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Trade the Bollonger Band Squeeze

Astrology and Stock Markets

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Archive through March 20, 2011rash50 20-Mar-11  12:08 pm
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rash
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 12:17 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Trying again ...

2

Sorry, I don't seem to be able to get that loaded clearly, even using a white background. However, it'll serve the purpose ... which is just to emphasise the danger of broadening tops, or the "megaphone" pattern which screams loudly at you!

THE Top was a megaphone ... the last small topping pattern we had into last year's mid-year drop was a smaller version ... and we're now within yet another megaphone.

The danger is that these past two smaller megaphones are, probably, part of a much bigger one.

Now, now ... there's no need to go all Chicken Little. Not just yet! hehe

***

I said in the first post today: It's complicated. Eh! The ranges are there, the patterns are there ... and we can always fall back on The Idiot. It's not THAT hard!

Ciao, bon chance - RA


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rdumas
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 01:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall,

The following labelling is not EW labelling but done purely to observe what appears to be repeating patterns.









I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Hi, Rudy

Many thanks for going to the trouble to create and post that chart.

It makes it much easier to grasp my thought pattern about exactly where Auntie's at, where she'll go into May/June ... and what happens when she gets there!

Well done!


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billt
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...and don't think people don't look into the tent when your not looking!


thanks Astro Boy...good stuff!

bill


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gdd3
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 06:55 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall(and Rudy)....

A 'small' technical question re: "The Idiot"....

I notice, Randall, that you use MACD(20,6,9) as your 'default' MACD and not the 'norm' (26,12,9) like most of us(including, I think?, Rudy in some of his charts). Is there any reason for this preference....not that it affects what you have said above in "Aunties" case(post 169 above.... The only area of real concern is that the depth of the MACD trough went lower than at the previous Price low and may need to give a positive divergence signal. ).

Re: Your comment "....where the crashette was necessary to mark The Low for a multi-month distribution pattern leading into a crash....I believe the TMF(wkly) is supporting this!

If you look at the chart below, you can see the Oct.09 swing high sort of ended the accumulation phase and the XJO started its(mentioned) 'multi-month' distribution phase(this is highlighted by the break of the rising{red} trend support line on the TMF and the vertical{also red}line. The question is... "has this Distribution Phase finished or has is not finished?" Well there are arguments for and against.

"Fors"....

(1)...If we look at the 3(blue) dntrend lines on the TMF shown on the chart you can see that once it broke to the upside of these then it signalled the end to the previous 'corrective' phase. Now with two of these the TMF was coming from above the 0% line; understandably the first one(LHS) was during a strong bull run...2003 - 2007 but interestingly the last one(current one?) is during a Bear Market Rally? Anyway, regardless, you can't argue that once this(blue) trend line has(was) broken it marked the beginnings of a 'buying'(accumulation)phase. Now of course the question at present is "are we seeing a breakout from such a dntend line on the TMF now?" Well, yes, sort of...one week out, one week re-test, one week out, one week re-test, and now one week out!('saw-tooth' fashion...now whose confused...a lot of people). For me, I guess the TMF would have to go above the hor'l (green)line I have shown to confirm.

(2)...you could say the we have a 'rising' TMF indicator trend(short yellow) that is in +ve divergence to the price action(over the past 7 weeks...is this the first signs of 'accumulation' happening. Clearly a rising TMF line indicates rising prices. However, again I will be more comfortable if and when the TMF gets above the horizontal (green)line.

(3)...TMF is still above the 0% line and orange trend support line.

"Against"...

(1)...The 'apparent' short-term 'accumulation going on may just prove part of the 'multi-month' distribution phase mentioned(we would have to get above that 'bl..dy' green line I suppose to negate it).

(2)...Any price action below this week's low will confirm a break of price trendline supports(say like the yellow lines I have drawn on the price chart).






Just my 'observations', guys but wanted to say I appreciate the work you both put into this thread!

Cheers
Dolphin}

}


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rash
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Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 08:18 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey, Bill

I thought you were going to throw off that old Flokati rug and put on something more Angus and studly. I've followed your more Bullish outlook with much interest - and have been impressed with your E-Dubya counts for the past few months.

Graham ... I'm still experimenting with Colin's TMF and the best mix to use, since the timeframe used gives quite varied readings.

I'm a fan of using FEW oscillators, but getting to know them intimately.

The Idiot itself is stand alone - a combination of 5WMA set for the closing price and 5EMA set for the opening price.

I recommend two sets of oscillators - one a fast MACD and the second a 3-set of 6, 14 and 50 CCI. You can't put 3 CCIs into one frame on Colin's software.

But the tweaked MACD is easy to set up.

The "why" is that it gives faster signals and is more likely to show reliable divergence than the standard MACD.

1

In this chart, my fast MACD is in the higher frame and the standard is in the lower. The differences are subtle ... but remember what I said about using FEW oscillators and getting to know their behaviour intimately.

You will see at the "A" point, Price makes almost no variation in the 3-thrust bottom ... the standard MACD is still heading downwards ... but the fast MACD gives a subtle indication of positive divergence.

And it proves to be a VERY good signal.

At the "B" point Price spike, the standard MACD gives a higher high, mirroring the price ... but the fast MACD is already starting to waver and warns it's not to be trusted, which is confirmed a few bars later.

And as the most recent downturn was starting, the normal MACD was still rising, while the fast MACD was starting to diverge negatively. Subtle, but that's the point of getting to KNOW them!

And then, of course, it makes an actual cross a little earlier.

So ... that's why my MACD is tweaked - and how I use it.

Ciao - RA


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gdd3
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Thanks Randall...

Apologies, of course I realise now that when you were referring to "The Idiot" in previous posts here you were referring to a combination of 5WMA set for the closing price and 5EMA set for the opening price(altho we can't set for opening prices on I.C.).

However, I'm still a little confused re: your MACD settings...

In your post 169 above I thought I could read that the MACD settings used were 20,6,9 (but it could be 26,6,9) and thats why I asked why you were "tweaking" them. Sure you have answered the "why" part, and very well illustrated indeed, but I'm still wondering what are the 'settings' for your "tweaked" MACD used in your 'fast' MACD illustrated in the post immediately above here.

Yep agree, different time-frames for same oscillators most often give different readings BUT its when you can 'marry' them they become a powerful tool. I used to use 4 short-term time frame Slow Stochs(5min./15min/45min/90min) when trading Futures years ago and found(when patient) that you could buy/sell with comfort(and small stop-losses) on co-ordinated "crosses" from desired levels(extremes and/or trendline support/resistance).

Have a good week...

Dolphin


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ehmu
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Monday, March 21, 2011 - 05:55 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rash wrote on Sunday, March 20, 2011 - 01:08 pm:

And somewhere very recently Hal posted something about Auntie's range.




Is Auntie XJO ?

If so it may be one of these that you're thinking of.






_____ n a m a s t e


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rash
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Morning.

Hal - thanks for those!

Graham - MACD setting is 20,6,9.

IC software will set for opening price. Click "indicators", scroll down the left menu which lists Moving Averages (High), (Low), (Open) and the final one which has no brackets and is based on the closing price. The middle menu will let you set the simple, exponential or weighted part.

Ciao - RA


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gdd3
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Thanks Rash...

Must be the 'medication' I'm on as I thought you were setting your two MACD's one for a close and one for an open price... and that would explain why I.C. can't set for 'opening' prices ON THE MACD...studid me!

Thanks and I wish you a safe week!

Dolphin


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rash
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011 - 11:12 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings!

Bored out of your brain squinting at squiggles?

Yeah! Me, too!

