voters said they felt the economy was volatile and had changed their spending habits.

Spending on a broad range of consumer items, including clothing, holidays, restaurant and takeaway food, newspapers and magazines is shrinking as Australians struggle to cope with interest rates, increased cigarette taxes, rising petrol prices and tight rental and housing markets.


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ody
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[PLEASE NOTE: IT WAS DIFFICULT TO CUT AND PASTE THIS COMPLETELY ... BUT THE END RESULT IS *REASONABLY* ACCURATE]

G20: Why we all want to be Canadian now

Page last updated at 07:40 GMT, Friday, 25 June 2010 08:40 UK

By Caroline Hepker
BBC World Business Report

*Canada managed to avoid the banking collapses suffered elsewhere*

Even on a rainy weekday at Ottawa's By Ward market, Canadian shoppers are cheery.

As Americans and Europeans face deficits and drastic government cuts, Canada's economy is recovering from only a mild recession.

Sheltering near the maple syrup stall, local restaurant promoter Melissa Grecco says Canada escaped the fate of the US.

"We felt the effects on corporate bookings, companies not spending money on staff or booking on a limited budget. But we didn't feel it as much as the US. And within the last couple of months our business has exploded."

So Canada is now one of the top performing industrialised economies. How did they manage it?

For a start, painful reforms in the 1980s and early 1990s.

Canada's government, based in the stone neo-gothic Parliament building in Ottawa, along with individual provinces, were able to afford an economic stimulus package.

Whilst other nations borrowed, Canada had a budget surplus for over a decade.

According to James Flaherty, Canada's jaunty finance minister, it was also down to a more cautious approach.

"The Canadian character is relatively fiscally conservative. Canadians themselves are relatively prudent, I think, in terms of how much they are prepared to borrow and the risks they are prepared to take."

*Safe as houses*

Certainly, fewer risks are allowed in the housing market.

The industry is of a size that it is easier for the regulator to get their arms around it

Canadian home values have held fairly steady according to Pierre de Varennes, a real estate broker in Ottawa, with 350 employees.

He says stricter standards for homebuyers meant no housing boom and bust in Canada:

"In Canada, you cannot over-mortgage your property. In fact if you are financing more than 75% of the value, you have to get insurance. Not for you but for the bank."

With that protection, Canadian banks have done well from mortgages. And with less exposure to toxic sub-prime mortgages in the US, Canada's six biggest financial institutions, headquartered on Bay Street in Toronto, survived the financial crisis disaster free.
'Big stick'

The Toronto skyline that Gordon Nixon, the President of Royal Bank of Canada, can see from his office on Bay Street not only looks very different to Manhattan. It is run differently, too.

"The structure of our marketplace in Canada is very different," he says.

"Most mortgages are held on the balance sheet of banks. The terms are more conservative and there is not as aggressive a marketplace.

"Sub-prime lending is very limited in the Canadian marketplace. What was the weakest asset class in the US and spread to the balance sheets of many banks was one of the strongest in Canada."

But Canada has also been happy to wield a bigger stick when it comes to financial regulation.

Banking superintendent Julie Dickson credits Canadian firms with better risk management.

But banks must also adhere to more stringent standards. What's more, her office is within walking distance.

"We spent a lot of time looking at what they are doing on a day-to-day basis. We also had good rules when it comes to capital and leverage. And the industry is of a size that it is easier for the regulator to get their arms around it."

Canada's financial sector is smaller and perhaps more insulated than in the US.

Critics add that Canadian banks are less innovative, with higher costs for consumers. Talking to Canadians, they seem to shrug off those arguments, happy with the results of a more prudent and, some argue, less greedy economic philosophy.

The G8 and G20 is a crucial opportunity for Canadian policy makers, eager to vaunt their successes to leaders gathered in Toronto.

And Canada need only point to growing businesses like Magmic. The Canadian IT firm makes games for the Blackberry, Apple's iPhone and iPad.

John Criswick, who founded in the firm in 2002, says the recession was painful but the odds have been tipped in his favour because he is in Canada.

