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Trade Trends with Bollonger Bands and Twiggs Money Flow

Archive through July 27, 2010

Chart Forum » Hilarius' Hall Of Fame » Elliott Wave Watching » Archive through July 27, 2010

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rdumas
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Post Number: 3636
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Saturday, July 17, 2010 - 03:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Thanks Max, much appreciated.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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market_mad
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Saturday, July 17, 2010 - 09:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hey Rudy,

Sorry I haven't been able to post much of late.
Here's the latest from EW Int;

The stock market has started the next phase of decline. This leg should be a third wave at several degrees of trend, which means it will be persistent as it draws prices lower in the coming weeks. This week's highs should not be exceeded or the near-term wave structure will need to be reassessed.

Even though the DJIA managed three up closes out of five days this week, the past two days of decline were strong enough so that the index ended the entire week down (about 1%). The S&P 500 was down 1.21% for the week, with the NASDAQ off .79%. In fact, the weekly decline was broad-based, as the secondary indexes as well as the mid-caps closed lower too.

Wave ii (circle) up from the July 1-2 lows ended Tuesday (Jul. 13) at the 10,407.80 high in the DJIA and 1099.46 high in the S&P. The Dow retraced 81% of wave i (circle), while the S&P retraced 74% of the same. The 9-day rally (OEX) kept intact to a degree the 8-9 day recurring market "rhythm" that we discussed in the previous Update. These types of patterns have a way of quickly disappearing and the ragged turn down since Tuesday — the Dow topped on Tuesday, the NASDAQ on Wednesday and the OEX on Thursday — may be a hint that it's time to push aside this particular pattern. We'll see with the next supposed turn, which is July 23-27.

The rally that recently ended is a good example of how difficult second-wave retracements can be at times to forecast, particularly in bear markets since some portion of the countertrend rise is fueled by short covering, which can result in a steep ascent. A lot of readers were absolutely certain that the market's main indexes were headed above the June 21 highs, and even higher into August. Leaning against the prevailing sentiment can be difficult at times, but it is something that a wave practitioner gets used to quickly. That certainly does not guarantee one's success, but it helps to recognize emotional extremes when forecasting an impending trend change. And in fairness, there are still alternate potentials, albeit waning, that allow for a market recovery that carries above 10,600 (1132 in the S&P) prior to the start of the next big down phase of the bear market. The odds however, continue to favor the wave count that we've consistently showed over the past month or so in these pages.

One thing to keep in mind is our discussion from the June issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, of the differing characteristics that attend a bear-market rally (see p. 3 of that issue). Some of the strongest up days in a bear-market bounce occur near the end of the move. It's the "hook" that keeps investors "hoping" that a new bull phase is underway. This behavior appears to have manifest with Minute wave ii (circle), which ended this week. The July 13 surge (Tuesday), which resulted in a 90% upside day (i.e., big upside breadth and upside volume), marked the final "gotta own them" day of the bear-market rally, much like the June 21 high (Minor wave 2) and the May 10 spike, which led to a near-term high 2½ trading days later. The market fell persistently to new lows after the previous near-term highs. It should do so now too.

Wave iii (circle) of Minor wave 3 is starting and the downside potential is large. This wave down should not be complete before the S&P declines into the 850-900 area, with even lower potential depending upon the wave structure and technical strength of the selloff. The Dow's downside range is wider at 8200-8775, but we should be able to narrow that considerably as the pattern continues to unfold. My guess now is that the lower end of this span will be a stronger target than the upper end. We'll update you as we see new evidence emerge.

Whenever the market decides to bounce near term, we'll try to identify the end of the rise, which will likely be an opportunity for the bears. At the moment, it would take a rally that carries above the recent highs this week in order to indicate that a second wave upward correction was not yet complete.

Cheers
MM







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mastersl46
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Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 04:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Everybody!!
Great analysis & information everybody inputs, it's good to see people sharing ideas.
Wouldn't everyone agree that a downward trendline that has been formed from the top of April 15, intersecting the June 21 high & the July 15 high be a clear indication of the direction of the market?
As long as this trendline stays in tact, then it is highly likely that we are to see more 3 , 4 & 5th waves being carried out in a downward direction until this trendline is broken. This line also creates a channel with a descending trendline touching the lows of May 21. There is a similar trendline & channel on the S&P 500 & Dow.
The wave count of the S&P looks quite simply being a Wave 1 to June 8 & an A,B,C correction to July 15.
It looks as though the ASX 200 is ahead of the S&P in the wave count as it looks the ASX 200 has already done a Wave 1 & 2 of the 3rd.
This is to Rudy - Hi Rudy!! , Marcus had a major crash signal at July 21, with the next turning point being August 2nd for the S&P. The dates for the ASX 200 were wrong before but the S&P are still on the ball. Does your guru see anything happen on August 2 ?
Looking at the market now it just looks highly likely that this will occur. (Probably taking us to lows of 9000 - 9300 for the Dow Jones) = Bottom of channel created by trendlines from April 26 - July 15.

So everybody this is what could happen -
Dow = 9000 - 9300 (Wave 1 of 3) , ASX 200 = 3750 - 3900 (Wave 3 of 3) by August 2. Low could be created at the close of July 30. (in 2 weeks)
WITH A MAJOR CRASH HAPPENING ON THE NIGHT OF JULY 20 or 21!! (this tuesday or Wednesday night !!)
Looking forward to see if this prediction is anywhere near the reality!
Happy to hear any comments & opinions on what is written here.
All the best


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rdumas
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Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 09:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi MM,

No apologies necessary mate. I always eagerly await your posts as I don't have access to EWI's S&P500 thoughts other than through other websites that have similar views to that organisation.

Whilst I mainly follow the XJO rather than the SPX, the wave patterns are not too dissimilar.

I would agree that there is every likelihood that the 13th July (my birthday ) completed Minute wave circle ii in their wave count and that Minute wave circle iii of Minor wave 3 is underway. This is what they are referring to when they say that the third wave of several degrees of trend is occurring. This part of a cycle where multiple levels of wave 3 are occurring will always bring about significant falls in a short period of time.

This is not to say that their wave count is correct because a similar effect would be occurring in the other potential wave counts that I have been referring to in my posts on this thread. There is still a possibility that wave circle ii has not yet completed but the odds favour that it has. Any extension to the wave circle ii would only delay the inevitable.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 10:25 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Masterclass,

Welcome aboard. Great to have you adding to our 'think tank' of contributors. I agree with you that there is a strong trend channel heading in the downward direction at this stage and until that is broken on the upside, the news is not good.