We've talked about Auntie's long-running range ... and, recently, I created a chart of the Dollar Declines in the index in a bid to get some idea of where the one then underway might stop.

So, on the basis of what's good for the goose should also work for the gander, I decided to look at what sort of Inclines followed the Declines.

Based on the bounce from a potential Low at planetary Support last Thursday ... a "normal" incline should get us back to 4877, while an "average" could get us to 4938.

Inclines are in green, Declines in white. Keep hitting the rotate button on the PDF toolbar until the page appears the way your eyes want to see it!

Ciao - RA
application/pdf1
inclines versus declines.pdf (22.2 k)



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ehmu
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Saturday, March 26, 2011 - 01:32 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Randall:

Really looking forward the the weekend write up from the fortune tellers tent.

I'm writing at this time to appeal to you to expand your analysis to include FCX with Polyanna and Auntie.

Here is my reasoning. Copper is about the best indicator of what is happening with international expansion. International rebuilding after disasters also puts high demand on the supply of copper from copper producers, so this rebuilding aspect is also included in the price variations. The price of FCX tracks copper pretty well (see attached chart) but has less volatility than copper futures caused by futures speculation. The price also takes in to consideration the political influence on copper price of governments around the world. (ie--what is their share of copper proper ?--heh, heh, that's quite poetic).

FCX is bouncing off 61.8% on attached weekly chart, and on the weekly idiot has given a buy on price but not yet on MACD. (not shown on these charts). I offer that if we are to continue this world expansion that FCX may also provide opportunity as a very stable investment &/or multiple trades to consider.



ps
attaching fib chart of xjo, and note the seeming agreement with the levels from your quick harmonic targets of 4877 and 4938.





_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rash
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Saturday, March 26, 2011 - 11:28 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



GeeZeus!

I’ve just scrolled back through the past 7 days and realised there’s far too much talk going on … and Randy’s Rule Number One is: Too much is TOO much!

***

Anyway, I want to do a bit of a review … and a bit of a forecast … and TRY to stick to the guts of the matter.

There were 3 key messages last week I now want to review.

1. Was the statistical tendency for markets to make a Low around the Full Moon and rise into the New Moon.

2. Was the following paragraph: “Now, tomorrow the Sun will also enter Aries and its first aspect will be to conjunct Uranus. Even under normal circumstances, the conjunction is strong enough to alter – OR ACCELERATE – the trend currently in play.”

3. And the third was the following statement in relation to Auntie’s All Planets chart: “Anyway, she either has to break immediately above the overhead pressure ... or retreat to Pluto or the Node to pick up the power of the rising (green) Sun line.”

***

1

As things turned out … Sun conjunct Uranus accelerated the trend, rather than changing it; the LoonyToons followed their statistical tendency; and Auntie broke immediately above the overhead pressure.

It is clear from Auntie’s All Planets chart that she will have to repeat last week’s performance of opening above the downtrending green Sun line and flatlining Mercury (purple) if the rally now underway since the Full Moon Low is to continue all the way into the New Moon next weekend.

And this is where, folks, life begins to get complicated.

For the moment, my PRIMARY view remains that the XJO is caught within repeating megaphone patterns, which were outlined last weekend and with an invaluable clarity added by Rudy’s reworking of my initial chart.

It’s a view endorsed by the Inclines versus Declines chart I put up in PDF form last Tuesday.

***

However! There is a chance that “something else” is going on and I am growing increasingly wary of a sudden and unexpected crash – not dissimilar to 1987.

There are 3 astrological “events” next week – and the first two are potentially very significant. The first is that the Sun squares Pluto late Monday night (Sydney time) and the second is that Jupiter opposes Saturn on Tuesday morning. The third is that Mercury goes retrograde on Thursday morning.

Then, in the first week of April as we enter the New Moon zone, Mars will move into Aries and conjunct Uranus, the Sun will oppose Saturn and Neptune will change signs to Pisces.

Now, that’s a LOT of aggressive astro action happening in a short time. And those of you who have been regular peekers into the fortune teller’s tent will realise that it reignites the negative, long-term pattern of the Jupiter/Uranus (Aries) opposition to Saturn in Libra, with all three squared Pluto in Capricorn … the Cardinal T-square.

Too many words? Too much talk? Okay, let’s put in a picture, eh?


2

This is this year’s Bradley Model and the bold dates mark the timing of significant trends. Sometimes the Bradley is screwy … some years it’s spot-on.

February 17 was the high on Auntie … and Pollyanna came a day later.

***

So, what we have here is this:

• A general expectation that wave counts are incomplete and that markets really shouldn’t top out for any further really significant decline until May-June.

• A potential black swan developing sometime during the next two weeks which completely inverts the “general expectation”.

Now the nature of black swan events is that they cannot be predicted. The nature of Uranus is that one cannot predict with CERTAINTY what will happen.

As I indicated last week, Sun conjunct Uranus would either change the trend, or accelerate it (and I even put accelerate in capital letters to emphasise it).

So, if that’s what the Sun can do, imagine the increased impact of Mars, the symbol of energy and drive, making precisely the same aspects from the sign that it rules!

I mentioned to a few people in the past week that Sun square Pluto might relate to the Fukushima Number 3 reactor which is the only one containing both uranium (Uranus) and plutonium (Pluto).

Oh. Jupiter oppose Saturn. This has an historical tendency to occur at market peaks, with an orb of influence of about 10 days.

There is still the historical tendency of markets to “crashette” with Jupiter going into mid Aries and then rise again until the FatBoy enters Taurus (early June).

But there is a lot of astrological energy unleashed in sudden, unexpected, volatile and explosive ways over the next couple of weeks … and the wise move might be to keep the Loss Stops damn tight!!

It’s gonna be a wild ride; I just can’t be certain which way. Either way, this is one freight train you do not want to stand in front of!

Ciao - RA


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rash
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Saturday, March 26, 2011 - 12:30 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello, Hal

I'm afraid I can't help you with individual companies - especially American ones with which I'm not familiar.

However, as a broad, general statement: Copper is a metal ruled by Venus. I'm not sure if it actually has a "sign" rulership and whether it would fall into the Taurean or Libran Venus categories.

However, since it is ruled by Venus I'd imagine that it might be affected beneficially by the Jupiter transit through Taurus.

Individual companies get more difficult - since they will have their own particular incorporation and first trade charts which can be affected by transits.

***

And I wouldn't want to stray into territory which might, mistakenly, be construed as offering any sort of investment advice.

This is, after all, merely a fortune teller's tent ... where some Silly Old Bugger waffles on about imaginary lines drawn in the blackness of space where planets delineate prices and where geometric angles between those planets suggest timeframes for strange events on the Earth.

I mean ... it's not REAL, Hal. You know very well it couldn't POSSIBLY work! GeeZeus, fella, you been out in the woods licking moose moss again?!?!


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rash
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Saturday, March 26, 2011 - 01:41 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Silly Old Bugger is going to talk some more ... but just to quickly update on the "range" and the financials.

1

We have in Neptune/Uranus terms a lot of overhead pressure around the 4800s next week. It's fairly easy to see, tracing the grey and yellow lines back into the past, that Auntie has a lot of difficulty breaking above them and has cracked it only 3 significant times and for relatively short periods since the first real stretch above in January, 2010.

The next chart is the financials, the XXJ. A couple of weeks ago I suggested watching it for a move and last weekend indicated ... "the Time is getting damn close".

The speed of the rise is part of the Arien nature of the current energy in play. Aries is the first of the zodiac signs and is symbolic of a strong, raw, even aggressive energy ... especially with the Sun, Jupiter and Uranus all there. It'll get even moreso when Mars enters its own sign.

My point being that ALL moves will be sudden and aggressive - up OR down!