"The recession definitely had an impact on us. We are half the size we used to be. But we are growing out of that and being in Canada has aided us in that recovery. It is pushing us beyond what our competition are doing in the US."

John's most profitable game? The iconic US brand the New York Times Crossword - currently the top selling gaming app on the iPhone.

The Canadians, it seems, have answers for even the toughest puzzles and they are keen to share their strategies with the rest of the world. Why in this economy, we all want to be Canadian.


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eblode
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Ody,
To add to your post on a bleak economy here in OZ I must say that for the school holidays Surfers Paradise was very quiet. Plenty of vacancies and some big discounts in restaurants and hotels. I believe these resorts have outpriced themselves with Theme Parks costing the average family $300. for a few hours outing. Food is expensive as well as general entertainment areas. Realism should kick in soon or else there will be a lot of shops for lease.

Eugenio


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cat_lady
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Eugenio

that's because they were all at yamba! had to book to get a restaurant! drive around the block six times to get a park! buy movie tickets in advance. a friend who has a cafe there ran out of food twice! (and she's a very experienced restauranter so it wasn't poor management) and walking down the street was worse then pitt street at christmas. but then Yamba doesn't have theme parks or the like, just great beaches for swimming and walking on, great fishing etc etc. my daughter's friend who normally travels to europe at this time of year said of Yamba: "Paris is good but Yamba is better"



cat lady


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

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eblode
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Cat Lady,

"Paris is good but Yamba is better"
Surely you jest with me madam. Where the hell is Yamba?????

Eugenio


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cat_lady
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Eugenio
I could tell you but then I'd have to shoot you.....
cat lady
p.s. said traveller IS a ten year old


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

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rdumas
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Sunday, July 11, 2010 - 05:09 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible Future Price Action for XJO

The ASX200 Futures contract appears to be around 8 points at present. Looking at the move for the 3rd wave of the current corrective wave we are currently sitting at the 150% of the 1st wave range. A move to around the 4410 level will be the 161.8% of the range of the 1st wave.

It is likely therefore that the current short term rally is getting very close to completing. If I am correct then I would expect a retracement to the target zone detailed in the chart below. Once complete we would then start another rally upwards which will have some Fibonacci relationship to the range of the entire current abc rally.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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bridog
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Monday, July 12, 2010 - 02:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Ah Eugenio,

You know how to pick em! I followed you into PMV at $6.13 after noting a couple of interesting volume spikes. Other than that I have been buying ASZ (thanks Ody), APA, ANZ, MTS, TRS, and selling AVO, GOLD and AGO. Actually trading way too much.

Having said that I'm planning adding to existing PMV,MCR and WPL . .

Cheers


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rdumas
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Monday, July 12, 2010 - 08:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GOLD and what Governments get up to in order to keep the masses in the dark

Here is a very interesting recent article about GOLD that Paddy sent the rest of the Musketeers this morning. It certainly in part answers why gold has been dumped in recent times.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/7884272/Secret-gold-swap-has-spooked- the-market.html


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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eblode
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Monday, July 12, 2010 - 09:54 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bridog,

You've got more guts than I have.

Eugenio


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market_mad
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Monday, July 12, 2010 - 02:00 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Eugenio,

Are you still confident about our 5500 bet on the ASX 200 before Christmas?

Just wondering what your thoughts are - not having a go at you...

It needs to go up about 25% from here. Not saying that it can't be done only have to look back to the second half of last year for that!)

Hope you are making some money on your trades mate

Cheers
MM


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eblode
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Monday, July 12, 2010 - 05:13 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



MM,
Can't miss!
As they say, there is power in prayer.

Eugenio


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bridog
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Tuesday, July 13, 2010 - 12:57 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Eugenio,

You told me not to be a girlie boy.

Cheers

Bridog







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eblode
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Tuesday, July 13, 2010 - 09:36 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Bridog,
Ha,ha,ha......that's really funny! Let me reward you by taking a look at MRM and TOL. Both shares I bought recently.

Eugenio

 
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