Not sure which guru you are referring to Masterclass as I have 3 specialists in my team, each one with guru status in my mind. Andrew is somewhere on one of the Greek islands at this stage, Barry is lying low in Mexico no doubt keeping out of sight of the drug lords over there and Randall my Astro chart specialist reckons there are some really bearish planetary alignments coming in the near future. The worst of these will occur in late July/early August which is why I have been constantly posting on this thread that some major down moves will occur in this time frame.

The planetary transits don't appear to be bad during the period around the 21st July as you suggest. I obviously can't agree that the low will occur on the 30th July when we are expecting the start of a dramatic fall in that time period. I should stress though that the time parameter of technical analysis is the most difficult to master so I tend to focus to a large degree on pattern to guide my analysis.

In my preferred scenario I have us in the early stages of Minor wave C as shown in the chart/drawing below.



Now as I believe we have only just started that Minor level wave I believe that we are only in Minute wave circle i of that wave. That means that whilst the move we will see on Monday will be quite large, it will be nothing compared to Minute wave circle iii when it appears on the scene. At present I expect that to occur sometime around late July/early August in line with Randall's predictions.

To me that provides a confluence with pattern and Randall's Astro thoughts. For those who are following my posts on the EW count side of things, the thing that we have to very careful of in our analysis is the level of waves that we will be seeing in the coming time period. The reason for this is that even though in my scenario we are starting Minute wave circle i what we can't be exactly sure of early in the piece is whether we are seeing its formation or the formation of the wave at the next level down, ie the Minuette wave. This would be the case if the Minute level wave pattern turns into a very large move.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 03:22 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Complex Corrective Wave Patterns

Corrective waves always occur during a trending market. Their role is to move in the opposite direction to the trend of the larger level pattern. We have already seen the power of an impulse wave with its large ranges and relatively simple wave patterns. This is because the impulsive move is working 'with the current' of the higher level pattern.

Corrective patterns tend to be more complex and struggling because they are operating 'against the flow of the current'.

There are times when the market will throw up more than one corrective wave within a single level of pattern. Complex corrective waves are corrective patterns occurring at the same level and not merely subwaves showing up within a larger pattern.

Double Zigzag Corrective Patterns

One of the more common complex waves is a Double Zigzag corrective wave pattern. They look like the following diagram.



Note that the labelling of these waves is W,X,Y. That WXY labelling is at the same level as the preceeding wave pattern. It is called a Double Zigzag because there are a total of two Zigzag patterns that are joined together by another corrective wave pattern. Note that there is no reason why that connecting corrective wave pattern to be another Zigzag.

Triple Zigzag Corrective Patterns

On other occasions (but not as often) we will get another even more complex pattern which is called a Triple Zigzag corrective pattern. It looks like the following diagram.



Note that for these patterns the labelling becomes W,X,Y,XX,Z. Once again that WXYXXZ labelling is at the same level as the previous wave pattern. It should also be noted that what we have is a 5 wave corrective pattern.

There are times when complex 5 wave corrective patterns are confused with Impulse waves because of the number of waves in the pattern. So, always remember that not all 5 wave patterns are Impulse patterns. They at times can look very much like an Impulse wave but their internal structure is different.

The internal structure of an Impulse wave is 5-Cor-5-Cor-5 whereas the internal structure of a 5 wave corrective pattern is Cor-Cor-Cor-Cor-Cor.

Note that the largest complex corrective pattern that can be generated in the market is a Triple Corrective wave pattern so when you see that structure, you will know that the corrective pattern is coming to an end.

Other Complex Corrective Patterns

Other complex corrective patterns exist as well as those mentioned above. As the range of these depend on the patterns involved they are simply called a Double 3 or a Triple 3. It is a bit of a misnaming because as one of the possible patterns that can make up this pattern is a triangle (which is a 5 wave rather than a 3 wave pattern) it should probably be called a Double or Triple Corrective pattern.

Examples of Double 3 corrective patterns are shown in the diagram below.



Having seen the examples given above of the Double and Triple Zigzags and the Double 3 I will leave it up to the reader to work out what Triple 3 would look like.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 03:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



For those readers keeping a written record of my EWW course material the following attachment covers the material on the complex corrective wave patterns.

application/pdf
elliott wave watching part 3 rev 1.pdf (190.1 k)



I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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starboard_tack
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Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 06:39 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Rudy, et al

I have just returned home for a few weeks, and would like to add my profound thanks for all the effort that has gone in to this, and the ODB thread. I have been able to touch base with them both enough to keep tabs on the state of play.

Rudy, your exceptional effort is very much appreciated.

I know that you are not a fan of Anthony Caldaro's Objective Elliott Wave site, but I thought that I would give his perspective of the SPX as maybe another scenario. I have to say that his chart does not sit well with me also, but I think it is worth keeping it on the table.

He sees that we completed a Super Cycle bull market wave 1 in 2007, and Super Cycle 2 in March 09, He therefore puts us in the early stages of Super Cycle wave 3 BULL MARKET!

His latest chart follows - any comments?

First, the weekly view:
OEW weekly

Now the daily:
OEW daily


"The pessimist complains about the wind;
The optimist expects it to change;
The realist adjusts the sails."

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rdumas
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Sunday, July 18, 2010 - 06:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi starboard_tack,

Great to hear from you after such a long time. Yes I am familiar with the work of Anthony Caldaro's with his OEW analysis. His is one of the sites that I look at frequently since Dolphin mentioned him to me.

As you say I have a problem with his wave count as he believes that the move from March 2009 is an impulse move ushering in the next bull market. In my view his count went wrong when he labeled the first rally in March 2009 as a wave 1 when it is clearly not an impulse wave or a leading diagonal. He is a very good analyst however so I haven't totally discounted his wave count. He is one of the few bullish EW analysts in the world today so it is worthwhile keeping an eye on what he has to say to balance one's views.

I do attempt to keep an eye on various alternate views just to make sure that I don't miss anything.

Anthony's EW count will be under a lot of pressure if the March 2009 low gets taken out in the next 12 months or so as Prechter believes will happen.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, July 19, 2010 - 09:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Thanks for completing 'Complex Corrective Wave Patterns'.