One needs to be quick to grasp the opportunity - and also prepared to jump out of the way just as quickly.

2


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ehmu
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Sunday, March 27, 2011 - 02:35 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)




rash wrote on Saturday, March 26, 2011 - 01:30 pm:

This is, after all, merely a fortune teller's tent ...




"Hey EHMU, guess you did a really crappy job convincing anyone that copper belongs in the tent instead of those stanky camels, from the chart below looks like Australia stopped selling copper last septermber "









_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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billt
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Sunday, March 27, 2011 - 11:18 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Astro Boy

Just peaked into your fortune teller's tent ... again...


...."where some Silly Old Bugger waffles on about imaginary lines drawn in the blackness of space where planets delineate prices and where geometric angles between those planets suggest timeframes for strange events on the Earth".....


What is interesting is the 'heads up' on the 3 significant astrological events in the next few days:

- Sun squares Pluto late Monday night (Sydney time);
- Jupiter opposes Saturn on Tuesday morning;
- Mercury goes retrograde on Thursday morning.

Thanks for posting your voodoo stuff...it adds to the mix extremely well.


One correction: Hal licks Elk not Moose....those Canadians get very touchy about licking the wrong animal!


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rash
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Hi, Bill.

Thanks for the clarification. I really didn't realise that when Hal confessed to being an Elk eater he was talking about his private life.

***

On a more serious note ... my friend, Kaye Shinker, one of the founders of the modern finance astrology movement and who literally wrote the textbooks on financial astrology, has an answer for Hal (et al) about what lies in store for copper prices in the months ahead.

Kaye's response:

"Copper is considered a Taurus metal. When Jupiter moves through a sign it increases the supply of those things ruled by the sign. Therefore, expect the price of the metal to go down.

The best of breed among the miners of copper will continue to earn a profit and will pay a dividend.

When Jupiter reaches 15 degrees of Aries you will notice the price of copper moving down very slowly. You will note that the Chinese have been hoarding copper, bringing up the price. They will quit."

***

Anyone interested in more than the Silly Old Bugger's occasional waffle can catch up with Kaye and Marlene at their website: www.astrologicalinvesting.com

Membership is free, so you can sign up for the New Moon newsletter or wander through the articles on how Outer Planet sign changes will have an impact on different sectors.

Thanks, Kaye (and Bo!)

Ciao - RA


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ehmu
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billt wrote on Sunday, March 27, 2011 - 11:18 am:

One correction: Hal licks Elk not Moose....those Canadians get very touchy about licking the wrong animal!




Hey guys:
That quote should read "likes & liking", not "licks & licking".

I think that it must be time for me to abstain from the pagan rituals of embibing naturally derived substances. It seems to be affecting my speech centers, where I'm thinking one thing and saying or writing another.

You guys are too funny. My Solar plexes(not astrological), has gone in to spasm, so please excuse me.


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rash
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Greetings … and welcome to the fortune teller’s tent.

Too far, too fast? In all probability, yes. In the past 12 days, the XJO has risen by roughly the same amount it previously took 3 months to achieve.

Nearly a fortnight ago, after it was clear we’d put in a bottom, I posted a PDF chart of Auntie’s Inclines versus Declines, indicating the “normal” move up should take the index back to 4877 and that an “average” move could take it to 4938.

The first target was exceeded slightly on Friday.

Let’s take a look at that chart again.

1

During the “range trading” period which has gone on – and on – since mid-2009, Auntie has been making measured moves up and down. The inclines which follow declines have tended to be from $400 to $450, with one that went $501 and another which rose $560.

At COB on Friday, we entered the “normal” range of a $400ish rise. The “average”, which is slightly distorted by the two 500+ increases, is a $461 recovery.

In his Weekend Market Wrap, Rudy has indicated why and how we have an expectation that the XJO will top out this week.

And I’ll expand a little further on that here.

Firstly, the technical and secondly, the spooky stuff.

Auntie will on Monday reach the limit of a 2nd degree countertrend, which runs from 7 to 12 days. A 1st degree countertrend runs from 1 to 4 days.

Anything past 12 days indicates a cyclical move, likely to last a minimum of 30 days.

So, IF this is a countertrend move, it should end Monday! In fact, if we count the first day, the Time expired on Friday. However, since the first reversal day did not actually break the previous day’s high and was actually a lower close, we can stretch the timeframe to allow for one more higher high … Monday.

IF that is all there is, then two things are likely. Either Monday will leave a candle hanging by a long thread OR Tuesday will be an inside consolidation day before a new leg down.

The spooky stuff is that Monday will be New Moon Day … and, statistically, New Moons are highs. The academic studies give an orb of +/- 3 days.

I don’t think that’ll be the case here. Because of the 12-day timeframe, the dollar value of the incline, and the fact this particular New Moon is an Arien battle fleet tightly opposed to Saturn, it should be either a High or a Low … and it’s very, very, very unlikely to be a Low!

In strong, fast-rising trends, it is possible for markets to continue rising past the New Moon and into the First Quarter Moon, before making a 1st degree countertrend down into the Full Moon. I’m not sure that will happen this time.

Last week, I said:

“The speed of the rise is part of the Arien nature of the current energy in play. Aries is the first of the zodiac signs and is symbolic of a strong, raw, even aggressive energy ... especially with the Sun, Jupiter and Uranus all there. It'll get even moreso when Mars enters its own sign.

My point being that ALL moves will be sudden and aggressive - up OR down!

One needs to be quick to grasp the opportunity - and also prepared to jump out of the way just as quickly.”

I think the past couple of weeks indicate it really has been a “strong, raw, aggressive” energy on the loose. The danger now is that it could turn the other way just as fast … which, basically, supports the technical arguments outlined in Wrudy’s Wrap.

Not much point in waffling any further. Auntie has been in a range since mid-2009 … one of the world’s strongest economies and, simultaneously, one of the weakest stock markets. Previously, she took months of struggle in a VERY weak trend to make the same amount of gains she has now recovered in a two-week rocket ride to the New Moon.

Even if it’s a new uptrend it has simply been too far, too fast and will need to be consolidated and backtested.

There is a danger that it is not a new uptrend leg, but simply a 2nd degree countertrend corrective leg within a larger corrective wave. Exactly which one it is will become clear very fast … because this amount of Arien/Libran energy is a fast-moving battlefield; it’s not the rolling ocean swells of the recent Pisces energy.

I’ll be back later Saturday, perhaps Sunday, with a brief look at Miss Pollyanna. Since we have a new monthly bar to play with, we’ll take a look at the Marshun channels and Miss Polly’s likely range for April.

Ciao - RA

PS: I'm not sure why the software allows posted charts to be about a metre deep but only a few centimetres wide, especially since computers these days tend to have wider screens rather than squarish ones. I'll attach a PDF of the chart. Keep clicking the rotate button until your eyes see what they expect to see and use the zoom out facility.

application/pdf2
inclines versus declines.pdf (195.5 k)



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rash
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Saturday, April 02, 2011 - 05:54 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Okay, pour another gin, turn up your hearing aid, turn down your Pacemaker and settle into your favourite EZ-Lift chair, because it’s time for another thrilling episode of … The Perils Of Pollyanna.

This time a month ago, when the first trading day of March gave us the skeleton of a new monthly bar to play with, we took a look at Pollyanna’s long-range planetary charts and what I call the Mars Bars chart to extrapolate what The Vacuous Bitch’s moves might be for the month.

As you’ll no doubt recall … well you would recall if you remembered your bloody medicine … Polly tends to travel the outer planets via Martian channels. Yes, yes … I know! None of us actually believe it; that doesn’t stop it from actually happening. So, stop crossing yourself and splashing the Holy Water around … people will just think you’re incontinent.