I have no questions from either your Market Wrap or your Complex Correctives to pester you with! (not even any 'stupid' questions from a 'newbie'!) Sorry mate - I'm letting you down/off this week.

I have been searching for a EW count on POG (XAUUSD) without success. Is there a consensus view on the POG count within EW circles? I recall that the 18 June high may have begun wave 4 - any thoughts?


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rdumas
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Monday, July 19, 2010 - 11:41 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I'm a bit pressed for time at the moment but will get back to you when I can free up some.

I hope the section on complex waves made sense because it does cause a lot of confusion for many people.


Cheers


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, July 19, 2010 - 12:15 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



An Interesting Link

Hi Folks,

The following is an interesting link : http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21166.html

The main article provides an interesting argument for being bullish in the coming months once the current correction completes.

At the top of the page you'll find an advertisement from Robert Prechter for a free 10 page download of a Market Forecast for 2010 to 2016. In it you will find his reason for being wrong when he suggested the top of the market in August/September and again in November 2009. Readers of my market wrap will remember that we disagreed with his call at the time. I do admit however that it is very easy to getting 'timing' of tops and bottoms wrong so I am not really being critical about his calls.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, July 19, 2010 - 02:01 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible EW Count for POG

Hi Bill,

You asked for an EW count for POG on the ODB thread but being EW stuff I thought I would respond to your query here. I give no guarantees as the pattern is pretty ragged but the following is one possibility.



One thing that I have been saying for months now is that based on a Head and Shoulders pattern for POG I have a target of around $1320~$1350. Unlike many other stocks, commodities can often have a 5th wave which is the largest wave in an impulse pattern.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, July 19, 2010 - 02:32 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Possible EW Count for ETF GOLD

Hi Bill,

Again no guarantees but this is what I see could happen for ETF GOLD. I would expect wave 4 to terminate in late July/early August. I will be very tempted to re-enter that ETF at that time. By that time I would be expecting not only the POG to be rallying but the AUD to be dropping in unison with the markets.





Note that if the move down from the peak at $150 is a Zigzag then the possible low for wave 4 could be $132.49 based on wave equality. That may be a good level at which to consider a re-entry for me.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, July 19, 2010 - 02:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



thanks Rudy on the POG EW,

Perhaps we are close to a completion of the abc of wave 4, and the commencement of wave 5?

a - 21 May
b - 21 June
c - 16 July

Bill


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billt
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Monday, July 19, 2010 - 03:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Just caught your post 3648 after my last post 13.

Looking at POG and the ETF, the start of wave 5 will more than likely be triggered by the stock market collapse. If we are in Scenario 1 & 2 and the top is in, perhaps wave 4 completed for POG & the ETF on 6/7 July.

If we do see a stock market rally as you suggest in Scenario 3 then wave 4 might need a few weeks to complete - as you suggest.

I am already set on my ETF - bought in recently...If Scenario 3 eventuates, I might sell out and buy back in later.

Wave 5 should be a +20% play, with POG & AUD both contributing.

thanks again for your EW work mate - it helps clarifies my thoughts.


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rdumas
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Monday, July 19, 2010 - 03:37 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

You may be misinterpreting what I'm saying about a stock market rally for scenario 3. This multi-month rally would not start until Minor wave C and Intermediate wave (B) completes and that won't be for a number of week's or even months. It really depends on how large that pattern becomes.

Remember what I said in my Market Wrap. I believe that we are only in a wave 1 of that Minor wave C and I believe that we will have a market crash scenario in late July/early August with wave 3 of Minor wave C. I don't expect Minor wave C to complete until September/October sometime. Do you understand what I am saying?

Whilst we may/may not have completed wave 4 of ETF GOLD, the best move will occur once that wave 3 of Minor wave C on the XJO occurs because that will be the big one for this part of the cycle due to the combination of a rising POG and falling AUD.

All three scenarios will be heading south for a while. The only difference is scenario 3 will stop after it's Minor wave C is completed and head north whereas the others to varying degrees will continue heading south.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Monday, July 19, 2010 - 05:07 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Received and understood - I think!

"For scenario 3 the apparent impulse wave that has formed should mark the end of Minute wave c and Minor wave B unless the impulse wave extends."

What I didn't appreciate from your Market Wrap was that your suggested timing of Minor wave C to complete was c.September/October. I had incorrectly envisaged an earlier completion - but it is obvious as you had predicted a major event late July.

However, in your MW 'Summary' you also stated :

"The anticipated drop in our market on Monday could either be the start of a much greater higher level market cycle drop or it could turn out to be a relatively small correction prior to a further continuation of the rally that started on the 6th of July. The future of the higher level pattern forming in our market will depend very much on whether the low of the 6th of July can hold or not."

Do I take that to mean that under Scenario 3, if the 6 July low is not taken out in this current correction, a rally may follow which may 'extend' Minute wave c and Minor wave B? However, if this occurs Rudy we may be running out of time to get to a wave 3 event by late July?

Under Scenario 3, if the 6 July does not hold, we continue south until a mighty wave 3 event in late July/early August, which from a timing point of view looks favorite.

Under Scenario 1 & 2 :

"we need to see whether or not the termination level of Minute wave i is taken out. If it is taken out then we are in Minute wave iii of Minor wave 3. If it not taken out then we are likely to still be forming a Zigzag for Minute wave ii. Minute wave iii would most likely be an impulse wave. If Minute wave iii is underway then we could expect it to terminate somewhere around the 4007 level based on a range of 161.8% of Minute wave i."

SPX has a target at 904, so the S&P has significantly further to fall than XJO.


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rdumas
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Tuesday, July 20, 2010 - 12:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

If you and I were in the same room equiped with pen and paper it would be really easy to explain but trying to discuss EW counts in writing can sometimes be confusing.

Referring to the updated status charts on pages 4 and 5 of my market wrap. The important key is what sort of 5 wave move the last rally was. Was it an impulse wave or a complex 5 wave corrective pattern? In scenario's 1 and 2 if it was an impulse pattern then it must be the first leg in a Zigzag (as I mentioned in my market wrap) and there would still be more of the rally to come. If it was a complex 5 wave corrective pattern then Minute wave circle ii completed and we are now in Minute wave circle iii. In the first case the start of Minute wave 1 would not be taken out whereas in the second case it would.