Anyway, here’s where we were back at the start of March: -

1

The Gringa Tramp opened the month sitting on a Mars line which might have taken her north to 1374 or down to 1284.

So it went 30 points lower. Tough titties. You don’t believe in this stuff anyway. It’s as “worthless” as … well, it’s as worthless as SOME *ahem*cough*splutter*contempt*derision* “academics” consider the late and much loved Signor Fibonacci.

Anyway, what did YOU “predict” would happen for the month, eh?

In any case, let’s review the long-range planetary chart. I know what I said because it’s in the PDF I posted on March 5.

“Severe resistance lies just overhead and a retreat to the Saturn zones at 1273/1247 is on the cards at almost any time now.”

2

Well, tsk*tsk. Shocking, worthless. I was off by $1.95.

But, but … that was then and this is now and y’all will just have to forgive me my teddible inaccuracies. Probably too much bloody gin. Or I had the Pacemaker turned a tad too low.

The “resistance” is still there … though, allowing for the probably unlikely event that “something else” is happening, I’ve slotted in a new Price target at 1409.

Now, let’s take another look-see at The Marshun Channels!


3

This is going to be a very interesting month … because we have uptrend channels intersecting with downtrend channels – and a potential upside which breaks the long-term planetary barriers!

Now, personally, I think The Low is safe. I’ve ventured the opinion I think that we’re in the process of establishing the upper and lower levels of a “range” for several months of unloading … before the Bear emerges from hibernation, or the Bull establishes a “bottom line” for the next significant advance.

So, I’ll stick my neck out and say … I think the 1348/1357 zone is likely to be “it” for the upside for April and we are likely to go down to establish a higher Low at 1260, before taking off again for a May-June surge to the low-to-mid 1400s.

Now, I could of course be wrong. Frankly, I’ve always had a deep suspicion of Silly Old Buggers who not only “talk” to the Gods, but suffer some delusions that They can be bothered talking back.

So, make up your own mind! But a word of caution … do NOT tell anyone you’ve arrived at your trading decisions because of imaginary lines made in the blackness of space by Neptune, Pluto and the North Node … or that you think the Gringos have been invaded by little, red Martians who dictate the path Pollyanna will take for the next month.

GeeZeus. Yuh know perfectly well the Marshuns hidden at Roswell are GREY!!!

Ciao – RA.

We now return you to your regular programming … where Blondes, Blonds and Other Bimbos who did NOT get their job by sleeping with ugly network executives ask Dubya-Bush questions of sleezy theeves who have absolutely NO interest in sucking-in the gullible to unload their worthless junk or trick them into unloading stocks they’re trying to buy.


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rash
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Sunday, April 10, 2011 - 11:17 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



The canaries are conflicted.

But y’all don’t peek into the fortune teller’s tent to hear birdsong. I know you only pop your head in for a quick fix of the spooky stuff, so let’s get to it.

The rise in the XJO has been unusually strong. During the rally, previous day lows have been broken only twice – both of them very marginal and the first of them a brief break of a small inside-day low. I said last week that the XJO had hit the timeframe for a 2nd degree countertrend and if the rise continued past Monday we were into something cyclical.

I also indicated that in strong, fast-rising trends it’s possible for markets to continue rising past the New Moon and into the First Quarter Moon, with the potential then for a decline into the Full Moon, which statistically is a low.

I was very doubtful that would happen. But, it did.

During strong upward trends, the Lunar phases become skewed and even the First Quarter-Full Moon phase isn’t guaranteed to decline.

The second bit of spooky stuff relates to Mercury Retrograde. From the viewpoint of the Earth, there are three or four times a year Mercury appears to go backwards in the sky. The current period started at the end of March and runs to April 22.

Now, Kaye Shinker, at astrologicalinvesting.com, maintains from her research on the Dow Industrials that it tends to end Mercury Rx periods within roughly 1% of where it started.

Other research indicates that markets which do NOT reverse the trend at the start of Mercury Rx, TEND to go into reverse midway through the period.

In a nutshell … we’re now heading into the Full Moon phase (Monday week) and since we didn’t stall the rally for a correction midway through, it may start now as we go into the midway of the Mercury Rx period.

***

Now, I want to get back to my canaries … and in a way, that’s related to Mercury Rx. Mercury was the wing-footed messenger of the Gods, known for playing tricks. A lot of astrologers warn against doing anything significant at all during Merc Rx periods. Eh! I’m not a big fan of sitting on yuh tushie doing nothing for a quarter of the year.

But, one thing that is relatively common during Mercury Rx periods is that computers go awry more often and technical indicators can give an unusual number of strange and misleading signals.

And that is exactly what we have!

Intramarket indices are all over the place … and so are intermarket ones.

And “something” is really off about all of this.

Despite the price of oil, the Dow Transports are streaking ahead; the DJI has been making higher Highs; so, too, have various small cap indices.

Let me first explain my canaries and then we’ll get to the charts. My favourite indicator is the CCI and I use a 6, 14, 20 and 50, usually configured on closing prices. The 50 is best for charting long-term moves.

NDX


1

The Nasdaq 100 took out its 2007 Highs weeks ago and was turned down from an "obvious" price Resistance level. What is interesting, though, is that the new highs have been made with very strong negative divergence on the 50 CCI.

As an indicator, the CCI is the canary in the coal mine ... it functions extremely well as an early warning indicator that the air is turning toxic.

***

XAO

2

The All Ords last week took out its February high and went within 10 points or so of beating the April 2010 high. It has regained the "slow channel" and it not only testing the middle line of the channel, but is trying to break back into the faster trend area defined by the cyan trendline.

XJO

3

In contrast, the XJO not only failed to take out the February high, but is way off taking out the high from a year ago. It, too, has regained the slow channel, but isn't even close to smooching the next line, which is lower than a "midway" marker.

However, I want to draw your attention to the peak on the 50 CCI, which has gone higher than it did in February, showing a clear case of positive divergence.

Now, this is completely at odds with the condition of the same indicator in the NDX.

SP500

4

It is also very clearly at odds with the same indicator applied to Pollyanna.

So, what we have here are warnings from the NDX and the 500 that the air is turning toxic ... but indications from the XAO and XJO that there are still potentially significant rises ahead in the Australian indices.

***

Even with help from the spooky stuff it is difficult to get a sure-thing read on where things are headed when there is such marked divergence between various world indices - and different indices within the same general market, like the USA.

Some weeks ago, I pointed out what may be a repeating megaphone pattern forming in the Australian indices and Rudy has been kind enough to update that chart in his Weekend Market Wrap. He has also posted the updated weekly planet charts for both Auntie and Pollyanna. If you're not a regular recipient of Wrudy's Wrap, I think you should hassle him with a private message and ask to be added to his PDF mailing list.

At this stage, I think the megaphone pattern is still very much in play for Auntie ... though I also think that this amount of Price, in this amount of Time, with barely a single daily low broken is ... just damn silly.

One final chart ... Auntie Inclines versus Declines during the range-trading period.



5

Auntie has now put on $464 since the Low in March ... that's close to the "average" of $461 and is actually the third-largest increase during the entire period.

The very fast 3RSI doesn't too much like the look of it and there is also some negative divergence in the 6 and 14 CCI ... EVEN THOUGH THERE IS TOTAL AGREEMENT from the 50 CCI.

Yes, again with the mixed technical signals! What is seems to mean is ... it actually is too far, too fast and does need to be retraced, at least a little, but that there will be more to come.