In scenario 3 if it was an impulse wave with no extensions then Minute wave circle c and Minor wave B would be complete and we would now be in Minor wave C. If it was an impulse wave with extensions then there we would not yet be in Minor wave C yet.

For the above reasons I said "The anticipated drop in our market on Monday could either be the start of a much greater higher level market cycle drop or it could turn out to be a relatively small correction prior to a further continuation of the rally that started on the 6th of July. The future of the higher level pattern forming in our market will depend very much on whether the low of the 6th of July can hold or not."

Now as you can imagine, if I am thinking that a major crash scenario will take place in the late July/early August period then that could be either a wave 3 of some kind or it could be a significant top that moves in the downward direction in large ranges. Either way it would not be a move that would be over very quickly which is why I mentioned the September/October period as a sensible sort of end period for a low.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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cat_lady
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Tuesday, July 20, 2010 - 12:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi rudy
film yourself with pencil and whiteboard and upload to utube with a link for the hard to explain in writing parts!
cheers
cat lady (we might have to change your name to valentino if you do!)


Without my morning coffee I might as well be a dog

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rdumas
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Tuesday, July 20, 2010 - 01:14 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Cat Lady,

Hehehehehe. Haaaa, if it were only that simple. The wonderful thing about face to face communications is that it is a two way interaction with both immediate verbal and visual feedback regarding any misunderstandings. All the filming and utube stuff that I could do would still not be as good as the face to face communications.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Tuesday, July 20, 2010 - 02:28 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I mentioned earlier that if that move up from the 6th July was an impulse wave for scenarios 1 and 2 it would mean that it would be the first leg of a Zigzag. We would therefore have to assume that there would be a corrective wave down followed by another impulse wave up.

Looking at the move down so far it would appear that we have completed that move down and have started the first wave up of the final impulse wave.



If this count is correct then sometime tomorrow we should get a strong move up in the third leg of that impulse wave.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Tuesday, July 20, 2010 - 05:03 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



....good idea cat lady! What about a Mr Squiggle pencil on Rudy's nose - it might make it easier to draw some Japanese Candles, Complex Correctives, a shed load of ABC's!https://forum.incrediblecharts.com/userscripts/forums/board-post.plx#

mr squiggle


You will be pleased to know Cat Lady that I am meeting the Great Rudy in person very soon ....

Back to serious business for 'newbies'- posts 3650 & 3652:

"The important key is what sort of 5 wave move the last rally was. Was it an impulse wave or a complex 5 wave corrective pattern?"

Q. I assume this means a 'completed' impulse wave or a 'non completed' complex 5 wave corrective pattern. Visually to me 5 clear waves can be seen. If however it was a complex 5 wave corrective what would that mean to the current pattern that has emerged?

"if that move up from the 6th July was an impulse wave for scenarios 1 and 2 it would mean that it would be the first leg of a Zigzag. We would therefore have to assume that there would be a corrective wave down followed by another impulse wave up....sometime tomorrow we should get a strong move up in the third leg of that impulse wave".

Q. At what level would such a third leg terminate? Will it take out 4465 high, then commence its fall south?

In consideration that this pull back is US driven, worthwhile to consider TA on US charts at present:

Trendlines. The short term trend down are indisputable and right now the direction is quite clear. The 20 day/5 minute, 40 day/hourly, and One Year /Daily are all downward.

Candles. Double Dragonfly Doji, rejected off the 200-day MA, then the big drop, then a bearish belt hold candle confirming the Dragonfly. Looks bearish & indicates indecision?

TA indicators all looking bearish: MACD, Money Flow, Slow Stochastic, RSI, Low Volume, etc


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billt
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Tuesday, July 20, 2010 - 05:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi again Rudy

Could the pattern on the xjo since 5 July be a simple 12345abc:

application/octet-streamXJO EW 200710
xjo ew 200710.ini (0.4 k)



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billt
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Tuesday, July 20, 2010 - 05:26 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

sorry mate, my glorious chart failed!

6th to 14th July waves 1-5
19 July 4345 Wave a
20 July Wave b (yet to complete?)


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rdumas
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010 - 08:21 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Re your questions below:

"Q. I assume this means a 'completed' impulse wave or a 'non completed' complex 5 wave corrective pattern. Visually to me 5 clear waves can be seen. If however it was a complex 5 wave corrective what would that mean to the current pattern that has emerged?"

Yes and no.For scenarios 1 and 2 it means a 'completed' impulse wave or a 'completed' complex 5 wave corrective pattern. As I said in my post in these 2 scenarios if it was a complex 5 wave corrective pattern it would mean that Minute wave circle ii had completed and we were now in Minute wave circle iii which in turn would mean that the trend would continue to be DOWN.

You will note that in my comments below that if it was an impulse wave then we would get a corrective pattern down followed by another impulse wave up. As indicated in my post 3652 yesterday we completed a corrective 3 wave pattern down and the first part of an impulse wave up). The price action on the US market last night will assure us of some more upward movement today as predicted. This clearly indicates that the Zigzag scenario that I spoke of is currently being played out to perfection. Don't you just love this Elliott Wave stuff?


"if that move up from the 6th July was an impulse wave for scenarios 1 and 2 it would mean that it would be the first leg of a Zigzag. We would therefore have to assume that there would be a corrective wave down followed by another impulse wave up....sometime tomorrow we should get a strong move up in the third leg of that impulse wave".

Q. At what level would such a third leg terminate? Will it take out 4465 high, then commence its fall south?

The move from the 6th July to the 15th July had a range of 283.3 points. The third leg (final impulse wave or ending diagonal) should take out the 4465 high and the range should have some Fibonacci relationship with the 283.3 point range. I usually work on wave equality so a possible target is 4628.5. Note that the high of the 21st June was 4622.

If that high of 4622 was taken out then the labelling for scenarios 1 and 2 would be incorrect because the range of Minute wave circle ii would be greater than the range of Minute wave circle i which is not permissible. So in order for those scenarios to remain valid, the Fibonacci relationship between legs 1 and 3 may be 61.8% or 78.6% or some other intermediate Fib relationship.

And finally to the last part of your question. Once that third leg of the Zigzag completed the we would start wave circle iii down which would well and truly take out the low of the 6th July. Depending on the strength of the move down you would expect it to move down at least 161.8% of the range of wave circle i.