Okay, that's it. No, I'm not going to thrill you with any coloured spaghetti planet price charts. I know you're disappointed. But that's just what happens during Mercury Rx!! hehehehe


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gdd3
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Sunday, April 10, 2011 - 01:23 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just a great post and summary of 'where we are at', Rash...how can one follow that up with any worthwhile additions as I think you have covered it all very well!

Cheers

Dolphin


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rdumas
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Hi Folks,

The XJO has peaked so far at 4968.3 just a fraction above the 4967 Saturn line mentioned in my Market Wrap on the weekend.

Now to see if it decides to head south or beat all expectations and target the Neptune price line at 5104.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011 - 01:43 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



I'm not sure who to address my question to:

What does the broken saturn line (xjo) represent on the chart ?

What does the solid saturn (xjo) line represent on the chart ?


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rash
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Tuesday, April 12, 2011 - 06:12 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi, Hal!

I suppose the smart ahhhs answer is: they represent Saturn.

Or that they represent "target" zones of Support and Resistance likely to give at least temporary pauses, up or down, during intermediate moves.

But I suspect that's not what you mean. If one uses planet lines, as on the Daily All Planets, to see what line the index is riding in a rally ... then one also needs the reverse for declines.

So, the software creates a "mirror" of the various lines. Since they're personal charts, I have a habit of leaving the normal lines solid, but dashing the mirror lines. It's actually of more use on daily charts to see exact price crossing levels when two planets make an aspect ... but from habit I "dashed" the mirrors when I created Auntie's Weekly Planets.

2

Different indices respond over long periods to different planets ... but the same index will respond ALL the time to the same planets.

Auntie is a Neptune/Saturn index ... with Uranian input from time to time. The grey lines are Neptune, the cyan are Saturn; the orange are Uranus.

1

If you check the grey lines on this chart, you'll see why 5104 is virtually a sure-bet target before Auntie tops out in the megaphone currently in play.

Ciao - RA


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ehmu
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rash wrote on Tuesday, April 12, 2011 - 06:12 pm:

If one uses planet lines, as on the Daily All Planets, to see what line the index is riding in a rally ... then one also needs the reverse for declines.




Thank you very much for the answer.

And with the added extensive explanations, I declare a huge dividend as well.

H


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rash
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Saturday, April 16, 2011 - 05:49 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Greetings, gravy boobies!

I'm in the mood for a bit of a waffle; more oral than edible I'm afraid. Still, we all know the only reason you peek in the fortune teller's tent is because you want to see what strange and spooky stuff the Silly Old Bugger is up to this week.

So I'm going to waffle on about how I arrive at some of those weekly charts. In an apparent over-explanation to Hal the Elk Eater, I mentioned that different indices respond, over very long periods, to different planets ... but that the same index responds ALL the time to the same set of planets.

And I mentioned that Auntie, the XJO, is basically a Neptune gal, with Saturn and Uranian input.

Now, this next chart will be awful in quality. Nevermind, because it's just for a quick squizz anyway.

1

GeeZeus! It truly is awful. But, even with this bad quality, we can see constant thrusts and retests of the Neptune price lines ... including the 2007 peak at a first harmonic line, followed by a plunge way back to where it started its first breakout from a first harmonic line.

(Yes, I know I COULD improve the quality if I went to a white chart. BUT. They're personal charts; I prefer a black background when they're full screen; and I can't be bothered stuffing around making it easier for you!)

Anyway, as I said, this one's just for a quick squizz so you can see WHY the old bat is still trying for the overhead Neptunian which underlined that long and irritating 2006 consolidation.

Now we can zoom in and the quality will improve.

2

And there yuh go. The IC Forum software likes deep charts, not wide ones!

This is a monthly bars chart and includes ONLY the Neptune lines because they're the real rulers of Auntie's big moves ... as yuh can clearly see from the exact touches and bounces to and from hits to the Neptune lines.

And it's also pretty damn obvious what the old bat is TRYING to hit on the upside, nez pah?

With Pollyanna, it's the Node that's important. With the FTSE, it tends to be Pluto. But nevermind them; we're talking Auntie!

So, we start with the biggest picture first ... long-range monthly Neptunians.

Then, we scale down to a weekly bars chart - and throw in Saturn lines and Uranus lines because, having done a lot of research with the index, we know they work consistently to provide Support and Resistance targets for intermediate rallies and declines.

3

Now, it's true price bars overshoot and undershoot. But, when one works with these charts over time, they become very accurate target "zones". And there are MANY precise hits.

Couple of things while we have these up: monthly MACD suggests Auntie WILL hit the upside Neptune; weekly MACD is starting to show negative divergence, suggesting, at the moment, if and when she gets there (soon!), the old darling might faint away fast.

Now, occasionally I show a chart I call Auntie's All Planets.

4

I use these to help determine the Time component for those travels between the intermediate range planets (weekly) and long-range Neptunian moves ... because Price has a tendency to respond to the nearest inner planet price lines.

But that's all getting a bit complicated for Sunday waffles, eh?

Still, before I wander off, I might as well update you on the Inclines versus Declines weekly chart I first posted a few weeks back when we had a new bottom to play with.

(Bill, I know perfectly well how YOUR mind is reading that phrase and you're a very naughty boy!)

I suggested if we had a "normal" incline the target was 4877 and if it was an "average" rise, it would go to 4938.

What can I say ... too pessimistic!! hehe

Anyway, since this range-trading period began ... and especially this last leg from mid-2010 ... declines also tend to have a certain size.

6

Well, there yuh go. Some spooky stuff, a bit of techo and a few oscillators, some price targets to watch for.

And by the time you've digested my waffle, you'll be ready for Wrudy's Wrap.

Ciao and bon chance - RA


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ehmu
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Sunday, April 17, 2011 - 05:28 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Think I'm getting the rash, could be from eating all that Elk antler.

Thanks Randall for the waffle. Auntie, who's your daddy, Neptune!

Astro-boy rocks on.

Speaking of bottoms, my grandad proposed many a toast. "Heres a toast to your good health, you touch my top, I'll touch your bottom". Glass bottom of course.


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011 - 10:36 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Planetary Support Lines

As suggested in my Weekend Market Wrap, I anticipate that any down move will be short lived. The most likely target is the Neptune planetary line at 4798. Should this fail then the Saturn line at 4673 comes into play.

Note the positive divergence between the price action and LOI. Also recall the Conti cycle low date of the 21st April. All these indicators suggest to me that the bottom to the current decline is quickly approaching.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011 - 11:23 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hey Astro Boy

I am always on the look out for a good bottom - how did you know?

Rudy believes Aunty might be near hers, and we already know that the Elk Licker has his own preferences, but were is Polly!?

I noticed some inta-galatic blue lines in a sea of blackness running through one of your recent posts - is that Polly's destination?


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rash
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Hello Hal & Rudy ... and everyone else.

When in doubt, consult The Idiot and his canaries.

1

Firstly, there are no price bars on this chart ... merely the two moving averages which compile The Idiot and the 3 CCIs, set at 6 (green). 14 (red) and 50 (yellow).

Please note: (a) the extreme divergence in the two yellow CCI peaks between the mid-February price high and the mid-April price high; and (b) the clear divergence in the red canary peak at the recent high.

Negative divergence of this nature over a period of many weeks in the case of the 50 CCI will not be easily undone by some positive divergence in any oscillator on a 35 minute chart.

So, casting EVERYTHING else aside ... transits, wave counts, planetary price levels, hopes, wishes, dreams and calculations ... the word from The Idiot is: It ain't over; it won't BE over until at least the green canary gives at least one instance of positive divergence.

I point out, yet again, one would have to be a very self-honest genius to beat The Idiot.

Ciao - RA


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rash
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Tuesday, April 19, 2011 - 11:33 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hello, Bill.

Polly is in Wave 2 of Wave 5 to complete the Bull run. There is a weekly Neptune at 1289 and a primary Saturn at 1274. If c = a, Wave 2 will terminate somewhere between those two levels.

Personally, I'm looking at a 2-hour and 4-hour Idiot, watching for the canaries to sing if and when Price gets near those levels.

Ciao - RA


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billt
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thanks mate...


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rash
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Alternatively, the Bull is already dead.

I don't think so.

But, Miss Pollyanna's canaries have also been singing a warning song.

2


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rash
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I spent some time at the weekend explaining Auntie's Neptunian tendencies.

Today, she has made a precise hit. The question remains of whether she is merely stalling here, whether it's an interim bounce level, or whether she can form a firm bottom.

This is Auntie's All Planets chart and if she can hold this zone over the next couple of days, there are rising Sun and Venus lines which she could attach to for a ride north.

1


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rdumas
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Saturn Line here we come!!!

Well look at that. The LBB is sitting at 4673 which is where the Saturn line is sitting at present.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Hey, Rudy...

Either of these short-term counts on the XJO "sit" with you? The 'intra-wave' relationships are AOK as well!



Cheers
Dolphin


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rdumas
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Hi Dolphin,

The pattern that you have labelled sits well with the way I see things. We could use slightly different labelling but in the end the outcome would be the same. Looks like the Saturn line at 4673 is about the right target.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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gdd3
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Thanks Rudy...just realised I posted it in the wrong thread and was about to 'correct' that when your response came in.

I'm hoping my two targets are closer to the mark but am comfortable with Saturn line level and comfortable that from an EWC point of view that the move down from the 4976.4 high is almost certainly a corrective move(I just couldn't get comfortable with any possibility of the move so far as being "impulsive" or part-there-of....but of course this may be proven wrong!).

Dolphin


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rash
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Y'all shiverin' from a little frisson of excitement? Whipsaw! Whipsaw! Oh, puhleeze, don' whup me no mo', masser!

Seriously, dewds. Put BOTH of your hands back on the keyboard, ok?

Arien energy. Capiche? Raw, aggressive, strong, fast ... in BOTH directions. What? Did you think this spooky stuff wasn't real?!

Nevermind. True, Venus is entering Aries ... but the Sun is moving to Taurus. So calm down!

Remember ... large-range monthly bars while The Top is being made. Be quick on your feet to jump on the train ... and just as fast to get out of the way. Weeks ago. Nothing has changed.

Polly's daily bars against weekly levels (with extra Saturns and Mars and Mercury). Same old, same old.

1


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ehmu
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More on the influence of the moon.

I thought that this is quite a scientific study, with good comparisons between moon cycle trading (worse) and buy and hold strategy.


For short term traders, it confirms a short window for the bulls right around the new moon, and volatility just after the peak.

http://www.erhvervsastrologi.dk/artikler/Doesplanetarycycles.htm


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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XJO DAILY PLANETARY CHART


The chart below comes compliments of Randall and the comments are mine and are subject to corrections from Randall if incorrect.

Looking at the chart, it would appear that there is support from the Neptune line and the Uranus lines near the current price action. Should it fall through these lines then the next support comes from the rising Mars line. That dark blue line (unlabelled) is a Jupiter line.

The Sun/Earth lines are the overhead resistance but unfortunately there are no planetary lines there to provide the lift (other than perhaps some hot air ). That would appear to suggest that the index may either hang around in this congestion zone or drop down a little further to the Mars line for a lift to higher levels.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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Sunday, May 01, 2011 - 01:02 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Back at the beginning of the year, I sent a note to Rudy and our desert-dwelling Canadian compatriot, El Bazza, containing a rough hand-drawn chart ... a top in January/February, a decline into March, a rally into May/June.

So far, for the most part, things are going exactly that way.

We all get hung up too often on too much detail. Having said that, I'll come back to a bit of detail - not much - in a moment.

Thanks to Hal for the link to Bill Meridian's article on Lunar Phase trading. I chat occasionally about the LoonyToons and emphasise that New Moons are statistically Highs and Full Moons, statistically, are Lows ... and remind y'all that there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

And thanks, too, to Rudy for posting my Auntie All Planets chart which shows the old bat has, for the umpteenth time, returned to a Neptunian/Uranian price congestion zone she doesn't seem to be able to stay away from for more than a week or two.

Okay ... so the general roadmap was High in January/February, decline into March, rise into May/June.

I've chatted about large-range monthly bars while the indices go into a topping process; I discussed how Jupiter moving from mid-Aries to mid-Taurus would impact on commodities and give a lift to financials; and I waffled about markets making a high with Jupiter in early Aries, then a decline, followed by a further high as it moved from late Aries into early Taurus ... and that happens in early June.

I've talked about the fast, raw, aggressive moves with so many planets in Aries.

So, over the next few weeks, the astro energy will begin to shift from Arien to Taurean. Taurus is the first and most basic of the Earth signs; it's concerned with practicality, value and REALITY.

The shift will be on from midway through the month. But, we're NOT there yet. Mars will be the first to move from Aries to Taurus ... on May 11.

This weekend it has conjuncted Jupiter in Aries, which is a peak of optimistic Fire energy. However, there are two more Jupiter conjunctions to come ... from Mercury and, especially, Venus. According to my interpretation of the astro energy, The Peak is not quite there yet.

The coming week's New Moon will be in Taurus, so we will START to see a shift.

We'll have new monthly bars to play with in the next few days, but now that April is finished, let's revisit Miss Pollyanna's Mars Bars chart.



a

Having closed out March at 1325, the index managed to finish April a little ahead of the 1350 Mars crossing zone.

We'll leave closer analysis of the implications for May/June until we get a new bar ... but a quick and dirty calculation indicates about 1411 as the likely Marshun upside. You'll notice because it's a thick dotted line coming down that it's a first harmonic line, or, in briefspeak, it should be major Resistance.

Ciao - RA


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rdumas
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 11:31 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



XJO Today

Well it looks like we have made it down to the dashed Uranus line so far (see yellow arrow on chart below). It could be that we get a bit of a bounce off this level as we have had a 5 wave move down from the 4930.6 level and the 5th wave has been of similar length to the 1st wave.





I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rash
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In KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid) terms, it does look like it might be a pretty straight ABC correction off the recent high.

You're right, Rudy ... Auntie has broken and recovered the lower Uranus level of the Uranus/Neptune congestion zone which has been in play so very often over the past 18 months.

There may be a small amount of positive divergence in the state of the CCIs ... though, we won't get a clear indication of that for perhaps another day.

We do have some gaps below the current price ... and I'd like to see a precise hit (and then follow through to the upside) from a rising planetary line, rather than jiggy-jiggying around within the Neptune/Uranus zone.

Monday


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rash
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 01:22 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



A brief word about LoonyToons ... lunar phase trading.

During the Bull run into the 2007 top, it was NOT profitable to Short the New Moon-Full Moon phase.

In the current Bullish run, since March, 2009, it HAS been profitable to Short the New Moon-Full Moon phase, but it has NOT been profitable to Short the New Moon-First Quarter phase.

That, of course, is over the entire period. Some NM-FM Shorts have been spectacularly profitable. However, the stats show the MOST likely time to make a profit from Shorts is the 1Q-FM ... ie, the 7 trading days going into the Full Moon.

***

I just mention it because the New Moon comes after the close tomorrow ... but there is some history within the March 09-to-Now period, of the market continuing to rise for another week after the NM.

It looks like, at a casual glance, we're in the process of completing a straight ABC off the April 11 high. Today marks 12 trading days, which is the maximum length of a 2nd degree countertrend.