The way things are turning out at present, the crash scenario that I have called for late July/early August will possibly coincide with this move down as we are rapidly approaching this time period. Either that or it will occur in the 3rd wave of wave circle iii.



I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010 - 09:34 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Regarding your post 19. I'm proud of you mate, you're starting to see the waves.

The following is a chart with an EW count that I shared with two of the Musketeers yesterday. One of the EW counts shown is the one you suggested.



The a and b labelling is one scenario and assumes that the 5 wave rally as an impulse wave. In this scenario once the abc corrective wave was completed we would get an impulse wave up to complete the higher level Zigzag pattern much along the same lines as discussed in my previous post.

The i and ii labelling assumes that the 5 wave rally was a completed 5 wave corrective wave and we were now heading down in a new impulse wave in the downward direction which would usher in a large decline.

Now we as analysts should always be aware that shifting to higher time frames effectively acts as a 'filter' of waves. Using the above time frame the move down from the top of the rally to label a appears to be a single wave in this time frame. In my previous post I was able to show you that in fact it was 3 wave move down.

Now remember I said that one of the biggest problems that an EW analyst faces is what I call 'level confusion'.

It is entirely possible that what I have seen in my previous post are the 3 subwaves making up wave a in the above chart. How will I be able to verify this?

In order to determine this we will have to look carefully today at what pattern is formed for the current rally that started yesterday. If it turns into a 3 wave move at the same level as the waves formed yesterday then we are forming wave b and the above count is correct. If we are forming an obvious impulse wave or ending diagonal at the same level as the previous impulse wave then we are forming a Zigzag mentioned in the previous post. The key to this is that we have to focus on what level patterns we are looking at. Often a corrective pattern following an impulse wave will terminate somewhere in the price range of the 4th wave of the preceeding impulse wave. In the above chart wave a has already gone beyond this level and wave c would go down further still. For that reason at this stage I am favouring the scenario in my previous post. We cannot however totally ignore this scenario.

I won't deal with the red labelling scenario in this post as I don't want to overload the minds of readers with information.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010 - 11:13 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

This will possibly be my last post this morning as I will be out for most of the day.

So far we appear to be moving in the direction of my Zigzag scenario. I suspect that the impulse wave we completed this morning is only the wave 1 of a larger impulse wave.



In that scenario this larger impulse wave would finally terminate to form Minute wave circle ii.


The only other possibility that I can see so far is if this impulse wave is part of a smaller Zigzag (one level lower than the Zigzag mentioned above) to form wave b in the scenario discussed in my previous post. Once this Zigzag terminated wave b it would then head down to about the same level as wave a terminated to form wave c.

Once wave c terminated we would then form another large impulse wave to finally terminate Minute wave circle ii.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010 - 11:35 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy

Received & understood:

It will be interesting to see if your third leg (final impulse wave or ending diagonal) takes out the 4465 high.

The Fibonacci relationship with the 283.3 point range gives fib targets @ 4486.8 (50%), 4520.2 (61.8%), 4567.8(78.6%), and 4628.5 which would form a neat Double Top before the crunch!

XJO & SPX are approaching the 4 week and 4 month downward trend lines and, if broken, should find support for your ‘third leg’

However, your Alt i & Alt ii are still very much in play.

The Revenue misses from US Reporting could easily worry the Street to send the markets down.

Difficult to call....


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gdd3
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010 - 02:54 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy and Billt...

Have been trying to upload this chart of the SPI200 for about one hour to highlight the slightly different 'structure' in its trading pattern compared to the XJO200 since the 4461 last Thursday evening high( another high after the XJO high of about 4465 just after noon that day as illustrated in Rudy's chart).

I think you will agree that you could argue that since the 4461(SPI) high this market has panned out a 5 wave impulsive move down compared to Rudy's XJO 'abc'. Now, I can come up with an alternative 'corrective' abc down on the SPI200 but am not as comfortable with this because of wave size relationships.

Moving on and you will note another difference in the suggested structure of the Futures vers Physical(SPI/XJO) and that is the move out from Tuesday's low. Again, because we had an extra after market leg(in this case a low) to add to the count the subsequent move up indeed does not mirror the 5 wave impulse that Rudy is highlighting on the XJO. In fact it looks clearly an 'abc' zig-zag to last night's high but of course we could have only completed an abc of what I am calling an 'abcde' to complete a B or (2).

So now moving out the the next bigger picture the question is still raised as Rudy is raising...are we in the process of the C-wave of an ABC from the 4461 SPI or the beginnings of a 3rd-wave which is going to have deeper repercussions for the perceived down move.





Cheers
Dolphin


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billt
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Wednesday, July 21, 2010 - 06:02 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin

Well done on getting your chart posted. It is a shame that the facility that Rudy uses (investools) is not a standard feature on IC. Hopefully it will become a standard option in the time ahead, as it would make this type of conversation a lot easier! (Colin – any idea when we could get this sort of additional software?)

I will leave it to the ‘Rud’meister’ to respond in his more considered EW manner. To a ‘newbie’ like me, your scenario(s) looks sound.

Interested to get Rudy's view on the distinctive 5 wave pattern that preceded this latest high @ 4435 - I was expecting a 3 wave move?

Currently both SPX & XJO are respecting the overhead downward trend line from the April high. If the ‘d e wave’ eventuated that overhead downward trend line would need to be broken. The Xjo has found it twice in last month and retreated. If it retreats again then the pattern of the last few days can easily be the wave i and ii of our imminent journey south.

This action is coming from the US, so I keep an eye on the SPX.

One item to note: If the SPX pulls back below 1063.32 that might confirm things considering the ‘Extreme Point Rule’. The pattern that is setting up looks very similar to that which occurred back at the market top in April. We had a big reversal, then four days of indecision on SPX (2 on XJO), then a break with prices moving beyond the intra day low that occurred on 27 April. After that a considerable drop. On the SPX we are at that potential point again. The Extreme Point on the SPX is 1063.32. We have 'intra day' flirted below 1063 but closed above it - one poor negative day might just do it?

On the XJO a very similar pattern is emerging with the Extreme Point at 4345.2, but we haven't troubled the number as yet.


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rdumas
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Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 10:51 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin and Bill,

Thank you both for your thoughts. I will respond to your posts later in the day as I have a rather busy day ahead of me with non market related activities once again.

Dolphin, thanks for that link to a site that will allow me to access charts for the SPI. I have often wondered where I could get free charts on SPI from. I will however spend most of my analysis on the physical index as it is the beast that I trade.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 02:34 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

First of all I thought that I would grant you your wish and have a look at the SPX. The following is my EW counts for scenarios 1 and 2.





As you can see it is quite similar to the same scenario's for the XJO. Note also the descending trend line keeping the waves trapped in its downward journey. Note that I have a "?" against Minuette wave (ii). By rights I should also have one against Minuette wave (i) and Minute wave circle ii also because like with the XJO I am still not entirely convinced that Minute wave circle ii is completed yet.

If we have a look at the recent price action on the SPX we see the following.




The key to the puzzle is the small 5 wave move up stuck in between the two 3 wave down moves. Is it the end of an old pattern or the beginning of a new pattern. I personally thing that it was the beginning of a new pattern and that the last 3 wave move down will stay a 3 wave pattern and that we will go up tonight on the S&P500 into a possible Minuette wave (iii). This would be on the basis that Minute wave ii is still not completed yet.

I know that it sounds like I am bullish and I don't want to give people the impression that I am bullish about the market. On the contrary I believe that we are going to see an extremely large move sometime in late July (which is quickly approaching) or early August. What I am purely pointing out is that both the US and the Australian market may have just a little bit more upside left in it to totally confuse market participants as much as possible.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 08:42 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Dolphin,

I know that a lot of people trade the SPI contract years ago. I used to do it too when I was trading the SPI futures. Unfortunately the patterns of the two indices are quite different because the SPI trades for around 20 hours (from memory) whilst the XJO only trades for about 6 hours. See the chart below for a comparison of the two indices over approximately the same time frame.




At this stage I have so much other stuff to do that I don't think that I'll start doing wave counts for the SPI.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 08:47 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Publishing Charts on IC

Oh by the way guys I believe that under the rules of the IC website we are required to remove the tradenames from all charts published that are not created by the IC software package. I occasionally forget but it is an easy thing to do. I use either Paint or Powerpoint to do this.

This is a great website that Colin provides for us so it is the least that we can do. Like Bill I look forward to the time that the IC software also has intraday capability.

(Message edited by rdumas on July 22, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 09:58 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Regarding your question "Interested to get Rudy's view on the distinctive 5 wave pattern that preceded this latest high @ 4435 - I was expecting a 3 wave move?"

If you look at my post 3365 you will note that I was suggesting that we were forming a Zigzag to complete Minute wave circle ii. We had the first impulse wave at the minuette level and then a 3 wave move down (at the minuette level) and now we are forming the last impulse wave at the minuette level to complete Minute wave circle ii.

What is shown in the chart below is the first two waves of that final impulse wave. The second wave is almost complete and should lead to another impulse wave. Minuette wave ii is either a Double Zigzag or a Double 3. If we don't get another impulse wave up tomorrow then I've got the wrong end of the stick and I'll have to go back to the drawing board.

Obviously to complete the higher level impulse wave we still need another impulse-Cor-impulse pattern.



(Message edited by rdumas on July 22, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 11:12 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Thanks for the explanations - and thank you for your SPX charts.

You are not alone in suggesting a rally on the SPX tonight. So lets see if your magic works!


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billt
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Thursday, July 22, 2010 - 11:50 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Have you heard of this one Rudy!

This is radical!

Some elliotticians will call this sacrilege, the so called "flash crash". Elliot waves predict herd mentality, and there's no way anyone can logically argue that the length of wave 1 was caused by herd mentality (fear). It took out 4 levels of support in the blink of an eye.

Put simply: The "flash crash", was caused by a 3 day sell-off in energy and commodities, which led up to stops being taken out in a few select stocks like PG. In the following minutes, electronic market orders were placed (instead of limit orders), and computers sold to the lowest bidder. What was lacking was panic.

I'm all for guidelines, and EW rules state "wave 4 must not interfere with the price action in wave 1", but the EW count was skewed by the flash crash.

Now I suspect, we have an extremely oversold market, due certain to Overly-bearish Elliotticians flawed technical analysis, backed by billions of dollars, being controlled by certain hedge funds.

If I'm correct: A powerful wave C starts tomorrow, and with it an explosive counter trend rally, which is now liable to over correct in the opposite direction. "A little knowledge is a dangerous thing"


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rdumas
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Friday, July 23, 2010 - 07:46 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Further to your last post. The trading world is overpopulated with traders who say that they practice EW analysis but "bend the rules" so that they can stick to their biased favoured scenario. These analysts will never succeed in their endeavours to learn EW analysis. There are many EW guidelines but very few EW rules. It's a simple as that. If the rule is broken then your EW count is wrong! Don't stuff around trying to convince yourself (not you Bill, I'm addressing the rule breakers) that it doesn't really matter that wave 4 intruded into the price range of wave 1 in an impulse wave because it only did so "on an intraday basis". Whether the breach was done on an intraday or any other period then the count is invalid! Leave your bias behind and get an EW count that is valid.

Guidelines on the other hand are "not rules" and are often broken.

I have to stress though that EW analysis will only work on a certain number of things like indices, commodities, exchange rates and some stocks. Whatever the particular entity that can be analysed using EW analysis it must meet the requirement that there is a broad enough range of participants that covers the complete range of investors so that the extreme elements in the range cancel themselves out and the "mean" herd mentality is the prominent driver in the pattern generated.

A relatively brief analysis of any stock will quickly tell you if EW analysis can be applied to it. Some can and some can't. When it works then use it. If it doesn't then move to another methodology.

(Message edited by rdumas on July 23, 2010)


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Friday, July 23, 2010 - 11:29 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

I should have posted my post 24 in inverted commas of course, but it was an odd assumption about the 'flash crash'! I have noted that many EW'ers on various sites seem to change the rules to suit themselves, so your comment: "If the rule is broken then your EW count is wrong!" is well understood.

Back to overnight action on the SPX:

Another 5 wave action on the SPX from 1065.25 to the intra day top of 1097.50. It looks as if we had a 'wave a' down to 1089.16 before commencing a final flurry to close @1093.67.

Your third leg (final impulse wave or ending diagonal) is currently trying to take out the 4465 high on the XJO, in a pattern not dissimilar to the SPX.

I assume you are still considering that the XJO will follow the Fibonacci relationship with the 283.3 point range gives fib targets @ 4486.8 (50%), 4520.2 (61.8%), 4567.8(78.6%), or 4628.5(100%) before the crunch! Is your favorite still the 100%?