The next day or two should tell the story. If there's no further significant price weakness, Auntie may resume the recent uptrend. Of course, if the price drops continue, we're past 2nd degree countertrend timing and into something cyclical, which suggests a minimum run down of 22 days.


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rash
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Monday, May 02, 2011 - 01:42 pm:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



LoonyToons for the past few Moonths

NM

New Moons are marked in red with a downward arrow, because NMs are, statistically, Highs and the implied direction is then down into the Full Moon, which is marked in green with an upward arrow (because the implied direction is then up into the next NM). First Quarter Moons are purple with a down arrow (into the Full Moon) and Third Quarter Moons are cyan, with an upward arrow (rising into the New Moon).

The 1Q-FM Shorts (purple to green) usually work; the 3Q-NM Longs (cyan to red) usually work.

Shorting the NM-1Q is a bit iffy, though cues about probable direction can be gained from the state of the oscillator.


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ehmu
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rash wrote on Monday, May 02, 2011 - 01:22 pm:

which suggests a minimum run down of 22 days




Now she is under Uranus. This could be a problem to rise in this situation.


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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ehmu
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rash wrote on Monday, May 02, 2011 - 01:42 pm:

Shorting the NM-1Q is a bit iffy




a hair lower on the price, and she's headed south in a hurry, hanging by a thread ATM


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Hi Folks,

In my Weekend Market Wrap I mention this post containing the XJO daily planetary chart showing the current price action bounded by the Mars and Jupiter planetary lines. The chart comes compliments of Randall.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Hey Astro

Just visiting the tent for some crystal ball stuff...


Andrew has his turning dates according to his motorcycle count work for either 2nd & 13th June....give or take. I think he leans to the 13th...


What is old Polly doing around those dates? 1411 was your earlier shot - any updates for us mere earthlings?

no rush...


bill


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billt
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hi Randall,

Rudy's Weekend Monster Wrap included your charts on Polly which suggests the spooky levels sit at 1365, 1379, & 1411.

1379 sits at the intersection of the trend lines and at Andrew's end date...

1365 is a possible 'failed 5th' target....1411 if Polly gets excited, and is just above the 'w5<w3' targets.

Interested to get news from 'within the tent', as to where the more probable target might be...?


bill


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rash
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Oh, tsk*

Soooo impatient. I haven't read Wrudy's Wrap yet.

And everything I have to say is a click away.
application/pdf1
earthlings.pdf (366.2 k)



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billt
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....come on, keep up....

Just rub the glass ball and tell us what you see - it can't be that hard!


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rash
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No, no, no ... there'll be no more rubbing of balls or polishing of orbs this weekend.

GeeZeus, Billy, couldn't y'tell from the PDF ... we don't do "happy endings" here!


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ehmu
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June Full Moon--Sydney June16 06:13:36am---+full lunar eclipse.

http://www.fullmoon.info/en/fullmoon-calendar.html







_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Hi Hal,

Very interesting charts. It's not clear to me exactly what they represent. Could you please explain how say the Full Moon annualised return is calculated for any index?


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Hi Hal,

Don't worry about answering that question as I believe that I may have located the research that led to the data represented in those charts. What is interesting is that it is quite similar to the research that Randall initiated some time back which led to our Loony Tune analysis methodology.

http://www.valentino-salvato.com/Astrology/pdf/Are_Investors_Moonstruck.pdf

There is further information on the following website.


http://www.davidmcminn.com/pages/refs.htm

Thanks for bringing the information to our attention. It's heartening to know that there are other Lunatics out there.

(Message edited by rdumas on June 08, 2011)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Here it is:

http://www.fep.up.pt/disciplinas/ce726/Lunar%20Cycles.pdf


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Thanks Hal.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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Study: Buy and hold outperforms lunar cycle trading

http://www.erhvervsastrologi.dk/artikler/Doesplanetarycycles.htm

4. Summary of Findings
The study indicates that there is, on average, an upmove in the DJIA commencing in the days prior to the new moon and ending about 6 to 7 days afterward. The breakdown of the cycle by decade demonstrates this as does the Guarino study. In addition, the buy-and-sell tests show that buying the lows outperforms buying the highs. Whereas the 'batting average' of profitable trades did not decrease when the highs were used as buy points, the magnitude of the profits shrank while the magnitude of the losses grew.

This cycle is too weak to be relied upon solely as a trading timer. The buy-and-sell study shows that such a strategy does not keep pace with a simple buy-and-hold strategy. Only 54% of the purchases timed by the cycle were profitable. This percentage is approximately in line with the percentage of rising days (52%) in the DJIA as calculated by Arthur Merrill. The two percentages are not comparable on an apples-for-apples basis, but the scant excess of the cycle-generated trades over 52% does not seem encouraging. Methods designed to enhance the returns did not succeed. The addition of technical oscillators as a confirming mechanism did not improve the results, nor did selling cycle highs or confirming buys with the annual cycle. Traders who are tempted by the sale of such trading systems are advised to think twice before purchasing any system based upon this one cycle. These findings should not discourage further attempts to link price series cycles to phenomena outside of the marketplace.

OEX traders with short-term time horizons who rely upon cycles may wish to take note of certain findings. By itself, the lunar cycle does not outperform. But the DJIA does demonstrate more upside volatility from the phase prior to the new moon to the phase immediately after. There also is a slight tendency for the DJIA to show more downside volatility after the cycle peak. This may be useful knowledge to shorter-term players who employ leverage.


When I view their charts, 1930-40 DJIA analysis for example, versus the long term DJIA price chart it occurs to me that the influence of the moon cycles may be very different in bear markets than the influence is during bull markets.

I can't tell for sure, because their segments don't exactly match bull/bear swings, however it looks like the affects may be opposite for the opposing trends.

If this is true then their summary conclusion that buy and hold outperforms cycle trading would be an incorrect conclusion. I'll be watching for inverse correlation during this serious downdraft for example.

20110610;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on,h ttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#chart6:symbol=^dji;range=19 300401,20110610;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logsca le=on


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rdumas
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Hi Hal,

Randall, Barry and I have done an in depth study of the Moon cycles since 2000 to the present day for both the S&P500 and the XJO and I can assure you that using the Moon cycles in isolation as a trading system is far more profitable than using buy and hold strategies. When used in conjunction with the Idiot it is even more so.

Your thoughts about the use of Moon cycles in bull/bear/sideways market is correct and Randall has just finished writing a book that he is about to publish online. This book includes a complete section on the Moon cycle methodology and deals with the subject of trading in different market conditions using this methodology. It also provides all of the detailed results of our analysis for each Moon cycle.

Knowing Randall as you do, it is like no other trading book that you will ever see covering many of the topics discussed on this thread but in far more detail.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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ehmu
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I wait patiently for the invitation to the feast.


_____ n a m a s t e

These musings are not a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.


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rash
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Hi, Rudy, Hal ... and other occasional peekers.

Sometime in the next week, I will establish a special page on my own new website where I will post the material I have previously put in the fortune teller's tent - including the Mars Bars, weekly planets charts, and forecasts about transits which were featured here or in Rudy's Wrap.

I won't test Colin's patience by promoting the website here ... though I would like to record my thanks to both Colin and Rob. I've always found them to be eminently helpful ... and I have no hesitation in promoting IC, the software or the forum, at my site. IC is the best value-for-money software anywhere - and the Forum is a rich resource of skill.

I'll keep up with the goss in Rudy's threads, of course. And I hope the rest of you will check into the new tent every so often for your quiet peek at "the spooky stuff".

Warm regards to all - Randall


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starboard_tack
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Hi Randall,

Congratulations on your new site. Having gained so much from the Fortune Tellers Tent I await the release of your book with baited breath. Please keep us posted on it's entry to the world.

Many thanks for all your wisdom,
Starb'd


"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

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billt
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hey 'Carney Man in the Tent'


I do hope you realise that 'Astro Boy' & 'Spooky Stuff' are trademarked!

Can't wait to read all your nonsense Randall, sounds like it will be a winner. I just hope the front cover doesn't feature the G4 doing 'full moons'...much too much for this bipolar to bear.


bill


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rash
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Peter ... thanks for the comments. Much appreciated.

Billy ... new tent -

www.theidiotandthemoon.com/eyeofra.html


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ehmu
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The attached image is what the moon looks like from the Canadian Rocky Mountain Moose pastures, Mountain standard time.

The moon will be exactly 50% some time around midnight. This is where the vector sum of gravitational influence from the Sun and Moon start to subtract from each other. At around midnight (2am New York Time) the earth will begin to find its way in between the sun and the moon.

It will be interesting to notice if there is a shift in mood tomorrow July 8 in the North American markets. The shift could be subtle at first, but will be toward dispair and away from exuberance. The new moon is the time for celebration, and the full moon is the time when we are most burdened.




_____ n a m a s t e


___________________________________________________________________________

Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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rash
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Friday, July 08, 2011 - 11:51 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Very pretty ... even through big moon moose eyes.

Psychologically. We have a tendency to identify with the Sun.

Astrologically: It tends to mean we (males especially)identify more with our Solar selves, the outward projection of Ego, which I don't use in any pejorative sense at all.

At the time of the New Moon, the Moon and Sun are aligned ... our outer selves and inner selves are pulling in the same direction, to use the gravitational analogy.

So, at this time, the outer and inner influences are melded and it is a good time to start something new (because there is no inner tension pulling us in different directions).

During the Full Moon, the Sun and Moon are opposed to each other. The "light" shines brightly on our innermost selves.

The result depends ... on whether we like what is exposed. For some, the daemons are highlighted; for others, the angels.

In terms of Earthly manifestations - and the effect on stock markets - the Moods of the Moon change according to the symbolism of the signs. And is why Moon trading signals can sometimes invert. That is, there are times when the New Moon is a Low, rather than a temporary high; and times when the Full Moon occurs near a temporary High, rather than a low.

The Full Moon is not, necessarily, a time of burden - either personally or in stock movements. It can be so; is often so. But, not always. A personal Full Moon can be a time of rich reward, materially or spiritually; the culmination, the "harvest", of a period of growth.

While there are certain "statistical" observations that have a tendency to hold true-to-form, over time, there are also times when the statistical pattern inverts.

It's a strange, strange world we live in ... and the adventure is in the journey, not the arrival.

Ciao - RA


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ehmu
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Dear Randall:

I appreciate your gentle expansion of the truth about the moon's influence inverting on many occasions, instances where the Full Moon seems to produce a price high in the markets rather than a low.

I wouldn't want anyone to think that using the moon cycles for trading is as simple as buying the full moon and selling the new moon. As you point out in your book, there is some not so obvious hidden knowledge that needs to explained.



On a different subject, what you just mentioned about the New Moon.


rash wrote on Friday, July 08, 2011 - 11:51 am:

So, at this time, the outer and inner influences are melded and it is a good time to start something new (because there is no inner tension pulling us in different directions).




Regarding the fact that the majority of market players lose money, I want to mention that I think one of the reasons for this relates psychologically to the influence of the new moon phase that you described above in the attached quote.

The confident feeling of starting something new is not consistent with relinquishing a successful investment whose price has been going up (and may or may not be cresting). So the time that we should be taking profits seems like the worst possible time to let it go.

During the periods where our equity prices are doing well, the pleasure is extreme and we tend to hang on to it in order to extend that pleasure.

And when price is making new lows, we are pain averse and refuse to buy anew the collective anguish that is prevalent in the markets at that time.

These are a couple of the basic reasons that many investors buy high and sell low.

This is where I believe that your map "Moods of the Moon" can help us navigate the rocky shoals (counterintuitive emotional moods presented by the markets) that prevent most people from making correct decisions about their money in the markets.


_____ n a m a s t e


___________________________________________________________________________

Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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ehmu
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A very handy link, no matter where you live.

sun-rise, moon-rise, times around the world, etc.

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/astronomy.html?n=240&month=7&year=2011&obj =moon&afl=-11&day=1


_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goodies, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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rdumas
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SPX ready to bounce???

Is the US about to orchestrate a bounce off the March 2009 rally trend line? My cycles study suggest that it is a possibility.






A bounce to the descending overhead red trend line is possible. That would coincide with a move to the North T Node line (orange) shown on Randall's weekly planetary chart. No doubt the overhead Saturn lines (blue) might have something to say about that on the way up.





The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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Hi Rudy:

I sure hope that your bounce theory works out, because I didn't jump in to the downdraft last week. I didn't expect it to be so harsh, and the uncertainty of next week kept me from chasing.

I say I hope so, because I would like a second chance to get in short at a higher price.

The spx chart that I have attached has what looks more like a flag pattern to me, that could easily free fall from here. I also note something strange (to me) that the falling peaks occur on the 1/4 moons. W%R on the McLellan looks like it isn't really done going down quite yet.

Randall mentioned two things in his weekly update which I don't really know how to include in my considerations. That there is crash potential around the 10th, and that we could expect a surprise in the interim. The first quarter moon occurs on August6 (sat), so if the rhythm continued within the flag, that could mean a peak on monday 8th.









_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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rdumas
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Hi Hal,

I have to admit that I am not longer interested in playing the whipsaws so I will just stand back and watch the action. In my view, this is no time to invest super funds. I will wait for the longer term trends to come into play. As I said in previous posts, whilst we may get a reasonable bounce in my view it will be a counter trend to the main trend which I believe will be down for a very long time.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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ehmu
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Monday, August 01, 2011 - 11:14 am:Copy highlighted text to 'New Message' boxEdit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Rudy:

Appreciate your views. In my limited time with IC, I don't remember any mistaken calls on your part. In case my point is not clear, you appear to be a guiding light for anyone that cares to listen and follow up on your sense of where things are going.

My sentiment regarding the treachery in playing the whip saw is the same as yours.

I do have a very conservative and modest involvement though (like 10%). I want to maintain my skills, it would be very easy for me just to trade term deposits instead of this noise. This pickle has been very challenging.

My understanding is that during stage 2 and stage 4 (rallies and break downs), that Elliot wave has a much better chance of repeatable insights. I'm looking forward to the next trend.

thanks again

H


_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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rdumas
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Hi Hal,

Thank you for your kind words......... they are much appreciated. It should be a pretty exciting time for the markets in the coming few weeks before things settle down in some consistent direction.


The views expressed in this post are purely mine and may not necessarily line up with reality - Rudy

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billt
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SUBSIDING STORM:

A Tough Week on Wall Street - and a CME Strike!

Earth's magnetic field is still reverberating from a CME strike on August 5th that sparked one of the strongest geomagnetic storms in years. Registering 8 on the 0 to 9 "K-index" scale of magnetic disturbances, the storm at maximum sparked auroras across Europe and in many northern-tier US states.

Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say the combined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7 hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major.

Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up two earlier CMEs already en route.


Another week of back wash before it clears, just in time for a 'moon low' ....

Spooky Stuff!







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ehmu
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BErnanke speech, Jackson hole Friday August 26.

New moon, Sunday August 28. Monday morning, the sun and the moon will be rising together vector summing the gravity of their celestial influence.







_____ n a m a s t e


Every trade involves a gorgeous seller with goods, and an ugly buyer with money.


Not a recommendation to buy or sell equities

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