SPX @1150 might be the target for a 100% equal wave length scenario? 1140 is the 61.8% fib from 26 April-1 July.


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rdumas
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Friday, July 23, 2010 - 11:53 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

As I will be unable to spend any time on the market over the week end, I am currently working on my weekend market wrap at this moment. I will send it out later today.

Yes the XJO and SPX are forming similar (but not the same) patterns. I suspect that the XJO may not give us the wave equality target because it would upset too many Elliott Wavers who have scenarios 1 and 2 in their favourites list. For my preferred scenario 3, it wouldn't matter at all.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, July 23, 2010 - 12:21 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Folks,

Due to family commitments this weekend I won't be able to produce a Weekend Market Wrap tomorrow. For that reason I have produced a slightly shorter one today. As it is within the size limitations of the IC website I have attached a copy for those who don't currently get the document.

application/pdf
220710 market wrap.pdf (409.6 k)



I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Friday, July 23, 2010 - 03:06 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

I was just having a look at ETF GOLD and notice that we are getting very close to becoming invalid on the count that I had on that stock. The price has been down to $130.19 and the problem level is $130. Once it drops below that level the count will become invalid.




I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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billt
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Saturday, July 24, 2010 - 03:19 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



hi Rudy

Thanks for the Market Wrap.

In respect to ETF Gold , I take more of a separate view of POG and a view on the $AUD. (refer your Post Number: 3647)

I feel that in this upcoming market crash POG could begin Wave 5 and run to usd$1350/80, and the AUD could easily come back to the mid 70 cents level. However, your count on the ETF is getting close to the invalid status as you say.

In respect to POG perhaps wave 3 could have terminated on 21 June. An ABC then formed with 7 July a, 14 July b, and we are in the final stages of completing c, and wave 4, ready for wave 5? 20 July may have been the completion?

Bullish targets for the SPX next week could be a 5 wave move with 1/2 @ 1131 (21 June high), a 3/4 @ 1150 (19 Jan high), and a high at 1190. However any piece of bad news will form the ultimate collapse from here on in...


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mastersl46
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Sunday, July 25, 2010 - 03:16 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi everyone,
This is to Rudy , Hey rudy!! Can the wave count for the move up from July 6 possibly be the C wave of the 2nd if scenario 1 & 2 were in place?
So - May 21 - June 21 = 3 wave A wave of 2nd.
June 21 - July 6 = Wave B
July 6 - ? = Wave C with the 3 wave corrective move finishing at 4360 the other day being a 4th wave & we are now finishing the 5th wave of Wave C.
The dates I mentioned a few days before (Aug 2) could be the high & not the low. The dates I have dont always go from high to low now , sometimes they are from high to high & low to low. I keep getting them the wrong way! So Aug 2 could be a high for the ASX 200.I had a date of July 21 for a crash but didn't seem to happen unless the move on July 16 was meant to be that crash for the S & P 500.
I have July 29 for the S&P 500 as a turning point which is looking pretty close to working out. So if it finishes up on small volume on Wednesday , this could be a turning point. If you are favouring a move down late July / August then this turning point would also favour this move.
Your favoured count is that we are in a B wave of a B wave & then a C wave to go down to finish the bigger B , then a larger C wave upwards to finish a 2nd or a larger B wave , is that correct?
When I'm trying to work the wave count, sometimes I say to myself "stuff it" about the larger wave count, lets just focus on the next move. But then its good to know the future ahead as well.
So could the move from July 13 to July 20 for the S&P 500 be a 4th wave of a C wave (starting July 2)? Seems to be in a nice channel as well. And the next move down could be a wave 1 of 3? The move from June 21 to July 2 on the S&P clearly looks like a 3 wave pattern is it not? Whats your view? Is there any EW count that says it can't be this?
Many thanks


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rdumas
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Monday, July 26, 2010 - 10:58 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Well unfortunately ETF GOLD dropped down to $129.68 and therefore has rendered my original wave count invalid. This calls into question what I thought may be a developing 5th wave to a higher high. The POG has reached a critical period in its pattern. If it bounces off that ascending trend line then we could get a rally. If however it falls through the bottom of the trend line then it could get into trouble.






There is no doubt in my mind that when the equities market falls into that hole that I anticipate in the very near future that the AUD will fall into the same hole. My only concern at this stage is what the POG will do. I will be watching what it does very carefully over the next few days because I truly believe that 'crunch time' is coming upon us very quickly. I should point out that the falling AUD would limit any 'rate of fall' that would occur if the POG did drop through the ascending trend line.

Andrew's cycle analysis has the medium term direction for ETF GOLD as down but admits that a short sharp rally is a possibility.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, July 26, 2010 - 02:27 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Bill,

Most of you would know that my favoured scenario has a Minor wave B in the process of being formed. The pattern for this wave appears to be a Flat pattern and hence would terminate somewhere in the region of Minute wave circle a as shown in the chart below.




Note that the above labeling for Minute wave circle c is incorrect as it must be an impulse wave or an ending diagonal and not a 3 wave move as currently labeled.

Another scenario that Andrew came up with which does have a 3 wave move I believe has a lot of merit. Ignore the level labeling as it is not consistent with the level labeling convention that I have used but look at the pattern that he is proposing.




Basically, Andrew's pattern is a Triangle rather than a Flat pattern. This pattern has merit for a couple of reasons. The first is that Randall's planetary lines have an extremely strong overhead resistance at the 4500 level so there is some question as to whether it will be possible for the XJO to actually get through and remain above that level.

Now whilst Andrew has a top for wave "c" as around the 2 ~ 3 August, it is likely to come a little bit earlier as the astrological transits become very negative starting from around the 30th July.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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rdumas
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Monday, July 26, 2010 - 03:11 pm:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Masterclass,

Sorry for taking so long to get to your post but I've been rather pre-occupied with non-market stuff lately. I will attempt to answer your questions below.

"Can the wave count for the move up from July 6 possibly be the C wave of the 2nd if scenario 1 & 2 were in place?
So - May 21 - June 21 = 3 wave A wave of 2nd.
June 21 - July 6 = Wave B
July 6 - ? = Wave C with the 3 wave corrective move finishing at 4360 the other day being a 4th wave & we are now finishing the 5th wave of Wave C. "


That is not the same EW count that most people have for scenario's 1 and 2. The more traditional counts are shown in my post 3608. That being said you could be correct and it could be tracing out a much larger Minute wave 2 than suggested in my post.

"The dates I mentioned a few days before (Aug 2) could be the high & not the low. The dates I have dont always go from high to low now , sometimes they are from high to high & low to low. I keep getting them the wrong way! So Aug 2 could be a high for the ASX 200.I had a date of July 21 for a crash but didn't seem to happen unless the move on July 16 was meant to be that crash for the S & P 500. "

I definitely would not consider the move on the 16th July on the SPX to be a crash. Regarding tops and bottoms, I also have found that these sometimes have a habit of reversing so that tops become bottoms and vice versa so I certainly wouldn't judge you harshly on your previous thoughts.

I have July 29 for the S&P 500 as a turning point which is looking pretty close to working out. So if it finishes up on small volume on Wednesday , this could be a turning point. If you are favouring a move down late July / August then this turning point would also favour this move.

I agree with that comment.

Your favoured count is that we are in a B wave of a B wave & then a C wave to go down to finish the bigger B , then a larger C wave upwards to finish a 2nd or a larger B wave , is that correct?

That is correct.

When I'm trying to work the wave count, sometimes I say to myself "stuff it" about the larger wave count, lets just focus on the next move. But then its good to know the future ahead as well.

We all do that. Nowadays when I find difficulty with the EW count at one level I will move out to a higher time frame so that I can get the context of the smaller pattern within the larger time frame. That will sometimes clear things up. Alternately, if you find yourself in the midst of a complex corrective wave pattern and you still want to trade short term then you can just focus on the next move. It really depends on what your trading goals are.

"So could the move from July 13 to July 20 for the S&P 500 be a 4th wave of a C wave (starting July 2)?"

It is a possibility.

"Seems to be in a nice channel as well. And the next move down could be a wave 1 of 3?"


Yes, assuming that your suggested wave count is correct.


"The move from June 21 to July 2 on the S&P clearly looks like a 3 wave pattern is it not? Whats your view?"

There is no doubt in my mind that it is a 3 wave move.

"Is there any EW count that says it can't be this?


You don't appear to be breaking any EW rules. There are heaps of potential EW counts. My posts since I've started this thread give you some of the main counts. Your count is just another one that can be added to the list.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

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mastersl46
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 12:07 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Rudy,
Thank you very much for the reply.
Yes my count is a bit different to Scenario 1 & 2 as they have a Wave 1 & 2 already pencilled in for the 3rd or C wave.The Wave 1 from June 21 - July 6 just doesnt have the right look & feel to it for that count to be true but thats my opinion.
This is the count I am trying to propose -
May 21 = Bottom of Wave 1 or A (lets say its Wave 1 for the bearish sentiment & my way of explaining this).
May 21 - June 21 = Wave A
June 21 - July 6 = Wave B
July 6 - Now = Finishing Wave C of the larger 2
Of this Wave C - July 6 - 7 = Waves 1 & 2.
July 7 - 15 = Wave 3
July 15 - 19 = Wave 4
July 19 - now = Waves 1, 2 & 3 of Wave 5 finished. (all finished on Aug 2)
After Aug 2 is Wave 1 of 3.
This count coincides well with this proposed S&P 500 count.
April 26 - June 8 = Wave 1
June 8 - 21 = Wave A
June 21 - July 2 = Wave B (Nice look 3 wave move)
July 2 - Now = Finishing Wave C
Of this Wave C = July 2 - 6 = Waves 1 & 2.
July 6 - 13 = Wave 3
July 13 - 20 = Wave 4
July 20 - Now = Waves 1,2 & 3 of Wave 5 of larger C of larger 2. (all finished before June 30)
After June 30 is Wave 1 of 3
Hope that all makes sense!!
In these scenarios , the ASX 200 was ahead in the wave count but the S&P 500 caught up on June 21 & they now move in unison.
I can understand that the crash on May 6 would disable the first count of Wave 1 for S & P but I remember 2 years ago where a Wave 4 clearly broke the bottom of Wave 1 in October 2008 & was still classified as a Wave 5 of the major 3rd. (around Mid to late Oct bottom of Wave 1 was 8600 pts for DOW, market went to 8800 as a 4th wave & still finished as a 5th wave) The ASX 200 also broke its wave 1 at the same period.
Also when I just sit back & just look at the S & P 500 & not try to analyse it too much, I can clearly see volatility up until June 8 , then expanding Waves from then on suggesting 2 different wave cycles (1 & 2)
It looks even more wavy & moving when I have one of my friend special cigarettes & then look at it!! (just jokes)
Just want to ask what your thoughts are on these counts & also what trading platform do you use to post your charts. Do you know of any simple charting platforms where I could draw some letters & numbers on it & post everything I write. I would post all this on charts but the CFD provider i'm with doesnt have letters or numbers in its art tools.
Only if you have a lot of spare time on your hands , could you please put the scenario i wrote here on to a chart and post it, to show other people what I am trying to convey.
Many thanks for your time, insight & replies.
Lee







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rdumas
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Tuesday, July 27, 2010 - 09:48 am:Edit Post Delete Post Print Post    View Post/Check IP (Moderator/Admin only) Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only) Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)



Hi Mastersl46,

Sorry about calling you the wrong nick name last time. I'm not sure where that came from.

It would be good if you could learn how to post charts with comments as it is very difficult to follow EW discussions without them.

I use Incredible Charts software for timeframes that are daily, weekly or monthly. Unfortunately I have to move to other charting packages for my intraday work. On many occasions you need to have intraday charts in order to see the formation of the waves in greater detail. There are many of these free third party packages available on line.

One of the difficulties with all charting packages that I have used is that they aren't really developed to use advanced annotation capabilities. Hence I use a combination of 'Paint' and 'Powerpoint' to annotate my charts.

The IC software package is good because you can save your charts in a .png format which can then be used to import into packages like Paint and Powerpoint for advanced annotation purposes. For those packages that don't have the 'save' facility, it is very easy to do a 'screen print' to your clip board and then 'paste' it into either Paint or Powerpoint.

I will deal with your other requests later in the day as I have much to do in other areas.


I've given you my view based on what I know now. In another 5 minutes that view might change because of additional information. It's the best I can do - Rudy

 
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